Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The significant cancellation of LME copper warehouse receipts has raised supply concerns, leading to an optimistic outlook for both copper prices and smelting fees [2][7] - The copper supply is expected to remain tight due to frequent disruptions in the mining sector and concerns over tariffs, which are anticipated to support copper price increases [7] - The introduction of "anti-involution" measures to control smelting capacity expansion is expected to stabilize smelting fees and support a simultaneous rise in copper prices and smelting fees [7] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - On December 3, LME copper warehouse receipts saw a cancellation of 56,900 tons, accounting for approximately 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day cancellation since 2013, which has heightened expectations of tight copper supply [7] - The global sixth-largest copper producer, Glencore, has lowered its 2025 copper production guidance by 40% compared to 2018, further indicating supply constraints [7] Policy and Market Outlook - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has expressed strong opposition to unsustainable structural contradictions in the mining and smelting sectors, indicating a commitment to controlling new copper smelting capacity [7] - The CSPT has announced self-regulatory measures to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, which is expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances [7] Investment Recommendations - For the copper mining sector, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its substantial resource reserves and expected production increases [7] - For the copper smelting sector, it is advised to consider Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy), which is the largest copper smelting enterprise in China and has resources expected to enhance copper concentrate self-sufficiency [7]

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 耐心等待低位布局时机 朝闻道 20251205 市场策略 耐心等待低位布局时机 风格策略 藏科技进攻的"锋"，待中盘蓝筹的"时" 行业策略 有色：布局正当时 主题策略 计算机：太空算力未来可期，关注核心收益环节 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓、关税影响需求与产业链稳定性、原料价格波动、中美关系变化、商业化进展不及预 期。 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 05 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 ⚫ 周一"先扬后抑"的预判得到了市场验证，11 月 21 日的跳空缺口阻力明显，本周 前四个交易日沪指一阳三阴。截至 12 月 4 日，是近半年以来沪指月 K 线首次暂时收 在了 5 日均线下方，需要警惕震荡升级。站在当下，我们认为中期震荡格局未改， 耐心等待低位布局时机。要么以时间验证胜率的提升，要么以空间换来赔率的扩 大。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：现金流 ETF(159276/159399/516460/159235)、科创 100ETF(588220/589980/588190) ⚫ 日历 ...

基本面筑底回升，聚焦息差改善和风险演 绎 ——银行行业 2026 年度投资策略 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 2026 年银行板块有望回归基本面叙事：十五五开局之年，政策性金融工具加持下 资产扩张仍有韧性；仍处于存款集中重定价周期，支撑净息差有望企稳回升；结构 性风险暴露仍期待有政策托底。2026 年，保险行业将系统性执行 I9，公募考核新 规的中长期引导效应也有望显现，我们看好 2026 年银行板块绝对收益。建议关注 两条主线：1、基本面确定的优质中小行，相关标的：南京银行(601009，买入)、 杭州银行(600926，买入)、宁波银行(002142，买入)、上海银行(601229，未评 级)、渝农商行(601077，买入)；2、基本面稳健、具备较好防御价值的国有大行， 相关标的：交通银行(601328，未评级)、工商银行(601398，未评级)。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；假设条件变化影响测算结果。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 银行行业 行业研究 | 策略报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.42 CNY, based on a projected price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 3 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on AI and data security, aiming to enhance its competitive edge through a strategic framework termed "3+3+X+Y" [2][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.402 billion CNY, 2.546 billion CNY, and 2.857 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory despite previous estimates being lower [3][11]. - The company has made significant improvements in cost control, leading to a reduction in expense ratios and an overall enhancement in operational efficiency [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1.681 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected growth of 40.3% to 2.358 billion CNY in 2024, followed by modest growth rates in subsequent years [5][13]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 53.6% to 54.0% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a strong pricing power and cost management [5][10]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve significantly, moving from -58.1% in 2023 to a positive 8.1% by 2027, showcasing a turnaround in profitability [5][10]. Strategic Focus - The company is actively exploring new security scenarios, including APT tracking, cloud security, and vehicle networking, which are expected to open new revenue streams [10]. - The introduction of innovative products like the AI-Scan model risk assessment tool is aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and effectiveness in threat detection [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 59.87 CNY based on a 2.65x PS multiple for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing improved profitability primarily due to effective cost control, with a significant reduction in expense ratios [9]. - AI security is identified as the strategic core of the company, with the upcoming launch of the "Heng Nao 3.0" platform, which is expected to enhance product competitiveness [9]. - New business segments, particularly data security and MSS services, are showing rapid growth, with data security contracts increasing by nearly 25% year-on-year [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.126 billion, 2.306 billion, and 2.538 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 4.1%, 8.5%, and 10.1% [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 111 million CNY by 2027, with a significant turnaround from a net loss of 360 million CNY in 2023 [5][9]. - Gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 61.8% in 2023 to 58.3% by 2026, while net margin is expected to improve from -16.6% in 2023 to 4.4% in 2027 [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.05 CNY based on a PS valuation method [3][10][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 795 million CNY (YoY -11.4%) and a net loss of 366 million CNY (YoY -51.2%) [2]. - The company experienced a significant drop in Q3 2025 revenue, amounting to 238 million CNY (YoY -31.9%), and a net loss of 157 million CNY (YoY -37.8%) [2]. - Despite the current downturn, the company expects a rebound in revenue due to a 23% increase in new orders in the first nine months of 2025, particularly in long-cycle business areas such as public safety big data and digital governance [9]. - The gross margin decreased to 35% in the first nine months of 2025, down 5.73 percentage points YoY, attributed to weak market demand and increased buyer bargaining power [9]. - The company is focusing on AI-driven products and cost control measures to improve gross margins in the future [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are -318 million CNY, 28 million CNY, and 157 million CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous forecasts [3][10]. - Revenue is expected to decline from 1,984 million CNY in 2023 to 1,689 million CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 2,461 million CNY by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 39% in 2026 and 38.6% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [5]. Market Context - The company operates in the computer industry, with a current market capitalization of approximately 12.8 billion CNY [6]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 19.94 CNY (high) to 11.2 CNY (low) [6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on AI applications and digital transformation initiatives, particularly in collaboration with the State Investment Group [9].

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 耐心等待低位布局时机 朝闻道 20251205 市场策略 耐心等待低位布局时机 风格策略 藏科技进攻的"锋"，待中盘蓝筹的"时" 行业策略 有色：布局正当时 主题策略 计算机：太空算力未来可期，关注核心收益环节 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 05 日 宏观经济增速放缓、关税影响需求与产业链稳定性、原料价格波动、中美关系变化、商业化进展不及预 期。 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 谨慎乐观，藏锋待时：朝闻道 20251203 | 2025-12-02 | | --- | --- | | 12 月开门红可期，震荡格局下先扬后抑： | 2025-11-30 | | 朝闻道 20251201 | | | 反弹高度受限，调仓注重赔率：朝闻道 | 2025-11-27 | | 20251128 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 周一"先扬后抑"的预判得到 ...

精测电子 300567.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 持续推动先进制程前道量测设备突破 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,429 | 2,565 | 3,175 | 3,917 | 4,983 | | 同比增长 (%) | -11.0% | 5.6% | 23.8% | 23.4% | 27.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 129 | (216) | 190 | 448 | 758 | | 同比增长 (%) | -48.2% | -267.4% | 187.9% | 135.6% | 69.4% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 150 | (98) | 201 | 360 | 564 | | 同比增长 (%) | -44.8% | -165.0% | 306.0% | 79.0% | 56.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.54 | (0.35) | 0.72 | 1.29 | 2.02 | | 毛利率( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 91.15 per share, reflecting a reasonable market capitalization of approximately HKD 877.47 billion [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a robust revenue acceleration with a significant increase in profit margins, achieving a net profit of CNY 7.75 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 67.2% [10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 26.95 billion, slightly down from previous estimates due to varying recovery rates among different customer segments [3][10]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its operations, which is expected to enhance matching efficiency and support the expansion into new job categories [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at CNY 5,952 million, with a year-on-year growth of 32%, and is expected to reach CNY 10,390 million by 2027, maintaining a steady growth rate of 12% [5][12]. - The gross margin is expected to remain high at around 84% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 32% to 34% during the same period [5][12]. - The company has a strong cash position, with cash and cash equivalents expected to grow from CNY 2,473 million in 2023 to CNY 11,235 million by 2027 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 135.66 HKD, based on a reasonable valuation of 829.1 billion HKD [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant competition, leading to a focus on high-value orders and a prolonged period of losses. The report suggests that the worst phase of losses may have passed, but the ongoing competition will likely extend the duration of losses [9][12]. - The company's Q3 performance showed a substantial increase in order volume driven by subsidies, but this has negatively impacted average order value (AOV), resulting in a revenue decline of approximately 12% year-on-year [9]. - The report highlights that the company's market share in high-value orders (AOV above 15 HKD) is over two-thirds, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining this segment despite competitive pressures [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 276,745 million HKD - 2024: 337,592 million HKD - 2025: 366,600 million HKD - 2026: 406,302 million HKD - 2027: 462,787 million HKD - The year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline significantly, with 2025 showing only an 8.59% increase [4][16]. - The company is projected to incur losses in the coming years, with net profit estimates for 2025 at -19,633 million HKD and -25,640 million HKD for 2026 [4][16]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the following for 2026: - Delivery and Flash Purchase: 2,097 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 4,516 billion HKD - In-store and Hotel Travel: 170 billion CNY in after-tax operating profit, valued at 2,437 billion HKD - New Business: 1,216 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 1,338 billion HKD - The total estimated market value for the company is 8,291 billion HKD [11][12].