宏观经济 | 专题报告 美国：科技驱动下的"无就业增长"经济 初探 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面走向的不确定性。降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性，影响风险偏好和商品价格。 假设条件发生变化影响测算结果的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 20 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | TACO2.0 交易展望： — — 海外札记 | 2025-10-13 | | --- | --- | | 20251013 | | | 美国政府关门：数据 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 调整空间有限，保持信心 策略周报 20251019 研究结论 ⚫ 指数调整空间有限，保持信心 我们认为指数调整空间有限，保持横盘震荡、继续走强的判断。本周市场整体回 调，主要原因可能是短期资金年内止盈动力较强和面对短期中美的不确定性时选择 观望。我们认为资金止盈的因素是短期的，权益市场的吸引力和投资者的长期信心 没有变化。中美方面，我们预期后续局势会收敛，整体可控，对市场不利影响有 限。 ⚫ 主题方面，继续保持对科技的最高关注 我们认为主题投资机会主要集中在科技成长，短期关注低位的自主可控（软件 等）、十五五规划相关科技（量子科技、深海经济和脑机）和创新药，上周我们提 示规避的装备类和前期涨幅较大的科技公司，本周回调较多，我们认为持续的回调 会提升相关板块中核心公司的吸引力，逐渐吸引资金开始重新配置。 ⚫ 非科技方向，看好战略金属，黄金>稀土等小金属>铜 我们看好顺序依次为黄金、稀土等小金属和铜。黄金方面，法币信用恶化与避险双 重利好会持续驱动，短期虽然金价有回调风险，看好中期价格继续维持上行趋势。 稀土方面，物项和技术出口管制升级，板块战略价值有望持续提升。铜方面，在全 球电网升级、 ...

基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 IMO 会议投票难产，但不改绿色低碳产业 发展趋势 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 我们看好在绿色聚酯产业中已领先布局关键节点的万凯新材(301216，买入)。短期 受贸易争端影响较小的农药制剂环节，如润丰股份(301035，买入)、国光股份 (002749，买入)、海利尔(603639，买入)等。同时也看好"反内卷"政策预期驱动 下，石化与化工行业有望出现景气复苏，主要相关标的包括中国石化(600028，买 入)、恒力石化(600346，买入)、荣盛石化(002493，买入)、万华化学(600309，买 入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)；。 风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 19 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | | | wanl ...

特步国际 01368.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 ⚫ 我们维持对公司的盈利预测，考虑到股本的变动，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益 分别为 0.49、0.56 元和 0.62 元。参考可比公司，给予公司 2025 年 15 倍 PE 估值， 对应目标价 8.01 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 行业竞争加剧，可选消费复苏不及预期，新品牌增长低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14,346 | 13,577 | 14,452 | 15,795 | 17,244 | | 同比增长(%) | 10.9% | -5.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,580 | 1,966 | 1,980 | 2,309 | 2,593 | | 同比增长(%) | 7.9% | 24.4% | 0.7% | 16.6% | 12.3% | | 归属母公司净利 ...

风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动；假设条件变化影响测 算结果。 国家/地区 中国 行业 农业行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 19 日 看好（维持） 农业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 9 月猪企出栏减量，均重回升 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20251013-20251019） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化， 助力未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498， 买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)、巨星农牧(603477，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块， 生猪存栏量回升提振饲料、动保需求，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向 下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，未评级)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好， 大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评 级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(00 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the risk of rising coal prices is limited, and pessimistic expectations regarding electricity prices are easing [2] - The utility sector is showing defensive attributes, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [8] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity commodities as the market becomes more complex [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report expresses optimism for the utility sector, highlighting that low interest rates and policy encouragement for long-term capital investment make dividend assets a worthwhile long-term allocation [8] - It identifies specific investment targets within thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind/solar energy sectors, suggesting companies like Guodian Power (国电电力), China Yangtze Power (长江电力), and China General Nuclear Power (中国广核) as potential investments [8] Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant increases in spot electricity prices in Shandong, Guangdong, and Shanxi, with year-on-year increases of 27.1%, 34.2%, and 55.1% respectively [11] - It highlights that coal prices have risen sharply due to abnormal weather conditions, but the upward price potential is expected to be limited in the future [8] - The report also mentions that the average outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir has increased significantly, indicating improved hydropower generation conditions [39] Market Performance - The utility sector index has outperformed the broader market indices, with a decline of only 0.7% compared to a 2.2% drop in the CSI 300 index [46] - Within the utility sub-sectors, hydropower showed the highest weekly increase of 1.7%, while wind and solar sectors experienced declines [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The multi-modal industry is experiencing rapid iteration this year, with improvements in both lower and upper limits of technology, impacting product and commercialization [2] - There is a trend of product path differentiation, with companies like Google and Kuaishou focusing on different user segments, leading to accelerated commercial applications [2] - The industry is expected to expand significantly due to increased user growth, payment penetration, and commercialization [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The multi-modal technology sector is seeing significant advancements, with major players like OpenAI and Google updating their video models, enhancing capabilities in narrative and visual quality [7] - The introduction of OpenAI's Sora app has rapidly increased user engagement, indicating a shift towards consumer-oriented applications [7] Investment Recommendations - Emphasis is placed on vertical multi-modal AI application opportunities, particularly those with international expansion strategies, which may experience faster growth [3] - Recommended stocks include Kuaishou-W (01024, Buy), Meitu Inc. (01357, Buy), and Wanjun Technology (300624, Not Rated) [3] - Attention is advised on major companies like Alibaba-W (09988, Buy) and Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy) for their potential revenue growth and valuation restructuring [3]

机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 贸易摩擦影响有限，人形机器人迎来布局 时机 ——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 尽管短期贸易摩擦加剧，但我们看到国内零部件厂商已经投资布局海外产能，并且机器 人也将进入量产阶段，所以我们认为贸易摩擦的影响有限，人形机器人将有望迎来布局 时机。我们认为在国内外人形机器人龙头公司的共同推动下，行业有望在明年进入量产 阶段。站在量产的未来看今天，我们认为具备优秀制造和管理能力的零部件企业更加受 益。相关标的：拓普集团(601689，买入)、三花智控(002050，买入)、五洲新春 (603667，买入)、恒立液压(601100，未评级)、震裕科技(300953，买入)。 风险提示 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 厂商生产不及预期、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放 缓、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期、订单执行效果低于预期、产品 降价风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 ...

Investment Trends - The core contradiction in investment this year is a significant decline in "expansion" investment, which has decreased by 40 percentage points compared to the end of last year, dropping from 33.6% to -6.2% in the first eight months of this year[10] - "New construction" investment has a larger weight (estimated at about 70%) and is projected to show a small increase, reflecting changes in the real estate sector[7] - The total amount of "two重" funds from special long-term bonds is estimated at 700 billion yuan, accounting for 1.4 percentage points of the total fixed asset investment of over 50 trillion yuan in 2023[19] Economic Outlook - The expected support from special long-term bonds in 2024 and 2025 is likely to exceed this year's impact, alleviating growth pressure on expansion investments[7] - The decline in investment is not necessarily negative; it reflects a more rational allocation of resources and the ongoing transition between old and new growth drivers[23] - The overall investment growth rate is expected to stabilize, with a potential slight negative growth this year, but a rebound is anticipated next year[7] Risks and Challenges - Risks include the potential for export growth to exceed expectations due to year-end demand, geopolitical tensions affecting global industrial patterns, and the impact of "anti-involution" policies on domestic demand[43] - Data calculation errors may affect the accuracy of conclusions drawn from investment statistics, particularly in fixed asset investment[43]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 政策效果持续扩散，核心 CPI 与 PPI 同比 继续上升 2025 年 9 月通胀点评 研究结论 风险提示 ⚫ 政策效果不及预期的风险；地缘冲突演绎导致大宗商品价格波动超预期的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 16 日 | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | --- | --- | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 数据来源：同花顺，东方证券研究所 数据来源：同花顺，东方证券研究所 | TACO2.0 交易展望： — — 海外札记 | 2025-10-13 | | --- | --- | | 2025 ...