有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 冶炼"反内卷"措施有望落地，铜价与加 工费或迎齐升 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 铜冶炼"反内卷"自律措施落地效果不及预期风险、铜矿重启进度不及预期风险、宏观 经济波动导致下游铜需求不及预期风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 30 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | Grasberg 铜矿宣布复产计划，中期铜冶炼 | 2025-11-24 | | --- | --- | | 费或存上行预期 | | | 关注被错杀的有色细分板块：——有色钢 | 2025-11-24 | | 铁行业周观点（2025 年第 47 周） | | | 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 | 2025- ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of production capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][32] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a significant reduction in breeding sows, with the number decreasing to 39.9 million heads by the end of October 2025, a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [9] - October saw a substantial increase in pig slaughtering, with 38.34 million pigs processed, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [9] - The average price for market pigs dropped to 12.27 yuan/kg in October, down 11% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment for the industry [9][40] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices averaging 2329.8 yuan/ton, up 2.17% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3107.43 yuan/ton, up 1.04% week-on-week [21][40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with grain prices on an upward trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][32] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion, presenting investment opportunities in leading companies [3][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry in China [5]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to boost sales in the U.S. real estate chain, particularly in home appliances and power tools by 2026. The domestic subsidy effect is slowing down, making leading companies more stable. The long-term focus remains on overseas expansion, with companies that diversify their production capacity being favored [3][7]. - Leading companies exhibit higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, making them preferred choices for stable investments. Recommended stocks include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual [3]. - The export market holds potential, with expectations of a valuation switch by 2026, particularly for Stone Technology [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance are expected to explore new growth avenues, with Anfu Technology being highlighted [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading companies with higher operational efficiency and overseas production capabilities, which are expected to perform better under pressure from demand and cost [3][7]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of white goods production, with a total of 30.18 million units produced in December, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.1%. The report anticipates that leading companies will gain market share despite challenges [7]. - The cleaning appliance sector is experiencing a trend of market concentration, with the top two companies increasing their market share significantly, indicating a shift towards leading brands [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is exploring new growth points in value-added services by partnering with Keda Nengtong to develop community-based new energy services, focusing on sectors such as automotive, home furnishings, retail, and services [2] - The company has seen significant growth in its liquor business, with a year-on-year increase of over 88% in six trial regions, generating revenue of 190 million [2] - The company is also expanding its community charging business, with over 600,000 charging sockets operational across more than 5,000 communities, serving over 100 million users [2] - The "Zero Resident" cleaning robot has been deployed in 17 projects across major cities, with plans to scale to 1,000 units, enhancing efficiency and cost savings [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 42,612 million in 2023 to 52,727 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 292 million in 2023 to 1,977 million by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery after a decline [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.09 in 2023 to 0.59 in 2027 [7] - The gross margin is expected to decline from 20.5% in 2023 to 17.0% in 2027, indicating pressure on profitability [7] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock is set at 6.83 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11X for 2026 [8] - The current stock price is 6.58 HKD, suggesting a potential upside [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.4 CNY based on a projected 46 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [3][10][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.67 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 107 million CNY, reducing losses by 9.45% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue growth of 64.5% to 4.25 billion CNY, with a net profit loss of 10.42 million CNY, marking a 74.8% reduction in losses [2]. - The report highlights that the growth in revenue is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of integrated business, with expectations for future growth to hinge on advancements in AI and international market expansion [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 11.983 billion CNY, 13.274 billion CNY, and 14.242 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 74 million CNY, 395 million CNY, and 492 million CNY [5][10]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 15.3% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2025, before slightly recovering to 14.6% in 2026 [5]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from -5.2% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [5]. Business Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on integrating AI technology into its financial services, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the domestic market and expand its presence in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [9]. - The report notes that the company has become a leader in the domestic financial technology sector, with significant growth potential in international markets [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.65 CNY, based on a 35 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [3][4]. Core Views - The current low magnesium prices are expected to open up application spaces, with breakthroughs in technology enhancing production efficiency [2]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.14, 0.39, and 0.67 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.32, 0.52, and 0.77 CNY [3]. - The company is focusing on continuous research and innovation, particularly in semi-solid injection molding technology, which significantly improves material utilization and reduces production costs [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 7,652 million CNY in 2023 to 13,437 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [7][10]. - Operating profit is expected to recover from a low of 115 million CNY in 2025 to 703 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [7][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 136 million CNY in 2025 to 661 million CNY in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [7][10]. Market and Industry Insights - The magnesium price remains low, which is accelerating the penetration of magnesium in automotive lightweighting, particularly in electric vehicles where magnesium usage is expected to increase significantly [9]. - The company has substantial mineral resources, with reserves of 0.9 billion tons and 5.8 billion tons in its subsidiaries, ensuring stable raw material supply for magnesium and magnesium alloy production [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The expansion project enhances the company's scarce attributes and the green transformation strengthens its cost advantages [2] - The company is expected to benefit from a steady increase in aluminum prices, leading to improved profitability as both volume and price rise [11] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 1.05, 1.35, and 1.51 yuan respectively [4] - Based on comparable company valuations, a target price of 14.85 yuan is set for 2026, corresponding to an 11x PE ratio [4] - Revenue projections show a recovery with expected growth rates of 25.5% in 2025, 11.1% in 2026, and 6.1% in 2027 [13] - The company's operating profit is projected to increase significantly, with a forecast of 5,506 million yuan in 2025 and 7,073 million yuan in 2026 [13] Company Progress and Strategic Initiatives - The company is on track to complete its 1.4 million tons electrolytic aluminum green low-carbon efficiency improvement project by Q2 2026, which will enhance its production capacity and energy efficiency [11] - The project utilizes advanced energy-saving technologies, contributing to the company's green transformation and competitive advantage in electricity costs [11] - The company anticipates a significant increase in profitability following the completion of the project, driven by both volume and price increases in the electrolytic aluminum sector [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 44.46 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire Deep Blue Co., which is expected to enhance its data center liquid cooling layout and increase profitability [2][10]. - The financial forecasts for EPS from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively, with a maintained average PE valuation of 39 times for comparable companies in 2025 [3]. - The acquisition of Deep Blue Co. will strengthen the company's capabilities in controllers and drivers, particularly in the data center liquid cooling sector, which is anticipated to contribute positively to revenue and profit growth [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 67.7% in 2023 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 59.7% in 2023 [5][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to increase from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 84.4 yuan based on a 40x P/E ratio for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in its chip inductor business, driven by advancements in ASIC power supply applications and a strong position in high-frequency applications [2][8]. - The pricing strategy for inductor products is well-structured, allowing the company to maintain healthy margins while expanding market share [8]. - The introduction of Google's TPU and the potential for increased demand in ASIC power management are seen as key growth drivers for the company's products [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,159 million yuan in 2023 to 2,945 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 256 million yuan in 2023 to 753 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of around 23% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.88 yuan in 2023 to 2.60 yuan in 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 46.6 for 2025, which is expected to decrease to 29.4 by 2027 [5][9]. - The projected P/B ratio is expected to decline from 7.2 in 2025 to 5.2 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [5][9].