Group 1 - The report indicates that liquidity risk is controllable despite rising global risk assessments, with expectations that the US dollar will not strengthen long-term due to accumulating macroeconomic pressures in the US [4][20][15] - The Middle East situation is likely to continue or escalate, but the effectiveness of policies such as escorting in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be limited, with the market already pricing in these expectations [4][20][11] - Chinese assets are characterized by a "safety premium" due to stable energy supplies, export advantages, and liquidity increments, leading to a steady decline in risk assessments for these assets [4][20][16] Group 2 - In the past week (March 16-22, 2026), commodities, except for crude oil, weakened across the board, global equities faced pressure, and bond market trends were mixed, with domestic bonds rebounding except for long-term bonds [7][9] - There are currently no trend signals for various asset classes, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [23][21] - The medium-term uncertainty for commodities and gold is rising, while uncertainty for domestic bonds is decreasing, and uncertainty for A-shares, US stocks, and US bonds remains stable [25][21][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since March, the secondary market trading of local government bonds has recovered, and the spread with treasury bonds has significantly compressed compared to the beginning of the month. The market's exploration efforts are expected to further increase. Attention can be paid to provinces and cities with high or significantly increasing secondary trading activity [6][9]. - Last week, there was a divergence between short - and long - term interest rates in the bond market. Short - term interest rates continued to decline, while long - term interest rates rose mainly due to the inflation expectations brought by high oil prices and better - than - expected economic data [6][33]. - The production side shows a divergence in operating rates, the demand side has mixed performance, and prices show different trends in different sectors [6][43][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Special Topic: Focus on the Increase in Local Government Bond Activity - Since March, the secondary trading of local government bonds has warmed up. As of March 22, the secondary turnover rate was 2.9%, up from 2.4% in February. With the stable issuance of local government bonds, a loose funding environment, and the upcoming season of increasing non - bank scale in the second and third quarters, the secondary trading of local government bonds is expected to heat up further. Provinces and cities such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Hunan, and Fujian have seen significant increases in turnover rates, reaching 7.9%, 6.4%, 6.1%, 5.8%, and 4.5% respectively since March [6][9]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Interest - Bearing Bond Supply Remains High Compared to the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Announced Data Concentrates Overseas - The US will announce the March Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, etc., and the Eurozone will announce the March Manufacturing PMI and other data [12][13]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance is Expected to be Around 673.6 Billion - Treasury bonds: One 7 - year coupon - bearing general treasury bond with a scale of 175 billion and one 91 - day discount treasury bond are expected to be issued, with a total issuance scale of about 595 billion. - Local government bonds: 75 local government bonds are planned to be issued, with a total issuance scale of 308.6 billion, including new general bonds, new special bonds, refinancing general bonds, and refinancing special bonds. - Policy - financial bonds: The issuance scale is expected to be around 150 billion [13]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Divergence of Short - and Long - Term Yields Continues 3.1 Net Reverse Repurchase Injection Last Week was 6.58 Billion - Last week, the net injection through open - market operations was 24.58 billion. The reverse repurchase injection scale first increased slightly and then fell to a relatively low level. The total injection was 242.3 billion, with 176.5 billion due, resulting in a net injection of 6.58 billion. Coupled with the roll - over of treasury time deposits, the net injection through open - market operations was 24.58 billion. Tax - period funds were stable, and funding rates gradually declined. The repurchase trading volume first decreased and then recovered, with the weekly average at around 84 trillion. The overnight proportion remained at around 91%. The DR001 remained at 1.32%, and the DR007 fell from 1.46% to 1.42% [16][17]. - The net financing of certificates of deposit remained at a low level, and both primary and secondary prices declined. From March 16 to 22, the issuance scale was 759.8 billion (down 86.1 billion from the previous week), the maturity scale was 1162.9 billion (up 154.7 billion from the previous week), and the net financing was - 403.1 billion (down 240.8 billion from the previous week). The long - term proportion decreased to 55%, and secondary yields mostly declined [21]. 3.2 Short - Term Yields Declined while Long - Term Yields Rose - Last week, there was a divergence between short - and long - term interest rates. Short - term interest rates continued to decline, while long - term interest rates rose mainly due to inflation expectations brought by high oil prices and better - than - expected economic data. The 10 - year treasury bond and CDB active bonds changed by 1.6bp and - 0.8bp respectively to 1.83% and 1.93%. The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year ChinaBond treasury bond yields changed by - 2bp, - 2.5bp, 0.1bp, 0bp, and 1.6bp respectively to 1.26%, 1.35%, 1.56%, 1.7%, and 1.83%. The short - and long - term interest - bearing bonds diverged, with the 5 - year Exim Bank and Agricultural Development Bank bonds declining the most by 3.4bp, and the 10 - year treasury bond rising the most by 1.6bp [6][33][35]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise - Production side: There is a divergence in operating rates. The blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.3% to 79.8%, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased from 77.7% to 78.3%. The PTA operating rate decreased from 80.1% to 76.3%, and the asphalt operating rate decreased from 23% to 21.8%. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel production in early March was still large, at - 8.5% [43]. - Demand side: Since March, the year - on - year growth of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales has turned negative. In the week of March 15, the year - on - year change in manufacturers' wholesale was - 10%, and the year - on - year change in manufacturers' retail was - 19%. In the week of March 15, the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased to 12.57 million square meters, with the year - on - year growth rate turning positive. The commercial housing sales area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased to around 1.7 million square meters, with the year - on - year decline narrowing to - 7.6%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 0.2% and 4.5% respectively [45]. - Price side: Brent oil prices continued to rise, copper and aluminum prices declined, and coal prices were divergent. The power coal active contract futures settlement price remained the same as last week, while the coking coal active contract futures settlement price changed by - 1.4%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index was basically flat, the cement index changed by 1.6%, and the glass index changed by - 5.3%. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory was basically flat at 6.53 million tons, with the futures price changing by - 0.5%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by - 1.6%, - 2%, and - 2.4% respectively [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the recent market adjustment, many major broad - based index ETFs showed the characteristics of increasing trading volume day by day and during the session, especially on March 23, when many products had a significant increase in volume at the end of the session [7][10] - After the market closed on March 23, the quantitative signals quickly strengthened, but there was differentiation among sectors. The technology sector had relatively weak signals [7] - In terms of style, the mid - cap blue - chip market is still favored, and the agriculture and manufacturing industries are optimistic, with a focus on the photovoltaic sector [7] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 3月23日主要宽基指数ETF成交量明显放大 - During the recent market adjustment, many major broad - based index ETFs showed the characteristics of increasing trading volume day by day and during the session. On March 23, when the market had a significant adjustment, many ETFs showed significant volume increases after 14:45. For example, the trading volume of Huatai - Berries CSI 300ETF, Huaxia SSE 50ETF, Southern CSI 500ETF, and Southern CSI 1000ETF in the last 15 minutes accounted for 10.5%, 17.8%, 8.8%, and 15.9% of the whole - day trading volume respectively [10] 3.2 盘后量化模型信号迅速转强，市场有望迎来反弹 3.2.1 下跌后估值安全边际提升 - As of March 23, 2026, with the change in market sentiment, the price - to - earnings ratios of major A - share broad - based indexes have fallen back to a reasonable range. Compared with March 2, the valuation quantiles of major broad - based indexes have significantly decreased, and the market has become more rational. Currently, they are mostly in the 70 - 80 quantiles, providing a higher safety margin for equity assets [24] 3.2.2 3月23日盘后量化信号迅速转强 - **Broad - based index short - term signal strengthening**: The short - term signal of broad - based indexes has a good historical performance. On March 23, the quantitative signals of major broad - based indexes quickly strengthened after the market closed. Since 2026, the quantitative signals were strong in January, neutral in February, and weakened at the end of March. With the rapid decline of the market on March 23, the quantitative signals returned to the previous high level [30][35] - **Industry medium - term signal strengthening but sector differentiation**: The monthly medium - term signal of industry indexes also has an indicative effect. Similar to the performance of broad - based index signals, the quantitative signals indicating the industry strength in the next month also strengthened, but there was differentiation among sectors. The signals of value - based sectors were strong, while the expectations of the technology sector were still relatively weak, and the mid - cap blue - chip style is expected to continue to strengthen [38][40] 3.3 继续看好农业与制造，重点关注光伏板块 - Despite the high uncertainty in the external situation, the investment opportunities still focus on stocks with medium - risk characteristics, and the characteristics of mid - cap blue - chips will be further strengthened, with a focus on the cyclical and manufacturing sectors. In the context of the prominent global energy security requirements, the new energy industry (photovoltaic, wind power, power transmission) with global competitive advantages in China is the core main line of the manufacturing sector. The report lists relevant ETFs in the photovoltaic, power, and agricultural sectors for reference [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.64 CNY based on a PE ratio of 14X for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continuous growth in high-end product varieties, with a significant increase in demand for special steel products, particularly in the energy sector [9]. - The company achieved a net profit of 5.93 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.67%, despite a challenging steel market environment [9]. - The company is actively pursuing a global expansion strategy, having exported 2.3 million tons of steel in 2025, which is a 4.6% increase from the previous year [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are as follows: 104.46 billion CNY in 2026, 104.09 billion CNY in 2027, and 104.24 billion CNY in 2028, with a slight decline in growth rates [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2026 to 16.2% in 2028, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 6.35 billion CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 7.2% [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned well within the steel industry, focusing on high-end products that cater to growing sectors such as renewable energy and automotive [9]. - The company’s strategic acquisitions and global trade initiatives are expected to bolster its market presence and profitability in the coming years [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 17.64 CNY based on a PE ratio of 14X for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continuous growth in high-end product varieties, with a significant increase in sales of high-grade products, particularly in the energy sector, which is expected to drive future profitability [9]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, achieving a steel export of 2.3029 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and is actively pursuing an international strategy to enhance profitability [9]. - The company has achieved a record high gross margin of 14.94% in 2025, reflecting its ability to maintain pricing power despite a decline in steel prices [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are as follows: 104.461 billion CNY in 2026, 104.093 billion CNY in 2027, and 104.235 billion CNY in 2028, with a slight decline in growth rates [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 6.355 billion CNY in 2026, 6.654 billion CNY in 2027, and 7.229 billion CNY in 2028, indicating a steady growth trajectory [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.26 CNY in 2026, 1.32 CNY in 2027, and 1.43 CNY in 2028, reflecting an upward trend in profitability [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The deep-sea industry is a crucial pillar for energy security, with significant potential for investment in marine information technology and equipment [2][9] - The development and utilization of deep-sea resources are essential, particularly in the context of national deep-sea strategies and defense manufacturing [3][9] - The urgency for deep-sea information infrastructure is increasing, with a focus on enhancing sensor demand and accelerating domestic replacements [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment opportunities in deep-sea information technology include companies such as China Marine Defense (600764), Zhongke Haixun (300810), and Changying Tong (688143) [3] - In deep-sea equipment manufacturing, notable companies include China Shipbuilding (600150), China Power (600482), and Zhongchuan Defense (600685) [3] Industry Overview - The deep-sea sector is expected to accelerate the development of marine resources, particularly oil and gas, with China's total marine oil reserves estimated at approximately 392 billion tons and natural gas at about 53 billion cubic meters [9] - The deep-sea industry is positioned to mitigate reliance on foreign resources and enhance energy security through the development of critical metals [9] - The demand for underwater robots and unmanned submersibles is increasing, driven by the need for efficient and safe deep-sea operations [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated excellent operational quality over 25 years, with revenue expected to accelerate in 2026 [2] - The company’s 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, driven by strong growth in its franchise and e-commerce businesses, alongside effective cost control [9] - The company is expected to see sales growth accelerate starting in 2026, supported by product upgrades and channel optimization [9] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.14, 1.15, and 1.32 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 23.52 HKD based on an 18x valuation for 2026 [3][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 27,598 million RMB in 2023 to 34,567 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.9% in 2027, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry, particularly focusing on brokerage firms [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that since early 2025, positive policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts have improved market liquidity, which is expected to enhance trading activity in 2026. The recovery in market sentiment, alongside ongoing capital market reforms, is anticipated to sustain trading volume and activity levels [3][7]. - The brokerage sector is currently experiencing a divergence between performance recovery and valuation, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio remaining low despite improvements in return on equity (ROE) [7][15][20]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery in brokerage firms' performance is primarily driven by self-operated and brokerage businesses, with significant revenue growth observed in these areas [32][40][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Review: Stock Prices Under Pressure, Macro Data Validates Improvement - The brokerage sector has faced stock price pressures due to market style shifts, with performance lagging behind the CSI 300 index [10][11]. - Macro data indicates an increase in trading volume and new account openings, supporting the improvement in the brokerage sector's outlook [23][25]. 2. Revenue and Profit Improvement Driven by Self-Operated and Brokerage Businesses - The revenue of listed brokerages has entered a recovery phase, with a reported 12.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first nine months of 2025 [32][33]. - The self-operated business has become a core revenue source, with significant growth in income driven by expanded financial investments and improved investment returns [40][41]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality brokerage firms with leading advantages across multiple business lines during the performance recovery phase. Recommended stocks include CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities [3][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Energy security will promote the export of new energy vehicles from China, with domestic brands expected to capture overseas markets due to their technological, cost, and supply chain advantages [2][9] - The upcoming launch of several key new energy models is anticipated to boost demand in the passenger car market, with a gradual recovery expected as consumer sentiment improves [10] - The IPO application of Yushun Technology has been accepted, indicating strong growth potential in the humanoid robot sector, which may positively influence market sentiment [11] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Strong alpha vehicle and parts companies are expected to withstand industry risks and achieve revenue and profit growth; focus on companies in the gas power generation chain, humanoid robotics, liquid cooling, and advanced driving industries [12] - Recommended vehicle-related stocks include BYD, Geely, SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, and Seres; gas generator stocks include Yinlun and Weichai Power; liquid cooling stocks include InvoTech, Yinlun, Top Group, Feilong, and Chuanhuan Technology; robotics stocks include Xinquan, Top Group, Yinlun, Daimai, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Zhejiang Rongtai, Xusheng Group, and others; advanced driving stocks include Jingwei Hirain, Bertel, and Desay SV [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate sector [9] Core Insights - The current "small spring" in the real estate market shows characteristics such as price-driven volume, stronger second-hand housing compared to new homes, dominance of core cities, and a high proportion of demand from first-time buyers. However, the overall performance is not exceeding expectations, indicating a structural issue in transaction volume sustainability [2][3][60] - Beijing and Shanghai are accumulating positive signals, with a notable reduction in supply due to sellers withdrawing listings. The inventory and de-stocking cycles in these cities are at healthy levels, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices [2][3][60] - The report suggests that Beijing and Shanghai may lead the recovery in housing prices during this downturn, with a timeline expected within the next two years. Investors are advised to closely monitor market conditions for potential opportunities [2][3] Market Performance - The A-share real estate index experienced a weekly decline of 4.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [14] - The Hong Kong real estate index showed a weekly increase of 0.23%, outperforming the Hang Seng index [19] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - Transaction volumes in first and second-tier cities continue to rise, with Shenzhen seeing a significant week-on-week increase of 19.8%. Beijing's transaction volume increased by 8.0% [4][37] - The average listing price in first-tier cities has turned positive, with Shanghai's listing price increasing by 0.11% week-on-week [23] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have shown continued growth, with Beijing's week-on-week increase at 32% and Shenzhen at 27% [5][57] - The inventory of new homes in first-tier cities continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% [59] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on national real estate companies or local state-owned enterprises that are deeply engaged in the Beijing and Shanghai markets, given their leading performance [3][6][60]