固定收益 | 动态跟踪 票息策略优于久期策略 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 公募 REITs 续跌，配置窗口渐行渐近：公 | 2025-11-12 | | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 89.79 CNY based on a 73x PE for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous high growth in performance, with a significant potential in overseas markets. The revenue for the first three quarters reached 5.148 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 39.34%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 229 million CNY, up 50.72% [2][9]. - The company is focusing on building an intelligent platform that integrates AI technologies across various terminal scenarios, which positions it well for future growth in smart devices [9]. - The global expansion strategy is yielding results, with revenue from overseas markets growing by 81.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating successful international collaboration and market penetration [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects revenues of 5.242 billion CNY in 2023, increasing to 8.518 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% [5][10]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 466 million CNY in 2023 to 665 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a steady increase [5][10]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 36.9% in 2023 to 32.9% in 2027, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 7.0% to 7.8% during the same period [5][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.01 CNY in 2023 to 1.44 CNY in 2027, indicating positive growth in shareholder value [5][10].

市场策略 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 ⚫ 周五沪指微创年内新高后，开启调整模式，符合我们近期坚守"新高不高，仍是震 荡"的预判。站在当下，我们认为盈利预期平稳+无风险利率预期不变或略微上行+ 风险评价预期略微下行+风险偏好向中间收敛，指数仍将维持"有涨有跌，横盘震 荡，略微走强"的状态。 相关 ETF：现金流 ETF 汇添富（159276）、现金流 ETF（159399）、现金流 ETF800（516460）、中证现金流 ETF(159235) 风格策略 中期关注中盘蓝筹崛起，短期关注科技成长反弹 行业策略 生猪：产能去化确定性强化 投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 朝闻道 20251117 主题策略 商贸零售：2026 年超长春节有望拉动旺季消费 风险提示 消费复苏不及预期、供给侧减量政策落地不及预期、货币政策超预期收紧、财政政策不及预期、人形机器 人产业化进度不及预期。 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 淡看指数腾细浪，且向中盘掘真金 ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 朝闻道 20251117 市场策略 震荡格局未改，防守策略生效 ⚫ 周五沪指微创年内新高后，开启调整模式，符合我们近期坚守"新高不高，仍是震 荡"的预判。站在当下，我们认为盈利预期平稳+无风险利率预期不变或略微上行+ 风险评价预期略微下行+风险偏好向中间收敛，指数仍将维持"有涨有跌，横盘震 荡，略微走强"的状态。 相关 ETF：现金流 ETF 汇添富（159276）、现金流 ETF（159399）、现金流 ETF800（516460）、中证现金流 ETF(159235) 风格策略 中期关注中盘蓝筹崛起，短期关注科技成长反弹 行业策略 生猪：产能去化确定性强化 主题策略 商贸零售：2026 年超长春节有望拉动旺季消费 风险提示 消费复苏不及预期、供给侧减量政策落地不及预期、货币政策超预期收紧、财政政策不及预期、人形机器 人产业化进度不及预期。 ⚫ 当前市场内外部环境平稳，预期因素不是市场中短期交易的核心，行情特征来自风 格与交易层面的变动。科技成长风格总体预期难以上提，交易相对拥挤，处于休整 中酝酿分化轮动的状态，调整较深、筹码相对优化的机器人、人工智能或处于 ...

| | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 当降息预期回摆，关注中期财政发力受益 品种 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 46 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 西芒杜项目顺利投产，铁矿供给格局变革 | 2025-11-11 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a "difficult to decline" phase starting in 2026, with a clear bottom and upward potential. The growth will shift from valuation recovery to performance-driven [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of "individual stock improvement" and "structural dividends," suggesting that the sector is currently in a performance bottoming phase, with short-term trading opportunities focused on stocks showing significant performance recovery [8] - The report anticipates that the overall performance of the food and beverage sector will improve in 2026, driven by supply-side adjustments and a gradual recovery in consumer demand [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Short-term strategy focuses on trading "individual stock improvement" and "turnaround" themes, recommending stocks such as Miaokelando (600882, Buy), Jinshiyuan (603369, Buy), Gujinggongjiu (000596, Buy), and Shede Liquor (600702, Buy) [4] - Structural dividends are expected to continue, with recommendations for Dongpeng Beverage (605499, Buy) and Yanjinpuzi (002847, Buy) [4] - On the demand side, stability or market share themes are highlighted, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519, Buy), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809, Buy), Luzhou Laojiao (000568, Buy), Qingdao Beer (600600, Buy), and Yili Group (600887, Buy) [4]

投资建议与投资标的 风险提示：军品订单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期；竞争格局及份 额波动风险；产品价格下降风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 16 日 | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质战斗力 核心观点 | 核心观点：关注新质战斗力及商业航天 4 | | --- | | 1.1 智能化驱动作战模式升级，无人僚机未来市场广阔 4 | | 1.2 "朱雀三号"即将首飞，未来规模化星座组网计划有望加速 4 | | 1.3 继续看好内需新质战斗力、军贸等方向 4 | | 风险提示 5 | | 附录：行情走势与主要新闻公告 6 | | 2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 13.33 per share, based on a 45x PE valuation for 2026, corresponding to a market capitalization of RMB 555 billion [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid iteration of AI features and creative functionalities, enhancing its global influence and brand effect, particularly in lifestyle applications [8]. - The company has introduced 51 new features in its flagship app, with 96% of these being AI-related, indicating a strong focus on innovation and user engagement [8]. - The collaboration with Alibaba is anticipated to enhance the company's product capabilities in the e-commerce sector, leveraging its image processing strengths [8]. Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 610 million, RMB 936 million, and RMB 1.314 billion, respectively, with significant growth rates [3]. - Revenue projections for the same period are RMB 3.902 billion, RMB 4.859 billion, and RMB 5.995 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 61.4% in 2023 to 75.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of November 14, 2025, was HKD 8.38, with a 52-week high of HKD 12.5 and a low of HKD 2.6, suggesting volatility in market performance [5]. - The report highlights the company's relative performance against the Hang Seng Index, showing a significant increase of 181.26% over the past year [6].

机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 产业共识正在收敛，量产时刻正在临近， 投资机会即将出现 ——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 近期市场对机器人量产的信心出现回落，机器人板块略有回调。我们认为行业量产的前 提是产业在场景、模型、结构等方面出现了共识的收敛。我们预计 26 年上半年有望出现 更明确的量产情况，其中 26Q1 的 V3 落地和小批量生产有望成为重要信号，我们认为市 场有望重点关注产业链量产供应商。相关标的：拓普集团(601689，买入)、三花智控 (002050，买入)、五洲新春(603667，买入)、恒立液压(601100，未评级)、震裕科技 (300953，买入)、优必选(09880，未评级)。 风险提示 厂商生产不及预期、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放 缓、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期、订单执行效果低于预期、产品 降价风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 16 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orient ...

腾讯音乐-SW 01698.HK 公司研究 | 季报点评 粉丝经济成为第二增长曲线 ——腾讯音乐（1698.hk）25Q3 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 随着粉丝经济增速提速，我们判断公司会员 ARPPU 会因 SVIP 组合套餐占比增长 而提速。我们预计 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 112/101/114 亿元(25-27 年原预测 值为 116/111/128 亿元，因根据财报调整会员付费率，ARPPU、社交娱乐收入、毛 利率等调整盈利预测)。因25 年有高额其他收益，我们参照可比公司，给予26年24 倍 P/E，目标价 87.50 港币(79.74 人民币)，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 抖音音乐平台上线带来的格局洗牌风险；直播监管风险；直播行业内部竞争加剧风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,752 | 28,401 | 32,706 | 36,979 | 40,690 | | 同比增长 (%) | -2. ...