Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the profit growth of industrial enterprises has improved, driven by a seasonal rise in profit margins and a decrease in cost rates due to falling upstream prices. The performance of industries benefiting from equipment renewal policies and improved export conditions is relatively strong [7][14][9] - In June, the profit margin for industrial enterprises rose to 6.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding seasonal trends. Revenue growth for the month was 2.9% year-on-year, with a slight decline in volume but an increase in price [8][14] - The report highlights that upstream coal mining has shown significant improvement, while the equipment manufacturing sector has provided substantial support. The profit growth of downstream industries such as beverages and pharmaceuticals has also improved [9][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises in June increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly up from the previous value of 3.45%. The profit growth rate is stronger than seasonal expectations [13][14] - The structure of profits across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors has changed, with midstream equipment manufacturing's profit share increasing significantly to 33.2%, while the shares of upstream mining and midstream raw materials have decreased [15][14] - Inventory growth has continued to rise, with finished goods inventory increasing by 4.7% year-on-year by the end of June, indicating a potential recovery in inventory replenishment driven by price adjustments [16][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic context, noting that the central bank has implemented multiple interest rate cuts, reflecting the commitment to achieving economic and social development goals. This is expected to facilitate more funds entering the real economy [11][18] - The focus on high-quality development is emphasized, with the government planning to support large-scale equipment updates and the renewal of consumer goods, with an estimated investment of over 3 trillion yuan in the next five years [24][33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is concentrating on sectors such as smart connected vehicles, new materials, and low-altitude economy to accelerate the development of new productive forces [25][35]

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价格及基数影响持续，库存增速继续回升。6 月末，产成品存货累计同比 4.7%，前值 3.6%，基数由 3.2%进一步下降至 2.2%，PPI 同比降幅也继续收窄，但实际库存上升的幅度 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|------------------------------------|-----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|---------| | | 行业名称 | 2011年以来 分位数水平 | 2024/5 | 2024/4 | 2024/3 | 2024/2 | 2023/12 | | | 娱炭开采和牌造业 | 30% | -37 | -27 | -1.4 | -2 1 | -6.9 | | | 石油和天然气开采业 | 60% | ૨.૬ | 7.8 | 10.2 | 5.7 | -3.2 | | 上游开采 | 国色金属矿采选业 | 1% | -20 | -19.3 | -14.4 | -16.5 | -16.9 | ...

行 业 研 究 银 行 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月27日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -27% -19% -10% -2% 6% 15% 23% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.信贷节奏更均衡，增量与结构再平 衡——银行业"量价质"跟踪（一） 2.存款重定价有望缓冲资产端压力 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 信贷新旧动能切换 ] ，息差压力明显缓解 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（三） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 2022年以来新旧动能切换，信贷结构调整。2022以来房地产对经济驱动明显放缓，总量+ 结构货币政策保持宽松，银行信贷规模实现较快增长。结构上来看，高质量发展阶段新旧 动能切换，不同领域信贷分化。一方面，普惠、高端制造、科技、绿色等领域信贷需求 ...

[table_main] 宏 观 简 评 投资要点 ➢ 美国经济缓慢降温。2024年二季度美国GDP增速及PCE通胀率均高于市场预期。企业和 政府仍在增加投资，居民消费虽然放缓但仍有韧性，商家补库也支撑了经济增长。二季度 美国经济处于在通胀中缓慢下行的状态，并未大幅恶化。 ➢ 住宅投资环比增速下滑。住宅投资年化环比增速下滑1.4%，一季度为正增长16%，对GDP 的贡献为-0.05%。美国房地产市场需求受高利率影响下滑。二季度，美国30年期固定抵押 贷款利率升至7.0%，仅略低于2023年四季度的峰值7.3%。新建房数量近几个月也持续下 行。 ➢ 美国经济"软着陆"的希望依然很大。7月24日，由于大型科技公司业绩不佳，市场担忧 美国经济衰退，美股主要指数均有回调，资金在避险情绪下涌入债券市场导致美债收益率 下滑。数据公布后，美股股指回升，美债收益率上涨，但仍低于7月24日时的水平。市场 预期美联储于9月降息。当前，美国经济未出现急剧衰退的迹象，下半年很可能继续缓慢 下行，美元资产可能仍有支撑，但板块轮动可能更明显。 总 量 研 究 [美国经济继续慢着陆 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2024年 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月26日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 张晶磊 zjlei@longone.com.cn 联系人 马小萱 mxxuan@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -39% -30% -21% -12% -3% 6% 15% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.需求保持稳健，成本端或将改善— —轮胎行业月报（2024年6月） 2.卫星化学（002648）：α-烯烃再取 新成果，业绩增长仍存新空间——公 司简评报告 3.制冷剂配额调整推动行业格局持 续优化——氟化工行业月报（2024年 6月） [table_invest] 标配 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月26日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn ➢ 1.立华股份（300761）：上半年实现扭亏，猪鸡成本持续改善——公司简评报告 财经要闻 ➢ 2.国有大行集体存款降息：两年期及以上均下调20个基点 ➢ 4.美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率、PCE价指数均高于预期 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | | 1.1. 立华股份 ( 300761 ): 上半年实现扭亏，猪鸡成本持续改善――公司简评报告 .. | | 1.2. 卫星化学（002648） α-烯烃再取新成果，业绩增长仍存新空间——公司简 | | 评报告 | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/8 | --- | --- | |----------------- ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of internal momentum within the industry, focusing on new productive forces and technological advancements as key drivers for growth [1][55]. - In the first half of the year, economic performance showed a trend of supply exceeding demand, indicating potential challenges for industries reliant on consumer spending [2][9]. - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential improvement in sales year-on-year, driven by policy measures aimed at inventory reduction and housing construction [27][6]. Group 2 - Consumer recovery is slow, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, as evidenced by retail sales growth rates [32][11]. - Exports remain resilient but face uncertainties due to increased tariffs from the US and EU on Chinese products, which could impact future trade dynamics [13][16]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in inventory levels, which typically correlates with increased investment, although demand remains weak [21][41]. Group 3 - The high-tech manufacturing sector is showing robust investment growth, outpacing overall manufacturing, indicating a shift towards advanced industries [55]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply-side reforms in the chemical industry, driven by low-carbon policies, which are expected to enhance the competitive landscape for leading firms [116][117]. - The copper market is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, supported by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors [111][86].

Key Recommendations - Satellite Chemical (002648) achieved a revenue of 19.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.59%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.056 billion yuan, an increase of 12.51% [11] - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.53% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.34% [11] - The revenue breakdown by product for Q2 includes functional chemicals at 9.247 billion yuan, polymer new materials at 5.488 billion yuan, new energy materials at 357 million yuan, and other businesses at 4.308 billion yuan [11] C2 Business Performance - The average price of key C2 products in Q2 2024 was as follows: HDPE at 8,646.77 yuan/ton, ethylene oxide at 6,880.65 yuan/ton, and ethylene glycol at 4,486.05 yuan/ton, with respective changes of +363.44, +208.98, and -105.28 yuan/ton compared to Q1 2024 [12] - The price of ethylene glycol has risen from an average of 4,165.94 yuan/ton in 2023 to approximately 4,650 yuan/ton currently [12] - The company has optimized its production efficiency during maintenance, enhancing the stability and quality of operations [12] C3 Business Insights - In Q2 2024, the average prices for C3 products were: PP powder at 7,608.06 yuan/ton, acrylic acid at 7,177.42 yuan/ton, and butyl acrylate at 9,835.48 yuan/ton, with changes of +179.73, +867.58, and -66.16 yuan/ton respectively compared to Q1 2024 [13] - The successful commissioning of the first phase of the 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project will enhance the company's efficiency in utilizing propylene resources [13] - The new projects are expected to support the company's growth trajectory by establishing a closed-loop supply chain for propylene and its derivatives [13] Machinery Equipment Industry - The machinery equipment sector is focusing on global expansion through mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Giant Star Technology acquiring regional leaders to enhance their market presence [15] - The global market is witnessing a Matthew effect, where leading companies are likely to gain more market share due to their financial and managerial capabilities [16] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong product matrices and overseas layouts, such as XCMG, Zoomlion, and Sany Heavy Industry [17] Tire Industry Overview - The tire industry is experiencing stable demand, with expectations of improved cost conditions as raw material prices are projected to decline [29] - The production capacity utilization rate remains high, particularly for semi-steel tires, while full-steel tires face competitive pressures [29] - The export share of domestic tire manufacturers is expected to increase as production facilities are established in Southeast Asia [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved a turnaround in profitability in the first half of 2024, driven by improved cost management in chicken and pig farming [3][6] - The sales volume of yellow feathered chickens increased by 10.7% year-on-year, reaching 235 million, with revenue of 6.682 billion yuan, a growth of 11.4% [5] - The average selling price of yellow feathered chickens was 13.2 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [5] - The complete cost of raising yellow feathered chickens decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 12.2 yuan/kg in the first half of 2024, primarily due to lower feed material costs [5] - The company expects continued price recovery for yellow chickens in the second half of the year, contributing to performance growth [5] Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In the first half of 2024, the company sold 43.49 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with revenue of 0.835 billion yuan, up 44.2% [15] - The average selling price of pigs was 15.9 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.1% increase year-on-year [15] - The company anticipates a total pig output of over 1.2 million for the year, supported by a stable production capacity of 1.8 million pigs [15] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 0.831 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 289.99% [6] - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 1.00 yuan, 2.24 yuan, and 1.54 yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are estimated at 23.01, 10.29, and 15.01 times [6] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced costs in both chicken and pig farming, with significant improvements in profitability expected to continue [6][15] - The complete cost of pig farming decreased from 17.6 yuan/kg in Q1 to 14.8 yuan/kg in Q2 of 2024 [15]