股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.11 | --- | --- | |---------------------|-----------------| | | | | 刘越男 ( 分析师 ) | [table_Authors] | | | | | 021-38677706 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | | | S0880516030003 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | |------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 021-38038344 | | | suying@gtjas.com | | | S0880522110001 | | 本报告导读： 2024H1 业绩符合预期，大客户战略成效显著；公司业绩稳健，拟实施中期分红回报 股东。 投资要点： ——行动教育 2024H1 业绩点评 业绩符合预期，中期分红回报股东 行动教育(605098) 教育产业 [Table_Industry] /社会服务 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------- ...

——商社行业周报（2024.08.02-08.11） | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|-----------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 宋小寒(研究助理) | | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880122070054 | 本报告导读： 教培公司中报业绩亮眼，看好行业格局改善，全国及地方龙头机构优势凸显。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资观点：继续重点推荐垂直 O2O+出海。①互联网龙头从单一追 求规模到重视盈利，垂直 O2O 公司的竞争格局显著改善，服务类行 业未来有望量价齐升，推荐途虎-W；②教育底部反转，推荐业绩可 持续兑现的低估值个股：卓越教育、思考乐教育、粉笔、行动教育 等；③平价出海零售仍维持高景气，推荐：名创优品、小商品城、 华凯易佰、安克创新等；④旅游热度持续攀升 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——零售出海观察系列第 41 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|--------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 陈笑(分析师) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38677906 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | chenxiao015813@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880518020002 | 本报告导读： 7 月出口增速环比略下滑但仍保持在较高增长区间，亚马逊 PD 创新高印证海外需 求仍较好。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 7 月出口仍具韧性，对欧美增速延续回升趋势。1)海关总署披露 7 月 外贸数据，按美元计，1-7 月我国出口增速 4%、环比+0.4pct，进口 增速 2.8%、环比+0.8pct；7 月单月出口增速 7%、环比-1.6pct，进口 增速 7 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|----------------------------|------------------------------| | | 丁丹(分析师) | 甘坛焕(分析师) | 姜铸轩(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976735 | 021-38675855 | 021-38674878 | | | dingdan@gtjas.com | gantanhuan028803@gtjas.com | jiangzhuxuan029022@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880514030001 | S0880523080007 | S0880123100004 | 本报告导读： 国产重磅创新药海内外市场迎来收获期，多家头部 Biotech 企业扭亏趋势已现。利 好政策频发，创新药行业在支付端迎来边际改善。看好头部创新药企。 投资要点： [Table_Summ ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.10 ——传媒行业周报 2024 年 31 期 AI 应用渐成主流，户外广告投放稳中有升 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------|------------------| | | 陈筱(分析师) | 陈俊希(分析师) | 李芓漪(分析师) | | | 021-38675863 | 021-38032025 | 021-38038428 | | | chenxiao@gtjas.com | chenjunxi@gtjas.com | liziyi@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515040003 | S0880520120009 | S0880523080004 | 本报告导读： 202 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 油运与航空具逆向布局时机 [Table_Industry] 运输 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------|------------------------| | | 股票研究 /[ | Table_Date] 2024.08.10 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------------------|------------------| | | | ——国君交运周观察 | | [table_Authors] 岳鑫(分析师) | 尹嘉骐(分析师) | | | 0755-23976758 | 021-38038322 | | | yuexin@gtjas.com | yinjiaqi@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880514 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------------------|----------------| | | | ——钴锂金属周报 | | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 宁紫微(分析师) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38038438 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | ningziwei@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 S0880523080002 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.10 累库未止，锂价继续下探 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 上周锂价延续下行，由于开始进入长协订单交付阶段（每个月上旬周），市场零单采 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——工业金属周报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|-------------------------| | | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38031027 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | lanyang028684@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 美国 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 好于预期，阶段性缓解市场衰退担忧，前半周日元套息 交易平仓带来的流动性恶化亦有缓解，工业金属价格阶段性企稳，临近金九银十旺 季和降息窗口期，基本面有支撑的品种或表现更优。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 周期研判：美国 7 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 51.4，高于预期的 51 和前 值 48，其中就业、新订单、商业活动分项指数均重返扩张区间，阶 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased sensitivity to economic data and intensified competition in gold and silver markets, with expectations of fluctuating prices due to potential adjustments in Federal Reserve interest rate policies [4][5]. - The report anticipates that gold will see strong support from global geopolitical tensions and the increasing importance of gold in central bank reserves, despite short-term price volatility [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The U.S. job market has significantly cooled, raising recession concerns and driving up interest rate cut expectations. This has led to a spike in market volatility, with the VIX index reaching its highest level since 2021. However, recent data, such as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rising to 51.4 and a drop in initial jobless claims to 233,000, has eased recession fears slightly [5][9]. - As of August 10, 2024, the market estimates a 49% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a total of three cuts expected within the year [5][9]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, with other beneficiaries including Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and others [10][43]. 3. Precious Metal Prices and Inventory - As of August 9, 2024, SHFE gold prices fell by 1.92% to 560.70 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold prices increased slightly by 0.03% to 2,470.60 USD per ounce. SHFE silver prices dropped by 4.86% to 7,079.00 CNY per kilogram [12][10]. - SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.06 tons to 11 tons, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 4.47 tons to 551 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 89.66 tons to 933 tons [13][10]. 4. Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The report notes that China's manufacturing PMI for July was 49.40%, indicating a slight decline, while the U.S. manufacturing PMI was reported at 46.80 [18][19]. 5. Gold: Fluctuating Expectations - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts and global liquidity changes. The report emphasizes the importance of gold as a reserve asset amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][10]. 6. Silver: Greater Price Volatility - Silver prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, leading to greater price fluctuations. The report indicates that industrial demand for silver may increase as the economy stabilizes, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [5][10]. 7. Key Industry Companies - The report lists key companies in the industry, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others, providing their respective stock prices and earnings projections [43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the automotive industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][5]. Core Insights - The domestic market shows significant stability, with the National Development and Reform Commission issuing documents to enhance passenger vehicle scrappage subsidies and clarify commercial vehicle subsidy details. This is expected to sustain structural market trends, particularly in areas such as Huawei's automotive chain, smart driving, and Tesla's automotive chain [3][4]. - The report highlights recommended stocks in various categories: - Complete vehicles: Jianghuai Automobile, Changan Automobile, BYD, Chunfeng Power, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [4][5]. - Smart technology: Desay SV, Xingyu Co., Kobot, Huayang Group, Huayi Technology, and Baolong Technology [4][5]. - High-growth new energy: Wuxi Zhenhua, Ruihu Mould, Huguang Co., Songyuan Co., Top Group, Shuanghuan Transmission, Xinquan Co., Aikedi, and Yinlun Co. [4][5]. - The report anticipates stable domestic sales due to the implementation of scrappage subsidies and local replacement subsidies, while overseas demand faces increasing uncertainty due to concerns about the U.S. economy and potential impacts from the upcoming U.S. elections [4][5]. - The launch of Huawei's new smart vehicles in Q3 is expected to further drive growth in Huawei's automotive chain, with models like the BAIC Huawei Smart Model Enjoy S9 and Chery Huawei Smart Model Zhi Jie R7 set to enrich the smart vehicle supply [4][5]. - The automotive electronics sector, particularly smart driving, is expected to continue its strong performance, driven by advancements in technology and increasing consumer awareness [4][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the stability of the domestic market and the continuation of structural trends, focusing on Huawei's automotive chain, smart driving, and Tesla's automotive chain [4][5]. - Recommended stocks include Jianghuai Automobile, Changan Automobile, BYD, and others in the complete vehicle category, as well as various companies in smart technology and new energy sectors [4][5]. Market Outlook - The domestic market is expected to maintain stable sales, while overseas demand faces uncertainties due to economic concerns and political factors [4][5]. - The smart driving sector is projected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and pilot programs across various regions [4][5].