证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2024 年 05月 16日 通信 海外巨头稳步推进 AI 布局，持续引领大模型及应用端深化发展 股票 股票 投资 EPS （元） PE 强于大市（维持评级） 代码 名称 评级 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 300308.SZ 中际旭创 买入 6.34 8.72 26.89 19.55 行业走势 300394.SZ 天孚通信 买入 3.07 4.23 44.29 32.15 600941.SH 中国移动 买入 6.71 7.46 14.74 13.26 通信 沪深300 601728.SH 中国电信 买入 0.37 0.42 15.76 13.88 26% 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 19% 13% 6% 事件：5月13-14日，OpenAI与谷歌分别陆续召开发布会，公布了公司最新 0% AI大模型布局及一系列 AI新品和功能升级。 -7% -13% OpenAI 发布最新大模型，性能表现实现稳步提升。OpenAI 在活动中发布 -20% 了新模型GPT-4o，可以接受文本、音频和图像三者组合作为输入，并生成文 2023-05 2023-09 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [3][24]. Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported a significant increase in profitability, with Q1 2024 net profit reaching 41.9 billion HKD, a year-on-year growth of 62%, exceeding market expectations [3][4]. - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 was 159.5 billion HKD, a 6% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations [3][4]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross margin, which reached 52.6% in Q1 2024, driven by an increase in high-margin business revenue [4][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022A: 554,552 million HKD - 2023A: 609,015 million HKD - 2024E: 669,368 million HKD - Growth rate (2023A): 9.8% [3][12] - **Net Profit**: - 2022A: 188,243 million HKD - 2023A: 115,216 million HKD - 2024E: 173,678 million HKD - Growth rate (2023A): -38.8% [3][12] - **EPS**: - 2022A: 19.98 HKD - 2023A: 12.23 HKD - 2024E: 18.44 HKD [3][12] - **P/E Ratio**: - 2022A: 17.6 - 2023A: 28.7 - 2024E: 19.1 [3][12] Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: - Q1 2024 gaming revenue was 48.1 billion HKD, with domestic gaming revenue at 34.5 billion HKD, showing a slight decline of 2% year-on-year due to revenue deferral [5]. - **Online Advertising**: - Q1 2024 online advertising revenue grew by 26% year-on-year to 26.5 billion HKD, driven by the strong performance of video ads [7][9]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: - Revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to 52.3 billion HKD, benefiting from the video account ecosystem [7][9]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth for Tencent Holdings, estimating revenues of 669.4 billion HKD in 2024, 729.3 billion HKD in 2025, and 788.9 billion HKD in 2026 [9]. - Expected net profits are projected at 173.7 billion HKD for 2024, 194.9 billion HKD for 2025, and 214.1 billion HKD for 2026 [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in high-margin businesses such as mini-program games and video account advertising [9].

证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2024 年 05月 16日 通信 海外巨头稳步推进 AI 布局，持续引领大模型及应用端深化发展 股票 股票 投资 EPS （元） PE 强于大市（维持评级） 代码 名称 评级 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 300308.SZ 中际旭创 买入 6.34 8.72 26.89 19.55 行业走势 300394.SZ 天孚通信 买入 3.07 4.23 44.29 32.15 600941.SH 中国移动 买入 6.71 7.46 14.74 13.26 通信 沪深300 601728.SH 中国电信 买入 0.37 0.42 15.76 13.88 26% 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 19% 13% 6% 事件：5月13-14日，OpenAI与谷歌分别陆续召开发布会，公布了公司最新 0% AI大模型布局及一系列 AI新品和功能升级。 -7% -13% OpenAI 发布最新大模型，性能表现实现稳步提升。OpenAI 在活动中发布 -20% 了新模型GPT-4o，可以接受文本、音频和图像三者组合作为输入，并生成文 2023-05 2023-09 ...

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2024 年 05 月 16 日 投资策略研究 去库存再起，坚定看好地产链修复空间 政府进一步出台政策维护房地产行业正常运行。中共中央政治局 4 月 30 日 召开会议。"会议强调，要持续防范化解重点领域风险。继续坚持因城施策， 压实地方政府、房地产企业、金融机构各方责任，切实做好保交房工作，保 障购房人合法权益。要结合房地产市场供求关系的新变化、人民群众对优质 住房的新期待，统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措施，抓紧构 建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产高质量发展。"随着中央的定调和调控，地 方政策及时跟进。西安、杭州两所新一线城市在 5 月 9 日出台了全面取消住 房限购的政策。截至目前为止，除了北京、上海、广州、深圳四个一线城市， 仅剩海南省、天津市仍处于部分开放限购状态。为了消化存量房产、促进房 地产高质量发展，各地陆续出台了"以旧换新"政策，旨在通过各方合作， 激活市场、提振信心，稳定房地产市场。 当前我国商品房整体销售偏弱且库存偏高，二手房情况略优于新房。2024 年 一季度，我国商品房销售额同比下降 27.6%，延续了过去两年的颓势。中国 商品房待售 ...

万润股份（002643.SZ） 创新驱动长期成长，看好公司多产品领域布局 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 05 月 16 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,080 | 4,305 | 4,577 | 5,281 | 5,891 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 16.6 | -15.3 | 6.3 | 15.4 | 11.5 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 721 | 763 | 685 | 884 | 986 | 行业 | 基础化工 | | 增长率 yo ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 05月 15日 扬杰科技（300373.SZ） 24 年 Q1 业绩同比基本持平，关注车载碳化硅模块上车进展 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 买入（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 5,404 5,410 6,499 8,002 9,238 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 22.9 0.1 20.1 23.1 15.5 归母净利润（百万元） 1,060 924 1,035 1,301 1,579 行业 电子 增长率yoy（%） 38.0 -12.8 12.0 25.7 21.3 2024年5月14日收盘价（元） 37.47 ROE（%） 17.3 10.6 11.3 12.7 13.5 总市值（百万元） 20,346.77 EPS最新摊薄（元） 1.95 1.70 1.91 2.40 2.91 流通市值（百万元） 20,307.22 P/E（倍） 19.2 22.0 19.7 15.6 12.9 总股本（百万股） 543.01 P/B（倍） 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8 流通股本（百万股） 541.96 资料来源：公司财 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on the expected strong growth in the company's performance and market demand for PCB and semiconductor equipment [5][32]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous revenue growth, with a 2023 revenue of 829 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.07%, and a net profit of 179 million yuan, up 31.28% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is benefiting from the high-end upgrade of its product system, particularly in the PCB market, which has led to a significant increase in market penetration and revenue growth [2]. - The company has a robust order backlog for the second quarter of 2024, with expectations for continued growth driven by both domestic and international customer demand [2][11]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's gross margin was 42.62%, a slight decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 0.69 percentage points to 21.63% [2]. - The company reported a net profit of 179 million yuan for 2023, with projections for 2024-2026 net profits of 271 million yuan, 351 million yuan, and 498 million yuan, respectively [5][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.36 yuan, with forecasts of 2.06 yuan, 2.67 yuan, and 3.79 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5][25]. Business Development - The company is expanding its product offerings in the semiconductor field, with significant advancements in direct-write lithography technology and a strong focus on high-end PCB products [8][12]. - The company has successfully entered international markets, with equipment sales to countries such as Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Australia, indicating a strong growth trajectory in overseas business [12]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic partnerships, such as with VTEC in Japan, to enhance its market presence and technological capabilities [12].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 05月 16日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 公司短期内业绩承压，看好公司制冷剂配额优势，盈利水平有望逐 步回升 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 买入（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 21,489 20,655 24,192 27,257 30,195 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 19.5 -3.9 17.1 12.7 10.8 归母净利润（百万元） 2,381 944 2,644 3,471 4,536 行业 基础化工 增长率yoy（%） 114.7 -60.4 180.2 31.3 30.7 2024年5月15日收盘价（元） 25.83 ROE（%） 15.2 5.9 14.4 16.1 17.6 总市值（百万元） 69,734.44 EPS最新摊薄（元） 0.88 0.35 0.98 1.29 1.68 流通市值（百万元） 69,734.44 P/E（倍） 29.3 73.9 26.4 20.1 15.4 总股本（百万股） 2,699.75 P/B（倍） 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.2 2.7 流通股本（百万股） 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 05月 15日 兆驰股份（002429.SZ） LED 景气提升盈利向好，23 年业绩同比快速增长 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 增持（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 15,028 17,167 20,985 24,221 26,638 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） -33.3 14.2 22.2 15.4 10.0 归母净利润（百万元） 1,146 1,588 2,123 2,549 2,984 行业 家电 增长率yoy（%） 244.1 38.6 33.7 20.1 17.1 2024年5月14日收盘价（元） 5.26 ROE（%） 8.4 10.8 13.3 14.1 14.0 总市值（百万元） 23,811.71 EPS最新摊薄（元） 0.25 0.35 0.47 0.56 0.66 流通市值（百万元） 23,797.99 P/E（倍） 20.8 15.0 11.2 9.3 8.0 总股本（百万股） 4,526.94 P/B（倍） 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 流通股本（百万股） 4,524.33 资料来源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.006 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 316 million yuan, up 55.53% year-on-year [2][19]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 864 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.87%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 41.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 71 million yuan, down 10.28% year-on-year and 26.31% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company has set ambitious targets, aiming for signed contracts of 8 billion yuan in 2024 and 10 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a strong outlook for the LED display industry and the new energy storage business [21]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5.734 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.059 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.3% [19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 434 million yuan in 2024 to 804 million yuan in 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [21]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 29.57%, with a slight decrease of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 0.44 percentage points to 7.72% [13]. Market Trends - The global LED display market is recovering, with a market size of 7.564 billion USD in 2023, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [20]. - The company has invested approximately 400 million yuan in R&D from 2021 to 2023, focusing on technologies such as Micro LED and virtual shooting, which have significantly contributed to its product offerings and sales growth [32]. Business Development - The company’s domestic signed contracts grew by approximately 93% year-on-year, reaching 25 billion yuan in 2023, while international contracts increased by 26% to 28 billion yuan [30]. - The company has launched 55 new products in 2023, with sales of Micro LED products increasing by over 200% year-on-year, showcasing its innovation capabilities [32].