核心观点 ⚫ 我们不同于市场的见解： 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 期待更优力度的政策 我们认为房地产政策的数量不重要，重要的是政策的力度。目前看来，两类政策会 有作用：一是降息、贴息类影响购房资金成本的政策；二是收储、拆迁、以及救助 负债的企业和居民主体等直接投放大量资金的政策。《求是》新年刊文，提出政策要 一次给足，这个提法与我们的观点不谋而合，有理由期待在 2026年看到更有力度的 政策组合。 ⚫ 具体事件评述： 《求是》开年刊文强调要改善和稳定房地产市场预期，建议政策要一次性给足、做 好供给管理等。我们认为这对于房地产市场止跌回稳、新旧模式转换至关重要。 开年定调"改善和稳定房地产市场预期"。文章强调房地产的金融属性、在国民经 济和居民财富中的重要地位，以及预期管理对稳定房市的关键作用。在市场已持续 较长时间量价下行的背景下，文章刊发的时间点和内容体现 2026年稳定房地产市场 预期的迫切性。 政策逻辑转型——从"渐进调控"到"精准发力、一次性到位"。文章中提出，要 积极主动作为，以更有力更精准的举措，持续改善和稳定房地产市场预期，尽可能 缩短调整时间，主要强调三点：保持政策力度、做好供给管理、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market last week saw an increase in both volume and price. Although the convertible bond valuation is already high, high - priced and over - valued convertible bonds remain strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate has broken through the previous 30% - 34% oscillation range and may experience a slow correction. In an environment with a scarcity of cost - effective convertible bonds, incremental funds can only flow to convertible bonds with strong certainty in the remaining term [5][8]. - From the current absolute price and valuation level, the future upward space for convertible bonds is limited, but incremental demand is expected to provide some support. With individual bond valuations already over - estimated across the board, it is recommended to focus on newly - issued convertible bonds and those whose redemption has been waived, as trading opportunities are greater than trend - following opportunities [5][8]. - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 16 consecutive positive days and reached 4,100 points. With the inflow of foreign capital and an increase in the proportion of equity asset allocation by domestic long - term funds, the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan. Sectors such as commercial space, AI computing power, applications, and small metals continued to be strong. There was no market pull - back as previously speculated, and the market continued to break through strongly after the New Year's Day. Historically, in the A - share market, high trading volumes do not necessarily mean a market peak, but caution should be exercised when chasing high - risk themes. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the two - end market of technology and dividends will shift towards mid - cap blue - chip stocks, including industries such as cyclical, consumer, and manufacturing sectors, and entities such as aerospace satellites, artificial intelligence, service consumption, unmanned driving, nuclear fusion, and semiconductors [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Increase in Both Volume and Price of Convertible Bonds, and Re - emergence of Valuation Pressure - The convertible bond market last week was driven up by the underlying stocks, with high - priced and over - valued convertible bonds remaining strong. The 100 - yuan premium rate broke through the previous range and may correct slowly. Incremental funds flow to convertible bonds with strong certainty in the remaining term [8]. - The upward space for convertible bonds is limited, but incremental demand provides support. Attention should be paid to newly - issued convertible bonds and those with waived redemption, as trading opportunities are greater [8]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points with high trading volume. Sectors like commercial space and AI were strong. The market is expected to move sideways with a slight upward trend, and the market style will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [8]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Leading Rise of High - priced Bonds, and New High in Valuation 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Overall Rise of Equity Indexes and Increase in Trading Volume - The equity market last week saw an increase in both volume and price, with all broad - based indexes rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.89%. The defense and military, media, and non - ferrous metals sectors led the rise, while only the banking sector declined. The average daily trading volume increased significantly from 726.158 billion yuan to 2.84 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Seli Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. The more actively traded convertible bonds included Seli Convertible Bond, Zai 22 Convertible Bond, etc. [12] 3.2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, and Better Performance of High - priced, Small - cap, and Low - rated Convertible Bonds - Last week, convertible bonds rose significantly, with the 100 - yuan premium rate breaking through the previous high and the average daily trading volume reaching 93.701 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45%, the parity center rose 4.2% to 105.1 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate remained flat at 32.3%. High - priced, small - cap, and low - rated convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated and dual - low convertible bonds performed weakly [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A series of policies at the end of 2025 promote the scale expansion of public REITs in multiple aspects, with the market entering the "infrastructure + commercial real estate" dual - drive stage. Public REITs remain a high - quality alternative in the context of a long - term decline in the bond market interest rate center and the continuation of the asset shortage logic [6][10]. - In December 2025, the public REITs market continued its downward trend, with a wider decline than in November. The factors leading to the callback are complex, including the differentiation of underlying assets, the strong performance of equity assets, and the concentrated unlocking of strategic placement shares. However, the adjustment in the past six months is regarded as a reasonable valuation callback and a return of market rationality [6][11]. - The trading heat in December was weak, with both the average daily turnover rate and trading volume decreasing month - on - month. The trading volume of large - scale transactions decreased and the discount narrowed, which may be a bottoming signal [6][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Policy持续细化和推进 - At the end of 2025, multiple regulations in the REITs field were issued, including expanding the scope of underlying assets, making the asset yield more flexible, and encouraging investment from insurance, social security, and annuity funds. The policies also promote the opening of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect channel and the construction of REITs - related index funds and ETFs [6][9][10]. 2. Secondary Market Performance: Weak Trend in December - In December, the public REITs market continued to decline, with the CSI REITs (closing) index falling 3.91%. The performance of various assets was significantly differentiated, with the equity market strengthening. The factors for the decline of REITs include the poor performance of some underlying assets, the strong performance of equity assets, and the concentrated unlocking of strategic placement shares [11]. - The rental housing and energy infrastructure sectors had relatively leading increases in December, while other sectors declined. The decline of franchise - based REITs was significantly greater than that of property - based REITs [15][16]. 3. Trading Situation: Weak Trading Heat and Narrowing Discount in December - In December, the trading heat was weak, with the average daily trading volume of 470 million yuan, a 13.76% month - on - month decrease, and the average daily turnover rate of 0.41%, a 21.15% month - on - month decrease. New infrastructure, water infrastructure, and municipal infrastructure had relatively high trading activity, and property - based REITs had slightly higher trading heat than franchise - based REITs [21]. - The large - scale trading volume in December decreased, and the discount narrowed. The monthly trading volume was 1.294 billion yuan, a 39.98% month - on - month decline, and the weighted discount premium rate was - 0.62%, indicating a narrowing discount [21]. 4. REITs Valuation - For franchise - based REITs, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation are more appropriate valuation indicators. For property - based REITs, P/NAV, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation can all be used as valuation indicators [26]. - Among franchise - based REITs, transportation infrastructure and ecological and environmental protection facilities have relatively low valuations, while municipal infrastructure and water infrastructure have relatively high valuations. Among property - based REITs, affordable rental housing and industrial park infrastructure have relatively low P/NAV [26][27]. 5. Primary Market Situation - As of December 31, 2025, there were 78 listed public REITs products in China, with a total market value of 218.463 billion yuan. One new product was added compared to the end of November, and the total market value decreased by 1.422 billion yuan [30]. - Currently, there are 16 REITs funds waiting to be listed, 2 for expansion and fundraising applications, and 1 for a new acquisition project [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating a potential return exceeding 5% relative to market benchmarks [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are rapidly evolving, with 2026 expected to mark a commercial turning point for the industry. Key developments include significant IPOs and strategic acquisitions in the AI sector, which are anticipated to drive growth in retail [8]. - The integration of AI in cross-border e-commerce and e-commerce services is emphasized, with specific companies identified as beneficiaries of this trend. The report suggests that AI tools can enhance operational efficiency across various segments of the retail industry [3][8]. Summary by Sections AI and Cross-Border E-commerce - AI is expected to create new traffic entry points for B2B platforms, transitioning from SEO to GEO. Companies like Xiaogoods City and Focus Technology are leveraging AI tools to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [3][8]. - Xiaogoods City has over 30,000 merchants utilizing AI applications, with usage exceeding 1 billion times [8]. - Focus Technology reported a membership penetration rate of over 50% for its AI services [8]. AI and E-commerce Services - The report notes that e-commerce platforms are shifting from SEO to GEO, with third-party (TP) companies gaining advantages through AI tools that analyze consumer preferences [8]. - Companies such as Qingmu Technology and Yiwang Yichuang are developing proprietary technologies to support AI applications in e-commerce operations [8]. - Qingmu Technology has created a suite of tools to adapt to evolving AI technologies, while Yiwang Yichuang is building a dedicated team to enhance its competitive edge in the market [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies does not alter the competitive advantage of China's chemical industry. The cancellation of export tax rebates for various chemical products is expected to increase export costs, reflecting China's energy and waste treatment capabilities. Despite theoretical concerns about competitiveness, high energy-consuming products like PVC lack global expansion capacity, and the price increase due to VAT will not significantly change competitive dynamics [2][7] - Market rumors do not change the profit recovery opportunities in the industry. Reports of regulatory discussions regarding monopolistic risks have led to stock price corrections for leading chemical companies. However, the industry is still in a self-rescue phase, with production cuts not aimed at achieving monopolistic profits but rather at facilitating recovery from previous losses [2][7] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended leading companies in the refining industry include Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), and Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy). The report also highlights recovery opportunities in various chemical sub-industries, such as MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) and PVC-related companies like Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), and Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated). In the phosphoric chemical sector, companies like Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) are noted for their growth potential driven by rapid energy storage growth. In the oxalic acid sector, attention is drawn to Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

国内产能、海外进口均有望收缩，板块中 长期预期改善 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20260105-20260111） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：煤炭长期基本面预期改善，关注板块配置价值。（1）尽管市场仍对煤炭行业 3-5 月的季节性淡季价格走势有一定担忧，但考虑到国内产能有望核减、进口煤数量有望 收缩，我们认为煤炭板块底部大周期的底部已基本探明，后续有望开启长周期向上的行 情；（2）同时短期来看，动力煤、焦煤价格均已止跌反弹，煤炭板块情绪有望实现向上 修复，带来短期板块止跌反弹的机会。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 11 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientse ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that investing in resource stocks is not only about bullish metal prices but also serves as a hedge against rising inflation. The recent surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, is attributed to a significant drop in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside rising inflation expectations [8][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical events, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages. The report highlights the increasing domestic supply of bauxite and alumina, which enhances the industry's resource security [14] - The precious metals sector is viewed positively as the long-term debt cycle enters its late stage, with rising physical prices reflecting a loss of trust in fiat currency systems. The report anticipates that precious metal prices will continue to reach historical highs in 2026 [15] - The copper sector faces supply chain vulnerabilities, with recent labor disputes leading to production cuts. The report suggests that the basic fundamentals support the equity side of copper investments, which are expected to rise alongside copper prices [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report indicates that the recent collective rise in metal prices is a response to inflationary pressures and a re-evaluation of physical asset values as the dollar debt cycle matures [8][13] - The aluminum sector is highlighted for its strong supply chain capabilities, with domestic production of bauxite and alumina expected to increase, providing a competitive edge [14] - The precious metals market is projected to see continued price increases, driven by a shift in investor sentiment towards physical assets as a safeguard against debt risks [15] Steel Industry - The steel industry is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the year-end off-season, with a slight increase in iron and steel production but a decrease in demand [17][22] - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [24] - Steel prices have shown a slight overall increase, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing marginal price rises [36][37] New Energy Metals - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, with December 2025 figures showing a 69.09% rise [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures for November 2025 reflecting substantial growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen sharply, indicating a robust market for new energy metals [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector, indicating that the expected settlement price for thermal power in 2026 is likely to be better than market expectations [7]. Core Insights - The long-term contract electricity price risk has materialized, and the average reduction in long-term contract electricity prices for 2026 is estimated to be around 3-4 cents per kilowatt-hour. However, the capacity price for coal-fired power is expected to increase by at least 65 yuan per kilowatt per year, which may lead to a lower-than-expected decline in thermal power settlement prices [7]. - The report highlights that the performance expectations for the utility sector have reached a low point, making low-priced utility assets worth considering for investment [7]. - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality dividend asset for long-term allocation, especially under the trend of low interest rates and policies encouraging long-term capital market entry [7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Price Dynamics - The average clearing price for the Guangdong electricity market from January 3 to January 9, 2026, was 321 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 51 yuan year-on-year (-13.7%) [10]. - The average price for Shanxi during the same period was 234 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 107 yuan year-on-year (-31.4%) [10]. Coal Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 699 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 17 yuan (+2.5%) [15]. - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 11.6% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [21]. Performance of Utility Sector - The utility sector index increased by 2.5% during the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.8% [35]. - The report notes that the gas sector within utilities showed the highest weekly increase of 4.8% [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality dividend assets in the utility sector, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, with specific stocks highlighted for potential investment [7].

AI 流量新入口带来营销渠道新机遇，把握 GEO 投资机会 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 风险提示 宏观经济影响广告主投放预算，GEO 应用落地不及预期，竞争加剧 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 11 日 看好（维持） | 项雯倩 | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李雨琪 | 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 | | | liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 金沐阳 | 执业证书编号：S0860525030001 | 021-63326320 | 沈熠 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120 ...