Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - Alibaba's core e-commerce business remains stable and shows positive growth, while its cloud business is entering a high-growth cycle driven by AI demand [7][9] - The company has exceeded expectations in its latest quarterly results, with revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan (+6.6%) and adjusted net profit of 298.5 billion yuan (+22.2%) [7] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on integrating AI with cloud services and its core e-commerce operations, with a projected revenue growth for FY2026-2028 [9][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY4Q25, Alibaba achieved revenue of 2364.5 billion yuan, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 2379.1 billion yuan, but adjusted net profit of 298.5 billion yuan exceeded expectations [7] - The Taobao and Tmall Group reported revenue of 1013.7 billion yuan (+8.8% YoY) and adjusted EBITA of 417.5 billion yuan (+8.4% YoY) [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue reached 301.3 billion yuan (+17.7% YoY), driven by public cloud growth and AI-related revenue [7] Business Segments - Taobao Group's GMV growth is expected to align with the overall e-commerce market, with a stable market share [7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group is positioned to benefit from the AI boom, with significant investments in infrastructure [7] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% YoY, while the logistics segment faced a temporary decline due to business adjustments [7] Shareholder Returns - In FY25Q4, Alibaba repurchased 51 million shares for a total of 600 million USD, with a total of 11.97 billion shares repurchased in FY25 [8] - The company declared a regular dividend of 0.13 USD per share and a special cash dividend of 0.12 USD, totaling 4.6 billion USD for the fiscal year [8] Valuation and Forecast - The report projects FY2026-2028 revenues of 10642 billion yuan, 11748 billion yuan, and 12725 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1696 billion yuan, 1849 billion yuan, and 1955 billion yuan respectively [9][11] - The estimated market value of the company is 30954 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 176.86 HKD [9][24]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 27 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | | --- | --- | | 如何看待未来资金面：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-05-19 | | 察 | | | 短期可适当做陡曲线，长端以震荡思路对 | 2025-05-12 | | 待：固定收益市场周观察 | | 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与 ...

新能源业务快速成长，持续聚焦双轮驱动 战略 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 1.57、2.15、2.71 元（原 25-26 年预测分别 为 1.69、2.09 元，主要调整了营业收入、毛利率和费用率），根据可比公司 25 年 21 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价 32.97 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.74 | 16.04 | -13.79 | 80.83 | | 相对表现 | 2.92 | 13.52 | -11.37 | 74.23 | | 沪深 300 | -0.18 | 2.52 | -2.42 | 6.6 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | --- | --- | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.c ...

鹏鼎控股 002938.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年05月23日） | 27.87 元 | | 目标价格 | 33.63 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 44.66/24.68 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 231,856/230,549 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 64,618 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 电子 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 26 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -5.53 | -5.36 | -34.76 | -1.66 | | 相对表现% | -5.35 | -7.88 | -32.34 | -8.26 | | 沪深 300% | -0.18 | 2.52 | -2.42 | 6.6 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | --- | --- | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The company's mixed AI strategy is driving significant performance growth and diversification [1] - The projected earnings per share for fiscal years 25/26, 26/27, and 27/28 are $0.13, $0.15, and $0.18 respectively, with an upward revision in revenue forecasts [2][10] - The target price is set at HKD 15.97 based on a comparable company PE valuation of 15.44 times for 2025 [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - For FY23A, the company reported revenue of 56,895 million, with a year-on-year decline of 8%. Revenue is expected to grow to 69,108 million in FY24A, reflecting a 21% increase [4] - Operating profit for FY23A was 2,037 million, down 24% year-on-year, but is projected to rise to 2,195 million in FY24A, an 8% increase [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for FY23A was 1,041 million, a decrease of 35%, with a forecasted increase to 1,415 million in FY24A, a 36% growth [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 16.3% for FY26E and FY27E, while net margin is projected to improve from 1.8% in FY23A to 2.5% in FY27E [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 18.6% in FY23 to 26.7% in FY27 [4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has solidified its global leadership in the smart devices sector, with a 24% market share in personal computers, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase [9] - The infrastructure solutions business has shown strong growth, with a 63% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching 145 billion [9] - The AI server business is also experiencing rapid growth, with a 68% increase in revenue from liquid cooling solutions [9]

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 固本培元，由守转攻可期 ——小家电推荐观点更新 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 一季报家电普遍超预期，后续家电内销有望持续受益政策拉动，结构上 K 线分化，高端 定位和性价比皆有不错表现，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待；4 月白电出口稳健增长，指引新兴市场潜力，后续对美出口扰动也有 望缓解。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议 关注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；推荐海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口优质 企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；推荐短期受益国 补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议关注石头 科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)。 风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑；5、行业竞争格局超预期恶化。 报告发布日期 2 ...

业绩阵痛期，成长主线清晰 ——康辰药业 24 年报&25 一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年报，我们下调营业收入，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.84/1.14/1.40 元（原 25-26 年预测为 0.90/1.29 元）。根据可比公司估值水平，给 予公司 2025 年 46 倍 PE，对应目标价为 38.64 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 主要在售产品的市场竞争风险、创新药研发进度不及预期的风险、假设条件变化影 响测算结果的风险、医药行业政策风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 920 | 825 | 969 | 1,141 | 1,289 | | 同比增长 (%) | 6.1% | -10.3% | 17.4% | 17.8% | 12.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 143 | 39 | 217 | 285 | 337 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.8% | ...

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 固本培元，由守转攻可期 ——小家电推荐观点更新 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 一季报家电普遍超预期，后续家电内销有望持续受益政策拉动，结构上 K 线分化，高端 定位和性价比皆有不错表现，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待；4 月白电出口稳健增长，指引新兴市场潜力，后续对美出口扰动也有 望缓解。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议 关注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；推荐海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口优质 企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；推荐短期受益国 补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议关注石头 科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)。 风险提示 1、家电国内以旧换新政策效果不及预期；2、原材料价格及汇率大幅波动；3、对美出口 关税大幅上升；4、海外需求超预期下滑；5、行业竞争格局超预期恶化。 报告发布日期 2 ...

业绩阵痛期，成长主线清晰 ——康辰药业 24 年报&25 一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年报，我们下调营业收入，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.84/1.14/1.40 元（原 25-26 年预测为 0.90/1.29 元）。根据可比公司估值水平，给 予公司 2025 年 46 倍 PE，对应目标价为 38.64 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 主要在售产品的市场竞争风险、创新药研发进度不及预期的风险、假设条件变化影 响测算结果的风险、医药行业政策风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 920 | 825 | 969 | 1,141 | 1,289 | | 同比增长 (%) | 6.1% | -10.3% | 17.4% | 17.8% | 12.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 143 | 39 | 217 | 285 | 337 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.8% | ...

业绩阵痛期，成长主线清晰 ——康辰药业 24 年报&25 一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年报，我们下调营业收入，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.84/1.14/1.40 元（原 25-26 年预测为 0.90/1.29 元）。根据可比公司估值水平，给 予公司 2025 年 46 倍 PE，对应目标价为 38.64 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 主要在售产品的市场竞争风险、创新药研发进度不及预期的风险、假设条件变化影 响测算结果的风险、医药行业政策风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 920 | 825 | 969 | 1,141 | 1,289 | | 同比增长 (%) | 6.1% | -10.3% | 17.4% | 17.8% | 12.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 143 | 39 | 217 | 285 | 337 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.8% | ...