看好（维持） 卢日鑫 021-63325888*6118 gugaochen@orientsec.com.cn 24 年欧洲能源价格抑制部分光储需求，25 年能源价格上涨存在契机 投资建议与投资标的 电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 2024 年欧洲整体光伏发展受到抑制，能源价格、地缘格局等多重原因影响装机起量。根据 SolarPower Europe 的最新报告，预计 2024 年欧盟太阳能光伏新增装机容量将达到 65.5GW。相 较过去几年高速增长后，2024 年欧洲的太阳能增长速度放缓。2024 年前三季度基本感知到相应 增速放缓迹象，2024 年天然气危机有所缓解，终端能源价格回落，C 端对太阳能的紧迫性有所减 弱；叠加欧洲部分国家在 2024-2025 年见面临换届/选举等格局波动因子干扰，整体新能源投建观 望情绪也起到一定抑制作用。 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 22 日 顾高臣 021-63325888*6119 执业证书编号：S0860523050001 ⚫ 欧洲能源价格修复不及预期，海外光储需求不及预期、地缘风险、汇率风险。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信 ...

地 豆包大模型全面更新，加速多模态应用落 我们预期，以 AI+搜索为主的需求（即信息搜索场景需求）转移到豆包，包括多模态如图 片、语音、音乐、视频等场景，带动用户数和使用时长进一步快速提升，从而影响搜索 行业市占率变化，也会带来搜索广告的份额转移。 此外，产业链相关机会： ⚫ AI+广告：建议关注蓝色光标(300058，未评级)、易点天下(301171，未评级)、省广 集团(002400，未评级)、浙文互联(600986，未评级)； ⚫ AI+电商：建议关注值得买(300785，买入)； ⚫ AI+IP：建议关注上海电影(601595，未评级)、奥飞娱乐(002292，未评级)。 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 看好 （维持） | | 国家 / 地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2024 年 12 月 20 日 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 分析师 ...

核心观点 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------| | | | | C 端有望形成新的流量入口， B 商、游戏、教育等产业链投资机会。 C 端层面，豆包 App MAU 6000 万、 | 端与多行业共同部署大模型落地，关注广告、电 DAU 900 | | 万，为国内用户量 top1 的 AI 应用，并有望借助 AI | 能力加持焕发新的流量入口生 | | 机。 B 端层面，基于豆包大模型的技术能力，火山引擎已经与 30 | 余个行业外部企业 | | 共创豆包大模型商业落地。 | | | 投资建议与投资标的 | | 风险提示 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 | --- | --- | |--------|-------------------------------| | | | | 项雯倩 | 0 ...

宏观经济 | 策略报告 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 19 日 烧灯续昼：2025 年海外宏观展望 研究结论 ⚫ 2025 年美国宏观经济图景： ⚫ 增长方面，居民消费增速高位放缓的压力构成主要的逆风，企业资本开支、房地产 基于预期/盈利/降息改善的可能性是潜在的顺风。就业市场的惯性放缓仍是主要的超 预期下侧风险因素。温和放缓为基准情形。 ⚫ 去通胀的趋势最终将被证明是持续的，而过程很可能仍无法避免颠簸，期间不排除 通胀叙事的反复。这种颠簸难以在事前具体预测，基准情形下，我们预计美国 CPI 将在 2025 年于 2.3-3.1%的区间运行，核心 CPI 在 2.4-3.5%的区间运行，高点均在 一季度。名义和核心 CPI 在 25 年底均落位 2.5-3%左右。整体通胀在年初、年尾偏 高。核心通胀在年初高，全年趋势下行，成为去通胀的主要依靠。 ⚫ 特朗普新政的冲击，将会是 2025 年宏观环境在基线情形以外所必须考虑的变数。 ⚫ 在完成本轮周期软着陆的目标约束下，2025 年特朗普新政将以相对理性的节奏设计 推进。上任第一年对增长、通胀、财政影响均相对温和。主要的现实和预期冲击集 中在 25 年早期 ...

"反内卷"推动走向高质量发展，行业景 气度有望提升 ——电力设备行业周报 核心观点 ⚫ 国家综合整治"内卷式"竞争，市场价格竞争有望趋于理性。中央经济工作会议在 北京举行。会议提到，以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系，综 合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为。推动"三北"工程标志性战役 取得重要成果，加快"沙戈荒"新能源基地建设。国家发改委工作会议召开，提到 大力支持制造业高质量发展，综合整治"内卷式"竞争。政策限制光伏产能的扩 张，预计组件离岸价格回暖。制据 WoodMac 统计，截至 2024 年 10 月，中国共计 出口光伏组件与电池片 38 亿美金，其中光伏组件 217GW 和电池片 43GW。预计在 2025 年中国 TOPCon 组件离岸价格将有所回暖。 ⚫ 2025 年全国能源工作会议召开，行业发展趋势向好。2025 年全国能源工作会议在 京召开。会议提出，坚持绿色低碳转型，持续推动能源结构优化调整，大力推进风 电光伏开发利用，统筹水电开发和生态保护，积极安全有序发展核电，统筹推进新 型电力系统建设。预计截至 2024 年底，全国风电装机约 5.1 亿千瓦，全国光伏装机 约 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 19 日 | --- | --- | |--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号： S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号： S0860520010001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号： S0860518050001 香港证监会牌照： BQJ932 | | | | 戴思崴 daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------- ...

看好（维持） 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 18 日 倪吉 021-63325888*7504 niji@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 万里扬 021-63325888*2504 wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 顾雪莺 guxueying@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523080005 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 策略报告 站在新秩序的起点 化工行业 2025 年度投资策略 核心观点 ⚫ 格局重塑：2016 年以来，我国化工行业通过供给侧改革、提升石化行业竞争力、推 动高质量发展等产业政策，实现了快速的规范化、大型化、一体化，竞争力大幅提 升。在龙头企业份额快速扩张的过程中，难免伴随着景气度下滑的副作用，这也恰 好催动行业格局发生动态变化。而行业格局重塑之后，行业回报率有望提升到新平 衡。过去一段时间的氟化工就演绎着类似逻辑，我们预计在 MDI、磷化工、甜味剂 等行业也有望发生。 ⚫ 贸易壁垒：我国化工竞争力提升的第二个副 ...

建材行业 行业研究 | 策略报告 预期逐渐改善，重视估值修复机会 ——建筑建材行业 2025 年度投资策略 核心观点 ⚫ 主线：期待房地产"止跌企稳"，建材基本面拐点渐行渐近。政治局会议明确提出 促进房地产"止跌企稳"，政策空间仍然存在。建材下游需求深度绑定地产，因此 盈利、成长预期与其息息相关。地产政策的持续加码和销售趋势性企稳预期，将带 来消费建材整体估值中枢的上移。未来在行业稳态竞争格局下，我们认为龙头企业 仍然将凭借自身品牌和渠道建设优势进一步提升市场占有率，同时借助多品类扩张 打开成长天花板。如：板材龙头兔宝宝、石膏板龙头北新建材、防水材料龙头东方 雨虹、管材龙头伟星新材。水泥行业供需均有积极变化预期，行业景气度有望维 持。 ⚫ 主线：地方政府化债&市值管理，重视建筑板块估值修复。地方政府隐形债务化解 迎来重大政策，人大批准增加化债资金 10 万亿元，有望轻装上阵，五年累计可节约 利息 6000 亿元左右，此外也可畅通资金链条，增强发展动能。地方政府或者城投公 司借债投向的重点是基础设施建设，建筑企业深度参与其中，应收类资产较大比例 来自于地方欠款，我们认为相关公司资产负债表和利润表均有修复预期。2 ...

——汽车行业 2025 年度投资策略 国改、智驾、出海，投资机会共振 核心观点 ⚫ 行业变局中，关注国改、智驾、出海的投资机会。回顾 2024 年，自主品牌和新势 力加快推进电动化、智能化技术迭代，自主品牌新能源车型实现对合资品牌燃油车 型的领先。展望 2025 年，预计新能源乘用车竞争格局仍存变局可能，预计头部新势 力和自主品牌将进一步强化在智能化、生态化等领域优势，强者恒强，市场份额继 续提升。在中央及地方政府支持下，预计国企将通过深化改革、加强外部合作等实 现困境反转，整车国企仍有望在乘用车市场保持一定份额。 ⚫ 整车：预计扩内需政策促进乘用车需求平稳，重卡维持平稳增长。以旧换新政策效 果释放带动国内乘用车需求改善，自主品牌表现强势。预计 2024 年国内狭义乘用车 销量 2700 万辆左右，同比增长 5%，预计 2025 年报废更新及置换更新政策或将延 续，预计狭义乘用车销量同比增长 2%左右。2024 年 1-10 月自主品牌市占率达 64.6%，较 2023 全年提升 8.7 个百分点。1-10 月狭义乘用车出口 405.38 万辆，同 比增长 26.0%。重卡：预计明年平稳增长，新能源重卡表现亮 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Views 2024 Industry Review - Weak domestic demand was the dominant factor affecting the performance of domestic brands, leading to pressure on the earnings of listed companies, including low-valuation/high-dividend theme leaders [2] - The rapid rise in gold prices significantly weakened the prosperity of the gold and jewelry industry, with Laopu Gold being one of the few companies in the sector to achieve growth against the trend [2] - The export manufacturing sector regained growth momentum in 2024 as overseas brands completed their inventory destocking cycle, with Vietnam's export data and the growth rates of Taiwanese footwear and apparel companies showing significant improvement [2] 2025 Investment Strategy for Domestic Brands - The recovery elasticity of domestic consumption is expected, driven by policy support, with a focus on the breadth and intensity of policy measures [2] - The report is optimistic about the certainty and continuity of future consumption stimulus policies, with a potential valuation recovery in the sector if policies are implemented as expected [2] - Small-cap stocks performed better after September 2024, but the report predicts that leading brands with solid fundamentals will show better stock price elasticity as domestic demand gradually recovers, likely around mid-2025 [2] 2025 Investment Strategy for Export Manufacturing - The report is optimistic about the resilience of leading companies and advises paying attention to U.S. tariff policies [2] - Historical data shows that leading companies did not experience a significant decline in their export share to the U.S./Americas during Trump's first term, and domestic companies accelerated the relocation of their supply chains to Southeast Asia to avoid tariff impacts [2] - The report expects that the market sentiment may be affected in the short term if Trump's tariff policies are implemented in 2025, but the impact is likely to be smaller than the previous round [2] Investment Recommendations and Targets Domestic Brands - Four key areas are recommended: 1) sectors directly benefiting from policy support, such as home textiles and multi-child concept beneficiaries; 2) outdoor and functional sportswear as a medium-to-long-term allocation; 3) medical aesthetics/cosmetics as an offensive sector; 4) low-valuation, high-dividend themes [3] - Specific companies recommended include Luolai Lifestyle, Fuanna, Mercury Home Textile, Semir, Anta Sports, Li Ning, Bosideng, and others [3] Export Manufacturing - The report recommends leading companies with high overseas production capacity, strong global competitiveness in niche markets, and clear capacity expansion plans, such as Shenzhou International, Weixing Shares, and Huali Group [3] Industry Performance and Trends Domestic Brands - Weak demand in 2024 significantly impacted the overall performance of listed companies, with the performance of low-valuation/high-dividend theme leaders also under pressure [25] - The rapid rise in gold prices in 2024, with a 29% increase year-to-date, negatively affected the gold and jewelry industry, leading to a decline in same-store sales for major players like Chow Tai Fook [44] - Industry valuations showed a turning point in September 2024, driven by policy expectations, with valuations for the textile and apparel sector stabilizing after a period of decline [54] Export Manufacturing - The export manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in 2024, with Vietnam's footwear and textile exports turning positive and Taiwanese footwear and apparel companies experiencing improved revenue growth [56] - Leading companies like Huali Group and Shenzhou International showed divergent performance, with Huali Group outperforming due to its higher overseas production capacity and better future earnings expectations [63] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The report highlights the significant impact of the "trade-in" policy on domestic consumption, particularly in the home textile sector, with some regions expanding the policy to include home textiles [74] - The report expects further expansion of consumption stimulus policies in 2025, with potential extensions to service consumption and other areas, which could drive sustainable consumption recovery [83] - The report predicts that the recovery of domestic brand companies' earnings will likely occur in the second half of 2025, with valuation recovery expected to precede earnings improvement [87] Key Investment Themes Outdoor and Functional Sportswear - The outdoor and functional sportswear sector is expected to perform well in the long term, driven by favorable competitive dynamics, low penetration rates, and clear consumption upgrade trends [95] - Companies like Anta Sports have shown strong growth in niche categories such as outdoor and skiing, outperforming their main brands [96] Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics - The medical aesthetics and cosmetics sector is seen as an offensive play, with valuation upside potential as the sector's valuation remains below historical averages [99] - The report notes that domestic brands have made significant progress in product development, efficacy, and marketing, which could lead to increased market share in the medium term [106] Export Manufacturing and Tariff Risks - The report advises caution regarding potential U.S. tariff policies under a Trump administration but remains optimistic about the resilience of leading export manufacturers due to their overseas production capacity and ability to mitigate tariff risks [116] - The report expects that the impact of tariff policies on the sector's valuation will be less severe than in the previous round, given the market's more prepared expectations [121]