Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, consistent with the previous rating [7][12]. Core Insights - The Xiaomi supply chain is expected to enter a new phase of heightened expectations, with the second pure electric SUV anticipated to be officially launched in H1 2025 [8][9]. - The Q4 passenger car sales are projected to remain strong due to the support of trade-in policies, although there may be fluctuations during policy gaps [9][12]. - The market risk appetite is currently high, with the Xiaomi supply chain, Tesla supply chain, and robotics being the main focus areas within the automotive sector [9][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended automotive stocks include Jianghuai Automobile, BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto, with beneficiary stocks such as Seres, Xpeng Motors, Geely, and Dongfeng Motor Group [9][12]. - For the Tesla supply chain, recommended stocks include Top Group, Shuanghuan Transmission, Rongtai Technology, Wuxi Zhenhua, New Spring, and Yinlun Holdings, with beneficiary stocks like Shiyun Circuit and Sanhua Intelligent Control [9][12]. - In the smart technology sector, recommended stocks are Xingyu Co., Kobot, Desay SV, Huayang Group, Huayi Technology, and Baolong Technology [9][12]. - For the high-growth new energy sector, recommended stocks include Ruihu Mould, Huguang Co., Songyuan Co., and Aikedi [9][12]. Market Trends - The new Xiaomi model is expected to enter a pre-heating phase, with the official unveiling of the SU7 on December 28, 2023, and its market launch on March 28, 2024 [9][12]. - The Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is continuously being iterated, with significant mileage achieved in the FSD version [9][12]. - Anticipated policy benefits for Tesla with the potential re-election of Trump, which may support Tesla's autonomous driving qualifications and production capacity in North America [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the tourism industry [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with high prosperity and bottom improvement, particularly in education, internet platforms, and tourism [5]. - Key recommendations include companies like Tuniu, Ctrip Group, and Changbai Mountain in the tourism sector, as well as educational firms such as New Oriental and Doushen Education [5]. - The report highlights the impact of the extended holiday policy, which adds two days off for citizens, potentially boosting local consumption [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Social Services Industry - The report notes the increase in public holidays, which may enhance consumer spending during peak seasons [5]. - The opening of new stores, such as the first offline Red Corner coffee shop by Xiaohongshu, indicates growth in the social services sector [5]. Retail Industry - Xiaohongshu's e-commerce reported a significant increase in merchants achieving over 10 million in sales during promotional events, indicating a robust retail environment [5]. - Dingdong Maicai's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 6.538 billion yuan, a 27.21% increase year-on-year, showcasing strong growth in the retail sector [5]. Tourism Industry - The report highlights significant performance discrepancies among tourism companies, recommending firms like Tongcheng Travel and Ctrip Group for their strong earnings potential [5]. - The extended holiday policy is expected to increase local consumption time, benefiting the tourism sector [7]. Key Company Announcements - Dingdong Maicai reported a Q3 2024 revenue of 6.538 billion yuan, up 27.21% year-on-year, with a single-quarter GMV of 7.267 billion yuan, reflecting strong market performance [5]. - Zhongjiao Holdings projected a net profit of approximately 420-590 million yuan for the 2024 fiscal year, indicating a growth of 5.4%-10.3% compared to the previous year [5]. - Nayuki Tea reported significant sales growth in its sugar-free beverage series, with a 16.4% increase year-on-year [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the basic chemical industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Viewpoints - The 10 trillion local debt resolution policy is expected to drive economic recovery, benefiting related products. Recommended are resilient companies with long-term growth potential and leading players in new materials with stable demand growth [5][6] - The chemical sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with significant pressure on profitability. The third quarter of 2024 saw a year-on-year revenue decline of 4.51% and a net profit drop of 16.34%. However, capital expenditure is decreasing, indicating potential for future supply-demand improvement [6][16] - The outcome of the U.S. elections is likely to strengthen expectations for falling oil prices, which could benefit related fine chemical products [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance and Price Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.52% while the basic chemical index fell by 3.53%, ranking 15th among 30 sectors [12][13] - Key price increases included sulfur (+13.36%), MAP (+10.28%), and vitamin A (+7.33%) [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies benefiting from domestic demand include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Longbai Group. New material leaders recommended are Ruifeng New Material and Blue Sky Technology [17][18] Key Company Tracking - Wanhua Chemical reported Q3 revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, but net profit fell by 12.67% due to maintenance and increased costs [22][23] - Hualu Hengsheng's Q3 revenue was 25.18 billion yuan, up 30.16% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 32.27% due to price pressures [28][29] - Juhua Co. maintained growth in Q3, with a focus on the refrigerant market, despite price declines in other segments [33][34] Sub-industry Insights - The new materials sector is expected to grow, with recommendations for companies like Blue Sky Technology and Ruifeng New Material, which have strong growth potential and technological advantages [45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the wholesale and retail industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - October retail sales exceeded expectations, driven by the early "Double Eleven" shopping promotions and the significant impact of the trade-in policy on consumer spending [4]. - The total retail sales in October showed a year-on-year growth of +4.8% (up from +3.2% in September) and a month-on-month increase of +1.6 percentage points [5]. - The retail sales excluding automobiles grew by +4.9% year-on-year (up from +3.6% in September) and +1.3 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - The retail sales for enterprises above designated size in October increased by +6.2% year-on-year (up from +2.6% in September) and +3.6 percentage points month-on-month [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Continue to focus on high-growth and bottom-improving sectors, including: 1. Education and internet platforms with high growth expectations: recommended companies include卓越教育集团, 思考乐教育, 新东方, 途虎-W [5]. 2. Affordable overseas selections: recommended companies include 名创优品, 小商品城, 绿联科技, 安克创新 [5]. 3. Tourism companies with varying performance: recommended companies include 同程旅行, 携程集团-S, 三特索道, 九华旅游, 长白山 [5]. 4. Long-term logic for gold jewelry under the backdrop of the rise of national trends: recommended companies include 老铺黄金, 潮宏基, 老凤祥 [5]. 5. Thematic directions: supermarket adjustments (recommended: 永辉超市), policy expectations (fertility and tourism), and education AI (beneficiary: 豆神教育) [5]. Retail Sales Performance - In October, retail sales of goods showed a year-on-year increase of +4.8% with a month-on-month increase of +1.6 percentage points, while the retail sales of enterprises above designated size increased by +6.8% month-on-month [5]. - The performance of various categories in October was notably influenced by the "Double Eleven" promotions and the trade-in policy, with cosmetics and home appliances showing strong growth [5]. - Online retail sales growth accelerated, with the online retail sales of physical goods reaching 123,632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +8.8% [5]. Category-Specific Insights - Cosmetics grew by +40.1% year-on-year, while gold and silver jewelry saw a decline of -2.7% year-on-year but improved by +5.1 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - Home appliances experienced a year-on-year growth of +39.2% with a month-on-month increase of +18.7 percentage points [5]. - The online penetration rate for physical goods retail reached 25.9% in October, slightly up by +0.2 percentage points [5].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Oversold Rebound Signal **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential short-term rebounds in industries that have experienced significant price declines, aiming to capture mean-reversion opportunities[14] **Model Construction Process**: The model uses historical data to identify oversold conditions based on predefined thresholds. Once the signal is triggered, the model evaluates the subsequent holding period performance, including average returns, win rates, and profit-loss ratios over 5-day and 10-day horizons[14][15] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance in backtesting, with high win rates and favorable profit-loss ratios, indicating its effectiveness in capturing short-term rebounds[14][15] - **Model Name**: Platform Breakout Signal **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries breaking out of consolidation phases, signaling potential upward momentum[14] **Model Construction Process**: The model monitors price movements to detect breakout patterns from established price ranges. Once a breakout is confirmed, the model tracks the performance over specific holding periods, analyzing metrics such as average returns, win rates, and profit-loss ratios over 5-day and 10-day horizons[14][15] **Model Evaluation**: The model shows moderate effectiveness, with reasonable win rates and profit-loss ratios, suggesting it can capture breakout opportunities but with less consistency compared to the oversold rebound signal[14][15] - **Model Name**: Stock Price Pressure Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates short-term selling pressure across industries to identify sectors with lower resistance to price increases[17] **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates theoretical selling pressure for each industry and ranks them accordingly. Industries with the lowest pressure are identified as having higher potential for price appreciation[17][18] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively highlights sectors with lower selling pressure, which historically outperformed the market in backtesting[17][18] Model Backtesting Results - **Oversold Rebound Signal** - 5-day average return: 4.56% - 5-day win rate: 71% - 5-day profit-loss ratio: 1.87 - 10-day average return: 7.22% - 10-day win rate: 62% - 10-day profit-loss ratio: 1.66 - Average holding period: 5.2 days - Average holding return: 6.30% - Overall win rate: 76% - Overall profit-loss ratio: 2.3[14][15] - **Platform Breakout Signal** - 5-day average return: 3.30% - 5-day win rate: 62% - 5-day profit-loss ratio: 1.45 - 10-day average return: 5.10% - 10-day win rate: 61% - 10-day profit-loss ratio: 1.70 - Average holding period: 9 days - Average holding return: 6.77% - Overall win rate: 60% - Overall profit-loss ratio: 2.15[14][15] - **Stock Price Pressure Model** - Backtesting shows that holding the five industries with the lowest selling pressure generated approximately 15% excess returns relative to the Wind All A Index during the testing period[18][19]

Group 1: Market Trends - Last week, passive funds turned to a net outflow, with total A-shares trading volume decreasing slightly, while A500 ETF continued to expand, leading to a decline in the share of CSI 300 ETF, indicating a substitution effect[2] - The total number of stock ETFs is 812, with a total scale of CNY 2.89 trillion, where broad index ETFs account for 59.4% of the scale[2] - Last week, stock ETFs saw a net outflow of CNY 191.5 billion, reversing the slight net inflow from the previous week[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Passive funds continued to flow into food and beverage sectors, while outflows were observed in electronics and new energy sectors[2] - The net inflow of passive funds in the food and beverage sector was CNY 16.8 billion, with major inflows into stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye[2] - Cumulative net inflow of passive funds in the last eight weeks reached CNY 1830.3 billion, with significant outflows from non-bank financials and media sectors[2] Group 3: ETF Performance - The median premium/discount rate for ETFs is currently 0.07%, with only 1.1% of ETFs having a premium rate exceeding 1%[2] - The concentration of individual stock holdings in passive funds increased, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 44.7% and the top 20 for 63% of the total holdings[2] - Passive funds are currently overweight in technology, consumer, and financial sectors, while underweight in cyclical and midstream manufacturing sectors[2]

Group 1: Market Conditions - The issuance of local replacement bonds is expected to create short-term "spatial frictions," but overall funding pressure remains manageable[4] - The average excess reserve ratio in the banking system at the end of October 2024 is estimated at 1.16%, higher than 1.06% in the same period of 2023, indicating a relatively loose liquidity environment[15] - The issuance of 2 trillion yuan in local replacement bonds in 2024 is not expected to exert significant pressure on market liquidity compared to the fourth quarter of 2023[15] Group 2: Bond Issuance and Market Reactions - The first batch of local replacement bonds has a high issuance rate of 2.26%, significantly deviating from the predicted average rate of 2.16%[14] - Market willingness to absorb local replacement bonds appears weak, leading to changes in expectations for future supply[14] - Short-term fluctuations in local bond issuance may reflect regional and institutional preferences, requiring time for coordination among banks and local governments[19] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Short-term focus should be on liquid instruments, particularly 10-year government bonds and policy bank bonds, which are expected to perform well[25] - Long-term strategies should consider waiting for yield spreads to widen, enhancing the attractiveness of local bonds and related products[26] - The potential for further monetary easing, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, may create opportunities for lower interest rates in the future[26] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include higher-than-expected concentration in government bond issuance and potential tightening of liquidity beyond expectations[42] - The market may experience volatility due to regional disparities in local bond supply and demand, impacting overall market expectations[28]

Group 1: M&A Policy and Market Trends - A new round of M&A policies is focused on "hard technology" and upstream/downstream integration, aiming to optimize resource allocation and support industrial transformation[11] - The Shanghai government approved the "Action Plan for Supporting M&A of Listed Companies (2025-2027)" on November 12, 2024, emphasizing projects that enhance new productivity and strengthen key industries[11] - The number of major M&A announcements reached 23 in October 2024, marking a monthly high since 2016, indicating a resurgence in M&A activity[11] Group 2: Key Sectors and Participants - Major M&A activities are concentrated in technology sectors such as machinery, automotive, electronics, and biomedicine, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) accounting for approximately 40% of the initiators[11][19] - The focus on "hard technology" and industry chain integration is expected to attract significant participation from central and local SOEs, which are becoming key players in the M&A landscape[11][19] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Potential M&A directions include companies facing industry competition issues, those undergoing changes in actual control, and sectors with low industry concentration and severe homogenization, such as steel and traditional industries[11][19] - Financial health is crucial for successful M&A; companies with high cash ratios, low debt levels, and low goodwill are better positioned for M&A activities[11][19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - There are uncertainties regarding M&A review processes and potential changes in regulatory policies, which could impact the M&A landscape[11][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical industry [3]. Core Insights - Huawei's development of a physical intelligence ecosystem is expected to boost the humanoid robot industry, with a focus on creating a comprehensive AI capability from chips to models [4][5]. - The mechanical equipment index fell by 3.20% last week, indicating ongoing low industry sentiment, although certain sectors like semiconductor equipment and engineering machinery show signs of recovery [4]. - The report highlights opportunities in semiconductor equipment due to restrictions on the import of advanced chips, suggesting a shift towards domestic alternatives [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Overview - The overall mechanical industry remains sluggish, but specific sectors such as semiconductor equipment, shipbuilding containers, and engineering machinery are showing potential for recovery [4]. 2. Key Industry Developments - **Humanoid Robots**: Huawei's innovation center aims to foster collaboration among 16 companies to enhance the humanoid robot sector [5]. - **Semiconductor Equipment**: The halt in advanced chip supplies from TSMC to mainland China is expected to accelerate domestic equipment upgrades and replacements [5]. - **Gas Prices**: Prices for bulk gases have decreased slightly, but the year-on-year decline is narrowing, indicating potential recovery in demand [5]. 3. Recommended Stocks - **Engineering Machinery**: Recommended stocks include Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, with beneficiaries like LiuGong [5]. - **Gas Equipment**: Suggested stocks are Hangzhou Oxygen and Shaanxi鼓动力 [5]. - **3C Equipment**: Recommended companies include Opto and Bozhong Precision [5]. - **Humanoid Robots**: Focus on Top Group and Best, with beneficiaries like Sanhua Intelligent Control and OBI Optical [5].

策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.17 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-----------------|--------------------------| | | | | | | | | 成交热度回落，各指数估值普跌 | | | | [Table_Authors] | 方奕 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | 021-38031658 | | ——情绪与估值 11 月第 3 期 | | | | | fangyi020833@gtjas.com | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | 本报告导读： | | | | | ...