渝农商行 601077.SH 公司研究 | 深度报告 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2026年01月12日） | 6.51 元 | | 目标价格 | 8.29 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 7.68/5.43 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 1,135,700/1,135,158 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 73,934 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 银行 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 01 月 13 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 1.4 | 3.01 | 0.31 | 14.48 | | 相对表现% | -0.13 | -1.55 | -3.44 | -13.85 | | 沪深 300% | 1.53 | 4.56 | 3.75 | 28.33 | | 屈俊 | 执业证书编号：S0860523060001 | | --- | --- | | | qujun@orientsec.com.cn | | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the market index has reached a volatile zone, but the underlying structure remains worthy of attention, indicating a healthy rotation in technology growth and cyclical stocks like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [2][3] - The report emphasizes a strategy focused on mid-cap blue chips as a stabilizing force, with technology growth providing support, particularly in sectors like smart vehicles and robotics [2][3] Industry Strategy - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a price increase in lithium, driven by favorable tax policies and supply-demand dynamics, with lithium carbonate prices rising to $1,880 per ton, up $332 from the previous week [3] - The cobalt market is characterized by cautious purchasing strategies from downstream buyers, but tight supply conditions are supporting cobalt salt prices, indicating ongoing supply-demand negotiations [3] Thematic Strategy - The robotics sector is seeing increased catalysts, with the anticipated release of Tesla's Optimus V3 in Q1 2026 expected to boost attention on the robotics industry, alongside a significant number of domestic companies preparing for IPOs [4] - The report suggests that the domestic humanoid robot market is poised for substantial growth, with expected doubling of shipments and multiple companies likely to complete IPOs, benefiting from both domestic and international market developments [4]

Group 1 - The report maintains a bullish outlook on A-shares, commodities, and gold, indicating that the expected changes continue to favor risk assets as domestic fundamental concerns ease and risk evaluations decline [7][51] - A-share style and industry allocation focus on mid-cap blue chips, with small and micro-cap stocks potentially having a catch-up opportunity, highlighting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, defense, chemicals, and electronics [7][51] - The report emphasizes the continued strength of trends in A-shares, gold, and commodities, while noting a slight increase in medium-term uncertainty for commodities [31][51] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic events impacting asset prices include a rise in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, alleviating concerns about the domestic economic downturn [19][21] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates weak demand, with a drop in new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, suggesting that the labor market remains fragile [23][26] - Adjustments to export tax rebate policies for various products, including solar energy and battery products, are expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in industries with high energy consumption and pollution [27] Group 3 - The report highlights the significant outperformance of CTA strategies, with the highest return reaching 7.45%, while other strategy categories lagged behind [14] - A-share market sentiment has shown a short-term increase, while medium-term risks remain stable, with fluctuations in various asset classes indicating changes in trading sentiment [36][40] - The report notes that the trends in non-ferrous metals and defense industries are strong, with both short-term sentiment and medium-term uncertainty rising [34][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "resource products + military manufacturing" trend may continue, and the mid - cap growth style may be dominant in 2026 [2][75][76][82]. - The ETF market's rapid development momentum continues, with various asset varieties showing a "multi - point bloom" situation. The scale has successively exceeded 4 trillion, 5 trillion, and 6 trillion yuan [4]. - In 2026, the "mid - cap blue - chip" style is expected, and industry allocation should focus on the three main lines of "manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical" sectors [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overview - As of December 31, 2025, there were 1381 domestic ETF products, an increase of 350 compared to the end of 2024, with a cumulative scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.18 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and it successively exceeded the 4 - trillion, 5 - trillion, and 6 - trillion - yuan thresholds during the year [4][8]. 3.2 Dynamics of Various Asset - Class ETFs 3.2.1 A - share ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 826 A - share ETFs, an increase of 27 from the previous month, with a total scale of 28381.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 943.82 billion yuan from the previous month. Currently, 7 products have a scale of over 100 billion yuan [10]. - The CSI A500 products have high capital activity, and satellite - related ETFs have top - performing results. Multiple A500 funds have high average daily trading volumes, and satellite - related ETFs have an average monthly increase of over 40% [13]. 3.2.2 Cross - border ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 247 cross - border ETFs, an increase of 6 from the previous month, with a total scale of 9630.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.04 billion yuan from the previous month. Gold - related ETFs are relatively active, with some gold - stock ETFs having a nearly 8% increase in the past month [16][19]. 3.2.3 Bond ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 53 bond ETFs, the same as the previous month, with a current total scale of 8290 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1117 billion yuan from the previous month. Short - term financing ETFs and benchmark treasury bond ETFs are actively traded, and convertible bond - related ETFs have top - performing results recently [22]. 3.2.4 Commodity ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 17 commodity ETFs, the same as the previous month, with a current total scale of 2505 billion yuan, an increase of 90 billion yuan from the previous month. In addition to gold - related ETFs, the Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF has a significant increase in price and volume, rising over 10% in the past month [27]. 3.3 Manager Landscape - The rankings of top managers remain basically stable. Huaxia Fund and E Fund still rank among the top two in non - monetary ETF management scale. In terms of broad - based ETFs, Huaxia Fund ranks first, with a management scale of 6423 billion yuan; in terms of industry ETFs, Huaxia Fund and E Fund rank first and second, with management scales of 2272 billion yuan and 2114 billion yuan respectively [33]. - The concentration of top managers has declined again. As of December 31, 2025, the scale concentration of the top 10 managers decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 76.76% [4][36]. 3.4 Capital Flow Changes - In terms of major asset classes, bond and A - share ETFs have received significant capital allocation, while money - market products have been under - allocated. In December, the capital flowing into the ETF market totaled 286 billion yuan, with bond and A - share products having the largest inflows, totaling 216.9 billion yuan, and cross - border products also having an inflow of 70.7 billion yuan. There was an outflow of 7 billion yuan from money - market products [39]. - In terms of sub - sectors, capital has significantly increased the allocation of CSI A500, cross - border technology, science and technology innovation bonds, and gold products. Among A - share products, broad - based products have a large inflow of 102.7 billion yuan, mainly due to the 98 - billion - yuan inflow of CSI A500 products, while industry products have an obvious outflow of 29.2 billion yuan [42]. 3.5 Product Declaration Dynamics - In December 2025, the market received 66 declared products, a decrease of 9 from the previous month but still at a high level in recent years. The declared products in December are diversified, covering areas such as batteries, home appliances, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, ChiNext 50, satellites, engineering machinery, animal husbandry and aquaculture, robots, and free cash flow [46]. 3.6 ETF Holder Structure Analysis 3.6.1 Changes in the Proportion of Individual/Institutional Investors - Overall, the proportion of institutional investors' holdings has been rising in the past two years and currently accounts for about 65%. As of June 30, 2025, institutional investors held 1.78 trillion shares, a year - on - year increase of 38.9%, and the proportion of their holdings increased by 4.7 percentage points from the previous period [53]. 3.6.2 Holdings Preference Characteristics of Various Institutional Investors - State - owned funds: The proportion of holdings in broad - based ETFs remains high, accounting for about 98%. The allocation proportion of the CSI 1000 and CSI A500 sectors has increased [65]. - Brokerages: Broad - based products still account for the majority, and the proportion of holdings in industry products has increased. As of mid - 2025, the proportion of industry products increased to 20.5%, a 2.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, while broad - based products accounted for 69.6% [69]. - Insurance funds: The proportion of allocation to industry ETFs has significantly increased, and it is roughly the same as that of broad - based ETFs. As of mid - 2025, the proportion of industry ETFs increased to 44%, a 9.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and broad - based ETFs accounted for 41.7% [72]. 3.7 ETF Monthly Investment Strategy 3.7.1 Rotation Strategy Based on Industry and Style Sentiment and ETF Implementation - Industry perspective: The "resource products + military manufacturing" sector may continue to develop. In January 2026, the model recommends focusing on the communication, non - ferrous metals, power equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, and coal industries [75][82]. - Style perspective: The mid - cap growth style may be dominant in January 2026, with its sentiment possibly in an expansion state and relatively good market performance [76][86]. 3.7.2 ETF Selection Based on Subjective Strategy Analysis - The market is expected to revolve around "mid - cap blue - chips." In terms of industries, the three main lines of manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors are worthy of attention [76]. 3.7.3 ETF Asset Pool for Reference in January - The table provides a reference for corresponding ETF products based on the conclusions of the industry sentiment rotation strategy and subjective strategy analysis, covering mid - cap broad - based, strategy - based, technology manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [93][95].

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 退税政策催化，锂价再上涨 ——钴锂金属行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 1 月仍看好碳酸锂价格上涨，中期需注意动力与储能端由于需求转淡带来的价格回踩压 力，但 2026 年锂价整体中枢上移的趋势不改。钴市在 2026 年 4 月大批量原料到港前， 受限于现货结构性紧缺与成本倒挂支撑，价格重心仍有上行空间。 风险提示 新能源汽车增速不及预期，储能装机增速不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 看好（维持） | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宁紫微 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120005 | | | ningziwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 流动性预期强化，扩散行情延续：有色及 贵金属周报 2026-01-11 对标 2010 年，稀土板块有望迎来盈利估值 双击：——两用物项对日本出口管制政 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 就业增长强度过低，失业率难以维持稳 定，降息预期仍将修复 ——2025 年 12 月就业数据点评 研究结论 就业数据持续产生预期差的风险。 美国经济陷入衰退的风险。 通胀超预期上行的风险。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 12 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 委内瑞拉事件对美国"例外溢价"或短多 | 2026-01-06 | | --- | --- | | 长空：——海外札记 20260105 | | | 美元周期还在探底，人民币升值 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time, with a target price of 42.63 CNY based on a valuation of 21 times earnings for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional home appliance manufacturer to a more diversified entity, leveraging its core competencies in refined management and strategic acquisitions [8][9]. - The company has completed the transfer of its overseas production capacity, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in the near future [8]. - The acquisition of Shanghai Pajie has enhanced the company's profitability in the automotive parts sector, with a strong order backlog [8][67]. - The PCBA business, acquired through the purchase of Lihua Technology, has broad downstream applications and is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.47 CNY, 2.03 CNY, and 2.37 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 100.2 billion CNY in 2025 to 121.3 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 8.4 billion CNY in 2025, increasing to 13.6 billion CNY by 2027 [11]. Business Overview - The company has diversified its operations into four main business segments: home appliances, automotive parts, electric motors, and PCBA manufacturing [10]. - The home appliance segment has seen a gradual decline in its revenue contribution, from 80% in 2019 to 58% in 2023, as the automotive and PCBA segments grow [29]. - The company maintains a strong focus on overseas markets, with approximately 70% of its revenue coming from exports [29]. Operational Performance - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth, with a CAGR of 11.36% from 2019 to 2024, and net profit growth at a CAGR of 19.62% during the same period [36]. - The gross margin has remained stable, fluctuating between 20% and 30%, with recent strategic adjustments leading to an upward trend in profitability [39]. - The return on equity (ROE) is consistently high, projected to be between 25% and 30% from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong financial health compared to industry peers [42].

Report Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The core issue in the bond market lies in demand rather than supply. In early 2026, the bond market continued to adjust. Although there was a high - volume supply of government bonds and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms, the rapid post - New Year loosening of the capital market and the "bear - steep" adjustment of the curve indicated that supply was not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure offset the impact of the change in local bond issuance terms [6][13]. - The root cause is the active contraction of bond investment by institutions. Since 2025, banks have been actively reducing bond investment, similar to the situation in 2016 - 2017, but the current reason is the low interest rate, which makes the return unable to cover the cost. Fund and fixed - income asset management products have been continuously redeemed, leading to large - scale bond sales [6][23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, three aspects can be considered: reigniting the market's expectation of a significant interest rate decline, the central bank taking further steps in directly purchasing long - term bonds, and increasing the necessity of strongly stimulating the economy to promote banks' rapid re - expansion of their balance sheets and spill - over into bond investment [6]. - In the short term, the overall demand problem in the bond market is difficult to solve. It is advisable to focus on structural demand changes, especially in wealth management products. Wealth management products may gradually shift to slightly longer - duration products for returns. Attention can be paid to the riding value of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, 1 - 2Y industrial bonds, and appropriate credit picking of high - quality urban and rural commercial banks for sub - perpetual bonds within 3Y, and trading opportunities for 3 - 4Y sub - perpetual bonds [6][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some believe the bond market adjustment in 2026 is due to supply expansion, with the first - week government bond net issuance reaching a new high and a lengthening trend in local bond issuance terms [6][10]. - However, the core problem is on the demand side. The post - New Year capital loosening and "bear - steep" curve adjustment show that supply is not the core contradiction. Also, the insurance sector's adjustment of its local bond allocation term structure has kept the spread between local and national bonds stable [13][15]. - Institutions are actively reducing bond investment. Since 2025, banks' bond investment contraction is similar to that in 2016 - 2017, but currently due to low interest rates. Fund and fixed - income asset management products are being redeemed, leading to bond sales [23]. - To solve the demand - side problem, consider reigniting interest rate decline expectations, central bank action on long - bond purchases, and economic stimulus [23]. - In the short term, focus on wealth management products. They may shift to longer - duration products for returns, and attention can be paid to specific bond types [27]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market - **Release of December Financial Data**: This week, China will release December financial data, and the US will release December CPI and other data [30]. - **Interest - Rate Bond Issuance**: The expected issuance volume of interest - rate bonds this week is around 427.2 billion yuan, including 207 billion yuan of national bonds, 70.2 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy - bank financial bonds, which is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years [30][31]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal**: Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 165.5 billion yuan. After the New Year, the reverse repurchase maturity volume was high, and the capital market had a seasonal volume increase and price increase, with the increase in price being controllable [34][35]. - **Interest - Rate Adjustment at the Beginning of the Year**: The new fund fee regulations before New Year's Day were beneficial to bond - fund liabilities, but the market quickly took profits after the interest - rate decline. Concerns about government bond supply and the strong start of the equity market suppressed bond - market sentiment. Finally, the yields of most interest - rate bonds increased, with only the 1 - year national bond yield falling by 4.9bp, and the 3 - year national bond yield rising the most, by about 7.8bp [49]. 4. High - Frequency Data - **Production Side**: There was a divergence in operating rates. The blast - furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. In late December, the daily average crude - steel output had a wider year - on - year decline of 14.8% [52]. - **Demand Side**: The year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales improved rapidly. In the week of December 31, the year - on - year growth of passenger - car wholesale and retail sales were 45% and 17% respectively. The year - on - year decline in the commercial - housing transaction area narrowed. In the week of January 4, the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area had a seasonal decline and a large year - on - year decline. The commercial - housing sales area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 2.75 million square meters, with a narrowed year - on - year decline of 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 0.5% and 4.2% respectively [52]. - **Price Side**: Crude - oil prices recovered, copper and aluminum prices increased, coal prices diverged, the mid - stream building - material composite price index increased slightly, and downstream vegetable and fruit prices decreased while pork prices increased. The rebar inventory decreased to a low level of 283 tons, and the futures price increased by 0.6% [53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of CNY 204 billion, CNY 225 billion, and CNY 259 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The valuation for 2026 is set at 18x PE, leading to a target price of HKD 103.20 per share [3][10]. - The launch of the KOL 2.6 action control feature has significantly increased the company's influence in overseas markets, with notable download spikes in countries like South Korea and India [9]. - The company anticipates a steady revenue growth of 9% in 2026, reaching CNY 154.9 billion, with advertising and other business segments expected to grow by 10% and 21%, respectively [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue (CNY million): 113,470 (2023), 126,898 (2024), 142,053 (2025), 154,873 (2026), 167,518 (2027) [4]. - Adjusted Net Profit (CNY million): 6,396 (2023), 15,335 (2024), 18,287 (2025), 21,457 (2026), 24,770 (2027) [4]. - Earnings per Share (CNY): 1.48 (2023), 3.56 (2024), 4.26 (2025), 5.00 (2026), 5.77 (2027) [4]. - Gross Margin (%): 50.6% (2023), 54.6% (2024), 55.1% (2025), 56.3% (2026), 56.8% (2027) [4].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a continued focus on short-term credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of 3 years or less, due to a stable funding environment and potential for interest rate arbitrage [6][9] - It suggests exploring opportunities in municipal bonds with maturities of 2-3 years and industrial bonds with maturities of 1-2 years, while advising caution on longer-term bonds due to increased uncertainty [6][9] - The report notes that the recent regulatory changes regarding bond fund fees have had limited positive impact, and thus, short-term bonds remain a more prudent investment choice [6][9] Group 2 - The credit bond market has seen a recovery in issuance levels, with a total of 269.9 billion yuan issued from January 5 to January 11, 2026, marking a significant net inflow of 131.1 billion yuan, the highest weekly net inflow since December of the previous year [14] - The average issuance costs for AAA and AA+ rated bonds have increased, with average coupon rates rising by 16 basis points and 7 basis points respectively [14][15] - Secondary market activity showed a slight increase in turnover rates, with credit spreads generally narrowing, although long-term bonds faced more pressure [14][19] Group 3 - The report indicates that credit spreads for various bond ratings have generally widened, with 5Y-1Y spreads increasing by 2-3 basis points, while AA rated bonds saw a slight narrowing of 2 basis points [20][22] - Municipal bond credit spreads have shown a slight contraction, averaging a reduction of about 3 basis points across provinces, with Tibet experiencing the largest decrease of 5 basis points [22] - Most industry credit spreads also contracted by 2-4 basis points, indicating a generally favorable trend in the credit market [22]