Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - Rising raw material prices have led some brands to initiate price increases, with leading companies demonstrating stronger pricing power and higher profit certainty. The upcoming CES event is expected to catalyze interest in smart consumer hardware [2] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. Leading companies exhibit higher operational efficiency and stability during cost-up cycles, making them preferred choices for conservative allocations. Recommended stocks include Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated), and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [2] 2. International expansion remains a long-term focus, with a potential valuation shift expected in 2026. Recommended stock is Stone Technology (688169, buy) [2] Summary by Sections - **Price Increases**: Midea announced price hikes of 2% and 4% for certain models starting January 3 and January 5, 2026, respectively, due to significant increases in copper prices, which have risen by 11% over the past month and 42% over the past year. Copper is a key raw material, accounting for approximately 20% of air conditioner costs [6] - **Profitability Mechanism**: The report estimates that a 30% increase in copper prices would necessitate a 5% price increase to fully offset cost increases, while Midea's price hikes exceed 6%, indicating effective cost management strategies [6] - **CES Focus Areas**: The report identifies three main areas of interest for CES: 1. AI glasses with over 50 brands showcasing new products 2. Robotics, including new laser radar lawnmowers and advanced cleaning robots 3. Other smart consumer hardware innovations such as AI companion robots and 3D printing [6]

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The U.S. launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela on January 3, 2026, capturing President Maduro, signaling a strategic shift towards consolidating influence in Latin America[7] - The immediate economic impact on China-Venezuela trade is limited, with exports to Venezuela accounting for only 0.14% and imports for 0.06% of China's total trade in 2024[7] - However, the event raises concerns about increased uncertainty for China's trade and investment in the region due to U.S. strategic adjustments[7] Group 2: Trade and Investment Implications - China's exports to Latin America represent 7.7% of total exports, while imports from the region account for 9.3%, indicating significant reliance on Latin American markets[7] - Agricultural and mineral imports from Latin America constitute 42% and 16.1% of China's total imports in these categories, respectively, highlighting potential supply risks[7] - Direct investment from China to Venezuela is minimal, under 0.1%, but overall investment in Latin America ranges from 7.5% to 10%, suggesting a broader regional concern[7] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The military action may further diminish Chinese enterprises' confidence in investing in Latin America, as evidenced by a slowdown in capital goods exports to the region in 2024[7] - The event could reinforce a strategic pivot for Chinese companies towards "Belt and Road" countries, providing new opportunities amid U.S. regional adjustments[7] - Despite U.S. trade regulations, China's export resilience was evident in 2025, with significant contributions from the EU, ASEAN, and Africa, while Latin America's share in export growth declined[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements and innovations in edge AI, predicting accelerated integration into various hardware products and industrial applications by 2026 [9][10] - Key players in the edge AI sector include chip manufacturers, terminal product manufacturers, and core component manufacturers, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities [3][10] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on the upgrade and innovation breakthroughs in edge AI, with recommended stocks including: - Edge AI main control chip manufacturers: Amlogic, Aojie Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Espressif Technology, Starshine Technology, Rockchip [3][10] - Terminal product manufacturers: Lenovo Group, Xiaomi Group, Luxshare Precision, Linying Intelligent Manufacturing, BYD Electronics, Lens Technology, Ezviz, Innosilicon [3][10] - Core component manufacturers: Huanxu Electronics, Sunny Optical Technology, Orbbec, SUTENG, STMicroelectronics, OmniVision, and Pegatron [3][10]

External Factors - The primary driver for the RMB appreciation in 2025 is the weakening of the USD, which has declined by nearly 10% this year due to three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1] - The USD index fell to around 97 in December after failing to break the 100 resistance level, confirming a downward trend[19] - The expected mild depreciation of the USD is projected to be around 3% in 2026, with a "low first, high later" pattern anticipated[24] Internal Factors - The internal economic and policy environment in China is stabilizing, contributing to the RMB's appreciation[1] - China's exports have shown robust growth, exceeding expectations, particularly after tariff adjustments, leading to a steady appreciation channel for the USD/CNY exchange rate[14] - The internal economic surprise indices for both China and the US are trending downward, indicating limited support for the RMB from internal factors in the short term[27] Supply and Demand Factors - The supply and demand dynamics have not fully played out this year, with a decrease in market settlement willingness under a strong dollar environment[16] - Seasonal increases in foreign income in December may lead to higher settlement rates, potentially supporting RMB appreciation[21] - The rising implied volatility of the RMB and the risk reversal options favoring RMB appreciation indicate a market expectation of a wider trading range for the currency[27] Market Implications - The RMB's appreciation is expected to benefit foreign capital inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, favoring quality and growth styles[32] - The report emphasizes that the stock market's performance and fundamental improvements are more likely to drive RMB appreciation rather than the exchange rate itself influencing the stock market[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle trade-in subsidy policy is expected to boost marginal improvements in passenger car demand in Q1 2026, with subsidies remaining at the same cap as in 2025 but shifting from fixed amounts to percentage-based subsidies [8][11] - The report highlights the anticipated release of Tesla's Optimus V3 in Q1 2026, which is expected to increase interest in the robotics sector, with numerous domestic companies preparing for IPOs [12] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for companies involved in overseas expansion, reflecting strong demand for overseas orders and indicating that international business will become a significant growth point for automotive parts companies [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Companies in the automotive supply chain that are expected to benefit include Tesla, Figure, Zhiyuan, and Yushu, with a focus on humanoid robotics, liquid cooling, and autonomous driving technology [3][14] - Specific liquid cooling related stocks include Yingweike, Yinlun, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Feilong, and Chuanhuan Technology [3][14] - Other related stocks include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, and several others, with a total of over 30 companies in the robotics supply chain preparing for IPOs [3][14][15] Market Trends - The report notes a decline in weekly passenger car sales, with a 13% year-on-year drop in wholesale sales during the week of December 22-28, 2025 [16] - The automotive parts sector outperformed the broader market, with a 3.63% increase, while the overall automotive industry saw mixed results [35][36] Company Announcements - Geely Auto reported a December 2025 sales figure of 236,800 units, a 13% increase year-on-year, and set a 2026 sales target of 3.45 million units [47] - NIO delivered 48,100 vehicles in December 2025, marking a 54.6% year-on-year increase, with a total annual delivery of 326,000 units [49] - XPeng delivered 37,500 vehicles in December 2025, achieving a total of 429,400 units for the year, a 126% increase [48]

Group 1 - The core view is that the index may experience a pullback, but this will not change the upward trend, and the pullback provides an opportunity to focus on mid-cap blue chips in the chemical sector [2][10] Group 2 - Market analysis indicates that the index may have a pullback, which offers a chance for positioning; the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index aligns with previous expectations, and the pullback does not alter the overall upward trend [3][11] - Factors influencing investor sentiment include the rebound in the Hong Kong market and geopolitical events in South America, although the latter may lead to a short-term market correction [3][11] Group 3 - The investment opportunities are expected to arise in mid-cap blue chips with moderate risk characteristics, particularly in the cyclical sector, focusing on the chemical industry where supply optimization and improving profit margins are anticipated [3][12] Group 4 - The report highlights thematic investments in areas such as aerospace satellites, domestic AI, semiconductors, and nuclear fusion, with each sector showing potential for growth and investment opportunities [4][13] - The aerospace satellite sector remains a focal point, with ongoing IPO progress and various applications expected to accelerate [4][13] - Domestic AI is gaining attention as domestic computing power development accelerates amid challenges in overseas narratives [4][13] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see expansion and domestic substitution, with significant capital movements in key companies [4][13] - The nuclear fusion sector is anticipated to experience a series of industrial catalysts, moving from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand [4][13] Group 5 - The solid-state battery sector is noted for its prolonged adjustment period, with potential catalysts expected in the first quarter, making it a point of interest for investors [5][14]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"下部分行业格局快速变化导致就业压力的风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 旧换新"政策观察 追求精细化，开启新阶段——2026 年"以 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 04 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The rise in PX prices has triggered a bullish trend in the petrochemical sector, indicating long-term recovery opportunities for the industry [2][7] - The report highlights that the increase in PX prices, with futures rising over 800 CNY/ton and spot prices up about 340 CNY/ton, has improved profit expectations for refining companies [7] - The report emphasizes that the refining industry has faced prolonged downturns, with major companies encountering challenges such as declining domestic demand for refined oil and stagnant export quotas [7] - The appointment of new leadership at China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is seen as a potential catalyst for industry recovery [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended leading companies in the refining sector include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) [3] - The report expresses optimism for recovery opportunities across various chemical sub-industries, including MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) and companies in the PVC sector such as Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), and Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated) [3] - In the phosphoric chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) are highlighted due to growth driven by energy storage [3] - The oxalic acid industry recommendations include Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a market strategy focused on maintaining stability during fluctuations, with a particular emphasis on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for timing and selection [4] - The steel industry is highlighted for its transformation towards high-end, green, and digital advancements, which is expected to enhance competitiveness in the special steel sector [4] - The report suggests that the controlled nuclear fusion sector may experience ongoing catalysts, indicating potential for sustained thematic investment opportunities [5] Market Strategy - The index has shown a rebound, recently surpassing 3900 points, with a clear oscillation pattern observed since late August [4] - A mid-term perspective is recommended, focusing on sectors with moderate valuations, low institutional allocation, and improving marginal conditions, particularly in advanced manufacturing and electronics [4] - Specific ETFs are mentioned for investment, including the CSI 500 ETF and cash flow ETFs, which align with the suggested sectors [4] Industry Strategy - The steel industry is undergoing significant policy adjustments aimed at reducing crude steel production and eliminating inefficient capacities, promoting a shift towards high-end special steel and high-performance materials [4] - Companies like CITIC Special Steel and Nanjing Steel are recommended for their focus on high-end special steel products and their potential for growth in exports [4] - The report indicates that the controlled nuclear fusion sector is transitioning from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to drive substantial investment demand in the future [5]

商贸零售行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国补落地，看好智能眼镜及商超百货 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：国补落地，利好智能眼镜及百货商超板块。 智能眼镜发展有望加速，眼镜产业链及部分专业零售企业受益：相关标的康耐特光学 (02276，未评级)、博士眼镜(300622，未评级)、明月镜片(301101，买入)、爱施德 (002416，未评级)、天音控股(000829，未评级)等。 百货商超调改有望加速，业绩具备韧性的区域头部零售企业受益：相关标的重庆百货 (600729，未评级)、步步高(002251，未评级)、合百集团(000417，未评级)、汇嘉时代 (603101，未评级)、永辉超市(601933，未评级)、新华百货(600785，未评级)。 其它：相关标的安克创新(300866，未评级)、绿联科技(301606，未评级)。 商贸零售行业动态跟踪 —— 国补落地，看好智能眼镜及商超百货 Tabl e_Disclai mer 分析师申明 风险提示： 行业竞争加剧、政策支持消费力度回落、智能眼镜渗透率不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 商贸零售行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 04 日 看 ...