Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 18.72 CNY based on a projected EPS of 0.17, 0.24, and 0.32 CNY for 2025 to 2027, respectively, and a reference PE of 78 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to increase its investment in its subsidiary, Aerospace Rocket Company, by 728 million CNY, which includes 128 million CNY from a previous refinancing project [2]. - The investment aims to enhance the subsidiary's capacity to meet the growing demand in the aerospace industry and to support the development of core technologies in commercial aerospace [9]. - The company has a strong position in the commercial aerospace sector, leveraging its experience in traditional aerospace projects and its leading technology in inter-satellite laser communication [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 18,727 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%. However, a decline of 23.7% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 9.6%, 33.1%, and 23.3% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 589 million CNY in 2023, with a decrease of 12.1%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, reaching 1,292 million CNY by 2027 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 525 million CNY in 2023, with a decline of 14.3%, and is projected to grow to 1,042 million CNY by 2027 [5][11]. - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 0.32 CNY in 2027 [5][11]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leader in the small and medium-sized drone market and is expected to benefit from the growing demand for low-cost drones [9]. - The investment in the Aerospace Rocket Company is expected to facilitate the development of new technologies and enhance the company's competitive edge in the commercial aerospace market [9]. - The company is also recognized for its strong electronic information capabilities, which are expected to drive revenue growth in its drone subsidiary [9].

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 冬藏蓄势等贝塔，防守亦有阿尔法 朝闻道 20251217 风格策略 年末注意防守，中期择时中盘蓝筹 行业策略 黄金：美元信用受损，黄金价格或受益上涨 主题策略 特钢：成本下行预期叠加进出口管理新规，行业迎高质量发展 相关 ETF：钢铁 ETF（515210） 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、海外贸易摩擦加剧等风险 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 市场策略 调整压力加大，等待更好布局时机 | 接 受 震 荡 ， 拥 抱 中 盘 蓝 筹 ： 朝 闻 道 | 2025-12-14 | | --- | --- | | 20251215 | | | 以守代攻，择时而动：朝闻道 20251212 | 2025-12-11 | | 胜率提升，震荡向上：朝闻道 20251210 | 2025-12-09 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 增量政策效果有待显现 风险提示 ⚫ "反内卷"下部分行业格局快速变化导致就业压力的风险。 | | 021-63326320 | | --- | --- | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 政策发力和科技融资需求拉动社融回暖： | 2025-12-14 | | --- | --- | | 11 月金融数据点评 | | | 政策更细化，方向更聚焦——学习中央经 | 2025-12-12 | | 济工作会议精神 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is accelerating, with significant developments in satellite terminal projects and successful satellite launches [2][10] - The synergy between satellite launches and ground terminal applications is expected to enhance the overall satellite internet industry [10][11] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to drive demand for unmanned and anti-unmanned equipment, deep-sea technology, and operational informatization, highlighting the sector's growth potential [15] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on commercial aerospace companies such as Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy), Haige Communication (002465, Buy), and others [7][15][16] - It also highlights opportunities in the aerospace propulsion and engine chain, new domains, military electronics, and military trade [15][16] Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index (Shenwan) rose by 2.80%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 0.08% [18][21] - The report notes that the defense and military sector ranked 2nd out of 31 in terms of weekly performance [21] Key Developments - The successful launch of multiple low-orbit satellites within a week indicates a trend towards rapid network deployment becoming the norm [13][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of ground terminal projects as critical components in the satellite communication system, facilitating user access and service [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the sustained upward trend of copper, gold, and aluminum driven by industrial logic, despite uncertainties regarding future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][14]. - It suggests that the primary driver for non-ferrous metal pricing will shift from interest rate expectations to industrial demand growth, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [9][14]. - The report highlights the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased liquidity from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase program, which may weaken the dollar's credit [9][14]. - It notes that tight supply conditions are expected to support copper prices in the medium term, with significant inventory shortages in non-American regions [9][15]. - The aluminum sector is poised to benefit from the accelerated industrialization of aluminum as a substitute for copper in air conditioning systems, driven by rising copper prices [9][15]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report anticipates a super cycle for industrial metals, particularly copper, gold, and aluminum, supported by strong industrial demand [9][14]. - It recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the gold sector, particularly companies with improving production metrics [9][14]. - For copper, it highlights companies with significant resource reserves and ongoing production expansion as attractive investment targets [9][15]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, leading to pressure on steel profitability [16][20]. - Weekly rebar consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.40% decline compared to the previous week and a 14.55% drop year-on-year [20]. - Steel prices have shown a slight overall decline, with the average price index for common steel dropping by 1.14% [32][33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth in production and sales [41]. - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen, reflecting increased demand and supply constraints in the market [46][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry, indicating an expectation of returns that outperform the market benchmark by over 5% [5][13]. Core Insights - The optimization and continuation of the "Two New" policies are expected to activate greater consumer potential in the home appliance sector. The policies aim to stimulate demand through measures such as large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [8]. - The domestic sales driven by government subsidies are showing marginal slowdown, but the ongoing policies are anticipated to provide sustained demand stimulation in both product and service consumption [8]. - The report highlights that the impact of Mexico's proposed tariffs on Chinese home appliance companies is limited, as the revenue contribution from this market is relatively small [8]. - The market share of Miniled TVs is on the rise, with RGB-Miniled technology expected to lead the next generation of display technology upgrades, enhancing the competitive edge of Chinese brands in the global market [8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Domestic sales are expected to benefit from the "Two New" policy, with leading white goods companies likely to gain more from trade-in programs due to their higher efficiency and mature management processes [3]. - Key investment themes include: - Leading companies with higher operational efficiency and mature overseas production layouts, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual, are recommended for stable allocation [3]. - The long-term focus on overseas expansion is emphasized, with Stone Technology highlighted as a potential beneficiary [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for a second growth curve, such as Anfu Technology, are also noted [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the coal industry [6] Core Insights - The focus is on the investment opportunities in the coking coal sector, particularly as current coking coal prices are lower than thermal coal prices, and some coking coal stocks are trading below their net asset value [3][65] - The report highlights that the market's pessimistic expectations for coking coal stocks are already reflected in their prices, suggesting a potential for left-side positioning in this sector [3][65] - The long-term contract prices for thermal coal at production sites are expected to stabilize prices and reduce volatility, with specific stocks like Shaanxi Coal and Zhongmei Energy being recommended [3][65] Industry Overview - The report notes that the coking coal downstream is about to begin seasonal inventory replenishment, while the thermal coal downstream has largely completed its replenishment [8] - Current coking coal futures prices are significantly lower than thermal coal prices, with the ratio of coking coal futures to thermal coal prices at a historical low [8][27] - The coal mining operating rates remain low compared to the same period last year, indicating supply constraints [30][29] Key Events - A recent meeting by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need for central enterprises to focus on core responsibilities and resist "involution" competition, which may impact the coal sector's operational strategies [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of coking coal futures was significantly lower than that of thermal coal, indicating a potential for price recovery in the coking coal market [8][27] - The report indicates that the inventory levels at major ports are high, which may influence future price movements in the coal market [37][40]

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a "first dip, then rise" pattern next week, presenting a favorable opportunity for positioning before the year-end market [3][13]. Market Analysis - After a high on Monday, the market entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, indicating significant investor divergence. The recent developments, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the economic work conference, aligned with expectations, providing more certainty and potentially lowering risk assessments. The upcoming "super central bank week" and Japan's interest rate trends may introduce uncertainties that could temporarily suppress risk evaluations [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of extreme risk styles is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to emerge in mid-cap blue-chip stocks, which are anticipated to rise again after a four-year lull [5][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been dormant for years, is approaching a turning point. Stocks in this sector, such as mid-sized liquor, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care, are expected to rebound due to price corrections and supply constraints [6][16]. 2. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic minor metals (like antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, alongside traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [6][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is gaining strength, with expectations for continued event-driven catalysts, particularly in reusable rockets and accelerated industry IPOs [7][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: After a prolonged adjustment, the nuclear fusion sector is beginning to rebound, with anticipated industrial catalysts and a shift from theoretical research to engineering practice, suggesting significant future investment demand [7][17]. - **Consumer Sector**: Recent government initiatives to boost consumption indicate that policies aimed at improving domestic demand may become a central theme in 2026, particularly in service consumption [7][17]. - **Semiconductors**: Anticipated expansions in domestic wafer fabrication and the capitalization of leading domestic storage chip manufacturers present opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials [8][18]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, with structural growth in demand and supply constraints providing upward price elasticity for related commodities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, new energy upstream, and chemicals [8][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, with a total production quota of 797,844 tons, an increase of 5,962 tons from 2025. The internal use quota will increase by 4,502 tons [8] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, with significant annual increases observed, such as R134a increasing by 43.75% year-on-year [8] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to remain rigid due to quota constraints, while demand continues to grow, driven by increasing production of air conditioning units and automobiles [8] Summary by Sections Production Quota - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 797,844 tons, with internal use quota at 394,082 tons. The main increases are in R134a (3,242 tons) and R245fa (2,918 tons), while R143a, R227ea, and R152a see reductions [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the prices for major third-generation refrigerants are as follows: R134a at 57,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, and R410 at 54,000 CNY/ton, with notable monthly and annual growth rates [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic air conditioning production from January to October 2025 reached 23,034 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%. The automotive sector also saw a production increase of 11.00% during the same period, indicating a robust demand for refrigerants [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating a potential for returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently in a favorable position for investment, with a focus on valuation before performance. The report suggests that despite recent adjustments in the sector, there is fundamental support for new consumption trends, and stock prices have absolute upside potential [7][4]. - Short-term trading strategies should focus on "individual stock improvement" and "turnaround opportunities," recommending specific stocks such as Miaokelan Duo (600882), Jinshiyuan (603369), Gujing Gongjiu (000596), and Shede Liquor (600702) for buying [3]. - Structural dividends are expected to continue, with recommendations for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) and Yanjinpuzi (002847) [3]. - The report highlights a stabilization in demand or market share, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Luzhou Laojiao (000568), Qingdao Beer (600600), and Yili Group (600887) for buying [3]. Summary by Sections - **Market Conditions**: The food and beverage industry is experiencing pressure on both volume and price, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors and consumer sentiment. High-end consumption is performing better than low-end, with emerging channels outpacing traditional ones. Categories like snacks and beverages are expected to maintain relative prosperity, while dairy and beer are projected to see structural growth [7][4]. - **Mid-term Trends**: New consumption remains a key theme, with expanding demand in categories such as health foods and pet foods. Instant retail channels are showing high growth, although discount formats and high-end retail are slowing down compared to traditional supermarkets [7][4]. - **Future Outlook**: The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will transition from valuation-driven growth to performance-driven growth in 2026, with expectations of a performance bottom in the first quarter of 2026 for the liquor segment [7][4].