当霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势与美联储持续鹰派的政策立场形成共振，上周全球资本 市场经历了一场压力测试。令人瞩目的是，市场展现出超乎预期的韧性：亚洲主要 市场指数普遍上扬，其中韩国、印度和日本市场涨幅领先，分别上涨 4.4%、1.59% 和 1.50%。相较之下，中国市场本周表现略显逊色，主要指数出现调整，我们认 为，可能源于其自身运行节奏的影响：上证指数在未能有效突破 3400 点附近的关键 阻力区间后，技术上面临回踩需求，本周微跌 0.51%。同时，小盘股前期积累的上 涨动能也显露转弱迹象，中证 1000 指数下跌 1.74%，北证 50 指数下跌 2.55%，需 对该结构性风险保持警惕。 投资策略 | 定期报告 地缘波折，难阻中国科技突围 策略周报 20250622 研究结论 ⚫ 全球资本市场韧性超预期，但仍需防范风险 支撑全球市场韧性的核心逻辑在于：投资者倾向于相信中东地缘危机短期内不会失 控升级。伊朗的报复行动虽引发波动，但均未实质性突破"红线"，大国直接军事 介入的风险暂时预期保持中性。OPEC+充足的闲置产能、伊朗原油出口的暂时维持 以及全球能源转型的长期趋势，共同削弱了油价飙升的持续性预期。然而，这 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 IH 浅升水，IC 及 IM 深贴水 分红对期指的影响 20250620 研究结论 | 上证50股指期货 含分红价差 | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2507 | 2636.80 | 40.84 | -36.92 | 3.92 | | IH2508 | 尚未开始交易 | 43.73 | 尚未开始交易 | 尚未开始交易 | | IH2509 | 2635.40 | 44.65 | -38.32 | 6.33 | | IH2512 | 2633.40 | 44.65 | -40.32 | 4.33 | | 沪深300股指期货 | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | IF2507 | 3804.40 | 38.26 | -42.24 | -3.99 | | IF2508 | 尚未开始交易 | 44.90 | 尚未开始交易 | 尚未开始交易 | | IF2509 | 3773.60 | 48.35 | -73.04 | -24.70 | | IF2512 | 3745.20 | 48 ...

风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Trend 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Volatility 风格上。六 个月 UMR 是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 22 日 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 金融工程 | 动态跟踪 投资建议 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | 捕捉趋势的力量：基金动量刻画新范式： | 2025-06-12 | | --- | --- | | ——FOF 研究系列 | | | Neural ODE：时序动力系统重构下深度学 | 2025-05-27 | | 习因子挖掘模型：——因子选股系列之一 | | | 一六 | | | DFQ-diversify：解决分布外泛化问题的自 | 2025-05-07 | | 监督领域识别与对抗解耦模型：——因子 | | ...

金融工程 | 专题报告 广发中证香港创新药 ETF 投资价值分析 ——FOF 系列研究之七十六 研究结论 广发中证香港创新药 ETF（代码：513120.SH）成立于 2022 年 7 月 1 日，跟踪中证香港 创新药指数，截至 2025 年 5 月 31 日，其基金规模为 101 亿元，过去一个月的日均成交 金额为 27.51 亿元，具有良好的场内流动性。此外，该 ETF 设有一只联接基金，包含广 发中证香港创新药联接 A 和广发中证香港创新药联接 C 两个份额。 当前，中国创新药产业正在发生巨大变革，从"中国制造"向"中国创造"积极转型。 其中，因港股聚集了更多优质创新药龙头公司、港股整体性价比更高而受到市场高度关 注：今年以来（截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日），万得创新药指数涨幅 27.2%，港股创新药指 数涨幅高达 74.5%。 展望未来，我们认为，港股创新药公司仍将引领行业继续高歌猛进。其核心原因在于， 第一，经过前期持续研发投入，港股创新药公司已经培育出了一批处于全球前列的爆款 品种，潜在价值巨大；第二，随着商业化产品销售收入不断累积，创新药公司正在迎来 收入和利润端的高速增长，部分港股龙头 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - The storage demand is recovering, driven by AI servers and domestic substitution opportunities, suggesting a focus on the storage industry chain [3] - The global AI-driven storage market is expected to grow significantly, from $28.7 billion in 2024 to $255.2 billion in 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.4% [28] - The domestic storage industry is poised for growth due to advancements in technology and increasing local production capabilities [30] Summary by Sections 1. AI Wave Driving Industry Growth and Domestic Substitution Prospects - Storage demand is recovering, with average prices for DRAM and NAND flash increasing for two consecutive months [11] - AI has become a key driver for storage demand growth, with significant increases in enterprise SSD market demand [8][19] - The domestic storage industry is expected to benefit from policies promoting self-sufficiency, with low current domestic market shares for DRAM and NAND flash [30] 2. DRAM: Niche Market Restructuring and 3D DRAM Industrialization - The global DRAM market is projected to grow, with a CAGR of 5.1% from 2024 to 2029 [37] - Major manufacturers are gradually phasing out DDR4 production, leading to supply constraints and opportunities for niche DRAM markets [43] - The demand for DDR4 remains strong in various sectors, including consumer electronics and industrial applications [44] 3. Flash: AI Driving Capacity and Total Demand Increase - The enterprise market for NAND flash is experiencing rapid growth due to increased demand from data centers and servers [8] - The NOR flash market is also expected to grow, driven by emerging fields such as IoT and automotive electronics [8] - Domestic companies are enhancing their competitive advantages by providing cost-effective products and upgrading their technology [8][30] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the storage industry chain, including companies involved in storage IC design, storage modules, and system-level solutions [3][31] - Key companies to watch include Zhaoyi Innovation, Unisoc, and others in the storage IC design sector [3][31]

家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国补无虞且韧性可期，抢滩蓝海有望焕发 新生机 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 家电内销有望受益政策拉动，叠加今年空调旺季有望受益较高气温和较低库存，二季度 家电需求值得期待，后续国补补贴方式变化但扰动有限；出口方面新兴市场潜力可期， 对美出口扰动因为全球产能布局也无需过忧，供应链优势带来的全球格局重塑机会则需 重视。建议关注享受国内政策延续、积极出海，自身效率提升的优质白电龙头，建议关 注美的集团(000333，未评级)、海尔智家(600690，买入)、海信家电(000921，未评 级)；建议关注海外成熟市场份额重塑，且短期全球供应链优势有望放大弹性的出海/出口 优质企业，建议关注海信视像(600060，增持)、欧圣电气(301187，买入)；建议关注短 期受益国补品类外溢，中长期有望享受新兴家电品类需求红利的优质小家电企业，建议 关注石头科技(688169，买入)、小熊电器(002959，增持)；建议关注地产负面扰动缓 和，策略灵活调整并有望布局海外的厨电企业，建议关注老板电器(002508，买入)、华 帝股份(002035，未评级)。 风险提示 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电 ...

——海外札记 20250617 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。 宏观经济 | 专题报告 伊以冲突地缘风险交易的前景 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 20 日 | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | --- | --- | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | "TACO"信仰淡化关税风险定价：——海 | 2025-06-04 | | --- | - ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 对外开放更加确定，金融助力科创包容性 提升 2025 陆家嘴论坛点评 研究结论 首次明确平准基金定位，关注稳定资本市 场的战略力量 2025-04-11 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 20 日 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 | | --- | 陈至奕 021-63325888*6044 chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 孙金霞 021-63325888*7590 sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 孙国翔 sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 ⚫ 5 月末陆家嘴论坛公告即将举行之际，曾对"中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融 政策"作过预告，市场对金融继续支持宏观总量增长的期待有所抬升，但从论坛公 布的政策内容看，更加侧重将对外开放与科技转型置于更关 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 94.15 CNY based on a 35x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic home respiratory machine market, with significant growth potential in both domestic and international markets. The recovery in sales is expected as inventory issues clear up, particularly in the home respiratory machine segment [2][9]. - The global demand for chronic respiratory disease treatment is substantial, with a changing competitive landscape that has allowed the company to increase its market share significantly [9][40]. - The company has established a strong product quality comparable to international brands and is expanding its distribution channels both domestically and internationally [9][40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 2.69 CNY, 3.59 CNY, and 4.57 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Revenue is expected to recover with a growth rate of 27.1% in 2025 [3][4]. - The financial outlook indicates a recovery in revenue and profit margins, with a notable increase in the contribution from consumables alongside the growth in respiratory machine sales [3][4][30]. Company Overview - Founded in 2001, the company has become a leader in the domestic home respiratory machine industry, with significant international expansion since obtaining FDA certification in 2012 [9][14]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic and following the recall of Philips products, which has allowed it to capture market share [9][25]. Market Dynamics - The global market for home respiratory machines is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing awareness of health issues and rising healthcare investments. The market size for home non-invasive respiratory machines was estimated at 2.78 billion USD in 2020 [57]. - The company has seen its market share in the domestic market rise to 30.6% by 2023, positioning it as the leading domestic brand [69][74]. Product and Service Strategy - The company offers a comprehensive range of products, including home non-invasive respiratory machines, ventilation masks, and oxygen concentrators, supported by a robust health management platform [17][40]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and market presence, including a recent strategic partnership to develop new respiratory products [39].

建材行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 房价继续走弱，博弈价值再起 ——建筑建材行业跟踪点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 地产及地产链继续寻底，关注受益于二手房翻新、城市更新改造，并且 C 端零售业务取 得明显进展的消费建材企业。建议关注涂料龙头三棵树(603737，未评级)、板材龙头兔 宝宝(002043，未评级)、石膏板龙头北新建材(000786，买入)。 风险提示 房地产需求进一步下滑、行业中小企业出清不及预期，原燃材料价格上涨、国际贸易形 势恶化、国产替代新材料需求释放不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 18 日 看好（维持） 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 | 行业需求仍偏弱，关注新兴材料产业：— | 2025-05-29 | | --- | --- | | —建筑建材行业跟踪点评 | | | 关税调整，跨境电商仍有作为：——遮阳 | 2025-05-29 | | 面料行业跟踪点评 | | | 预期逐渐改善，重视估值修复机会：—— | 2024-12-18 | | 建筑建材行业 ...