产业观察 2024.07.17 66 期 产品研究中心 wanghao013539@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880513090004 登记编号 S0880524040001 2024 年上半年我国汽车产业发展稳中有进，呈现三大亮点。 中国成以色列第一大汽车供应国。 美国政府将拨款 17 亿美元推动电动汽车产业发展。 乘联会：6 月新能源车国内零售渗透率 48.4%。 | --- | --- | --- | |---------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | 目录 | | | 1. | 智能汽车资讯 ................................................. ...

股 票 研 究 我国与多国展开联训,美航母中期维护严重延误 [Table_Industry] 军工 2024.07.17 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------------|----------------------------| | [table_Authors | 彭磊](分析师) | 周明頔(研究助理) | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939792 | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880123070156 | 本报告导读: 军工板块反弹,军工上市公司集中披露半年报预告;我军密集参与国际联训,美航母 中期维护严重延误;大国博弈加剧是长期趋势,军工长期向好。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 国内智算服务市场爆发式增长 2024.07.15 税改 ...

股 票 研 究 我国与多国展开联训,美航母中期维护严重延误 [Table_Industry] 军工 2024.07.17 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------------|----------------------------| | [table_Authors | 彭磊](分析师) | 周明頔(研究助理) | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939792 | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880123070156 | 本报告导读: 军工板块反弹,军工上市公司集中披露半年报预告;我军密集参与国际联训,美航母 中期维护严重延误;大国博弈加剧是长期趋势,军工长期向好。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 国内智算服务市场爆发式增长 2024.07.15 税改 ...

风险提示：量化模型基于历史数据构建，而历史规律存在失效风险。 文章来源 单因子表现。沪深300内本周（2024-07-08至2024-07-12）超额较好的因子是标准化预期外单季度归母净利润-带漂移项、标准化预期外市盈率（归母）-带漂 移项、标准化预期外单季度营业收入-带漂移项。中证500内较好的是EPG分位数、分析师预测净利润增长率FY3、单季度扣非净利润同比增长率。中证1000内较 好的是单季度归母净利润同比增长率、单季度营业利润同比增长率、单季度扣非净利润同比增长率。中证2000内较好的是标准化预期外归母净利润同比、单季度 归母净利润同比增长率、标准化预期外归母净利润同比-带漂移项。中证全指内较好的是EPG分位数、单季度归母ROA变动、标准化预期外归母净利润同比。 大类因子表现。本周沪深300内超额收益较好的是超预期、成长、分析师超预期。中证500内较好的是成长、超预期、市值。中证1000内较好的是成长、超预 期、分析师。中证2000内较好的是超预期、成长、分析师超预期。中证全指内较好的是超预期、成长、分析师。 指数增强策略表现。成分股内选股，截至2024年7月12日，沪深300指数增强策略本周收益2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 462 HKD for 2024 [24][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's gaming and advertising sectors are expected to grow well, leading to continuous improvement in profitability. The anticipated revenue for FY24Q2 is 160.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [28][23]. - The gaming business is recovering, with projected revenue of 46.5 billion RMB for FY24Q2, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Domestic game revenue is expected to be 33.1 billion RMB, while overseas game revenue is projected at 13.5 billion RMB [12][28]. - The advertising sector is expected to see significant growth, with network advertising revenue projected to reach 30.8 billion RMB in FY24Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23% [13][28]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Adjusted revenue forecasts for FY2024 and FY2025 are set at 654.3 billion RMB and 703.7 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.4% and 7.5%. Adjusted net profit for FY2024 and FY2025 is projected at 197.2 billion RMB and 222.5 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.0% and 12.9% [11][8]. - The gross profit margin for FY24Q2 is expected to reach 52.9%, slightly up from the previous quarter, primarily due to improvements in the advertising business [7][11]. Gaming Business - The gaming segment is anticipated to recover, with revenue expected to be 46.5 billion RMB in FY24Q2, a 4.6% increase year-on-year. Notable titles include the new game "DNF Mobile," which has already generated over 400 million USD in revenue in the Chinese iOS market as of July 10 [12][28]. Advertising and Social Network - The report forecasts that the video account feature will drive network advertising revenue to 30.8 billion RMB in FY24Q2, marking a 23% increase year-on-year. The growth in live-streaming e-commerce is expected to contribute significantly to advertising revenue [13][28]. - Social network revenue is projected to be 30.2 billion RMB in FY24Q2, with a modest year-on-year growth of 1.5% [29][28]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is expected to reach 51.6 billion RMB in FY24Q2, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year growth, although the growth rate is slowing due to weak offline consumption [30][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of HKD 20.0 [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates stable growth in Xiaomi's smartphone business, continued growth in IoT and internet services, and the initiation of revenue generation from the automotive business. The adjusted net profit for FY24Q2 is expected to be RMB 4.35 billion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue for FY2024 and FY2025 is adjusted to RMB 337 billion and RMB 384.5 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 24.4% and 14.1%. The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 19.6 billion and RMB 20.2 billion, with year-on-year growth of 1.8% and 3.1% [4][8]. Q2 FY24 Performance Expectations - For FY24Q2, the expected revenue is RMB 86.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.4%. The smartphone revenue is projected at RMB 45.7 billion (up 25% YoY), IoT revenue at RMB 24.9 billion (up 12% YoY), and internet services revenue at RMB 8 billion (up 7.5% YoY) [4][8]. Automotive Business Insights - Xiaomi's automotive business is expected to deliver over 25,000 units in FY24Q2, generating more than RMB 6 billion in revenue. The projected delivery volumes for 2024 and 2025 are 111,000 units and 195,000 units, with corresponding revenues of RMB 27.8 billion and RMB 58.9 billion. However, a loss of RMB 11 billion is anticipated for the automotive business in 2024 due to initial R&D and operational costs [4][8][9]. Smartphone Business Analysis - The smartphone segment is expected to maintain a market share of 15% in China, with a stable performance across low-end, mid-range, and high-end models. Xiaomi's competitive edge lies in its technological innovation at comparable price points and successful expansion into overseas markets [4][8]. IoT and Internet Services Growth - The IoT business is projected to generate RMB 24.9 billion in FY24Q2, benefiting from peak air conditioning sales. Xiaomi's R&D expenditure reached RMB 19.1 billion in 2023, supporting continuous innovation in IoT products. The internet services segment is expected to earn RMB 8 billion in FY24Q2, driven by a strong user base and enhanced platform efficiency [4][9].

股 票 研 究 行 业 事 件 快 评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|---------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------|---------------------|------------| | [Table_Industry] | | | | | 保险 | | 2024.07.17 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | 预计寿险 NBV | 好于预期,财险 | COR 小幅承压 | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | | 2024 年 6 | 月上市险企保费数据点评 | [Table_subIndustry]细分行业评级 | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师 | 谢雨晟(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38674943 | 021-38 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|--------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------|-----------|------------| | [Table_Industry] | | | | | 环保 | | 2024.07.16 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | 火电降耗倒逼主、辅机设备更新 | | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | | | | [Table_subIndustry]细分行业评级 | | | | [table_Authors 徐强](分析师) | 邵潇(分析师) | 于歆(分析师) | | | | | 010-83939805 | 0755-23976520 | 021-38038345 | | | ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|---------------------------------|---------------------------| | [Table_Industry] | | | 批零贸易业 | | 2024.07.16 | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | 增持 | | 6 | 月出口数据延续暖意,龙头公司更稳健 | | : 增持 | | | ——零售出海观察系列第 40 | [Table_subIndustry]细分行业评级 | | | | | 批发零售业 | 增持 | | [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) | 陈笑(分析师) | 贸易 | 增持 | | 021-38677706 | 021-38677906 | | | | liuyuenan@ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has raised its profit forecast and target price, with a notable performance in the mid-year report exceeding market expectations. The company plans to issue convertible bonds for capacity expansion, indicating potential for further upward adjustments in annual performance [3]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The company has updated its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.923 billion, 4.903 billion, and 6.345 billion yuan, representing increases of 15.15%, 62.89%, and 61.61% respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected at 2.71, 6.92, and 8.95 yuan [3][4]. Performance Highlights - The mid-year report indicates a net profit range of 810 million to 950 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 180.89% to 229.44%. The second quarter net profit is expected to be between 486 million and 626 million yuan, with a median of 556 million yuan, surpassing market expectations [3][4]. Capacity Expansion Plans - The company's factory in Thailand is set to begin operations by the end of 2023, with a second phase expected to be completed in 2024. The company plans to raise 1.88 billion yuan through convertible bonds to fund projects totaling 2.42 billion yuan for capacity expansion [3][4]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve breakthroughs in 800G/1.6T products with several North American clients by 2025, indicating significant growth potential. The report anticipates continued demand for 400G products from overseas clients [3][4]. Target Price Adjustment - The target price has been raised to 173 yuan from a previous 93.87 yuan, reflecting a higher valuation multiple of 25x for 2025, which is above the industry average [3][5].