Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 150.27 CNY [4][11] Core Insights - The company reported Q4 revenue of 2.49 billion USD, exceeding guidance with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.8% and a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [10] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing domestic substitution in the supply chain, with a projected 18% year-on-year revenue growth from Chinese customers in 2025 [10] - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of high-value-added products, with a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter growth in wafer revenue in Q4 [10] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 5.04 billion, 6.74 billion, and 8.04 billion CNY respectively, with adjustments made to gross margin and expense ratios [4][11] - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are 45.25 billion, 57.80 billion, 67.31 billion, 78.96 billion, and 90.36 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -9%, 28%, 16%, 17%, and 14% respectively [6][14] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.9% in 2023 to 23.2% in 2026 and 2027 [6][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][6][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the configuration suggestion is to dig for opportunities in the pro - cyclical market, emphasizing both the chemical and agricultural sectors. The agricultural sector is expected to have price - rising prospects due to emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, funds are under - allocating to the agricultural sector, and the agricultural sector, with its mid - cap blue - chip characteristics, is expected to resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - In 2025, the agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with significant structural differentiation. Pig farming was under pressure, while beef cattle farming showed good performance. Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector [6][15] - For 2026, fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal, especially in the breeding sector such as pig and beef cattle farming [6][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 February Configuration Suggestion - Configuration strategy: Focus on the chemical and agricultural sectors in the pro - cyclical market. The agricultural sector is favored because of price - rising opportunities from emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, active equity mutual funds allocate less than 0.5% to the agricultural sector, and the scale proportion of agricultural - related ETFs is also low. The agricultural and forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with mid - cap blue - chip features, may resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - Recommended funds: Suggest paying attention to funds such as YinHua Agriculture Industry A, Agriculture Select LOF, etc. YinHua Agriculture Industry A holds the most agricultural - sector stocks and mainly allocates to the breeding sector, with a high proportion of holdings in pig and poultry breeding companies [2][9][10] 2025Q4 Quarterly Report on Agricultural Fund Core Viewpoints 2025 Agricultural Sector Market - Overall performance: The agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with structural differentiation. Although the agricultural index rose slightly in Q4, sub - sectors like breeding and feed declined, while the agro - chemical sector performed well due to supply - side adjustments [6][15] - Key sub - sectors: Pig farming was under pressure as pig prices hovered at the bottom, and the industry entered a new cycle of capacity reduction. Price recovery is expected in the second half of 2026. Beef cattle farming was outstanding, with beef prices rebounding significantly from the bottom, large - scale and long - term capacity reduction, and good stock price performance. Consumption - related sectors were sluggish [6][15][17] 2025 Agricultural Sector Configuration - Configuration ideas: Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector. They moderately increased holdings in leading enterprises during the trough of the breeding industry and concentrated their allocations on excellent companies in various sub - fields [17] - Fund types: Agricultural theme funds continued to focus on the breeding industry chain and adjusted their positions according to the cycle. Some general consumption funds slightly increased their allocations to the agricultural sector with low current valuations in Q4 [18][19] 2026 Agricultural Sector Outlook - Overall outlook: Fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector in 2026, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal. They emphasize the price - rising foundation at a low base and the reversal potential after capacity reduction. They are particularly optimistic about the upward cycle of the beef cattle/animal husbandry industry [20] - Pig farming opportunity: The capacity reduction that started in the second half of 2025, combined with policy constraints and deep losses, will enable the pig farming sector to reach a cycle configuration point or price reversal in 2026, especially in the second half of the year [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, particularly in the context of increasing demand for gas turbines and generators due to the expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to its profitability in the medium to long term [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 67.7% in 2023 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.2% to 21.7% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from 6.3% in 2025 to 7.6% in 2027 [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 14.1% in 2025 to 17.7% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a contrarian view, suggesting that while there is market anticipation for a cyclical turning point due to recent price stabilization and reduced listings in core cities, further observation is necessary. Key cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen still face significant pressure, and the recent market improvements are attributed to specific factors such as seasonal demand shifts and policy expectations [2][3] - The government’s policy direction remains focused on risk prevention, safeguarding livelihoods, and reducing financialization in the real estate sector. Despite expectations for a major policy shift, the report indicates that the fundamental approach has not changed significantly [3] - The report highlights that the real estate sector has shown stronger performance than the broader market, driven by policy easing expectations and improvements in core city markets. It suggests that investors should actively participate in the sector, especially in the short term, while remaining cautious about long-term fundamentals [5] Market Performance - The A/H real estate sector has outperformed the market, with A-shares showing a weekly excess return of 1.34% against the CSI 300 index [11] - In the A-share market, stocks like JingTuo Development led gains with a weekly increase of 23.72% [17] - The Hong Kong property sector indices have also outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable gains in companies like Contemporary Land [15][18] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - There has been a marginal improvement in listing prices in major cities, with Shanghai showing a rebound of 0.2% since January 18, 2026 [20] - The listing volume in first-tier cities has decreased significantly, with Shanghai experiencing a year-on-year decline of 20.08%, while Shenzhen saw an increase of 107.38% [24] - As the Spring Festival approaches, transaction volumes in major cities have turned negative, with declines of 26.54% in Guangzhou and 27.61% in Shenzhen [38] New Housing Weekly Tracking - The market is entering a "pre-holiday silence" period, with overall transaction volumes in the top ten cities declining by 14%, although Shanghai's new home transactions increased by 23% [56] - Total inventory has slightly decreased, with first-tier cities showing a more significant reduction. The average de-stocking period has lengthened seasonally, particularly in second-tier cities [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, which will contribute to profitability [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, anticipating a significant increase in profitability as overseas clients expand their gas and diesel generator production [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while net profit margin is expected to rise from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 12.1% in 2023 to 17.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [5][11].

Market Outlook - The report maintains a positive outlook on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from price increases[6] - The liquidity shock from Trump's nomination of Wosh has been largely digested, allowing the market to return to a cyclical price increase trend[19] Risk Assessment - Extreme risk events, such as US-China relations and unexpected global geopolitical events, may disrupt historical statistical patterns[3] - The risk of quantitative indicators failing, as historical data may have limited predictive power for the future[3] Sector Analysis - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the market is returning to fundamental pricing, with copper and aluminum inventories stabilizing and supply-demand dynamics improving[10] - The pig inventory has reached a low point, with prices expected to stabilize, indicating limited downside potential for pig prices[14] - Chemical prices are on the rise, with Zhejiang Longsheng announcing a price increase of 2,000 yuan/ton for disperse dyes, driven by a significant increase in upstream intermediate prices[18] Trading Sentiment - Short-term sentiment across various sectors is generally rising, with mid-cap indices showing manageable risk levels despite some fluctuations[20] - The mid-term uncertainty for the CSI 500 index has slightly increased, while other indices remain relatively stable, indicating overall controllable risk[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.80 CNY based on a 20x P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The recovery in external demand and new domestic scenarios are expected to drive a bottom-up recovery in the sweetener market [2]. - The price of sucralose experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, alongside a notable increase in the prices of basic chemical products like sulfur and sulfuric acid [3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.92 billion CNY, 8.18 billion CNY, and 8.70 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory after a decline in previous years [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to be 5,412 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.1%, followed by 6,436 million CNY in 2026, reflecting an 18.9% increase [5]. - The company's net profit for 2025 is estimated at 592 million CNY, with a projected growth of 6.3% in 2026, reaching 818 million CNY [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.2% in 2025 to 23.0% in 2026, while the net margin is projected to rise from 10.9% to 12.7% in the same period [5]. Market Dynamics - The supply landscape for sweeteners is anticipated to continue optimizing, with signs of recovery in sucralose exports and positive external demand signals emerging [10]. - The approval of sucralose as a new feed additive for weaned piglets marks a significant opportunity for the company, potentially leading to a demand exceeding 3,500 tons in the domestic market during the five-year regulatory protection period [10].

Core Insights - The cobalt industry is expected to experience a significant price increase due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, with prices likely reaching new highs by 2026 [2][4][10] - The Congo (DRC) quota system is driving the global cobalt market's pricing power, with supply constraints becoming more influential than simple supply-demand dynamics [4][6][10] Group 1: Overall Industry Outlook - The year 2025 marks a critical turning point for the cobalt industry, transitioning from a supply surplus to a structural shortage, which is expected to continue into 2026 [10][11] - The global cobalt supply is highly concentrated, with the DRC accounting for approximately 76% of global production, making the market sensitive to geopolitical and policy changes [41][50] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The DRC's export quota for cobalt is set at 96,600 metric tons annually for 2026-2027, a 55% reduction from 2024 levels, leading to a structural supply gap of 91,000 and 112,000 metric tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][10] - The supply of cobalt from artisanal mining is expected to remain limited due to government control and quota restrictions, impacting overall market supply [61] Group 3: Demand Projections - Battery applications dominate cobalt demand, accounting for 73% of total consumption, with electric vehicle batteries being the primary growth driver [4][19] - The demand for cobalt in the consumer electronics sector is also expected to recover, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5% over the next three years [4][19] Group 4: Price Outlook - The pricing mechanism for cobalt is shifting from a cost-based model to one driven by supply shortages and geopolitical risks, suggesting that cobalt prices will remain elevated in the long term [11][10] - Cobalt prices are projected to maintain high levels due to the structural supply-demand imbalance, with significant price increases observed following policy changes in the DRC [15][38] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Key investment targets include Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Greeenme, all of which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price increases and supply constraints in the cobalt market [4][6]

外需回暖及内需新场景有望带动甜味剂底 部复苏 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于三氯蔗糖价格 25 年出现了较大波动，同时基础化工品硫磺、硫酸价格又出现了 较大上涨，我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 5.92、8.18、8.70 亿元（原 25- 26 年归母净利润为 12.73、14.94 亿元），按照可比公司 26 年 20 倍市盈率，给以目 标价 28.80 元并维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 产品和原材料价格波动；需求不及预期；市场空间、价格假设等测算相关风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,311 | 5,303 | 5,412 | 6,436 | 6,628 | | 同比增长 (%) | -26.7% | -0.1% | 2.1% | 18.9% | 3.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 798 | 657 | 692 | 955 | 1,012 | | 同比增长 (%) | -59.1% | -1 ...

房地产行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点 上海收储二手房有助于疏通置换链条，同时具备重要信号意义。 上海收储二手房具备重要信号意义 2 月 2 日，中国建设银行上海市分行宣布，将对上海市试点收购二手住房用于保障 性租赁住房项目提供全周期金融支持。浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区作为试点区，首 批拟收购房源聚焦房型匹配、配套成熟、交通便捷等特征。 我们认为，此次上海推进收储二手房的背景主要包括两方面： 1）自去年下半年，上海二手房挂牌量出现环比回落，抛压高峰正在过去。2）根据 多家房产经纪平台，上海核心区部分房源租金收益率已超过 2.50%，高于 10 年期地 方专项债的融资成本。 此次收购通过提升区位优质的"老破小"流动性，有助于释放改善性购房需求。根 据三区试点方案，收购对象为置换链条最底层的"老破小"，例如，浦东区将优先收 购内环内 2000 年以前、单套面积 70 ㎡以下、总价不高于 400 万元、产权清晰的二 手房。参与收储的业主取得的是"房票/专用资金"，需按规则用于在本区内购买新 房。"卖旧买新"闭环机制在一定程度上有助于疏通一二手房置换链条。 我们认为"以旧换新"关键在于市场化收购与运营的挑战。值得 ...