Group 1 - The report indicates that multi-strategy approaches, particularly A-share equity strategies and CTA strategies, are currently favored. Equity assets have returned to a state of fluctuation, with enhanced index strategies showing signs of recovery, and there are still opportunities for allocation in A-share equity strategies. In the context of ongoing trends in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as increased volatility in non-ferrous metals, CTA strategies continue to play a role in enhancing returns and reducing volatility in asset allocation [7][55]. - The performance of bank wealth management products has been positive overall, but there has not been a corresponding expansion in scale. Products in the commodity and derivative categories, as well as equity-related wealth management products, have led the gains. However, aside from a slight net increase in mixed wealth management products, the remaining categories have generally seen a decline in their existing scale [32][55]. Group 2 - In the recent week, the performance of multi-strategy approaches showed that small-cap index enhancement and CTA strategies led the gains, with the median return of public neutral strategies turning positive. Large-cap index enhancement strategies, however, showed weaker returns [10]. - The report highlights that the public neutral strategy products have seen an overall recovery in returns, with the highest, lowest, and median returns for public neutral strategy products being 2.39%, -1.05%, and 0.18% respectively. Private neutral strategy products had returns of 3.38%, -5.26%, and -0.43% respectively [26][27]. - The private CTA strategy remains strong, with the highest, lowest, and median returns for private CTA strategy products being 6.09%, -1.94%, and 0.35% respectively, indicating robust performance in the context of ongoing trends in precious metals and increased volatility in commodities [29][31].

基金研究 | 专题报告 配置型基金系列：细分赛道 Stable beta+ 基金优选 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | 张思宇 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120001 | | --- | --- | | | zhangsiyu1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王继恒 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090004 | | | wangjiheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | 周期热度持续，关注化工主题基金：2026 年 01 月主动权益基金配置月观点 2026-01-08 公募主观多头基金定量跟踪月报（截至 2025 年 12 月底） 2026-01-05 基准之上，何以为胜：主动权益基金基准 的选择与锚定 2025-12-19 基金研究 | 专题报告 —— 配置型基金系列：细分赛道 Stable beta+ 基金优选 目 录 风险提示 指数分类有所错漏，数据计算有所遗误。本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行计 算，对基金产品和基金管理人的研究分析结论并不预示其未来表现，也不 ...

朝闻道 20260123 市场策略 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹 风格策略 中盘蓝筹压舱，科技成长助攻 投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹 主题策略 锌：供需向好，有望补涨 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧等风险 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 21 日 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 指数维持震荡，方向还在中盘蓝筹：朝闻 道 20260121 2026-01-20 指数震荡整固，优化持仓结构：朝闻道 20260119 2026-01-17 扰动已现震荡归，中盘蓝筹周期巍：朝闻 道 20260116 2026-01-15 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 行业策略 化工：从份额向回报，行业预期正迎来重构 ⚫ 在有力举措下，A 股市场开始降温，两融余额和全 A 日成交额显著下行，权益市场 暂时告别此前的单边上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, but the mid-term outlook remains positive due to the company's multi-brand international competitiveness [2][9] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts slightly downward for the main brand's revenue growth over the next three years, while also increasing the sales and management expense ratios for 2026 and 2027 [10] - The target price is set at 113.00 HKD, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2026 [3][10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2023A: 62,356 - 2024A: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,495 - 2026E: 85,296 - 2027E: 92,805 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 16.2%, 13.6%, 10.8%, 8.7%, 8.8% [4] - Operating Profit (in million RMB): - 2023A: 15,367 - 2024A: 16,595 - 2025E: 18,116 - 2026E: 19,321 - 2027E: 21,369 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 36.8%, 8.0%, 9.2%, 6.6%, 10.6% [4] - Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (in million RMB): - 2023A: 10,236 - 2024A: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,177 - 2026E: 14,231 - 2027E: 15,931 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 34.9%, 52.4%, -15.5%, 8.0%, 11.9% [4] - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): - 2023A: 3.66 - 2024A: 5.58 - 2025E: 4.71 - 2026E: 5.09 - 2027E: 5.70 [4] - Gross Margin (%): - 2023A: 62.6% - 2024A: 62.2% - 2025E: 61.9% - 2026E: 62.2% - 2027E: 62.5% [4] - Net Margin (%): - 2023A: 16.4% - 2024A: 22.0% - 2025E: 16.8% - 2026E: 16.7% - 2027E: 17.2% [4] - Return on Equity (%): - 2023A: 18.3% - 2024A: 23.4% - 2025E: 17.3% - 2026E: 16.5% - 2027E: 16.2% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.00 HKD for 2026, based on a 20x PE valuation [3][5]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing short-term revenue pressure, but the mid-term outlook remains positive due to the company's multi-brand internationalization strategy [2][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting earnings per share of 4.71, 5.09, and 5.70 RMB respectively, slightly down from previous estimates [3][10]. - The company is expected to face challenges in the competitive landscape of the mass sports sector, but new store formats and product iterations are anticipated to support stable growth in the mid-term [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 62,356 in 2023 to 92,805 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates decreasing from 16.2% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2027 [4]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 15,367 million RMB in 2023 to 21,369 million RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 36.8% in 2023, tapering to 10.6% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 10,236 million RMB in 2023 to 15,931 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 52.4% in 2024, followed by a decline of 15.5% in 2025 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 62% over the forecast period, while net margin is projected to fluctuate between 16.4% and 22.0% [4][12]. Brand Performance Insights - The main brand is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize in the mid-term due to improvements in e-commerce and new store formats [9]. - The Fila brand showed improvement in Q4 and is expected to maintain steady growth starting in 2026 due to recent brand and product optimizations [9]. - Other brands, particularly Descente and KOLON, have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 35%-40% year-on-year in Q4, and are expected to continue outperforming the overall sportswear industry [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Hikvision is recognized as a leading AI application company in China, with rapid growth in innovative business segments [5] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend policy, demonstrating significant effects of high-quality development [5] - Cash flow has improved significantly, with net profit accelerating growth [5] - The company is focusing on profit-centered strategies, enhancing operational quality, and accelerating digital transformation for sustainable growth [11] - Hikvision's self-developed AI model has expanded its application capabilities, significantly improving recognition accuracy and reducing deployment costs [11] - Recent policies are expected to boost market demand for Hikvision's products, particularly in video surveillance [11] Financial Summary - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 1.55, 1.76, and 2.03 yuan respectively, with adjustments made to revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios [7][12] - The target price is set at 47.52 yuan based on a 26-27 times PE valuation level [7][12] - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 89.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [9] - Operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 16.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is projected at 14.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [9] - The gross margin is expected to be 44.3% in 2023, with a slight increase in subsequent years [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 47.52 CNY [1][7] Core Insights - Hikvision is recognized as a leading AI application company in China, with rapid growth in innovative business segments [5] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend strategy, demonstrating significant effects of high-quality development [5] - There is a notable improvement in cash flow and accelerated growth in net profit [5] - The company is focusing on profit-centered strategies, enhancing operational quality, and accelerating digital transformation for sustainable growth [11] - The self-developed AI model, "Guanlan," significantly enhances application capabilities and reduces deployment costs [11] - Recent policies are expected to boost market demand for Hikvision's products, particularly in video surveillance [11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 92,518 million CNY, 103,737 million CNY, and 116,624 million CNY respectively, with a growth rate of 0%, 12%, and 12% [9] - Operating profit for the same period is forecasted at 16,977 million CNY, 19,306 million CNY, and 22,313 million CNY, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 14%, and 16% [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 14,188 million CNY, 16,127 million CNY, and 18,632 million CNY, with growth rates of 18%, 14%, and 16% [9] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.55 CNY, 1.76 CNY, and 2.03 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 45.2% in 2025 to 45.4% in 2027 [9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.1 in 2025 to 15.3 in 2027 [9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.3 in 2025 to 2.6 in 2027 [9] - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is noted to be 31.46 for 2026 [13]

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips as the direction for investment [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market recovery [2][6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating significant progress in industry consolidation [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated capacity with advanced production capacity signal a shift towards technological and institutional innovation in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for households and enterprises [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy combination may emerge in 2026 [4][6]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is undergoing a strategic shift from a focus on market share to profitability, driven by internal policy adjustments and external pressures such as anti-dumping investigations [4][7][11] - The report identifies five key sectors with investment potential: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes, emphasizing the importance of leading companies with significant market share and competitive advantages [4][12][55] Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry has historically prioritized market share, but recent policies and market conditions are prompting a shift towards profitability [7][13] - The supply-side reforms and dual carbon goals have raised entry barriers, leading to increased industry concentration without curbing expansion ambitions [7][13] - The trend of sacrificing market share for improved returns is becoming more prevalent, as companies recognize the need to adapt to changing market dynamics [31][11] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - MDI: The leading company, Wanhua Chemical, is expected to benefit significantly from its strategic shift towards profitability, with potential for substantial earnings growth in 2026 [56] - Petrochemicals: Major players like Sinopec and Rongsheng Petrochemical are undergoing operational adjustments that could reshape industry trends [57] - Phosphate Chemicals: The sector is poised for revaluation due to a tight supply-demand balance and increasing recognition of phosphate's value in energy security [59][60] - PVC: The industry faces strong supply constraints, with emerging markets driving demand growth despite domestic challenges [60] - Polyester Bottle Flakes: The sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to high industry concentration and strategic production limitations by leading firms [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market remains strong this week, with only a significant correction on Tuesday. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is still strong, and the convertible bond ETF has continued to see net inflows since New Year's Day. New bonds are generally priced high recently. In the context of the equity bull - market expectation, significant pullbacks in convertible bonds are unlikely, but the future upward trend space is limited. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities, and pay attention to sub - new bonds and those whose issuers have waived the right to early redemption. Convertible bond valuations may have a slight correction under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during the adjustment [7][10]. - At the beginning of this week, the market continued its strong upward trend, with both the technology and cyclical sectors strengthening. The total market turnover approached 4 trillion yuan. There was a significant divergence in previous popular sectors, with the commercial space sector correcting sharply. After the regulatory authorities increased the margin for margin financing, the market cooled down, and the balance of margin trading and the daily turnover of the entire A - share market decreased significantly. The regulatory authorities further defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market trend will shift from the technology + dividend sectors to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Strengthened Expectations of a Slow Bull Market, Seize Structural Opportunities - The convertible bond market is strong, with a slight correction in the hundred - yuan premium rate, but it remains at a very high level. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is strong, with continuous net inflows into convertible bond ETFs since New Year's Day and high pricing of new bonds. In the equity bull - market expectation, there will be no significant pullbacks in convertible bonds, but the upward space is limited. Structural opportunities should be focused on, and sub - new bonds and those with waived early redemption rights can be emphasized. Convertible bond valuations may correct slightly under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during adjustments [10]. - The market was strong at the beginning of the week, with technology and cyclical sectors rising. The total turnover approached 4 trillion yuan, and there was a divergence in popular sectors. After regulatory measures, the market cooled down. The regulatory authorities defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. The upward logic remains unchanged in the long - term, and the market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, shifting to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [11]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Record - High Trading Volume, Slight Decline in Valuations 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Increased - The equity market rose with increased volume and then declined this week. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed strongly. The Kechuang 50 index rose 2.58%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the Beizheng 50 index rose 1.58%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.57%, and the SSE 50 index fell 1.74%. In terms of industries, the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 616.623 billion yuan to 3.46 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Jin 05 Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [15]. 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, High - Price and Low - Rating Convertible Bonds Performed Well - Convertible bonds rose significantly this week. The hundred - yuan premium rate declined slightly but remained at an absolute high. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 101.923 billion yuan, peaking at 109.860 billion yuan on Wednesday and then falling below 100 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the median conversion price increased 0.9% to 106.0 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 0.8% to 33.1%. In terms of style, high - price and low - rating convertible bonds continued to lead the gains, while high - rating and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [22].