Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 117.52 [4][6] Core Views - The company's FY2Q2025 revenue reached RMB 236.5 billion (+5.2% YoY), slightly below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 239.4 billion, while adjusted net profit was RMB 36.5 billion (-9.1% YoY), slightly above Bloomberg consensus of RMB 35.6 billion [1] - The company continues to optimize its business environment, reduce merchant costs, and enhance user experience, leading to stable profitability and significant shareholder returns through buybacks [1] - Taotian Group's revenue grew by 1.4% YoY to RMB 99 billion, with adjusted EBITA of RMB 44.6 billion (-5.3% YoY), driven by increased user investment and improved monetization potential [1] - Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increased by 7% YoY to RMB 29.6 billion, with adjusted EBITA up 89% YoY to RMB 2.7 billion, driven by strong growth in AI-related revenue [1] - International Digital Commerce revenue grew 29% YoY to RMB 31.7 billion, with strong performance in cross-border businesses [1] - Cainiao's revenue increased by 8% YoY to RMB 24.6 billion, supported by cross-border logistics services [1] - Local Services revenue grew 14% YoY to RMB 17.7 billion, with narrowed losses due to improved operational efficiency [1] - Digital Media and Entertainment revenue declined 1% YoY to RMB 5.7 billion, with reduced losses driven by advertising growth and content investment efficiency [1] - The company repurchased USD 4.1 billion worth of shares in FY2Q25, reducing total shares outstanding by 2.1% [1] Business Segment Analysis Taotian Group - Revenue: RMB 99 billion (+1.4% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 44.6 billion (-5.3% YoY) [1] - GMV growth was offset by a decline in AOV, while CMR revenue grew 2.5% YoY to RMB 70.4 billion [1] - User growth: MAU reached a record 944 million, with 88VIP users exceeding 46 million (+50% YoY) [1] - Organizational restructuring: Integration of domestic and international e-commerce under a unified business group [1] - Outlook: GMV is expected to grow steadily, with monetization potential from full-site promotion and service fees [1] Cloud Intelligence Group - Revenue: RMB 29.6 billion (+7% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 2.7 billion (+89% YoY) [1] - Public cloud revenue grew double-digit YoY, with AI-related revenue growing triple-digit for five consecutive quarters [1] - The company launched the Tongyi Qianwen 2.5 AI model, reducing API call rates to improve cost-effectiveness [1] International Digital Commerce - Revenue: RMB 31.7 billion (+29% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 2.9 billion [1] - Strong growth in cross-border retail, with AliExpress and Trendyol driving performance [1] - International wholesale revenue grew 9% YoY to RMB 6.1 billion [1] Cainiao - Revenue: RMB 24.6 billion (+8% YoY), adjusted EBITA: RMB 60 million [1] - Focus on building a highly digitized global logistics network and enhancing cross-border e-commerce synergies [1] Local Services - Revenue: RMB 17.7 billion (+14% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 400 million [1] - Improved operational efficiency and order growth in Ele.me and Amap [1] Digital Media and Entertainment - Revenue: RMB 5.7 billion (-1% YoY), adjusted EBITA: -RMB 200 million [1] - Reduced losses driven by advertising growth and content investment efficiency [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts FY2025-2027 revenue at RMB 10,036/10,916/11,831 billion and adjusted net profit at RMB 1,512/1,715/1,919 billion [4][6] - The company's valuation is estimated at RMB 2,073.8 billion, with a target price of HKD 117.52 per share [4][6] - Taotian Group is valued at RMB 1,352.1 billion using a 9x PE multiple for FY26 [8] - Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at RMB 195.5 billion using a 24x PE multiple for FY26 [66] - International Digital Commerce is valued at RMB 315.1 billion using a 2.0x PS multiple for FY26 [69] - Cainiao is valued at RMB 15.4 billion using a 12x PE multiple for FY26 [43] - Local Services is valued at RMB 150.3 billion using a 2.0x PS multiple for FY26 [12] - Digital Media and Entertainment is valued at RMB 45.5 billion using a PS multiple and market capitalization approach [46]

有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 累计同比下跌 25.2%（2024/12/26） 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 W1W3W5W7W9W11W13W15W17W19W21W23W25W27W29W31W33W35W37W39W41W43W45W47W49W51 37城商品房成交面积 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 （万平米） 图 9：本周 12 个二线样本城市商品房成交面积环比增长 图 10：本周 21 个三线样本城市商品房成交面积环比下降 24.7%，累计同比下跌 31.4%（2024/12/26） 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 W1W3W5W7W9W11W13W15W17W19W21W23W25W27W29W31W33W35W37W39W41W43W45W47W49W51 二线城市商品房 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 成交面积（万平米） 数据来源 ...

chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 行业 计算机行业 核心观点 2 计算机行业动态跟踪 —— 字节加速AI落地、小米、理想"All in AI" 国家/地区 中国 浦俊懿 021-63325888*6106 执业证书编号：S0860514050004 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 执业证书编号：S0860524090002 字节加速 AI 落地、小米、理想"All in AI" 看好（维持） 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 目 录 一、科技企业彰显"All in AI"决心，算力需求持续强劲.....................................4 风险提示........................................................................................................7 图表目录 3 1.1 政策大力支持、多家企业纷纷"All ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Shandong Publishing with a target price of **15.60 RMB** based on a 2025 P/E multiple of 15x [3][109] Core Views - Shandong Publishing is a leading publishing and distribution company in Shandong Province, with a core focus on textbook and supplementary materials, while actively exploring diversified business layouts [2][3] - The company has a complete industry chain covering publishing, distribution, printing, and material trade, with innovative businesses such as digital publishing, study tourism, smart education, and media integration [2][32] - From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from **9.767 billion RMB** to **12.154 billion RMB**, with a CAGR of **5.62%**, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased from **1.544 billion RMB** to **2.376 billion RMB**, with a CAGR of **11.37%** [2][40] Business Performance Textbook and Supplementary Materials - The textbook and supplementary materials business has shown steady growth, with publishing revenue CAGR of **10.55%** and distribution revenue CAGR of **7.18%** from 2019 to 2023 [2][75] - The student population in Shandong Province is stable, with **101 million** permanent residents in 2023, ranking second in China, which supports the growth of the textbook business [2][52] - The proportion of middle and high school students in the K12 population increased from **41.1%** in 2016 to **43.6%** in 2022, which is expected to drive demand for supplementary materials [2][54] General Books - The general book market has been relatively weak, with a CAGR of **-2.8%** from 2019 to 2023, but the company's general book publishing and distribution business grew at a CAGR of **3.45%** during the same period [2][88] - In 2023, the company's market share in book retail was **1.39%**, and it has been actively promoting online sales through digital transformation [2][116] New Business Layouts - The study tourism business grew rapidly, with revenue increasing by over **60%** in the first half of 2024 [2][119] - The company is developing smart education projects, such as the "Homework + Learning Diagnosis Big Data Feedback" project, which integrates textbook publishing with big data technology [2][123] - The company is also exploring new service scenarios in bookstores, such as "Senior Citizen University" and "Xinhua Study Room" [97][126] Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2023, the company's gross margin remained stable at **36%-39%**, while the net margin increased from **15.8%** to **19.5%** [68][70] - The company has consistently increased cash dividends, with the dividend payout ratio rising from **43.25%** in 2019 to **49.19%** in 2023 [45][73] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of **1.957 billion RMB**, **2.177 billion RMB**, and **2.314 billion RMB** in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of **0.94 RMB**, **1.04 RMB**, and **1.11 RMB** [3][25] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of **6.9%**, **4.3%**, and **4.2%** from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins remaining stable at around **37.6%-37.8%** [106][108]

孙怡萱 sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 居民购房更加关注实得面积 | 2024-12-23 | | 中央经济工作会议强调稳楼市 | 2024-12-17 | | 上海政策效果持续性强 | 2024-12-10 | 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 ⚫ 第 52周房地产板块指数弱于沪深 300 指数，弱于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为-4.9%。沪深 300 指数报收 3981.03，周度涨幅为 1.4%；创业板指 数报收 2204.90，周度涨幅-0.2%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2225.78，周度涨幅为 -3.5%。 ⚫ 中央政策方面。全国住房城乡建设工作会议提出 2025 年要大力实施城市更新谋划 实施一批城市更新改造项目。地方政策方面。桂林、淮南市、北海市等对住房公积 金政策进行了优化，包括取消异地购房提取限制、提高租房提取额度、降低首付比 例等；襄阳市、成都双流区等提供了购房补贴；太原市出台措施规范房地产 ...

本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现，未 来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投 资的收入产生不良影响。那些涉及期货、期权及其它衍生工具的交易，因其包括重大的市场风险，因此并不 适合所有投资者。 提示客户及公众投资者慎重使用未经授权刊载或者转发的本公司证券研究报告，慎重使用公众媒体刊载的证 券研究报告。 传真： 021-63326786 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 东南亚国家中，越南可能首当其冲。2024 年 11 月《金融时报》指出，虽然特朗普在最近的 总统竞选期间没有提到越南，但他 2019 年接受福克斯新闻网采访时曾称越南是"最恶劣的 贸易实施者"，并表示"越南对我们的利用甚至比中国更严重"。从累计贸易差额来看， 2022-2024 年（均截至当年 10月）越南占美国贸易差额的比例一共上升了 2.1 个百分点，远 超其他东南亚国家。 BEC 口径下，如果仅考虑商品（相对的是服务） ...

乘联会预估 12 月行业销量同环比继续增 长，问界 M9 大定突破 20 万辆 核心观点 ⚫ 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，近期较多车企及重点新能源车型销量表现亮眼，预计后续汽车以旧换 新政策对车市的拉动效果将持续释放；2025 年具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面 领先的新势力企业将继续扩大市场份额；预计部分央国企通过自身改革及加强对外合作 等，实现困境反转。建议持续关注部分汽车行业央国企及华为产业链、小米产业链、T 链、智驾产业链及机器人产业链公司。 建议关注：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、长安汽车、中国重汽、广汽集团、宇通客 车；新泉股份、银轮股份、岱美股份、拓普集团、经纬恒润、爱柯迪、保隆科技、精锻 科技、贝斯特、瑞鹄模具、上声电子、双林股份、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛 西威、科博达、星宇股份、三花智控、继峰股份、上海沿浦、福耀玻璃等。 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 中性 （维持） | | 国家 / 地区 | ...

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2012/022012/062012/102013/032013/072013/112014/042014/082014/122015/052015/092016/022016/062016/102017/032017/072017/112018/042018/082018/122019/052019/092020/022020/062020/102021/032021/072021/112022/042022/082022/122023/052023/092024/022024/062024/10 造纸及纸制品业:产成品存货（亿元） 机制纸及纸板制造:产成品存货（万吨）（右轴） ⚫ 宏观经济增速放缓、终端需求下滑幅度超预期的风险：若欧美或国内宏观经济增速发生较大 波动，则木浆需求将受到较大影响，木浆价格具备下跌风险；若终端需求下滑幅度超预期， 则成品纸价也将存在下跌风险，造纸企业盈利存在大幅波动的风险。 Tabl e_Disclai mer 分析师申明 买 ...

数据来源：wind，东方证券研究所 二、全球 AI 产品用户持续增长，AI 应用落地前景可期 7 而从移动端 APP 的访问量看，前 10 应用的访问频次较 Web 访问相差一个数量级左右，而前 20 的应用中，也有 4 款产品访问量环比下降，不如 Web 端稳定；此外，上榜的应用主要以对话机器 人和智能助手为主，说明目前大模型在文本生成、搜索、个人助理等实用场景方面的表现被认可， 而 C 端娱乐等应用尚未成为主流。 2） Applovin：公司 24Q3 总收入达到了 12.0 亿美元，同比增长了 39%，超过预期的 11.3 亿美 元。其中，软件平台部门的收入增长尤为显著，达到了 8.35 亿美元，同比增长了 66%； 24Q3 净利润为 4.34 亿美元，每股收益 1.25 美元，也超出市场预期。公司人工智能驱动广告 技术软件 AXON 的成功是业绩大幅提升的重要因素。 我们认为，在大模型落地的过程中，各类实用性工具以及垂直场景应用对用户而言可以发挥实际 价值，日益成为用户刚需，客户访问数和使用粘性持续提升。不过，从变现角度而言，我们注意 到，各类通用型工具由于竞争激烈，货币化程度不高，而垂直应用则有着 ...