国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 投资要点： 旺季预期分歧，产业博弈加强 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------| | | 宁紫微(分析师) | | | 021-38038438 | | | ningziwei@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523080002 | 有色金属《突发事件催化，期货触底反弹》 2024.07.21 有色金属《贵金属周度数据库》2024.07.21 有色金属《降息预期拥堵，黄金博弈升级》 2024.07.20 有色金属《【国君有色】钴锂小金属周度数据库 0720》2024.07.20 有色金属《衰退预期扰动，板块弱势下行》 2024.07.20 上周期现锂价延续下行，受情绪影响期货波动较大。现货市场当前成交一般，预计 锂价在短期内难有反弹。市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company's revenue has been slightly disturbed due to exam schedule changes and intensified industry competition, leading to a performance forecast that is slightly below expectations for H1 2024. However, the small class operations continue to show strong performance, and there is potential for OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) collaborative growth [3]. - The adjusted net profit for FY2024-2026 is projected to be 5.46 billion, 6.26 billion, and 7.15 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 3.85 HKD based on a 15x PE for FY2024 [3]. - The company anticipates H1 2024 revenue of no less than 16.10 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decline of no more than 4.3%, while net profit is expected to be no less than 2.55 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of at least 212.9% [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company has released a semi-annual performance forecast indicating that H1 2024 revenue will be no less than 16.10 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of up to 4.3%. The net profit is expected to be no less than 2.55 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of at least 212.9% [3]. - The adjusted net profit, excluding share-based payments and fair value losses, is projected to be no less than 3.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of no less than 13.5% [3]. Revenue and Profit Drivers - The growth in profit is attributed to several factors: 1. Continuous investment in technology and the leading application of AI in teaching and course products, enhancing teacher utilization efficiency and income contribution per teacher. 2. Improved operational efficiency through technology, leading to optimized employee costs and expected increases in gross and net profit margins for H1 2024. 3. A significant reduction in share-based payments recognized in H1 2024 [3]. Challenges and Opportunities - Revenue has been impacted by the early scheduling of civil service exams and increased price competition within the industry, alongside a weakening consumer environment affecting payment capabilities [3]. - The company is focusing on small class operations, leveraging strong product development capabilities and a large user base. The strategy includes enhancing the product matrix to meet diverse learning needs and driving growth in paid user numbers [3]. - The OMO strategy aims to improve teaching efficiency and experience through deep integration of online and offline services, supported by a strong reputation and low-cost conversion advantages [3]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates that the company expects adjusted net profits to grow steadily over the next few years, with specific figures for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 being 5.46 billion, 6.26 billion, and 7.15 billion RMB respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 26.06 RMB, consistent with the previous forecast [2] - The target price implies a 24x PE valuation for 2024 [4] Core Viewpoints - The company has achieved a breakthrough in AI technology for game production, with its "Xingyi" large model upgraded to enable fully automated game generation through conversational AI [3][4] - This advancement is expected to revolutionize game production models and gameplay ecosystems by significantly lowering the barrier to game development [4] - The company's "IP strategy" is progressing steadily, with a rich pipeline of future products and active exploration of AI's impact on game development and product forms [4] Company Event Analysis - On July 26, the company announced its AI technology breakthrough at the ChinaJoy China Game Developers Conference (CGDC) [4] - The upgraded "Xingyi" large model allows users to generate complete games through conversational AI, automating tasks such as drawing, documentation, art, and music creation [4] - The model's multi-task parallel processing and three-dimensional operation matrix have significantly improved game development efficiency and automation capabilities [4] Industry Trends - The gaming industry is actively exploring AI applications, particularly in content generation, which has a fundamental impact on production models and gameplay ecosystems [4] - Current AI applications in gaming include AI NPCs (text language), AI companions (character control and text interaction), and AI content generation (graphics, 3D assets) [4] - The company has been at the forefront of AI integration, having introduced its "Xingyi" large model in April, which initially focused on internal R&D assistance [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to remain unchanged at 0.94/1.12/1.28 RMB [4] Related Reports - The report references previous analyses on the company's IP strategy, product pipeline, and performance [5]

[Table_subIndustry] 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 投资要点： 暑运票价平疫前，继续优配高股息 [Table_Industry] 运输 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——交通运输行业周报 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------| | 岳鑫(分析师) | 尹嘉骐(分析师) | | 0755-23976758 | 021-38038322 | | yuexin@gtjas.com | yinjiaqi@gtjas.com | | S0880514030006 | S0880524030004 | 运输《高油价致短期承压，实业界预期仍乐观》 2024.07.23 运输《【国君交运】油价高企影响短期运价，一年 期期租仍稳健》2024.07.22 运输《暑运客流再创新高，Q2 快递件量高增》 2024.07.21 运输《航空供需仍在恢复中，客座率提升对冲票 价回落》2024.07.21 运输《航 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2] Core Viewpoints - Short-term demand in the steel industry is expected to remain slightly volatile during the off-season, but the overall demand for the year is not pessimistic. The negative drag from real estate on steel demand is expected to decrease, while infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are anticipated to maintain steady growth, which may offset the decline in demand from the real estate sector [4][8] - The report highlights that the profitability of steel companies has decreased, with the profit margins for rebar and hot-rolled coils showing significant declines. The overall profitability rate for 247 steel companies dropped to 15.15%, a decrease of 16.88 percentage points [5][18][22] - The report emphasizes that while real estate remains a major drag on demand, its share is expected to fall below 20% as policies take effect. Infrastructure is likely to provide support for steel demand, and manufacturing is expected to continue its steady growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - The report notes a decrease in steel prices, with rebar prices dropping by 120 CNY/ton to 3220 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.59%. The total inventory of major steel products increased to 1757.86 million tons, with a slight rise of 0.64 million tons [5][8][14] - The apparent consumption of steel last week was 874.84 million tons, a decrease of 2.75% week-on-week and 7.11% year-on-year [14] Production and Operating Rates - The production of steel last week was 875.48 million tons, a decrease of 8.51 million tons from the previous week. The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 82.33%, down by 0.3 percentage points [5][18][22] - The report indicates that the operating rate of electric furnaces was 58.33%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points [18] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The simulated production profit for rebar was -124.2 CNY/ton, down by 70.4 CNY/ton, while for hot-rolled coils it was -14.2 CNY/ton, down by 60.4 CNY/ton [26] - The report mentions that the average price of iron ore and scrap steel has decreased, while coke prices remained stable, leading to a further contraction in steel company profits [5][22] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with advantageous product structures and competitive edges, such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and new material companies like Zhongxin Special Steel and Yongjin Co., Ltd. [5][4]

[Table_Industry] 家用电器业 2024.07.27[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 线上清洁电器表现较好，铜铝价格环比下降 ——2024W30 家电行业数据周报 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|----------------------------|----------------------------|---------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 李汉颖(研究助理) | | | 021-38031654 | 021-38031025 | 010-83939833 | | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com | qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com | lihanying026725@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S088012207004 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 风险偏好低位，确定性为先 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——食品饮料行业周度更新 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------|--------------------| | | 訾猛(分析师) | 陈力宇(分析师) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38677618 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | chenliyu@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880522090005 | 本报告导读： [Table_Report] 相关报告 我们认为，当前市场风险偏好处于较低位置，确定性对估值的影响大于成长性。 行 业 周 报 食品饮料《内需预期回暖，修复趋势延续》 2024.07.21 食品饮料《首选饮料与啤酒，景气韧性与利润弹 性》2024.07.14 食品饮料《利润增长有弹性，景气改善和分化》 2024.07.12 食品饮料《茅台批价企稳，饮料 ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.27 设备更新政策加码利好机械行业，海风多催化持续高景气 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | 徐乔威(分析师) | 欧阳蕤(分析师) | 刘麒硕(研究助理) | | | 021-38676779 | 021-38676550 | 0755-23976666 | | | xuqiaowei023970@gtjas.com | ouyangrui029285@gtjas.com | liuqishuo028693@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521020003 | S0880523120002 | S0880123070153 | 本报告导读： 推荐供给收缩、更新周期为主的集装箱 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the basic chemical industry as "Overweight" [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the resilience of performance in certain sub-industries, highlighting those with significant cost advantages and the ability to expand against the trend [5][6]. - It notes that while the overall market is experiencing a downturn, specific segments such as MDI, coal chemicals, spandex, and titanium dioxide are expected to perform well [6][47]. - The report suggests that the refrigerant industry has a high degree of certainty in its prosperity, with price trends remaining stable and supply constraints being a key factor [6][47]. Market Performance Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of 3.07%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 3.82% during the week of July 22-26 [6][42]. - The basic chemical index (CI005006) also saw a decrease of 3.72%, ranking 23rd among 30 sectors [6][42]. - The top five price increases for the week included liquid chlorine (+18.18%) and sulfur (+5.88%) [6][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical, among others [6][48]. - It highlights the potential for growth in the new materials sector, particularly in sub-industries with high technological or channel barriers [5][61]. Sub-Industry Tracking - In the new materials sector, the report identifies growth potential in companies specializing in adsorption resins, silicon micropowder, and nano-silica [61]. - The agricultural chemicals sector shows signs of recovery, particularly in glyphosate demand, with expectations for price stabilization as supply improves [62][63].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that liquid cooling technology is an effective means to control temperature and reduce energy consumption in data centers, energy storage stations, and 5G base stations, which aligns with the dual carbon goals of peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality [2]. Core Insights - The demand for computing power is expected to surge, leading to accelerated development of liquid cooling technology. IDC forecasts that from 2022 to 2027, the CAGR for general computing power in China will reach 16.6%, while smart computing power will see a CAGR of 33.9%. Additionally, CClD predicts that by 2025, the average power per rack in global data centers will reach 25 kW, indicating a continuous rise in power consumption [2]. - The liquid cooling market is poised for growth driven by the demand from energy storage and 5G base stations. According to CNESA, China's electrochemical energy storage capacity grew from 141.3 MW in 2015 to 34,301.0 MW in 2023, with a CAGR of 85.66%. The share of energy storage has increased from 0.6% to 39.7% during this period. The safety and temperature control of energy storage stations are closely linked, making temperature control systems essential [2]. - Liquid cooling is becoming a focal point for future temperature control development, with cold plate liquid cooling and immersion liquid cooling being the mainstream technologies. Liquid cooling inherently offers better heat dissipation efficiency than air cooling and can meet the high-density cooling demands of data centers while reducing costs. Cold plate liquid cooling is the most mature technology with a relatively high market share, while immersion liquid cooling, though more expensive, offers higher heat dissipation efficiency and reliability [2]. - The market for liquid cooling data centers in China has rapidly expanded, growing from 3.69 billion yuan in 2019 to 10.05 billion yuan in 2022. The primary downstream customers include the internet, government, and telecommunications sectors, indicating a period of rapid development and intense competition within the industry. Recent government initiatives to implement PUE management requirements are expected to further accelerate the adoption of liquid cooling technology [2].