行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the automotive industry, indicating expectations for the sector to outperform the overall market performance [3][5]. Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate in Europe is below expectations, with calls to delay emission reduction targets, suggesting a potential slowdown in the electricization process [3][5]. - The launch of the Le Dao L60 model, which targets the mainstream new energy market priced between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, is anticipated to capture significant market share [3][6]. - The report highlights the profitability potential of the Le Dao L60 through targeted configurations and cost management, which may enhance overall vehicle profitability for the company [4][6]. Summary by Sections European Electric Vehicle Market - European new car sales fell by 18.3% in August, reaching a three-year low, with major markets like Germany, France, and Italy experiencing declines of 27.8%, 24.3%, and 13.4% respectively [3][5]. - Pure electric vehicle sales in Europe dropped by 43.9% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of decline, while plug-in hybrid vehicle registrations decreased by 22.3% [3][5]. - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) has called for an urgent review of the 2025 emission regulations and the 2035 ban on new internal combustion engine vehicles to prevent significant penalties for manufacturers [3][5]. Le Dao L60 Model - The Le Dao L60 is set to launch on September 29, 2024, with a starting price of 206,900 yuan, directly competing with Tesla's Model Y [3][6]. - The model's battery-as-a-service (BaaS) pricing can drop to 149,900 yuan, making it competitive with joint venture vehicles like Toyota RAV4 and Volkswagen Tiguan [3][6]. - The report notes that the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan segment for new energy vehicles has expanded significantly, with sales figures increasing from 670,000 in 2021 to 1,540,000 in 2023 [3][6]. Profitability and Growth Potential - The Le Dao L60 is expected to create a profit margin due to cost-saving measures, such as omitting certain features and using a single Orin chip [4][6]. - The comprehensive cost of the Le Dao L60 is projected to be 10% lower than that of the Model Y, which may lead to increased sales for the company [4][6]. - The report anticipates that as sales increase, the overall gross margin for the company will improve, contributing to a reduction in losses [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the inverter industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][7]. Core Insights - In August, inverter exports reached 5.2876 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31.74% and a month-on-month increase of 0.87%, with export value at 6.157 billion yuan, up 24.22% year-on-year and 9.98% month-on-month. The first eight months of 2024 saw a total export of 35.7027 million units, down 3.30% year-on-year, with an export value of 40.193 billion yuan, down 23.75% year-on-year [2]. - The recovery in demand is attributed to the end of the European holiday season and the ongoing growth in markets such as the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Notably, Zhejiang province showed strong export performance in August [2][3]. - Emerging markets are expected to further boost demand, with countries like India and Pakistan implementing supportive policies for solar installations. In August, inverter exports to India amounted to 326 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.12%, while exports to Pakistan reached 326 million yuan, up 429.04% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Export Data - August inverter exports totaled 5.2876 million units, with a value of 6.157 billion yuan, marking significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth [2]. - Regional performance showed Zhejiang province leading with a year-on-year increase of 53.02% in export quantity [2]. Market Demand - The end of the European holiday season has led to a surge in inverter demand, with exports to Europe in August reaching 1.1572 million units and a value of 2.736 billion yuan [2][3]. - Emerging markets are becoming key growth areas, with India and Pakistan showing substantial increases in inverter imports [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the inverter industry, including Sungrow Power Supply, Sungrow Electric, Deye Technology, Jinlang Technology, Goodwe, and Aro Energy, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the expected market growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking sector, emphasizing the supportive measures from the central bank aimed at fostering economic recovery [3]. Core Insights - The recent measures announced by the central bank, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2 percentage point decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, are expected to stabilize banks' net interest margins and support their profitability [3][6]. - The report highlights that the adjustment of existing mortgage rates to align with new loan rates is projected to have a neutral impact on banks' interest margins, with an estimated reduction of about 6.2 basis points [4][6]. - The central bank's approach aims to ensure that banks can support the real economy without excessively compressing their profit margins, indicating a balanced strategy for economic recovery [3][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's recent actions are expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, with further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio possible later this year [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the adjustments in interest rates will lead to a decrease in banks' funding costs, which will help mitigate the impact of asset pricing declines [4][6]. Interest Margin Projections - The report estimates that the overall impact of the mortgage rate adjustments and interest rate cuts will lead to a decline in the average interest margin of listed banks by 16 basis points in 2024, stabilizing around 1.5% by 2026 [4][6]. - Specific impacts on different types of banks are noted, with state-owned banks expected to experience a more significant effect compared to joint-stock banks [4][6]. Capital Supplementation Strategy - The report discusses the planned capital supplementation for the six major banks, emphasizing the need for external capital to maintain stable profits and support sustainable lending to the real economy [6][7]. - It is noted that the average non-performing loan ratio for these banks is at a decade-low of 1.28%, indicating a stable asset quality environment for potential capital raising [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining positions in high-dividend banks and identifies smaller banks that have been less affected by mortgage repricing as potential recovery plays [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry, specifically focusing on the new cycle of the liquor market [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry has transitioned from expansive growth to a more competitive environment characterized by volume reduction and price increases. This shift is influenced by macroeconomic changes, policy adjustments, and food safety incidents [3][7]. - Short-term pressures on volume and price are expected, with a long-term trend towards concentrated competition as the market continues to evolve [3][5]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic indicators, population changes, and wealth effects in determining future trends in liquor demand and pricing [6][36]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The liquor industry has experienced three major cycles since 1989, moving from a period of volume and price increases to one of volume decline and price increases, influenced by various economic and policy factors [12][20]. - Key periods include the rapid growth phase from 2003 to 2012, followed by adjustments due to government policies and economic downturns [12][20]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that since 2016, the industry has entered a phase of squeezed competition, with a decline in overall sales volume and an increase in market concentration among leading brands [3][22]. - The market share of top brands has increased significantly, with the top six companies accounting for 46% of total revenue in 2023, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [3][40]. Regional Analysis - The report analyzes various regional markets, noting that areas like Jiangsu and Anhui have seen significant increases in market share for local brands, while other regions like Shandong and Sichuan still have potential for market share growth [4][5]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with leading brands increasingly capturing market share from smaller competitors [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and others, citing their potential for long-term value and competitive advantages [5][6]. - The analysis suggests that these companies are well-positioned to benefit from structural changes in the market and potential dividend payouts [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has announced a cash dividend of 0.175 CNY per share for H1 2024, totaling approximately 500 million CNY, which represents about 53.16% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [7] - The company plans to repurchase shares with a total amount between 300 million to 500 million CNY, with a maximum repurchase price of 12 CNY per share, aimed at reducing registered capital [7] - The company has a strong history of returning value to shareholders, with cumulative dividends of 9.809 billion CNY from 2012 to 2023 and an average dividend payout ratio of 57.32% [7] - Despite short-term price pressures on products like monosodium glutamate, there is an expected price increase for products such as threonine, which could enhance performance [7] - The company is actively working on new projects, including expansions and upgrades, which are expected to contribute positively in the second half of the year [7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 27.707 billion CNY, with a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.031 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.06 CNY for 2024, with a gradual increase to 1.34 CNY by 2026 [8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 17.6% in 2024, decreasing slightly in the following years [8] Market Data - As of September 23, 2024, the company's closing price is 8.95 CNY, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.8 and a dividend yield of 4.69% [2] - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 25.532 billion CNY [2]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产 2024 年 09 月 24 日 存量房贷降息，二套首付下调，收储政策加码 看好 ——国新办新闻发布会政策点评 事件 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com ⚫ 9 月 24 日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办发布会上宣布：1）降低存款准备金率与 政策利率，将下调存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，向金融市场提供长期的流动性约 1 万亿 元。2）降低存量房贷利率和统一房贷最低首付比例，引导商业银行将存量房贷利率降 至新发放房贷利率附近，预计平均降幅在 0.5 个百分点左右；统一首套房和二套房的房 贷最低首付比例，将全国层面的二套房贷款最低首付比例由 25%下调至 15%。3）保 障性住房再贷款央行资金支持比例由 60%提高至 100%。人民银行将支持收购房企存 量土地。 点评 ⚫ 存量房贷利率下 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融 2024 年 09 月 22 日 券商风控优化政策落地，保险关注 延迟退休政策对产品销售利好作用 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2024/9/18-2024/9/20） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 保险：本周申万保险 II 指数收涨 2.52%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.20pct。延迟退休政策 对保险产品销售构成长期利好。9 月 19 日，国务院召开实施渐进式延迟法定退休年龄工 作动员部署视频会议，国务院总理李强指出"切实强化养老保障和服务，落实好提高城 乡居民和退休人员基本养老金政策，加大养老保险全国统筹调剂力度"、要"坚持按 '自愿、弹性'原则执行好延迟退休政策，确保真实体现职工意愿"。人口老龄化加剧 态势下，延迟退休政策有望提升养老金的可持续性，有助于进一步释放居民保障需求： 一方面，基本养老保险领取年龄随退休年龄延后，年金类保险产品可有效覆盖基本养老 保险领取前居民的流动性需求；另一方面，在预期寿命提升态势下，终身保险产品是唯 一可有效对冲长寿风险的金融产品。 ⚫ 券商：申万券商指数涨幅为+1.42%，跑赢 HS300 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024, reaching 10.095 billion, and a 10.5% increase in net profit, amounting to 1.875 billion [2]. - A mid-term dividend of 0.16 HKD per share was announced, with a payout ratio of 72% [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 downwards due to declining birth rates and intense industry competition, projecting net profits of 3.69 billion, 3.86 billion, and 4.02 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][4]. - The company maintains a leading market share in the infant formula sector, with a total market share of 19.2% and offline market share of 22.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 67.9%, up 2.56 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points [3]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.476 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 3.691 billion, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Market Position - The ultra-premium infant formula segment saw a revenue increase of 19.6% to 7.14 billion, driven by the growth of the Star Flying series [3]. - The company has effectively managed its channel inventory, positioning itself to capture market share as smaller brands exit the market [3]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a decrease in sales expense ratio to 35%, down 0.52 percentage points, due to optimized marketing strategies [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10x, 10x, and 9x respectively, compared to an average PE of 12x for comparable companies [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on breakthrough in realistic themes, with successful releases like "The 20th Article" achieving a cumulative box office of 2.45 billion [5] - The company has established a leading position in China's animation film sector, having started its strategic focus on animation films in 2015, and is actively exploring AI integration in production [5] - The company has a rich IP reserve, with multiple animation projects in development, and is implementing a "321 plan" to cultivate internal talent [5] - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 684 million, 1.003 billion, and 1.194 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [5] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.33 billion and a net profit of 473 million, with a projected revenue growth of 11.7% in 2024 [7] - The company’s earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.23 in 2024 to 0.41 in 2026, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [9] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 28, 19, and 16, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [5][7]