| | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -3.79 | -9.39 | 10.4 | 9.23 | | 相对表现% | -2.55 | -11.03 | 1.76 | -6.14 | | 沪深 300% | -1.24 | 1.64 | 8.64 | 15.37 | | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | --- | --- | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 韩潇锐 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | | | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 富创精密 688409.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 买入（维持） | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the copper industry is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with copper prices likely to rise due to increased demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers. The company's expansion projects are anticipated to enhance its profitability and resource self-sufficiency [4][12][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with a smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. It has developed a comprehensive copper industry chain covering resource exploration, smelting, and processing [20][21]. Copper Product Segment - The report indicates that the copper price is expected to rise, and there is a marginally positive outlook for smelting fees, which could enhance profit elasticity. The company is set to benefit from the expected increase in copper prices and improved smelting fees due to supply constraints [4][12][10]. - The Mirador copper mine expansion is projected to increase the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs, while the completion of the green intelligent copper-based new materials industrial park is expected to expand smelting capacity [4][12]. Other Segments - The company is focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary, Tongguan Copper Foil, has been listed separately and is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the AI and electronic communication sectors [4][12]. - The precious metals segment, particularly gold, is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, supported by deteriorating dollar credit conditions [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027. Based on a comparable company PE of 16X for 2026, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set [5][7].

Amer 三季度业绩优异 多品牌战略带来更多 经营韧性 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司之前公告以及双十一活动情况，我们调整公司盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.69、5.29 和 6.02 元（原预测为 4.80、5.54 和 6.21 元），参考 可比公司，给予 2025 年 22 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 112.89 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港 币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：消费终端复苏缓慢、运动服饰行业潮流变化及竞争加剧等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 62,356 | 70,826 | 78,573 | 86,489 | 95,347 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.2% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 15,367 | 16,595 | 18,143 | 20,123 | 22,545 | | 同比增长 ( ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, the US real GDP recorded a high growth rate of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 expectations reaching 4%[6] - The divergence in opinions regarding the US economic outlook is increasing, with recession risks becoming more pronounced[10] Employment and Consumption Dynamics - The US job market is showing signs of accelerated decline, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, indicating a near-recession performance[11] - Despite the deteriorating job market, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.7% to Q2 GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 2.74% in August[19][24] Income and Wealth Effects - Nominal disposable income growth for US residents remains stable at around 4.6%, supported by a 5% increase in wage income and an 8.5% rise in government transfer payments[28][31] - The wealth effect from rising stock prices has led to a historical high in household net worth, reaching $197 trillion in Q2 2025, with a ratio of net worth to disposable income at 782%[35][40] Structural Consumption Resilience - High-income households are primarily driving consumption resilience, with their spending growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households, which saw a cumulative increase of only 7.9% compared to 16.7% for high-income households since 2018[62][65] - The concentration of wealth among high-income groups is evident, with the top 1% holding nearly 50% of their assets in stocks and mutual funds, while low-income households are more reliant on real estate[45][48] Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of consumption resilience is contingent on the continuation of the technology cycle and its impact on income and wealth effects[69] - Risks include potential job losses in large enterprises, which could exacerbate the decline in consumer spending if high-income job losses occur[77][81]

Market Strategy - The market is expected to remain in a volatile state, with a focus on defensive strategies and opportunities for low-cost positioning [2][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index is holding above 3900 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext are at the lower end of the fluctuation range since September [8] - The technology sector, particularly the STAR 50 index, has fallen below its fluctuation range, indicating a weak market sentiment [8] Industry Strategy - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to undergo a valuation recovery followed by performance-driven growth, with a focus on gradual positioning [3][8] - The sector has seen a significant improvement in capital returns, particularly in non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, machinery, and some consumer goods [8] - The consumer staples sector is showing signs of performance improvement, with expectations for a performance bottom in 2026 [8] Thematic Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector is gaining a "growth" attribute due to financial characteristics and AI demand, enhancing its appeal [4][8] - Precious metals are becoming increasingly attractive as global central banks diversify reserves amid rising U.S. fiscal deficits and weakening dollar credit [8] - Industrial metals are benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and increased demand from AI and new energy sectors [8] - New demand drivers in small metals, particularly lithium, are expected to lead to a cyclical reversal [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is transitioning from "single functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating enhanced consumer resilience [4] - The beauty industry is no longer reliant on a single traffic window, with narratives around channel efficiency strengthening [4] - Leading brands exhibit stronger resilience, with a positive outlook on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Double 11 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - Beauty and personal care sales reached 991 billion yuan, growing by 11.65% [8] - Instant retail sales surged to 670 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 138.4% [8] Market Dynamics - Tmall leads in high-end beauty sales, while Douyin is becoming a significant platform for domestic brands [8] - The top five beauty brands on Tmall include Proya, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, with Proya maintaining the top position for three consecutive years [8] - Douyin's beauty sales rankings show Han Shu at the top, followed by Proya and L'Oréal [8] Company Performance - Leading brands like Up Beauty, Ruo Yu Chen, and Mao Ge Ping have shown impressive performance during the Double 11 event [8] - Up Beauty's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, with significant growth on both Tmall and Douyin [8] - Ruo Yu Chen's sales saw a staggering 35-fold increase year-on-year, with Douyin sales growing by over 100% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with exports expected to become a new growth driver [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.68, 2.04, and 2.40 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.44 RMB and 24.62 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 11 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 179,204 in 2023 to 448,685 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5] - Operating profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 3,806 in 2023 to 23,173 in 2027, with significant growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to rise from 5,308 in 2023 to 24,318 in 2027, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 5.3% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain a strong market share, with sales growth outpacing the industry average, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [10] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with exports anticipated to become a significant source of revenue and profit growth [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and lowers the target price to 48.79 CNY from the previous 51.85 CNY [3][5] Core Views - The company is expected to face temporary pressure on its core products in 2025, with external demand likely remaining at a low point in 2026. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.29 CNY, 2.32 CNY, and 2.77 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 3.70 CNY and 4.40 CNY for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The report highlights that external demand is expected to improve sequentially, indicating a potential bottoming out of performance. The company maintains a competitive advantage during the adjustment period, with its products performing better than the market average [10] - The report emphasizes the company's focus on core products and its competitive advantages, suggesting that as the demand stabilizes, the company could see a recovery in growth driven by market share gains [10] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is 10,289 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.9%. The revenue is expected to recover to 11,584 million CNY by 2027, with a growth rate of 12.5% [8] - The gross margin is projected to be 75.0% in 2025, slightly improving to 76.7% by 2027. The net profit margin is expected to be 27.8% in 2025, increasing to 29.8% by 2027 [8] - The report provides a comparison of the company's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21X based on the 2026 EPS [12]

Market Strategy - The current market is expected to experience limited index growth, with a judgment of "fluctuating up and down, sideways consolidation, slightly strengthening" [7] - Mid-cap blue chips are anticipated to rise again after four years, presenting investment opportunities in manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [7] - Related ETFs include 中证 500ETF (159922) and 中证 1000ETF (512100) [7] Chemical Industry - Global chemical supply is expected to contract due to high costs and aging equipment, leading to a structural adjustment in the supply chain [7] - European chemical sales account for approximately 13% of the global market, but high energy costs and punitive carbon taxes are causing continued capacity exit [7] - Domestic production progress has slowed, and with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the chemical sector is likely to enter a new prosperity cycle [7] - Related stock: 万华化学 (600309, Buy) [7] - Related ETF: 化工 ETF (159870/516020) [7] Financial Technology - Hong Kong's "FinTech 2030" strategy marks a shift from application-focused development to a more systemic, forward-looking, and ecological approach [7] - This strategy emphasizes the collaborative development of data, AI, resilience, and tokenization, providing valuable insights for the high-quality development of mainland financial technology [7] - Related ETFs include 金融科技 ETF (159851/515720/159103) and 香港证券 ETF (513090) [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - The report anticipates sustained growth in gaming and advertising revenues, driven by key titles such as "Honor of Kings World" and "Little People’s Country" contributing to revenue growth in 2026 [3][9] - The estimated IFRS net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at 226 billion, 261 billion, and 297 billion RMB respectively, reflecting adjustments based on updated assumptions for gaming, advertising, and payment services [3][9] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method is used, resulting in a target price of 664.22 HKD [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 609,015 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9.82% [4] - The operating profit for 2023 was 152,784 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 52.76% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 115,216 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 38.79% year-on-year [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is reported at 12.60 RMB [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 48.13% in 2023 to 57.90% by 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - The report highlights that the revenue from value-added services reached 959 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [9] - Gaming revenue for Q3 2025 was 636 billion RMB, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [9] - Marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 362 billion RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2% [9] Future Projections - The report projects a revenue increase to 754,344 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.25% [4] - The operating profit is expected to reach 247,023 million RMB in 2025, with a growth rate of 23.45% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 225,981 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 16.44% [4]