| --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | 证 券 研 究 报 告 评级： 家空内销边际强改善，重视三季报内销韧性品种 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 家用电器业《双十一叠加国补，大促销售有望超 预期》2024.10.20 家用电器业《政策刺激显效，头部品牌受益明 显》2024.10.18 家用电器业《主线重回内销，把握政策发力、格 局改善契机》2024.10.13 家用电器业《出口延续高增态势，期待内销刺激 效果》2024.10.12 家用电器业《多重政策助内需改善，双轮驱动攻 守兼备》2024.10.08 ——家电行业 W42 周报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------| | | [table_Authors] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the overseas technology sector [2] Core Insights - Demand for advanced processes and AI remains strong, with continuous growth in computing power engines. TSMC reported a revenue of $23.5 billion in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36%, with a gross margin of 57.8%, up 3.5 percentage points from the previous year. The demand for 3nm chips is high, and the 2nm capacity is expected to exceed that of 3nm [4][8] - AI revenue is projected to account for over 10% of TSMC's total revenue in 2024. ASML's Q3 2024 revenue reached €7.47 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for ArFi lithography machines [4][8] - OpenAI is undergoing a significant personnel restructuring, with key executives leaving and top AI talent from Microsoft joining OpenAI [4][8] - AMD launched the MI325X chip, outperforming NVIDIA's H200 chip by 40% in inference performance. AMD expects AI chip revenue to reach $4.5 billion in 2024, with the overall AI chip market projected to exceed $500 billion by 2028 [4][9] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.11%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.86% from October 13 to October 19, 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.96%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.80% during the same period [10][13] Weekly AI Industry News - SpaceX successfully recovered its Starship for the first time during its fifth test flight, marking a significant milestone in its launch operations [24] - Game Science has entered the top ranks of Steam publishers, surpassing $1 billion in total revenue [25] - Samsung Electronics faced a significant market decline, with its market value dropping nearly 90 trillion KRW due to continuous foreign selling [26] - Boeing announced plans to lay off 17,000 employees and delay the delivery of its first 777X aircraft [27] - The scale of China's core AI industry continues to grow, with over 6 billion registered users [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication equipment and services industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid advancement of the industry driven by intensive policy releases related to data elements, with a focus on establishing a national data standard system by the end of 2026 [3]. - The upcoming quarterly reports are expected to provide significant guidance on the annual profitability of specific sectors and companies, with expectations of continued strong growth in the overseas computing supply chain and stable growth in the domestic telecommunications market [3]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on the value of optoelectronic interconnection, considering state-owned enterprises for stable growth and high dividends, and exploring new investment themes in low-altitude economy, satellite communication, and vehicle-mounted communication [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Perspective - The 2024 OCP Summit was held, discussing new AI hardware technologies, which are expected to catalyze advancements in the industry [6]. - Major companies like Nvidia contributed designs to the OCP Summit, indicating a collaborative effort in the development of new technologies [6]. 2. Weekly Market Review 2.1. Communication Sector Performance - The communication sector outperformed the market, with a 5.20% increase compared to a 0.98% rise in the CSI 300 index [7][9]. - The communication equipment and services sub-sectors also showed positive trends, increasing by 5.84% and 3.83% respectively [8]. 2.2. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included gains of 43.29% for HaiNengDa and 34.12% for DaFu Technology, while ST TianYu saw a decline of 11.04% [10][11]. 3. Upcoming Announcements - Key announcements include quarterly report disclosures from several companies, such as ZTE and Hengtong Optic-Electric, scheduled for the week of October 21-27 [12][13]. 4. Lock-up Expiration Reminders - Several companies in the communication sector have upcoming lock-up expirations, including Hengtong Optic-Electric and Meili Xin, which may impact stock liquidity [14][15]. 5. Major Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for major companies, with several companies rated as "Overweight" based on their projected performance [16].

序号 行业 本周观点 分析师 总量研究 2024年三季度GDP同比增速较二季度小幅回落，但9月经济数据显示工业生产回升,内需也有回暖,其中专项债放量对基 建投资的支撑和以旧换新政策对消费的支撑构成稳增长的主要抓手。在9月底宣布的一揽子政策的效果持续发挥下，四季度 宏观 汪浩/黄汝南 1 GDP有望企稳回升，预计全年GDP目标在"5%左右"的下沿实现。但在实际增长目标实现之外,更应关注名义增长回升的 动力。 9月中旬以来，港股市场快速上涨，在国庆假期后回吐部分涨幅，人民币汇率出现相似的走势。驱动港股近期走强的主因是 2 海外宏观 国内政策预期增强叠加海外年内降息预期幅度扩大，但其后海外减息预期降温，港股市场回吐部分涨幅。人民币汇率和港 周浩 股走势相联动，背后有相似的驱动。国内政策持续推出，海外降息趋势确定，港股市场未来走势以向上为主。 决策层对经济形势与资本市场的态度转变，是股市启动和风险偏好提振的基石，中线有望N型走势。短期政策分歧减小, 3 策略 方奕 行情迈入震荡延展,成长题材与中字头占优。 全球央行步入宽松周期，黄金期现价格创历史新高。美国经济显韧性叠加部分企业三季报超预期，分子端表现强劲，此外 4 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the US Robotaxi industry, consistent with the previous rating [2] Core Views - The US Robotaxi industry is advancing in a spiral, with companies like Waymo already operating commercially in certain regions. The industry is expected to accelerate further due to increased collaboration with Uber and the launch of Tesla's Cybercab [3] - Robotaxi development will enhance consumer awareness of autonomous driving, improve technology through mileage accumulation, and boost sales for automakers like Tesla while accelerating the growth of the domestic autonomous driving supply chain [4] - The report recommends investing in automakers and components suppliers with high adoption rates of advanced autonomous driving technologies, as well as Tesla's supply chain [4] Market Overview - The primary target markets for Robotaxi in the US are ride-hailing and traditional taxis, with a combined market size exceeding $700 billion in 2023 [4] - The US ride-hailing market was estimated at $453-519 billion in 2023, while the traditional taxi market was around $238 billion. The delivery and logistics markets were significantly larger, with $1979 billion for parcel delivery and $2875 billion for instant delivery [4][12] - Waymo and Cruise are leading players, with Waymo deploying around 700 vehicles and offering over 100,000 services weekly. Cruise faced setbacks due to accidents but is gradually resuming operations [4] Key Players and Developments - Waymo has partnered with FCA, Jaguar, Zeekr, and Hyundai to develop Robotaxi models and is expanding its services to Texas and Georgia by 2025 [4] - Tesla introduced the Cybercab, a futuristic Robotaxi with no steering wheel, expected to enter mass production by 2026-2027 [4][13] - Cruise, after facing regulatory challenges, has returned to traditional vehicle designs and plans to collaborate with Uber in 2025 [4][13] Regulatory and Operational Landscape - Robotaxi operations in the US are concentrated in specific regions, primarily in California, Arizona, and Texas, with California being the most advanced, allowing fee-based services without safety drivers [4][14] - As of October 2024, 32 companies have received permits for testing with safety drivers in California, while 6 have permits for driverless testing, and 3 have deployment permits [14] - Federal and state governments collaborate on autonomous vehicle regulations, with the federal government focusing on safety frameworks and state governments handling implementation [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the wholesale and retail industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the retail sales growth in September exceeded expectations, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [2]. - The total retail sales in September increased by 3.2% year-on-year, compared to 2.1% in August, and a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy on consumer goods sales, particularly in automobiles and home appliances [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical expectations, recommending sectors such as dining, hotels, and human resources services [3]. - Vertical O2O companies show improved competitive dynamics, with potential for both volume and price increases, recommending companies like Tuhu-W [3]. - Education sector shows signs of bottoming out, with recommendations for undervalued stocks like Excellent Education and Thinking Education [3]. - Affordable overseas retail remains highly prosperous, recommending companies like Miniso and Small Commodity City [3]. - Continuous rise in tourism interest, with recommendations for travel-related companies such as Tongcheng Travel and Ctrip Group-S [3]. - The long-term logic of gold jewelry remains promising under the backdrop of the rise of domestic brands, recommending companies like Lao Pu Gold and Cai Bai Co [3]. Retail Sales Data - In September, retail sales of limited above units for automobiles grew by 0.4%, reversing a six-month decline, while home appliances saw a growth of 20.5%, accelerating by 17.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The report notes that online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 25.7% of total retail sales, with a slight increase in e-commerce penetration [3]. - The report provides detailed month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates for various categories, indicating a mixed performance across different sectors [3][12][15]. Key Company Forecasts - The report includes profit forecasts for key companies in the retail sector, with several companies rated as "Overweight" based on their projected earnings growth [17][20]. - Specific companies highlighted include Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and Miniso, all of which are expected to show strong performance in the coming years [17][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the robotics industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - Tesla's Optimus robot has shown significant advancements in autonomy, capable of visual obstacle avoidance, mapping, and interacting with humans. The year ahead is expected to be pivotal for humanoid robot mass production [2][6]. - Domestic companies are also making strides, with Kepler's K2 humanoid robot showcasing advanced capabilities and Yushu's G1 robot demonstrating impressive jumping ability [2][13]. - The financing landscape for robotics is active, with notable investments in companies like Shanghai Zhuoyide and Xingdong Jiyuan, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth [2][16]. Industry News and Company Dynamics - Tesla released a new video demonstrating the capabilities of the Optimus robot, highlighting its application in factory settings and its ability to assist human workers [6]. - Kawasaki Robotics introduced a new series of collaborative robots designed for various manufacturing applications, enhancing automation flexibility [9]. - Yushu Technology's G1 robot achieved a standing long jump of 1.4 meters, showcasing its advanced motion capabilities [13]. Financing Dynamics - Xingdong Jiyuan successfully completed a Pre-A round of financing totaling nearly 300 million yuan, aimed at accelerating the development of embodied intelligence technology and commercializing humanoid robots [16]. Investment Recommendations - Key components in the robotics supply chain, such as motors, reducers, sensors, and lead screws, are highlighted as areas of focus for investment. Recommended companies include: - Actuators and Motors: Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, Mingzhi Electric - Reducers: Zhongdali De, Shuanghuan Transmission - Motor Control Chips: Fengcai Technology - Sensors: Donghua Testing, Keli Sensor, Obsidian Light - Lead Screws: Best, Wuzhou Xinchun, Hengli Hydraulic, Changsheng Bearing - Lead Screw Equipment: Huachen Equipment, Rifa Precision Machinery, Qinchuan Machine Tool, Zhejiang Haideman, and Sijin Intelligent [2][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the new energy passenger vehicle industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to continue growing due to improved consumer confidence and the upcoming traditional peak season in Q4 [4]. - In September, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.231 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 48.1% and a month-on-month increase of 17.2% [4]. - The report highlights that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market has increased significantly, with retail penetration reaching 53.3%, up 16.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.231 million units, with a cumulative total of 7.901 million units from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.7% [4]. - Retail sales in September were 1.123 million units, with a cumulative total of 7.132 million units for the first nine months, marking a year-on-year increase of 37.4% [4]. - Exports in September reached 105,000 units, with a cumulative total of 968,000 units for the year, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.2% [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that all types of new energy vehicles, including pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and range-extended models, experienced both year-on-year and month-on-month sales growth in September [4]. - The report identifies 21 manufacturers with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 units in September, with BYD, Geely, and Tesla China leading the sales [4]. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks for the whole vehicle sector include JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [4]. - For the smart vehicle sector, recommended stocks include Xingyu Co., Kebo Da, Desay SV, Huayang Group, Huayi Technology, and Baolong Technology [4]. - For high-growth new energy-related stocks, recommended companies include Top Group, Shuanghuan Transmission, Ruihu Mould, Wuxi Zhenhua, Huguang Co., Songyuan Co., New Spring Co., Aikedi, and Yinlun Co. [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to 45.00 CNY from the previous 30.50 CNY [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve both revenue and profit growth due to successful progress in AI high-power power supply samples and localized delivery in its global production layout [2][10]. - The company has become the only mainland supplier for NVIDIA's GB200 product, which is anticipated to lead to bulk orders by 2025 [10]. - The company's revenue from power supply products reached 1.097 billion CNY in H1 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.05% [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8.11 billion CNY, 12.12 billion CNY, and 15.23 billion CNY respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20.1%, 49.4%, and 25.7% [11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 733 million CNY in 2024, 1.16 billion CNY in 2025, and 1.47 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 16.5%, 57.7%, and 26.9% respectively [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.45 CNY for 2024, 2.29 CNY for 2025, and 2.91 CNY for 2026 [11]. Market Data - The company's current stock price is 33.86 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 18.92 to 33.86 CNY [5]. - The total market capitalization is 17.068 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 504 million shares [5]. Balance Sheet Highlights - Shareholder equity stands at 4.668 billion CNY, with a net asset value per share of 9.26 CNY [6]. - The current net debt ratio is 10.78% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with the Morocco project starting to contribute incrementally from the end of September [6][7]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.29, 2.59, and 2.89 respectively, up from previous estimates of 2.11, 2.44, and 2.81 [7]. - The target price remains at 34.24, based on a PE ratio of 14.95 for 2024 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, and a net profit of 1.726 billion, up 73.72% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, total revenue was 2.23 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.82% [7]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 648 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 67.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.09% [7]. Production and Market Demand - The company reported a total tire production of 2.424 million units for the first three quarters of 2024, with year-on-year increases of 14.05% for total tires, 13.73% for semi-steel tires, and 26.10% for all-steel tires [7]. - The company continues to see strong demand in the European and American tire markets, with ongoing expansion into high-growth domestic markets [7]. Cost and Pricing Trends - The report notes limited impact from cost fluctuations, despite significant increases in shipping prices due to geopolitical factors [7]. - As of October 20, 2024, the average price of natural rubber was 17,400 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of 2.35% and a yearly increase of 28.89% [7]. Strategic Developments - The Morocco project is accelerating, with the factory officially starting production on September 30, 2024, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge [7]. - The company has positioned itself as a high-end supplier for major automotive brands, including Volkswagen and Audi [7].