固定收益 | 动态跟踪 | 以中短信用为基本盘，二永做波段：信用 | 2025-11-03 | | --- | --- | | 债市场周观察 | | | 止盈压力缓释，关注转债交易性机会：可 | 2025-10-28 | | 转债市场周观察 | | | 关注存单利率变化：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-10-21 | 央行恢复国债买卖，不只是一次性利好 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 04 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.c ...

澜起科技 688008.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 DDR 产品迭代推动业绩同比高增长 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益为 1.87/2.99/4.00 元（原预测为 1.98/2.82/3.76 元， 主要调整了营业收入、毛利率及费用率等假设），维持可比公司 25 年平均 80 倍 PE 估值，给予 149.60 元目标价，维持买入评级。 风险提示 DDR5 市场份额提升不及预期；新产品进展不及预期；公司盈利不及预期对估值产生负 面影响。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,286 | 3,639 | 5,546 | 7,602 | 9,846 | | 同比增长 (%) | -38% | 59% | 52% | 37% | 30% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 472 | 1,413 | 2,254 | 3,606 | 4,817 | | 同比增长 (%) | -67% | 199% | ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ 有色/新能源等板块 ——资产配置模型月报 202511 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 03 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月报 | 2025-11-01 | | --- | --- | | 202511 | | | 大类资产仓位平稳，行业策略推荐有色/科 | 2025-10-11 | | 技等板块：——资产配置模型月报 202510 | | | 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征： | 2025-09-29 | | ——"2+1"思维在大类资产中的应用初 | | | 探 | | | 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 | 2025-09-17 | | 基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路 | 2025-08-18 | | 全天候策略需要择时吗：——风险均衡策 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18 CNY based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure but is expected to benefit from industry recovery and the growth of new brands. The revenue growth is primarily driven by e-commerce, while the franchise channel faces challenges [2][10]. - The company has made significant investments in brand rejuvenation and new brand development, which has led to increased sales expenses. Despite a decline in profitability, the overall operational quality remains good, with a strong cash position [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,536 million CNY in 2023 to 5,256 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 11.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 911 million CNY in 2023 to 683 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 919 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decline from 78.6% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 76.3% by 2027 [4]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 25.8% in 2023 to 16.2% in 2025, then gradually improve to 17.5% in 2027 [4]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.20 CNY, 1.38 CNY, and 1.61 CNY, respectively [3][11]. - The report indicates a significant increase in sales expenses, which is a key factor in the decline of profitability [10]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 31, 2025, is 15.98 CNY, with a 52-week high of 22.19 CNY and a low of 14.93 CNY [5]. - The report highlights the company's relative performance against the market, indicating a mixed performance over different time frames [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on brand rejuvenation and the establishment of a multi-brand matrix to explore new growth opportunities amid a weak retail environment [10]. - Recent acquisitions of international brands are in the investment phase, which is expected to contribute to future growth as the industry recovers [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent US-China talks have led to a potential recovery in demand, which is expected to positively impact the chemical industry [7] - The energy storage sector is driving an optimistic outlook for lithium battery demand, particularly benefiting the phosphate rock segment due to its rigid supply characteristics [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is facing challenges due to the US-China trade disputes, but recent negotiations have shown signs of easing tensions, which may stabilize demand [7] - The global energy storage battery shipments are projected to exceed 500 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 60% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies that are well-positioned in the green polyester industry, such as Wankai New Materials (301216) [3] - Companies in the pesticide formulation sector, like Runfeng Co. (301035), Guoguang Co. (002749), and Hailier (603639), are also recommended for purchase due to their lower exposure to trade disputes [3] - The report highlights potential recovery in the petrochemical and chemical sectors, suggesting investments in Sinopec (600028), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Wanhua Chemical (600309), and Huayi Group (600623) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18 CNY based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure but is expected to benefit from industry recovery and the growth of new brands. The revenue growth is primarily driven by e-commerce, while franchise channels face challenges [2][10]. - The company has made significant investments in brand rejuvenation and new brand development, which have led to increased sales expenses, impacting profitability [10][11]. - The company has acquired two international brands, CERRUTI 1881 and KENT&CURWEN, which are currently in the investment phase, contributing to short-term losses but expected to enhance growth in the long term [10][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,536 million CNY in 2023 to 5,256 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 11.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 911 million CNY in 2023 to 683 million CNY in 2025, before recovering to 919 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to decrease from 78.6% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 76.3% by 2027 [4]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.20 CNY, 1.38 CNY, and 1.61 CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [3][11]. - The company’s sales expenses are expected to increase significantly, impacting overall profitability despite revenue growth [10][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 31, 2025, was 15.98 CNY, with a 52-week high of 22.19 CNY and a low of 14.93 CNY [5].

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2025 年三季报，我们维持 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 1.43/1.62/1.82 元，根据可比公司维持给予 25 年 22 倍 PE，对应目标价 31.46 元，维持"买入"评 级。 益丰药房 603939.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 盈利稳健提升，开拓增量市场 —益丰药房 2025 年三季报点评 风险提示 医保和药品比价政策、应收账款回款不及时、行业竞争加剧、盈利能力下滑等风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 22,588 | 24,062 | 25,616 | 28,114 | 30,907 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,055 | 2,204 | 2,566 | 2,881 | 3,231 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.0% | 7.3% | 16.4% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 83.88 CNY based on a 36x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve high growth in its annual guidance, with a projected net profit for 2025 ranging from 165 to 172 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.6% to 28.6% [10]. - The integration of the acquired company, Lany, is progressing better than expected, with anticipated contributions to profits starting from 2026 [10]. - The company is positioned as a leading provider of integrated solutions in the data center sector, with increasing market share among major cloud service providers and AI server clients [10]. - The company's long-term growth potential in the AI era is considered undervalued, with strong performance expected in its automotive and communication segments [10]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.33 CNY, 3.22 CNY, and 4.15 CNY respectively, reflecting upward revisions primarily due to improved revenue and gross margin forecasts in the communication and automotive sectors [11]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 231.9 billion CNY - 2024: 268.8 billion CNY - 2025: 361.3 billion CNY - 2026: 479.3 billion CNY - 2027: 551.4 billion CNY - The company’s net profit is expected to grow from 10.95 billion CNY in 2023 to 30.24 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 19.5% to 28.8% [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.83 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in profitability, with a projected EPS of 1.66, 1.65, and 1.86 CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting adjustments in sales volume for composite pipe products [3]. - The company is strategically positioned in the nuclear fusion sector, which is expected to contribute to future profit growth, particularly through its involvement in the ITER project and the development of key materials [10]. - The controlling shareholder has increased their stake in the company, indicating confidence in future performance and growth potential [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a net profit of approximately 1.26 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.73% [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 12.05 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10.4% compared to the previous year [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 26.2% in 2023 to 30.6% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5]. Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.623 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.9% [5]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is 1.935 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 6.7% [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 24.94 billion CNY, with a current share price of 25.52 CNY [6].

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 29.92、36.57、45.46 亿元（原为 33.91、42.16、 51.53 亿元，调整收入、毛利率及费用率等），可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 51 倍，目标价 87.72 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、主要客户销量低于预期、机器人业务进展低于预期、产品价 格下降幅度超预期。 持续推进全球化，预计机器人和液冷业务 是增长点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 19,701 | 26,600 | 32,611 | 39,263 | 46,967 | | 同比增长 (%) | 23.2% | 35.0% | 22.6% | 20.4% | 19.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,476 | 3,420 | 3,386 | 4,140 | 5,147 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.2% | 38.1% | -1.0 ...