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2026游戏行业趋势展望:从to B到to C,AI游戏引擎开始助力平台增长
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 05:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gaming industry [5] Core Insights - The application of AI in the gaming industry is transitioning from B2B to B2C, with expectations for sustained capacity and traffic growth for evergreen games on the B2B side, while B2C games with high daily active users (DAU) are expected to see significant increases in both content and DAU through user co-creation driven by natural language AI game engines [3][12] - The report highlights the importance of companies with advantages in gaming channels and large DAU products, such as Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and NetEase, as well as those with key project reserves like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. AIGC and Policy Resonance Driving High Growth in Gaming Revenue - In 2025, China's gaming industry sales revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion, with an 8% year-on-year growth, significantly outperforming the retail sector's 3.7% growth [15] - The AI-driven evergreen games are extending their lifecycle, with major titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire" achieving historical highs during the Spring Festival [15] 2. Trends in the Gaming Industry for 2026 - AI game editors are beginning to deliver results, with a long-term positive outlook for platform-based companies [29] - A price war is expected to restart in 2026, with low ARPU games showing stronger resilience against macroeconomic headwinds [38] - The revival of PC games is deepening, with an increasing proportion of cross-platform products [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with advantages in channels and large DAU products are highlighted, including Tencent Holdings, which is expected to see significant growth from its AI engine-driven games [60][61] - Other companies to watch include Xindong Company, Giant Network, and Kyeing Network, each with promising projects and growth potential [60][61]
替尔泊肽加冕,减重热潮未平
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 05:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in China, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [5]. Core Insights - Tirzepatide has been crowned the "King of Drugs," with annual sales reaching $36.507 billion in 2025, representing a 122% increase. It is expected to maintain its leading position for several years. Other notable drugs include Pembrolizumab with $31.7 billion in sales (+7%) and Semaglutide with approximately $34.606 billion (+18%) [9]. - The weight loss market is becoming a strategic focus for multinational corporations (MNCs), with significant investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) occurring in this sector. Major players are prioritizing weight loss in their strategies, with various drugs expected to enter clinical trials and receive approvals in 2026 [9]. - The demand for weight loss solutions is driving ongoing business development (BD) activities, with recent agreements indicating a robust pipeline for future innovations in this area [9]. - The commercial value of weight loss drugs is anticipated to be rapidly released, with MNCs viewing this sector as a core strategic area, leading to continued BD opportunities in oral small molecules, long-acting GLP-1s, and small nucleic acids [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include: - Genscript Biotech Corporation (01672, Buy) - Hengrui Medicine (600276, Buy) - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317, Buy) - Yuyuan Pharmaceutical (688658, Buy) - Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group (01093, Not Rated) - Sunshine Novo Nordisk (688621, Buy) [9].
2026游戏行业趋势展望:从toB到toC,AI游戏引擎开始助力平台增长
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 04:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gaming industry [5] Core Insights - The application of AI in the gaming industry is transitioning from B2B to B2C, with expectations for sustained capacity and traffic growth for evergreen games on the B2B side, and significant content and DAU growth for large DAU games utilizing natural language AI game engines on the B2C side [3][12] - The report highlights the importance of companies with advantages in gaming channels and large DAU products, such as Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and NetEase [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with key project reserves this year, including 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. AIGC and Policy Resonance Driving High Growth in Gaming Industry Revenue - In 2025, China's gaming industry sales revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion, with an 8% year-on-year growth, significantly outperforming the retail sales growth of 3.7% [15] - The AI-driven evergreen games are experiencing extended lifecycles, with historical highs achieved during the 2025 Q1 Spring Festival [15] 2. Trends in the Gaming Industry for 2026 - Trend 1: AI game editors are beginning to deliver results, with a long-term positive outlook for platform-based companies [29] - Trend 2: A price war is expected to restart in 2026, with low ARPU games showing stronger resilience against macroeconomic headwinds [38] - Trend 3: The revival of PC games is deepening, with an increasing share of cross-platform products [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with advantages in channels and large DAU products include Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Giant Network, and NetEase [12][60] - Companies with key project reserves to watch include 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [12][60]
PPI上行周期,中高端卡位机会显现
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 02:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [5]. Core Insights - The PPI (Producer Price Index) upcycle presents opportunities for mid-to-high-end positioning, with leading companies demonstrating stronger pricing power and higher profit certainty [2][3]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. Leading companies exhibit higher operational efficiency and stability during cost upcycles, making them preferred choices for stable allocations. Recommended stocks include Haier Smart Home (600690, not rated) and Hisense Visual (600060, increase holding) [3]. 2. International expansion remains a long-term theme, with potential valuation shifts expected by 2026. Recommended stocks include Stone Technology (688169, buy) and Lek Electric (603355, buy) [3]. Summary by Sections - **PPI Upcycle and Pricing Dynamics**: The report notes that from July 1, 2025, to January 30, 2026, LME copper prices increased by 32%, prompting home appliance brands to raise prices. For instance, Hisense announced a price increase of 5%-10% for its air conditioning products starting February 11, 2026, while Midea announced a cumulative price increase exceeding 6% [7]. - **Sales Impact and Market Concentration**: Price increases have not significantly affected overall sales volumes but have contributed to market concentration. Historical data shows that after previous raw material price hikes, leading companies have successfully increased their market share, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments [7]. - **Mid-to-High-End Market Opportunities**: The report emphasizes that the PPI upcycle is a positive signal for industrial enterprises and economic stabilization. It highlights opportunities in mid-to-high-end segments, where consumer price sensitivity is lower, allowing for better price transmission during commodity upcycles [7].
开启“投资于人”新一环——房地产新动向的信号意义
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 02:24
宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 开启"投资于人"新一环——房地产新动 向的信号意义 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 产业转型过程中,大城市劳动密集型行业占比减少,技术密集型行业占比增加,可 能会制约劳动者的增加以及地产需求的扩大。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号:S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照:BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号:S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号:S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号:S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 刘姜枫 ...
房地产新动向的信号意义:开启“投资于人”新一环
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 01:46
宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 开启"投资于人"新一环——房地产新动 向的信号意义 研究结论 风险提示 每位负责撰写本研究报告全部或部分内容的研究分析师在此作以下声明: ⚫ 产业转型过程中,大城市劳动密集型行业占比减少,技术密集型行业占比增加,可 能会制约劳动者的增加以及地产需求的扩大。 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号:S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照:BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号:S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号:S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号:S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.c ...
快手-W:可灵3.0有望进一步推进技术前沿-20260205
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 00:24
可灵 3.0 有望进一步推进技术前沿 买入(维持) 核心观点 快手-W 01024.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点:1 月初可灵海外出圈后,整个 1 月看收入和 DAU 端都保持相对高位,热度持 续性表现好。目前数据意义在于整体稳在更高水位后,从 1 月初主要在低 ARPU 地区流 量扩圈(如东南亚、中亚等)→高付费能力地区收入震荡爬升,预期后者对可灵 ARR 提升作用更大。此外新一代可灵 3.0 版本内测中,统一架构下工作流衔接性更好,且区 别于竞品的迭代在于原生文本输出,预计进一步推进技术前沿水平。产品层面更侧重于 专业创作各环节提效,若年前能全量使用,有望延续 1 月产品热度,带动需求释放。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年经调整归母净利润为 204/225/259 亿元。维持此前给予公司 26 年 18xPE 估值,对应合理价值为 4,048 亿 CNY,折合 4,542 亿 HKD(港币兑人 民币汇率 0.891),目标价 104.36 港元/股,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 宏观消费恢复不及预期,国内商业化效率不及预期,海外业务亏损加大,可 灵技术迭代不及预期 公司主要 ...
电子行业动态跟踪:供需格局向好,大尺寸面板涨价有望持续
Orient Securities· 2026-02-05 00:24
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand relationship is improving, and price increases for large-sized panels are expected to continue [3][7] - Major panel manufacturers are pushing for production control, which is likely to sustain price increases for large-sized panels [7] - The overall demand for television panels remains stable, supported by upcoming events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is expected to drive stocking demand [7] - Capital expenditures for leading panel manufacturers are anticipated to significantly decrease as the large-scale capital expenditure cycle has passed [7] - Short-term price pressure on mobile OLED panels is expected to be manageable, with a slight decline in global smartphone AMOLED panel shipments projected for 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests that the supply-demand relationship is favorable, and price increases for large-sized panels are likely to continue. Recommended stocks include: - Panel manufacturers: TCL Technology, BOE A, Shenzhen Tianma A, Rainbow Technology, Visionox, and Huahui Optoelectronics [3][8] - Panel materials manufacturers: Ruiv Optical, Qingyi Optical, Lite Optical, Woge Optical, Sanlipu, and Shenzhen Textile A [3][8] - Display driver chip manufacturers: Tiande Yu [3][8] - Panel module manufacturers: BOE Precision [3][8]
资产配置月报202602:风险偏好主导资产表现,权益关注风格切换-20260204
Orient Securities· 2026-02-04 15:21
资产配置 | 动态跟踪 风险偏好主导资产表现,权益关注风格切 换 ——资产配置月报 202602 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号:S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号:S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 提 名 沃 什 不 改 美 元 信 用 弱 化 格 局 : | 2026-02-03 | | --- | --- | | 20260202 多资产配置周报 | | | 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹:20260126A 股 | 2026-01-28 | | 风格及行业配置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 配置关注权益商品,行业聚焦中盘蓝筹: | 2026-01-04 | | ——资产配置月报 202601 | | 有关分析师的申 ...
吉利汽车动态跟踪 —— 出口大幅增长,极氪销量持续向上
Orient Securities· 2026-02-04 13:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Insights - Geely's sales performance in January slightly exceeded industry expectations, with total sales of 270,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [9] - The company's export sales saw significant growth, with January exports reaching 60,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 121.2% [9] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 23.37 HKD [3][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are as follows: 179.204 billion, 240.194 billion, 319.444 billion, 387.363 billion, and 448.685 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][10] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3.806 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.173 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027 [10][11] - The report indicates a significant increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company, with a forecast of 5.308 billion yuan in 2023, rising to 24.318 billion yuan by 2027 [5][10]