机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 全球能源安全焦虑升温，看好矿山机械电 动化进程加速 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 高油价下，全球能源安全焦虑升温，电动矿山设备优势凸显，看好电动矿用卡车、 电动矿用挖掘机等设备份额加速提升，国内相关设备厂商有望受益。相关标的： 徐 工机械(000425，未评级)、三一国际(00631，未评级)、同力股份(920599，未评 级)、北方股份(600262，未评级)。 风险提示 宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、行业政策不及预期、矿企资本开支不及预期、矿山项 目进展不及预期、全球贸易摩擦风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 29 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 特斯拉 V3 即将落地，有望成为明星产品， | 2026-02-06 | | --- | --- | | 行业发展加速：——机器人产业跟踪 | | | 顺应人形机器人拟人化趋势，关注 AMR 传 | 2026-02-06 | | ...

食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 食品饮料：下游反弹，白酒优先 食品饮料行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 上游主线： 1）农产品加工：相关标的中粮科技(000930，未评级)、安德利(605198，未评级)、冠农 股份(600251，未评级)、祖名股份(003030，未评级)； 李耀 执业证书编号：S0860525100001 香港证监会牌照：BXH218 liyao@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 2）食品原料供应商：华康股份(605077，未评级)、晨光生物(300138，未评级)、阜丰集 团(00546，未评级)；3）牧业：推荐优然牧业(09858，买入)，相关标的现代牧业 (01117，未评级)； 下游主线： 1）白酒，推荐山西汾酒(600809，买入)、五粮液(000858，买入)、舍得酒业(600702， 买入)、今世缘(603369，买入)、古井贡酒(000596，买入)、贵州茅台(600519，买入)； 2）餐饮供应链：推荐颐海国际(01579，买入)、千味央厨(001215，增持)，华润啤酒 (00291，买入)、青岛啤酒(600600，买入)，相关标的 ...

食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 食品饮料：下游反弹，白酒优先 食品饮料行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 上游主线： 1）农产品加工：相关标的中粮科技(000930，未评级)、安德利(605198，未评级)、冠农 股份(600251，未评级)、祖名股份(003030，未评级)； 2）食品原料供应商：华康股份(605077，未评级)、晨光生物(300138，未评级)、阜丰集 团(00546，未评级)；3）牧业：推荐优然牧业(09858，买入)，相关标的现代牧业 (01117，未评级)； 下游主线： 1）白酒，推荐山西汾酒(600809，买入)、五粮液(000858，买入)、舍得酒业(600702， 买入)、今世缘(603369，买入)、古井贡酒(000596，买入)、贵州茅台(600519，买入)； 2）餐饮供应链：推荐颐海国际(01579，买入)、千味央厨(001215，增持)，华润啤酒 (00291，买入)、青岛啤酒(600600，买入)，相关标的锅圈(02517，未评级)、安井食品 (603345，未评级)、千禾味业(603027，未评级)、海天味业(603288，未评级)； 3）乳制品：推荐新 ...

钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 钢铁周报：库存去化明显，钢价回升可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注先进钢铁材料占比持续提升、产品结构不断优化的南钢股份(600282，买 入)，特钢出口龙头企业中信特钢(000708，买入)；在国际地缘政治动荡，能源安全 重要性愈发提升趋势下，建议关注受益于核电景气周期、专注高端特钢管材制造、 供应核聚变装置关键部件的久立特材(002318，买入)，在海外缺电趋势下燃气轮机 余热锅炉管制造龙头的常宝股份(002478，买入)；其他标的：包钢股份(600010，未 评级)。 风险提示 宏观经济发生较大波动风险；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性风险；原料价格波动风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 28 日 看好（维持） 于嘉懿 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry [5]. Core Insights - Pop Mart's entry into the small home appliance market is expected to have a limited impact on existing domestic small appliance companies, but it may drive innovation in product design through a "catfish effect" [3]. - The larger significance of Pop Mart's move is to accelerate the international expansion of domestic small appliance brands, which have previously relied heavily on ODM models for overseas revenue [8]. Summary by Sections Market Entry and Product Launch - Pop Mart announced its entry into the small home appliance sector, with products set to launch in April, including electric kettles, coffee machines, electric toothbrushes, and hair dryers [8]. - The company plans to adopt a light asset model by collaborating with domestic small appliance manufacturers and aims to target both domestic and international markets [8]. Market Size and Competition - The Chinese and global markets for coffee machines are projected to reach CNY 3.8 billion and USD 20.6 billion respectively by 2024; electric kettles are expected to reach CNY 10.1 billion and USD 35.7 billion; electric toothbrushes are projected at CNY 7.5 billion and USD 9.511 billion; and hair dryers at USD 1.6 billion and USD 4.6 billion by 2025 [8]. - The domestic small appliance market is relatively stable, with established brands holding significant market share and manufacturing advantages [8]. Strategic Implications - Pop Mart's entry is anticipated to create a differentiation in competition through IP empowerment, which may limit the impact on existing players [8]. - The report highlights that the entry of Pop Mart could help build a brand barrier for other domestic brands looking to expand internationally, leveraging its existing overseas channels [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (02268.HK) with a target price of HKD 68.47, reflecting a strong long-term growth outlook despite short-term challenges [3][5]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec is positioned as a global leader in ADC CRDMO, with a solid order backlog and capacity expansion plans. The company is expected to experience robust long-term growth, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at RMB 14.8 billion, RMB 20.3 billion, and RMB 27.1 billion respectively [3][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 59.4 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.7%, with overseas revenue contributing 85% of total sales, indicating a significant increase in international market penetration [10]. - The report highlights the company's strong order intake, with new orders totaling USD 1.33 billion in 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year, and a backlog of USD 1.49 billion, up 50.3% year-on-year, ensuring a solid revenue foundation [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 2,124 million (2023), RMB 4,052 million (2024), RMB 5,944 million (2025), RMB 8,129 million (2026), and RMB 10,844 million (2027), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 114.4%, 90.8%, 46.7%, 36.8%, and 33.4% [4]. - The company's gross profit is expected to reach RMB 21.4 billion in 2025, with a gross margin of 36.0%, reflecting operational efficiency improvements and increased capacity utilization [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 1.48 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 24.9% [4][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Supply constraints are expected to push tin prices upward, driven by ongoing demand from AI and the electronics sector [4][8] - The global tin supply is facing challenges due to energy shortages in Africa and Southeast Asia, which may lead to a secondary supply shock [4][10] - The long-term outlook for tin prices remains bullish due to declining ore grades and structural demand growth from AI and electronics [4][11] Supply Side - Short-term Review - Tin supply has shown marginal recovery with Myanmar's resumption of production, but it has not yet returned to normal levels [9] - As of February 2026, China imported approximately 6,677 million tons of tin ore from Myanmar, a year-on-year increase of over 150%, but still only half of the level from the same period in 2024 [9] Supply Side - Mid-term Assessment - Energy shortages in Africa and Southeast Asia are beginning to significantly impact tin mining supply, with high processing and transportation costs [10] - In February 2026, China imported 17,000 tons of tin ore, with Myanmar accounting for 39% of imports [10] Supply Side - Long-term Outlook - The global static tin resource-to-production ratio has dropped to levels significantly lower than other base metals, indicating ongoing supply tightness [11] - The long-term trend of declining ore grades and rising extraction costs is expected to continue, supporting a bullish outlook for tin prices [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (02268.HK) with a target price of HKD 68.47, reflecting a strong long-term growth outlook despite short-term challenges [3][5]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec is positioned as a global leader in ADC CRDMO, with a solid order backlog and capacity layout. The company is expected to experience strong long-term growth momentum, even though short-term performance may be impacted by the integration of Dongyao and the ramp-up of new capacities [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 59.4 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.7%. The overseas revenue share increased to 85%, driven by active licensing, New-Co, and M&A transactions [10]. - The company signed new orders worth USD 1.33 billion in 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year, with a backlog of USD 1.49 billion, up 50.3% year-on-year, indicating a robust short-term order reserve [10]. - The company has established a strong commercial pipeline with 69 projects advancing to the iCMC stage and has signed 70 new iCMC projects, showcasing efficient commercial funnel operations [10]. - A recent licensing agreement with Earendil Labs for the WuxiTecan-2 payload-linker technology platform, valued at USD 885 million, highlights the company's ability to explore new revenue streams through technology licensing and collaboration [10]. Financial Summary - The projected financials for WuXi AppTec from 2023 to 2027 indicate significant growth, with revenues expected to reach RMB 10,844 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.4% [4]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 26.3% in 2023 to 36.6% by 2027, while net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 25% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.23 in 2023 to RMB 2.15 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [4].

投资策略 | 定期报告 海外压力仍在，聚焦安全主线 策略周度思考 20260327 研究结论 风险提示 市场表现不及预期、风险定价可能不充分、产业发展不及预期、模型设定风险。 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 28 日 张陈 执业证书编号：S0860526010004 zhangchen2@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 如何构造"效率-安全"的二维分析框架： 策略周度思考 20260322 2026-03-22 如何计算大宗商品隐含地缘风险溢价：策 略周度思考 20260313 2026-03-13 全 球 滞 胀 预 期 升 温 ： 策 略 周 度 思 考 20260307 2026-03-07 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 策略周度思考—海外压力仍在，聚焦安全主线 ⚫ 1、本周中东局势出现反复，油价、全球权益市场随之大幅波动，然而美债利率持续 稳定上行。这意味着市场正在对油价中枢提升、流动性偏紧的环境进行定价，这将 对全球风险偏好形成持续压制。流动性偏紧、风 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the transportation industry, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [3][7]. Core Insights - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, are expected to accelerate the realization of geopolitical options, leading to increased demand for oil transportation due to concerns over energy security and excessive inventory replenishment [3][7]. - The oil transportation supply-demand dynamics are projected to improve significantly, driven by increased oil production in 2025 and sustained sanctions, which will enhance industry profitability [3][7]. - The report highlights that the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates remain high, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) reaching approximately $400,000 per day, despite fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions [7][12]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The conflict in the Middle East has led to a more than 95% reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 8% of VLCCs stranded in the area [7][12]. - VLCC rates have surged, with initial spikes reaching $600,000 per day, currently stabilizing around $400,000 per day, indicating historical high levels [7][12]. Supply Chain Adjustments - To mitigate the impact of the Strait's closure, Middle Eastern countries are utilizing alternative ports and pipelines, with Saudi Arabia increasing its export capacity to 7 million barrels per day [7][12]. - The IEA has authorized the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, with the U.S. contributing the largest share of 172.2 million barrels [16]. Future Demand Drivers - The report anticipates that strategic inventory replenishment will be a key driver of oil transportation demand, with the U.S. planning to replenish approximately 200 million barrels of strategic reserves over the next year [7][12]. - Concerns over energy security are expected to lead to increased inventory levels among traditional energy-consuming countries, further boosting oil transportation needs [7][12].