⚫ 创新药研发失败的风险；市场竞争加剧的风险；创新药商业化的风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 医药生物行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 看好（维持） 伍云飞 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 香港证监会牌照：BRX199 wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 医药生物行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 IO 和 ADC 为焦点，联用将迎突破 ——JPM MNC 肿瘤进展梳理 核心观点 "一代 IO+ADC"和"二代 IO+化疗"均在今年读出 1L 驱动基因阴性 NSCLC 的关 键数据，届时在联用背景下，ADC 相对化疗，以及二代 IO 相对一代 IO 表现如何的 关键问题将得到解答，IO 联合 ADC 的确定性将显著提升。当前，IO 已开展和各种 ADC 的联用方案探索，在二代 IO 布局火热的同时，手握 ADC 产品的丰富程度或者 普适性可能亦是未来胜负的关键。因此，对于 ADC 的需求有望进一步提升。 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 | | hujuntao@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 胡俊涛 | ...

医药生物行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 IO 和 ADC 为焦点，联用将迎突破 ——JPM MNC 肿瘤进展梳理 核心观点 "一代 IO+ADC"和"二代 IO+化疗"均在今年读出 1L 驱动基因阴性 NSCLC 的关 键数据，届时在联用背景下，ADC 相对化疗，以及二代 IO 相对一代 IO 表现如何的 关键问题将得到解答，IO 联合 ADC 的确定性将显著提升。当前，IO 已开展和各种 ADC 的联用方案探索，在二代 IO 布局火热的同时，手握 ADC 产品的丰富程度或者 普适性可能亦是未来胜负的关键。因此，对于 ADC 的需求有望进一步提升。 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发失败的风险；市场竞争加剧的风险；创新药商业化的风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 医药生物行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 看好（维持） 伍云飞 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 香港证监会牌照：BRX199 wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | | hujuntao@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 胡俊涛 | ...

资产配置 | 定期报告 预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹 20260126A 股风格及行业配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-63326320 | | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 1、 极端风险事件，例如中美关系、全球地缘超预期事件等，可能打破统计上的历史规 律； 2、 量化指标失效的风险，历史数据对未来的指引效果有限。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 董翱翔 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 ⚫ 预期层面：预期的变化利好中盘蓝筹。近一周出现事件催化的行业主要集中在中盘 ...

资产配置 | 定期报告 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-63326320 | | | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | | 美/日风险评价上升，贵金属及低风险特征 | 2026-01-26 | | --- | --- | | 权益占优：20260126 多资产配置周报 | | | CTA 策略仍强，指增和中性策略回暖： | 2026-01-22 | | 20260119 多策略及理财配置周报 | | | 风偏继续向中间集中：20260119 多资产配 | 2026-01-20 | | 置周报 | | | 以对冲配置思路应对美股/黄金"畏高" | 2026-01-19 | | 国内风险评价稳步下行，A 股/商品占优： | 2026-01-13 | | 20260112 多资产配 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 结汇如何影响资金面和存单 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 27 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | --- | --- | --- | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | 010-66210535 | | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | 010-66210535 | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | 021-63326320 | | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 转债波动不弱正股，把握估值深水区交易 节奏：可转债市场周观察 2026-01-26 ...

客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望 改善 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到 25 全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，我们调整 2025-2027 年 EPS 预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61 元（此前为 25-26 年为 0.63/0.69 元），根据可比公司 26 年 32 倍 PE 对应目标价 17.28 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 若宏观出行需求不及预期、极端天气/运力约束影响旺季接待，或茶业等新业务推进与盈 利转化慢于预期，可能导致收入与利润修复不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,045 | 1,013 | 973 | 1,034 | 1,090 | | 同比增长 (%) | 142.3% | -3.0% | -4.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 135 | 218 | 230 | 285 | 334 | | 同比增长 (%) | 168.4% | 61 ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 27 日 朝闻道 20260128 市场策略 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额 风格策略 中盘蓝筹压舱，科技成长轮动 行业策略 电子：算力需求强劲，AI 投资机会由点及面 主题策略 锂电设备：储能需求高增，行业扩产延续 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利等风险 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 震荡依旧，结构为王：朝闻道 20260126 2026-01-25 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹：朝闻道 20260123 2026-01-21 指数维持震荡，方向还在中盘蓝筹：朝闻 道 20260121 2026-01-20 ⚫ 目前市场值得关注的特征是内稳外乱下的风险评价分化，对大势而言，主基调仍然 会维持横盘震荡，略微走强。内稳外乱 ...

客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望 改善 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到 25 全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，我们调整 2025-2027 年 EPS 预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61 元（此前为 25-26 年为 0.63/0.69 元），根据可比公司 26 年 32 倍 PE 对应目标价 17.28 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 若宏观出行需求不及预期、极端天气/运力约束影响旺季接待，或茶业等新业务推进与盈 利转化慢于预期，可能导致收入与利润修复不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,045 | 1,013 | 973 | 1,034 | 1,090 | | 同比增长 (%) | 142.3% | -3.0% | -4.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 135 | 218 | 230 | 285 | 334 | | 同比增长 (%) | 168.4% | 61 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market had a good performance last week except for a significant valuation correction on Tuesday. The high sentiment in the equity market remains the biggest support for convertible bonds, and there was a behavior of bargain - hunting allocation on Tuesday [6][9]. - As the number of convertible bonds below 130 yuan decreases, convertible bonds enter the deep - water area. High valuations are expected to continue in an equity bull market, but potential losses from valuation fluctuations should be watched out for. If there was under - allocation before, it is recommended to wait for a correction to make allocations. Attention should be paid to newly issued convertible bonds, those whose redemption is waived, and those whose shareholders have not yet reduced their holdings [6][9]. - The sentiment in the equity market remained high last week. Although the proportion of margin trading purchases declined significantly under the margin policy, the central bank's targeted interest rate cut and a net MLF injection of 70 billion yuan in January supplemented market liquidity. The overall performance was similar to the past two weeks, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong and heavy - weight stocks facing significant selling pressure. External events suppressed overseas markets, increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets. A - shares rose against the trend in the global market last week. In the medium - to - long term, the upward logic remains unchanged, but in the short term, there is a continuous game between regulators and the market regarding heavy - weight value and growth themes. A sideways shock with a slight upward trend is expected, and the two - end market of technology + dividends will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Convertible Bond Fluctuations Are Not Weaker Than Underlying Stocks, Grasp the Trading Rhythm in the Valuation Deep - Water Area - The convertible bond market had a good performance last week except on Tuesday when the valuation corrected sharply. The valuation shows a trend of rapid decline and slow rise. The high - sentiment equity market supports convertible bonds, and there was bargain - hunting on Tuesday [9]. - With fewer convertible bonds below 130 yuan, they enter the deep - water area. High valuations may continue in a bull market, but valuation risks should be noted. Wait for a correction to allocate if under - allocated before. Focus on newly issued, redemption - waived, and non - shareholder - reduced convertible bonds [9]. - The equity market was high - spirited last week. Despite the drop in margin trading purchases, central bank policies supplemented liquidity. Small - and medium - cap stocks were strong, heavy - weight stocks faced selling pressure. A - shares rose against the global trend. In the short term, there is a game between regulators and the market, and the market is expected to shift to mid - cap blue - chips [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Slight Decline in Trading Volume, Valuation Continues to Rise 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Declined - The equity market cooled slightly last week. Most broad - based indexes rose, such as the CSI 500 (up 4.34%), CSI 2000 (up 4.04%), etc., while the ChiNext Index (down 0.34%), CSI 300 (down 0.62%), and SSE 50 (down 1.54%) fell. Construction materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the rise in industries, while banking, communication, and non - bank finance led the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased significantly from 3.46227 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten rising convertible bonds last week were Jiamei Convertible Bond, Fuxin Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Fuxin Convertible Bond, etc. were more active [12]. 2.2 Slight Decline in Convertible Bond Trading Volume, Good Performance of Medium - and Low - Rated, High - Price Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds rose significantly last week. The 100 - yuan premium rate decreased and then reached a new high, and the average daily trading volume decreased to 87.919 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92%, the median conversion price increased 4.5% to 110.8 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate decreased 0.9% to 32.2%. Medium - and low - rated, high - price convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated, large - cap convertible bonds performed weakly [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [6]. Core Insights - Recent signs of recovery in certain cities' transaction volumes should not be hastily interpreted as a definitive market stabilization. The report highlights two types of policies that may influence the market: interest rate cuts and direct financial support for distressed entities [1][2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has introduced measures to enhance urban renewal policies, which include a flexible five-year transition period for revitalizing existing assets [3]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in new housing sales for 2025, with a reported sales area of 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a sales value of 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Recovery - Some core cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, have shown significant increases in second-hand housing transactions, with Shanghai's sales exceeding 16,000 units for three consecutive months and Shenzhen's sales reaching 4,000 units in January, reflecting a year-on-year decline narrowing to 9% [2]. Policy Impact - The report anticipates that the market's recovery may be influenced by several factors, including previous price declines leading to panic selling, preemptive demand due to the late timing of the Spring Festival, and a positive wealth effect from the stock market [2]. Sales and Construction Data - The report notes that the decline in new housing sales is expected to continue, with a projected decrease in new construction area by 20.4% in 2025, although the decline is slightly less than in 2024. The completion area is also expected to drop by 18.1% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment opportunities: high-quality developers with low historical burdens, commercial real estate operators benefiting from a "Matthew Effect," and real estate brokerage platforms that leverage scale and brand advantages [5].