报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 债市波动加大 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | 低利率，破局——2026 年债市展望 | 2025-12- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a relative strength of over 5% compared to the market benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The domestic sales performance aligns with expectations, with a gradual transition into a post-subsidy era in 2026. In November 2025, home appliance sales reached 10.49 million units, down 31.8%, with domestic sales at 4.05 million units, down 39.8%, and exports at 6.44 million units, down 25.6% [7]. - The new national standard for electric two-wheelers is being implemented, with a significant inventory replenishment expected in the first half of 2026. The new models are being introduced, and a concentrated restocking period is anticipated [7]. - Key players in the cleaning appliance sector are undergoing ownership changes, which may impact market dynamics. iRobot is undergoing bankruptcy restructuring, while the founder of追觅科技 is acquiring a controlling stake in 嘉美包装 [7]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market is experiencing a decline, which was anticipated. The central economic work conference confirmed the continuation of national subsidy policies into 2026, with adjustments expected to enhance service consumption [3][7]. Electric Two-Wheelers - The implementation of the new national standard for electric two-wheelers began on September 1, 2025, leading to the cessation of production and sales of old standard models. A significant inventory depletion is expected by the end of December 2025, with new models set to launch soon [7]. Key Players and Market Changes - iRobot's bankruptcy restructuring is expected to maintain brand operations but may not significantly alter market dynamics. The acquisition of 嘉美包装 by 追觅科技's founder could lead to strategic shifts in the cleaning appliance sector [7].

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a focus on precise timing to capture excess returns within the established range around 3900 points [2][3] - A mid-term perspective suggests selecting mid-cap blue-chip stocks in sectors with improving marginal conditions, particularly those benefiting from global supply chain restructuring and financial attributes [2][3] Industry Strategy - In the chemical sector, oxalic acid is anticipated to experience a tightening supply-demand dynamic, leading to a potential upturn in market conditions. The primary downstream applications for oxalic acid include rare earths, pharmaceuticals, and the new energy sector [2][3] - The rapid growth in lithium iron phosphate production is expected to make the new energy sector the largest application area for oxalic acid, with projected additional demand exceeding 180,000 tons due to new production capacities coming online [2][3] - The MLCC (Multi-layer Ceramic Capacitor) industry is poised to benefit from strong downstream demand driven by AI applications, with the demand for MLCCs expected to surge as AI servers require significantly more components than traditional servers [3]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 风格反转，年底或有抢跑可能 研究结论 可转债市场周观察 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅回落，股性转债继续领涨：可转 | 2025-12-16 | | --- | --- | | 债市场周观察 | | | 低利率，破局——2026 年债市展望 | 2025-12-14 | | 估值补跌 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 波动跨年，关注 3Y 以内城投 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 信用债市场周观察 | | --- | | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 估值小幅回落，股性转债继续领涨：可转 | 2025-12-16 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the forklift industry, indicating a strong investment opportunity with expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% [3][15]. Core Insights - Forklift sales are experiencing structural improvements, with increased working hours and utilization rates, suggesting sustained demand from downstream sectors [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in forklift sales, with total sales reaching 119,700 units in November 2025, a 14.1% increase compared to the previous year. Domestic sales accounted for 75,200 units, up 23.9%, while exports reached 44,500 units, a 0.7% increase [8]. - The average working hours and utilization rates for forklifts have risen, with November 2025 figures showing 108 hours and 66.3% respectively, compared to 106 hours and 58.5% in October 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency [8][11]. - Policy support is expected to enhance growth certainty in the forklift sector, with government initiatives aimed at boosting domestic demand and infrastructure development in logistics [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Forklift sales in November 2025 reached 119,700 units, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase. Domestic sales were 75,200 units, up 23.9%, while exports were 44,500 units, a 0.7% increase [8]. Operational Metrics - The average working hours for forklifts increased to 108 hours in November 2025, with a utilization rate of 66.3%, both showing improvements from the previous month and year [8][11]. Policy Environment - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies on the forklift industry, particularly the focus on domestic demand and the development of smart logistics infrastructure [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the basic chemical industry, particularly focusing on oxalic acid [5]. Core Insights - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise due to the growth in high-density lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) in the downstream market, presenting an upward opportunity for the industry [3][26]. - Key players in the oxalic acid market include Hualu Chemical (600426, Buy) and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy), with other notable mentions being Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Fengyuan Co., Ltd. (002805, Not Rated), and Jinmei Technology (600844, Not Rated) [3][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Battery Leaders Increasing Investment in Oxalic Acid-Based High-Density LiFePO4 - The report highlights the strategic moves by leading battery manufacturers, such as CATL, to enhance their supply chain security for high-density LiFePO4, indicating a structural opportunity in the industry despite the overall market moving towards commoditization [12][8]. 2. Advantages of Oxalic Acid-Based LiFePO4 in High-Density Applications - Oxalic acid-based LiFePO4 demonstrates superior performance and process advantages, particularly in high-density applications, which are driven by the increasing demand for fast-charging and high-capacity energy storage solutions [16][22]. - The report notes that the demand growth rate for oxalic acid-based LiFePO4 is expected to surpass that of traditional LiFePO4, indicating a gradual increase in market penetration [16]. 3. Oxalic Acid Expected to Experience Upward Market Trends - The report anticipates a tightening supply-demand dynamic for oxalic acid, driven by its primary applications in rare earth, pharmaceuticals, and the rapidly growing renewable energy sector [26][27]. - The projected increase in production capacity for oxalic acid is limited in the near term, which is expected to contribute to a favorable market environment [39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading oxalic acid producers such as Hualu Chemical and Wankai New Materials, while also considering other related companies like Xinjiang Tianye and Jinmei Technology for their potential growth [3][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The U.S. is advancing its lunar return plan, which may lead to increased international competition in space strategy, benefiting China's rocket technology and space operations [8][11] - The proximity of low Earth orbit satellites between China and the U.S. highlights the need for enhanced space traffic management and situational awareness [12][16] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to clarify new equipment construction plans, emphasizing the importance of unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and operational informatization [17] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on commercial aerospace, military trade, and new quality combat capabilities as key investment areas [9][17] - Specific recommended stocks include: - Commercial Aerospace: Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Haige Communication (002465, Buy), and others [17] - Engine & Fuel Chain: West Superconductor (688122, Buy) and others [17] - New Quality Domains: New Light Optoelectronics (688011, Increase) and others [17] - Military Electronics: Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy) and others [17] - Military Trade/Main Equipment: Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) and others [17] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) rose by 1.53%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [19][21] - The report notes that the defense and military sector ranked 11th out of 31 in terms of weekly performance [22] Key News and Developments - The report highlights significant developments such as the successful first flight of the Rainbow-7 high-altitude stealth drone and the establishment of a permanent lunar outpost by 2030 as part of the U.S. space strategy [26][27] - It also mentions the ongoing military trade dynamics and the implications of recent geopolitical events on the defense sector [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

美国通胀风险预计将继续弱化 ——2025 年 11 月美国 CPI 数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 美国经济硬着陆的风险。美国通胀大幅反弹的风险。 美联储降息节奏不及预期的风险。假设条件变化影响测算结果的风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 鹰派降息变鸽派， ...