谷歌液冷快速增长及供应商模式破局，国 内供应商将迎来较大机会 ——AI 液冷系列报告之三 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，随着谷歌 TPU 需求增长、TPU v7 服务器全面转向液冷，预计谷歌服务 器液冷市场将迎来快速增长。谷歌液冷供应商选择的破局，将为国内供应商提供更多配 套市场空间，液冷业务将成为国内供应商的第二增长曲线。相关标的：英维克、银轮股 份、飞龙股份、川环科技、思泉新材、祥鑫科技、中鼎股份、溯联股份、高澜股份、申 菱环境、科创新源、同飞股份、宏盛股份、奕东电子等。 风险提示 海外数据中心如谷歌等扩张速度低于预期、液冷渗透率低于预期、国内液冷供应商出海 进度低于预期、市场竞争加剧、假设条件变化影响测算结果。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0860523070005 | | | ...

| 因子 | 周度观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 本周全球铁矿石发运量3464.50万吨，环比减少128.00万吨（-3.56%）； 澳洲发运量1950.60万吨，环比下降102.00万吨（-4.97%）； | | | | 巴西发运量864.10万吨，环比减少48.80万吨（–5.35%）；澳巴合计发运量2814.70万吨，环比下降150.80万吨（–5.09%）。本周中国 | 供给 | 中性 | | 45港铁矿到港量2646.70万吨，环比减少76.70万吨（-2.82%）。矿山发运保持稳定，李节性供应压力未见明显缓解。 | | | | 全国247家钢厂高炉产能利用率84.94%，环比微增0.01%（+0.01%）； 日均铁水产量226.58万吨，环比上升0.03万吨（+0.01%）； 盈利 | 謂求 | 利空 | | 比例37.23%，环比提升1.30%（-3.62%）。铁水产量延续李节性回落，终端成材订单韧性有限，钢厂补库意愿低迷。 | | | | 中国45港铁矿库存15858.66万吨，环比增加346.03万吨（+2.23%）； 中国47港铁矿库存16619.96万吨，环比增 ...

证券研究报告 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 共识开始凝聚，共同见证历史 —有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 52 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 铜精矿长单加工费敲定，冶炼端悲观预期 | 2025-12-26 | | --- | --- | | 靴子 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a stable upward trend, with a potential for a red closing in the upcoming trading days despite minor fluctuations [3][10][15] Industry Comparison - The market has shown a consistent expectation for a rally in technology and dividend stocks since March 2023, indicating that the investment opportunities are shifting towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks after a four-year lull [4][16] Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks across three main lines: 1) The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation due to technological empowerment and supply constraints, with a focus on new materials, chemicals, metals, and agricultural products [5][17] 2) The consumer sector, which has been stagnant for years, is at a turning point with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction, suggesting potential price increases [5][17] 3) The manufacturing sector is transitioning from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues," with attention on communication, electronics, power equipment, and machinery that show performance verification expectations [5][17] Thematic Investments - Key areas of focus include: - Aerospace satellites, which are becoming a short-term market focal point, with potential for increased volatility and significant IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [6][18] - Price increases in upstream sectors, driven by supply contraction and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and new energy industries [6][18] - Artificial intelligence, which has shown rotation across various segments but with lower-than-expected intensity, suggesting a need for continued monitoring [6][18] - Nuclear fusion, which is moving from theoretical research to engineering practice, indicating a potential for significant investment demand as commercialization progresses [6][18] Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution - Domestic wafer fabs are expected to expand production next year, and the capitalization processes of major domestic memory chip manufacturers are advancing, highlighting opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers and semiconductor materials [7][19] Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector has seen prolonged adjustments, but potential industry catalysts may emerge in the first quarter, warranting attention on the solid-state battery supply chain [7][19]

年末煤炭供应显著收缩，动力煤短期有望 止跌 ——东方证券煤炭行业周报（20251222-20251228） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）在港口逐步去库的背景下，动力煤价格有望止跌，焦煤价格短期在季节 性补库的背景下走势偏强；（2）近期煤炭板块持续回调，市场对煤价预期较为悲观，短 期煤价止跌有望带来板块情绪的回暖，建议关注板块止跌反弹的机会。 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 煤炭行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090002 | | | lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 焦煤价格如期反弹，动力煤关注港口库存 | 2025-12-21 | | --- | -- ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡有韵，结构为舟 朝闻道 20251229 市场策略 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时 风格策略 年末注意优选结构，中期择时中盘蓝筹 行业策略 公用事业：电力商品属性的定价有望为行业提估值 主题策略 智能驾驶：产业链暖风频吹，投资者心花渐开 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、海外贸易摩擦加剧等风险 ⚫ 指数连阳反弹，再次站上 3900 点。自 8 月下旬以来，上涨指数围绕 3900 上下 100 多点震荡的格局较为清晰。微观筹码看，指数上有压力，下有半年线附近的支撑。 在指数未突破区间上下沿之前，保持震荡思维和轮动思路，以小周期的择时节奏把 握区间超额。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：沪深 300ETF（510300） ⚫ 立足中期视角，兼顾短期择时，在估值适中、机构低配、波动率收敛的板块和行业 中选择景气边际改善的中盘蓝筹品种，关注全球供给重塑及金融属性加持的周期 品、能以业绩验证预期的先进制造以及筹码结构得以优化的电子行业。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：中证现金流 ETF（159235）、有色 ETF（159980）、黄金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - Electricity consumption growth remains high, but there are signs of pressure on long-term contract electricity prices due to falling coal prices and high inventory levels [7] - The utility sector is viewed as a defensive asset, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [7] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity attributes to support the complex new power system [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, total electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year-on-year, a recovery from October's 4.2 percentage point decline, with a cumulative growth of 1.0% for January to November 2025 [10] - The growth rates for different sectors in November 2025 were: primary industry +7.9%, secondary industry +4.4%, tertiary industry +10.3%, and residential consumption +9.8% [10] - The report anticipates that December 2025 will see electricity consumption growth maintain around 5-6% due to ongoing growth in sectors like charging services and information technology [10] Electricity Prices - From December 19 to December 26, 2025, the average clearing price in Guangdong's electricity market was 308 RMB/MWh, up by 3.9% year-on-year [21] - In contrast, Shanxi's average market price dropped to 179 RMB/MWh, down 54.9% year-on-year [21] Coal Prices - Port coal prices continue to decline, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 672 RMB/ton, down 4.4% week-on-week [24] - The report notes a divergence in pit coal prices, with Shanxi's Q5500 coal price stable at 550 RMB/ton, while Inner Mongolia's price fell by 1.7% [24] Hydrology - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level was 171 meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 meters, while inflow rates decreased by 13.7% year-on-year [31] Market Performance - The utility sector index rose by 0.8% but underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.9% [40] - Among sub-sectors, gas showed the highest weekly increase at +2.6%, while hydropower decreased by 0.8% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on utility stocks, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, citing improved business models and growth potential [7]

Economic Growth Insights - The US GDP for Q3 2025 showed a significant growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8%[7] - Personal consumption contributed 3.5% to GDP growth, up from 2.5% in the previous quarter, indicating strong consumer spending[7] - The final sales of domestic private purchasers recorded a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, reflecting resilient domestic demand despite economic uncertainties[7] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a slight contraction of -0.3%, with non-residential construction and residential investment declining by -6.3% and -5.1%, respectively[7] - AI-related investments remain a key driver, with equipment and intellectual property investments growing at 5.4%, although this is a significant drop from earlier in the year[7] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated at approximately 0.6% for Q3, but the growth rate is expected to slow down[7] Employment and Economic Risks - The job market shows signs of significant weakness, with a three-month moving average of new jobs at only 22,000, indicating a potential recession[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a level historically associated with economic downturns[7] - Risks of inflation rebounding and the economy slipping into recession are highlighted as major concerns for future growth[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig industry, with pessimistic expectations likely to be corrected [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, suggesting that recent policies and market dynamics will drive capacity reduction, benefiting long-term performance. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the report notes a continuing structural growth trend, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain if the current capacity reduction in pig farming proceeds smoothly. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities. Related stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Not Rated), and Longping High-Tech (000998, Not Rated) [3] - The pet sector is noted for being in a phase of growth and price increases, with continuous expansion in overseas markets and rising domestic brand recognition. Key stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig industry, with the average price of live pigs as of December 26 at 11.63 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [13] - The report notes that the supply side is experiencing structural shortages, leading to price increases for medium and large pigs, with expectations of increased sales activity from smallholders as the New Year approaches [13] - The report also covers the white feather broiler chicken market, indicating a return to low volatility with prices rising to 7.82 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [19] - The report highlights the feed sector, noting that raw material prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices at 2338.63 CNY/ton, down 0.43% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3174.86 CNY/ton, up 1.20% [29]

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]