盈利能力持续提升，预计出口将成为新的 盈利增长点 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.68、2.04、2.40 元（原为 1.49、1.75、2.12 元， 调整收入及毛利率等），可比公司 26 年 PE 平均估值 11 倍，目标价 22.44 元人民 币，24.62 港元（1 港元=0.9115 元人民币），维持买入评级。 风险提示 吉利、领克、极氪品牌销量低于预期风险、成本控制不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 179,204 | 240,194 | 319,444 | 387,363 | 448,685 | | 同比增长 (%) | 21.1% | 34.0% | 33.0% | 21.3% | 15.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,806 | 7,644 | 16,055 | 19,616 | 23,173 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.3% | 100 ...

今世缘 603369.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | 基础单品发力，状态有望趋稳 | | --- | 今世缘更新 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 维持"买入"评级，下修目标价至 48.79 元（前值 51.85 元）；考虑到公司 2025 年 度公司核心单品阶段性承压，并考虑到 2026年外部需求或仍处于底部，下修 2025- 26 年盈利预测，并增加 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-27 年 EPS 分别为 2.29 元、 2.32 元、2.77 元（2025-26 年前值 EPS 分别为 3.70 元、4.40 元） 。参考可比公 司，考虑到估值切换，按 2026年 EPS给予 21X动态 PE，下修目标价至 48.79元。 ⚫ 风险提示 食品安全、产业政策调整等。 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年11月18日） | 38.32 元 | | 目标价格 | 48.79 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 55.79/37.7 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 124,680/124,680 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 47,777 | ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 风格策略 科技成长散而后擒，周期制造消费微澜蓄浪 行业策略 化工：全球供给收缩预期升温，产业链有望结构性调整 主题策略 金融科技：从重应用到重生态，金融科技迎来新叙事 全球地缘政治的不确定性、化工需求与产业链稳定性变动、消费数据低于预期、金融科技政策变动等风 险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 震荡整固看风格，中盘蓝筹谋先机 朝闻道 20251119 市场策略 震荡整固看风格，中盘蓝筹谋先机 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效：朝闻道 | 2025-11-16 | | --- | --- | | 20251117 | | | 淡看指数腾细浪，且向中盘掘真金：朝闻 | 2025-11-13 | | 道 20251114 | | | 震荡徐行，择时而动：朝闻道 20251112 | 2025-11-11 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明 ...

AI 驱动广告 eCPM 攀升，期待王者 IP 贡献 游戏增量 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）25Q3 点评 腾讯控股 00700.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年11月14日） | 641 港元 | | 目标价格 | 664.22 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 683/361.64 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 914,477/914,477 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 5,861,798 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 传媒 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 11 月 18 日 | ⚫ 我们预期游戏、广告增速提升比预期持续性更长，期待《王者荣耀世界》（定档春 季）、《粒粒的小人国》等头部游戏贡献 26 年增量。预计 25~27 年 IFRS 归母净利 润为 2260/2611/2970 亿元（25~27 年原值为 2231/2577/2970 亿元，因根据财报调 整游戏、广告、支付等假设，我们调整盈利预测）。采用 SOTP 估值，给予对应目 标价 664.22 港币（605. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current strategy for credit bonds is to focus on coupon hunting, which is superior to the duration strategy. The main areas for exploration include medium - and low - quality urban investment bonds and some entities with a large convexity in the yield curve [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - The bond market was dull last week, lacking a trading theme. Credit bonds showed a hesitant performance, and the previous downward trend in yields paused. Looking ahead, positive factors for credit bonds include the concentrated opening period of amortized - cost - based open - end bond funds, stable liquidity, and the approaching time for year - end allocation to build coupon positions for the next year. Negative factors include the halt of the rapid decline in yields, a continuous drop in turnover rate, the uncertainty of the public - offering fee regulation, and potential disturbances from the stock market [5][8]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no cases of bond defaults and overdue, no enterprises with their main ratings or outlooks downgraded, and no bonds with their debt ratings lowered from November 10 to November 16, 2025. However, several companies had significant negative events, such as Shaanxi Tourism Group Co., Ltd. receiving a warning from the inter - bank market, and many companies facing issues like debt defaults, regulatory warnings, and restrictions on high - consumption of their legal representatives [11][12]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - Issuance volume remained high, but the maturity volume increased significantly, leading to a reduction in net financing. From November 10 to November 16, credit bond primary issuance was 269.9 billion yuan, a 7% decrease from the previous period. The total repayment amount rose to 238.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net inflow of 31.4 billion yuan. The cost of primary issuance continued to narrow slightly, with the AA + level showing a more significant reduction. The average coupon rates for AAA and AA + were 2.10% and 2.15% respectively, with the former increasing by 1bp and the latter decreasing by 11bp [12][13]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuations of credit bonds with various ratings and tenors fluctuated within a narrow range. Only low - grade and long - term bonds showed a slight narrowing. Credit spreads remained flat in the short term and widened passively in the medium - and long - term. The turnover rate continued to decline, dropping 0.18 percentage points to 1.69%. The spreads of most industries widened by 1bp, while the real - estate industry's spreads narrowed by 2bp. Among real - estate enterprises, the spreads of Times Holdings, Rongqiao, Vanke, and Yuzhou Hongtu widened the most [5][17][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 89.79 CNY based on a 73x PE for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous high growth in performance, with a significant potential in overseas markets. The revenue for the first three quarters reached 5.148 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.34%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 229 million CNY, up 50.72% [2][9]. - The company is focusing on building an intelligent platform that integrates AI technologies across various terminal scenarios, which positions it well for future growth in smart devices [9]. - The global expansion strategy is yielding results, with revenue from overseas markets growing by 81.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating successful international collaboration and market penetration [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects revenues of 5.242 billion CNY in 2023, increasing to 8.518 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% [5][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 466 million CNY in 2023 to 665 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a steady increase [5][10]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 36.9% in 2023 to 32.9% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 7.0% to 7.8% during the same period [5][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.01 CNY in 2023 to 1.44 CNY in 2027, indicating positive growth in shareholder value [5][10].

市场策略 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 ⚫ 周五沪指微创年内新高后，开启调整模式，符合我们近期坚守"新高不高，仍是震 荡"的预判。站在当下，我们认为盈利预期平稳+无风险利率预期不变或略微上行+ 风险评价预期略微下行+风险偏好向中间收敛，指数仍将维持"有涨有跌，横盘震 荡，略微走强"的状态。 相关 ETF：现金流 ETF 汇添富（159276）、现金流 ETF（159399）、现金流 ETF800（516460）、中证现金流 ETF(159235) 风格策略 中期关注中盘蓝筹崛起，短期关注科技成长反弹 行业策略 生猪：产能去化确定性强化 投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 朝闻道 20251117 主题策略 商贸零售：2026 年超长春节有望拉动旺季消费 风险提示 消费复苏不及预期、供给侧减量政策落地不及预期、货币政策超预期收紧、财政政策不及预期、人形机器 人产业化进度不及预期。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 淡看指数腾细浪，且向中盘掘真金 ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 朝闻道 20251117 市场策略 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 ⚫ 周五沪指微创年内新高后，开启调整模式，符合我们近期坚守"新高不高，仍是震 荡"的预判。站在当下，我们认为盈利预期平稳+无风险利率预期不变或略微上行+ 风险评价预期略微下行+风险偏好向中间收敛，指数仍将维持"有涨有跌，横盘震 荡，略微走强"的状态。 相关 ETF：现金流 ETF 汇添富（159276）、现金流 ETF（159399）、现金流 ETF800（516460）、中证现金流 ETF(159235) 风格策略 中期关注中盘蓝筹崛起，短期关注科技成长反弹 行业策略 生猪：产能去化确定性强化 主题策略 商贸零售：2026 年超长春节有望拉动旺季消费 风险提示 消费复苏不及预期、供给侧减量政策落地不及预期、货币政策超预期收紧、财政政策不及预期、人形机器 人产业化进度不及预期。 ⚫ 当前市场内外部环境平稳，预期因素不是市场中短期交易的核心，行情特征来自风 格与交易层面的变动。科技成长风格总体预期难以上提，交易相对拥挤，处于休整 中酝酿分化轮动的状态，调整较深、筹码相对优化的机器人、人工智能或处于 ...

| | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 品种 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 46 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格局变革 | 2025-11-11 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a "difficult to decline" phase starting in 2026, with a clear bottom and upward potential. The growth will shift from valuation recovery to performance-driven [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of "individual stock improvement" and "structural dividends," suggesting that the sector is currently in a performance bottoming phase, with short-term trading opportunities focused on stocks showing significant performance recovery [8] - The report anticipates that the overall performance of the food and beverage sector will improve in 2026, driven by supply-side adjustments and a gradual recovery in consumer demand [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Short-term strategy focuses on trading "individual stock improvement" and "turnaround" themes, recommending stocks such as Miaokelando (600882, Buy), Jinshiyuan (603369, Buy), Gujinggongjiu (000596, Buy), and Shede Liquor (600702, Buy) [4] - Structural dividends are expected to continue, with recommendations for Dongpeng Beverage (605499, Buy) and Yanjinpuzi (002847, Buy) [4] - On the demand side, stability or market share themes are highlighted, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519, Buy), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809, Buy), Luzhou Laojiao (000568, Buy), Qingdao Beer (600600, Buy), and Yili Group (600887, Buy) [4]