Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly emphasizing the potential for recovery in consumer spending if favorable policies are implemented [1][9]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 7.47% this week, with the liquor segment down 8.21%, underperforming the broader market [9]. - The report highlights that the key to future performance lies in the effective implementation of policies that can improve income levels and consumer expectations [1][9]. - Despite short-term demand pressures, the long-term view remains optimistic, focusing on the strategic determination and execution capabilities of leading companies [1][9]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector is expected to see a fundamental improvement in consumer spending if positive policy measures are enacted [1][9]. - The report suggests that leading companies with stable earnings and high dividends could see their valuations recover to 15-20x, with competitive firms potentially exceeding 20x [1][9]. Liquor Segment Analysis - The report notes that the price of Moutai has decreased, with the current price for a bottle at approximately 2280 RMB, down 20 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The overall demand for liquor during the recent holiday period was below expectations, with a double-digit decline noted across the sector [10]. - The report anticipates that inventory levels in the liquor industry will increase post-holiday, and it expresses caution regarding the upcoming quarterly reports [10]. Food Products Analysis - The report indicates that while there was a slight improvement in revenue for mass-market food products in Q3, it fell short of expectations [10]. - The beer sector is expected to face challenges across volume, price, and profit margins, while dairy products may see a slight improvement after inventory adjustments [10]. - The snack food segment is projected to maintain double-digit revenue growth, indicating a favorable growth trajectory compared to other categories [10]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several leading companies in the liquor sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as mass-market brands like Yili and Qingdao Beer [1][9]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming quarterly reports and the data from the year-end holiday season for further insights into market performance [1][9].

行 业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2024 年 10 月 12 日 发布三季报业绩前瞻，关注 Q4 内需弹性 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20241012 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《安踏体育（02020）点评：品牌表现分 化，运营质量稳健 》 2024/10/11 《政策发力、预期触底，品牌修复行情启 动——纺织服装行业 2024 年三季报业绩 前瞻》 2024/10/10 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 李璇 A0230524070003 lixuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 (8621)23297818× wanglp@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周纺织服饰板块表现弱于市场。10 月 8 日-11 日，SW 纺织服饰指数下跌 6.4%，跑 输 SW 全 A 指数 2.4pct。其中，SW 服装 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights Tesla's recent "We, Robot" event, showcasing the Cybercab Robotaxi and Robovan, with a focus on the future commercial model and timeline for Robotaxi deployment [9][10]. - The Cybercab is expected to be produced at a cost below $30,000, with a projected operational cost of approximately $0.2 per mile, significantly lower than the current average of $1 per mile for ride-hailing services in North America [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Model 2, a more affordable vehicle aimed at increasing market share and driving growth [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Tesla's "We, Robot" Event Overview - The event featured the introduction of the Cybercab and Robovan, along with plans for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities [9][10]. - The Cybercab is a small two-door vehicle designed without a steering wheel or pedals, set for mass production between 2026 and 2027 [10][11]. 1.1 Cybercab and Robovan Launch - The Cybercab will utilize AI5 hardware and support wireless charging, with a production cost under $30,000 [10]. - The Robovan, designed for both passenger and cargo transport, will have an operational cost of 5-10 cents per mile [11]. 1.2 Future Considerations - The report calls for more details on the Robotaxi business model and the anticipated launch of the Model 2, which is crucial for Tesla's growth strategy [13][14]. - The FSD platform is set to undergo significant upgrades, with the AI5 hardware expected to enhance performance dramatically [14]. 1.3 Investment Opinion Analysis - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies involved in autonomous driving and Tesla's supply chain, including Desay SV, Hongsoft Technology, and Luxshare Precision [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in Tesla's Robotaxi, specifically the "CyberCab," which is expected to be produced by 2026 at a cost below $30,000 per unit, potentially increasing utilization rates by 5-10 times [4][7][10]. - The computer industry is anticipated to see accelerated recovery in Q3 2024, with a projected increase in net profit due to a favorable income-cost mismatch [19][21]. Summary by Sections Tesla Robotaxi Developments - Tesla's CyberCab was showcased with no steering wheel or pedals, aiming for full autonomous driving capabilities by 2026 [4][7]. - The operational cost of the CyberCab is projected to be around $0.2 per mile, with a significant focus on enhancing user experience through wireless charging [9][10]. Q3 2024 Computer Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a recovery in the computer industry's performance, with net profit growth expected to accelerate due to lower salary cost increases and a favorable revenue base from the previous year [19][21]. - Key companies such as Haiguang Information and Suocheng Technology are highlighted for their strong performance, with Haiguang Information expecting a revenue increase of 48%-61.3% year-on-year [21][22]. Key Company Updates - Haiguang Information's revenue and profit forecasts for Q3 2024 significantly exceed market expectations, driven by increased demand for CPU products in various sectors [21]. - Suocheng Technology's acquisition of European electromagnetic simulation software source code is expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [22].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the electronic sector [3][19]. Core Insights - Tesla has launched two new models, Cybercab and Robovan, with plans for mass production by 2026-2027. The Cybercab is expected to have a cost below $30,000 and operational costs as low as $0.2 per mile [9]. - ByteDance has released its first AI earphone, OlaFriend, which integrates multiple AI functionalities and is designed for seamless interaction with the user's mobile app [11]. - The report highlights significant growth in the AI and semiconductor sectors, with companies like North Huachuang and Zhongke Feicai being recommended for investment [3][9]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - From October 8 to October 11, the A-share electronic index showed minimal fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.56% and the Shenzhen Composite Index down 4.80%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 2.48% [7][8]. - Notable stock performances included Kema Technology up 55.69% and Guomin Technology up 42.59% [7][8]. Tesla's New Models - Tesla's Cybercab features no steering wheel or pedals, with a projected production cost under $30,000 and operational costs significantly lower than current ride-sharing averages [9]. - The Robovan is designed to carry up to 20 passengers or transport goods, with operational costs estimated at 5-10 cents per mile [9]. ByteDance's AI Earphone - The OlaFriend earphone weighs only 6.6 grams and allows users to interact with the app without needing to use their phones [11]. - The report notes that the global personal smart audio market reached 110 million units in Q2 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [12]. Important Developments - Huawei has launched a developer incentive program for HarmonyOS applications, while Apple is shifting away from its annual product update cycle [13]. - AMD announced its next-generation GPU acceleration card, which will utilize a 3nm architecture [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investments in semiconductor equipment companies such as North Huachuang and Zhongke Feicai, as well as in the AI chip and server supply chain [3][9]. - Key companies in the semiconductor midstream include SMIC and Huahong Technology, while IC design firms like Demingli and Jiangbolong are also highlighted [3].

产 业 行 业 及 交通运输 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230123050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230122100009 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230123030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230123070006 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘衣云 (8621)23297818× liuyy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 万得 使用。1 2024 年 10 月 12 日 推荐反内卷快递机会&高股息高速 铁路港口，关注油轮原油增产期权 看好 — ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly favoring copper and aluminum for their quality growth potential [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights expectations for counter-cyclical fiscal policy adjustments, which are anticipated to strengthen demand for copper and aluminum. It emphasizes the limited new supply of copper and the ongoing growth in demand from the new energy sector, suggesting a long-term bullish trend for copper prices [5][4]. - The report also notes that the recent decline in metal prices is temporary, with expectations of recovery driven by seasonal demand and supply adjustments [5][4]. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a weekly market review indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, while the non-ferrous metals index dropped by 6.24%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.98 percentage points. Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 6.67%, still lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 6.62 percentage points [4][10]. - Specific declines in metal prices include a 6.04% drop in copper and a 5.01% drop in aluminum compared to the previous week [11][4]. Price Changes - The report details price changes for various metals, noting a decrease in LME copper prices by 1.53% and aluminum prices by 0.77% week-on-week. Additionally, it highlights the price movements of lithium and cobalt, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.60% [4][14]. - The report also mentions that the domestic price of copper fell by 1.95%, while aluminum saw a slight increase of 1.57% [14][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report discusses supply constraints for copper, with expectations of limited new supply from global copper mines in 2024-2025. It also highlights the ongoing demand growth from the new energy sector, which is expected to support copper prices in the long run [5][4]. - For aluminum, the report anticipates that domestic production will peak in 2024, with slow overseas capacity additions, further supporting price stability [5][4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their supply-demand dynamics, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum, among others, for their potential to benefit from the expected market conditions [5][4]. - It also suggests investing in companies within the stable supply-demand framework of the new energy manufacturing sector, such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the commercial retail industry as "Positive" for investment [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights stable domestic demand and emphasizes the resilience of e-commerce growth [2]. - It notes that retail sales in July and August 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of 2.7% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a moderate growth trend [2]. - E-commerce penetration continues to rise, with online retail sales of physical goods achieving a growth rate of 8.1% and 4.1% in July and August 2024, respectively, outperforming overall retail sales growth [2]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - Alibaba's GMV growth rate in Q3 2024 is expected to consolidate further, with logistics and payment ecosystems gradually integrating [2]. - JD.com is projected to maintain a high-quality growth trend, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.9% to 257.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [2]. - Meituan's core local business is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 91.7 billion yuan [2]. Jewelry Sector - Lao Feng Xiang is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0%-5% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with profits projected to decline by 5% to 5% [2]. - Zhou Daxing is focusing on quality and efficiency, with revenue expected to decline by 5% to 5% in Q2 2024 [2]. - Cai Bai Co. anticipates a revenue increase of 5%-15% in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand for investment gold bars [2]. Supermarket and Department Store Sector - Yonghui Supermarket is expected to see a revenue decline of 5%-10% in Q3 2024 due to store closures, despite improvements from supply chain reforms [2]. - Chongqing Department Store is transitioning to a "fresh + discount" model, with a projected revenue decline of 3%-8% in Q3 2024 [2]. - Jia Jia Yue is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0%-5% in Q3 2024, benefiting from successful snack store franchises [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo due to improving fundamentals and liquidity [2]. - In the jewelry sector, it suggests investing in resilient brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Cai Bai Co., and Zhou Daxing [2]. - For supermarkets and department stores, it recommends Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, and Jia Jia Yue as they adapt to new business models and supply chain adjustments [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market through a series of fiscal policies aimed at boosting demand and addressing debt risks [3][6]. - It highlights the introduction of significant debt limits to replace local government hidden debts, marking the most substantial support measure for debt resolution in recent years [3][6]. - The report notes that the government is exploring various policy tools to enhance fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments, including increasing the central government's borrowing capacity and deficit limits [3][6]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The government plans to implement a comprehensive set of incremental policies to support economic growth and stabilize the real estate market [3][6]. - Measures include increasing residents' income and implementing new policies to stimulate consumption and effective demand [3][6]. - The report indicates a strong governmental push for the real estate market to stabilize, aligning with previous meetings' themes [3][6]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the acceleration of land and property acquisition processes through special bonds and reduced financing costs [3][6]. - It mentions the government's support for local governments to utilize special bonds for acquiring idle land and existing properties, which is expected to speed up the recovery process [3][6]. - The report also addresses the optimization of tax policies, including the potential cancellation of value-added tax and land value-added tax standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties [3][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their product strength and valuation recovery potential, including: - Strong product companies: Binhai Group, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others [3][6]. - Valuation recovery companies: Jindi Group, New Town Holdings, and others [3][6]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: I Love My Home, Beike [3][6]. - Property management firms: China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jinling, and others [3][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the internet media sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report forecasts a profit growth rate exceeding 50% for Q3 2024, with notable companies like Bilibili (120%) and Shenzhou Taiyue (82%) leading the growth [3][4]. - The internet sector continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency, with significant developments in short video monetization and overseas expansion in the toy sector [3][4]. - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from new product cycles, with several major titles launched recently, supporting future performance [3][4]. - The advertising market is projected to grow, particularly in short video and elevator advertising, despite overall consumer spending weakness [4]. - The education publishing sector is expected to maintain steady operations, although profit margins may decline due to changes in tax policies [4]. Summary by Category Internet and Toys - Key companies include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, Cloud Music, Pop Mart, and Xindong Company, with a focus on Bilibili, Maoyan Entertainment, Kuaishou, NetEase, Tencent Music, iQIYI, Alibaba Pictures, and Yuedu Group [4][8]. Gaming - Notable companies are Shenzhou Taiyue, Jibite, Electric Soul Network, and Kayi Network, with attention on Sanqi Interactive Entertainment, Giant Network, and Yaoji Technology [4][8]. Advertising - Focus on Focus Media and Mango Super Media as key players in the advertising sector [4][8]. High Dividend State-owned Enterprises - Key companies include Changjiang Media, Zhongwen Media, Southern Media, Shandong Publishing, Central South Media, Phoenix Media, and New Media Shares [4][8]. Export Chain - Key companies are Focus Technology and Easy Point World [4][8]. Film and Television - Notable companies include Shanghai Film, China Ruyi, Bona Film Group, and Light Media [4][8].