景气分化但估值趋同，产业债如何挖掘？ 固定收益 | 专题报告 产业债投资策略 研究结论 产业债挖掘策略：票息策略占优，关注收益增强机会。 主流发债行业研判：分化加剧，下沉挖掘性价比不高。 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；模型测算误差；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 票息策略优于久期策略：信用债市场周观 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 信用债 ETF 将持续吸引资金流入：信用债 | 2025-11-11 | | 市场周观察 | | | 把握年末信用利差压缩行情：2025年11月 | 2025-11-06 | | 小品种策略 | | | 以中短信用为基本盘， ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 美国 9 月就业数据：经济与政策不确定性 未能出清 研究结论 风险提示 就业数据持续产生预期差的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国政府重开后劳工部延迟公布 9 月美国非 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注被错杀的有色细分板块 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 47 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | --- | --- | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 品种：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 46 周） | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格局变革 | 2025-11-11 | | 有 ...

风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 看好（维持） 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 印度取消 BIS 认证及反倾销税，利好 PVC 等产品出口增长 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注景气度有望复苏的 PVC 相关企业 中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业 (600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)， MDI 龙头 万华化学(600309，买入)。景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工 中，相关标的包括川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等；草酸 行业中，建议关注华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, with low market sentiment. However, the downward space for the index is considered limited, and the year-end adjustment presents a good opportunity for positioning for the coming year, particularly focusing on mid-cap blue chips [4][15]. Market Outlook - The short-term market adjustment does not alter the ongoing oscillating trend. The adjustment is influenced by both internal and external factors. Externally, there is a downward revision of the expectation for a decline in overseas risk-free interest rates in December. Internally, the risk appetite of high-risk investors is declining faster than that of low-risk investors. It is anticipated that the external factors may ease, and the risk appetite will gradually converge towards the middle. Overall, the future outlook remains stable with a mix of gains and losses, maintaining a sideways oscillation with a slight upward trend [5][16]. Industry Comparison - The layout for mid-cap blue chips is timely. Since March 2023, the market has seen a consensus expectation for a rally in both technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of risk styles at both ends is nearing its end, and future investment opportunities lie in stocks with medium risk characteristics. The long-dormant mid-cap blue chip market is expected to rise again, making the current market adjustment a favorable time for positioning [6][17]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in medium-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification," emphasizing the need for investments based on orders and revenue verification, particularly in communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery [7][18]. 2. The consumer sector, which has been quiet for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and with supply contraction, prices are expected to rise. Key areas of focus include the restaurant supply chain, second and third-tier liquor, snacks and beverages, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][18]. 3. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention should be given to new materials and strategic minor metals (such as antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, along with traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [7][18]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - The Google & Alibaba supply chain, where there is significant divergence in market expectations regarding AI development. The next phase may present opportunities across the entire supply chain from applications to large models and upstream computing power [8][19]. - Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution, with expectations for domestic wafer fabs to expand production next year and the capital progress of domestic storage chip leaders. The development of domestic semiconductor materials is expected to accelerate amid international relations challenges [8][19]. - Solid-state batteries, where the market is closely monitoring industrial progress. The acceleration point for solid-state battery industrialization has emerged, with the order-driven phase beginning in the equipment/materials segment [8][19]. - Aerospace satellites, which are entering a development opportunity period with expected catalysts. The IPO progress of industry leaders is anticipated to accelerate, with various fields such as constellation networking and satellite bidding expected to see rapid implementation [8][20]. - Upstream price increases, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20].

汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 国内外机器人公司持续迭代推进量产，调 整后继续关注机器人产业链 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，预计能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、国内机器人公司等配套产业链的汽零 将受益，具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面领先的企业将继续扩大市场份额。建 议持续关注人形机器人链、T 链、液冷产业链、华为产业链、智驾产业链公司。 相关标的：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、赛力斯、中国重汽、宇通客车；银轮股份、 新泉股份、博俊科技、爱柯迪、拓普集团、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、岱美股份、沪光股 份、保隆科技、精锻科技、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛西威、科博达、星宇股 份、三花智控、福耀玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry in China [8] Core Insights - The release of Google's Gemini 3 Pro model marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities, outperforming previous models like GPT-5.1 and Sonnet4.5 across nearly all evaluation metrics [2][3] - The introduction of new AI applications, such as Alibaba's "Qianwen" app and Ant Group's "Lingguang," indicates a shift towards more practical and task-oriented personal AI assistants [4] - The AI application landscape is evolving from simple chatbot interactions to more integrated solutions that can handle end-to-end tasks, enhancing user engagement and utility [5] Summary by Sections Model Performance and Iteration - The Gemini 3 Pro model's breakthrough performance is expected to boost confidence in AI model capabilities, with significant improvements in solving complex problems and multi-modal understanding [3] - The advancements in AI models suggest that the potential for further enhancements is still present, indicating a new growth phase for AI applications [5] Consumer Applications - The shift towards practical AI applications is exemplified by Alibaba's "Qianwen" app, which aims to facilitate tasks like online shopping and restaurant reservations through conversational interfaces [4] - Ant Group's "Lingguang" has gained rapid popularity, reaching over one million downloads within four days of its launch, showcasing the demand for effective productivity tools [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies in the AI application sector and AI computing power sector are expected to benefit from the ongoing improvements in model performance and increasing demand for reasoning capabilities [6] - Recommended companies in the AI application space include Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, and Tax Friend, while notable AI computing firms include Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in the current market environment, suggesting that investors should consider gradual positioning in sectors benefiting from marginal improvements in economic conditions in 2025 [2][3] - A significant rebalancing has occurred in global stock markets, with funds shifting from previously high-performing technology sectors to relatively undervalued sectors such as resources, consumption, and manufacturing [2][3] - The report highlights the positive outlook for mid-cap blue-chip companies in the machinery sector, driven by both policy support and fundamental improvements [5] Market Strategy - The current market is characterized by a "stable internal and external" dynamic, with technology assets experiencing a pullback due to concerns over an "AI bubble" [2][3] - Investors are advised to focus on mid-cap blue-chip companies in sectors like non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, which have shown improved capital returns in Q3 [2][3] - Suggested ETFs for investment include the Consumer ETF (159928) and Infrastructure 50 ETF (516970/159635) [2][3] Industry Strategy - The machinery industry is expected to benefit from a dual drive of policy and fundamental support, with a focus on nurturing quality enterprises and specialized industrial clusters [5] - The forklift industry saw a 14.2% year-on-year increase in sales from January to October 2025, with exports rising by 15.5%, indicating a recovery in both domestic and international demand [5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance, providing opportunities for companies with advantages in hydraulic components and five-axis machine tools to capture both traditional equipment upgrades and emerging market opportunities [5] Theme Strategy - The report discusses the launch of Nano2, which introduces a reasoning-driven visual generation capability, marking a shift from diffusion-based generation to a more intelligent image generation paradigm [6] - Companies with a comprehensive AI pathway, integrating hardware, research, models, and application scenarios, are expected to benefit significantly from advancements in AI applications [6] - Relevant ETFs for this theme include the Media ETF (512980/159805) and the China Concept Internet ETF (513220/159605) [6]

公用事业行业周报（2025.11.17-2025.11.21） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 | 长协电价预期上修，现货市场建设加速： | 2025-11-09 | | --- | --- | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.11.03- | | | 2025.11.07） | | | 火电业绩持续高增，行业持仓已至低点： | 2025-11-02 | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.10.27- | | | 2025.10.31） | | | 煤价上涨接近尾声，火电 Q3 业绩如期兑 | 2025-10-26 | | 现 ： 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.10.20- | | | 2025.10.24） | | 公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 用电高增有望延续，火电增速由负转正 国家/地区 中国 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申 ...

机械中盘蓝筹公司孕育投资机会 ——机械行业跟踪 核心观点 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为行业总需求平稳增长，且科技赋能的重要性继续提升，则稳定与成长更为均衡 的中盘蓝筹公司更为受益。我们看好机械板块的中盘蓝筹公司投资机会，我们认为锂电 设备、工业母机、天然气装备、叉车、气体&装备、运输设备、手工具、注塑机、缝纫 机、智慧煤机、光伏设备、检测、工控等领域龙头公司具备中盘蓝筹属性。部分相关标 的：海天精工(601882，增持)、杰瑞股份(002353，买入)、杭叉集团(603298，买入)、 伊之密(300415，买入)、中创智领(601717，买入)、中集车辆(301039，未评级)。 风险提示 宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、海外高利率拖累需求、海外贸易摩擦加剧、原材料价 格上涨拖累企业盈利 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 22 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 产业共识正在收敛，量产时刻 ...