景气改善，国货领先 ——化妆品行业2024年中期投资策略 请参阅附注免责声明 1 请参阅附注免责声明 2 请参阅附注免责声明 3 01 行业大势：2022年触底、2023持续去库存、2024年景气度改善 • 2023年我国美妆个护市场规模为5480亿元，逐渐走出底部，2024年行业景气度有望持续改善。中国美妆个护行业自 2017年起加速增长，主要因消费升级+电商驱动；2020、21年受疫情扰动增速回落至7-9%；2022年增势被打破，主要 受疫情反复、消费力整体偏弱影响，美妆大盘-6.5%，期间品牌商为促进动销加大折扣力度，造成一定消费者端囤货。 2023年消费者囤货意愿减弱，逐步消化过往库存，实现弱修复，至2024年预计消费者手头库存去化接近尾声，恢复正常 购买周期，行业大盘有望持续修复，景气度环比呈改善态势。 图：我国化妆品行业2017-2021年高增后回落，2022年触底、2023年持续去库存，2024年有望迎来修复 2023年 2017年起受益消费 2020、2021 2022年消费者手 升级+电商渗透， 年受疫情扰 承压严 头库存消 2010-2016年，随经济增速逐年放缓，美妆个护行 行业加速扩容 ...

电力设备，乘风破浪 ——电力设备新能源2024年中期策略报告 请参阅附注免责声明 1 请参阅附注免责声明 2 请参阅附注免责声明 3 01 美国电力系统BPS由包括加拿大、美国本土以及墨西哥部分地区在内的东部、西部、魁北克和ERCOT（德克萨斯）四 个区域电网组成。区域电网之间交流线路电力传输受限，通过直流线路连接。1）美国现有超过97万公里交流输电线路 （>69kV），其中高压交流输电线路（>230kV）39万公里；直流输电线路（400-600kV）约2900公里。2）美国拥 有超过885万公里配电线路（<69kV）。 2021年BPS净发电量达约46亿MWh，其中天然气和石油为主要发电方式，发电量分别约16.5亿MWh和9.3亿MWh。 近年来天然气发电量占比逐渐增加，石油发电量占比逐渐减小。 图：美国电力系统由东部、西部、魁北克和德克萨斯 图：美国输电线路包括从低压到特高压共5类 图：2021年BPS净发电量达约46亿MWh 四个区域电网组成 ...

股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 建材/原材料 究 三 棵树(603737) [评Tab级le_I：nve st] 增持 零售有效下沉，工程逆势提升市占率 上 次评级: 增持 [目Tab标le_T价arg格et] ： 56.50 ——三棵树更新报告 上 次预测: 94.30 [当Ta前bl价e_格Cu：rP rice] 42.83 公 [table_A ut鲍ho雁rs]辛 (分析师) 花健祎(分析师) 司 0755-23976830 0755-23976858 [ Table_Date] 2024.06.15 baoyanxin@gtjas.com huajianyi@gtjas.com 更 登 记编号 S0880513070005 S0880521010001 新 本报告导读： 报 [交Ta易ble数_M据ar ket] 公司零售涂料持续向社区和乡镇市场下沉，工程涂料在行业出清背景下，保持竞争优 告 势市占率逆势提升。 52周内股价区间（元） 29.41-98.34 总市值（百万元） 22,572 投 资要点： 总股本/流通A股（百万股） 527/527 [T abl维e_持Su“mm增a持r ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 运输 究 2 024.06.15 [评Tab级le_I：nve st] 增持 暑运高峰或后移，发掘潜在高股息 上 次评级: 增持 ——交通运输行业周报 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 [table_A ut岳ho鑫rs] ( 分析师) 尹嘉骐(分析师) 0755-23976758 021-38038322 业 yuexin@gtjas.com yinjiaqi@gtjas.com [相Ta关ble报_R告ep ort] 周 登 记编号 S0880514030006 S0880524030004 运输《红海局势难以研判，航运市场影响分 报 化》 本报告导读： 2024.06.13 维持航空与油运增持评级，配置高股息。 运输《油运需求增长超预期，集运运价再创 新高》 2024.06.10 投资要点： 运输《【国君交运】油运需求增长超预期，集 [T abl航e_空Su：m2m0a2r4y]年 暑运预售将逐步加速，预计暑 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Micron Technology (MU.O) with a target price of $162 [3][11]. Core Insights - Micron Technology is positioned to benefit significantly from the AI revolution and the rebound in the storage cycle, indicating a rapid growth phase ahead [2]. - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of $24.946 billion, $37.619 billion, and $43.041 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.5%, 50.8%, and 14.4% [7][11]. - GAAP net profits are forecasted to be $2.234 billion, $10.420 billion, and $13.571 billion for the same fiscal years, with net profit margins increasing to 9.0%, 27.7%, and 31.5% [7][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the dual drivers of demand revolution and storage cycle for Micron's stock price, with expectations of significant valuation increases driven by AI demand [3][23]. 2. Storage Market Dynamics - The storage chip market is identified as a critical segment of the semiconductor industry, with DRAM and NAND accounting for approximately 97% of the market [17][19]. - Micron's historical performance is closely tied to the supply-demand cycle, with AI applications expected to trigger a new growth phase [23][27]. 3. Business Developments - The High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market is projected to exceed $10 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% [3][12]. - Micron is expected to improve its HBM market share as production capacity constraints are alleviated in the coming years [3][12]. 4. Financial Overview - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, highlighting a significant recovery in revenues and profits following a challenging FY2023, where revenues dropped to $15.541 billion [5][7]. - The anticipated recovery is supported by a reduction in capital expenditures and an improvement in the supply-demand balance for DRAM and NAND products [3][5]. 5. Competitive Landscape - Micron is one of the top three players in the global memory market, competing closely with Samsung and SK Hynix, particularly in the DRAM segment [19][20]. - The competitive dynamics are expected to evolve as Micron enhances its technological capabilities and expands its product offerings [3][19].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 机器人 究 2024.06.14 [评Tab级le_I：nve st] 增持 上 次评级: 增持 机器人手自由度提升，量产计划略低于预期 ——特斯拉人形机器人点评 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 [table_A ut徐ho乔rs]威 (分析师) 张越(分析师) 021-38676779 0755-23976385 业 xuqiaowei023970@gtjas.com zhangyue025639@gtjas.com [相Ta关ble报_R告ep ort] 事 登 记编号 S0880521020003 S0880522090004 机器人《Figure机器人再进化，具身智能加 件 速演进》 本报告导读： 2024.03.14 快 特斯拉召开2024年股东大会，宣布人形机器人最新进展，灵巧手自由度大幅提升， 机器人《英伟达GTC大会在即，人形机器人 评 量产计划略低于预期。 产业迎来密集催化》 2024.02.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in various fields, including flexible electronics, quantum computing, and biomedicine, indicating a robust growth trajectory for these sectors Future Information Sector - A new brain-like chip, Speck, has been developed, showcasing low power consumption and potential for advanced intelligent computing systems [9] - Breakthroughs in perovskite LED technology have achieved external quantum efficiency exceeding 30%, indicating strong potential for commercialization [10] Future Biological Sector - A novel online platform for accessing biological neurons has been launched, which could revolutionize bio-computing and research [19] - Immunotherapy using PD-1 antibody has shown to significantly improve survival rates in high-risk nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients, marking a potential shift in treatment standards [21] - A deep learning model has been successfully developed to identify embryonic development events, which could have broad applications across species [22] Next-Generation Manufacturing Sector - Research on asymmetric synthesis of dextromethorphan intermediates has achieved a significant increase in catalytic efficiency, paving the way for industrial applications [28] - A new method for the electrochemical synthesis of nylon monomer, adipic acid, has been developed, demonstrating high yields and efficiency [29] - A novel approach to producing high-quality graphene through oxygen-free chemical vapor deposition has been established, which could enhance large-scale production capabilities [30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the wholesale and retail industry and trade sector [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy issued by nine government departments, including the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission, to support the development of cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouse construction [2]. - The policy emphasizes five key areas: nurturing cross-border e-commerce operators, increasing financial support, enhancing infrastructure and logistics systems, optimizing regulation and services, and promoting standard rule construction and international cooperation [2]. - The report anticipates that the cross-border e-commerce sector will continue to grow, with leading companies expected to maintain strong performance despite challenges such as rising international logistics costs and uncertainties in U.S. policies [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the cross-border e-commerce sector, including: - B2B direction: Xiaoshangpin City, Jiao Dian Technology - Boutique direction: Anker Innovation, Saiwei Times, Zhiou Technology - General merchandise direction: Huakai Yibai, Jihong Co., benefiting from Dajian Cloud Warehouse [2]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating expected net profits for 2024 and 2025, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating: - Su Meida: 10.88 billion CNY (2024E), 12.1 billion CNY (2025E) - Huakai Yibai: 4.56 billion CNY (2024E), 5.78 billion CNY (2025E) - Jihong Co.: 4.35 billion CNY (2024E), 5.45 billion CNY (2025E) - Xiaoshangpin City: 27.99 billion CNY (2024E), 32.03 billion CNY (2025E) - Saiwei Times: 4.53 billion CNY (2024E), 6.1 billion CNY (2025E) - Zhiou Technology: 5.11 billion CNY (2024E), 6.19 billion CNY (2025E) - Ming Chuang You Pin: 28.69 billion CNY (2024E), 34.57 billion CNY (2025E) - Anker Innovation: 19.03 billion CNY (2024E), 22.02 billion CNY (2025E) - Mi Ao Exhibition: 2.69 billion CNY (2024E), 3.58 billion CNY (2025E) - Jiao Dian Technology: 4.73 billion CNY (2024E), 5.73 billion CNY (2025E) [3].

Industry Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the **merger and acquisition (M&A) activities** in the securities industry from 2012 to 2022 were driven by the "one control, one participation" policy and the need for innovation among high-quality securities firms [2] - **Highly integrated mergers** tend to yield better financial results, and the report recommends **leading securities firms with deep integration capabilities**, such as China Galaxy, CICC (H), CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [2] Key Points by Section 1. 2012-2022 Major Securities M&A Cases - The securities industry's M&A activities can be divided into three main phases, with the 2012-2022 period seeing a concentration of major M&A cases, including **CICC's acquisition of China Investment Securities** and **CITIC Securities' acquisition of CLSA** [5][6] - The **"one control, one participation" policy** and the need for innovation among high-quality securities firms were the main drivers of M&A during this period [5] 2. Drivers of M&A - The **"one control, one participation" policy** led to the restructuring of securities firms under **Central Huijin**, with the goal of achieving compliance and eventual listing [8][9] - High-quality securities firms pursued M&A to **drive business innovation**, especially as traditional brokerage revenues declined and the industry faced challenges from increased competition and lower commission rates [10] 3. Integration Strategies - **Central Huijin** focused on merging securities firms with **complementary business structures**, such as the merger of **Shenyin Wanguo and Hongyuan Securities**, which maintained independent operations post-merger [12][15] - **CITIC Securities** pursued **full integration** in its acquisitions, such as the **CLSA and Guangzhou Securities** deals, aiming for **organizational and operational synergy** [42][53] 4. Financial Outcomes of Integration - **Highly integrated mergers** led to better financial performance, with **CICC's acquisition of China Investment Securities** resulting in improved market share and ROE [59][61] - **CITIC Securities' integration of CLSA** and **Guangzhou Securities** also showed positive financial outcomes, with improved profitability and ROE post-integration [64][68] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends **leading securities firms with strong integration capabilities**, such as **China Galaxy, CICC (H), CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities**, as they are better positioned to achieve superior merger outcomes [72][73] - The **regulatory push for the development of top-tier investment banks** is expected to drive further M&A activity, benefiting firms with strong integration capabilities [72]

股 票 研 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业/社会服务 究 万 达电影(002739) [评Tab级le_I：nve st] 增持 头部影片陆续定档，将步入收获高峰期 上 次评级: 增持 [目Tab标le_T价arg格et] ： 18.52 ——万达电影更新报告 上 次预测: 18.52 [当Ta前bl价e_格Cu：rP rice] 12.60 公 [table_A ut陈ho筱rs] ( 分析师) 陈俊希(分析师) 李芓漪(分析师) 司 021-38675863 021-38032025 021-38038428 [ Table_Date] 2024.06.14 chenxiao@gtjas.com chenjunxi@gtjas.com liziyi@gtjas.com 更 登 记编号 S0880515040003 S0880520120009 S0880523080004 新 本报告导读： 报 [交Ta易ble数_M据ar ket] 随着暑期档头部影片陆续定档，公司有望受益于档期预期抬升，且公司参与出品发行 告 多部暑期档影片，内容带来的业绩增量望成为重要的边际。 52周内股价区间（元） 1 ...