Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of fuses in China, expected to benefit from the high demand in the new energy vehicle and wind-solar storage sectors, leading to rapid growth in performance [2][10]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated to be 201 million, 313 million, and 490 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.03, 4.73, and 7.39 yuan [2][10]. - The target price for 2024 is set at 90.11 yuan, based on PE and PB valuation methods [2][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.06 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.93 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 42.0%, 42.8%, and 36.3% respectively [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 117 million yuan in 2023 to 490 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -23.9%, 71.6%, 56.2%, and 56.3% [3][12]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain high, with a forecast of 41.53% in 2024, declining slightly to 39.22% by 2026 [12]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix, including power fuses, electronic fuses, incentive fuses, and smart fuses, with over 120 product series and more than 9,000 specifications [17][18]. - The company has a strong customer base, including major domestic brands and international companies such as Tesla, Daimler, and Volvo [2][10]. - The penetration rate of 800V high-voltage platforms in new energy vehicles is expected to drive explosive growth in the sales of incentive fuses, with projected revenue from these products reaching 1.04 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 173.32% [2][10]. Market Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas operations by establishing wholly-owned subsidiaries in Japan and Singapore, and joint ventures in Thailand and the United States [2][10]. - A significant order worth 900 million to 1.2 billion yuan from a leading German automotive company is expected to start production in 2025, indicating strong growth potential in international markets [2][10]. Valuation - The report utilizes both PE and PB valuation methods, with a target price derived from an average of both methods, resulting in a target price of 90.11 yuan [14][15]. - The company is expected to maintain a higher valuation premium due to its leading position in the fuse industry and growth potential in new energy sectors [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.976 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 31.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 226 million yuan, down 53.4% year-on-year, which aligns with previous performance expectations [1][2]. - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a minimum annual cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share, which is expected to be at least 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][2]. - The demand remains weak, particularly in the Guangdong region, exacerbated by continuous rainfall affecting construction activities, leading to a significant decline in cement and clinker sales [1][2]. - The pricing and profitability are under pressure, but there is potential for recovery in the second half of 2024 as market conditions improve [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.169 billion yuan, down 6.6% from 2023, with net profit expected to be 586 million yuan, a decrease of 20.9% [3][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 0.49 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively [1][3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 4.9% in 2024, increasing to 6.8% by 2026 [3][9]. Market and Pricing Trends - The average price of cement and clinker in the first half of 2024 is estimated to be around 249 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of approximately 54 yuan per ton [1][2]. - The company anticipates a stabilization of cement prices in the third quarter of 2024, with potential increases in the fourth quarter as demand recovers [1][2].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.10 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------------------| | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 刘小华(分析师) | | 021-38038404 | 021-38038434 | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | liuxiaohua027843@gtjas.com | 登记编号 S0880522080001 S0880523120003 经济数据敏感增大，金银博弈加剧 [Table_Industry] 贵金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 市场对于美联储降息预期较高，或存调整风险，叠加市场对经济数据的敏感度大幅 提升，预期反复、流动性变化下，金银价格或呈现宽幅震荡。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 周期研判：美国就业市场大幅降温、美经济衰退担忧加剧，推动降 息预期陡增，叠加日本意外加息后市场套息反转，导致周初海外股 市大跌， ...

股 票 研 究 H1 业绩增长 32%，多措并举强化竞争力 康耐特光学(2276) 家庭及个人用品 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——康耐特光学 2024 年中报点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|--------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 陈笑(分析师) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38677906 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | chenxiao015813@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880518020002 | 本报告导读： H1 业绩增长 32%彰显经营韧性；公司拟提升高端制造、提升自动化水平，将进一 步强化全球竞争力。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持增持。我们维持预测 2024-26 年归母净利 4.09/4.92/5.75 亿元， 增速 25.2/20.2/17%；维持目标价 15 元，维持增持。 半年报简述：1)营 ...

| 债券类资产本周回调，多种资产配置策略 | | --- | | 出现回撤 | ——量化配置基础模型周报第 13 期 本报告导读： 本周（2024-08-05 到 2024-08-09）债券指数出现回调，国内资产 BL 模型 1、国内资 产 BL 模型 2、基于宏观因子的资产配置模型、全球资产 BL 模型 1、国内资产风险 平价模型、全球资产 BL 模型 2 和全球资产风险平价模型分录跌幅 0.33%、0.28%、 0.26%、0.23%、0.2%、0.19%和 0.11%。 投资要点： 大市值因子收益回撤，流动性因子边际收益提升 2024.08.05 宏观不确定性放大资产波动率 2024.08.05 本周小市值风格继续占优，高频分钟、分析师超 预期类因子表现较好 2024.08.04 黄金领涨，A 股消费风格信息比回升 2024.08.04 日本 GPIF 2023 财年收益创纪录 2024.07.29 大 类 资 产 配 置 被 动 资 产 配 置 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 风险提示：量化模型基于历史数据构建，而历史规律存在失效风险。 | [Table_Author ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, focusing on companies with resilient performance, significant cost advantages, and the ability to expand against the trend [4][43]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the end of the Third Plenary Session is expected to boost confidence, with a positive outlook on resilient performance and cost advantages in specific leading sub-sectors of the industry. Despite pressures in the new materials sector in 2024, certain sub-industry leaders with high barriers to entry are still viewed positively [3][4]. Market Performance and Price Tracking - During the week of August 5-9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.48%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 2.60%. The basic chemical index decreased by 1.28%, ranking 15th among 30 sectors. Notable price increases included NYMEX natural gas (+53.59%) and Vitamin A (+27.27%) [4][37]. - The report notes that the explosion at BASF's Ludwigshafen facility in Germany has led to sustained price increases for Vitamin A and E, with potential for further price elasticity due to supply constraints [4][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Jianghuai Chemical, among others, as beneficiaries of the current market dynamics. It emphasizes focusing on sectors like MDI, coal chemical, spandex, and titanium dioxide [4][43][44]. Key Company Tracking - Wanhua Chemical's MDI price gap has increased, with pure MDI prices at 16,478 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.60% and a monthly increase of 5.56% [46]. - Hualu Hengsheng's first phase of the Jingzhou project has been successfully launched, with the second phase under construction [48]. - Juhua Co. has seen significant growth in Q2 2024, driven by rising prices of refrigerants, with a projected EPS of 0.95 RMB for 2024 [49][50]. Sub-Industry Insights - The new materials sector is expected to see growth in sub-industries with high technological or channel barriers, such as adsorption resins and nano-silica [55]. - The agrochemical sector is witnessing improved demand for glyphosate, with prices stabilizing after a period of decline, while the fertilizer sector is benefiting from increased export demand [56].

海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.10 本报告导读： 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 多项指标显示港股已进入配置区间 [Table_Authors] 陈熙淼(分析师) 登记编号 S0880520120004 021-38031655 chenximiao@gtjas.com | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------------| | | 王一凡(研究助理) | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan027893@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123030019 | ——港股市场流动性与估值跟踪 近期海外经济衰退预期扰动叠加日本央行加息引发海外市场波动加大，港股上周行 情震荡后周五反弹。当前恒生科技盈利预期持续改善，而估值和风险溢价均已接近 历史极值位置。恒生科技预测估值已调整至 2022 年 10 月/2024 年 2 月反弹行情启 动前低位，恒生指数风险溢价指标已突破历史均值+2倍标准差，港股进入配置区间。 哈里斯 VS ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.10 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|----------------------------|------------------------------| | | 丁丹(分析师) | 甘坛焕(分析师) | 姜铸轩(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976735 | 021-38675855 | 021-38674878 | | | dingdan@gtjas.com | gantanhuan028803@gtjas.com | jiangzhuxuan029022@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880514030001 | S0880523080007 | S0880123100004 | 本报告导读： 国产重磅创新药海内外市场迎来收获期，多家头部 Biotech 企业扭亏趋势已现。利 好政策频发，创新药行业在支付端迎来边际改善。看好头部创新药企。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 重磅创新药持续放量，海内外市场迎来收获期。多款国产重磅创新 ...

——工业金属周报 流动性预期修复，旺季、降息双催化托底 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|-------------------------| | | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38031027 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | lanyang028684@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 美国 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 好于预期，阶段性缓解市场衰退担忧，前半周日元套息 交易平仓带来的流动性恶化亦有缓解，工业金属价格阶段性企稳，临近金九银十旺 季和降息窗口期，基本面有支撑的品种或表现更优。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 周期研判：美国 7 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 51.4，高于预期的 51 和前 值 48，其中就业、新订单、商业活动分项指数均 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][25]. Core Insights - Moutai's performance and dividend exceeded expectations, stabilizing the underperforming liquor stocks. The beverage industry shows optimal prosperity, with marginal recovery in the beer sector. The report suggests prioritizing stocks with enhanced shareholder returns and clear growth trends [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Liquor: Recommend increasing holdings in stable sales and high-dividend stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu, as well as underperforming stocks like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jiansiyuan, and Laobai Ganjiu [3][7]. - Beverages: Suggest increasing holdings in companies with rigid low-price, high-frequency consumption demands and sustained prosperity, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Uni-President China, and Master Kong Holdings [3][7]. - Beer: Recommend increasing holdings in Yanjing Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, Chongqing Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and Hong Kong's China Resources Beer and Tsingtao Brewery [3][7]. - Consumer Goods: Suggest increasing holdings in high-growth stocks like Three Squirrels, Jin Zai Food, and Yanjinpuzi, as well as supply chain stocks like Qianhe Flavor Industry, Zhongju Gaoxin, Baoli Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, and Tianwei Food after the pressure from the restaurant sector is released [3][7]. Liquor Sector - Moutai's performance and dividend exceeded expectations, boosting confidence in the sector. The focus has shifted from growth rates to the sustainability and stability of growth. The report anticipates a rebound in volume during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but limited price support for the sector [8][12]. Beverage & Beer Sector - The beverage sector shows good prosperity across various segments, with competition intensifying in sugar-free tea and water. The report expects oligopolistic structures to remain in sugary tea, functional beverages, and carbonated drinks, with profitability potentially reaching new highs. Uni-President's 1H24 revenue increased by 6%, with beverage business revenue exceeding 10 billion, up 8% year-on-year [12][14]. Consumer Goods & Dairy Sector - The snack sector is currently experiencing the most significant valuation pressure among all segments, with potential for a rebound. The report emphasizes that companies focusing on channels will have relative advantages over pure category companies, indicating a trend towards channel structure transformation [14][16]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast and valuation table for key stocks, indicating a positive outlook for several companies in the food and beverage sector [16][18].