Core Insights - The report indicates a transitional phase in the cyclical consumption stage, with technology growth entering a left-side layout period [3] - The steel industry is experiencing a significant shift in the global iron ore supply-demand landscape due to the commissioning of major projects [3] Industry Strategy - The steel sector is set to benefit from the official commissioning of the West Mangdu Iron Mine on November 11, 2025, which will enhance China's position from a mere buyer to a significant resource owner, allowing for more active participation in international pricing negotiations [7] - The project includes a 670-kilometer railway and deep-water port, with the first shipment of approximately 200,000 tons of high-grade iron ore expected to be sent to China in mid-November [7] - This strategic move is anticipated to inject strong momentum into the long-term healthy development of China's steel industry across multiple dimensions, including resource security and economic benefits [7] Theme Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with multiple catalysts emerging, suggesting it may enter a left-side layout period [4] - Key upcoming events include the 2025 China Robot Industry Development Conference and the 2025 Shenzhen High-Tech Fair, which will showcase advancements in robotics [4] - Notable company developments include the release of a new humanoid robot by Xiaopeng and Tesla's updates on the mass production of its Optimus robot [4] Market Strategy - The market is currently in a narrow range of fluctuations, with significant sector rotation and differentiation, necessitating a focus on timing for trading to achieve excess returns [7] - The cyclical and consumer sectors have shown strong performance recently, confirming previous strategies that indicated a transition and rebalancing phase [7] - The technology sector, after undergoing adjustments, is now viewed as entering a left-side layout period, with a focus on internal high-low switching [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 206.11 HKD per share [3][5][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of the flash purchase synergy, which is expected to enhance revenue potential. The company has adjusted its GMV and CMR growth forecasts for FY2026-2028, projecting revenues of 10,165/11,481/12,652 billion CNY and net profits of 1,258/1,744/2,013 billion CNY respectively [3][14]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival has seen an extension in its promotional period and simplification of its promotional strategies, which has improved consumer experience and increased order conversion rates. The synergy between the flash purchase and the main site has been enhanced, contributing significantly to order volume [9][12]. - The report notes that new user orders from flash purchases during the Double Eleven period exceeded 100 million, indicating that flash purchase synergy has become a crucial growth driver for the main site [9][12]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are 10,165 billion CNY, 11,481 billion CNY, and 12,652 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 1,258 billion CNY, 1,744 billion CNY, and 2,013 billion CNY [3][11][14]. - The report provides detailed quarterly financial forecasts, indicating a slight revenue growth in FY2026 compared to FY2025, with a projected revenue of 1,016,593 million CNY [15]. Market Performance - The report includes a performance analysis, showing a relative performance of -4.32% over one month and a significant increase of 70.19% over the past year [6]. Valuation - The report calculates the company's market value at 35,846 billion CNY based on a segment valuation approach, leading to a per-share value of 206.11 HKD [3][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.4 CNY based on a 20X PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to improve significantly due to rising gold prices, with a projected increase in earnings per share (EPS) to 1.02 CNY, 1.43 CNY, and 1.56 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][10]. - The company's strategic focus on dual business development in lead-zinc and precious metals is anticipated to enhance its growth potential, especially with the expected rise in precious metal prices [10]. - The company's asset injection process is likely to accelerate following the restructuring of its shareholding, which is expected to further boost its internal growth momentum [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 19,406 million CNY in 2023 to 27,101 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.7% [5][12]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 755 million CNY in 2023 to 2,043 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 38.4% in 2025 [5][12]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 611 million CNY in 2023 to 1,673 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 39.1% in 2025 [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 8.5% in 2023 to 11.9% in 2026 and 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5][12].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that credit bond ETFs will continue to attract capital inflows, with a notable recovery in liquidity observed in October [5][8] - The total circulation scale of credit bond ETFs has approached 500 billion yuan, significantly surpassing that of interest rate bond ETFs, reflecting a strong market sentiment [5][8] - The report anticipates that the credit bond ETF's discount rate may further compress, although transitioning to a premium without a major market event remains challenging [5][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the issuance volume of credit bonds has increased, with a net financing of 92 billion yuan recorded, indicating a positive shift in the financing landscape [29][30] - The average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ rated bonds have decreased, with the average rates at 2.07% and 2.27% respectively, showing a downward trend in financing costs [29][30] - The credit spreads across various grades have narrowed, particularly for longer maturities, with significant compressions observed in the AA grade [32][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.40 CNY based on a PE valuation of 16X for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has seen improvements in its non-recurring performance, with a year-on-year increase in non-recurring net profit of 0.8% for the first three quarters of 2025, despite facing short-term pressure from the oil and gas industry's weak demand [10]. - The company is actively pursuing a high-end product transformation strategy, with a focus on specialty products such as 13Cr, HRSG, and oil cylinder pipes, which are expected to enhance profitability [10]. - The demand for the company's main products, including oil casing and boiler pipes, is anticipated to remain strong due to ongoing investments in the oil and gas extraction and thermal power construction sectors [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 6,085 million CNY, reflecting a 6.8% year-on-year growth, following a decline of 14.5% in 2024 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 589 million CNY in 2025, down 7.1% from the previous year, with an estimated EPS of 0.65 CNY [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 17.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 9.7% [4].

Inflation Trends - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking a significant increase from the previous values of -0.3% and 1% respectively[6] - The tourism CPI in October was notably high at 2.1%, influenced by the Mid-Autumn Festival, compared to 0.9% in the previous month[6] - Food prices showed a year-on-year decrease of -2.9% in October, an improvement from -4.4% in September, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[6] Policy Impact - Government consumption policies have shown a substantial leverage effect, with industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy rising by 2.0%, up from 1.8% in the previous month[6] - The PPI decreased at a slower rate of -2.1% year-on-year in October, an improvement from -2.3% in September, reflecting effective supply-side policies[6] - The prices in traditional high-energy-consuming industries improved, with the PPI for the mining and raw materials sectors increasing by 1.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively[6] Future Outlook - Despite expected inflation declines post-holiday, the effects of various policies are anticipated to continue supporting economic growth, shifting the focus from external to high-quality domestic demand[6] - The implementation of policy-driven financial tools by the end of October is expected to further enhance domestic demand, with tangible results reflected in upcoming data[6] - Risks remain, particularly from geopolitical conflicts that could lead to unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices[6]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 出口转跌非趋势，资本品出口潜力仍在 10 月进出口点评 研究结论 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 降息交易减速，方向尚未改变：——2025 | 2025-11-02 | | --- | --- | | 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 231.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 57.51 billion yuan, up 24.50% year-on-year [11] - The growth is driven by the continuous release of innovative drug research results and accelerated overseas licensing cooperation, contributing to incremental performance [11] - The company has strengthened its innovative pipeline, with significant product approvals and a robust pipeline in various therapeutic areas [11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 22,820 - 2024A: 27,985 - 2025E: 34,184 - 2026E: 38,303 - 2027E: 43,925 - Year-on-year growth rates: 2024A: 22.6%, 2025E: 22.2%, 2026E: 12.0%, 2027E: 14.7% [6][13] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 4,302 - 2024A: 6,337 - 2025E: 8,755 - 2026E: 10,043 - 2027E: 11,403 - Year-on-year growth rates: 2024A: 47.3%, 2025E: 38.2%, 2026E: 14.7%, 2027E: 13.5% [6][13] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2023A: 0.65 - 2024A: 0.95 - 2025E: 1.32 - 2026E: 1.51 - 2027E: 1.72 [6][13] Strategic Developments - The company has achieved significant overseas licensing agreements, with over 800 million USD in upfront payments in the first three quarters of 2025 [11] - Recent collaborations include agreements with GSK, Glenmark, and Braveheart Bio, indicating a strong push towards internationalization [11] - The company is focusing on expanding its innovative drug portfolio, with multiple new drug applications accepted by NMPA [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - profit - taking behavior of convertible bonds has eased, but under the current high absolute price and high valuation, the volatility has intensified and the bond nature has weakened. November may be the last wave of adding positions from the perspective of institutional behavior. The current high - valuation situation is expected to remain unchanged [5][8]. - The view on the future of convertible bonds is neutral. It is difficult for convertible bond valuations to have a logic of continuous strengthening. It is likely to fluctuate around the current point. The key to the subsequent trend lies in equities. Investors should appropriately lower the return expectations of convertible bonds, cash out and switch in a timely manner, and low - position institutions can actively allocate on dips. The trading opportunities of convertible bonds are greater than the trend opportunities [5][8]. - Despite the overseas capital market turmoil, the domestic market has slightly recovered this week, hovering around 4000 points, indicating sufficient market confidence. Some over - valued sectors have corrected in the short term, and the weight sectors have temporarily attracted attention. The technology - led slow - bull market remains unchanged, and the subsequent equity trend is still bullish [5][8]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Double - Low Performance Stands Out, Style Slightly Switches - The pre - profit - taking behavior of convertible bonds has eased, but with high absolute prices and valuations, volatility has increased and bond nature has weakened. November may be the last chance for institutional position - adding. The high - valuation situation is expected to remain. The view on convertible bonds is neutral, with the key to subsequent trends in equities. Investors should adjust expectations, cash out and switch, and low - position institutions can allocate on dips. The domestic market has recovered slightly, and the technology - led slow - bull market remains [8]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Index Approaches Previous High, Valuation Slightly Rises 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Indexes Close Higher, Trading Volume Declines - This week, most equity indexes closed slightly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index led the gains with a 1.08% increase, while the North - Bound 50 Index fell 3.79%. In terms of industries, power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the rise, while beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology led the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased by 3108.43 billion yuan to 2.01 trillion yuan. The top - ten rising convertible bonds last week were Zhongneng, Zhenhua, etc., and some convertible bonds were more active in trading [11]. 2.2 Trading Volume Continues to Increase, Double - Low and Large - Cap High - Rating Convertible Bonds Perform Well - This week, convertible bonds performed well, following the rise of equities. The average daily trading volume slightly increased to 68.526 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.86%, the parity center rose 1.0% to 114.4 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center remained flat at 18.7%. In terms of style, double - low and large - cap high - rating convertible bonds performed well, while high - price and small convertible bonds performed weakly [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing overseas electricity shortages with Chinese solutions, particularly in the context of rising industrial electricity costs due to increasing energy prices in major countries [9][14]. - It highlights the potential for significant growth in the electrolytic aluminum sector driven by export demand, as overseas power supply issues lead to production cuts [14]. - The report also points out investment opportunities in the special steel sector, particularly related to advancements in nuclear fusion technology [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is expected to benefit from a surge in overseas energy storage demand, with prices across the supply chain showing signs of recovery [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report suggests that electrolytic aluminum, special steel, and lithium carbonate are primarily driven by domestic demand, but it presents a contrasting view that focuses on overseas electricity shortages as a growth opportunity [9][13]. - The electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for a revaluation due to strong production cut expectations stemming from overseas electricity shortages [14]. - The special steel sector is highlighted for its potential growth linked to nuclear fusion advancements, with significant demand expected for materials that can withstand extreme conditions [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is experiencing a price rebound, with recent contracts indicating a positive outlook for the entire supply chain [16]. 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing short-term profitability pressures, with slight declines in iron and steel production noted [17][19]. - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks are decreasing, indicating a tightening supply [24]. - The report notes a general decline in steel prices, with various product categories experiencing price drops [34]. - Cost pressures are evident, with mixed trends in raw material prices impacting profitability across different steel production processes [27][30]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report indicates a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, reflecting a robust supply response to market demand [39]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures showing substantial growth [43]. - Price trends for lithium and nickel are mixed, with lithium prices experiencing a notable decline while cobalt prices have seen increases [48][50].