德赛西威 002920.SZ 公司研究 | 季报点评 加快海外市场拓展，低速无人车业务启航 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.20、5.32、6.59 元（原为 4.79、5.94、7.38 元，略调 整毛利率及费用率等），可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 39 倍，目标价 163.80 元， 维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、智能座舱产品业务收入低于预期、智能驾驶产品业务收入低 于预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 21,908 | 27,618 | 34,149 | 41,452 | 49,526 | | 同比增长 (%) | 46.7% | 26.1% | 23.6% | 21.4% | 19.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,537 | 2,099 | 2,638 | 3,343 | 4,140 | | 同比增长 (%) | 32.7% | 36. ...

10 月经济数据点评 研究结论 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 内需增速放缓，看好增长质量 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 15 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 政策作 ...

京东集团-SW 09618.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 主站稳健增长，外卖协同效应持续释放 ——京东集团 25Q3 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年收入为 13382/14151/14981 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预 测为 13312/14094/14856 亿元），维持经调整归母净利润预测 271/438/525 亿元。 参考可比公司，给予公司 2026 年零售+新业务 9X PE 估值，加上公司对外股权投资 价值计算得公司目标市值为 5676 亿元，对应每股股价 195.39 港元（人民币兑港币 汇率 1.097），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 政策效果不及预期，新业务亏损不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,338,210 | 1,415,125 | 1,498,140 | | 同比增长 (%) | ...

新疆煤价有望企稳，氧化铝项目或放量增 利 ——新疆众和三季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们根据公司主要产品产能、价格及联营企业的投资收益，调整公司 2025-26年并新 增 2027 年 EPS 预测分别为 0.57、0.81、1.04 元（原预测 2025-26 年为 1.12、1.16 元），根据可比公司 2026 年市盈率估值水平，给予公司 11XPE 估值，对应目标价 8.91 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 氧化铝项目建设进度不及预期、新疆煤炭价格持续低迷 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,535 | 7,321 | 8,917 | 12,196 | 15,621 | | 同比增长 (%) | -15.5% | 12.0% | 21.8% | 36.8% | 28.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,642 | 1,217 | 833 | 1,181 | 1,523 | | 同比增长 (%) | 0.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the retail industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a warming trend in high-end consumption, particularly benefiting offline department stores and supermarkets. It notes that the retail industry has undergone significant changes over the past decade, with a contraction in supply due to the rise of e-commerce and other retail formats. The report anticipates a recovery in offline retail driven by increased policy support and adjustments in supermarket operations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the "Retail Wheel" theory reveals cyclical patterns in the retail industry. It identifies two main investment themes: 1. Accelerated adjustments in supermarkets, with resilient performance expected from leading regional retail companies such as Chongqing Department Store, Bubugao, Yonghui Supermarket, Huijia Times, Xinhua Department Store, and Jiajia Yue [3]. 2. Department stores with luxury goods operations are expected to benefit from the recovery in high-end consumption, including companies like Hangzhou Department Store and Wushang Group [3]. High-End Retail Market Signals - Several high-end retailers are showing signs of stabilization, with LVMH, Hermès, Prada, and Kering reporting positive revenue growth. For instance, Hermès and Prada saw revenue increases of 9.6% and 8%, respectively. LVMH has returned to positive growth after two quarters of decline, and Kering's losses have significantly narrowed [8]. - Notable sales growth was observed in Beijing and Shanghai's high-end retail locations, with sales increases of 7.8% and 41.9% respectively in the first three quarters [8]. Upcoming Consumer Trends - The extended Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to boost seasonal consumption, with a potential 10-day shopping period when combined with Valentine's Day. Historical data indicates that the first quarter's performance is crucial for annual revenue, suggesting a favorable outlook for 2026 [8]. - The implementation of a nationwide "immediate refund" policy for outbound travelers is anticipated to enhance consumer spending from foreign visitors, with significant increases in the number of travelers and refund amounts reported [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of relative outperformance compared to market benchmarks [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a cautious optimism regarding the banking sector's performance in Q4 2025, driven by stabilizing interest margins and improving fundamentals despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread to support net interest margins, with a focus on effective monetary policy transmission [9][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies two main investment lines: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, including targets like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [4]. 2. Large state-owned banks with solid defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [4]. Banking Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the banking industry, noting a stabilization in interest margins and a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on cross-cycle adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance [9][11]. - It also mentions the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to address risks in small financial institutions, suggesting that mergers and restructuring may accelerate [11]. Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with a focus on maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates and credit [9][10]. - It highlights that the credit growth rate is expected to decline marginally, with a projected loan growth rate of 6.6% in Q3 2025 [9]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread, with specific guidelines for banks to avoid issuing loans at rates lower than government bond yields [9][11]. - It notes that as of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for listed banks has stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector as of Q4 2025 [5][21]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the growth of social financing remains under pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in October 2025, which is a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to August [8][9]. - Credit growth is weak, with a notable reliance on bill financing to compensate for the decline in traditional loans [13][14]. - The report suggests that the banking sector is expected to show relative strength due to stabilizing interest margins and positive fundamental changes [21][22]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In October 2025, social financing increased by 8.5% year-on-year, with a total increment of 815 billion yuan, which is 597 billion yuan less than the previous year [9][10]. - The total amount of RMB loans decreased by 201 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.166 billion yuan, indicating a seasonal dip in credit [8][9]. - Government bond issuance saw a year-on-year decrease of 560.2 billion yuan, further weakening the support for social financing [10][11]. - Direct corporate financing increased by 189.4 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 148.2 billion yuan and stock financing up by 41.2 billion yuan [10][11]. Loan Structure - Total RMB loans grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 220 billion yuan, which is 280 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant decline, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans both under pressure, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 5.156 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans primarily relied on bill discounting, which increased by 331.2 billion yuan year-on-year, while general loans saw a notable decrease [14][15]. Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates showed marginal declines, with M1 growing by 6.2% and M2 by 8.2% year-on-year [18][19]. - In October 2025, new RMB deposits totaled 610 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100 billion yuan, despite a significant drop in household deposits [18][20]. - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, indicating a shift away from traditional household savings [18][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality small and medium-sized banks, with specific buy ratings for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [21][22]. - It also suggests considering state-owned banks with stable fundamentals, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, which are currently unrated [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's net profit growth is projected to be 12.1% in 2025, 10.5% in 2026, and 10.1% in 2027, with a corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 9.62, 10.85, and 12.21 yuan respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.75X for 2025, 0.67X for 2026, and 0.59X for 2027, indicating a valuation premium due to the company's strong return on equity (ROE) [3]. - The reasonable value per share is estimated at 8.12 yuan, reflecting a 10% premium over comparable companies [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported total revenue of 9,870 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [4]. - Operating profit for 2023 was 4,053 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 3,282 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.6% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is reported at 0.99 yuan [4]. - The company’s total assets and loan amounts grew by 10.9% and 7.1% year-on-year respectively as of Q3 2025 [9]. - The net interest margin showed a minimal contraction of 1 basis point, the smallest decline since the second half of 2023 [9]. Dividend Policy - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend for the first time, increasing the payout ratio to 25.27% of net profit attributable to the parent company, up by 5.5 percentage points from the previous year [9].

Market Strategy - The report suggests a cautious outlook on index movements, emphasizing the potential for mid-cap stocks to uncover real investment opportunities [2][8] - It highlights that while corporate earnings are supported, sustained outperformance is challenging, and market style may shift towards mid-cap blue chips in the consumer, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors [8] Industry Strategy - In the home appliance sector, consumption driven by home scenarios is leading growth, with resilient performance from smart products [3][8] - Data from the "Double 11" shopping festival indicates strong overall performance in the home appliance industry, with significant growth in brands like Midea and Haier, and a notable 12.5% increase in transaction share on Tmall [8] Thematic Strategy - The military industry is highlighted with the commissioning of China's first electromagnetic aircraft carrier, marking a significant advancement in military capabilities and benefiting related enterprises in the new production capacity chain [4][8] - The report identifies specific companies and ETFs related to the defense sector that are expected to benefit from this advancement [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating a turning point in profitability and growth potential [6][4]. Core Insights - The military industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle driven by the initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" equipment construction, military trade, and commercial aerospace advancements [2][3]. - The overall revenue for the military sector increased by 3.07% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.89%, showing a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [6][11]. - Key segments such as components, sub-systems, and assembly levels have shown signs of recovery, with revenue growth turning positive for the first time since 2021 [18][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Analysis - In Q3 2025, revenue growth rates for components, sub-systems, and assembly levels were 8.30%, 3.37%, and 1.16% respectively, marking a positive shift from negative growth in 2024 [18][19]. - The net profit for the components level increased by 6.94% year-on-year, while sub-systems and assembly levels saw declines of 28.98% and 19.48% respectively [18][23]. 2. Cash Flow Improvement - The cash flow from operations for sub-systems and assembly levels improved, while components faced temporary pressure [40][42]. - The sales collection ratio for assembly levels rose significantly by 23.23 percentage points to 92.50% in Q3 2025, indicating better cash flow management [40][41]. 3. Prepayments and Inventory - Prepayments (including contract liabilities) across all levels showed an upward trend, with assembly levels increasing by 21.85% to 63.345 billion yuan [48][49]. - Inventory levels for components, sub-systems, and assembly increased by 12.57%, 8.81%, and 19.82% respectively, suggesting a positive outlook for future performance [53][54]. 4. Segment Performance - The weaponry segment led revenue growth with a remarkable 27.52% increase, while the aerospace segment grew by 6.17% and the information technology segment by 5.37% [35][36]. - The information technology segment achieved a net profit growth rate of 136.38%, indicating strong performance and future growth potential [36][39].