汽车电子及精密压铸双轮驱动，盈利实现 较快增长 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月22日） | 31.75 元 | | 目标价格 | 46.69 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 37.31/22.18 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 52,492/52,473 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 16,666 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 汽车与零部件 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 23 日 | 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,137 | 10,158 | 12,645 | 15,093 | 17,789 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.6% | 42.3% | 24.5% | 19.4% | 17.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 473 | 702 | 928 | 1,190 | 1,471 | | 同比增长 (% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry in China [5] Core Insights - The deep-sea industry possesses significant strategic value, impacting national energy security, technological self-reliance, and the establishment of a maritime power status [6][10] - The development of deep-sea technology is increasingly recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with government policies driving its growth [6][23] - The deep-sea sector is characterized by long commercialization cycles and high technological barriers, making it a typical "long slope, thick snow" investment track [3] Summary by Sections National Strategy and Policy - The Chinese government has significantly elevated the importance of deep-sea technology, integrating it into national strategies and policies since 2012 [23][26] - Recent policies emphasize the need for technological innovation and the development of a modern marine industry system [25][26] Resource Endowment and Industrial Foundation - China's deep-sea areas are rich in resources, with significant oil and gas reserves identified, particularly in the South China Sea [28][29] - The country has established a solid industrial foundation for deep-sea development, contributing approximately 8% to the national economy [30] Technological Development and Challenges - China has made substantial progress in deep-sea technology, particularly in manned submersibles and deep-sea drilling capabilities, achieving world-class standards [36][37][40] - However, there are still gaps in core component localization and foundational research, which need to be addressed to enhance self-sufficiency [46][49] Industry Structure and Components - The deep-sea industry comprises upstream raw materials and key components, midstream equipment manufacturing, and downstream resource development applications [50] - Key materials include high-strength metals and specialized composites, with a significant demand for domestic alternatives due to low localization rates [52] Investment Recommendations - Focus on critical materials and components with "bottleneck" risks, military applications, and the fastest commercial progress in deep-water oil and gas development [3][6] - Highlight potential investment targets such as high-end sensors, titanium alloys, and underwater unmanned combat equipment [3]

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.79、5.94、7.38 元 （原为 4.43、5.43、6.67 元），维持可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 34 倍，目标价 162.86 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、智能座舱产品业务收入低于预期、智能驾驶产品业务收入低 于预期。 智驾业务及海外市场共同促进盈利实现较 高增长 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 21,908 | 27,618 | 34,149 | 41,452 | 49,526 | | 同比增长 (%) | 46.7% | 26.1% | 23.6% | 21.4% | 19.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,537 | 2,099 | 2,799 | 3,474 | 4,314 | | 同比增长 (%) | 32.7% | 36.6% | 33.4% | 24.1% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 86.10 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 21 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.10 CNY, 4.89 CNY, and 5.94 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [2]. - The report highlights significant improvements in operational performance, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in the second quarter, driven by structural optimization and enhanced profitability [10]. - The company has strengthened its risk control capabilities in overseas operations, achieving a net operating cash flow of 960 million CNY in the second quarter, marking the best quarterly performance in nearly two years [10]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 11,485 million CNY - 2024: 13,296 million CNY (15.8% YoY growth) - 2025: 15,073 million CNY (13.4% YoY growth) - 2026: 17,376 million CNY (15.3% YoY growth) - 2027: 19,900 million CNY (14.5% YoY growth) [4] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve from 21.2% in 2023 to 21.9% in 2027, reflecting ongoing structural enhancements [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover significantly, with estimates of 1,152 million CNY in 2025, 1,372 million CNY in 2026, and 1,668 million CNY in 2027, showcasing a strong growth trend [4].

负债成本显著改善，资产质量稳中向好 ——江苏银行 25H1 财报点评 ⚫ 根 据 25H1 财 报 数 据 ， 预 测 公 司 25/26/27 年 归 母 净 利 润 同 比 增 速 为 8.6%/9.5%/9.9%， BVPS 为 14.14/15.71/17.44 元（原预测值为 14.13/15.64/17.30 元，主要 是适度 调高资 产 增速预期 ），当 前股价 对 应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.79X/0.71X/0.64X。维持相较可比公司 20%估值溢价，给予 25 年 0.99 倍 PB，对 应合理价值 13.96 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 74,293 | 80,815 | 87,898 | 96,443 | 107,173 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.91 CNY based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][6][10]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to controlled inventory and pricing strategies, with a wait for demand recovery amid a weak macroeconomic environment [2][9]. - Revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards, with expected earnings per share of 2.23 CNY and 2.16 CNY for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3][10]. - The company is experiencing a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q2 2025, attributed to economic weakness and inventory control measures [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 4,929 million CNY, a decrease of 18.0% year-on-year, with a slight recovery expected in 2027 [5]. - Gross margin is expected to decline to 73.4% in 2025, reflecting pressures from product mix and pricing [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,337 million CNY in 2025, down 19.2% from the previous year [5][10]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a net profit margin of 27.1% for 2025, down from 28.9% in 2023 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease to 12.3% in 2025, indicating a decline in profitability [5]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 21,173 million CNY, with a total share count of 59,812 million shares [6].

广电新政有望驱动长剧 ROI 回升 ——爱奇艺（IQ.O）25Q2 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 广电新政预期将长期对行业产生正面驱动，预期公司 ROI 有望逐渐回升。我们预计 公司 2025~2027 年的 GAAP 归母净利润分别为-3.48/5.33/19.77 亿元（25~27 原预 测值为 3.96/16.47/23.47 亿元，根据财报我们下调收入及毛利率预测，从而调整盈 利预测）。新政或于 26 年产生更大影响，我们切换可比公司 26 年调整后 P/E 均值 31X（汇率 USD/CNY=7.1），给予目标价为 2.37 美金/ADS，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 内容行业政策监管，版权成本提升，收入增长不及预期，竞争格局变化等风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 31873 | 29225 | 27387 | 28760 | 29875 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.91% | -8.31% | -6. ...

主站协同效应明显，外卖减亏节奏或将提 前 ——京东集团 25Q2 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 外卖协同效应凸显，电商物流业务进一步加速，Q2 外卖亏损高于预期进一步拖累公 司整体利润，但外卖亏损的改善节奏或有一定提前。预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 13276/13967/14642 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 12891/13699/14323 亿元），经 调整归母净利润为 228/436/520 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 233/434/509 亿 元）。参考可比公司，给予公司 2026 年零售+新业务 8X PE 估值，加上公司对外股 权投资价值计算得公司目标市值为 5421 亿元，对应每股股价 186.37 港元（人民币 兑港币汇率 1.10），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 政策效果不及预期，新业务亏损不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 09618.HK | | --- | --- | | | 买入（维持） | | 股价（2025年08月21日） | 121.1 港元 | | 目标价格 | 186.37 港元 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) with a target price of 27.07 CNY [1][6] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue growth in Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 25% and a significant profit increase of 367%, driven primarily by online sales channels [9] - The company is focusing on core brands and innovation in niche markets, with successful new product launches receiving positive market feedback [9] - The company’s operational quality is improving, as indicated by a decrease in inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days, along with a 40% increase in net cash from operating activities [9] - Despite challenges in overseas business, there is an expectation of gradual improvement in the second half of the year due to easing trade tensions and optimization in product and marketing strategies [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 0.50, 0.72, and 0.94 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates of 0.48, 0.69, and 0.89 CNY [6][10] - The company’s DCF target valuation remains at 27.07 CNY, supporting the "Accumulate" rating [6][10] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6,302 million, 6,886 million, and 7,484 million CNY, reflecting a recovery trajectory after a challenging 2024 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 34.00 CNY based on a 50x PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company benefits from a stable core customer base and the AI wave, being the primary packaging supplier for AMD, which accounts for over 50% of its revenue in 2024 [11]. - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow to 65 billion USD by 2027, with the company positioned to leverage advanced packaging technologies to enhance performance and reduce costs [11]. - The company is actively investing in capacity expansion, with a total planned investment of 6 billion CNY in 2025 to upgrade existing products and meet the demand for large multi-chip servers and AI products [11]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.68 CNY, 0.86 CNY, and 1.08 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in revenue and expense rates [3][12]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 22,269 million CNY in 2023 to 34,393 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.6% [5][14]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 243 million CNY in 2023 to 2,369 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [5][14].