亨斯迈欧洲 MDI 装置意外停产，有望催动 MDI 价格反弹 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 景气度有望复苏的 PVC 相关企业包括：中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业 (600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)。 MDI 龙头：万华化学(600309，买入)。景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工 中相关标的包括：川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等。草酸 行业中，建议关注：华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新 材(301216，买入)。 风险提示 | 印度取消 BIS 认证及反倾销税，利好 PVC | 2025-11-23 | | --- | --- | | 等产品出口增长 | | | 化工景气修复与储能高增长预期持续，继 | 2025-11-16 | | 续看好 MDI、PVC、磷化工等子行业 | | | 看好储能需求预期提升下磷矿石景气上行 | 2025-11-13 | | 潜力 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表 ...

煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 产地动力煤中长期合同价格落地，关注行 业左侧布局机会 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251124-20251130） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）当前焦煤价格水平低于动力煤，部分焦煤股处于破净状态，且近期焦煤 价格持续下跌的背景下，焦煤股价跌幅较小，反映出市场对焦煤股的悲观预期已经较为 充分地反映在股价之中，建议关注焦煤板块左侧布局的机会；（2）产地动力煤中长期合 同价格落地，且产地价格水平高于港口价格水平，后续产地中长协机制有望减少产地煤 价的波动，相关标的：陕西煤业(601225，未评级)、中煤能源(601898，未评级)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 30 日 看好（维持） 蒋山 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn 0755-82819271 李晓渊 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn 021-6332 ...

Market Outlook - December is expected to start strong, with a market trend of initial gains followed by potential declines in a volatile environment[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index's 5-day moving average has formed a death cross with the 30-day moving average, indicating short-term resistance[6] Investment Strategy - Focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the consumer sector, which is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn[6] - Key sectors to watch include AI-driven new materials and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics[6] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected consumer recovery, unclear demand scenarios, and uncertainties surrounding the sustainability of trade-in subsidy policies[5] ETF Recommendations - Suggested ETFs include cash flow ETFs and sector-specific ETFs for consumer goods, beverages, and home appliances, which are expected to perform well in the current market[6]

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to remain strong towards the end of the year, but a significant style shift may occur, with mid-cap blue chips likely to rise again, presenting investment opportunities in the consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors of mid-cap blue chips [3][16]. Market Analysis - The market has stabilized and rebounded, with previous adjustments deemed short-term in nature. A recent debt extension plan from a real estate company has drawn market attention, indicating a shift from "potential bottoming" to "value recovery pricing" post-extension. Future debt restructuring and debt-to-equity swaps may occur, with the bond market facing continued negative impacts. If this spreads to the stock market, risk preferences may converge towards mid-cap blue chips, highlighting their stability and growth potential. The stock market is expected to remain strong, but the focus of investment will shift towards mid-range stocks [4][17]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has consistently anticipated a tech and dividend-driven trend. Looking ahead, the end of the risk-on style is expected, with future investment opportunities in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market, which has been dormant for four years, is poised for a resurgence, and market corrections may present good entry points [5][18]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities lie in mid-cap blue chips across three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been quiet for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, with supply constraints likely to drive prices up. Focus on mid-sized companies in sectors such as liquor, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [6][19]. 2. The cyclical sector is experiencing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention should be given to new materials and strategic minor metals (like antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are seeing improved supply-demand dynamics, alongside traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [6][19]. 3. The manufacturing sector is moving away from "dream narratives" to embrace "realization." Investment in manufacturing should shift from mere "story speculation" to verification of orders and revenues. Focus on sectors with ongoing performance verification expectations, such as communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery [6][19]. Thematic Investments - Key areas of focus include: - **Artificial Intelligence**: Despite some skepticism about AI's future, the market's rational assessment of industry development is expected to lead to upward adjustments in investor expectations. Key areas include edge consumer electronics, robotics, computing power, and software applications [7][20]. - **Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution**: Domestic wafer fabs are expected to expand next year, and the capitalization of domestic storage chip leaders is progressing. Amid international tensions, domestic semiconductor materials are likely to accelerate development, with a focus on domestic computing power, chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and domestic substitutes for semiconductor materials [7][20]. - **Aerospace and Satellites**: There are differing views on the satellite industry’s progress next year. Successful launches of reusable rockets are anticipated to significantly boost industry development. Additionally, the IPO progress of industry leaders is expected to accelerate, with opportunities in satellite constellations, satellite tenders, commercial rockets, and terminal applications [7][20]. - **Solid-State Batteries**: The market remains attentive to the progress of solid-state battery projects. The acceleration of the industrialization process is evident, with the equipment/materials sector entering an order-driven phase, and demonstration vehicle timelines converging to 2025-2027. Focus on core companies in the supply chain [7][20]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: Supply constraints and structural demand growth are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, with attention on price-increasing varieties in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The implementation of self-discipline measures against "involution" in copper smelting is expected to alleviate supply-demand contradictions between the mining and smelting sectors, potentially stabilizing smelting fees [8] - Major copper mines are expected to resume production, with mid-term mining output likely to exceed smelting expansion, creating upward pressure on smelting fees [8] - High demand in downstream sectors is anticipated to boost copper consumption, leading to a scenario where both copper prices and processing fees rise simultaneously [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the recent announcement by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association to control new copper smelting capacity and address unsustainable structural contradictions in the industry [8] - The self-discipline measures include a reduction of over 10% in copper production capacity for 2026 and the establishment of a supervision mechanism to prevent malicious competition [8] Mining Sector - The Grasberg copper mine is set to resume large-scale production in Q1 2026, with expected output growth continuing into 2027, potentially reaching 726,000 tons [8] - The Cobre Panamá mine is also expected to restart, with negotiations ongoing with the Panamanian government [8] Demand and Pricing - The report notes that the global upgrade of power grids and the rise of clean energy and AI data centers are expected to drive copper demand [8] - The anticipated alleviation of structural contradictions between the mining and smelting sectors may lead to a simultaneous increase in copper prices and processing fees [8] Investment Recommendations - For the copper smelting sector, it is recommended to focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) and Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) [8] - In the copper mining sector, attention is drawn to Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and other companies with significant resource reserves and expansion potential [8]

有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 30 日 看好（维持） 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 用电高增有望延续，火电增速由负转正： | 2025-11-23 | | --- | --- | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.11.17- | | | 2025.11.21） | | | 长协电价预期上修，现货市场建设加速： | 2025-11-09 | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.11.03- | | | 2025.11.07） | | | 火电业绩持续高增，行业持仓已至低点： | 2025-11-02 | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.10.27- | | | 2025.10.31） | | 公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 港口煤价逐步走低，输配电价新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of production capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][32] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a significant reduction in breeding sows, with the number decreasing to 39.9 million heads by the end of October 2025, a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [9] - October saw a substantial increase in pig slaughtering, with 38.34 million pigs processed, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [9] - The average price for market pigs dropped to 12.27 yuan/kg in October, down 11% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment for the industry [9][40] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices averaging 2329.8 yuan/ton, up 2.17% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3107.43 yuan/ton, up 1.04% week-on-week [21][40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with grain prices on an upward trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][32] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion, presenting investment opportunities in leading companies [3][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry in China [5]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to boost sales in the U.S. real estate chain, particularly in home appliances and power tools by 2026. The domestic subsidy effect is slowing down, making leading companies more stable. The long-term focus remains on overseas expansion, with companies that diversify their production capacity being favored [3][7]. - Leading companies exhibit higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, making them preferred choices for stable investments. Recommended stocks include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual [3]. - The export market holds potential, with expectations of a valuation switch by 2026, particularly for Stone Technology [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance are expected to explore new growth avenues, with Anfu Technology being highlighted [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies with higher operational efficiency and overseas production capabilities, which are expected to perform better under pressure from demand and cost [3][7]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of white goods production, with a total of 30.18 million units produced in December, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.1%. The report anticipates that leading companies will gain market share despite challenges [7]. - The cleaning appliance sector is experiencing a trend of market concentration, with the top two companies increasing their market share significantly, indicating a shift towards leading brands [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is exploring new growth points in value-added services by partnering with Keda Nengtong to develop community-based new energy services, focusing on sectors such as automotive, home furnishings, retail, and services [2] - The company has seen significant growth in its liquor business, with a year-on-year increase of over 88% in six trial regions, generating revenue of 190 million [2] - The company is also expanding its community charging business, with over 600,000 charging sockets operational across more than 5,000 communities, serving over 100 million users [2] - The "Zero Resident" cleaning robot has been deployed in 17 projects across major cities, with plans to scale to 1,000 units, enhancing efficiency and cost savings [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 42,612 million in 2023 to 52,727 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 292 million in 2023 to 1,977 million by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery after a decline [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.09 in 2023 to 0.59 in 2027 [7] - The gross margin is expected to decline from 20.5% in 2023 to 17.0% in 2027, indicating pressure on profitability [7] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock is set at 6.83 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11X for 2026 [8] - The current stock price is 6.58 HKD, suggesting a potential upside [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.4 CNY based on a projected 46 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [3][10][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.67 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 107 million CNY, reducing losses by 9.45% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 64.5% to 4.25 billion CNY, with a net profit loss of 10.42 million CNY, marking a 74.8% reduction in losses [2]. - The report highlights that the growth in revenue is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of integrated business, with expectations for future growth to hinge on advancements in AI and international market expansion [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 11.983 billion CNY, 13.274 billion CNY, and 14.242 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 74 million CNY, 395 million CNY, and 492 million CNY [5][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 15.3% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2025, before slightly recovering to 14.6% in 2026 [5]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from -5.2% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [5]. Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on integrating AI technology into its financial services, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the domestic market and expand its presence in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [9]. - The report notes that the company has become a leader in the domestic financial technology sector, with significant growth potential in international markets [9].