Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Hikvision is recognized as a leading AI application company in China, with rapid growth in innovative business segments [5] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend policy, demonstrating significant effects of high-quality development [5] - Cash flow has improved significantly, with net profit accelerating growth [5] - The company is focusing on profit-centered strategies, enhancing operational quality, and accelerating digital transformation for sustainable growth [11] - Hikvision's self-developed AI model has expanded its application capabilities, significantly improving recognition accuracy and reducing deployment costs [11] - Recent policies are expected to boost market demand for Hikvision's products, particularly in video surveillance [11] Financial Summary - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 1.55, 1.76, and 2.03 yuan respectively, with adjustments made to revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios [7][12] - The target price is set at 47.52 yuan based on a 26-27 times PE valuation level [7][12] - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 89.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [9] - Operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 16.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is projected at 14.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [9] - The gross margin is expected to be 44.3% in 2023, with a slight increase in subsequent years [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 47.52 CNY [1][7] Core Insights - Hikvision is recognized as a leading AI application company in China, with rapid growth in innovative business segments [5] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend strategy, demonstrating significant effects of high-quality development [5] - There is a notable improvement in cash flow and accelerated growth in net profit [5] - The company is focusing on profit-centered strategies, enhancing operational quality, and accelerating digital transformation for sustainable growth [11] - The self-developed AI model, "Guanlan," significantly enhances application capabilities and reduces deployment costs [11] - Recent policies are expected to boost market demand for Hikvision's products, particularly in video surveillance [11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 92,518 million CNY, 103,737 million CNY, and 116,624 million CNY respectively, with a growth rate of 0%, 12%, and 12% [9] - Operating profit for the same period is forecasted at 16,977 million CNY, 19,306 million CNY, and 22,313 million CNY, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 14%, and 16% [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 14,188 million CNY, 16,127 million CNY, and 18,632 million CNY, with growth rates of 18%, 14%, and 16% [9] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.55 CNY, 1.76 CNY, and 2.03 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 45.2% in 2025 to 45.4% in 2027 [9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.1 in 2025 to 15.3 in 2027 [9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.3 in 2025 to 2.6 in 2027 [9] - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is noted to be 31.46 for 2026 [13]

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue chips as the direction for investment [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market recovery [2][6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating significant progress in industry consolidation [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated capacity with advanced production capacity signal a shift towards technological and institutional innovation in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for households and enterprises [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy combination may emerge in 2026 [4][6]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is undergoing a strategic shift from a focus on market share to profitability, driven by internal policy adjustments and external pressures such as anti-dumping investigations [4][7][11] - The report identifies five key sectors with investment potential: MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle flakes, emphasizing the importance of leading companies with significant market share and competitive advantages [4][12][55] Group 1: Industry Trends - The chemical industry has historically prioritized market share, but recent policies and market conditions are prompting a shift towards profitability [7][13] - The supply-side reforms and dual carbon goals have raised entry barriers, leading to increased industry concentration without curbing expansion ambitions [7][13] - The trend of sacrificing market share for improved returns is becoming more prevalent, as companies recognize the need to adapt to changing market dynamics [31][11] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - MDI: The leading company, Wanhua Chemical, is expected to benefit significantly from its strategic shift towards profitability, with potential for substantial earnings growth in 2026 [56] - Petrochemicals: Major players like Sinopec and Rongsheng Petrochemical are undergoing operational adjustments that could reshape industry trends [57] - Phosphate Chemicals: The sector is poised for revaluation due to a tight supply-demand balance and increasing recognition of phosphate's value in energy security [59][60] - PVC: The industry faces strong supply constraints, with emerging markets driving demand growth despite domestic challenges [60] - Polyester Bottle Flakes: The sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to high industry concentration and strategic production limitations by leading firms [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market remains strong this week, with only a significant correction on Tuesday. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is still strong, and the convertible bond ETF has continued to see net inflows since New Year's Day. New bonds are generally priced high recently. In the context of the equity bull - market expectation, significant pullbacks in convertible bonds are unlikely, but the future upward trend space is limited. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities, and pay attention to sub - new bonds and those whose issuers have waived the right to early redemption. Convertible bond valuations may have a slight correction under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during the adjustment [7][10]. - At the beginning of this week, the market continued its strong upward trend, with both the technology and cyclical sectors strengthening. The total market turnover approached 4 trillion yuan. There was a significant divergence in previous popular sectors, with the commercial space sector correcting sharply. After the regulatory authorities increased the margin for margin financing, the market cooled down, and the balance of margin trading and the daily turnover of the entire A - share market decreased significantly. The regulatory authorities further defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market trend will shift from the technology + dividend sectors to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Strengthened Expectations of a Slow Bull Market, Seize Structural Opportunities - The convertible bond market is strong, with a slight correction in the hundred - yuan premium rate, but it remains at a very high level. The short - term demand for convertible bonds is strong, with continuous net inflows into convertible bond ETFs since New Year's Day and high pricing of new bonds. In the equity bull - market expectation, there will be no significant pullbacks in convertible bonds, but the upward space is limited. Structural opportunities should be focused on, and sub - new bonds and those with waived early redemption rights can be emphasized. Convertible bond valuations may correct slightly under regulatory pressure, and investors can allocate during adjustments [10]. - The market was strong at the beginning of the week, with technology and cyclical sectors rising. The total turnover approached 4 trillion yuan, and there was a divergence in popular sectors. After regulatory measures, the market cooled down. The regulatory authorities defined the market as a "slow and long - term bull market" over the weekend. The upward logic remains unchanged in the long - term, and the market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, shifting to mid - cap blue - chip stocks. The cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors are favored [11]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Record - High Trading Volume, Slight Decline in Valuations 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Increased - The equity market rose with increased volume and then declined this week. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed strongly. The Kechuang 50 index rose 2.58%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.18%, the Beizheng 50 index rose 1.58%, the CSI 1000 index rose 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00%, the CSI 2000 index rose 0.94%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.57%, and the SSE 50 index fell 1.74%. In terms of industries, the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly by 616.623 billion yuan to 3.46 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Jin 05 Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [15]. 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, High - Price and Low - Rating Convertible Bonds Performed Well - Convertible bonds rose significantly this week. The hundred - yuan premium rate declined slightly but remained at an absolute high. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 101.923 billion yuan, peaking at 109.860 billion yuan on Wednesday and then falling below 100 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the median conversion price increased 0.9% to 106.0 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 0.8% to 33.1%. In terms of style, high - price and low - rating convertible bonds continued to lead the gains, while high - rating and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [22].

Market Strategy - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks as the preferred investment direction [2][6] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a long-term upward trend anticipated. A shift away from high-risk preferences is seen as beneficial for a healthy market environment [6] Industry Strategy: Coal - The coal industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, with a positive long-term outlook for the sector [3][6] - Recent developments include the strategic restructuring of coal companies, such as the merger of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group, indicating a shift towards enhancing operational quality [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for the clean and efficient use of coal, emphasizing systematic and refined regulation of this primary energy source [6] - Policies aimed at replacing outdated production capacity with advanced capabilities signal a move towards innovation-driven growth in the energy sector [6] Industry Strategy: Real Estate - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more about their intensity rather than quantity, with expectations for impactful measures such as interest rate cuts and direct financial support for homebuyers and distressed companies [4][6] - Recent publications have reinforced the signals for stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, suggesting a stronger policy framework may emerge in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of returns that outperform the market benchmark by over 5% [7]. Core Insights - The effectiveness of real estate policies is more important than their quantity, with a focus on interest rate cuts and direct financial support for enterprises and residents [2]. - Recent publications in "Qiushi" emphasize the importance of managing expectations in stabilizing the real estate market, suggesting a shift from gradual measures to more decisive actions [3]. - The expectation of a stronger policy combination by 2026 is reinforced by ongoing discussions in "Qiushi" regarding real estate and urban renewal [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The minimum down payment for commercial properties has been reduced from 50% to 30%, aimed at lowering entry barriers for buyers amid significant inventory issues [4]. - The interest rate for guaranteed housing re-loans has been cut by 25 basis points to 1.25%, which narrows the gap between funding costs and net rental yields, although large-scale storage initiatives still require further policy support [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the timing and intensity of policy announcements in 2026, with a left-side layout strategy recommended [5]. - Three categories of investment targets are highlighted for potential excess returns: 1. Quality developers with low historical burdens and strong sales growth expectations [5]. 2. Commercial real estate operations, particularly shopping centers that can maintain growth in a slowing economy [5]. 3. Real estate brokerage platforms that leverage scale and brand advantages for better bargaining power [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, with domestic risk assessments steadily declining, favoring A-shares[7] - A-shares and commodities continue to show strong trends, while the mid-term uncertainty for commodities has increased, whereas A-shares and gold remain stable[42] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the social financing data showed a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan, indicating a tightening in financing demand[15] - The U.S. inflation data remains relatively mild, with the December 2025 CPI growth at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, leading to a reduced expectation for interest rate cuts[16] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory measures have been implemented to manage market expectations, including increasing the margin ratio for financing from 80% to 100% to curb excessive speculation[20] - The regulatory approach aims to stabilize the market and prevent extreme fluctuations, indicating an improvement in the governance of the capital market[20] Group 4: Asset Performance - A-shares showed a weekly decline of 0.45% for the Shanghai Composite Index, while the CSI 500 index increased by 2.18%[11] - Gold prices increased by 2.23% over the week, maintaining a strong trend alongside commodities[11]

Economic Overview - Q4 GDP growth achieved 5%, meeting the target despite a downward trend in consumption and investment[5] - December retail sales growth fell to 0.9% YoY, down from 1.3% in November, indicating persistent weakness in domestic demand[5] Consumption Insights - The cumulative retail sales growth for the year was 3.7%, with non-automotive retail sales growing at 4.4%[5] - December saw a significant drop in automotive sales growth, from over 90% in June to -1.5% by year-end, influenced by local registration policies[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative YoY decline of 3.8%, worsening from -2.6% the previous month, with real estate investment down 17.2% YoY, marking a historical low[5] - High-growth sectors include logistics and emerging technologies, with pipeline transportation investment up 36% and internet services investment up 23.8%[5] Production Performance - Industrial value-added growth in December was 5.2%, better than previous months, with high-tech industries growing 11% YoY, outperforming overall industrial growth[5] - Export delivery value for large industrial enterprises increased by 3.2% YoY in December, ending two months of negative growth[5] Future Outlook - The focus on "strong supply and weak demand" is expected to bring more domestic demand highlights in 2026, potentially boosting consumption and investment[5] - The anticipated "soft opening" for 2026 is supported by fiscal measures and local growth initiatives[5]

资产配置 | 定期报告 风偏继续向中间集中 20260119 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 20 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | --- | --- | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配置周报 | | | 配置关注权益商品，行业聚焦中盘蓝筹： | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 ...