宏观经济 | 专题报告 物价回升：这次不一样——"通往再平衡 之路"系列之三 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"力度超预期，收缩效应大于消费改善幅度的风险。 目 录 | 历史上的 PPI 回暖是如何传导的？ 4 | | --- | | 90 年代末的启示：CPI 的改善源于新一轮开放而非国企改革传导 4 | | 2009-2011：强刺激拉动内需，PPI 与 CPI 依然同步 6 | | 2015–2017：两个指标的脱钩开始出现，上游周期获得更强集中度 8 | | 2020–2021：上游涨终端弱，剪刀差历史最大 10 | | 通胀能传导到利润，但对居民收入影响有限 11 | | 2026 价格回升：更关注政策拉动下的需求改善 12 | | 财政重心向民生倾斜，同时存在一些政策推动的提价 12 | | "反内卷"追求以更优制度来影响价格 13 | | 风险提示 14 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S086051909 ...

信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 齐晟 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 qisheng@orientsec.com.cn 010-66210535 | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | --- | --- | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 关注 CRMW 一级发行定价机会 | 结汇如何影响资金面和存单：固定收益市 | 2026-01-27 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 转债波动不弱正股，把握估值 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with inventory adjustments providing support. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt sectors are identified as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with futures contracts experiencing significant declines. The price of lithium concentrate was reported at $2,070 per ton, down $144 from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected, but downstream demand has led to active market transactions [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals, with notable announcements including Pilbara's production advancements and CATL's plans for a new battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium and Yahua Group have provided profit forecasts indicating significant year-on-year growth, while Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have also reported expected turnarounds in profitability [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December production data shows mixed trends, with carbonate lithium production up 4% month-on-month and hydroxide lithium up 2%. The inventory levels are undergoing structural adjustments, with significant increases in imports of carbonate lithium and hydroxide lithium [18][31][49].

Market Overview - The market is currently in a sideways trend, with the pre-holiday low likely established, indicating no need for panic[3] - Global financial markets remain volatile, with an upward trend in risk assessment, while China's risk evaluation remains stable[3] Industry Focus - Investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the chemical and agricultural sectors[4] - Previous recommendations in the cyclical sectors of chemicals and non-ferrous metals have met expectations, with a focus now on agriculture and chemicals[4] Thematic Investment - Agricultural price increases are anticipated, with the agricultural policy document expected to be released in February, potentially driving prices upward[5] - Key agricultural products like live pigs and rubber are at the beginning of a price uptrend due to supply adjustments, while major commodities like sugar and corn are in a tight supply-demand balance[5] Technology and Aerospace - Continued focus on AI technologies and applications, with significant market interest expected as major internet companies ramp up marketing efforts ahead of the Spring Festival[5] - The aerospace sector is experiencing a decline in market attention, but potential for a rebound exists due to ongoing developments from companies like SpaceX and NASA[6] Risk Factors - Market performance may fall short of expectations due to various economic and geopolitical risks[7] - Insufficient pricing of geopolitical risks could lead to sudden market shocks[7] - Potential underperformance in industry developments due to technological iterations and commercialization challenges[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with support from inventory adjustments ahead of the holiday. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with a divergence in the rhythm between mining and salt ends. Futures contracts have dropped significantly, with the Wuxi 2605 contract down 16.65% to 149,200 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2605 contract down 18.36% to 148,200 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 2,070 USD/ton, down 144 USD from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected due to regulatory cooling and market fluctuations, with downstream demand stabilizing [12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals. For instance, Pilbara is evaluating the potential for increased production capacity at its Ngungaju plant, while CATL plans to build a lithium battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium Industry and other companies have announced significant changes in their profit forecasts, reflecting the impact of lithium price fluctuations and operational adjustments [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - In December, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 4% month-on-month, while hydroxide lithium production rose by 2%. The inventory showed structural adjustments, with a general increase in prices for lithium and cobalt materials. The average price for battery-grade carbonate lithium rose by 7.15% to a range of 161,000-182,000 CNY/ton, and battery-grade hydroxide lithium increased by 8.12% to 158,000-169,000 CNY/ton [18][19][67].

Group 1 - Core view: The market is in a state of fluctuation, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips in the chemical and agricultural sectors [3][12] - Market assessment: The pre-holiday low has likely been established, and the main tone of sideways fluctuation remains unchanged [4][13] - Global financial market trends continue to show volatility, with an upward trend in risk assessment, while China's risk evaluation remains stable [3][13] Group 2 - Industry comparison: The focus remains on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors, which are expected to provide investment opportunities [4][14] - The agricultural sector is anticipated to become a key player in the next market phase, with price increases expected due to supply-demand dynamics [5][14] - The upcoming agricultural policy document is expected to be released in February, which may further influence market trends [5][14] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technologies and applications, with ongoing developments in areas such as silicon photonics and cloud computing [5][14] - The aerospace satellite sector is currently experiencing a decline in market attention, but there are signs of potential rebounds due to overseas advancements [6][14] - The robotics sector is expected to regain market focus with the upcoming release of Tesla's V3 version, which may create new investment opportunities [6][14]

机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 农机 2025 年需求承压，2026 年景气度有 望改善 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 2025 年农机的需求整体承压，向前看，我们预计 2026 年国内海外的农机景气度均有望 边际复苏，带来投资机会。部分相关标的：一拖股份(601038，未评级)、中联重科 (000157，买入)。 风险提示 宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、粮食价格不及预期，海外高利率拖累需求、海外贸易 摩擦加剧、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 02 日 看好（维持） 数据来源：ifind，东方证券研究所 数据来源：ifind，东方证券研究所 (40) (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 2022/02 2022/09 2023/04 2023/11 2024/06 2025/01 2025/08 小型拖拉机累计产量同比（%） (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 2022/02 2022/09 2023/04 2023/11 2024/06 2025/01 2025/08 中大型拖拉机累计产量同比（%） 图 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of the chemical and agricultural sectors, highlighting their potential for price increases driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial transformation [2][5][12] - The macroeconomic logic behind the current commodity price increases is characterized by external factors rather than internal dynamics, with non-energy commodities benefiting the most [13][30] - The report identifies two main lines of price increase: the industrialization of emerging economies and the geopolitical turmoil affecting import prices [48][49] Group 2 - In agriculture, the report notes that upstream price transmission is expected to lead to a comprehensive upward trend in agricultural products, particularly in pigs, rubber, sugar, corn, and oilseeds [5][3][20] - The chemical sector is anticipated to undergo a transformation in supply expectations, with new export opportunities emerging, particularly due to the decline of chemical industries in Europe and Japan [5][4][20] - The report suggests that the current low allocation of funds to the agricultural sector presents a significant investment opportunity, with selected active equity funds and passive ETFs recommended for investors [5][22][36] Group 3 - The report outlines a shift in the investment landscape, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a key area of interest, particularly in the cyclical sectors of chemicals and agriculture [58][5][48] - It highlights that the current market environment favors a risk preference shift towards mid-risk characteristics, which aligns with the performance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks [58][5][48] - The report indicates that the cyclical nature of the chemical and agricultural sectors positions them well for future investment opportunities [5][58][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The supply and demand expectations for lithium and cobalt are reversing, indicating the start of a new price cycle [2][3] - Lithium demand is expected to recover, leading to a replenishment cycle, while supply disruptions will create a medium-term gap [2] - Cobalt supply is dominated by export quotas from sovereign nations, leading to a raw material shortage that supports prices [3] Summary by Sections Lithium - Supply disruptions from African lithium projects and stable production from South American salt lakes are expected, while China's regulatory management will lead to a temporary supply contraction of lithium mica [2] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of energy storage as a second growth driver after electric vehicles, with solid-state batteries opening up potential for increased lithium consumption [2] - From the second half of 2025, supply disruptions in Jiangxi and strong downstream demand will lead to a price rebound for lithium, maintaining a tight supply situation through 2026-2027 [2] Cobalt - The supply side is significantly influenced by the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in a definitive raw material shortage [3] - Demand for cobalt products is currently weak due to high prices, and the recovery of demand hinges on the adoption of solid-state batteries [3] - The Congolese government has a strong ability and willingness to support prices, with expectations for cobalt prices to remain strong in the medium term [3] Investment Strategy - In an upward cycle, it is essential to consider the self-reinforcing attributes of stock prices and commodity prices, alongside fundamental factors [4] - The interplay between stock prices, futures, and spot prices creates a positive feedback loop, where stock prices often react first to anticipated changes [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended lithium-related stocks include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, among others [5] - Recommended cobalt-related stocks include Huayou Cobalt and others [5]

公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 新建新型储能容量电价，多元电价体系逐 步完善 公用事业行业周报（2026.01.26-2026.01.30） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 01 日 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 火电电量降幅收窄，基金持仓底部提升： | 2026-01-25 | | --- | --- | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.01.19- | | | 2026.01.23） | | | 气温拖累单月电量，26 年有望平稳增长： | 2026-01-18 | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.01.12- | | | 2026.01.16） | | | 长协电价风险落地，结算电价有望好于预 | 2026-01-11 | | 期 ： 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.01.05- | | | 2026.01.09） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露 ...