Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 51.27 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.41 billion yuan, down 34.2% year-on-year. The focus on the second growth curve and core quality cities and projects is expected to lead to performance upgrades in the future [5][6] - The profit margin continues to bottom out, with the overall revenue in H1 2024 declining by 0.3%. The gross profit margin from development projects has decreased year-on-year, and the profit margin attributable to shareholders has also declined [6] - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land investment, with a significant decrease in both the amount and area of land acquired in H1 2024, down 64.9% and 66.2% respectively. The land investment intensity has also dropped from 25% in the same period of 2023 to 14% [6] - The company is diversifying its operations, with the proportion of revenue from development business falling below 90% for the first time, indicating a shift towards a more stable and diversified business model [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 51.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and a net profit of 1.41 billion yuan, down 34.2% year-on-year. The EPS for 2024-2026 is maintained at 0.79, 0.85, and 0.94 yuan respectively, with a target price of 13.18 yuan [6][12] - The operating profit margin decreased by 3.8 percentage points to 5.7%, and the net profit margin attributable to shareholders fell by 1.4 percentage points to 2.8% [6] Land Investment - The company has shown a cautious stance in land acquisition, with a 64.9% decrease in land investment amount and a 66.2% decrease in area acquired in H1 2024. The land investment intensity has decreased significantly [6] Business Diversification - The revenue share from development business has decreased to 87.8%, while the shares from asset operation and urban services have increased, indicating a strategic shift towards diversification [6]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 投资要点： | --- | |-------------------------| | 李启文(分析师) | | 021-38038435 | | liqiwen027858@gtjas.com | | S0880524060001 | 机械行业《设备更新政策加码利好机械行业，海 风多催化持续高景气》2024.07.28 机械行业《AI 算力需求高增，液冷技术加速发 展》2024.07.25 机械行业《三中全会强调出海和自主可控，船舶 集装箱维持高景气》2024.07.20 机械行业《特朗普政策主张推动油气开采扩产， 看好油服设备高景气》2024.07.18 机械行业《工程机械、集运船舶、油服设备业绩 超预期，降息预期增强利好出口链》2024.07.13 设备更新与消费品以旧换新明确资金来源，同时扩大补贴范围及补贴力度，盘活存 量经济的同 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 寿险保费延续景气，财险非车增长提速 [Table_Industry] 保险 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——保险行业 2024 年 6 月保费数据点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|----------------------|-------------------------| | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 谢雨晟(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38674943 | 021-38038619 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | Xieyusheng@gtjas.com | lijiamu026075@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880521120003 | S088052403000 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Ship Leasing (3877) [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year net profit growth of 21-23% in the first half of 2024, exceeding market expectations, driven by the rising shipping market and an increase in fleet size [4][5]. - The company is the only leasing company affiliated with a shipyard in China, which provides it with a unique advantage in understanding ship operations [5]. - With a projected net profit of 2.2 billion HKD for 2024, the company’s PE ratio is only 4 times, indicating a potential high dividend yield if the dividend payout ratio increases to 50%, which could result in a dividend yield of 12% [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3.626 billion HKD in 2023 to 4.592 billion HKD in 2024, reflecting a 27% increase [6]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 1.912 billion HKD in 2023 to 2.192 billion HKD in 2024, marking a 15% increase [6]. - The PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 4.9 in 2023 to 4.3 in 2024, indicating a low valuation [6]. Fleet and Operations - As of the end of 2023, the company operates a fleet of 128 vessels, with 102 under long-term leasing and 26 under short-term leasing [5][10]. - The company’s short-term leasing business is expected to benefit significantly from the high demand in the refined oil transportation market, with the average freight rates reaching historical highs in the first half of 2024 [5][11]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company has seen a reduction in capital expenditures, with a dividend payout ratio that has started to increase, reaching 39% in 2023 [5][12]. - The company signed 18 new ship orders in 2023, a decrease from the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to future capital expenditures [5][12].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 4452273 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 业绩符合预期，推进品牌及渠道拓展 上美股份(2145) 家庭及个人用品 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——上美股份 2024 半年报业绩预告点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------|-------------------| | 訾猛(分析师) | 闫清徽(分析师) | 杨柳(分析师) | | 021-38676442 | 021-38031651 | 021-38038323 | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yanqinghui@gtjas.com | yangliu@gtjas.com | | S0880513120002 | S0880522120004 | S0880521120001 | [当前价格 Table_ ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.28 奥运带动暑期欧洲游，董宇辉从东方甄选离职 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——商社行业周报（2024.07.22-07.28） | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|-----------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 宋小寒(研究助理) | | | 021-38677706 | 010-83939087 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | songxiaohan026736@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880122070054 | 本报告导读： 奥运会带动中国游客奥运会赴巴黎旅游以及法国游客反向来华旅游。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《设备以旧换新政策推进，文旅受 益》2024.07.27 社会服务业《教育强国再提及，加快建设高质量 教育体系》2024.07.21 社会服务业 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——贵金属周报 | --- | --- | |-------------------|----------------------------| | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 刘小华(分析师) | | 021-38038404 | 021-38038434 | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | liuxiaohua027843@gtjas.com | | S0880522080001 | S0880523120003 | 本报告导读： 美国 6 月核心 PCE 数据显示通胀略有反弹，但其经济仍面临下行风险。市场仍维持 联储 9 月开启降息，24 年降息三次的预期。随着预期逐步兑现，以及部分投资者获 利了结，金价或呈现震荡行情。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 周期研判：美国 6 月核心 PCE 同比为 2.6%，高于预期 2.5%，与前 值持平，6 月核心 PCE 环比为 0.2%，高于预期和前值 0.1%，通胀 略有反弹。同时，美国第二季度实际 GDP 年化季率初 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [Table_subIndustry] 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——工业金属周报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.27 宏观预期好转，板块承压企稳 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|----------------------------| | | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 孟宪博(分析师) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38038432 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | mengxianbo029249@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522080001 | S0880523120001 | 本报告导读： 行 业 更 新 美国二季度经济增长、通胀放缓，美联储 9 月降息确定性强，宏观衰退预期缓和。 国内再出政策支持设备 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.27 快手可灵推出付费会员，PixVerseV2 全面升级 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——传媒行业周报 2024 年 29 期 [Table_Report] 相关报告 传播文化业《快手可灵全球上线并升级，AI 视频 工具或迎加速发展》2024.07.25 传播文化业《《抓娃娃》引燃观影热情，多款头部 影片待映》2024.07.20 传播文化业《关注 Meta AR 眼镜进展，A 股传媒 中报预告陆续发布》2024.07.14 传播文化业《Runway Gen-3 开放，电影暑期档热 度提升》2024.07.07 传播文化业《暑期档影片初露峥嵘，六月版号环 比增加》2024.06.30 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|------------------|-------------------------| | | 陈筱(分析师) | 李芓漪(分析师) | 杨昊(分析师) | | | 021- ...

[Table_Industry] 旅游业 2024.07.27[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 设备以旧换新政策推进，文旅受益 ——针对设备更新的政策点评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|------------------------------| | | 刘越男(分析师) | 庄子童(分析师) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38032683 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | zhuangzitong026312@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880524070002 | 本报告导读： 大规模设备更新及消费品以旧换新进一步政策细化，并压实地方责任义务。 投资要点： [Table_投资观点：继续重点推荐垂直 Summary] O2O+出海。①互联网龙头从单一追求 规模到重视盈利，垂直 O2O 公司的竞争格局显著改善，服务类行业 未来有望量价齐升，推荐途虎-W；②教育底部反转，推荐业绩可持续 兑现的低估值个股：卓越教育 ...