证书编号：S0880517080003 投资建议：维持行业增持评级，特斯拉FSD、新车、机器人进展逐步推进，时间节点的调整不改特斯拉中长期成长，FSD入华时间表越来越活晰，汽 车智能化板块持续受益。 事件筒述 : 7月24日特斯拉公告2024年二季度财报 , 2Q24特斯拉实现苦收255亿美元 , 同增2% , 其中汽车业务营收199亿元美元 , 同减7% , 非 GAAP净利润18.1亿美元，同减42%，GAAP净利润14.8亿美元，同减45%。特斯拉2Q24交付44.4万辆，同减5%。 FSD争取年底向中国、欧洲以及其他国家推出，Robotaxi发布推迟至10月，根据特斯拉2024年二季度财报交流会，由于Robotaxi不断优化，原 定于8月的产品发布会推迟至10月10日，马斯克在财报会上表示FSD将在欧洲和中国申请监管批准，预计年底前获得批准，FSD入华时间表越来越 清晰。 新车、机器人稳步推进，墨西哥工厂待美国大选后再推进。根据特斯拉2024年二季度财报交流会，特斯拉计划2025年上半年推出更平价的车型， 新车利用下一代平台以及现有平台，能在目前车型相同的生产线上生产，继续充分利用现有产能，机器人稳步 ...

Market Overview - The commercial aerospace market is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to increase from 42 billion yuan in 2023 to 61 billion yuan by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.72%[4] - Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites dominate global satellite launches, with 2,096 out of 2,118 satellites launched in 2022 being LEO satellites[12] Key Players and Projects - China's GW constellation, operated by China Satellite, plans to deploy 12,922 satellites for broadband internet services[7] - The G60 constellation, led by Shanghai Yuanxin, aims to launch over 12,000 satellites, with at least 108 satellites to be operational by 2024[7] - SpaceX's Starlink has launched over 4,500 satellites and is a leading player in the global satellite internet market[19] Cost Reduction Strategies - Rocket reusability and multi-satellite launches are key to reducing costs, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 achieving a 70% cost reduction through reusability[83] - Satellite manufacturing costs in China are currently around 30 million yuan per satellite, but are expected to drop below 10 million yuan through mass production and process improvements[68] Technological Advancements - LEO satellites are favored for communication due to their low latency, high speed, and wide coverage, making them ideal for satellite internet services[11] - The development of 6G networks is driving the integration of satellite communication, with China Telecom already offering satellite-to-phone services[38] Industry Challenges - The high cost of rocket and satellite technology development remains a significant barrier, with potential delays in reusable rocket and multi-satellite launch technologies posing risks to cost reduction efforts[124] - Limited private capital investment in the commercial aerospace sector could slow down industry growth[113]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 61.3 CNY, down from the previous 66.59 CNY [5][3]. Core Views - The company's external sales continue to grow significantly, with a projected increase of approximately 30% in Q2. Internal sales are expected to remain stable, supported by product structure improvements and new channels [3][4]. - The company has slightly lowered its earnings forecast for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 2.92, 3.22, and 3.50 CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, 10%, and 9% respectively [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield and robust operational capabilities, which supports the investment rating [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 10.965 billion CNY in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with a net profit of 941 million CNY, up 6.81% [3][4]. - In Q2 alone, revenue reached 5.586 billion CNY, marking an 11% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 470 million CNY, up 6% [3][4]. Internal and External Sales - Internal sales are expected to see slight growth, while external sales are projected to grow rapidly due to the digestion of customer inventory [3][4]. - The report notes that despite industry challenges, the company's traditional kitchen appliance products are expected to perform better than the industry average due to their strong demand characteristics [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The financial summary indicates a steady increase in revenue from 20.171 billion CNY in 2022 to an expected 25.883 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit projected to rise from 2.068 billion CNY to 2.805 billion CNY over the same period [4][10]. - The company's net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 31.6% in 2024, increasing to 36.0% by 2026 [4][10].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 7 of 10 资讯汇总 我国科学家发现新型高温超导体 近日，复旦大学物理学系赵俊团队利用高压光学浮区技术成功生长了三层镍氧化物，证实了镍氧化物中具有压力诱导的体 超导电性，其超导体积分数达到 86%，这意味着又一新型高温超导体被发现。该团队利用高压光学浮区技术生长了大批样品， 最终成功合成了纯相三层镍氧化物单晶样品。团队还开展了一系列中子衍射和 X 射线衍射测量，精确测定了材料的晶格结构和 氧原子坐标及含量，发现其中几乎没有顶点氧缺陷。此外，该研究还发现，该类材料呈现出奇异金属和独特的层间耦合行为， 为人们理解高温超导机理提供了新的视角和平台。相关研究成果发表于《Nature》期刊。（科技日报，07/19） 新型超材料打造数据"高速公路" 近日，韩国机械与材料研究所（KIMM）科学家使用一种新型薄膜材料，成功研制出 100 英寸纳米透明屏幕（NTS）。该屏 幕纤薄如人的头发丝，能够以丰富的色彩和清晰的光线显示图像细节。研究团队指出，该透明屏幕除了外观轻薄且可以弯曲外， 用户也可以根据需求调整其透明度：透明度最低时，屏幕能够显示出最精确的细节。该屏幕对光也有很强的反射能力，当 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the optical module industry, highlighting sustained high demand and performance from leading companies [1]. Core Insights - The performance forecasts for leading optical module manufacturers show significant year-on-year profit growth, driven by increasing demand for 400G products in North America and expectations for 800G product shipments in the latter half of the year [1]. - China Unicom is accelerating its 5G-A deployment and enhancing its AI capabilities, aiming to create a more intelligent and efficient network ecosystem [1]. - The domestic computing power supply chain is maturing, with various components and systems being developed to support AI model training and inference, indicating investment opportunities in related sectors [1]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Performance Forecasts - Leading companies like Xinyisheng and Tianfu Communication are expected to report substantial profit increases, with Xinyisheng's net profit forecasted between 810 million to 950 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 180.89% to 229.44% [1]. - Tianfu Communication's net profit is projected to be between 630 million to 678 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 167% to 187% [1]. Section 2: China Unicom's Initiatives - China Unicom is focusing on new connections and business models, enhancing its 5G-A capabilities and promoting satellite internet commercialization [1]. - The company is also leveraging AI to improve network operations and has opened numerous AI application scenarios to support its initiatives [1]. Section 3: Supply Chain Development - The report outlines the components of an AI computing power system, including training and inference chips, high-speed optical modules, and data center infrastructure, indicating a robust domestic supply chain [1]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors that are well-positioned within this evolving supply chain [1].

行 业 事 件 快 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 2024.07.26 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------------------------|--------------------| | [table_Authors | 蔡雯娟](分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 樊夏俐(分析师) | | | 021-38031654 | 021-38031025 | 021-38676666 | | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com | qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com | fanxiali@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090006 | ——家电消费刺激政策系列研究 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 本报告导读： 两部门支 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [Table_Industry] 汽车 2024.07.26[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 政策力度加码，汽车更新需求有望超预期 ——汽车行业事件快评 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------| | | 郁研(研究助理) | | | 021-38031026 | | | yuyan028679@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123070140 | 本报告导读： 乘用车以旧换新补贴政策加码，报废补贴金额大幅提升，预计对终端销量的边际贡献 更加明显，商用车更新支持政策细则落地。 投资要点： [Table_维持行业增持评级，汽车销量有望加速复苏。 Summary] 设备更新及汽车以旧换 新政策加码，乘用车补贴支持力度较明显加大，商用车补贴规则进一 步明确，终端销量有望加速复苏。整车推荐标的江淮汽车、长安汽车、 比亚迪、长城汽车、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 10.53 yuan, reflecting a 19% decrease from the previous forecast of 12.80 yuan [5][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance for the first half of 2024 is expected to meet market expectations, with a focus on the operational data recovery during the summer peak season [3]. - The report highlights a significant revenue increase for the first half of 2024, projecting revenue between 1.1 billion to 1.25 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.54% to 68.80%, with a median estimate of 1.175 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be between 480 million to 620 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 58.52% to 104.75%, with a median of 550 million yuan [3]. - The report notes that the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 0.42 yuan (-11%), 0.50 yuan (-7%), and 0.57 yuan (-5%) respectively, due to the impact of new market dynamics on traditional travel agencies [3]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 458 million yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue of 1.926 billion yuan for 2023, and expected revenues of 2.732 billion yuan, 3.040 billion yuan, and 3.250 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover significantly from a loss of 110 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 1.104 billion yuan in 2024, 1.323 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.499 billion yuan in 2026 [4][8]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's operating cash flow, expected to reach 1.626 billion yuan in 2024, up from 1.419 billion yuan in 2023 [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 7.57 yuan and 13.41 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of 7.72 yuan [6]. - The total market capitalization is reported at 20.23 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 2.62 billion shares [6][9].

事 件 点 评 宏 观 研 究 宏观研究 021-38674711 zhangjianyu029568@gtjas.com 汪浩(分析师) 0755-23976659 登记编号 S0880521120002 [Table_Report] 相关报告 克制的宽松：多目标权衡的管理艺术 围绕中国式现代化全面深化改革 2024.07.18 三产拖累 GDP，内需政策待加码 LPR 降息的窗口正在打开 2024.07.15 2024.07.14 ——2024 年 7 月 MLF&存款降息点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 张剑宇(研究助理) 登记编号 S0880124030031 wanghao025053@gtjas.com 本报告导读： 银行负债端成本全面下调，为后续调降资产端利率打开空间，我们提示后续继续下调 LPR 和存量房贷利率的可能性。在汇率压力阶段性缓解的当下，货币政策面临的多 重目标约束有所减弱，更加强调以我为主，应抓紧三季度利率调降的窗口期。 摘要： [Table事件： _Summary] 7 月 25 日早间，央行公告：以利率招标方式开展 2000 亿元中期借 贷便利（MLF）操作，7 月到期量为 103 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating that downstream inventory destocking has largely concluded and order recovery trends are evident, especially for leading manufacturers with strong market share and customer expansion potential [1] Core Viewpoints - The global textile manufacturing industry has undergone five major shifts, with leading manufacturers emerging during each transition, particularly benefiting from the movement of manufacturing centers to regions with lower labor costs [1] - Footwear manufacturers exhibit high industry concentration, with leading companies showcasing significant advantages in R&D and management capabilities [1] - Apparel manufacturers have lower industry concentration, with leading players focusing on vertical integration to capture higher value-added segments of the supply chain [1] Industry Overview - The global textile manufacturing industry has shifted from the UK, US, Japan, to the Asian Tigers, Mainland China, and Southeast Asia, with leading footwear manufacturers like Yue Yuen and Feng Tay emerging during the 1970s-1990s [1] - Leading apparel manufacturers such as Shenzhou International were established in 1990, benefiting from the industry's shift to Asia [1] Footwear Manufacturers - The footwear manufacturing industry is characterized by high concentration, labor-intensive processes, and significant barriers to entry due to complex production processes [1] - Competitive advantages for footwear manufacturers include strong management capabilities, fast turnaround times, and robust R&D capabilities, often developed through long-term collaborations with brands like Nike [1] Apparel Manufacturers - The apparel manufacturing industry has lower concentration compared to footwear, with many players focusing on specific segments of the supply chain [1] - Leading apparel manufacturers aim for vertical integration, particularly in high-value-added segments like fabric and garment production, with competitive advantages stemming from their ability to innovate in fabric and garment technologies [1]