固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | 利差压缩之后，利率仍存突破机会 利率债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 7 月挖掘机会在"小众"：信用债市场周 观察 2025-07-07 适当牺牲流动性挖收益：2025 年 7 月小品 种策略 2025-07-03 利差压缩行情或延续：固定收益市场周观 察 2025-07-01 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 徐沛翔 xupeix ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing equity-driven market trends, particularly focusing on the financial and technology sectors as key areas for investment [4][7]. - The current bullish market sentiment is driven by improved public confidence stemming from enhanced grassroots governance capabilities, which has positively influenced market emotions and risk appetite [4][7]. - The convertible bond market's fundamental logic remains unchanged, with a long-term perspective supporting the investment rationale for convertible bonds, particularly those with strong credit quality and low volatility [4][12]. Group 2 - The report notes that from June 30 to July 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25%, indicating a strong correlation between the stock market and convertible bonds [9]. - The trading volume of convertible bonds significantly increased to 647.66 billion, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 1.21% and the parity center increasing by 2.6% to 100.6 yuan [12]. - The report highlights that high-rated, large-cap, and low-priced convertible bonds performed well, while small-cap and high-priced bonds showed relative weakness [12].

奶牛淘汰或边际加速 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 牧场端，我们建议关注优然牧业(09858，买入)，公司是规模最大的牧场企业，有望受益 奶价反转带来的吨奶利润提升以及奶牛公允价值回升，报表利润将明显修复。建议关注 头部牧场现代牧业(01117，未评级)。 乳企端，建议关注天润乳业(600419，未评级)。建议关注伊利股份(600887，买入)、蒙 牛乳业(02319，买入)，当前奶价低位，乳制品终端竞争仍然激烈，头部乳企份额受损； 伊利蒙牛都将受益奶价回升带来的竞争格局好转及喷粉损失下降。 风险提示 银行或头部乳企对牧场开放贷款、奶牛去化速度不及预期。 食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 08 日 看好（维持） | 叶书怀 | yeshuhuai@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517090002 | | 姚晔 | yaoye@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524090006 | | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*606 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 7 月挖掘机会在"小众" 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 信用债市场周观察 | | --- | | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | ⚫ 信用债周观点：7 月挖掘机会隐藏在小众的品种、小众的期限、小众的主体当中。 回顾 6 月信用债行情，短端下沉依然是稳定的策略，高等级难有超额但低等级被持 续挖掘，保持中等久期还可获得可观资本利得。目前低等级 1Y 已经逼近乃至刷新近 一年低点，但 5Y 相比于去年 7~8 月还有 10bp 左右空间。7 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 "反内卷"强化供给侧国家治理预期，有 望推动实现更高质量增长 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ "反内卷"旨在治理企业低价无序竞争，引导提升产品品质，推动国家治理预期抬 升再进一步。一些观点认为当前产能利用率偏低的行业更多集中于中下游，"反内 卷"推升价格的作用可能有限，但我们认为，借助"反内卷"一系列措施，政策目 标更侧重质量提升、科技投入、劳动者和中小企业权益呵护，以及地方招商引资模 式优化，化解"内卷式"竞争带来的低效率问题、实现"量增质升"比关注价格本 身更加重要。 ⚫ 价格过度竞争抑制创新活力释放的问题已被重视，自上而下的高规格推动持续在 位，这有望成为各部门、各行动的催化剂。从去年政治局会议、中央经济工作会 议，到今年总书记两会参加地方代表团审议、人民日报 6 月 29 日推出金社平文章 《在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现高质量发展》、中央财经委会议的表态，这一提法 多次高规格地出现，涉及行业也在增加：年初市场监管总局座谈会涉及的行业为新 能源链条（天合光能、晶澳科技、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The expansion of advanced storage and logic capacity in China is expected to continue driving demand for semiconductor equipment, with uncertainties arising from geopolitical factors, tariff fluctuations, and export controls potentially accelerating the domestic production process of semiconductor equipment [2][7] - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from the ongoing advancements in high-end storage chips, as Chinese companies are gradually closing the gap with international leaders [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on domestic semiconductor equipment companies, including: - Northern Huachuang (002371, Buy) - Shengmei Shanghai (688082, Buy) - Tuojing Technology (688072, Buy) - Zhongwei Company (688012, Buy) - Xinyuan Micro (688037, Buy) - Wanye Enterprise (600641, Hold) - Huahai Qingke (688120, Not Rated) - Jingzhida (688627, Not Rated) - Zhichun Technology (603690, Not Rated) - Saiteng Co., Ltd. (603283, Not Rated) - Jingce Electronics (300567, Buy) - Zhongke Feimiao (688361, Not Rated) [2] Market Trends and Data - In Q1 2025, the sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in mainland China reached $10.26 billion, reflecting a 14% quarter-on-quarter decline and an 18% year-on-year decline. However, the A-share semiconductor equipment sector reported a 39% year-on-year revenue growth to $18.9 billion, with net profit increasing by 38% to $2.8 billion, indicating a strong growth trend [7] - The Chinese wafer foundry industry is expected to maintain a capacity expansion trend, with capital expenditure needs anticipated to remain strong over the long term. By 2024, mainland China is projected to hold a 21% share of global foundry capacity, second only to Taiwan [7] - Domestic advanced storage continues to make breakthroughs, with companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies achieving significant advancements in high-end storage chip technology, which is expected to drive rapid growth in upstream equipment demand [7]

光模块 Micro TEC 高增长，拓展储能新应 用 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.82/1.20/1.52 元（原 25 年每股收益预测为 0.71 元，主要上调营业收入与毛利率），根据可比公司 25 年 48 倍 PE 估值，对应目 标价 39.36 元，维持增持评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求复苏不及预期、高端产品拓展不及预期、海外业务不及预期、汇率波动风险、 热电整机产品大客户占比过高风险、资产减值风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 400 | 516 | 653 | 825 | 973 | | 同比增长 (%) | -20.3% | 29.0% | 26.6% | 26.4% | 17.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (23) | 48 | 82 | 120 | 151 | | 同比增长 (%) | -137.4% | 309.8% | 70.3% | 46.2% | ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 06 日 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Trend 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Liquidity 风格上。预 期 PEG 是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 投资建议 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | IH 升水，IC 及 IM 贴水扩大，中小盘短期 | 2025-07-05 | | --- | --- | | 偏多对待：分红对期指的影响 20250704 | | | 捕捉趋势的力量：基金动量刻画新范式： | 2025-06-12 | | ——FOF 研究系列 | | | Neural ODE：时序动力系统重构下深度学 | 2025-05-27 | | 习因子挖掘模型：——因子选股系列之一 | | | 一六 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The governance of "involution" competition is expected to promote healthy development in the industry, with continued focus on companies within the Huawei supply chain [1][13] - June sales in the automotive industry benefited from consumption promotion policies, with significant year-on-year growth observed [11][17] - The report suggests that companies related to the Huawei supply chain will be less affected by price competition, indicating a stable order growth for models like the Hongmeng Zhixing S800 [12][19] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends continued attention to the Huawei supply chain, including complete vehicles and auto parts, with a focus on competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology expected to expand market share by 2025 [2][14] - Suggested companies for investment include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, and several others in the automotive and parts sectors [15][16] Sales Tracking - In June, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 1.235 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%, while retail sales reached 763,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [17] - Notable sales growth was reported for several new energy vehicle brands, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 units in June, marking a new monthly high [19] Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry is taking proactive measures to combat "involution" competition, including shortening supplier payment terms to 60 days and implementing various actions to stabilize pricing and improve profitability [13][22] - The report highlights that the central government is focusing on eliminating low-price disorderly competition and enhancing product quality across the industry [13] Market Performance - The automotive sector's overall performance has been relatively flat, with the motorcycle and other segments showing better performance [22] - The report notes that the automotive industry has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [24]

投资策略 | 定期报告 短期攻势暂缓，中期升势未变 策略周报 20250706 研究结论 ⚫ 全球市场下周或延续震荡 全球降息交易暂歇，下周延续震荡预期：前一周全球市场普涨系交易 9 月的美联储 降息预期，本周全球主要市场除巴西、美国和中国上涨外，整体出现震荡态势，降 息交易暂歇。我们认为美国市场本周全面上涨，并不是交易降息预期，主要是交易 政策不确定性下降，"大而美"法案成功落地短期降低了市场对特朗普政府执政能 力的担心，但这一利好已经落地，政策实际落地效果仍然具有不确定性。美国最新 就业数据公布后，利率期货交易员认为美国 7 月降息预期已微乎其微，9 月降息概率 也从 98%下降到 80%以下。综上我们认为全球市场的上涨或告一段落，下周延续震 荡预期。 风险事件乐观定价充分，预期差逆转压制上涨动力：上周中美推进"伦敦框架" （中方审批管制物项出口、美方松绑限制），市场或因此短期下调了风险评价。但 当前定价或已充分反映对关税战的乐观预期，市场可能会开始担心 9 日事件落地结 果难超预期。随着交易焦点转向 7 月 9 日关税休战到期， 风险评价预期短升将压制 全球市场反弹动能。 ⚫ A 股短期攻势或暂缓，关税 ...