Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - Electricity consumption growth remains high, but there are signs of pressure on long-term contract electricity prices due to falling coal prices and high inventory levels [7] - The utility sector is viewed as a defensive asset, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [7] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity attributes to support the complex new power system [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, a recovery from October's 4.2 percentage point decline, with a cumulative growth of 1.0% for January to November 2025 [10] - The growth rates for different sectors in November 2025 were: primary industry +7.9%, secondary industry +4.4%, tertiary industry +10.3%, and residential consumption +9.8% [10] - The report anticipates that December 2025 will see electricity consumption growth maintain around 5-6% due to ongoing growth in sectors like charging services and information technology [10] Electricity Prices - From December 19 to December 26, 2025, the average clearing price in Guangdong's electricity market was 308 RMB/MWh, up by 3.9% year-on-year [21] - In contrast, Shanxi's average market price dropped to 179 RMB/MWh, down 54.9% year-on-year [21] Coal Prices - Port coal prices continue to decline, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 672 RMB/ton, down 4.4% week-on-week [24] - The report notes a divergence in pit coal prices, with Shanxi's Q5500 coal price stable at 550 RMB/ton, while Inner Mongolia's price fell by 1.7% [24] Hydrology - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was 171 meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 meters, while inflow rates decreased by 13.7% year-on-year [31] Market Performance - The utility sector index rose by 0.8% but underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.9% [40] - Among sub-sectors, gas showed the highest weekly increase at +2.6%, while hydropower decreased by 0.8% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, citing improved business models and growth potential [7]

Economic Growth Insights - The US GDP for Q3 2025 showed a significant growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[7] - Personal consumption contributed 3.5% to GDP growth, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter, indicating strong consumer spending[7] - The final sales of domestic private purchasers recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand despite economic uncertainties[7] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a slight contraction of -0.3%, with non-residential construction and residential investment declining by -6.3% and -5.1%, respectively[7] - AI-related investments remain a key driver, with equipment and intellectual property investments growing at 5.4%, although this is a significant drop from earlier in the year[7] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated at approximately 0.6% for Q3, but the growth rate is expected to slow down[7] Employment and Economic Risks - The job market shows signs of significant weakness, with a three-month moving average of new jobs at only 22,000, indicating a potential recession[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a level historically associated with economic downturns[7] - Risks of inflation rebounding and the economy slipping into recession are highlighted as major concerns for future growth[4]

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 生猪再现结构性短缺，悲观预期有望修复 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 助力未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498， 买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，若 本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标 的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物(300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价 上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发 (601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科 (000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶 段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现，相关标 的：乖宝宠物(301498，未评级)、中宠股份(002891，未评级)、佩蒂股份 ...

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]

风险提示 宏观经济波动影响下游用铜需求风险、铜冶炼"反内卷"措施落地不及预期风险、中期 铜冶炼扩产进度超预期风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 26 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 铜精矿长单加工费敲定，冶炼端悲观预期 靴子落地 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 | 金银新高背后，投资节奏或随隐波而分 | 2025-12-24 | | --- | --- | | 化：——黄金行业动态跟踪 | | | 金铜铝铁权益滞后商品的现象或将改变： | 2025-12-22 | | —有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 51 | ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 沪指七连阳，中盘蓝筹强者恒强 朝闻道 20251226 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 市场策略 沪指七连阳，轻指数重结构 风格策略 中盘蓝筹强者恒强 行业策略 煤炭：焦煤价格如期反弹，关注配置机会 主题策略 人形机器人：推进大脑进化，量产爬坡有望加速 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓、海外煤价大幅下跌、订单执行效果低于预期、产品降价风险、研发进度及产业化不及 预期等。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 26 日 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时： 朝闻道 20251224 2025-12-23 沪指三连阳，依旧震荡：朝闻道 20251222 2025-12-21 冬藏蓄势等贝塔，防守亦有阿尔法：朝闻 道 20251217 2025-12-16 ⚫ 本周沪深三大指数四连阳，沪指七连阳，但整体涨幅有限，呈现温和放量状态。站 在当下我们认为随着上 ...

海关统计挖机出口加速，行业健康发展的 确定性上升 ——机械行业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们看到挖掘机 11 月出口台量加速增长，反映景气度上升。从出口国家来看，出口台量 的增长主要是结构性的，反映我国工程机械竞争力加强，有利于提升未来出口的确定 性。此外我们也观察到来自于二手机的出口的拉动较大，我们预计二手机的出口有利于 国内保有量的利用率上升，有利于行业长期健康增长。我们认为市场对行业健康改善的 预期将上升，也将带来风险评价的下降，利好中盘蓝筹公司的投资机会。部分相关标 的：恒立液压(601100，未评级)、柳工(000528，未评级)、中联重科(000157，买入)、 徐工机械(000425，未评级)。 风险提示 宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、海外高利率拖累需求、海外贸易摩擦加剧、原材料价 格上涨拖累企业盈利 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326 ...

产业落地高速增长，Agent 能力开放有望带 动云持续高增 ——字节原动力大会点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 （1）我们看好具有硬件-研究-模型-应用场景全栈 AI 路径的科技大厂，相关标的：阿里 巴巴-W(09988，买入)、谷歌(ALPHABET)-A(GOOGL.O，未评级)。 （2）看好多模态相关产品，兼容 B/C 端用户，商业化场景明确、增长确定性高。建议关 注：快手-W(01024，买入)、美图公司(01357，买入)。 （3）重视其他具备模型能力的厂商及相关产业链，以及受益于底模能力迭代、下游应用 场景体验改善，相关标的：腾讯控股(00700，买入)、同道猎聘(06100，未评级)、北森 控股(09669，未评级)。 风险提示 AI 技术迭代不及预期、AI 应用落地不及预期、AI 商业化变现不及预期 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 项雯倩 | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | | xiangwenqian ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 金银新高背后，投资节奏或随隐波而分化 ——黄金行业动态跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫权益端：建议关注资源储量较大、中期铜矿持续扩产存在增量预期的紫金矿业 (601899，买入)，矿产金产量持续改善， 业绩或加速上行的赤峰黄金(600988，买 入)。其他标的：中金黄金(600489，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级) 。 风险提示 国内外宏观经济变化；关税影响预期与产业链稳定性；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 021-63326320 | | 金铜铝铁权益滞后商品的现象或将改变： | 2025-12-22 | ...

报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 债市波动加大 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | 低利率，破局——2026 年债市展望 | 2025-12- ...