有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 Grasberg 铜矿宣布复产计划，中期铜冶炼 费或存上行预期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 铜矿重启进度不及预期风险、中游铜冶炼扩产进度超预期风险、宏观经济波动导致下游 铜需求不及预期风险、产能统计遗漏影响测算结果风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 品种：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 46 周） | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific situation is increasing, which may accelerate the equipment construction in China, focusing on new combat capabilities [2][12] - China's high-end aviation equipment showcased at the Dubai Airshow is expected to further expand the military trade market [12][15] - The Fujian aircraft carrier has conducted its first live training at sea, indicating a significant advancement in operational capabilities and technology [12][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for new combat capabilities and military trade as key growth areas [19] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights various investment targets across different segments, including: - Engine and fuel chain: Companies like Xi'an Aero Engine (600893), Western Superconducting (688122), and others [19][20] - New quality and domains: Companies such as Aerospace Electronics (600879), Haige Communication (002465), and others [19][20] - Military electronics: Companies like Aerospace Electric (002025), Zhonghang Optical (002179), and others [19][20] - Military trade and main equipment: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760), AVIC Chengfei (302132), and others [19][20] Industry News and Market Performance - The report notes that the defense and military industry index has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only -1.72% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's -3.90% [22][25] - The report provides a detailed analysis of weekly market performance, indicating that the defense and military sector remains resilient amid broader market declines [22][25] Key Events and Developments - The report outlines significant recent events, including: - The U.S. government approved a new round of arms sales to Japan, which may heighten regional tensions and prompt China to expedite its military equipment development [12][9] - The successful live training of the Fujian aircraft carrier, showcasing advanced operational capabilities [12][18] - The participation of Chinese high-end military equipment in international exhibitions, enhancing China's presence in the global military trade market [12][15]

我们认为，行业风险评价降低、行业进入中长期修复通道的信心不断强化是推动地 产股修复的主要原因。短期内地产市场下滑速度有所加快，12 月及 26 年一季度房 地产政策加码预期提升，优质地产股配置价值凸显。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 上周四，彭博新闻社称中国决策层正在考虑新一轮地产政策，包括对新增个人住房 贷款提供贴息、提高房贷个人所得税专项扣除以及进一步降低住房交易契税等，引 发地产板块股价上涨。我们无法判断后续的可能政策，但我们认为类似房贷贴息的 政策工具对房地产市场中短期回暖有实质性的支撑，其关键在于贴息的幅度和周期 长度。相较租金回报率（全国约 2%，一线城市约 1.5-%1.8%），我国 3.05%的房贷 利率偏高，而受银行净息差空间掣肘，LPR 下调空间有限，因此通过财政系统贴息 以显著缩小购房和租房成本差距的可行性更高。假设房屋总价 200 万，贷款 150 万，30 年期，首年以 3.05%利率计算，月供为 6364.58 元，若贴息 50BP，月供降 至 5965.88 元；若贴息 100BP，月供降至 5581.87 元。需要强调的是，房贷是一个 久期远大于消费贷的产品，房贷一般 10-30 年，因 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" with a target price of 124.52 HKD per share [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's core revenue for Q3 2025 was 24.7 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 7%, primarily due to a decline in online marketing revenue, which fell by 18% to 15.3 billion CNY. Non-online marketing revenue, however, increased by 21% to 9.3 billion CNY. The change in revenue structure led to a gross margin decline to 47.3%, down 11.5 percentage points year-over-year. The company reported a core operating loss of 15 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of 3.8 billion CNY for Q3 2025. The company is currently transitioning from traditional search engine advertising to AI-driven business models, with expectations of short-term pressure on traditional advertising revenue but potential improvements in profitability following asset impairments [8][9]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 19.3 billion CNY, 19.5 billion CNY, and 22.0 billion CNY, respectively. The PE valuation method suggests a reasonable value of 311.7 billion CNY, equivalent to 342.5 billion HKD, based on a 16x PE for 2026 [9][11]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million CNY): 134,598 in 2023, projected to decline to 128,951 in 2025, before recovering to 144,353 in 2027 - Gross Margin: 52% in 2023, expected to decrease to 44% in 2025, then recover to 47% by 2027 - Net Profit Margin: 21% in 2023, projected to drop to 15% in 2025, and stabilize at 15% in 2027 - Earnings Per Share (CNY): 10.24 in 2023, declining to 7.12 in 2025, and recovering to 8.09 by 2027 [4][11].

景气分化但估值趋同，产业债如何挖掘？ 固定收益 | 专题报告 产业债投资策略 研究结论 产业债挖掘策略：票息策略占优，关注收益增强机会。 主流发债行业研判：分化加剧，下沉挖掘性价比不高。 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；模型测算误差；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 票息策略优于久期策略：信用债市场周观 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 信用债 ETF 将持续吸引资金流入：信用债 | 2025-11-11 | | 市场周观察 | | | 把握年末信用利差压缩行情：2025年11月 | 2025-11-06 | | 小品种策略 | | | 以中短信用为基本盘， ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 美国 9 月就业数据：经济与政策不确定性 未能出清 研究结论 风险提示 就业数据持续产生预期差的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国政府重开后劳工部延迟公布 9 月美国非 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注被错杀的有色细分板块 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 47 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | --- | --- | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 | 2025-11-17 | | --- | --- | | 品种：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年 | | | 第 46 周） | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格局变革 | 2025-11-11 | | 有 ...

风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 看好（维持） 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 印度取消 BIS 认证及反倾销税，利好 PVC 等产品出口增长 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注景气度有望复苏的 PVC 相关企业 中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业 (600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)， MDI 龙头 万华化学(600309，买入)。景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工 中，相关标的包括川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等；草酸 行业中，建议关注华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment, with low market sentiment. However, the downward space for the index is considered limited, and the year-end adjustment presents a good opportunity for positioning for the coming year, particularly focusing on mid-cap blue chips [4][15]. Market Outlook - The short-term market adjustment does not alter the ongoing oscillating trend. The adjustment is influenced by both internal and external factors. Externally, there is a downward revision of the expectation for a decline in overseas risk-free interest rates in December. Internally, the risk appetite of high-risk investors is declining faster than that of low-risk investors. It is anticipated that the external factors may ease, and the risk appetite will gradually converge towards the middle. Overall, the future outlook remains stable with a mix of gains and losses, maintaining a sideways oscillation with a slight upward trend [5][16]. Industry Comparison - The layout for mid-cap blue chips is timely. Since March 2023, the market has seen a consensus expectation for a rally in both technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of risk styles at both ends is nearing its end, and future investment opportunities lie in stocks with medium risk characteristics. The long-dormant mid-cap blue chip market is expected to rise again, making the current market adjustment a favorable time for positioning [6][17]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in medium-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification," emphasizing the need for investments based on orders and revenue verification, particularly in communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery [7][18]. 2. The consumer sector, which has been quiet for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and with supply contraction, prices are expected to rise. Key areas of focus include the restaurant supply chain, second and third-tier liquor, snacks and beverages, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][18]. 3. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention should be given to new materials and strategic minor metals (such as antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, along with traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [7][18]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - The Google & Alibaba supply chain, where there is significant divergence in market expectations regarding AI development. The next phase may present opportunities across the entire supply chain from applications to large models and upstream computing power [8][19]. - Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution, with expectations for domestic wafer fabs to expand production next year and the capital progress of domestic storage chip leaders. The development of domestic semiconductor materials is expected to accelerate amid international relations challenges [8][19]. - Solid-state batteries, where the market is closely monitoring industrial progress. The acceleration point for solid-state battery industrialization has emerged, with the order-driven phase beginning in the equipment/materials segment [8][19]. - Aerospace satellites, which are entering a development opportunity period with expected catalysts. The IPO progress of industry leaders is anticipated to accelerate, with various fields such as constellation networking and satellite bidding expected to see rapid implementation [8][20]. - Upstream price increases, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20].

汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 核心观点 国内外机器人公司持续迭代推进量产，调 整后继续关注机器人产业链 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，预计能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、国内机器人公司等配套产业链的汽零 将受益，具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面领先的企业将继续扩大市场份额。建 议持续关注人形机器人链、T 链、液冷产业链、华为产业链、智驾产业链公司。 相关标的：上汽集团、江淮汽车、比亚迪、赛力斯、中国重汽、宇通客车；银轮股份、 新泉股份、博俊科技、爱柯迪、拓普集团、嵘泰股份、经纬恒润、岱美股份、沪光股 份、保隆科技、精锻科技、华阳集团、华域汽车、伯特利、德赛西威、科博达、星宇股 份、三花智控、福耀玻璃、浙江荣泰等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0 ...