国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 2024 年 7 月乘用车销量数据点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.10 7 月零售环比小幅下滑，新能源表现亮眼 [Table_Industry] 汽车 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|----------------------------| | | 吴晓飞(分析师) | 多飞舟(分析师) | | | 0755-23976003 | 010-83939800 | | | wuxiaofei@gtjas.com | duofeizhou026148@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517080003 | S0880523020001 | 本报告导读： 7 月国内乘用车零售销量达 172 万辆，同比-2.8%，环比-2.6%，7月新能源乘用车批 发渗透率升至 48.1%。 投资要点： [Table_Sum ...

大消费和地产板块短期微观结构较好 [Table_Authors] 张晗(分析师) 本报告导读： 投资要点： 风险提示：本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行计算，模型结 果仅表示不同风格及行业预期未来相对强弱情况，不代表点位预测， 不代表未来宽基指数和行业指数整体走势的判断，亦不构成投资收 益的保证或投资建议。股市系统性风险发生使得各类规律失效。宏 观和产业政策超预期改变市场交易环境。报告中的模拟组合构建在 实际投资中难以完全复制，主要是证明方法论的有效性。 | | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | | | zhanghan027620@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120005 | | | 卢开庆(分析师) | | | 021-38038674 | | | lukaiqing026727@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080005 | | | 梁誉耀(分析师) | | | 021-38038665 | | | liangyuyao026735@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524080003 | [Table ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.11 ——建筑行业第 360 期周报 能源电力推荐中国能建/电建，逆周期推荐中国建筑/交建 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------|---------------------------| | | 韩其成(分析师) | 郭浩然(分析师) | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030004 | S0880524020002 | 本报告导读： 国家加快构建新型电力系统，推荐中国能建和中国电建。出口增速下行，推荐逆周 期财政基建隧道股份/中国交建/中国中铁/华设集团等，地产推荐中国建筑。 投资要点： [加快构建新型电力系统 Table_Summary] 。 ...

——港股市场策略周报 本报告导读： 本轮海外波动港股市场展现韧性。当前港股市场风险溢价已触及历史高位，过往历 次均对应后续反弹行情开启。考虑海外风险因素阶段缓和，后续冲击预计相对有 限，我们认为港股市场已进入配置区间，后市反弹空间可期，向恒生科技要弹性。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 上周日元套息交易逻辑扭转，海外经济衰退担忧升温，避险逻辑驱 动海外资金回流，导致全球资产价格下跌，港股震荡企稳全周收涨。 日元被动升值下套息交易平仓，引发全球各类资产价格大幅回调。 国内通胀数据好于预期，环比增速由降转升增长 0.5%，反映消费需 求恢复。上周港股表现，恒生指数上涨 0.85%，恒生科技指数上涨 1.51%，恒生国企指数涨 0.72%。行业方面，医疗保健、地产建筑和 资讯科技行业表现最好。受国际地缘政治压力影响半导体本土化需 求加速，中芯国际中报超预期并给出三季度业绩指引，景气获提振。 日元套利交易逻辑扭转与海外经济走弱预期形成全球市场负反馈 共振，而本轮港股表现显著跑赢其他市场，显示港股韧性突显。过 往来看，日元套息交易的核心底层逻辑是日本利率水平相对较低且 汇率维持稳定。自 7 月中旬美国通胀数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, benefiting from an improved competitive landscape and enhanced profitability, particularly in the core Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, where expansion based on profitability has resumed [5]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.599 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.67%, and an adjusted net profit of 105 million RMB, compared to 5.41 million RMB in Q2 2023. The GMV for Q2 2024 was 6.219 billion RMB, up 16.79% [5]. - The company has restarted regional expansion, opening 25 new warehouses in Q2 2024, with a total of 40 opened in the first half of 2024, indicating a positive trend in growth and scale effects [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue for the company has shown significant growth over the years, with a forecasted revenue of 22.29 billion RMB for 2024, up from 19.97 billion RMB in 2023, marking an increase of 11.62% [6]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve to 340.95 million RMB in 2024, compared to 36.73 million RMB in 2023, indicating a recovery in profitability [6]. - The gross profit margin has slightly decreased by 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the marketing expense ratio has increased by 0.48 percentage points, reflecting the company's strategy to support expansion through user incentives and marketing investments [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 21.60 CNY, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2024 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth alongside high dividends, which enhances its attractiveness to investors. The improvement in competitive landscape has led to an increase in payment market share and net acquiring fee rates, driving revenue growth. The company has initiated mid-term dividends, with a dividend yield that is appealing [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.982 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 419 million CNY, down 17.98% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 412 million CNY, up 45.86% year-on-year. These results are in line with expectations [4]. - The payment business generated 2.634 billion CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 3.67%, while other businesses contributed 350 million CNY, down 19% year-on-year. The growth in the payment business is the main driver of overall revenue growth [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s transaction volume in the payment business was 21.5 trillion CNY, a decrease of 5.29% year-on-year. However, the net acquiring fee rate improved to 0.1225%, an increase of 1 basis point year-on-year, which is a key factor in the growth of the payment business. In Q2 2024, the net acquiring fee rate further increased to 0.1268% [4]. - The company has seen an increase in its QR code payment share, with transaction amounts reaching 673.8 billion CNY, up 28% year-on-year, and QR code transactions now account for 31% of the total [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has initiated mid-term dividends, distributing 320 million CNY, which represents 78% of the net profit excluding non-recurring items. The dividend yield has reached 3.4%, making it attractive to investors. The company has a history of maintaining a high dividend payout ratio and is expected to continue this trend as performance improves [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the company’s payment business due to an increase in market share and the enhancement of its "payment+" industry solutions. The company is also exploring B2B foreign trade business models to provide integrated cross-border payment solutions for Chinese brands [4].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price adjusted to 21.60 RMB, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2024 [4][5] Core Views - The company's payment market share has increased due to improved competitive landscape, leading to higher net fee rates and driving performance growth [3][4] - The company initiated an interim dividend with an attractive dividend yield, supporting continued optimism for its growth and future dividend payouts [4] - The payment business grew by 3.67% YoY in H1 2024, contributing significantly to revenue growth, with transaction volume reaching 2.15 trillion RMB, despite a 5.29% YoY decline [4] - The net fee rate for payment services increased to 0.1225%, up by 1 basis point YoY, with Q2 2024 seeing a further rise to 0.1268% [4] - The company's cross-border payment business has served over 90,000 merchants, focusing on B2B foreign trade and providing tailored solutions for Chinese brands going global [4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 2.982 billion RMB, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 419 million RMB, down 17.98% YoY, while non-GAAP net profit increased by 45.86% YoY to 412 million RMB [4] - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.08, 1.22, and 1.36 RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [4] - The company's gross margin for payment services improved to 30.2%, up 2.7 percentage points YoY [4] - Interim dividend payout for H1 2024 was 320 million RMB, representing 78% of non-GAAP net profit, with a semi-annual dividend yield of 3.4% [4] Market and Valuation - The company's total market capitalization stands at 9.52 billion RMB, with a current share price of 11.90 RMB [5][6] - The 52-week price range is between 11.36 and 20.57 RMB [6] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 11.00, with a P/B ratio of 2.43 [10] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The company benefits from an improved competitive environment in the offline payment market, leading to higher fee rates and market share [4] - The company's "payment+" industry solutions and open platform have expanded revenue sources by addressing diverse customer needs such as收款, 分账, 订单, 报表, and 营销 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 58.44 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [4][9]. Core Views - The semiconductor industry is recovering, and the company's power management chip business is developing, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in performance for H1 2024. The company is expanding its product matrix across multiple application scenarios [2][9]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion CNY in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.28%, and a net profit of 205 million CNY, up 103.86% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached 648 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 72.96% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.71% [9]. - The company is focusing on research and development, with R&D expenses in H1 2024 amounting to 183 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 46.47% [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 1.25 billion CNY in H1 2024, with a net profit of 205 million CNY. The Q2 2024 revenue was 648 million CNY, with a net profit of 105 million CNY [9]. - The financial forecast shows a revenue increase from 1.78 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.41 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected net profit of 389 million CNY [10]. Product Development - The company is expanding its product offerings in various sectors, including mobile devices, smart energy, automotive electronics, and general electronics. This includes wired and wireless charging solutions and power management chips for displays [9]. - The company has established a competitive advantage in the smartphone sector while actively exploring new applications in consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial fields [9]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of 12.477 billion CNY and a current stock price of 29.46 CNY, with a target price of 58.44 CNY indicating significant upside potential [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company Dingdong Maicai (DDL.N) [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, benefiting from an improved competitive landscape and enhanced profitability, particularly in the core Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, leading to a resumption of expansion based on profitability [5]. - Dingdong Maicai reported a revenue of 5.599 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.67%, and an adjusted net profit of 105 million RMB for Q2 2024, compared to 5.41 million RMB in Q2 2023 [5]. - The company's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for Q2 2024 reached 6.219 billion RMB, marking a 16.79% increase [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 22.292 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 11.62% compared to the previous year [6]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve significantly, reaching 340.95 million RMB in 2024E, with a net profit margin of 1.53% [6]. Market Dynamics - The company has restarted its expansion in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, opening 25 new warehouses in Q2 2024 and a total of 40 in the first half of 2024, with expectations for further increases in the number of new warehouses throughout the year [5]. - The growth in revenue and GMV is driven by the expansion in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, increased average revenue per user (ARPU) in Shanghai, and growth in leisure product categories [5]. Strategic Focus - Dingdong Maicai is focusing on achieving profitable growth while enhancing user engagement and marketing investments, which may temporarily impact gross and profit margins but is seen as beneficial for long-term shareholder returns [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a 32% growth in H1 performance, demonstrating operational resilience. It plans to enhance high-end manufacturing and increase automation levels to further strengthen its global competitiveness [4][7]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026 with net profits projected at 409 million, 492 million, and 575 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25.2%, 20.2%, and 17% respectively [7]. - The target price is set at 15 RMB, with a recommendation to maintain the "Buy" rating [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for H1 reached 976 million RMB, an increase of 17.5%, while net profit was 209 million RMB, up 31.6%. The total production from three major bases was 10.4 million pieces, marking a 21.4% increase [7]. - The revenue breakdown shows standardized lens revenue at 779 million RMB (+18.4%, 79.7% share) and customized lens revenue at 194 million RMB (+13.7%, 19.9% share) [7]. - Geographically, overseas revenue was 675 million RMB (+15.3%, 69.1% share), while domestic revenue was 301 million RMB (+22.7%, 29.6% share) [7]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for H1 was 39.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points, with standardized lens gross margin at 33.8% (+2.4 percentage points) and customized lens gross margin at 59.5% (-0.4 percentage points) [7]. - The net profit margin was 21.4%, up 2.3 percentage points [7]. - Sales expense ratio was 5.49%, R&D expense ratio was 4.96%, and management expense ratio was 4.77% [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to acquire land in Thailand for 39 million RMB to build a production base for high-end refractive resin lenses and automated production lines [7]. - It is actively expanding its domestic business through online platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, as well as offline through exhibitions and academic conferences [7]. - The company is leveraging a C2M model to enhance business processes and aims to accelerate the expansion of overseas brand lenses [7].