Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the computer industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [5]. Core Insights - The continuous development of domestic AI large models, the ongoing enhancement of domestic AI chip performance, and the flourishing of AI applications are expected to drive the sustained growth of China's AI industry, thereby boosting market confidence in AI development [3][8]. Summary by Sections Domestic AI Development - Recent months have seen a slight decline in domestic AI enthusiasm, but recent catalysts in AI models, applications, and computing power are beginning to restore market confidence [8]. - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) showcased significant advancements in domestic AI chip performance, exceeding market expectations, with companies like Huawei and MuXi unveiling new products [8]. AI Applications - Breakthroughs in AI applications such as embodied intelligence, AI glasses, and AI agents are expected to reignite investment interest in the AI sector [8]. - Notable products include Alibaba's Quark AI glasses, which integrate various functionalities, and the Galbot humanoid robot capable of precise item recognition in real-world settings [8]. Investment Recommendations - For AI computing chain investments, the report suggests focusing on companies like Cambricon (未评级), Haiguang Information (Buy), and Inspur Information (未评级) among others [8]. - In the AI application sector, recommended stocks include Kingsoft Office (Buy), Tax Friend (Buy), and Fanwei Network (Buy) [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights the re-pricing risk of the components of the Sci-Tech Bond ETF index, suggesting that investors should avoid chasing high prices [5][10][19] - The average "overheated" yield spread of the Sci-Tech Bond ETF index components is approximately 7 basis points, with the top 25% showing around 12 basis points [15][19] - The report indicates that the "overheated" performance of the Sci-Tech Bond ETF index components is closely linked to liquidity improvements and the rhythm of ETF listings and redemptions [19][20] Group 2 - The report notes that the overall adjustment in the bond market has not significantly negatively impacted the valuation of the index components, maintaining a stable valuation gap compared to non-index components [20][21] - It emphasizes the need to be cautious of potential negative feedback from redemptions, which could lead to significant price adjustments for the index components [20][21] - The report suggests that current trading opportunities for the Sci-Tech Bond ETF index components are limited, advising against further price chasing [20][21] Group 3 - The report observes a significant increase in credit bond issuance, with a total of 350.8 billion yuan issued, reflecting a 25% week-on-week increase, while the total repayment amount also rose to 295.9 billion yuan [27][30] - It highlights that the average valuation of credit bonds has increased significantly, with an average rise of about 11 basis points across various grades [30][31] - The report indicates that credit spreads have generally widened, with an average increase of approximately 4 basis points, particularly in the short-term [30][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing its mid-term investment value under the "anti-involution" policy context [9][14]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is expected to have fundamental support for mid-term investment value, driven by supply-side, cost, and profit release expectations [9][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a short-term catalyst for realizing mid-term investment logic, with three favorable mid-term logic points identified [9][14]. Supply and Demand Logic - The ultra-low emission transformation is nearing completion, which is expected to reverse structural supply issues and serve as a mid-term capacity clearance tool [15]. - As of April 20, 2025, approximately 760 million tons of capacity have completed or partially completed ultra-low emission transformations [15]. - Downstream demand from infrastructure and shipbuilding industries is anticipated to grow, supporting steel price stabilization and profit release [15]. Cost Logic - The West Mangu project is set to commence production by the end of 2025, with an annual output of 120 million tons, potentially contributing nearly 5% to global supply [15]. - The project is expected to alleviate profit pressure on midstream steel companies from upstream raw material costs [15]. High Dividend Logic - With the completion of ultra-low emission transformations and capacity replacements, capital expenditures for steel companies are expected to decline [15]. - The report anticipates accelerated profit release for midstream steel companies, making high dividends a reality [15]. Steel Price Outlook - The report indicates that the steel price index is expected to continue rising, with a notable increase of 4.16% in the overall steel price index this week [35]. - The price of cold-rolled steel has seen a significant rise of 4.67% [35]. Inventory and Production Data - The report notes a weekly rebar consumption of 2.17 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.05% [16]. - Social inventory and steel mill inventory are showing signs of divergence, with expectations for continued improvement on the demand side [22]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95% in lithium carbonate production in June 2025, reaching 71,890 tons [39]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with June 2025 production of 1.1923 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.11% [43]. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen significantly, reaching 77,000 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 17.56% [48]. - Nickel prices have also shown upward trends, with LME nickel settling at 15,330 USD per ton [48].

Election Results - The ruling coalition (LDP + Komeito) failed to secure a majority, holding 122 seats, 3 seats short of the majority line of 125 seats[9] - The opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Party for the People, increased their seats from 9 to 22, and the Sanseito party grew from 2 to 15 seats[10] Political Implications - Japan's political landscape has shifted to a more balanced power structure, making legislative processes more challenging as the ruling coalition must collaborate with opposition parties[15] - Prime Minister Ishihara's control is weakened, with a public support rate dropping to 20.8%, the lowest in history[15] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The ruling coalition shows a conservative inclination towards fiscal expansion, while opposition parties advocate for more aggressive measures like consumption tax cuts and increased social welfare[16] - The likelihood of significant fiscal policy changes is limited, with potential progress expected in 2026[16] Monetary Policy Impact - The impact on monetary policy is expected to be minimal, with the Bank of Japan likely to maintain its current stance until uncertainties regarding inflation and tariffs are resolved[20] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan may resume interest rate hikes in early 2026[20] Market Reactions - The risk of fiscal expansion has been priced in, leading to a stabilization of Japanese government bonds and the yen[28] - The global trend towards fiscal expansion is reinforced, with developed markets like the US, Europe, and Japan signaling marginal changes in fiscal policy in 2025[28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the transformation and upgrading of the industry, highlighting the investment opportunities in companies with genuine brand strength [3][8] - The report notes that the gold jewelry sector is facing challenges due to rising gold prices and declining sales, with a significant drop in gold jewelry consumption [8] - Despite industry pressures, certain leading companies have seen stock price increases due to their differentiated transformation strategies and market expectations [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on companies that have begun to establish a brand presence, including: - Chao Hong Ji (002345, Increase) - Lao Pu Gold (06181, Increase) - Chow Tai Fook (01929, Not Rated) - Lao Feng Xiang (600612, Buy) - Zhou Da Sheng (002867, Increase) [3] Industry Overview - The report indicates that gold jewelry consumption in China decreased by 3.54% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with gold jewelry sales down by 26.00% [8] - The average gold price in China for the first half of 2025 was 725.28 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.07% [8] - The report highlights a shift in consumer demand towards self-purchase and emotional consumption, particularly among younger consumers [8] Future Trends - The report anticipates a trend towards brandization and stratified development in the gold jewelry sector, with investment opportunities emerging from both high-end and light luxury fashion brands [8] - High-end brands are expected to focus on original design and craftsmanship, while light luxury brands will cater to younger consumers with affordable, stylish products [8]

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 IH 升水回落，IC 及 IM 深贴水，持续关注 中小盘贴水套利机会 分红对期指的影响 20250725 研究结论 | 上证50股指期货 | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2508 | 2795.60 | 2.43 | 0.09 | 2.52 | | IH2509 | 2796.80 | 3.57 | 1.29 | 4.86 | | IH2512 | 2798.00 | 3.57 | 2.49 | 6.06 | | IH2603 | 2801.00 | 3.57 | 5.49 | 9.06 | | 沪深300股指期货 | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | IF2508 | 4122.80 | 4.81 | -4.36 | 0.45 | | IF2509 | 4116.00 | 8.56 | -11.16 | -2.61 | | IF2512 | 4088.80 | 8.56 | -38.36 | -29.81 | | IF2603 | 4055.80 | 8.56 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 Trend 风格领衔，三个月机构覆盖因子表现 出色，建议关注走势延续性强的资产 ——东方因子周报 杨怡玲 yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 研究结论 投资建议 风格表现监控 本周市场正收益风格集中在 Trend 风格上，负收益风格表现在 Volatility 风格上。三 个月机构覆盖是中证全指成分股中，本周表现最好的因子。 因子表现监控 公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 风险提示 量化模型失效风险、 市场极端环境冲击。 | 重点关注科技医药双主线和中小盘高成长 | 2025-07-24 | | --- | --- | | 主题基金：——主动权益基金 2025 年二季 | | | 报全解析 | | | DFQ-FactorGCL：基于超图卷积神经网络 | 2025-07-21 | | 和时间残差对比学习的股票收益预测模 | | | 型：——因子选股系列之一一七 | | | 捕捉趋势的力量：基金动量刻画新范式： | 2025-06-12 | | ——FOF 研究系列 | | | ADWM：基于门控机制的自适应动态因子 | 202 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to accelerate its rise, with a shift in leading sectors towards technology. The index is anticipated to continue its upward trend without significant resistance, as evidenced by the recent increases in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.67%, ChiNext Index up 2.76%, and Sci-Tech 50 Index up 4.63% [2][13]. - There is an imminent change in the leading structure of industries and themes. Last week, the leading sectors included construction materials (up 8.2%), coal (up 8.0%), steel (up 7.7%), and non-ferrous metals (up 6.7%), driven by themes such as "anti-involution" and hydropower station developments. However, the report suggests that the current phase of rapid price increases may be nearing its end, and market expectations for policy announcements may not exceed optimistic forecasts [3][14]. - The technology sector is expected to become the main focus of attention as the rapid rise of cyclical sectors comes to an end. The report emphasizes that technology will be the main line of the upcoming market trends [4][15]. Group 2 - The report maintains a positive outlook on artificial intelligence (AI) as a key theme, predicting significant marginal changes in the AI industry over the next 1-2 months. The release of new models, such as OpenAI's GPT-5, is expected to stimulate competition and drive growth in the sector [5][16]. - Within the AI theme, the report highlights strong potential in domestic computing power, AI applications, PCB-related sectors, and robotics. It argues that domestic computing power is crucial for national development and will likely receive continued policy support. AI applications are expected to gain traction as new models are released, while the PCB sector remains in an upward trend. Robotics, as a significant application of AI, is also projected to follow the growth of the AI sector [6][17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The integrated combat system of China is expected to rapidly open up the market, with military trade likely to continue increasing [16][17]. - In Q2 2025, active funds have significantly increased their overweight position in the military sector, with expectations for further increases focusing on military trade and new combat directions [21]. - The current market position remains optimistic for the military sector, with upstream components and key materials expected to benefit from demand amplification effects [22]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Military Trade and Equipment Strength - The Weapon Industry Group showcased China's military trade capabilities in unmanned and counter-unmanned systems, indicating a growing demand for military trade [9][16]. - The demonstration included various advanced equipment such as the BZK-005E drone and the Tianlong 100 air defense missile system, highlighting the capabilities of China's integrated combat system [17][18]. 1.2 Fund Allocation Trends - In Q2 2025, the overweight position of active funds in the military sector increased to 0.92 percentage points, up from 0.57 percentage points in Q1 2025, indicating a growing confidence in military trade and new combat technologies [21][22]. - The report suggests that the market's understanding of the marginal elasticity of military trade is still insufficient, with potential for performance releases to strengthen military trade logic [21]. 1.3 Current Market Outlook - The military sector has shown positive performance since July, with many sub-sectors still at low levels, suggesting significant configuration value [22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upstream components and key materials in weapon development and production, which are expected to benefit from increased demand [22]. Appendix: Market Performance and News - The defense and military industry index rose by 1.28% but underperformed compared to the broader market indices [24]. - Key military companies have reported significant growth in their half-year earnings, with many companies showing rapid increases in net profits [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China [6]. Core Insights - Small nucleic acid drugs are expected to become the third major class of drugs after small molecules and antibodies, with unique advantages such as broad targets, strong specificity, high development efficiency, and long dosing intervals [9][38]. - The commercialization of rare diseases is maturing, and the long-term advantages for chronic diseases are becoming evident, with significant sales growth for products like Spinraza and Leqivo [9][60]. - There is a notable increase in business development (BD) activities, highlighting the potential of early-stage chronic disease pipelines [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Small Nucleic Acids: Potential as a New Drug Class - Small nucleic acid drugs, including ASO, siRNA, and Aptamer, interact with mRNA to regulate gene expression, offering a new technological pathway for drug development [13]. - The global market for small nucleic acid drugs has grown from $1.04 billion in 2017 to $5.09 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 25.5% [60]. 2. Milestones in Overseas and Domestic Markets - In the overseas market, significant developments are expected in the TTR field and cardiovascular diseases, with drugs like Vutrisiran and Pelacarsen showing promise [9]. - In China, new therapies for chronic hepatitis B and competitive advancements in cardiovascular drugs are emerging, with several companies making progress in their pipelines [9][60]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic companies involved in the development of small nucleic acid drugs targeting chronic hepatitis B and cardiovascular diseases, such as HengRui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and others [9].