美国对华二次加税点评 2025 年/3 月 | 时间 | 美国 | 中国 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2月1日 | 特朗普宣布对来自中国的全部商品加征10% | 2月4日宣布：对来自美国的液化天然气、煤 | | | 关税，对来自加拿大和墨西哥的全部商品征 | 炭加征15%关税，对原油、农业机械、大排 | | | 收25%关税（对加拿大能源征收10%关税）。 | 量汽车、皮卡加征10%关税。 | | | 后于2月3日表示暂缓加征加、墨两国关税。 | | | 2月13日 | 宣布征收对等关税 | | | 2月26日 | 宣布将对来自欧盟的汽车和其他商品征收 | | | | 25%关税 | | | 2月27日 | 宣布对华额外征收10%关税 | | | 3月3日 | 宣布对来自加拿大和墨西哥的全部商品征收 | 3月4日宣布：从3月10日起，对来自美国的 | | | 25%关税将于3月4日正式生效（后又于3月6 | 鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花加征15%关税；对 | | | 日宣布延迟征收）；对等关税将于4月2日开 | 高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、 | | | 始征收 | 蔬菜、乳制品加征10 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The "America First Investment Policy" aims to maintain a strong and open investment environment in the U.S. while protecting against foreign investment threats[1] - The policy encourages investments from allies and partners, particularly in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence[2] - A "fast track" procedure will be established to facilitate investments from specific allied nations in critical sectors[2] Group 2: Restrictions on Foreign Investment - The policy will limit investments from foreign adversaries in key sectors such as technology, healthcare, and energy, particularly focusing on sensitive technologies like AI[3] - U.S. companies will be restricted from investing in industries that advance China's military-civil fusion strategy, including semiconductors and biotechnology[6] - The scope of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) will be expanded to include emerging and foundational technologies[3] Group 3: Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The memorandum explicitly targets China, linking economic security to national security and criticizing past policies that facilitated China's industrial growth[8] - Future Chinese investments in the U.S. may face stricter scrutiny, especially in critical technology sectors[8] - The policy reflects a long-term competitive relationship between the U.S. and China, particularly in advanced manufacturing and AI technologies[10] Group 4: Market Impact and Future Considerations - The immediate economic impact of the policy is expected to be limited, as recent trends have already shifted capital away from sensitive tech sectors[10] - The memorandum introduces uncertainty for cross-border capital flows, particularly affecting publicly traded securities[10] - The implementation of the policy may take time, as seen in previous legislative cycles, with significant adjustments likely before final guidelines are established[10]

2025/02/24 宏观经济研究员 杨曦 010-66555831 xi_yang@chiefgroup.com.hk 民营企业座谈会释放积极信号 2 月 17 日上午，民营企业座谈会在京召开，国家领导同来自全国各行各业民营企业负责人面 面对进行了座谈。 领导讲话关键词 高质量发展：由规模扩张向价值创造的战略转型 决策层将改革重心转向质量跃升战略。区别于过往的规模导向，当前政策着力构建全要素价 值创新体系，这实质上是对新型生产力发展范式的系统性阐释： 科技创新竞争力：明确将资源配置向智能装备、清洁能源、数字经济等战略领域倾斜，支持 民营企业构建全球价值链控制能力。 服务支撑体系：税务系统推出的"春雨润企"专项行动实现服务迭代，通过精准化需求响应机 制破解经营主体发展梗阻，形成覆盖企业全生命周期的政务服务体系。 国际化布局：民营经济成为全球资源配置先锋力量 尽管国有资本海外布局日趋成熟，但真正实现全球价值链渗透的突破性案例多源自民营企业 群体。以通信设备龙头和短视频平台为代表的新锐力量，正在重塑国际贸易格局。最新统计数据 显示，重点区域民营经济主体跨境贸易规模实现两位数增长，新能源汽车领军企业境外销量增幅 突 ...

货币属性 作为黄金价格的计价货币，美元指数通常与黄金价格走势呈负相关关系。 但近年来，二者经常出现同涨同跌的正相关走势。 1 2025/2/11 中国宏观经济研究员 阎奕锦 010-66555831 yijin_yan@chiefgroup.com 突破 2900 美元后，黄金价格将何去何从 2025 年开年以来，黄金价格累计涨幅超 10%，现货与 COMEX 主力合约双双突破 2900 美元/盎 司，创历史新高。本轮上涨主要由央行购金加速，特朗普政府加征关税引发避险情绪升温，以及期 货现货价差引致的套利需求驱动。 短期看，交易层面因素继续主导价格走势，提升黄金价格波动性。中长期看，央行购金和特朗 普 2.0 带来的不确定将支撑今年黄金价格维持在 2600-3200 美元/盎司区间震荡；全球各国提升黄 金储备占比会或推动金价长期走强。 1、 黄金价格的核心驱动因素 黄金兼具货币、商品、避险及抗通胀等多重属性。不同时期，这些属性在影响黄金价格走势中 的重要性不同，而不同属性在不同时期驱动价格移动方向不同，这就提升了黄金价格走势预测的难 度系数。近年来，货币属性和避险需求对金价的影响显著增强。 资料来源：Wind ...

2025/2/17 中国宏观经济研究员 阎奕锦 010-66555831 yijin_yan@chiefgroup.com 长短期资本流出压力均较大 一、我国国际收支"一顺一逆"格局深化，结构性矛盾凸显 2024 年第四季度及全年，我国国际收支延续"经常账户顺差、非储备金融账户逆差" 的双向分化格局。 第四季度数据：第四季度经常账户顺差达 1807 亿美元，包含净误差与遗漏的非储备性 质的金融账户逆差扩大至 2111 亿美元，储备资产增加 304 亿美元。 全年数据：2024 年全年经常账户顺差 4220 亿美元，包含净误差与遗漏的非储备性质 的金融账户逆差为 5038 亿美元，储备资产增加 623 亿美元。 矛盾凸显：无论是第四季度单季度，还是 2024 年全年，经常账户、货物和服务贸易账 户、货物贸易账户顺差创历史峰值，但资本项下资金外流压力显著，非储备性质的金融账 户的逆差额也创历史最值，凸显内外需失衡与资本信心不足的双重挑战。 1 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2000-01 2001-01 2002-01 ...

能源项推动美通胀超预期，联储年内可能仅降息 1 次 2025 年/2 月 海外宏观经济研究员 余琦 010-66555862 yuqi@chief-investment.com 事件： 美国 2025 年 1 月 CPI 同比上涨 3%（市场预期上涨 2.9%，前值上涨 2.9%）， 环比上涨 0.5%（市场预期上涨 0.3%，前值上涨 0.4%）；核心 CPI 同比上涨 3.3% （市场预期上涨 3.1%，前值上涨 3.2%），环比上涨 0.4%（市场预期上涨 0.3%， 前值上涨 0.2%）。 首先，能源价格同比增速再度转正，是本月 CPI 反弹的主要原因。 数据显示 1 月能源价格同比增长 1%，对本月 CPI 的贡献为 0.06%，相 比上月增加 0.09 个百分点。其中，汽油价格同比仅下跌 0.2%，对本月 CPI 的贡献为-0.11%，相比上月增加 0.09 个百分点；管道天然气价格同比上 涨 4.9%，与上月持平；电力价格同比上涨 1.9%，对本月 CPI 的贡献为 0.04%，相比上月减少 0.02 个百分点。1 月能源项对 CPI 的贡献转正，完 1 1、1 月美国 CPI 同比增速连续 4 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is expected to be stable yet risky in 2025, with the keyword being "conflict" due to Trump's return to presidency and Republican control of Congress[2] - Key economic indicators show nominal GDP growth at 4.96% in Q4 2024, slightly above the potential growth rate of 4.6%[3] - Inflation, measured by PCE, rebounded to 2.55% in December 2024, slightly above the target of 2%[3] Employment and Consumer Trends - The unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in December 2024, below the natural rate of 4.1%[3] - Household debt levels are normal, with debt-to-disposable income ratios below critical thresholds, indicating no significant debt pressure on consumers[8] - Job vacancy rates remain high, with a peak of 4.90% in November 2024, suggesting a tight labor market[11] Risks and Uncertainties - Trump's policies may introduce significant economic shocks, creating uncertainty in the financial markets and increasing investment risks[12] - The potential rise in the U.S. economy's growth rate due to AI advancements could lead to higher neutral interest rates, further complicating monetary policy[12] Investment Strategy Recommendations - For the stock market, focus on globalized large tech companies, as their overseas revenue often exceeds 50%, reducing regional dependency[14] - In the bond market, prioritize short-duration government bonds and high-grade debt for stable returns amidst volatility[14] - Consider strategic allocation to gold and a cautious outlook on the U.S. dollar[15]

不同融资模式下的股票市场合理规模 2025/2/12 | 中国宏观经济研究员 | 肇越 | zhaoyue@chief-investment.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 中国宏观经济研究员 | 王辰晨 | chenchen@chief-investment.com | 2 一个国家的股票市场是否存在一个合理的规模？根据国际比较研究，一个国 家股票市场的合理规模受到各国融资模式、实体经济发展水平等多种因素影响。 在法律体系、融资模式和经济发展水平不同的国家之间，不能做直接的横向比较， 而应当先进行分类，然后再同类别国家之间进行比较研究。我们通常用股票市场 流通市值/本国 GDP 的比值（证券化率）来衡量股票市场的合理规模。 首先，各国不同的法律体系和融资模式对于证券化率有较大的影响。对于各 国的融资模式研究解释，一个国家的融资模式主要受到法律体系的影响，这主要 是因为不同法律体系对于股权投资者和债券投资者的保护有所不同。通常英美法 系国家以直接融资为主，而大陆法系国家主要以间接融资为主。 图表 1：英美法系国家证券化率相对较高 资料来源：世界银行、香港致富研究院 注：2014 年之后 ...

Group 1: Market Impact - DeepSeek's launch led to a significant drop in the semiconductor market, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) falling by 9.2%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020[2] - NVIDIA's stock price dropped nearly 17%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $600 billion, one of the largest single-day market cap reductions in U.S. history[2] - The success of DeepSeek may have a more profound impact on companies relying on self-developed large models, such as OpenAI and ByteDance, rather than directly on NVIDIA[12] Group 2: Cost Efficiency - DeepSeek achieved a training cost of under $6 million using approximately 2,000 H800 GPUs, with a total of 2,788K GPU hours utilized for training[6] - The input cost for DeepSeek's reasoning model is only 1 yuan per million tokens, significantly lower than OpenAI's model, which charges $15 per million tokens for input[7] - DeepSeek's innovative training strategies, including the use of pure reinforcement learning, have led to a substantial reduction in training costs and improved model performance[9] Group 3: Future Implications - The reduction in training and inference costs may lead to increased demand for computational resources, contrary to the expected decrease, as per Jevons Paradox[14] - DeepSeek's advancements could lower the barrier for small and medium enterprises to develop private models, potentially leading to a surge in demand for inference capabilities[15] - Despite the short-term impact on NVIDIA's stock, the long-term outlook suggests a potential increase in demand for NVIDIA's chips as AI commercialization accelerates[16]

Group 1: DeepSeek Controversy - DeepSeek's rapid rise has led to accusations of "plagiarism" regarding its model's reliance on knowledge from other advanced models[2] - Microsoft security researchers indicated that DeepSeek employees accessed significant data via OpenAI's API, suggesting potential training data for models V3 and R1[2] Group 2: Distillation Technology - Distillation technology is a common optimization method in machine learning, transferring knowledge from large models (teacher) to smaller models (student) to enhance efficiency[3] - The concept of distillation was introduced by Geoffrey Hinton in 2015, emphasizing knowledge transfer rather than copying model architecture or code[3] Group 3: DeepSeek's Implementation - DeepSeek generated 800,000 training samples from its R1 series to enhance the V3 model's training efficiency[5] - The integration of reasoning chains from R1 into V3 significantly improved its reasoning performance, demonstrating the effectiveness of distillation[5] Group 4: Advantages and Challenges of Distillation - Distillation can lower data construction costs and expand the application range of AI models, particularly benefiting small enterprises[7] - However, student models often face performance limitations due to inherent constraints of the teacher models, especially in complex tasks[7]