Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Views 2024 Industry Review - Weak domestic demand was the dominant factor affecting the performance of domestic brands, leading to pressure on the earnings of listed companies, including low-valuation/high-dividend theme leaders [2] - The rapid rise in gold prices significantly weakened the prosperity of the gold and jewelry industry, with Laopu Gold being one of the few companies in the sector to achieve growth against the trend [2] - The export manufacturing sector regained growth momentum in 2024 as overseas brands completed their inventory destocking cycle, with Vietnam's export data and the growth rates of Taiwanese footwear and apparel companies showing significant improvement [2] 2025 Investment Strategy for Domestic Brands - The recovery elasticity of domestic consumption is expected, driven by policy support, with a focus on the breadth and intensity of policy measures [2] - The report is optimistic about the certainty and continuity of future consumption stimulus policies, with a potential valuation recovery in the sector if policies are implemented as expected [2] - Small-cap stocks performed better after September 2024, but the report predicts that leading brands with solid fundamentals will show better stock price elasticity as domestic demand gradually recovers, likely around mid-2025 [2] 2025 Investment Strategy for Export Manufacturing - The report is optimistic about the resilience of leading companies and advises paying attention to U.S. tariff policies [2] - Historical data shows that leading companies did not experience a significant decline in their export share to the U.S./Americas during Trump's first term, and domestic companies accelerated the relocation of their supply chains to Southeast Asia to avoid tariff impacts [2] - The report expects that the market sentiment may be affected in the short term if Trump's tariff policies are implemented in 2025, but the impact is likely to be smaller than the previous round [2] Investment Recommendations and Targets Domestic Brands - Four key areas are recommended: 1) sectors directly benefiting from policy support, such as home textiles and multi-child concept beneficiaries; 2) outdoor and functional sportswear as a medium-to-long-term allocation; 3) medical aesthetics/cosmetics as an offensive sector; 4) low-valuation, high-dividend themes [3] - Specific companies recommended include Luolai Lifestyle, Fuanna, Mercury Home Textile, Semir, Anta Sports, Li Ning, Bosideng, and others [3] Export Manufacturing - The report recommends leading companies with high overseas production capacity, strong global competitiveness in niche markets, and clear capacity expansion plans, such as Shenzhou International, Weixing Shares, and Huali Group [3] Industry Performance and Trends Domestic Brands - Weak demand in 2024 significantly impacted the overall performance of listed companies, with the performance of low-valuation/high-dividend theme leaders also under pressure [25] - The rapid rise in gold prices in 2024, with a 29% increase year-to-date, negatively affected the gold and jewelry industry, leading to a decline in same-store sales for major players like Chow Tai Fook [44] - Industry valuations showed a turning point in September 2024, driven by policy expectations, with valuations for the textile and apparel sector stabilizing after a period of decline [54] Export Manufacturing - The export manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in 2024, with Vietnam's footwear and textile exports turning positive and Taiwanese footwear and apparel companies experiencing improved revenue growth [56] - Leading companies like Huali Group and Shenzhou International showed divergent performance, with Huali Group outperforming due to its higher overseas production capacity and better future earnings expectations [63] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The report highlights the significant impact of the "trade-in" policy on domestic consumption, particularly in the home textile sector, with some regions expanding the policy to include home textiles [74] - The report expects further expansion of consumption stimulus policies in 2025, with potential extensions to service consumption and other areas, which could drive sustainable consumption recovery [83] - The report predicts that the recovery of domestic brand companies' earnings will likely occur in the second half of 2025, with valuation recovery expected to precede earnings improvement [87] Key Investment Themes Outdoor and Functional Sportswear - The outdoor and functional sportswear sector is expected to perform well in the long term, driven by favorable competitive dynamics, low penetration rates, and clear consumption upgrade trends [95] - Companies like Anta Sports have shown strong growth in niche categories such as outdoor and skiing, outperforming their main brands [96] Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics - The medical aesthetics and cosmetics sector is seen as an offensive play, with valuation upside potential as the sector's valuation remains below historical averages [99] - The report notes that domestic brands have made significant progress in product development, efficacy, and marketing, which could lead to increased market share in the medium term [106] Export Manufacturing and Tariff Risks - The report advises caution regarding potential U.S. tariff policies under a Trump administration but remains optimistic about the resilience of leading export manufacturers due to their overseas production capacity and ability to mitigate tariff risks [116] - The report expects that the impact of tariff policies on the sector's valuation will be less severe than in the previous round, given the market's more prepared expectations [121]

看好（维持） 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 17 日 叶书怀 yeshuhuai@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517090002 姚晔 yaoye@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524090006 燕斯娴 yansixian1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524080004 李雪君 021-63325888*6069 lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 策略报告 25 年食饮如何布局？ ——酒饮料 2025 年度投资策略 核心观点 ⚫ 白酒：24Q3 白酒公司营收增速普遍较年初业绩目标有较大下调，市场已充分注入业 绩降速预期，酒企业绩与终端动销更趋匹配，渠道进入库存去化后半程，预计 24Q4-25Q1 营收端利空趋于出尽，24 全年构成低基数，25 年轻装上阵。25 年白酒 布局：对比历史，三公消费后白酒指数 12-14 年自最高点下跌的最大幅度为 55%， 本 ...

行到水穷处 坐看云起时 ——纺服及时尚消费行业 2025 年度投资策略 核心观点 ⚫ 2024 年行业形势回顾：内需品牌端：需求的疲弱是行情的主导因素，主要带来以下 影响：1）需求端的疲弱明显影响上市公司业绩，部分低估值/高股息主题龙头，业 绩层面也面临压力；2）金价的过快上涨，大幅削弱了黄金珠宝行业景气度，老铺黄 金是行业内少数逆势增长的黄金珠宝企业；3）行业估值的走势以 9 月为分水岭，政 策预期为核心驱动。出口制造端：随着海外品牌去库存周期完毕，2024 年行业重拾 增长动能，越南的出口数据和台湾地区鞋服相关企业的增速呈现明显改善，国内相 关龙头个股的业绩也证实了这一趋势。 ⚫ 内需品牌端 2025 年投资策略：观察政策支持的力度和广度，期待内需消费的复苏 弹性。24 年 9 月底国内多项刺激政策大幅提振行业信心，展望未来，在 12 月政治 局会议和中央经济工作会议对消费的定调之后，我们认为需要密切跟踪消费相关的 政策力度和广度。24 年消费刺激主要聚焦两种形式：以旧换新和消费券，其中以旧 换新的效果较为显著。我们看好未来消费刺激政策的确定性和持续性，如果实际政 策落地符合预期，预计板块的估值将率先修复 ...

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 17 日 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 上海政策效果持续性强 2024-12-10 9.24 以来政策效果强于 5.17，但弱于 23年 初小阳春 2024-12-04 一线城市均已取消非普宅认定 2024-11-27 中央经济工作会议强调稳楼市 看好（维持） 核心观点 ⚫ 第 50 周房地产板块指数弱于沪深 300 指数，弱于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为-0.9%。沪深 300 指数报收 3933.18，周度涨幅为-1.0%；创业板指 数报收 2235.26，周度涨幅-1.4%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2424.66，周度涨幅为 -1.9%。 ⚫ 中央政策方面。中央经济工作会议明确提出要"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回 稳"，强调了防范化解重点领域风险的重要性，并提出要"充分释放刚性和改善性 住房需求潜力"。地方政策方面。河南对普通标准住宅增值额 20%以下免征土地增 值税。多个城市如湖北襄阳、山西临汾等提高了公积金贷款额度，放宽了贷款年 限，并允许提取父母或子女的 ...

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 房地产行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 17 日 执业证书编号：S0860521070001 上海政策效果持续性强 2024-12-10 9.24 以来政策效果强于 5.17，但弱于 23年 初小阳春 2024-12-04 一线城市均已取消非普宅认定 2024-11-27 中央经济工作会议强调稳楼市 看好（维持） 核心观点 ⚫ 第 50 周房地产板块指数弱于沪深 300 指数，弱于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为-0.9%。沪深 300 指数报收 3933.18，周度涨幅为-1.0%；创业板指 数报收 2235.26，周度涨幅-1.4%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2424.66，周度涨幅为 -1.9%。 ⚫ 中央政策方面。中央经济工作会议明确提出要"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回 稳"，强调了防范化解重点领域风险的重要性，并提出要"充分释放刚性和改善性 住房需求潜力"。地方政策方面。河南对普通标准住宅增值额 20%以下免征土地增 值税。多个城市如湖北襄阳、山西临汾等提高了公积金贷款额度，放宽了贷款年 限，并允许提取父母或子女的 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 东方证券化工周报-2024 年 12 月第 2 周 | --- | --- | |--------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 看好 （维持） | | | | | 国家 / 地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 基础化工行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2024 年 12 月 16 日 | | --- | |-----------------------------------------| | | | 021-63325888*7504 niji@orientsec.com.cn | | 执业证书编号： S0860517120003 | | guxueying@orientsec.com.cn | | 执业证书编号： S0860523080005 | | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 从巴斯夫战略调整看化工行业发展与绿色 | 2024-11-11 | | 套利 | | | | | ...

看好（维持） 国家/地区 中国 行业 新能源汽车产业链行业 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 16 日 卢日鑫 021-63325888*6118 lurixin@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100003 李梦强 limengqiang@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517100003 杨雨浓 yangyunong@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524090005 宁德时代拟建西班牙合资工厂，厦钨新能 与欣旺达联合布局固态电池 核心观点 本周看点 ⚫ 亿纬锂能全球最大单体工厂正式投产 ⚫ 宁德时代（300750.SZ）：与 Stellantis 合资建厂 ⚫ 厦钨新能（688778.SH）：与与欣旺达签署《固态电池战略合作框架协议》 ⚫ 国轩高科（002074.SZ）：投资建设摩洛哥新能源电池生产基地 锂电材料价格 ⚫ 钴产品：电解钴（17.75 万元/吨，0.00%）；四氧化三钴（11.5 万元/吨， 0.00%）；硫酸钴（2.7 万元/吨，-0.55%）； ⚫ 锂产品：碳酸锂（7.7 万元/吨，-0.46%）， ...

增量政策落地，社融总量改善——11 月社 融数据点评 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2024 年 12 月 16 日 研究结论 事件：2024 年 12 月 13 日央行公布最新金融数据，2024 年 11 月社会融资规模增量为 23357 亿元，比上年同期少增 1197 亿元；社会融资规模存量为 405.6 万亿元，同比增长 7.8%（前值 7.8%，后同）。 ⚫ 受短贷影响，新增信贷规模同比少增幅度再次扩大，但增量政策推动政府债券发行规 模增加，整体社融同比少增幅度收窄： ⚫ 新增信贷规模同比少增幅度扩大。社融口径下，11 月新增信贷 5223 亿元，同比少增 5897 亿元，上个月同比少增 1872 亿元。 ⚫ 金融机构口径，信贷数据结构上表现并不差，拖累主要源于短期贷款。11 月居民贷 款增加 2700 亿元，同比少增 225 亿元，其中短贷同比多减 964 亿元，而上个月则多 增 1543 亿元，明显承压，不过中长期贷款同比多增 669 亿元，甚至较上个月 393 亿 元略有好转，说明存量和增量房地产政策效果在持续释放，一方面直接体现在楼市交 易热度上，据中房网统计，11 月北上广深四个一线 ...

纺织服装行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 消费提振政策预期带动行业持续活跃 核心观点 ⚫ 行情回顾：上周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.01%，创业板指数下跌 1.4%，纺织服装行业指 数（中信）上涨 4.6%，表现强于沪深 300 和创业板指数，其中纺织制造板块（中 信）上涨 3.77%，品牌服饰板块（中信）上涨 5.4%。我们覆盖的个股中地素时尚、 比音勒芬和水星家纺等取得了较高收益。 ⚫ 行业与公司重要信息：（1）锦波生物：公司发布关于与专业投资机构合作参与投资 设立产业基金的公告。公司计划参与设立"服务贸易创新发展引导基金二期（有限 合伙）"，拟出资不超过 1 亿元人民币，成为该基金的有限合伙人。（2）华利集 团：公司发布关于部分闲置募集资金现金管理到期赎回并继续进行现金管理的公 告。（3）歌力思：深圳歌力思服饰股份有限公司全资子公司东明国际投资（香港） 有限公司拟将持有唐利国际控股有限公司 50%的股权转让给沙丘国际控股有限公 司，股权转让价款为 8,250 万元人民币。 ⚫ 本周建议板块组合： 伟星股份(002003，买入) 、珀莱雅(603605，买入)、申洲国际 (02313，买入)、报喜鸟(0021 ...

本周木浆系纸品价格均有上涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2024/12/14） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 3.61%，跑赢大盘 4.61pct；造纸子板块上涨 2.73%， 跑赢大盘 3.74pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.01%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 3.61%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.61pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 5 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块上涨 2.73%，跑赢大盘 3.74pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别为文娱用品、家具、造纸和包装印刷，分别上涨 10.46%、3.08%、 2.73%、2.07%。 产业链数据跟踪 ⚫ 本周国废到厂价上涨，美废、欧废价格上涨；纸浆外盘价格维稳，现货纸浆价格下 跌；溶解浆维稳。（1）本周国废到厂价（不含税）上涨 6 元/吨；美废、欧废 OCC 东南亚主港 CIF 价格上涨 5 美元/吨，日废价格维稳；（2）本周智利阔叶木浆、针 叶木浆外盘报价维稳；本周阔叶木浆现货价格下跌 39 元/吨、针叶木浆现货价格下 跌 29 元/吨；2024 年 11 月下旬中国两大港口木浆库存合计 151 万吨，环比下降 1.9% ...