Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these sectors [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a new era of non-linear changes in copper and gold prices, with expectations for sustained price increases [14]. - The Grasberg mine incident is expected to significantly disrupt copper supply, enhancing the certainty of rising copper prices in the medium term [14][15]. - The report highlights that the copper smelting capacity growth is likely to slow down, which may improve smelting fees and profitability for copper smelting companies [15]. - For gold, the report emphasizes that the core pricing logic is tied to the deterioration of dollar credit in the medium term, rather than short-term interest rate expectations [16][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the potential for copper prices to rise due to supply shortages exacerbated by the Grasberg mine incident, which could reduce copper concentrate supply by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [14]. - It notes that global demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to factors such as electric vehicle adoption and data center expansion [14]. - The report also mentions that the copper smelting industry is facing a "de-involution" trend, which may lead to improved smelting fees in the future [15]. 2. Steel Industry - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to find support at the bottom due to cost factors, with a potential recovery in profitability in the fourth quarter [18]. - It highlights a seasonal shift in demand, with an increase in rebar consumption by 4.96% week-on-week, although it remains down 13.71% year-on-year [24]. - The report notes that the overall steel price index has slightly decreased by 0.28%, with specific products like hot-rolled steel showing a decline of 0.65% [39]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54% in August 2025, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [43]. - It also mentions that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth rates, with August 2025 figures showing a 26.00% increase in production [47]. - The prices of lithium, cobalt, and nickel have shown an overall upward trend, reflecting strong demand in the energy metal market [54].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price of 13.20 CNY based on a 55x adjusted average valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The small and medium-sized drone market has significant growth potential, driven by the demand for unmanned combat systems in the military trade market [8][17]. - The company is a leader in the military small and medium-sized drone sector, with strong electronic information capabilities, and is expected to benefit from both domestic and international demand [9][10]. - The company has developed the "Hongzhan" unmanned equipment management system, which is anticipated to lead new trends in unmanned combat [8][9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.17, 0.24, and 0.32 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2021-2023 are 18,727 million CNY, 14,280 million CNY, and 15,651 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.2% in 2023 [4]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,042 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 29.2% [4]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for small and medium-sized drones is expected to expand significantly due to their low cost and high efficiency, particularly in modern warfare scenarios [19][21]. - The commercial space sector is in a rapid growth phase, with the company positioned to benefit from increased satellite launches and the development of low-orbit satellites [10][11]. - The traditional business segments are expected to recover as the defense market improves, with a focus on missile, satellite, and rocket components [8][11]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive range of drone products, including the FH-901 loitering munition, which boasts superior performance and collaborative combat capabilities [27][32]. - The company’s drones are designed for various military applications, with a focus on electronic information integration and system capabilities [30][31]. - The FH-901 loitering munition is noted for its long endurance and high explosive power, making it competitive against international counterparts [32][33].

新一期股权激励方案出炉 预计中期形势好 于短期 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 | | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年09月26日） | 10.01 元 | | 目标价格 | 15.84 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 14.89/9.89 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 116,889/101,661 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 11,701 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -1.38 | -11.42 | -9.17 | -19.55 | | 相对表现% | -2.45 | -13.61 | -24.48 | -47.89 | | 沪深 300% | 1.07 | 2.19 | 15.31 | 28.34 | ⚫ 根据下游服饰行业的经营形势和我们的草根跟踪，我们调整对公司的盈利预测，预 计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值继续压缩，等待切入时机：可转债市 | 2025-09-24 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 关注科创债 ETF 未"超涨"成分券：信用 | 2025-09-22 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the strategy of credit exploration within 3Y, emphasizing stronger stability and liquidity to counter market volatility. Suggest that public funds focus on medium - to high - grade credit bonds with a maturity of less than 2Y, and institutions with strong liability - side stability can gradually bottom - fish 3Y bonds. For perpetual and secondary bonds, 2 - 3Y bonds have fallen to attractive levels and can be used for rebound gaming [5][9]. - The cost - effectiveness of industrial bond exploration is lower than that of urban investment bonds. The strategy of exploring urban investment bonds along the yield curve is more feasible, and the riding cost - effectiveness of 1 - 2Y bonds has increased [5][13]. Summary by Directory 1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Maintain Stability and Liquidity to Counter Market Volatility - Last week, credit bonds experienced a supplementary decline, with longer - term bonds falling more. Credit spreads widened across the board, the largest increase since September. The current market environment is fragile, and the negative impact of the bond market has weakened marginally, but market sentiment will remain fragile in the short term. It is recommended to maintain the idea of credit exploration within 3Y [5][9]. - In September, the credit spread trend of industrial bonds was not strongly correlated with fundamental changes, and its stability was slightly weaker than that of urban investment bonds. After the supplementary decline last week, the historical quantile of industrial bond spreads remained at a low level of around 5%. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of industrial bonds, while the strategy of exploring urban investment bonds along the yield curve is more feasible [5][11][13]. 2 Credit Bond Weekly Review: Obvious Supplementary Decline, Short - Duration Bonds are Preferred 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults or overdue payments, no downgrades of corporate ratings or outlooks, and no downgrades of bond ratings during the week. However, there were two major negative events: Pengbo Telecom Media Group Co., Ltd. was fined for failing to disclose major guarantees and lawsuits, and Guanghui Automobile Service Co., Ltd. was criticized for failing to disclose its 2024 annual report on time [16][17][18]. 2.2 Primary Issuance: Three Consecutive Weeks of Net Inflows, a Significant Increase in the Number of Cancelled Issuances - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds remained high. From September 22 to 28, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 435.5 billion yuan, a 32% increase from the previous week. The total repayment amount also increased to 358.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net inflow of 76.6 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows. - Thirteen credit bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance last week, with a total scale of 8.2 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week and reaching a high for the year. The issuance cost of new medium - and low - grade bonds increased last week [19][22]. 2.3 Secondary Trading: High Pressure of Supplementary Decline, Continuous Improvement in Liquidity - Last week, credit bonds of all grades and maturities experienced a supplementary decline, with an average increase of about 7bp, and the 5Y AAA - grade bond increased by up to 10bp. Credit spreads widened across the board, with a central value of about 5bp. - The term spreads of 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y for medium - to high - grade bonds widened, while the grade spreads of AA - AAA widened at the short end and narrowed at the long end, with an overall fluctuation range of around ±2bp. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in each province widened by about 5bp on average, with relatively small differences among provinces. The credit spreads of industrial bonds in each industry also widened by about 5bp, with no obvious differences among industries. - The liquidity of credit bonds continued to improve, with the turnover rate increasing by 0.27 percentage points to 2.03% compared to the previous week. The top ten bonds in terms of turnover rate were mainly issued by central and local state - owned enterprises. Four credit bonds had a discount of more than 10%. Among individual entities, the top five industrial entities with the largest spread widening were all real - estate enterprises [23][27][30].

Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views - The bond market performed poorly in Q3 due to multiple factors, including policy - induced macro - narrative reversals, a decline in the bond market's profit - making effect, and regulatory - induced redemptions of bond funds. As Q4 approaches, historical experience shows that interest rates are more likely to decline in Q4. The report explores possible paths for bond market sentiment repair [6][9]. - The market has reached a consensus on a weak present but improving future for the fundamentals and continuous loosening of the capital market. Thus, poor Q4 fundamental data and loose capital cannot significantly drive down bond market interest rates [6][12]. - Central bank actions are still crucial. The deviation between the capital market and bond market interest rates is due to large government bond issuances. If the supply of interest - rate bonds increases in Q4, the central bank is expected to strengthen monetary policy. Observing changes in central bank monetary policy or a downward - guiding of inter - bank interest rates may be a path for bond market sentiment repair [6][13][16]. - Attention should be paid to the end of the withdrawal of trading funds. The bond market adjustment caused by regulatory policies on funds is more of a frictional effect. In the long run, funds are likely to return to the bond market. Monitoring regulatory rhythms, institutional responses, and the profit - taking progress of Q3 short - sellers in Q4 is advisable [6][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly View: Possible Paths for Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Q3 bond market performance was poor, affected by policies, the equity market, and regulatory factors. Institutions' behaviors changed, with insurance institutions not eager to allocate and funds having a bad experience in "bottom - fishing". Entering Q4, the report explores paths for bond market sentiment repair [9]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: September PMI Data to be Released 2.1 Domestic PMI Data Release - This week, China will release September PMI data, and the US will release September ADP employment figures and other data [18]. 2.2 This Week's Decline in Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds this week has seasonally declined to a low level, with a planned total issuance of 107.2 billion. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds this week. 33 local bonds are planned to be issued, with a scale of 107.2 billion [21][22][23]. 3. Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: High Bond Market Volatility 3.1 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase at the End of the Quarter - Near the end of the quarter, the central bank carried out 14 - day reverse repurchases. After a 30 - billion - yuan injection on Monday and no further operations in the middle of the week, a 60 - billion - yuan injection on Friday eased capital fluctuations. The net injection of open - market operations totaled 88.06 billion. Capital prices first rose and then fell. Repurchase trading volume also rose and then fell, with an average of about 7.27 trillion per week. Overnight ratios decreased. DR001 and DR007 first rose and then fell. The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit remained at a relatively high level, with high prices. The net financing was - 17.83 billion. The 9 - month and 1 - year maturities accounted for about 44%. Secondary selling pressure was high, and last week's CD interest rates rose to a high level [27][29][35]. 3.2 Continued High Bond Market Volatility - The bond market continued to be highly volatile. At the beginning of the week, the expectation of increased monetary easing was disappointed, and multiple negative factors led to a large - scale bond market adjustment. In the second half of the week, the central bank increased the injection of medium - and long - term liquidity and 14 - day reverse repurchases, easing capital pressure and leading to bond market repair. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds and CDB active bonds changed by 0.4bp and 2bp to 1.8% and 1.96% respectively compared to last week. The yields of interest - rate bonds of various maturities mainly rose, especially those of policy - financial bonds. The 5Y Export - Import Bank bond had the largest increase, rising 4.8bp [48]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Sales and Commodity Housing Transaction Data - On the production side, the operating rates were divided. The daily average crude steel production in early September had a year - on - year growth rate of 1.6%, turning positive from negative. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales improved. The year - on - year growth rate of the commodity housing transaction area turned positive. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 7% and - 2.9% respectively. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and the settlement price of the coking coal active contract futures changed by - 0.1%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index changed by 0.5%, the cement index by 2.4%, and the glass index by 3%. The output of rebar was basically flat, the inventory decreased to 4.72 million tons, and the futures price changed by - 0.6%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 2%, 1.6%, and - 0.3% respectively [55][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry in China [6]. Core Insights - The influence of China's weaponry and equipment is continuously expanding, with a positive outlook on the military trade market [10][12]. - The demand for self-sufficient aircraft engines and components is strengthening, indicating a potential rapid benefit for the industry chain [15]. - The current market conditions suggest a continued positive outlook for the military industry, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments [16]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights several investment targets within the military electronics sector, new materials, and the aircraft engine supply chain, recommending stocks such as Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy), Hongyuan Electronics (603267, Not Rated), and others [3][16]. Industry Developments - The report notes significant advancements in China's naval capabilities, particularly with the Fujian aircraft carrier, which has completed its first catapult launch and landing training with multiple aircraft types, enhancing operational range and combat capabilities [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the urgency for self-sufficient commercial aircraft engines, driven by geopolitical factors and the need for domestic innovation in the aviation sector [15]. Market Performance - The defense and military industry index has shown a slight decline of -0.42%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [19][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" for the petrochemical industry has raised expectations, focusing on enhancing technological innovation, expanding effective investment, and fostering market demand [8] - The green low-carbon industry, particularly green polyester, is expected to experience rapid growth due to new technologies and significant market potential [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report favors companies that have strategically positioned themselves in the green polyester sector, such as Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy). Other recommended stocks include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy), and Huayi Group (600623, Buy). Additionally, companies in the pesticide formulation segment like Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy), Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), and Hailier (603639, Buy) are also highlighted [3] Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant oversupply, making rapid recovery through market-driven policies challenging. However, the long-term outlook for the industry is improving, with lower valuations for leading chemical stocks providing good investment opportunities [8] - The green low-carbon sector, including green methanol, bio-aviation fuel, and green polyester, is gaining market attention due to its vast market space and the need for sustainable development. Companies that capitalize on these trends are expected to achieve rapid growth [8] Recent Developments - The recent "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" emphasizes controlling new refining capacity and supporting key products in electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, while also fostering new application scenarios in emerging fields like renewable energy and low-altitude economy [8]

Group 1 - The index is expected to experience sideways fluctuations with a slight upward trend, closing at 3828 points this week, aligning with previous expectations [3][14]. - High-end manufacturing remains a focus, with sectors such as electric equipment (3.9%), non-ferrous metals (3.5%), and electronics (3.5%) leading the gains this week, indicating continued optimism in this area despite potential risks of chasing high prices [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low-position cyclical stocks with dividend appeal, highlighting a significant improvement in industrial profits, which shifted from a decline of 1.5% last month to a growth of 20.4% this month [7][18]. Group 2 - High-end manufacturing is projected to maintain relative advantages, with particular attention on segments like robotics and deep-sea economy, which are expected to benefit from future policy developments [5][16]. - The robotics sector is anticipated to see growth with the upcoming release of Optimus V3, although there are existing market discrepancies regarding its valuation and progress [5][16]. - The semiconductor sector continues to lead, with the domestic semiconductor index rising by 13.06% and semiconductor equipment index increasing by 11.22%, although a transition to a consolidation phase is expected after the short-term uptrend [5][16]. Group 3 - The deep-sea economy is viewed as a critical national strategy, with expectations for its performance to improve as policies are introduced, despite current market skepticism regarding its commercial value [6][17]. - The report identifies specific sectors such as power, coal, steel, chemicals, and agriculture as having potential for profit recovery, particularly in the context of low PPI and improving market conditions [7][18][19]. - The chemical industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-side dynamics, leading to enhanced profitability and dividend appeal for certain companies [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.36 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 56 times PE for 2025 [3][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 920 million CNY for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 135 million CNY, up 14.7% [2]. - The growth in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025 was particularly strong, with increases of 20.8% and 80.8% respectively, although the non-recurring net profit saw a decline of 31.9% [2]. - The company's AI full-stack system is accelerating, with significant growth in its intelligent computing services and data intelligence product lines, which saw a revenue increase of 50.1% [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 2.062 billion CNY, 2.361 billion CNY, and 2.688 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 252 million CNY, 282 million CNY, and 360 million CNY [5][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 33.5% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [5]. - The company has shown a significant reduction in sales and management expenses, contributing to an overall decrease in the expense ratio from 25.1% in H1 2024 to 22.2% in H1 2025 [9]. Business Segments - The revenue from the collaborative office products was 250 million CNY (+2.0%), while the smart channel product line generated 353 million CNY (+14.8%), and the intelligent computing services and data intelligence product line reached 284 million CNY (+50.1%) [9]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its product lines, which is expected to enhance its growth potential and drive further revenue increases [9].