Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for performance [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand dynamics, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The market has shown a slight recovery in risk appetite due to favorable domestic insurance investment policies and a shift in U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - The report suggests that the current market environment favors structural opportunities within advanced manufacturing, non-bank finance, technology, and cyclical sectors [9] Sector Strategy - The brokerage sector is undergoing a transformation driven by regulatory support for quality firms, which is expected to enhance leverage and profitability [5][9] - The report outlines a differentiated development pattern in the brokerage industry, focusing on strengthening leading firms while allowing smaller institutions to specialize [9] Thematic Strategy - The military sector is poised for growth with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing new production capabilities in unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [6][9] - The report identifies potential growth areas in military trade and civil applications, particularly as domestic power systems advance [6][9]

风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 淡化总量，追求效能——理解 12 月政治局 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 非美地区进口需求韧性绝非无源之水： | 2025-12-02 | | --- | --- | | 2026 年出口展望 | | | 难有 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in exports to the United States, with rare earth prices expected to recover [2] - Supply constraints are strengthening demand, leading to a potential price recovery in the rare earth sector [8] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with resource quotas and technological advantages in the rare earth industry [8] Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - In October 2025, China exported 5,473 tons of permanent magnets, a slight month-on-month decrease of 5.2% but a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [8] - Exports to the United States saw a substantial month-on-month increase of 56.1%, totaling 656 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [8] - The cumulative export quantity for the first ten months of 2025 was 45,290.5 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [8] Price Trends - The export value of rare earths in October was 1.92 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 4.7% month-on-month, with a per-ton price of 350,300 RMB [8] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide fluctuated, reaching a high of 563,600 RMB per ton and dropping to a low of 501,300 RMB before recovering to 535,600 RMB by the end of October [8] Supply and Demand Outlook - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to slow growth in domestic rare earth mining quotas and geopolitical issues affecting imports [8] - Demand is anticipated to strengthen due to seasonal peaks in the electric vehicle and wind power sectors, alongside new production in humanoid robots [8] - The report predicts a sustained tight balance in supply and demand, with rare earth prices likely to rise steadily [8] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on global high-performance magnet leaders, particularly Jinli Permanent Magnet (300748, Buy) [8] - Long-term focus on leading companies in the rare earth industry, such as Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy), benefiting from an optimized supply structure [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [27][28][29] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, convertible bonds rose slightly, and the valuation continued to decline as previously predicted, but then rebounded significantly after reaching the previous average. The anti - decline attribute of convertible bonds remained strong. The valuation rebound was mainly driven by equity - biased convertible bonds, while debt - biased ones were still weak. There is a clear valuation bottom, and the valuation top has loosened [6][9] - There is still strong support from the supply and demand sides, and the equity market is optimistic due to various policies. Although the current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, there are still structural opportunities. Attention can be appropriately given to oversold bottom - position and defensive varieties. Be vigilant against the unexpected forced redemption risk of high - premium individual bonds. In December, short - term allocation can be made if there is a correction, and trading opportunities are greater than trend opportunities [6][9] - Last week, the equity market continued to rise driven by various positive factors. However, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment at the end of the year. Overseas, the market was waiting for the result of the Fed's December interest - rate cut, and domestically, it was waiting for the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference. Institutional funds were under pressure from performance assessment and position adjustment, showing a cautious and optimistic attitude overall [6][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Valuation Rebounds after Decline, and Style Continues to Differentiate - Convertible bonds rose slightly last week. The valuation continued to decline as predicted, then rebounded significantly after reaching the previous average. The anti - decline attribute was strong. The rebound was mainly driven by equity - biased convertible bonds, and debt - biased ones were weak. The valuation bottom is clear, and the top has loosened [9] - There is strong support from supply and demand, and the equity market is optimistic due to policies. Despite the low cost - performance of convertible bonds, there are structural opportunities. Pay attention to oversold bottom - position and defensive varieties, guard against forced redemption risks of high - premium bonds. In December, short - term allocation can be considered for corrections, with more trading opportunities [9] - The equity market rose last week due to positive factors. But there was wait - and - see sentiment at year - end. Overseas awaited Fed's decision, and domestically awaited the Central Economic Work Conference. Institutional funds faced assessment and adjustment pressure, showing cautious optimism [9] 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Rise Slightly, and Valuation Rebounds after Decline 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Close Higher, and Trading Volume Continues to Decline - The equity market was weak first and then strong last week, continuing to rebound. Most indexes rose, such as the ChiNext Index (1.86%), the BeiZheng 50 (1.49%), and the CSI 300 (1.28%), while only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell slightly (0.08%) [13] - In terms of industries, non - ferrous metals, communication, and national defense and military industry led the gains, while media, real estate, and beauty care led the losses. The average daily trading volume decreased by 44.115 billion yuan to 1.69 trillion yuan [13] - The top ten rising convertible bonds last week were Yakelai Convertible Bond, Weidao Convertible Bond, etc. The more active ones in trading were Furong Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, etc [13] 3.2.2 Significant Trading Volume Contraction, and High - price, Medium - and High - rated Convertible Bonds Perform Well - Convertible bonds rose slightly last week. The valuation rebounded significantly after reaching the previous average, and the average daily trading volume dropped significantly to 50.91 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%, the parity center decreased 0.3% to 110.7 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased 0.3% to 20.6% [20] - In terms of style, high - price, medium - and high - rated convertible bonds performed well last week, while large - cap and double - low convertible bonds performed weakly [20]

国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 朱雀三号首飞成功入轨，卫星互联网产业 生态大会成功举办，火箭卫星有望共振 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 鲍丙文 | 执业证书编号：S0860124070016 | | --- | --- | | | baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 亚太局势不确定性加剧，我国装备建设或 | 2025-11-24 | | --- | --- | | 将提速，关注新质战斗力 | | | 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 | 2025-11-16 | | 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质战斗力 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 资金难收紧，债市难大涨 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | △ * = li | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情：固定收益市 | ...

国补高基数带电承压，开拓新业务亏损加 大 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们调整盈利预测，预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 13040/13479/14230 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 13382/14151/14981 亿元），经调整归母净利润为 263/225/442 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 271/438/525 亿元）。参考可比公司给 予 2026 年 11X PE 估值，加上公司股权投资价值计算得公司目标市值为 5023 亿 元，对应每股股价 173.32 港元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.100），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：外卖亏损收缩不及预期，以旧换新政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,303,975 | 1,347,877 | 1,423,025 | | 同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a strengthened expectation for a market style shift towards mid-cap blue chips, with investment opportunities identified in the consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors of mid-cap blue chips [3][13]. Market Analysis - The market continues its rebound, with recent news regarding adjustments to insurance companies' stock investment risk factors and comments from Chairman Wu Qing reinforcing the trend of index fluctuations. This combination of lower risk assessments, a slight increase in risk-free rates, and a convergence of risk preferences towards the middle suggests ongoing investment opportunities in companies with moderate risk profiles [4][14]. - The risk assessment is expected to decline as Chairman Wu's remarks paint a more stable and predictable long-term development outlook, alleviating investor concerns about the long-term prospects of the Chinese capital market. Additionally, the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies reduces the capital occupation cost for investing in A-shares, encouraging greater equity asset allocation [4][14]. - There is a potential slight increase in risk-free rates as insurance companies may shift more funds from fixed-income assets to stocks, which could support the risk-free rate due to improved expectations for the capital market's efficiency in serving the real economy and new productive forces [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has consistently anticipated a trend towards technology and dividends. The report suggests that the current market style of extreme risk is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to be found in stocks with moderate risk characteristics. The mid-cap blue chip market, which has been dormant for four years, is expected to rise again [6][16]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-cap blue chips across three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been underperforming for years, is approaching a turning point. Many consumer stocks are undervalued, and supply constraints may lead to price increases. Focus areas include mid-sized liquor companies, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care [7][17]. 2. The cyclical sector is experiencing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic metals (such as antimony and rare earths), industrial metals (copper and aluminum), and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are seeing improved supply-demand dynamics [7][17]. 3. The manufacturing sector is shifting from "dream narratives" to "reality verification." Investment in this sector should focus on validating orders and revenues rather than speculative stories. Key areas include communications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery, which are expected to show consistent performance [7][17]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: 1. Aerospace satellites: There is market divergence regarding the progress of the satellite industry next year, with expectations for continuous event catalysts related to reusable rockets, which could significantly boost industry development. The pace of industry IPOs is expected to accelerate, with opportunities in satellite constellation networking, satellite bidding, commercial rockets, and terminal applications [8][18]. 2. Upstream price increases: Supply constraints and structural demand growth are expected to provide price elasticity for related products, particularly in the upstream of the new energy industry, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [8][20]. 3. Semiconductor expansion and domestic substitution: Domestic wafer fabs are anticipated to expand next year, and the capitalization processes of domestic memory chip leaders are progressing. Attention should be given to domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials for domestic substitution [8][20]. 4. Artificial intelligence: Recent market divergences have been digested, and expectations for industry development are likely to continue rising, with a focus on robotics and computing power [8][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 50.66 CNY based on a 34x PE valuation for 2026 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit from 320 million CNY in 2025 to 583 million CNY in 2027, with a revised forecast reflecting an increase in gross margin [4][12]. - The acquisition of a 51% stake in a liquid cooling technology company is aimed at enhancing the company's data center business, which is becoming increasingly essential [11]. - The demand for thermal management solutions is expected to grow, particularly in AI-enabled devices, positioning the company to benefit from this trend [11]. Financial Forecasts - The company's projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 2.09 billion CNY, 2.94 billion CNY, and 3.96 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 33.3%, 40.7%, and 34.7% [6][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 31.0% in 2024 to 34.0% in 2025, before stabilizing at around 32.3% by 2027 [6][12]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 12.9% in 2024 to 15.3% in 2025, reflecting the company's operational efficiency [6][12]. Business Developments - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond graphite materials to include a comprehensive range of thermal management solutions, which are critical for various applications including smartphones and data centers [11]. - The company has established strong partnerships with leading clients in various sectors, including industrial, automotive, and medical, enhancing its market position [11].