资产配置 | 定期报告 风险偏好承压，A 股风险可控 20260330 多资产配置周报 风险提示 1、 极端风险事件，例如中美关系、全球地缘超预期事件等，可能打破统计上的历史规 律； 2、 量化指标失效的风险，历史数据对未来的指引效果有限。 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 30 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | | | | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 流动性风险可控：20260323 多资产配置周 | 2026-03-24 | | --- | --- | | 报 | | | 资产配置 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - Recent performance in the real estate sector has been weak, influenced by unmet policy expectations and underwhelming "small spring" performance, characterized by price-driven volume increases, stronger second-hand home sales compared to new homes, and a high proportion of first-time buyers [2][5] - Key cities like Shanghai and Beijing are showing positive signals, with a reduction in supply due to sellers holding back listings, and a healthy level of second-hand home inventory and absorption cycles [2] - The report suggests that the real estate market in Beijing and Shanghai may stabilize and recover first during this downturn, with a potential price stabilization expected within the next two years [2] - Investors are advised to focus on the real estate market's performance to capture cyclical opportunities, especially given the defensive value of financial real estate amid global risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [2][5] Market Performance - The A/H real estate index has underperformed compared to benchmarks, with the A-share real estate index declining by 1.42% [10] - Individual stock performance shows significant fluctuations, with Tibet City Investment rising by 21.83% while others like Hefei Urban Construction fell by 9.49% [14] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - In terms of listing prices, Shanghai has seen a continuous increase for three weeks, while Guangzhou has turned positive week-on-week [20] - Listing volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou continue to decline, with Beijing down by 0.12%, Shanghai by 0.33%, and Guangzhou by 0.18% [22] - Transaction volumes for second-hand homes in major cities have turned negative week-on-week, with Beijing down by 10.8%, Guangzhou by 3.1%, and Shenzhen by 12.9% [28] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home sales in Beijing and Shenzhen have increased week-on-week by 47% and 22% respectively, while Guangzhou has turned positive at 58% [45] - However, Shanghai's new home sales have decreased slightly by 5% week-on-week [45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three structural themes: Hong Kong real estate companies benefiting from market recovery, commercial real estate REITs, and companies with strong product capabilities and profitability [5]

25 年整体表现稳健 26 年起新业务有望提 速 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们基本维持对公司26-27年的盈利预测，新引入28年的盈利预期，预计公司2026- 2028 年每股收益分别为 0.49、0.55 和 0.61 元，参考可比公司，给予 2026 年 15 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 7.30 元，维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、服饰终端复苏低于预期、新业务拓展不及预期等 施红梅 执业证书编号：S0860511010001 香港证监会牌照：BXO424 shihongmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 公司主要财务信息 | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 20,957 | 21,626 | 23,758 | 26,017 | 28,206 | | 同比增长 (%) | -2.7% | 3.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,780 | 2,80 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry [6] Core Insights - The VLCC freight rates remain high and are being transmitted to smaller vessels, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs due to energy security concerns [2][12] - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with passage volume decreasing by over 95% since the conflict began [12][24] - The TCE for VLCC from the Middle East to China has dropped to $350,000 per day, while TCE for smaller vessels has seen a significant increase, with Suezmax and Aframax rates rising to $280,000 and $230,000 per day, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of over 50% [12][21] - The report anticipates that the VLCC TCE from the US Gulf to China may remain high due to the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [12][13] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates are high, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs due to energy security concerns [2][12] - The US Department of Energy plans to replenish approximately 200 million barrels of strategic reserves over the next year, which is 20% more than the extraction volume [13] - The demand for oil transportation is expected to increase due to inventory replenishment by oil-consuming countries, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the EU, which rely on maritime imports [13] Dry Bulk - Small vessel freight rates have declined, putting pressure on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which fell by 1.6% week-on-week, primarily due to the performance of smaller vessels [28] - The market for Capesize and Panamax vessels is under pressure, with the BPI declining by 3.7% week-on-week, indicating a "more ships than cargo" scenario [28][32] Container Shipping - Freight rates have increased due to cost disturbances, with significant rises recorded on routes to Europe, the US West Coast, and the US East Coast, while the Mediterranean route saw a slight decline [36] - The Shanghai-Europe route increased by 4.1%, while the US West and East Coast routes rose by 14.5% and 11.7%, respectively [36][38] - COSCO has resumed bookings on the Middle East route through a multimodal transport method, effectively ensuring the transportation of goods and meeting demand in the region [36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the geopolitical situation will accelerate the realization of geopolitical options, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs due to energy security concerns [3][48] - The expected increase in oil production by 2025 and ongoing sanctions are anticipated to significantly enhance industry prosperity [48] - Related investment targets include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026), China Merchants Energy (601872), and China Merchants Jinling (601975), all currently unrated [3][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance over the past 25 years, with expectations for new business acceleration starting in 2026 [2] - The company’s revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2025 increased by 3.19%, 0.34%, and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with market expectations [8] - The main brand's revenue showed a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, while group purchasing and other brands (new business outlets and FCC) performed well, with revenue growth of 21.94% and 29.18%, respectively [8] - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, and net cash from operating activities grew by 93.46%, indicating improved profitability quality [8] - A high dividend of 0.41 yuan per share was announced, with a payout ratio of 91%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 6.7% at the current stock price [8] - The main brand's sales are expected to recover to a mid-single-digit growth rate starting in 2026, driven by channel optimization and product quality improvements [8] - The new business segment (urban outlets) is anticipated to accelerate and become a second growth curve for the company, with expectations for improved profitability as the business scales [8] Financial Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 0.49, 0.55, and 0.61 yuan, respectively [3][9] - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 23,758 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3] - Operating profit is forecasted to be 3,056 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,337 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [3] - The target price is set at 7.30 yuan, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2026 [3][9]

固定收益|动态跟踪 转债逆势上涨，谨防估值波动 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期 齐晟 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 qisheng@orientsec.com.cn 010-66210535 杜林 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 dulin@orientsec.com.cn 010-66210535 王静颖 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 徐沛翔 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 2 | 百元溢价率暂时企稳：可转债市场周观察 | 2026-03-24 | | --- | --- | | 关注地方债活跃度提升：固定收益市场周 | 2026-03-2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The recent performance of the real estate sector has been weak, influenced by unmet policy expectations and underwhelming sales during the "small spring" season. The market is characterized by price-driven volume increases, with second-hand homes outperforming new homes, and a high proportion of transactions driven by first-time buyers. The structural issues in transaction dynamics indicate that the market's recovery remains under pressure [2] - Positive signals are accumulating in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, with a notable reduction in supply due to sellers withdrawing listings. The inventory and absorption cycles in these cities have reached healthier levels, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices within the next one to two years. Historical data indicates that capital market performance typically leads housing price turning points by 3-6 months, highlighting the importance of monitoring market conditions for investment opportunities [2] - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive value in the financial real estate sector due to declining global risk appetite, while mid-term strategies should target three structural themes: Hong Kong property companies benefiting from market recovery, commercial real estate REITs, and companies with strong product capabilities and profitability [5] Market Performance - The A/H real estate index has underperformed compared to benchmarks, with the A-share real estate index declining by 1.42% [10] - In the second-hand housing market, Shanghai's listing prices have increased for three consecutive weeks, while Guangzhou's prices have turned positive. However, Beijing and Shenzhen continue to see price declines [20][22] - Transaction volumes in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and second-tier cities have decreased week-on-week, with notable declines of 10.8% in Beijing and 12.9% in Shenzhen. Conversely, Shanghai's second-hand home transactions have shown a positive trend, reaching a daily record of 1,585 units [28] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - Listing prices in Shanghai have risen by 0.16% week-on-week, while Guangzhou has seen a 0.06% increase. In contrast, Beijing's prices have dropped by 0.08% and Shenzhen's by 0.08% [20][22] - The listing volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou continue to decline, with respective week-on-week decreases of 0.12%, 0.33%, and 0.18%. Shenzhen's listings have increased by 0.27% [22][25] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home sales in Beijing and Shenzhen have increased week-on-week by 47% and 22%, respectively, while Guangzhou has turned positive with a 58% increase. However, Shanghai's new home sales have decreased by 5% [45][46] - The inventory of new homes in first-tier cities has slightly increased by 0.1% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in the market [47] Financing of Real Estate Companies - The total issuance of new bonds by real estate companies reached 14.444 billion, marking a week-on-week increase of 128.5% [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The VLCC freight rates remain high and are being transmitted to smaller vessels, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs amid energy security concerns [2][12] - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with passage volume decreasing by over 95% since the conflict began [12][24] - The report anticipates that the VLCC TCE for the Middle East to China route may remain high, supported by the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [12][13] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates are sustained at high levels, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE dropping to $350,000 per day, while TCE for the US Gulf to China and West Africa to China routes have significantly increased to $130,000 and $150,000 per day respectively [2][12] - Smaller vessel rates have rebounded significantly due to increased demand from the US Gulf, with Suezmax and Aframax TCE rising to $280,000 and $230,000 per day, respectively, reflecting over a 50% week-on-week increase [2][12] Dry Bulk - Small vessel rates have declined, putting pressure on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which saw a week-on-week decrease of 1.6%, primarily driven by the performance of smaller vessels [28] - The Capesize and Panamax vessels are under pressure, with the BPI showing a week-on-week decline of 3.7%, indicating a "more ships than cargo" scenario [28] Container Shipping - Freight rates have increased due to cost disturbances, with significant rises noted on routes to Europe, the US West Coast, and East Coast, while the Mediterranean route saw a slight decline [36] - The Shanghai to Europe route increased by 4.1%, while the US West and East Coast routes rose by 14.5% and 11.7% respectively [36][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the US-Israel strikes on Iran will accelerate the realization of geopolitical options, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs amid energy security concerns [3][48] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (600026), China Merchants Energy (601872), and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975) [3][48]

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 自主创新提速，国产算力迎来发展新机遇 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为国产算力链有望在未来 AI 发展中持续受益，相关标的为华丰科技(688629，未 评级)、神州数码(000034，未评级)、浪潮信息(000977，未评级)、寒武纪(688256，未 评级)、海光信息(688041，买入)。 计算机行业动态跟踪 —— 自主创新提速，国产算力迎来发展新机遇 分析师申明 每位负责撰写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此作以下声明： 分析师在本报告中对所提及的证券或发行人发表的任何建议和观点均准确地反映了其个人对该证 券或发行人的看法和判断；分析师薪酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来，均与其在本 研究报告中所表述的具体建议或观点无任何直接或间接的关系。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧； 商业化进展不及预期。 | 看好（维持） | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 计算机行业 | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 03 月 30 日 | | 陈超 | 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 | | --- | ...

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 自主创新提速，国产算力迎来发展新机遇 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为国产算力链有望在未来 AI 发展中持续受益，相关标的为华丰科技(688629，未 评级)、神州数码(000034，未评级)、浪潮信息(000977，未评级)、寒武纪(688256，未 评级)、海光信息(688041，买入)。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧； 商业化进展不及预期。 | 看好（维持） | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 计算机行业 | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 03 月 30 日 | | 陈超 | 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 | | --- | --- | | | chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 浦俊懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050004 | | | pujunyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宋鑫宇 | 执业证书编号：S0860524090002 | | | songxinyu ...