行 业 及 产 业 汽车 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 10 日看好小鹏汽车后续表现 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W073） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 当前时点，基于小鹏新车型销量表现超预期、盈利能力有望提升、后续智驾进一步突破 等边际向好的趋势持续显现，我们看好小鹏后续的市场表现。 ⚫ MONA 首发定价、销量超预期，P7+将于 Q4 上市，新车订单放量将改善公司盈利能 力。小鹏新车 MONA M03 于 2024 年 8 月 27 日上市，515 长续航版/620 超长续航版 /580 超长续航 Max 版（搭载高阶智能辅助驾驶）售价分别为 11.98 /12.98 /15.58 万 元，性价比超市场预期。M03 正式上市后仅 52 分钟，订单量就突破了 1 万台，上市 48 小时内大定突破 3 万辆。根据 FANS 上市新车销售周报统计，当前 MONA M03 店均新 增大定 50~60 台，进店量上涨 300%，进店量占比 80%。从地域角度看，地方城市授 权门店销售情况超预期，例如佛山、无锡等地门店直接大定过百。我们认为 MONA M03 销量超预期 ...

行 业 及 产 业 建筑装饰 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 08 日 中非合作论坛顺利召开，海外投资弹性加大 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20240902-20240906） 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面， SW 建筑装饰指数-5.05%，沪深 300 指数 -2.71%，相对收益为-2.34pct，板块表现弱于大市，在 31 个板块排名中 排第 27 位。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为家装（+3.70%）、生态园林 （-0.86%）、专业工程（-0.92%），对应行业内三个公司：中天精装 （+18.73%）、岭南股份（+19.42%）、罗曼股份（+14.15%）；年涨幅 最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.237 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.31%, with a net profit of 2.212 billion yuan, down 56.6% year-on-year. However, the performance was at the upper limit of the forecast [4] - The domestic potassium fertilizer market is showing signs of recovery after a decline, with Q2 2024 sales volume reaching 1.4724 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 92.65% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from a significant lithium salt project that has completed all necessary approvals and is projected to contribute to earnings starting in 2025 [4] Financial Data Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 21.579 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 16.372 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.1% [6][7] - The net profit for 2023 was 7.914 billion yuan, with an expected decline to 5.516 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 30.3% [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.02 yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 1.39 yuan in 2025 [6][7]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工 2024 年 09 月 09 日 盐湖股份 (000792) ——五矿集团正式入主，打造世界级盐湖产业集团 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 06 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 14.72 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 18.55/13.10 | | 市净率 | 2.3 | | 息率（分红/股价） | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 79,971 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,765.81/8,130.77 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | | 6.28 | | 每股净资产（元） | | | 资产负债率 % | 24.24 | | 总股本 /流通 A 股（百万） | 5,43 ...

Industry Overview - The industrial automation market size in H1 2024 was 1475.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.8%, reflecting weak manufacturing demand [2] - Downstream demand is diverging, with project-based markets remaining stable while OEM markets are weak [2] - The PMI for January-June 2024 was below the boom-bust line except for March and April, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [2] Market Segmentation - OEM market size in H1 2024 was 533.2 billion yuan, down 7.2% YoY, with growth in textiles, HVAC, industrial robots, packaging, food & beverage, plastics, and rubber industries [2] - Project-based market size in H1 2024 was 943.5 billion yuan, down 0.1% YoY, with growth in chemicals, municipal & public facilities, mining, and paper industries [2] - HMI, small PLC, and CNC systems saw slight growth, while large PLC, AC servo systems, and low-voltage inverters experienced significant declines [2] Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with Inovance Technology holding 14%, 33%, and 22% shares in small PLC, AC servo systems, and low-voltage inverters respectively [2] - In the HMI market, Siemens leads with a 27% share, followed by non-listed companies Weintek and Kunlun Tongtai [34] - In the CNC system market, Fanuc, Siemens, and Mitsubishi dominate, with domestic brands like Guangzhou CNC and KND also holding significant shares [44] Financial Performance of Key Companies - In H1 2024, 9 listed industrial automation companies achieved total revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, up 21% YoY, with net profit down 2.3% to 3.13 billion yuan [3] - Average gross margin was 32.6%, down 2.3 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 12.1%, down 2.9 percentage points [3] - R&D expense ratio was 9.8%, reflecting continued investment in technology and product development [3] Future Opportunities - Three key opportunities are identified: domestic substitution in niche sectors, equipment renewal, and overseas expansion of domestic brands [3] - The domestic substitution rate in process industries and traditional sectors remains low, offering significant growth potential [3] - The "Large-scale Equipment Renewal Policy" is expected to drive demand for automation equipment, particularly in CNC systems and energy efficiency improvements [3] - Domestic brands are expanding into mature markets like Europe and North America, as well as emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Belt & Road countries [3]

业绩如期平稳，聚焦高股息、高拨备的优质银行 银行业2024年中报综述 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 证券分析师： 郑庆明 | A0230519090001 \n林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 | | | | | 研究支持： 李禹昊 | A0230123070008 | | | | | | | | | | | 联系人： 郑庆明 | A | | | | | 2024.09.09 | | | | | 投资要点 ◼ 中报上市银行营收符合前期判断，尽管短期承压但并不会出现大起大落，同时利润增速转正也好于预期： 1H24上市银行营收同比下 滑2%（1Q24为下滑1.8%），归母净利润同比增长0.4%（1Q24为下滑0.6%）。尽管"不唯增量论下"规模增速放缓对营收贡献有 所减弱，但主动压降低效资产助力息差降幅收窄， ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [5]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 686 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 208 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [5]. - The growth in revenue is driven by significant increases in the sales of cataract lenses and contact lenses, with the latter seeing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 956.9% [5]. - The company's gross margin decreased to 69.68% from 83.15% in the previous year, influenced by price reductions from centralized procurement and a higher proportion of revenue from contact lenses [5]. - Research and development efforts are ongoing, with a total investment of 68.6 million yuan in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.43% [5]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 686 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 68.5% [6]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is estimated at 395 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.9% [5][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.08 yuan, with a gross margin forecasted to be around 69.1% [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Guizhou Tire, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market [5][6]. Core Insights - Guizhou Tire's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 5.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 427 million yuan, up 25.7% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's production and sales of tires continued to grow, supported by increased capacity from its Vietnam factory, which saw a significant rise in both production and sales [6][7]. - The report highlights the impact of rising raw material costs and shipping expenses on the company's gross margin, which slightly declined to 19.65% [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, Guizhou Tire achieved a tire production volume of approximately 4.7942 million units (YoY +18.8%) and sales of 4.7175 million units (YoY +19.8%) [6]. - The Vietnam factory produced 1.026 million tires (YoY +121%) and generated revenue of 882 million yuan (YoY +97%) [6]. - The company's net profit margin improved to 8.29%, reflecting effective cost control despite rising costs [6][7]. Future Projections - The report projects a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of approximately 910 million, 1.08 billion, and 1.27 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for these years are approximately 7, 6, and 5 times [7]. Market Context - The domestic all-steel tire market is experiencing a slowdown in replacement demand due to infrastructure and logistics sector impacts, while overseas demand continues to grow [6][7]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape for non-road products has intensified, which may affect future profitability [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5][7] Core Insights - Tencent's enterprise services are currently maintaining double-digit revenue growth with improving profit margins, making it a key focus for the company's long-term prospects [6] - Tencent Cloud's "Three Clouds" strategy includes: 1) Intelligent Cloud, featuring AI capabilities across various layers; 2) Integrated Innovation Cloud, with domestic software products; 3) International Cloud, including Tencent Meeting and EdgeOne [6] - The launch of the new generation model, Mix Yuan Turbo, shows significant improvements in efficiency and cost, with applications already in over 700 business scenarios [6] - International business has become a new growth driver for Tencent Cloud, with double-digit growth over the past three years and a diverse client base across various regions [6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: 2022: 554.6 billion RMB, 2023: 609 billion RMB, 2024E: 664.2 billion RMB, 2025E: 726.3 billion RMB [8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: 2022: 115.6 billion RMB, 2023: 157.7 billion RMB, 2024E: 214.9 billion RMB, 2025E: 246.7 billion RMB [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: 2022: 12.14 RMB, 2023: 16.68 RMB, 2024E: 23.00 RMB, 2025E: 26.41 RMB [8]