客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望 改善 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到 25 全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，我们调整 2025-2027 年 EPS 预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61 元（此前为 25-26 年为 0.63/0.69 元），根据可比公司 26 年 32 倍 PE 对应目标价 17.28 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 若宏观出行需求不及预期、极端天气/运力约束影响旺季接待，或茶业等新业务推进与盈 利转化慢于预期，可能导致收入与利润修复不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,045 | 1,013 | 973 | 1,034 | 1,090 | | 同比增长 (%) | 142.3% | -3.0% | -4.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 135 | 218 | 230 | 285 | 334 | | 同比增长 (%) | 168.4% | 61 ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 27 日 朝闻道 20260128 市场策略 于震荡中护慢牛，自中盘处取超额 风格策略 中盘蓝筹压舱，科技成长轮动 行业策略 电子：算力需求强劲，AI 投资机会由点及面 主题策略 锂电设备：储能需求高增，行业扩产延续 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利等风险 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 震荡依旧，结构为王：朝闻道 20260126 2026-01-25 慢牛预期强化，把握中盘蓝筹：朝闻道 20260123 2026-01-21 指数维持震荡，方向还在中盘蓝筹：朝闻 道 20260121 2026-01-20 ⚫ 目前市场值得关注的特征是内稳外乱下的风险评价分化，对大势而言，主基调仍然 会维持横盘震荡，略微走强。内稳外乱 ...

客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望 改善 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到 25 全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，我们调整 2025-2027 年 EPS 预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61 元（此前为 25-26 年为 0.63/0.69 元），根据可比公司 26 年 32 倍 PE 对应目标价 17.28 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 若宏观出行需求不及预期、极端天气/运力约束影响旺季接待，或茶业等新业务推进与盈 利转化慢于预期，可能导致收入与利润修复不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,045 | 1,013 | 973 | 1,034 | 1,090 | | 同比增长 (%) | 142.3% | -3.0% | -4.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 135 | 218 | 230 | 285 | 334 | | 同比增长 (%) | 168.4% | 61 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market had a good performance last week except for a significant valuation correction on Tuesday. The high sentiment in the equity market remains the biggest support for convertible bonds, and there was a behavior of bargain - hunting allocation on Tuesday [6][9]. - As the number of convertible bonds below 130 yuan decreases, convertible bonds enter the deep - water area. High valuations are expected to continue in an equity bull market, but potential losses from valuation fluctuations should be watched out for. If there was under - allocation before, it is recommended to wait for a correction to make allocations. Attention should be paid to newly issued convertible bonds, those whose redemption is waived, and those whose shareholders have not yet reduced their holdings [6][9]. - The sentiment in the equity market remained high last week. Although the proportion of margin trading purchases declined significantly under the margin policy, the central bank's targeted interest rate cut and a net MLF injection of 70 billion yuan in January supplemented market liquidity. The overall performance was similar to the past two weeks, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong and heavy - weight stocks facing significant selling pressure. External events suppressed overseas markets, increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets. A - shares rose against the trend in the global market last week. In the medium - to - long term, the upward logic remains unchanged, but in the short term, there is a continuous game between regulators and the market regarding heavy - weight value and growth themes. A sideways shock with a slight upward trend is expected, and the two - end market of technology + dividends will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Convertible Bond Fluctuations Are Not Weaker Than Underlying Stocks, Grasp the Trading Rhythm in the Valuation Deep - Water Area - The convertible bond market had a good performance last week except on Tuesday when the valuation corrected sharply. The valuation shows a trend of rapid decline and slow rise. The high - sentiment equity market supports convertible bonds, and there was bargain - hunting on Tuesday [9]. - With fewer convertible bonds below 130 yuan, they enter the deep - water area. High valuations may continue in a bull market, but valuation risks should be noted. Wait for a correction to allocate if under - allocated before. Focus on newly issued, redemption - waived, and non - shareholder - reduced convertible bonds [9]. - The equity market was high - spirited last week. Despite the drop in margin trading purchases, central bank policies supplemented liquidity. Small - and medium - cap stocks were strong, heavy - weight stocks faced selling pressure. A - shares rose against the global trend. In the short term, there is a game between regulators and the market, and the market is expected to shift to mid - cap blue - chips [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Slight Decline in Trading Volume, Valuation Continues to Rise 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Closed Higher, Trading Volume Declined - The equity market cooled slightly last week. Most broad - based indexes rose, such as the CSI 500 (up 4.34%), CSI 2000 (up 4.04%), etc., while the ChiNext Index (down 0.34%), CSI 300 (down 0.62%), and SSE 50 (down 1.54%) fell. Construction materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the rise in industries, while banking, communication, and non - bank finance led the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased significantly from 3.46227 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten rising convertible bonds last week were Jiamei Convertible Bond, Fuxin Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Jiamei Convertible Bond, Fuxin Convertible Bond, etc. were more active [12]. 2.2 Slight Decline in Convertible Bond Trading Volume, Good Performance of Medium - and Low - Rated, High - Price Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds rose significantly last week. The 100 - yuan premium rate decreased and then reached a new high, and the average daily trading volume decreased to 87.919 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92%, the median conversion price increased 4.5% to 110.8 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate decreased 0.9% to 32.2%. Medium - and low - rated, high - price convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated, large - cap convertible bonds performed weakly [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [6]. Core Insights - Recent signs of recovery in certain cities' transaction volumes should not be hastily interpreted as a definitive market stabilization. The report highlights two types of policies that may influence the market: interest rate cuts and direct financial support for distressed entities [1][2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has introduced measures to enhance urban renewal policies, which include a flexible five-year transition period for revitalizing existing assets [3]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in new housing sales for 2025, with a reported sales area of 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a sales value of 8.4 trillion yuan, down 12.6% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Recovery - Some core cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, have shown significant increases in second-hand housing transactions, with Shanghai's sales exceeding 16,000 units for three consecutive months and Shenzhen's sales reaching 4,000 units in January, reflecting a year-on-year decline narrowing to 9% [2]. Policy Impact - The report anticipates that the market's recovery may be influenced by several factors, including previous price declines leading to panic selling, preemptive demand due to the late timing of the Spring Festival, and a positive wealth effect from the stock market [2]. Sales and Construction Data - The report notes that the decline in new housing sales is expected to continue, with a projected decrease in new construction area by 20.4% in 2025, although the decline is slightly less than in 2024. The completion area is also expected to drop by 18.1% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment opportunities: high-quality developers with low historical burdens, commercial real estate operators benefiting from a "Matthew Effect," and real estate brokerage platforms that leverage scale and brand advantages [5].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the risk assessment for the US and Japan is rising, while the domestic risk assessment in China is steadily declining, making low-risk equity assets like A-shares relatively superior [7][20][30] - Gold and strategic metals within commodities continue to hold investment value, benefiting from the global low-risk characteristics of equity assets [7][20][30] - The report highlights that the trend for risk assets remains strong, with A-shares, commodities, and gold showing robust performance, while US stocks are experiencing overall fluctuations [21][30] Group 2 - In the expectation dimension, domestic supply remains strong while demand is weak, indicating a need for more support for domestic consumption [14][15] - The uncertainty surrounding US policies is increasing, leading to a rise in the risk assessment of dollar-denominated assets [16] - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate, but the fiscal outlook is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the dissolution of the House of Representatives [17]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Davos Forum highlighted tensions among U.S. allies, with notable figures like Canadian Prime Minister Carney calling for a reassessment of relationships with the U.S.[7] - The market's short-term focus is on Trump's negotiations with NATO regarding Greenland, with the VIX index peaking around 20, indicating limited market volatility[7]. - The forum's discussions suggest a potential shift towards "de-dollarization," benefiting precious metals and commodities in the medium term[7]. Group 2: U.S. Allies' Strategies - U.S. allies are considering reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, which may lead to a depreciation of the dollar due to increased political risk associated with U.S. assets[7]. - The ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and declining fiscal discipline contribute to a market perception of "dollar debasement," favoring investments in physical assets[7]. - A long-term transformation in U.S. allies' relationships could lead to increased investments in Chinese assets, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi[7]. Group 3: Implications for Chinese Enterprises - A reassessment of U.S.-China relations by U.S. allies may open new markets for Chinese enterprises, enhancing their profit margins abroad[7]. - The potential for reduced political risks in overseas markets could facilitate greater access for Chinese companies, previously hindered by U.S. influence[7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, long - term bonds in the bond market performed well, with trading sentiment significantly boosted. The main driving factors were central bank fund support and stock market consolidation. The 30 - year bond had an independent market. Medium - and long - term credit bonds continued to generate excess returns. The yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend. Looking forward, the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term bond market continuation requires more catalysts [5][8]. - There is little difference in the short - and medium - term of credit bonds. The short - term can continue with carry trades. The 2 - 3 - year period is the current main focus for funds after liability - side repair, but it's difficult to find returns. In the medium - to long - term, there are some differences. The yield curve steepness of some 3 - 4 - year entities has increased, and there are convex points for some entities. The 5 - year and above ultra - long - term credit bonds are niche products, and institutions with stable liability sides can focus on coupon value [5][8]. - For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, medium - and long - term ones performed well last week but faced increased profit - taking sentiment. The catch - up market this year may be near the end. There is still some space for 4 - 5 - year bonds, but valuation fluctuations may be large [5][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Potential Convex Points in Medium - Term Credit Bonds - Long - term bonds in the bond market performed well last week. The main driving factors were central bank fund support and stock market consolidation. Medium - and long - term credit bonds continued to generate excess returns. The yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend. The bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term bond market continuation requires more catalysts [5][8]. - Short - term credit bonds can continue with carry trades. The 2 - 3 - year period is the main focus for funds after liability - side repair but has limited returns. Some 3 - 4 - year entities have convex points, and 5 - year and above ultra - long - term credit bonds are suitable for institutions with stable liability sides [5][8]. - Medium - and long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds performed well last week but faced profit - taking. The catch - up market may end soon. There is space for 4 - 5 - year bonds but with large valuation fluctuations [5][9]. 2 Credit Bond Weekly Review: Comprehensive Credit Repair and Gradual Strengthening 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From January 19 to January 25, 2026, Sunshine City Group failed to pay the principal and interest of "H1 Yangcheng 01". Moody's downgraded the ratings of Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group and related entities. Several companies had negative events such as debt defaults, explosions, and regulatory penalties [12][14][15]. 2.2 Primary Issuance: Net Financing Returns to Over 10 Billion, and Coupon Rates of High - Grade New Bonds Drop Significantly - From January 19 to January 25, 2026, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 331.4 billion yuan, with total repayment of 187.9 billion yuan, and net financing of 143.5 billion yuan. The number of cancelled or postponed bond issuances remained low. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades decreased by 21bp and increased by 3bp respectively [16][17]. 2.3 Secondary Trading: Positive Sentiment in Medium - and Long - Term Credit Bonds - Last week, the valuations of credit bonds across all grades and terms declined by about 3bp on average. The risk - free rate also decreased but with a smaller margin, and credit spreads narrowed slightly. The 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y term spreads of all grades narrowed by about 2bp on average, and the AA - AAA grade spread had narrow fluctuations. Provincial credit spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed by about 3bp on average, and industry spreads of industrial bonds also narrowed slightly, except for a 2bp widening in the real estate industry. The weekly turnover rate increased to 2.02%, and the issuers of the top - ten turnover bonds were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. Credit bonds of Country Garden and Vanke had discounts of over 10% in trading [19][24][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The management adjustment at China Star Network is expected to accelerate the commercialization of satellite internet, with plans to deploy 13,000 low-orbit satellites between 2026 and 2030 [11][12] - The commercial space industry is projected to achieve 50 launches in 2025, marking a significant turning point in 2026, driven by policy support and advancements in reusable rocket technology [13][16] - The report emphasizes continued optimism for commercial aerospace, large aircraft, new combat capabilities, and military trade as key growth areas [16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry is experiencing a positive trend, with a 4.37% increase in the industry index, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [18][19] Commercial Aerospace - The management changes at China Star Network reflect a strategic focus on fulfilling satellite constellation deployment goals, with a critical period from 2027 to 2029 for compliance with ITU regulations [12] - The rapid growth in commercial space launches is highlighted, with 50 launches expected in 2025, representing 54% of total space launches in China [13][15] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment targets within the commercial aerospace sector, including: - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) - National Science and Technology Military Industry (688543, Not Rated) - Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated) [16] - The report also highlights potential in the large aircraft and military trade sectors, suggesting a broad development space for military enterprises [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records in 2026 [12] - Zinc is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the potential for precious metals to lead industrial metals in price increases, driven by a breakdown in the gold-silver ratio and a late-stage long-term debt cycle [7][12] - Specific investment opportunities include companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and others in the precious metals sector [7] Zinc Sector - The report identifies zinc as a critical material in the context of re-industrialization, with supply constraints and increasing demand expected to drive prices higher [13] Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply chain security [13] Steel Sector - The steel industry is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low period before the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production and consumption metrics indicate a slight increase in iron output but a decrease in rebar demand, reflecting a mixed outlook for the sector [19][26] New Energy Metals - The report notes significant increases in lithium and cobalt prices, with production metrics showing substantial year-on-year growth in lithium carbonate output [37][46] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures indicating continued growth in the sector [41] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the overall upward trend in industrial metal prices, driven by political policy risks and supply reduction expectations [56] - Specific metrics indicate rising copper production and declining refining fees, suggesting a tightening supply environment [57]