天士力 600535.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 | 业绩符合预期，加强创新驱动 | | --- | 天士力 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持盈利预期，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.75、0.89、0.95 元， 参考可比公司平均市盈率，我们给予公司 2025 年 28 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 21.00 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 市场竞争加剧风险；兼并整合风险；政策监管风险；原材料价格风险；商誉减值风 险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,674 | 8,498 | 9,069 | 9,723 | 10,248 | | 同比增长 (%) | 0.4% | -2.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,228 | 1,076 | 1,280 | 1,551 | 1,685 | | 同比增长 (%) | 867.0% ...

研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。 关税政策不确定性。 降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 宏观经济 | 专题报告 降息按下快进键 ——海外札记 20250825 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 美国通胀风险未能阻碍市场上行：——海 | 2025-08-19 | | --- | --- | | 外札记 20250818 | | | 美国通胀风险越来越难对市场构成趋势性 | 2025-08-17 | | 压制 | | | 宏观变量将继续助推外围市场上行：—— ...

业务结构优化，"AI+数据"新曲线可期 ——迪安诊断 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 2025 年中报，我们下调收入并上调期间费用率预测，调整 2025-2027 年每股收 益预测为 0.23/0.80/1.00（原预测 25-27 年为 0.70/1.01/1.41）元，根据可比公司给 予 26 年 23 倍 PE，对应的目标价为 18.40 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 资产、信用减值损失风险；医保政策风险；ICL 行业外包不及预期的风险；盈利能力下 滑风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 13,408 | 12,196 | 12,231 | 12,838 | 13,598 | | 同比增长 (%) | -33.9% | -9.0% | 0.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 842 | (31) | 247 | 804 | 993 | | 同比增长 (%) | ...

珀莱雅 603605.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 中报展现多品牌韧性 拟发行 H 股拉开国际 化新篇章 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据中报，我们小幅调整公司盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 4.44、5.13 和 5.88 元（原预测分别为为 4.56、5.36 和 6.06 元），DCF 目标估值 112.65 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱、新品拓展不及预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,905 | 10,778 | 11,784 | 12,926 | 14,156 | | 同比增长 (%) | 39.5% | 21.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,503 | 1,890 | 2,141 | 2,475 | 2,837 | | 同比增长 (%) | 42.1% | 25.8% | 13.3% | 15.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the media industry [4] Core Insights - The recent policy document from the State Council emphasizes the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, which is expected to significantly boost the AI industry chain, similar to the "Internet +" policy in 2015 [7] - The report anticipates a fourfold increase in AI penetration rate within three years, aiming for 70% by 2027 and 90% by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential in AI user base [7][8] - The demand for AI computing power is projected to surge, with major players like Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, and Huawei expected to benefit from this trend [7] - The report highlights the strategic importance of AI applications, suggesting that new "killer apps" may emerge as AI penetration increases [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on AI applications in two key areas: AI + video/image (Kuaishou-W, Meitu) and AI + recruitment (BOSS Zhipin-W, Tongdao Liepin, Beisen Holdings) [2] - Major companies to watch include Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou-W, Baidu Group-SW, and ByteDance [2] - Companies involved in data and copyright in the industry include People’s Daily, Zhejiang Shuzhi Culture, Vision China, and Zhongwen Online [2] Policy and Market Dynamics - The policy document outlines a three-step strategy for AI penetration, with specific targets for 2027 and 2030 [8] - Key areas of focus include AI integration in science and technology, industrial development, and consumer quality enhancement [8][9] - The report emphasizes the need for a supportive environment for AI applications, including the establishment of national AI application pilot bases [7][8] AI Ecosystem Development - The report discusses the importance of fostering an open-source ecosystem for AI, which is seen as crucial for rapid advancements in domestic AI models [7] - It highlights the need for enhanced data supply, intelligent computing power coordination, and talent development to support AI growth [12]

公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4,185 | 3,696 | 5,294 | 6,286 | 7,362 | | 同比增长 (%) | -19.0% | -11.7% | 43.2% | 18.7% | 17.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,706 | 1,283 | 2,002 | 2,360 | 2,569 | | 同比增长 (%) | -26.5% | -24.8% | 56.1% | 17.9% | 8.9% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 1,125 | 945 | 1,508 | 1,779 | 1,936 | | 同比增长 (%) | -23.0% | -16.0% | 59.6% | 17.9% | 8.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 15.62 | 13.12 | 20.94 | 24.70 | 26.87 | | 毛利率(%) | 88.5% | 87.9% | 92.9% | 89.6% | ...

投放加大导致短期盈利低于预期 看好双品 牌驱动未来成长 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据中报，我们小幅调整公司盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 1.07、 1.44 和 1.83 元（原预测为 1.11、1.44 和 1.85 元），DCF 目标估值为 43.39 元，维 持"增持"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧、终端消费低于预期、费用投放超预期等 丸美生物 603983.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月26日） | 41.83 元 | | 目标价格 | 43.39 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 56.36/19.79 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 40,100/40,100 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 16,774 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% ...

建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 新藏铁路影响深远，区域水泥投资机会可 期 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 市场部分观点认为新藏铁路带来的资本市场投资机会或已过去，更偏短期情绪。但我们 的观点在于，长期来看铁路建设以及后续对于区域经济活力的激发，将持续拉动水泥需 求，由于南疆水泥市场格局较好，可展望价格的进一步上涨，提升企业利润弹性，带来 落实到基本面的投资机会。建议关注在新疆有产能布局的水泥企业，如青松建化 (600425，未评级)、天山股份(000877，未评级)、海螺水泥(600585，未评级)。 风险提示 新疆水泥需求增长不及预期、行业供给端超预期放量、原燃材料价格上涨、假设条件变 化影响测算结果。 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 26 日 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 玻纤仍需"反内卷"，落实效果或可期待： | 2025-07-17 | | --- | --- | | ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 地产走弱冲击有限，城市更新有望接力： | 20 ...

⚫ 下游需求低于预期；产品价格下降风险 ⚫ 考虑到研发费用阶段性较高，调整 25、26 年归母净利润预期为 13.01、15.16 亿元 （原为 13.06、15.16 亿元），新增 27 年预期为 17.59 亿元，参考可比公司 25 年 43 倍 PE，给予目标价 39.99 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 积极开拓民用航空及低空产业，打造公司 下一增长点 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4,780 | 5,072 | 5,884 | 6,816 | 7,888 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.5% | 6.1% | 16.0% | 15.8% | 15.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,212 | 1,357 | 1,533 | 1,789 | 2,077 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.0% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 16.1% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.54 CNY, based on a 47 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [3][5]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in gross profit margins, with a second-quarter gross margin of 17.08%, up 1.38 percentage points from the previous quarter. This increase is attributed to enhanced operational strategies and R&D capabilities [11]. - The company is actively expanding its recycling capabilities in the rare earth materials sector, which is expected to reduce costs and increase profitability as demand for magnetic materials grows [11]. - The company has achieved breakthroughs in its surface coating technology, which is expected to further enhance product margins [11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 6,688 million CNY in 2023 to 17,882 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36.6% [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 564 million CNY in 2023 to 1,399 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.41 CNY in 2023 to 1.02 CNY in 2027 [9]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 254.2% increase over the past 12 months [6]. - The stock price as of August 25, 2025, was 36.36 CNY, with a 52-week high of 36.36 CNY and a low of 9.87 CNY [5].