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海信视像(600060):618可圈可点,世俱杯赋能中期成长
Orient Securities· 2025-06-24 03:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, achieving a market share of 24% in sales volume and 29% in sales revenue, solidifying its leading position in the Chinese television market [10]. - The FIFA World Cup is expected to enhance mid-term growth through "technical cooperation and scene ecology," which will boost brand recognition and sales in both mature and emerging markets [10]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.95, 2.23, and 2.53 yuan respectively, with a target price of 29.25 yuan based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][11]. - Projected revenue for 2025 is 64.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.54 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year increase [5]. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue growth rates are projected at 17.2% for 2023, 9.2% for 2024, and 9.9% for 2025 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 15.9% in 2025, with a net margin of 4.0% [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2025 [5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company leads in high-end technology, with a 30% sales volume and 32% sales revenue market share in MiniLED televisions [10]. - The company has a 42% sales volume and 49.6% sales revenue share in the 100-inch large screen market, reinforcing its competitive edge [10].
特斯拉Robotaxi服务正式上线,建议关注产业链相关公司
Orient Securities· 2025-06-24 01:13
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service is expected to enhance the sales of existing models and the upcoming Cybercab, with a fixed fare of $4.2 per ride during the initial phase [9] - Strong players in the autonomous driving and vehicle manufacturing sectors are anticipated to capture market share in the Robotaxi market, with companies like Baidu, WeRide, and Pony.ai leading in operations [3][9] - The commercialization of Robotaxi services is accelerating in China, with various companies planning to expand their fleets and services significantly by 2025 [9] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks in the T-chain benefiting from Robotaxi developments include: - Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179, Buy) - Yinlun Machinery (002126, Buy) - Top Group (601689, Buy) - Aikodi (600933, Buy) - Rongtai Co., Ltd. (605133, Buy) - Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving vehicle stocks include: - SAIC Motor (600104, Buy) - JAC Motors (600418, Not Rated) - XPeng Motors (09868, Not Rated) - Li Auto (02015, Not Rated) - Geely Automobile (00175, Buy) [4] - Recommended smart driving chain stocks include: - Jingwei Hirain Technologies (688326, Buy) - Bertel (603596, Buy) - Desay SV (002920, Buy) - Huayang Group (002906, Buy) [4]
债市“抢跑”行情或将延续
Orient Securities· 2025-06-23 13:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "front - running" market in the bond market is expected to continue around the quarter - end, and the interest rate downward process is not over yet. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the interest rate adjustment risk after the market reaches unanimous optimism, so it is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Viewpoint: The "Front - Running" Market in the Bond Market May Continue - Previously, the report continuously suggested bond - buying opportunities. The main logic was that institutional concerns about the capital market gradually subsided, and the market shifted from divergence to unanimous optimism. Last week, this process continued, manifested in the compression of spreads, including traditional term spreads and credit spreads, and the market started to seek returns from the convex points of the curve [4][7]. - The "front - running" market was triggered by the stable capital market during the tax period and quarter - end. It is expected to continue for some time due to factors such as the seasonal expansion of fixed - income asset management products in July, the potential spread of optimistic sentiment from banks and insurance to funds, the seasonal decline of capital interest rates after the quarter - end, and the potential positive feedback of interest rate decline [4][12]. - The "front - running" market can continue around the quarter - end, but one should be cautious about interest rate adjustment risks when the market becomes unanimously optimistic. It is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. - Last week, the bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Despite some unmet expectations, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fixed - Income Market Outlook: Intensive Release of Overseas Economic Data 3.2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the May core PCE and the June University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Other important data and events include the eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's June IFO business climate index, etc. [21][22]. 3.2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply Scale of Interest - Rate Bonds - This week, it is estimated that 846.6 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds will be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a total scale of about 110 billion yuan, including a 91 - day discount treasury bond and a 30 - year special treasury bond worth 71 billion yuan. Local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 585.7 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 150 billion yuan [22]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: Yields Fluctuated Downward 3.3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Situation - The central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal. The reverse - repurchase injection scale reached 960.3 billion yuan, with a small net injection, but considering the MLF maturity, the open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Capital interest rates were relatively stable. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase continued to rise, and the overnight proportion averaged around 89.7%. Capital interest rates showed differentiation. The secondary yields of medium - and long - term certificates of deposit continued to decline [28][29][34]. 3.3.2 The Capital Market Continued to Favor the Bond Market - The bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Although some expectations were not met, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week, with the 1 - year treasury bond having the largest decline [46]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates were differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and PTA operating rate decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude steel output in early June remained negative [53]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales increased. The year - on - year growth rates of the 30 - large - city commercial housing sales area increased by about 5.9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 10.5% and 8% respectively [53]. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were differentiated. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index decreased slightly, the cement index decreased, and the glass index increased. The output of rebar increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly to 3.69 million tons, and the futures price increased by 1.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 1.2%, - 3.7%, and 0.3% respectively [54].
以色列伊朗冲突加剧油气化工价格波动
Orient Securities· 2025-06-23 13:34
价格价差变化: 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期;需求不及预期;海外市场供需情况变化;油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好(维持) | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860517120003 | | 万里扬 | 021-63325888*2504 | | | wanliyang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860519090003 | | 农药行业爆炸事故引发交易性行情,看好 | 2025-06-15 | | --- | --- | | 差异化龙头的成长逻辑 | | | 本周宏观预期修复,大宗品表现较强 | 2025-06-08 | | 本周油价小幅下跌,农药关注度较高 | 2025-06-03 | 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 以色列伊朗冲突加剧油气化工价格波动 核心观点 有关分析师的申明,见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分,或请 ...
有色钢铁行业周观点(2025年第25周):从战略与策略角度看稀土板块的配置价值-20250623
Orient Securities· 2025-06-23 12:01
有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 从战略与策略角度看稀土板块的配置价值 ——有色钢铁行业周观点(2025 年第 25 周) 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓;美国通胀增速放缓;原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好(维持) 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号:S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照:BTB487 | 重视稀土产业链的供给侧逻辑:——有色 | 2025-06-08 | | --- | --- | | 钢铁行业周观点(2025 年第 23 周) | | | 美债危机叠加关税冲击,关注黄金板块的 | 2025-06-03 | | 投 资 机 会 : — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | (2025 年第 22 周) | | | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | 会:——有色钢铁行业周观点(2025 年第 | | | 20 周) | | 有关分析师的申明,见本报告最后部 ...
超长信用债行情能持续多久
Orient Securities· 2025-06-23 05:45
固定收益 | 动态跟踪 超长信用债行情能持续多久 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期;货币政策变化超预期;经济基本面变化超预期;信用风险暴露超预 期;数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号:S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860523080003 | | 临近季末关注机构行为冲击:固定收益市 | 2025-06-16 | | --- | --- | | 场周观察 | | | 债市增量资金来自哪里:固定收益市场周 | 2025-06-16 | | 观察 | | | 继续以挖掘票息为先:固定收益市场周观 | 2025-06-09 | | 察 | | 有关分析师的申明,见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分,或 ...
美拟收紧半导体技术豁免,利好本土产业链
Orient Securities· 2025-06-23 01:35
核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 美商务部拟取消在中国运营的芯片制造商的技术豁免权,或将削弱海外公司利用中国大 陆资源的优势,改变存储全球供应链格局,建议关注国内半导体产业链: 风险提示 电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 美拟收紧半导体技术豁免,利好本土产业 链 ⚫ 国际政治经济形势变动风险;半导体景气度不及预期;半导体国产化进度不及预 期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 23 日 看好(维持) | 薛宏伟 | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号:S0860524110001 | | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照:BPT856 | | 韩潇锐 | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860523080004 | 朱茜 zhuqian@orientsec.com.cn | 部分存储涨价,AI ...
豪华车行业系列报告:产品力及品牌价值双升,自主豪车将实现品牌向上
Orient Securities· 2025-06-22 13:46
投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看,随着消费者民族自信心的提升、对自主豪华车品牌的认同度提升及自 主品牌自身产品力的提升,预计自主品牌豪华车市场份额将逐步提高,自主品牌将实现 高端化突破。建议关注:江淮汽车、比亚迪。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车行业需求、车企价格战压力、自主品牌豪华车销量不及预期。 产品力及品牌价值双升,自主豪车将实现 品牌向上 ——豪华车行业系列报告 核心观点 目 录 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 22 日 中性(维持) | 姜雪晴 | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号:S0860512060001 | | 袁俊轩 | yuanjunxuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860523070005 | | | | | 尊界 S800 上市 48 小时大定超 2100 辆, | 2025-06-02 | | --- | --- | | 继续关注华为链相关公司:——汽车行业 | | | 周 ...
AI眼镜从“时尚单品”到“垂类场景专业工具”,应用拓宽定位升级
Orient Securities· 2025-06-22 13:45
2)SoC 端:国产 SoC 供应商恒玄科技(688608,买入)、晶晨股份(688099,买入) 等; 3)零组件端:摄像头模造玻璃供应商宇瞳光学(300790,未评级)、麦克风及扬声器 供应商瑞声科技(02018,未评级),SiP 模组供应商环旭电子(601231,买入); 电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 AI 眼镜从"时尚单品"到"垂类场景专业 工具",应用拓宽定位升级 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ AI 眼镜快速渗透,正逐步从"时尚单品"到"专业垂类细分场景必要性工具"演 进,长期加入显示功能后有望突破手机附属可穿戴品类天花板,成为下一代独立 AI 端侧智能终端品类,建议关注深度参与国内外头部品牌供应链的各环节龙头,建议 关注: 1)整机及 PCBA 厂商平台型龙头厂商,歌尔股份(002241,买入)、龙旗科技 (603341,未评级)、蓝思科技(300433,买入)、立讯精密(002475,买入)、华勤技 术(603296,买入)等; 4)光波导相关厂商蓝特光学(688127,买入)、水晶光电(002273,买入)、舜宇光学 科技(02382,买入)。 风险提示 ⚫ AI 眼镜进展不及预期;下 ...
地缘波折,难阻中国科技突围
Orient Securities· 2025-06-22 12:15
当霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势与美联储持续鹰派的政策立场形成共振,上周全球资本 市场经历了一场压力测试。令人瞩目的是,市场展现出超乎预期的韧性:亚洲主要 市场指数普遍上扬,其中韩国、印度和日本市场涨幅领先,分别上涨 4.4%、1.59% 和 1.50%。相较之下,中国市场本周表现略显逊色,主要指数出现调整,我们认 为,可能源于其自身运行节奏的影响:上证指数在未能有效突破 3400 点附近的关键 阻力区间后,技术上面临回踩需求,本周微跌 0.51%。同时,小盘股前期积累的上 涨动能也显露转弱迹象,中证 1000 指数下跌 1.74%,北证 50 指数下跌 2.55%,需 对该结构性风险保持警惕。 投资策略 | 定期报告 地缘波折,难阻中国科技突围 策略周报 20250622 研究结论 ⚫ 全球资本市场韧性超预期,但仍需防范风险 支撑全球市场韧性的核心逻辑在于:投资者倾向于相信中东地缘危机短期内不会失 控升级。伊朗的报复行动虽引发波动,但均未实质性突破"红线",大国直接军事 介入的风险暂时预期保持中性。OPEC+充足的闲置产能、伊朗原油出口的暂时维持 以及全球能源转型的长期趋势,共同削弱了油价飙升的持续性预期。然而,这 ...