Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024, reaching 10.095 billion, and a 10.5% increase in net profit, amounting to 1.875 billion [2]. - A mid-term dividend of 0.16 HKD per share was announced, with a payout ratio of 72% [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 downwards due to declining birth rates and intense industry competition, projecting net profits of 3.69 billion, 3.86 billion, and 4.02 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][4]. - The company maintains a leading market share in the infant formula sector, with a total market share of 19.2% and offline market share of 22.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 67.9%, up 2.56 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points [3]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.476 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 3.691 billion, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Market Position - The ultra-premium infant formula segment saw a revenue increase of 19.6% to 7.14 billion, driven by the growth of the Star Flying series [3]. - The company has effectively managed its channel inventory, positioning itself to capture market share as smaller brands exit the market [3]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a decrease in sales expense ratio to 35%, down 0.52 percentage points, due to optimized marketing strategies [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10x, 10x, and 9x respectively, compared to an average PE of 12x for comparable companies [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is focusing on breakthrough in realistic themes, with successful releases like "The 20th Article" achieving a cumulative box office of 2.45 billion [5] - The company has established a leading position in China's animation film sector, having started its strategic focus on animation films in 2015, and is actively exploring AI integration in production [5] - The company has a rich IP reserve, with multiple animation projects in development, and is implementing a "321 plan" to cultivate internal talent [5] - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 684 million, 1.003 billion, and 1.194 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [5] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.33 billion and a net profit of 473 million, with a projected revenue growth of 11.7% in 2024 [7] - The company’s earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.23 in 2024 to 0.41 in 2026, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [9] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 28, 19, and 16, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Zhongwang Software (688083) [3][8]. Core Views - The report identifies three key expectation gaps that could drive growth for Zhongwang Software, emphasizing its leadership in the domestic CAD market and potential for revaluation [3][6][8]. - The company's growth is driven by expanding product categories, increasing the rate of software legalization, market share growth, and overseas revenue [6][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Data - Closing price: 67.50 CNY - Market capitalization: 8,188 million CNY - Price-to-book ratio: 3.1 - Dividend yield: 0.67% [3][4]. 2. Financial Performance - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 9.93 billion CNY, 12.06 billion CNY, and 14.80 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 21%, and 23% respectively [6][8]. - Expected net profit for the same period: 0.98 billion CNY, 1.45 billion CNY, and 2.12 billion CNY, with growth rates of 60%, 48%, and 46% respectively [6][8]. 3. Growth Drivers - Strategic focus on 3D product breakthroughs and a comprehensive CAx integration strategy [22][24]. - The company has established a solid foundation in technology and has introduced three core technologies to enhance its product capabilities [6][22]. - The "Wukong Plan" aims to penetrate high-end 3D fields, while acquisitions like CHAM and Beijing Bochao expand its capabilities [6][22]. 4. Market Positioning - Zhongwang Software's 3D CAD products are priced significantly lower than international competitors, with a five-year licensing cost approximately 25% of similar foreign products [6][20]. - The company is enhancing its distribution strategy by focusing on direct sales to small and medium-sized clients, which is expected to leverage channel efficiencies [6][20]. 5. Legalization Trends - The report highlights the long-term trend towards software legalization in China, driven by the country's status as a global manufacturing hub [6][20]. - If China achieves a legalization rate similar to that of the U.S., the domestic market's potential for growth could double [6][20]. 6. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 109 billion CNY for 2024, indicating a potential upside of 33% based on a price-to-sales ratio of 11x [6][8]. - Comparable companies in the sector include Guangliwei, Gai Lun Electronics, and Suo Chen Technology, which provide a benchmark for valuation [6][8].

行 业 及 产 业 计算机 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 23 日 华为全联接大会 2024：共赢行业 智能化 看好 ——华为系列深度之十六 相关研究 《AI 算力软件生态：难以突破吗？—华为 系列深度之十五》 2024/09/19 《华为全联接大会即将举办——关注鸿蒙 +星闪+昇腾/盘古联动》 2024/08/25 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹峥 (8621)23297818× caozheng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 2024 年 9 月 19-21 日，华为全联接大会 2024 在上海召开。本次会议主题为"共赢 行业智能化"。本次大会与过往全联接大会最大的差异来自于：1）华为全业务板块均 有参会，过往主要为华为云；2）会议主题强调"共赢 ...

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 2024 年 09 月 23 日 8 月高温居民用电高增长 水火贡献 主要发电增量 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(24/09/18~24/09/20) 本期投资提示： ⚫ 电力：8 月城乡居民用电高增，贡献主要用电增量。国家能源局披露 8 月全社会用电量 数据，8 月单月全社会用电量 9649 亿千瓦时，同比增长 8.9%。其中第一、二、三产业 和城乡居民生活用电量分别同比增长 4.6%、4.0%、11.2%、23.7%。第三产业高增趋 势延续，城乡居民生活用电增长明显，第二产业用电量增速环比下滑，第二产业和第一 产业用电量增速在 4%以上。累计数据来看，1-8 月，全社会用电量累计 65619 亿千瓦 时，同比增长 7.9%，两年 CAGR（2022-2024）达 6.5%。1-8 月，第一、二、三产业 和城乡居民生活用电量分别同比增长 7.0%、6.3%、11.0%和 10.9%。8 月，第一、 二、三产业和城乡居民用电增量分别贡献全社会用电总增量的 1%、28%、24%、 47%。8 月全国多地持续高温，城乡居民空调用电需求高增，贡献主要 ...

行 业 及 产 业 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 电力设备 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 2024 年 09 月 23 日 户用分布式承压，8 月国内光伏新 增装机 16.46GW 看好 ——光伏行业点评 相关研究 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 (8621)23297818× lichong@swsresearch.com ⚫ 事件：9 月 23 日，国家能源局发布了 1-8 月份全国电力工业统计数据。根 据能源局官网，今年 1-8 月，全国新增发电装机容量 209.95GW，同比增长 约 13.63%，其中太阳能发电新增装机 139.99GW，同比增长 23.71%。太阳 能发电在新增发电装机中的占比保持在 2/3 左右。单月数据来看，24 年 8 月新增光伏装机 16.46GW，同比增加 2.9%，环比下降 21.8%。 ⚫ 户用分布式装机并网收紧导致 8 月装机数据环比下降较多。经过前两年的 高歌猛进，户用分布式装机爆发式增长，导 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company has launched a stock option incentive plan for 29 core personnel, granting a total of 4.78 million stock options, which represents 0.94% of the current share capital. The exercise price is set at 19.97 yuan per share [4]. - The earnings forecast for the company remains stable, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 929 million, 1.127 billion, and 1.281 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 14% [4]. - The company is expected to leverage its brand and channel advantages to increase market share in the sunflower seed business and maintain double-digit growth in the nut business [4]. - The incentive plan is designed to align employee interests with company growth, with specific revenue and profit targets set for 2024-2026 [4]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.486 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 929 million yuan, representing a 15.7% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.83 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15x based on the latest closing price [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 29% in 2024, up from 26.8% in 2023 [5]. Organizational Changes - The company is undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance efficiency and is actively recruiting talent to support its growth strategy [5]. - The sales organization is adopting a more streamlined management approach, focusing on provincial units for better resource allocation and business planning [5].

Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends **Buy** ratings for **COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation** and **China Merchants Energy Shipping** due to the potential increase in transportation demand from crude oil supply release in 2025 and the certainty of supply logic [39] Core Views - **Freight Rates**: VLCC freight rates in 2023 were high in the first half and low in the second half, with a return to normal seasonal patterns in 2024, showing strength in Q1 and Q4 and weakness in Q2 and Q3 [2] - **Supply**: Global VLCC fleet remains at 908 vessels, with a significant increase in black market fleet leading to a rise in idle capacity and a decline in effective fleet capacity [2] - **Transportation**: Global VLCC transportation demand increased slightly, but black market demand grew more significantly, while compliant oil market transportation demand saw a slight decline [2] - **Terminal Demand**: Oil price trends are key to changes in transportation demand, with global inventories at low levels and weak demand leading to soft crack spreads [2] Freight Rates - The average VLCC TD3C-TCE rate year-to-date as of September 18 was $36,911/day, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Clarksons predicts a 5.2% growth in VLCC transportation demand by 2025 [2] Supply - The global VLCC fleet remained at 908 vessels as of early September, with black market fleet increasing by 41 vessels to 160 vessels since the end of 2023 [2] - 16.4% of the fleet (149 vessels) are over 20 years old, with 60% of these being black market vessels [2] - 49 new VLCC orders were signed this year, with some scheduled for delivery as late as 2028, accounting for 7.9% of the order book [2] Transportation - Global VLCC ton-mile trade increased by 1.5% year-on-year from January to August 2024, with average sailing distance up 1.6% [2] - Iran and Venezuela's VLCC ton-mile exports surged by 58.1%, while compliant oil VLCC ton-mile exports excluding Iran and Venezuela fell by 1.5% [2] Terminal Demand - Oil prices were high in the first half of 2024 due to geopolitical conflicts but declined in the second half due to weak demand and economic recession concerns [2] - Global inventories are at low levels, with strong operations at China's state-owned refineries but weak performance at independent refineries [2] - Crack spreads for gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US are weak, with thin profit margins for China's refined oil exports [2] Valuation and Recommendations - **COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation** has a market cap/NAV of 0.95x, while **China Merchants Energy Shipping** has a market cap/NAV of 0.90x [39] - The report highlights the potential for stock price increases driven by seasonal freight rate hikes and recommends both companies due to the expected increase in transportation demand and stable supply dynamics [39] Key Data - **COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation**: Market cap of RMB 63 billion, NAV of RMB 66.05 billion, and a PE ratio of 10.8x for 2024E [40][41] - **China Merchants Energy Shipping**: Market cap of RMB 54.5 billion, NAV of RMB 60.77 billion, and a PE ratio of 9.3x for 2024E [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aurobindo Pharma with a "Buy" rating, citing a 10 99% upside potential to the target market value of 9 1 billion RMB based on a PEG valuation of 0 75x [6][54] Core Views - Aurobindo Pharma has established six major technological innovation platforms, including biofermentation, complex synthesis, synthetic biology, photochemistry, crystal research, and oligonucleotide synthesis, which support its transition from small molecules to peptides and oligonucleotides [3] - The company's first formulation, Dydrogesterone, was approved in June 2023, marking a significant breakthrough in its "API + Formulation" integrated strategy [3] - Aurobindo Pharma has a diversified product portfolio covering six core therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, oncology, women's health, respiratory, nervous system, and anti-infectives, with strong performance in cardiovascular, oncology, and women's health segments [3] - The company is focusing on the "API + Formulation" integration strategy and is proactively laying out oligonucleotide business for long-term growth potential [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 16 03 billion RMB in 2024 to 24 14 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 23 47% [4][6] - Net profit is projected to increase from 3 83 billion RMB in 2024 to 6 63 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 31 5% [4][6] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 58 8% in 2024 to 61 7% in 2026, driven by the formulation business [4][6] Business Segments - The API and intermediates segment accounted for 83 87% of total revenue in 2023, with cardiovascular, oncology, and women's health products showing strong growth [3][23] - The formulation segment, currently represented by Dydrogesterone, is expected to grow rapidly with the launch of Abiraterone Acetate, Enzalutamide, and Estradiol/Dydrogesterone combination tablets [4][7] - The trade and other businesses are relatively small, with combined revenues expected to grow from 1 26 billion RMB in 2024 to 1 55 billion RMB in 2026 [7] Strategic Initiatives - Aurobindo Pharma is expanding its production capacity with new facilities and projects, including a 300kg Semaglutide API production line and a 3 billion Estradiol/Dydrogesterone combination tablet production line [31][32] - The company is investing in oligonucleotide technology, with a dedicated platform and team to support the development of nucleic acid drugs [45][47] - Aurobindo Pharma has a robust R&D pipeline, including Semaglutide, Finerenone, and other innovative APIs and formulations, with significant progress in synthetic biology and process optimization [35][37]