Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the fiscal IT industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new round of fiscal policies is expected to benefit fiscal IT vendors, particularly through the acceleration of budget integration and electronic vouchers [2][4]. - Key areas of policy focus include increasing fiscal spending, tax reductions, and enhancing support for key groups, all of which require robust budget management systems [4][6]. - The fiscal IT sector is poised for growth due to the upgrade of budget management systems and the promotion of electronic vouchers, with potential market spaces estimated at over 10 billion for budget integration and 69.9 billion for electronic vouchers [2][11]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact on IT Vendors - The report discusses how recent fiscal policies, including increased debt limits and special government bonds, will necessitate enhanced budget management systems [4]. - The integration of fiscal IT systems is crucial for effective monitoring and management of national finances, including cash management and transfer payments [4][6]. Growth Opportunities in Fiscal IT - The upgrade to Budget Management Integration System 2.0 is expected to enhance capabilities and support new fiscal policies, with a projected completion by 2025 [7][11]. - The electronic voucher system is set to expand significantly, with a nationwide market potential of 69.9 billion, driven by new regulatory requirements for accounting software [11][12]. Beneficiary Companies - Key beneficiaries identified include: - **Bosi Software**: Leading in fiscal IT with extensive coverage across provinces and a strong position in electronic voucher systems [12][16]. - **Zhongke Jiangnan**: Focused on electronic payment solutions and budget management, with significant advancements in healthcare data applications [20]. - **Shuifu Co.**: Positioned to benefit from the rollout of the unified electronic tax system and compliance products [19]. - **Xindian Software**: Expected to see growth from its digital procurement solutions and public resource trading platforms [21]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report provides financial performance metrics for key companies, indicating resilience in revenue growth despite external challenges [12][22]. - Projected revenue growth rates for these companies suggest a positive outlook, with significant contributions expected from new product offerings and market expansions [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the internet media sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for high-quality assets such as Tencent, Alibaba, Cloud Music, and Pop Mart [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the internet and publishing sectors, with expectations for steady performance in Q3 2024, while the gaming sector is anticipated to stabilize as it awaits new product launches [7][8]. - Pop Mart's overseas expansion strategy is deemed feasible, with potential market size exceeding 10 billion, drawing comparisons to LEGO's market presence [14][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The media sector saw a decline in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, with the media index dropping 8.57%, underperforming compared to the ChiNext index [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-margin businesses, particularly in gaming and video content, as key growth drivers for Tencent [22]. Company Performance Forecasts - Tencent is projected to achieve a revenue of 165.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year profit increase of 19% [22]. - Bilibili is expected to see a profit growth of 120%, while companies like Kuaishou and Tencent are forecasted to grow by 25% and 19%, respectively [7][9]. Market Trends - The report notes that the advertising market is expected to grow by 3.1% year-on-year, with elevator advertising showing a significant increase of 24.3% [7]. - The gaming sector is highlighted for its potential, with new product launches expected to drive demand and revenue growth [7][22]. Pop Mart's Global Strategy - Pop Mart's overseas market potential is validated, with a focus on expanding product categories and leveraging successful IP strategies from companies like Sanrio and Bandai [14][19]. - The report anticipates significant growth opportunities in the overseas market, particularly in the context of cultural resonance and product adaptability [14][19]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the overall valuation of Hong Kong internet stocks is not inflated, with key companies like Tencent and Alibaba showing attractive price-to-earnings ratios [4]. - The focus on high-quality assets and the potential for AI integration in the sector are seen as positive indicators for future performance [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural sector as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [3][5][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rebound in livestock prices post-holiday, with a focus on the sustainability of farming profitability. It emphasizes the ongoing growth in the pet food sector and the anticipated commercialization of genetically modified corn in 2024 [3][5]. - The report suggests monitoring key companies in the pet food, planting, and breeding chains, including Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Muyuan Foods [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index fell by 7.6%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 3.3%. The top five gainers included Wancheng Group (up 16.9%) and ST Tianbang (up 4.6%), while the biggest losers were Andeli (down 16.8%) and Juxing Agriculture (down 16.8%) [5][11]. Livestock Farming - Post-holiday, pig prices have rebounded significantly, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 18.15 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 3.5%. The average weight of pigs remains stable at 125.87 kg [3][5]. - The report notes a decline in piglet prices, with the average price for 15 kg piglets at 438 yuan/head, down 51 yuan from before the National Day holiday, indicating a continued low enthusiasm for restocking [3][5]. Poultry Farming - The price of broiler chicks has risen, with the average price for white feather broiler chicks at 4.30 yuan/chick, a week-on-week increase of 11.7%. The average price for broiler chickens has also seen a slight increase [3][5]. Pet Food Industry - The domestic pet food market continues to show resilience, with sales in September reaching 2.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 20%. Key players like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are expected to maintain steady market share growth [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating expectations for price support due to improving non-electric demand despite weak supply and demand overall [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the current coal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with thermal coal prices decreasing slightly while coking coal prices are on the rise. The demand for thermal coal is expected to decline as the weather cools, but non-electric demand is showing signs of improvement, which may support coal prices [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring international oil prices, which have increased, affecting the coal price dynamics. The ratio of international oil prices to coal prices has also risen, indicating a potential shift in market conditions [14]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including stable operators with high dividends like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Yanzhou Coal and Guanghui Energy [2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of October 12, the spot price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was reported at 850 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week and down 170 CNY/ton year-on-year. The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8504 million tons, a decrease of 4.01 million tons week-on-week [2][17]. - The average daily coal outflow was 1.8411 million tons, down 19.26 million tons week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in demand [2][17]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at major production sites has remained stable, while coking coal prices have seen an increase. For instance, the price of Shanxi's main coking coal rose to 2010 CNY/ton, up 140 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][11]. - The international coal price indices have shown mixed trends, with Australian Newcastle coal prices slightly increasing while South African prices have also risen [9][11]. Inventory and Shipping Costs - The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was reported at 24.04 million tons, a slight increase of 20.9 thousand tons week-on-week. The average number of anchored vessels decreased by 27.57% [17][20]. - Domestic shipping costs have decreased, with average freight rates dropping to 31.50 CNY/ton, a decline of 4.98% week-on-week [20]. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years, indicating potential investment opportunities [24].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 国防军工 2024 年 10 月 13 日 三季报业绩承压扰动行情，基本面 确定不改上行趋势 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2024 年第 42 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.48%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 3.34%，同期上证综指下 跌 3.56%，沪深 300 下跌 3.25%，创业板指下跌 3.41%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 2.48%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 8 位。2、从我们构建的 军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名靠后，平均跌幅为 1.78%。3、从 个股表现来看，申万国防军工板块及民参军上市公司名单中，剔除停牌个股后，上周国 防军工板块涨幅排名前五的个股分别为中船应急（13.45%）、中光学（13.01%）、天和 防务（11.13%）、中航电测（9.59%）、新余国科（8.62%）。上周国防军工板块涨幅排 名后五的个股分别为航天晨光（-14.5%）、图南股份（-12.53 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the commerce retail industry, particularly in light of the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival [4][5]. Core Insights - The Double Eleven shopping festival has been advanced, with major e-commerce platforms starting promotions earlier than in 2023, averaging 8.5 days earlier [4][11]. - E-commerce platforms are focusing on enhancing consumer experience and service quality, shifting from aggressive price competition to improving overall service and product quality [5][11]. - Various platforms are implementing strategies to reduce operational costs for merchants, such as Taobao's return of the pre-sale mechanism and Douyin's upgraded traffic distribution system [4][5][12]. Summary by Sections Double Eleven Promotion - The Double Eleven promotion period has been extended, with platforms prioritizing merchants and creating a better business environment to attract them back [11]. - Platforms are diversifying their pricing strategies, with Taobao and Douyin moving away from absolute low-price strategies while still catering to price-sensitive consumers [5][11]. Company Updates - Taobao has reintroduced its pre-sale mechanism to help merchants manage inventory and cash flow, while also reducing operational costs through various incentives [12][31]. - Douyin emphasizes content quality and has upgraded its traffic distribution mechanism to improve conversion rates [13][14]. - JD.com has eliminated the registration process for merchants, simplifying participation in promotions and enhancing user experience [14][15]. Market Performance - From October 8 to October 11, 2024, the commerce retail index fell by 6.14%, ranking 19th among Shenwan's primary industries [4][18]. - The top three performing stocks in the commerce retail sector were Xiaopin Mall (+15.03%), Guofang Group (+14.32%), and Dazhong (+4.62%) [21][25]. Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards enhancing consumer experience and quality, with platforms like Taobao and Douyin focusing on service improvements rather than solely on price competition [5][11]. - The report recommends investing in Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo as they adapt their strategies for the upcoming Double Eleven festival [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, particularly focusing on sectors such as real estate, consumer chains, and undervalued blue-chip companies [3]. Core Insights - The introduction of anti-dumping measures on titanium dioxide is expected to catalyze a recovery in terminal demand, with a focus on real estate and consumer sectors [3]. - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a recovery in the domestic economy, with oil prices expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel in Q4 due to tight global supply [4][5]. - The impact of anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide exports from Brazil and Saudi Arabia is anticipated to be limited, as these markets represent a small portion of China's overall exports [4][8]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The report highlights that the domestic economy is in a recovery phase, with the Federal Reserve likely to end interest rate hikes, leading to a potential decrease in rates [4]. - Global oil supply remains tight due to production cuts from Russia and OPEC+, with coal prices expected to decline in the medium to long term [5]. Titanium Dioxide Market - Brazil has imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties ranging from $577.73 to $1772.69 per ton on Chinese titanium dioxide, while Saudi Arabia has initiated an investigation [4][8]. - In 2023, China's titanium dioxide exports were approximately 1.64 million tons, with Brazil and Saudi Arabia accounting for 6.7% and 1.2% of total exports, respectively [8][9]. Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, among others [4]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the MDI market, which is expected to perform well due to strong demand and supply-side support [4][9]. Price Trends - Recent price movements indicate a rise in PTA and polyester prices, driven by strong cost support from rising oil prices [9][10]. - The report notes that the price of urea has increased by 3.3% week-on-week, reflecting a positive market sentiment ahead of the holiday season [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The completion of the touch control asset divestiture is expected to positively contribute to the net profit for 2024. The approved capital increase for storage upgrade projects will accelerate product upgrades [1] - The divestiture of the low-relevance touch control business is projected to increase the company's net profit by approximately 1.32 million in 2024 [4] - The company has developed nine self-researched main control chips, expanding from mobile storage to more complex SATA SSDs, with significant R&D investments planned for 2024 [4][5] - The company has established a comprehensive product line including mobile storage, solid-state drives, embedded storage, and memory bars, with significant revenue contributions from each segment [5] - The company is building a digital operation management system for its smart manufacturing base, enhancing production flexibility and efficiency [5] - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with projected net profits of 828 million, 498 million, and 873 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,776 million, with projections of 4,103 million for 2024 and 7,085 million for 2026, indicating substantial growth [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 is 25 million, with a significant increase expected to 828 million in 2024 [6][8] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 16.7% in 2023 to 32.0% in 2024, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly emphasizing the potential for recovery in consumer spending if favorable policies are implemented [1][9]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 7.47% this week, with the liquor segment down 8.21%, underperforming the broader market [9]. - The report highlights that the key to future performance lies in the effective implementation of policies that can improve income levels and consumer expectations [1][9]. - Despite short-term demand pressures, the long-term view remains optimistic, focusing on the strategic determination and execution capabilities of leading companies [1][9]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector is expected to see a fundamental improvement in consumer spending if positive policy measures are enacted [1][9]. - The report suggests that leading companies with stable earnings and high dividends could see their valuations recover to 15-20x, with competitive firms potentially exceeding 20x [1][9]. Liquor Segment Analysis - The report notes that the price of Moutai has decreased, with the current price for a bottle at approximately 2280 RMB, down 20 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The overall demand for liquor during the recent holiday period was below expectations, with a double-digit decline noted across the sector [10]. - The report anticipates that inventory levels in the liquor industry will increase post-holiday, and it expresses caution regarding the upcoming quarterly reports [10]. Food Products Analysis - The report indicates that while there was a slight improvement in revenue for mass-market food products in Q3, it fell short of expectations [10]. - The beer sector is expected to face challenges across volume, price, and profit margins, while dairy products may see a slight improvement after inventory adjustments [10]. - The snack food segment is projected to maintain double-digit revenue growth, indicating a favorable growth trajectory compared to other categories [10]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several leading companies in the liquor sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as mass-market brands like Yili and Qingdao Beer [1][9]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming quarterly reports and the data from the year-end holiday season for further insights into market performance [1][9].

行 业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2024 年 10 月 12 日 发布三季报业绩前瞻，关注 Q4 内需弹性 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20241012 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《安踏体育（02020）点评：品牌表现分 化，运营质量稳健 》 2024/10/11 《政策发力、预期触底，品牌修复行情启 动——纺织服装行业 2024 年三季报业绩 前瞻》 2024/10/10 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 李璇 A0230524070003 lixuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 (8621)23297818× wanglp@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周纺织服饰板块表现弱于市场。10 月 8 日-11 日，SW 纺织服饰指数下跌 6.4%，跑 输 SW 全 A 指数 2.4pct。其中，SW 服装 ...