资产配置 | 定期报告 风险偏好承压，A 股风险可控 20260330 多资产配置周报 风险提示 1、 极端风险事件，例如中美关系、全球地缘超预期事件等，可能打破统计上的历史规 律； 2、 量化指标失效的风险，历史数据对未来的指引效果有限。 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 30 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | | | | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 流动性风险可控：20260323 多资产配置周 | 2026-03-24 | | --- | --- | | 报 | | | 资产配置 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - Recent performance in the real estate sector has been weak, influenced by unmet policy expectations and underwhelming "small spring" performance, characterized by price-driven volume increases, stronger second-hand home sales compared to new homes, and a high proportion of first-time buyers [2][5] - Key cities like Shanghai and Beijing are showing positive signals, with a reduction in supply due to sellers holding back listings, and a healthy level of second-hand home inventory and absorption cycles [2] - The report suggests that the real estate market in Beijing and Shanghai may stabilize and recover first during this downturn, with a potential price stabilization expected within the next two years [2] - Investors are advised to focus on the real estate market's performance to capture cyclical opportunities, especially given the defensive value of financial real estate amid global risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [2][5] Market Performance - The A/H real estate index has underperformed compared to benchmarks, with the A-share real estate index declining by 1.42% [10] - Individual stock performance shows significant fluctuations, with Tibet City Investment rising by 21.83% while others like Hefei Urban Construction fell by 9.49% [14] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - In terms of listing prices, Shanghai has seen a continuous increase for three weeks, while Guangzhou has turned positive week-on-week [20] - Listing volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou continue to decline, with Beijing down by 0.12%, Shanghai by 0.33%, and Guangzhou by 0.18% [22] - Transaction volumes for second-hand homes in major cities have turned negative week-on-week, with Beijing down by 10.8%, Guangzhou by 3.1%, and Shenzhen by 12.9% [28] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home sales in Beijing and Shenzhen have increased week-on-week by 47% and 22% respectively, while Guangzhou has turned positive at 58% [45] - However, Shanghai's new home sales have decreased slightly by 5% week-on-week [45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three structural themes: Hong Kong real estate companies benefiting from market recovery, commercial real estate REITs, and companies with strong product capabilities and profitability [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company has shown steady performance over the past 25 years, with expectations for new business acceleration starting in 2026 [2]. - The company’s revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2025 increased by 3.19%, 0.34%, and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with market expectations [8]. - The main brand's revenue saw a decline of 2.4%, while the group purchasing business and other brands (new business in outlet and FCC) performed well, with revenue growth of 21.94% and 29.18%, respectively [8]. - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, and net cash from operating activities grew by 93.46%, indicating improved profitability quality [8]. - A high dividend of 0.41 yuan per share was announced, with a payout ratio of 91%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 6.7% at the current stock price [8]. - The main brand's sales showed improvement in Q4 2025, with expectations for steady growth starting in 2026 due to optimized channel structures and enhanced product quality [8]. - The new business segment, urban outlets, is expected to accelerate and become a second growth curve for the company starting in 2026 [8]. Financial Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 0.49, 0.55, and 0.61 yuan, respectively [3][9]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 23,758 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 3,056 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a 9.0% increase year-on-year [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,337 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [3]. - The target price is set at 7.30 yuan based on a 15x PE valuation for 2026 [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry [6] Core Insights - The VLCC freight rates remain high and are being transmitted to smaller vessels, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs due to energy security concerns [2][12] - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with passage volume decreasing by over 95% since the conflict began [12][24] - The TCE for VLCC from the Middle East to China has dropped to $350,000 per day, while TCE for smaller vessels has seen a significant increase, with Suezmax and Aframax rates rising to $280,000 and $230,000 per day, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week increase of over 50% [12][21] - The report anticipates that the VLCC TCE from the US Gulf to China may remain high due to the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [12][13] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates are high, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs due to energy security concerns [2][12] - The US Department of Energy plans to replenish approximately 200 million barrels of strategic reserves over the next year, which is 20% more than the extraction volume [13] - The demand for oil transportation is expected to increase due to inventory replenishment by oil-consuming countries, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the EU, which rely on maritime imports [13] Dry Bulk - Small vessel freight rates have declined, putting pressure on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which fell by 1.6% week-on-week, primarily due to the performance of smaller vessels [28] - The market for Capesize and Panamax vessels is under pressure, with the BPI declining by 3.7% week-on-week, indicating a "more ships than cargo" scenario [28][32] Container Shipping - Freight rates have increased due to cost disturbances, with significant rises recorded on routes to Europe, the US West Coast, and the US East Coast, while the Mediterranean route saw a slight decline [36] - The Shanghai-Europe route increased by 4.1%, while the US West and East Coast routes rose by 14.5% and 11.7%, respectively [36][38] - COSCO has resumed bookings on the Middle East route through a multimodal transport method, effectively ensuring the transportation of goods and meeting demand in the region [36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the geopolitical situation will accelerate the realization of geopolitical options, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs due to energy security concerns [3][48] - The expected increase in oil production by 2025 and ongoing sanctions are anticipated to significantly enhance industry prosperity [48] - Related investment targets include COSCO Shipping Energy (600026), China Merchants Energy (601872), and China Merchants Jinling (601975), all currently unrated [3][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance over the past 25 years, with expectations for new business acceleration starting in 2026 [2] - The company’s revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2025 increased by 3.19%, 0.34%, and 5.3% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with market expectations [8] - The main brand's revenue showed a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, while group purchasing and other brands (new business outlets and FCC) performed well, with revenue growth of 21.94% and 29.18%, respectively [8] - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, and net cash from operating activities grew by 93.46%, indicating improved profitability quality [8] - A high dividend of 0.41 yuan per share was announced, with a payout ratio of 91%, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 6.7% at the current stock price [8] - The main brand's sales are expected to recover to a mid-single-digit growth rate starting in 2026, driven by channel optimization and product quality improvements [8] - The new business segment (urban outlets) is anticipated to accelerate and become a second growth curve for the company, with expectations for improved profitability as the business scales [8] Financial Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are projected to be 0.49, 0.55, and 0.61 yuan, respectively [3][9] - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 23,758 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3] - Operating profit is forecasted to be 3,056 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.0% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,337 million yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [3] - The target price is set at 7.30 yuan, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2026 [3][9]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the convertible bond market showed significant strength compared to the underlying stocks, with the central value of the conversion premium rate rising significantly and the conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value remaining stable. The core driving force for the "resistant to decline and follow - up with rise" of convertible bonds comes from the expansion of the premium rate. However, the current position structure may lead to a callback risk that deviates from the equity rhythm [5][8]. - The capital support from the expansion of insurance funds and the transfer of household deposits still exists, and the allocation demand for "fixed - income +" products is resilient. The medium - term optimistic expectation for the convertible bond market remains unchanged. In the short term, the market trading difficulty has increased significantly, and the convertible bond volatility will remain high. If the market further adjusts, high - quality bottom - position varieties with excessive decline will present a layout window. It is recommended to focus on band trading opportunities, shorten the holding period moderately, and strictly control the portfolio drawdown risk [5][8]. - Last week, the equity market fluctuated widely, with the market center moving down. Geopolitical conflicts and overseas stagflation expectations led to a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, followed by a rebound. The energy security sector remained strong, while the non - banking finance and technology growth sectors were weak. In the medium term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and mid - cap blue - chip stocks may become the main force in the market, with the cycle and high - end manufacturing sectors having high allocation value [5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Convertible Bonds Rose Against the Trend, Be Wary of Valuation Fluctuations - The convertible bond market showed an independent anti - decline trend last week, with the central value of the conversion premium rate rising significantly. The position structure may lead to a callback risk. The medium - term outlook is optimistic, but short - term trading is difficult. It is recommended to focus on band trading and control risks [8]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Against the Trend, and the Central Value of the Premium Rate was Passively Lifted 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Lower, and Trading Volume Declined Slightly - The equity market fluctuated widely last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index once falling below 3800 points. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.28%, while most other indexes fell. The daily average trading volume decreased to 2.11 trillion yuan. The top - ten rising convertible bonds and the most active convertible bonds are listed [13]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Trading Volume Increased, and High - Price and Medium - High - Rating Convertible Bonds Led the Gains - The convertible bond market fluctuated greatly last week, with trading volume increasing. The daily average trading volume rose to 673.98 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.28%, the median convertible bond par value fell 1.7% to 100.9 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rose 2.2 percentage points to 32.2%. High - price and medium - high - rating convertible bonds performed well, while large - cap and high - rating convertible bonds performed weakly [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The recent performance of the real estate sector has been weak, influenced by unmet policy expectations and underwhelming sales during the "small spring" season. The market is characterized by price-driven volume increases, with second-hand homes outperforming new homes, and a high proportion of transactions driven by first-time buyers. The structural issues in transaction dynamics indicate that the market's recovery remains under pressure [2] - Positive signals are accumulating in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, with a notable reduction in supply due to sellers withdrawing listings. The inventory and absorption cycles in these cities have reached healthier levels, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices within the next one to two years. Historical data indicates that capital market performance typically leads housing price turning points by 3-6 months, highlighting the importance of monitoring market conditions for investment opportunities [2] - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive value in the financial real estate sector due to declining global risk appetite, while mid-term strategies should target three structural themes: Hong Kong property companies benefiting from market recovery, commercial real estate REITs, and companies with strong product capabilities and profitability [5] Market Performance - The A/H real estate index has underperformed compared to benchmarks, with the A-share real estate index declining by 1.42% [10] - In the second-hand housing market, Shanghai's listing prices have increased for three consecutive weeks, while Guangzhou's prices have turned positive. However, Beijing and Shenzhen continue to see price declines [20][22] - Transaction volumes in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and second-tier cities have decreased week-on-week, with notable declines of 10.8% in Beijing and 12.9% in Shenzhen. Conversely, Shanghai's second-hand home transactions have shown a positive trend, reaching a daily record of 1,585 units [28] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - Listing prices in Shanghai have risen by 0.16% week-on-week, while Guangzhou has seen a 0.06% increase. In contrast, Beijing's prices have dropped by 0.08% and Shenzhen's by 0.08% [20][22] - The listing volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou continue to decline, with respective week-on-week decreases of 0.12%, 0.33%, and 0.18%. Shenzhen's listings have increased by 0.27% [22][25] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home sales in Beijing and Shenzhen have increased week-on-week by 47% and 22%, respectively, while Guangzhou has turned positive with a 58% increase. However, Shanghai's new home sales have decreased by 5% [45][46] - The inventory of new homes in first-tier cities has slightly increased by 0.1% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in the market [47] Financing of Real Estate Companies - The total issuance of new bonds by real estate companies reached 14.444 billion, marking a week-on-week increase of 128.5% [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The VLCC freight rates remain high and are being transmitted to smaller vessels, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs amid energy security concerns [2][12] - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with passage volume decreasing by over 95% since the conflict began [12][24] - The report anticipates that the VLCC TCE for the Middle East to China route may remain high, supported by the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [12][13] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates are sustained at high levels, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE dropping to $350,000 per day, while TCE for the US Gulf to China and West Africa to China routes have significantly increased to $130,000 and $150,000 per day respectively [2][12] - Smaller vessel rates have rebounded significantly due to increased demand from the US Gulf, with Suezmax and Aframax TCE rising to $280,000 and $230,000 per day, respectively, reflecting over a 50% week-on-week increase [2][12] Dry Bulk - Small vessel rates have declined, putting pressure on the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which saw a week-on-week decrease of 1.6%, primarily driven by the performance of smaller vessels [28] - The Capesize and Panamax vessels are under pressure, with the BPI showing a week-on-week decline of 3.7%, indicating a "more ships than cargo" scenario [28] Container Shipping - Freight rates have increased due to cost disturbances, with significant rises noted on routes to Europe, the US West Coast, and East Coast, while the Mediterranean route saw a slight decline [36] - The Shanghai to Europe route increased by 4.1%, while the US West and East Coast routes rose by 14.5% and 11.7% respectively [36][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the US-Israel strikes on Iran will accelerate the realization of geopolitical options, with a focus on excessive inventory replenishment needs amid energy security concerns [3][48] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (600026), China Merchants Energy (601872), and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (601975) [3][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the computer industry in China [5] Core Insights - The domestic computing power chain is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of AI, with key companies identified as Huafeng Technology, Digital China, Inspur Information, Cambricon, and Haiguang Information, with Haiguang Information rated as "Buy" [3] - Huawei's recent launch of the Ascend 950PR processor marks a significant advancement in AI training and inference capabilities, indicating a shift in global AI computing demand from "training" to "inference" [6] - The Ascend 950PR features self-developed HBM technology and supports FP4 low-precision data format, enhancing performance and reducing power consumption, thus improving competitiveness in the high-end inference market [6] - The demand for computing power is on the rise, driven by the gradual implementation of AI applications and the increasing need for computing security among leading domestic internet companies, signaling a golden development period for domestic computing chips [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the transformation of the domestic AI computing power industry, emphasizing the complete closed-loop system established by Huawei from chip design to software stack [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic computing power industry will see continuous benefits from AI development, with specific companies recommended for investment [3] Market Dynamics - The report notes that as domestic computing chips continue to evolve, performance improvements and decreasing inference costs will likely enhance market penetration [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the computer industry in China [5]. Core Insights - The domestic computing power chain is expected to benefit continuously from the development of AI, with key companies identified as Huafeng Technology, Digital China, Inspur Information, Cambricon, and Haiguang Information, with Haiguang Information rated as "Buy" [3]. - Huawei's recent launch of the Ascend 950PR processor marks a significant advancement in AI training and inference capabilities, indicating a shift in the global AI computing power demand from "training" to "inference" [6]. - The Ascend 950PR features self-developed HBM technology, enhancing system interconnect bandwidth and supporting low-precision data formats, which reduces power consumption and lowers unit computing costs [6]. - The demand for computing power is on the rise, driven by the gradual implementation of AI applications and the increasing need for computing power security among leading domestic internet companies [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the acceleration of independent innovation in the domestic computing power sector, presenting new opportunities for development [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the domestic computing power industry is entering a golden development period, with continuous iterations of related chips expected to enhance performance and increase market penetration [6].