风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发进度不及预期、产品竞争加剧导致销售不及预期、公司中长期盈利能力 下降的风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 186 | 169 | 141 | 323 | 525 | | 同比增长 (%) | - | -9.0% | -16.5% | 129.3% | 62.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (284) | (240) | (346) | (377) | (290) | | 同比增长 (%) | 41.2% | 15.4% | -43.8% | -9.1% | 23.1% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | (284) | (240) | (346) | (377) | (290) | | 同比增长 (%) | 41.3% | 15.4% | -43.9% | -9.1% | 23.1% | | 每股收益（元） | (0.49) | (0.42) | (0.60) | (0.65) | (0.50) ...

奈雪的茶 02150.HK 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 品牌升级聚焦全球化，新模式探索待验证 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 风险提示 食品安全风险、门店扩张风险、新品研发风险、成本波动风险、费用支出改善不及预 期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,164 | 4,921 | 5,067 | 5,333 | 5,838 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.3% | -4.7% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 120 | (583) | (136) | (82) | 18 | | 同比增长 (%) | -140.4% | -583.6% | 76.7% | 39.7% | 122.5% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 13 | -917 | -262 | -212 | -6 | | 同比增长 (%) | -102.8% | -7036.5% | 71.4% | 19 ...

GB200 预计加速出货 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司25-27年每股收益分别为1.47、1.79、2.10元（原25-26年预测1.68、 2.08 元，主要调整了费用率和其他损益项等假设）。采用可比公司 25 年 19 倍 PE 进 行估值，对应目标价为 27.93 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 业务竞争加剧，AI 进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 476,340 | 609,135 | 761,524 | 935,725 | 1,113,631 | | 同比增长 (%) | -7% | 28% | 25% | 23% | 19% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 23,067 | 25,935 | 33,110 | 41,023 | 49,157 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5% | 12% | 28% | 24% | 20% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 21,040 | 23,2 ...

亏损缩窄，商业化表现值得期待 ——益方生物 24 年报&25 一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 24 年报，我们下调公司 25-27 年营收及费用预测，预测公司 25-27 年归母 净利润为：-3.46/-3.77/-2.90 亿元（原 25-26 年预测为-2.35/-3.54 亿元），对公司自 由现金流进行绝对估值，预测公司合理市值为 163.33 亿元，对应目标价为 28.24 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发进度不及预期、产品竞争加剧导致销售不及预期、公司中长期盈利能力 下降的风险等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 186 | 169 | 141 | 323 | 525 | | 同比增长 (%) | - | -9.0% | -16.5% | 129.3% | 62.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (284) | (240) | (346) | (377) | (290) | | 同 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 分红对期指的影响 20250530 研究结论 | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 2667.20 | 16.98 | -11.50 | 5.48 | | IH2507 | 2633.20 | 53.85 | -45.50 | 8.35 | | IH2509 | 2629.60 | 58.15 | -49.10 | 9.05 | | IH2512 | 2628.40 | 58.15 | -50.30 | 7.85 | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2506 | 3822.40 | 19.41 | -17.83 | 1.58 | | IF2507 | 3785.60 | 54.22 | -54.63 | -0.41 | | IF2509 | 3752.00 | 64.66 | -88.23 | -23.57 | | IF2512 | 3715.20 ...

值得买 AI 产品更新，AI 营销导购再进一步 核心观点 事件：值得买于 5 月 28 日发布四款 AI 导购应用及升级，包括火眼 AIUC 引擎、什么值 得买 GEN2、AI 购物管家张大妈以及海纳 MCP server 服务。进一步拓展 AI 营销导购布 局。此外公司计划进一步加快 AI 开发进度，采用月度轻量级发布会的形式发布本月 AI 产品更新。具体看： 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ AI 营销布局加速，看好公司 AI 导购技术领先地位。我们维持预测公司 25-27 年归母 净利润 1.3/1.5/1.8 亿元，维持 25 年 60xPE 估值（调整后均值），对应目标价 38.40 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧，流量增长放缓，AI 产品进展不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,452 | 1,518 | 1,704 | 1,925 | 2,322 | | 同比增长 (%) | 18.2% | 4.5% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The overseas shading fabric market is large, and domestic companies are accelerating their international expansion, with market share expected to continue increasing. Some domestic shading material companies have also expanded into overseas shading finished products, primarily through cross-border e-commerce, achieving significant results [4][9] - The company West Gate (605155, Buy) is recommended for attention due to its dual-driven strategy focusing on shading fabrics and finished products, with potential for improved profitability [4] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The U.S. government announced a reduction in tariffs on small packages from 120% to 54%, easing the pressure on cross-border e-commerce businesses. This adjustment is expected to maintain the competitiveness of Chinese shading finished products in the U.S. market [9] - The shading materials industry is experiencing a dual-driven growth model, with domestic companies leveraging manufacturing advantages to capture a stable growth in the overseas shading fabric market [9] Company Performance - West Gate's shading finished product business achieved revenue of 320 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 119.7%, primarily driven by cross-border e-commerce [9] - The gross profit margin for this business was 48.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points, indicating strong profitability potential [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The overseas shading fabric market is large, and domestic companies are accelerating their international expansion, with market share expected to continue increasing. Some domestic shading material companies have also expanded into overseas shading finished product businesses, primarily through cross-border e-commerce, achieving significant results [4][9] - The dual-driven strategy of shading fabrics and finished products is recommended, focusing on companies with potential for profit improvement, such as industry leader Xidamen (605155, Buy) [4] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Dynamics**: The cross-border e-commerce business has become an important expansion direction for functional shading material companies. For instance, Xidamen has actively developed overseas cross-border e-commerce business through platforms like Amazon, accelerating brand internationalization and establishing overseas warehouses in regions like the US and Australia [9] - **Financial Performance**: In 2024, Xidamen's finished product business achieved revenue of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.7%, primarily driven by cross-border e-commerce. Additionally, this business segment maintained a gross profit margin of 48.7%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [9] - **Tax Adjustments**: The reduction of the small package tax rate from 120% to 54% significantly alleviates the pressure on cross-border e-commerce merchants. The US market remains the largest consumer market for shading finished products, and while increased tariffs may impact operational costs, companies can partially transfer costs through price adjustments. The recent tax reduction is expected to help maintain the competitiveness of Chinese shading finished product companies [9] - **Growth Potential**: The overseas shading fabric market is mature and large enough, with domestic companies having manufacturing advantages. As international expansion accelerates, market share is expected to continue growing, leading to stable growth in the shading fabric business. Additionally, some companies are beginning to focus on overseas sales of shading finished products through online platforms targeting the European and American markets, showing significant potential for future growth [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark index by more than 5% [4][18]. Core Insights - The first quarter results for home appliances generally exceeded expectations, with domestic sales likely to benefit from policy support. The demand for home appliances in the second quarter is anticipated to be promising due to high temperatures and low inventory during the air conditioning peak season [2][14]. - DJI's entry into the robotic vacuum cleaner market is expected to stimulate innovation within the industry, although its short-term impact is deemed limited. The long-term potential for growth is highlighted by the low penetration rates and the need for improved user experiences in the robotic vacuum sector [6][10][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on quality white goods leaders benefiting from domestic policy continuation and overseas expansion, such as Midea Group (000333, not rated), Haier Smart Home (600690, Buy), and Hisense Home Appliances (000921, not rated) [2][14]. - Companies with a strong presence in mature overseas markets and short-term global supply chain advantages are recommended, including Hisense Visual (600060, Accumulate) and Ousheng Electric (301187, Buy) [2][14]. - Small appliance companies expected to benefit from national subsidies and long-term demand growth are highlighted, including Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Bear Electric (002959, Accumulate) [2][14]. - Kitchen appliance companies that are flexible in strategy and likely to expand overseas are also recommended, such as Robam Appliances (002508, Buy) and Vatti Corporation (002035, not rated) [2][14]. Industry Dynamics - DJI's entry into the robotic vacuum cleaner market is seen as a validation of the industry's high growth potential, with expectations of continued demand supported by national subsidies. The report notes that the domestic penetration rate for robotic vacuums remains low, indicating room for expansion [12]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with major players like Ecovacs maintaining over 25% market share, while Stone Technology has also increased its market share to over 25% through enhanced marketing investments [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.86 CNY, reflecting a 25% premium based on the company's growth rate and a PE ratio of 41 times for 2026 [2][5]. Core Views - The company has won a bid for a semi-physical simulation testing system from LiaoShen Industrial Group, with a contract value of 36.5 million CNY, indicating a recovery in industry demand and potential improvement in the company's fundamentals [1][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with EPS estimates revised to 0.13 CNY and 0.46 CNY respectively, and a new estimate for 2027 at 0.68 CNY [2]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for military simulation systems, driven by the need for reliable and stable testing methods for guided weapons, which is expected to create significant incremental demand from military exercises and weapon evaluations [8]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 275 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 60%, and is expected to reach 464 million CNY by 2027, maintaining a growth rate of approximately 29.2% [4][11]. - The operating profit is forecasted to turn positive in 2025, reaching 14 million CNY, and is expected to grow to 77 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [4][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 13 million CNY in 2025, with a substantial increase to 68 million CNY by 2027, indicating a strong turnaround from previous losses [4][11].