腾讯音乐-SW 01698.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 粉丝经济成为第二增长曲线 ——腾讯音乐（1698.hk）25Q3 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 随着粉丝经济增速提速，我们判断公司会员 ARPPU 会因 SVIP 组合套餐占比增长 而提速。我们预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 112/101/114 亿元(25-27 年原预测 值为 116/111/128 亿元，因根据财报调整会员付费率，ARPPU、社交娱乐收入、毛 利率等调整盈利预测)。因25 年有高额其他收益，我们参照可比公司，给予26年24 倍 P/E，目标价 87.50 港币(79.74 人民币)，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 抖音音乐平台上线带来的格局洗牌风险；直播监管风险；直播行业内部竞争加剧风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,752 | 28,401 | 32,706 | 36,979 | 40,690 | | 同比增长 (%) | -2. ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 政策性金融工具对社融的提振作用仍待释 放 10 月金融数据点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 贸易战升级背景下经济复苏不及预期的风险；海外货币政策超预期紧缩的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 15 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 美国流动性压力：短期市场逆风，中期宽 | 2 ...

四季度起终端零售有望持续改善 期待后期 盈利弹性 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据之前的三季报和目前的草根跟踪，我们调整盈利预测（上调了未来 3 年森马和巴 拉品牌的线上增速，下调了销售费用率和管理费用率），预计 2025-2027 年每股收 益分别为 0.36、0.44 和 0.53 元（原预测为为 0.32、0.42 和 0.52 元），参考可比公 司，给予 2026 年 16 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 7.04 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 国内可选消费复苏低于预期，天气异常波动对服饰消费可能影响，公司费用控制力 度和节奏低于预期等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 13,661 | 14,626 | 15,565 | 16,786 | 18,084 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,505 | 1,548 | 1,32 ...

农业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 10 月出栏集中增量，供应压力持续显现 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20251110-20251116） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 助力未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498， 买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)、巨星农牧(603477，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块， 生猪存栏量回升提振饲料、动保需求，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向 下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，未评级)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好， 大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评 级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食 行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续 提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现，相关标的：乖宝宠物(301498， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 87.32 CNY, based on an average PE valuation of 37 times for comparable companies in 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The acquisition of intelligent technology is expected to create new growth points, particularly in the intelligent driving domain controller segment [2]. - The company forecasts EPS of 2.36, 2.85, and 3.49 CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting adjustments in revenue, gross margin, and expense ratios [3]. - The company is experiencing significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 7,679 million CNY in 2025, representing a 28.7% year-on-year increase [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: Expected to grow from 4,625 million CNY in 2023 to 10,952 million CNY in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.7%, 29.0%, 28.7%, 20.7%, and 18.2% respectively [5]. - **Operating Profit**: Projected to increase from 694 million CNY in 2023 to 1,718 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 23.1%, 29.9%, 29.2%, 20.5%, and 22.5% [5]. - **Net Profit**: Expected to rise from 609 million CNY in 2023 to 1,409 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 35.3%, 26.8%, 23.7%, 20.5%, and 22.4% [5]. - **EPS**: Forecasted to grow from 1.51 CNY in 2023 to 3.49 CNY in 2027 [5]. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to slightly decline from 29.6% in 2023 to 28.5% in 2027 [5]. - **Net Margin**: Projected to stabilize around 12.4% to 12.9% from 2025 to 2027 [5]. - **ROE**: Expected to improve from 13.8% in 2023 to 19.3% in 2027 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its global footprint and has secured new orders, indicating a strong push towards globalization [9]. - The integration of intelligent technology is anticipated to enhance the company's product offerings and market competitiveness, particularly in the automotive sector [11]. - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to fund the expansion of production capacity and enhance its technological capabilities [11].

德赛西威 002920.SZ 公司研究 | 季报点评 加快海外市场拓展，低速无人车业务启航 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.20、5.32、6.59 元（原为 4.79、5.94、7.38 元，略调 整毛利率及费用率等），可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 39 倍，目标价 163.80 元， 维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、智能座舱产品业务收入低于预期、智能驾驶产品业务收入低 于预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 21,908 | 27,618 | 34,149 | 41,452 | 49,526 | | 同比增长 (%) | 46.7% | 26.1% | 23.6% | 21.4% | 19.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,537 | 2,099 | 2,638 | 3,343 | 4,140 | | 同比增长 (%) | 32.7% | 36. ...

10 月经济数据点评 研究结论 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需增速放缓，看好增长质量 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 15 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 政策作 ...

京东集团-SW 09618.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 主站稳健增长，外卖协同效应持续释放 ——京东集团 25Q3 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 13382/14151/14981 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预 测为 13312/14094/14856 亿元），维持经调整归母净利润预测 271/438/525 亿元。 参考可比公司，给予公司 2026 年零售+新业务 9X PE 估值，加上公司对外股权投资 价值计算得公司目标市值为 5676 亿元，对应每股股价 195.39 港元（人民币兑港币 汇率 1.097），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 政策效果不及预期，新业务亏损不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,338,210 | 1,415,125 | 1,498,140 | | 同比增长 (%) | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.91 CNY, based on a 11X PE valuation for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in coal prices in Xinjiang and an increase in profits from its alumina projects, which are projected to ramp up production [2][8]. - Adjustments to the company's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are made, with new estimates of 0.57 CNY, 0.81 CNY, and 1.04 CNY respectively [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its aluminum electronic materials supply chain, with significant progress in its alumina project expected to contribute positively to profits starting in 2026 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 6,535 million CNY in 2023 to 15,621 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 1,561 million CNY in 2023 to 803 million CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 1,466 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to fluctuate, with a decrease to 10.8% in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery to 13.0% by 2027 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 15.4 for 2025, decreasing to 8.4 by 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation relative to peers [4][9]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 1.3 in 2023 to 0.9 in 2027, suggesting improving asset efficiency over time [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a warming trend in high-end consumption, particularly benefiting offline department stores and supermarkets. It notes that the retail industry has undergone significant changes over the past decade, with a contraction in supply due to the rise of e-commerce and other retail formats. The report anticipates a recovery in offline retail driven by increased policy support and adjustments in supermarket operations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the "Retail Wheel" theory reveals cyclical patterns in the retail industry. It identifies two main investment themes: 1. Accelerated adjustments in supermarkets, with resilient performance expected from leading regional retail companies such as Chongqing Department Store, Bubugao, Yonghui Supermarket, Huijia Times, Xinhua Department Store, and Jiajia Yue [3]. 2. Department stores with luxury goods operations are expected to benefit from the recovery in high-end consumption, including companies like Hangzhou Department Store and Wushang Group [3]. High-End Retail Market Signals - Several high-end retailers are showing signs of stabilization, with LVMH, Hermès, Prada, and Kering reporting positive revenue growth. For instance, Hermès and Prada saw revenue increases of 9.6% and 8%, respectively. LVMH has returned to positive growth after two quarters of decline, and Kering's losses have significantly narrowed [8]. - Notable sales growth was observed in Beijing and Shanghai's high-end retail locations, with sales increases of 7.8% and 41.9% respectively in the first three quarters [8]. Upcoming Consumer Trends - The extended Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to boost seasonal consumption, with a potential 10-day shopping period when combined with Valentine's Day. Historical data indicates that the first quarter's performance is crucial for annual revenue, suggesting a favorable outlook for 2026 [8]. - The implementation of a nationwide "immediate refund" policy for outbound travelers is anticipated to enhance consumer spending from foreign visitors, with significant increases in the number of travelers and refund amounts reported [8].