行 业 及 产 业 - 公用事业 2024 年 09 月 09 日 绿证核发及交易新规发布 欧亚气价 高位回落 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(24/09/02~24/09/06) 本期投资提示： ⚫ 电力： 近期国家能源局发布《可再生能源绿色电力证书核发和交易规则》。2023 年 7 月，国家能源局、 国家发改委、财政部联合印发《关于做好可再生能源绿色电力证书全覆盖工作 促进可再生能源电力消费的 通知》，明确绿证可再生能源电量环境属性的证明和可再生能源电力生产、消费的凭证地位，要求绿证核 发全覆盖。本次《可再生能源绿色电力证书核发和交易规则》的发布，进一步规范了绿证核发和交易行 为，明确了绿证核发、交易、划转、核销等方面的具体要求，有助于充分体现可再生能源项目绿色环境价 值，完善绿证绿电交易市场，深化全社会绿色电力消费环境，对推动可再生能源高质量发展、支撑清洁能 源低碳转型、助力经济社会绿色发展具有重要意义。 ⚫ 天然气： 全球气价涨跌互现，欧亚回落而美国反弹。截至 9 月 6 日，美国 Henry Hub 现货价格为 $2.10/mmBtu，周度环比涨幅 8.81%；荷兰 TTF 现货价格为€39.60/MW ...

上 市 公 司 国防军工 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 08 日 铖昌科技 (001270) ——期间费用及减值损失增加影响短期业绩，看好长期成 长空间 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 06 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 28.54 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 95.80/28.40 | | 市净率 | 4.4 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.70 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 2,894 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,765.81/8,130.77 | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.55 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 8.21 | | 总股本/流通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company has a complete integration in phosphate chemicals, highlighting its high dividend attributes. It has become one of the largest phosphate mining and fertilizer production companies in China and is among the top ten phosphate fertilizer producers globally. The company benefits from high-quality phosphate resources in Yunnan and has a solid "mining and chemical integration" barrier, extending downstream into fine phosphate chemical businesses, leading to significant industry chain advantages and higher profit margins compared to peers [1][17][22]. - Phosphate ore supply may be lower than market expectations, with high demand expected to continue for at least three years. China contributes 41% of the world's phosphate production with only 5% of the reserves, and the demand for phosphate is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%. Current supply shortages are keeping phosphate prices at historically high levels [1][9][30]. - Capacity control and cost support are expected to keep phosphate fertilizer prices high. Although global grain prices have declined since their peak in 2022, the ongoing economic growth and food security concerns are expected to support price levels. China's phosphate fertilizer production and demand have significantly declined since 2017, but are expected to stabilize in the future [1][4][30]. - The company’s POM (Polyoxymethylene) still has significant room for high-end substitution, and the synergy between phosphorus and fluorine resources is facilitating industrial transformation. The company leads in the development of fluorosilicic acid from phosphate by-products, which is crucial for entering the fluorochemical industry [1][5][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Phosphate Chemical Integration and High Dividend Attributes - The company has evolved from a nitrogen fertilizer base to a comprehensive phosphate chemical enterprise through various asset injections and acquisitions, establishing a strong market position [1][17]. - The actual controller of the company is the Yunnan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which holds a significant stake [21]. - The integration of mining and chemical operations has created cost advantages, with substantial phosphate reserves and production capabilities [22][23]. 2. Supply-side Logic of Phosphate Chemicals - The report discusses the tight supply of phosphate ore and the impact of environmental regulations on production capacity, suggesting that the supply-side logic will strengthen in the future [29][30]. 3. High Demand for Phosphate Ore - The report predicts that the high demand for phosphate ore will persist until at least 2027, driven by the increasing need for phosphate in various applications, including lithium iron phosphate for batteries [1][9]. 4. Phosphate Fertilizer Price Stability - The report anticipates that phosphate fertilizer prices will remain stable at high levels due to controlled production and ongoing demand [1][4]. 5. POM and Fluorine Resource Synergy - The company is positioned to benefit from the high-end substitution of POM and the development of fluorine resources, which are essential for its industrial transformation [1][5][22]. 6. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 52.25 billion, 55.59 billion, and 58.79 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 2.85, 3.03, and 3.20 yuan per share [2][7].

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 农林牧渔 2024 年 09 月 08 日 如何看待鸡苗价格快速上涨？ 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2024.9.2-2024.9.8） 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 胡静航 A0230122090003 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 (8621)23297818× shenghan@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.8%，沪深 300 下跌 2.7%。个股涨幅前五名：*ST 傲农（11.5%）、华英农 业（10.8%）、金粮控股（10.1%）、万辰集团（3.3%）、播恩集团（2.6%），跌幅前五名：国投中鲁（- 10.6%）、国联水产（-6.1%）、冠农股份（-5.8%）、科前生物（-5.6%）、神农集团（-5.1%）。投资分析 意见：宠物消费景气，聚焦头部企业成长确定性；布局畜禽养殖龙头业绩兑现。国内 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 国防军工 2024 年 09 月 08 日 军工整体趋势向上，建议加大行业 关注度 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2024 年第 37 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 3.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 2.26%，同期上证综指下 跌 2.69%，沪深 300 下跌 2.71%，创业板指下跌 2.68%，申万国防军工指数跑输创业 板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 3.15%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 22 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名靠后，平均跌幅为 2.56%。3、 从个股表现来看，申万国防军工板块及民参军上市公司名单中，剔除停牌个股后，上周 国防军工板块涨幅排名前五的个股分别为中光学（18.51%）、合众思壮（18.44%）、长 春一东（12.69%）、中船科技（11.86%）、中海达（8.01%）。上周国防军工板块涨幅排 名后五的个股分别为春兴精工（-11.54%）、中国船舶（-9.04%）、同 ...

行 业 及 产 业 汽车 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 08 日 H1 汽车板块营收利润同比双增， 内需韧性和海外扩张远好于预期 看好 ——2024/9/1-2024/9/6 汽车周报 本期投资提示： ⚫ 观点：今年汽车板块整体表现出整车、商用车强于零部件，核心原因是基于内卷加剧以 及海外扩张（建厂）的不确定性，导致大家对于以"成长性"为主的零部件后续业绩有 所担忧。但是随着中报落地，即使结合今年原材料、汇兑、海运等负向因素影响，汽车 业绩也一枝独秀，根据申万汽车零部件分类，2024H1 板块营收同比增长 9%，归母净 利润同比增长高达 34%，是少数实现营收、利润均增长的板块。金九银十已来，我们 对下半年行业需求恢复抱有乐观态度。站在当下时点，诸多优秀的企业仍然保持高增， 且伴随内需韧性，海外关税较强的悲观预期已被完全反映在股价中，后续有望迎来预期 好转。我们看好具备强α的企业后续基于业绩增长的股价修复，以及智能化变革带来的 颠覆性机会，建议关注比亚迪、理想、华为、小鹏、长城、吉利等自主新能源的领导 者；以及业绩兑现能力强+全球化进展加速零部件企业如新泉、 ...

煤炭/ 究 / 煤炭开采 2024 年 09 月 08 日 水电出力减少，但需求进入淡季， 预期煤价以震荡为主 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2024.09.02-2024.09.06） 本期投资提示： 动力煤方面，截至 9 月 6 日，根据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口动力煤现货价环比上周 五上涨 3 元/吨，收报 842 元/吨。供给端相对平稳，根据中国煤炭市场网统计的环渤海 四港区数据，截至 9 月 6 日，当周日均调入量 170.46 万吨，环比上周增长 0.46 万吨， 环比基本持平，同比去年增长 7.49%。需求端，由于高温天气延续，叠加南方来水转 弱、水电发力下降，本周港口调出量有所增加。截至 9 月 6 日，根据中国煤炭市场网统 计的环渤海四港区数据，日均调出量 183.10 万吨，环比上周上涨 10.01 万吨，涨幅 5.79%，高于去年同期约 7.11%。港口库存方面，根据中国煤炭市场网统计的环渤海四 港区数据，截至 9 月 6 日，库存 2291.8 万吨，环比上周减少 103.8 万吨，降幅 4.33%。由于南方水电预期转弱，煤价止跌，但是天气将逐渐转凉，预计近期动力煤价 以震荡为主。炼焦煤方面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the communication industry, highlighting sectors with strong growth potential and favorable valuations [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continued economic recovery in the communication sector, focusing on high-growth areas such as unified communication, IDC, Beidou positioning, and connectors [3][4]. - Key companies are identified for their robust performance, including Yilian Network, Runze Technology, and Huace Navigation, which have shown significant revenue and profit growth [3][4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Unified Communication - Yilian Network reported revenue of 2.667 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with net profit reaching 1.36 billion yuan, up 32% [3][11]. - The growth is attributed to improved downstream demand and rising profit margins, with a net margin of 53% in Q2 2024, up from 49% in Q1 2024 [11]. IDC - The IDC sector is experiencing a shift towards AIDC as a new growth driver, with Runze Technology's AIDC business showing a revenue increase of 1147.85% [3][12]. - Traditional IDC is undergoing supply pressure relief, with a focus on cluster delivery capabilities becoming crucial for competition [12][14]. Beidou Positioning - Huace Navigation achieved revenue of 1.484 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 22.86% increase, with net profit growing by 42.96% [3][17]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, with international revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue, reflecting strong growth potential [17]. Connectors - Dielian Technology reported H1 2024 revenue of 2.144 billion yuan, a 57.1% increase, with net profit soaring by 145.8% [3][18]. - The company has seen significant growth in automotive connectors, with revenue up 90.3%, and is expanding its global presence [18][19]. Operators - The report highlights the resilience of operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, with stable growth in both personal and enterprise markets [3][20][22]. - Operators are expected to play a crucial role in supporting the digital transformation of society, with a focus on AI and cloud network demands [22]. Submarine Cables - The submarine cable sector is recovering, supported by ongoing offshore wind projects and opportunities in Europe due to supply shortages [4][23][24]. - The report suggests that domestic companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities as the industry enters a phase of increased construction activity [24]. Liquid Cooling - The demand for liquid cooling solutions is expected to surge due to rising power density in data centers, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 59% from 2023 to 2027 [4][25]. - The report emphasizes the necessity of liquid cooling in meeting the cooling requirements of high-performance computing environments [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that PX (Paraxylene) profits have significantly declined since mid-August due to falling oil prices and widening supply-demand dynamics, leading to a shift in profitability towards downstream sectors [3][12] - It is anticipated that while PX supply will remain tight in the medium to long term due to limited new capacity, short-term profitability will remain low, benefiting downstream profitability [3][12] Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: PX supply has increased in the short term due to weakened oil demand, but medium to long-term new capacity additions are limited, keeping supply tight. The only production route for PX is from naphtha, which is also used for toluene production [3][8] - Demand: Downstream PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) has seen reduced profitability leading to more shutdowns, but PTA operating rates have returned to normal levels as the demand season approaches, suggesting future PX demand growth [9][11] Industry Analysis - Upstream: Brent crude oil prices fell to $71.06 per barrel, a decrease of 9.82% from the previous week. The report notes a decline in drilling rig counts and daily rates, indicating a seasonal dip in oil demand [18][20][26] - Refining Sector: The report indicates an improvement in refining margins with rising product price spreads, although overall margins remain low. The Singapore refining margin increased to $9.57 per barrel [40][42] - Polyester Sector: PTA profitability has decreased while polyester filament profitability has improved. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the polyester sector as new capacity comes online [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong. It also suggests investing in polyester companies like Tongkun Co., given the expected demand recovery in the upcoming peak season [13][14]

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 - 2024 年 09 月 08 日 上海市家电以旧换新新增扫地机等 品类，家电 7 月出口量额增幅均超 50% 看好 ——《2024/08/31-2024/09/06》家电周报 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周家电板块跑赢沪深 300 指数。本周申万家用电器板块指数下降 1.0%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 2.7%。重点公司方面，海信家电（7.0%）、科沃斯（4.1%）、华翔股 份（3.9%）领涨，光峰科技（-9.3%）、公牛集团（-7.2%）、九阳股份（-4.4%）领 跌。 ⚫ 行业动态：1）上海市家电以旧换新政策落地：上海市家电以旧换新落地，对个人消费 者购买冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器、家用灶具、吸油烟机 8 类 1 级能 效产品按照销售价格 20%予以补贴，新增扫地机器人、吸尘器、空气净化器等家电产 品，按照销售价格的 15%给予补贴。2）家电 7 月出口量额同比增幅均超过 50%：根 据产业在线数据，2024 年 7 月家用空调出口市场延续快速增长，出口量达到 666.3 万 台，同比增长 54.3%；销售额 13.7 亿美元，同比上涨 51.1%，已连续 12 ...