行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 石油石化 2024 年 09 月 08 日 24Q2 上游受益于油价上涨，炼化 检修和需求淡季影响业绩释放，涤 纶长丝价差环比修复 看好 ——石油化工 2024 中报业绩总结 相关研究 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230122100002 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2024Q2 原油价格同比、环比上升，成品油价格上调：2024 年 4、5、6 月 Brent 原油 均价分别为 89.0、83.0、83.0 美元/桶，波动区间为 78—91 美元；2024Q2 均价为 85.0 美元/桶，环比上升 4.0%，同比上升 6.3%，收于 86.41 美元/桶。2024Q2 汽油、 柴油价格累计上调 4 次，下调 2 次，累计汽油、柴油 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the rail transit equipment sector, highlighting the sector's outperformance compared to broader market indices and other machinery sub-sectors [2][7] Core Views - The rail transit equipment sector has shown significant outperformance, with the sector index rising by 1.75% year-to-date, outperforming the machinery sector, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index by 21.36%, 7.53%, and 14.94% respectively [2][7] - The sector is driven by strong demand for new vehicles and increased maintenance capital expenditures, with railway fixed asset investment growing by 10.6% YoY in H1 2024 [3] - The sector's profitability is expected to improve due to the overlapping demand for new vehicles, maintenance, and replacement, with a focus on companies like CRRC, Times Electric, and China Railway Signal & Communication [5] Sector Performance - The rail transit equipment sector has seen a clear divergence in performance, with only 5 out of 30 companies achieving positive returns, and large-cap companies like CRRC, Times Electric, and China Railway Signal & Communication leading the gains [2][8] - The sector's overall revenue and net profit have improved, with total revenue of 30 companies reaching 155.48 billion yuan, up 0.98% YoY, and net profit reaching 9.88 billion yuan, up 3.85% YoY [4] Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the maintenance and replacement cycle, with the demand for railway vehicles expected to grow steadily, driven by the combination of new, maintenance, and replacement needs [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies like CRRC, Times Electric, Thinking Control, and China Railway Signal & Communication, which are expected to benefit from the sector's growth [5] Railway Fixed Asset Investment - Railway fixed asset investment in H1 2024 reached 337.3 billion yuan, up 10.6% YoY, with the full-year investment expected to exceed 800 billion yuan [11] - The structure of investment has shifted, with a significant increase in vehicle-related expenditures, as new lines of 979.6 kilometers were opened in H1 2024 [11] Vehicle Bidding - The bidding for high-speed trains in H1 2024 exceeded expectations, with 204 sets of trains bid, including 165 sets of 350 km/h trains, surpassing the total bidding volume of 2023 [13] - The bidding volume for high-speed trains in H1 2024 was 204 sets, with 165 sets of 350 km/h trains, indicating strong demand for high-speed rail vehicles [13] Underlying Demand - Railway passenger traffic in H1 2024 reached 2.522 billion passengers, up 15.7% YoY, exceeding pre-pandemic levels [15] - Railway freight traffic in H1 2024 reached 2.945 billion tons, up 2.2% YoY, setting a new historical record [15] National Railway Support - The national railway's profitability has improved significantly, with transportation revenue reaching 484.1 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 4.7% YoY, and net profit reaching 1.7 billion yuan, marking the first time since 2011 that the national railway has achieved a profit in the first half of the year [16] - The debt-to-asset ratio of the national railway has dropped to its lowest level in 10 years [16] Sector Performance Review - The overall revenue and net profit of the rail transit equipment sector have improved, with total revenue of 30 companies reaching 155.48 billion yuan, up 0.98% YoY, and net profit reaching 9.88 billion yuan, up 3.85% YoY [19] - Companies related to vehicle manufacturing have performed more prominently, with revenue of 116.61 billion yuan, up 5.45% YoY, and net profit of 6.5 billion yuan, up 23.62% YoY [23] Profit Margin Improvement - The net profit margin of the sector has improved, with the overall net profit margin of 30 companies reaching 6.36% in H1 2024, up 0.81 percentage points YoY [28] - The net profit margin of vehicle-related companies reached 6.35% in Q2 2024, up 0.52 percentage points YoY [28] Future Demand - The report predicts that the demand for new high-speed rail vehicles will peak in 2025, with the total operating mileage of high-speed rail expected to reach 50,000 kilometers by 2025, up from the current 44,997 kilometers [31] - The demand for maintenance and replacement of high-speed rail vehicles is expected to increase, with the first batch of high-speed rail vehicles expected to reach the end of their service life by 2027 [35] CRRC's Order Trends - CRRC's orders for railway equipment have shown a clear upward trend, with total orders for railway equipment reaching 115.8 billion yuan from December 2023 to July 2024, including 70.1 billion yuan for high-speed trains [38] - CRRC's orders for high-speed train maintenance reached 28.46 billion yuan in H1 2024, exceeding the total for 2023 [38] Profitability Improvement - The profitability of CRRC's vehicle manufacturing business has improved, with the net profit margin of its four major vehicle manufacturing subsidiaries reaching 6.0% in H1 2024, up from 5.9% in 2023 [41] - CRRC's overall net profit margin reached 4.7% in H1 2024, up from 4.0% in 2023 [41]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产 2024 年 09 月 08 日 回溯历史、照鉴当下，存量房贷有望再降息 看好 ——我国存量房贷利率调降回顾及展望 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com ⚫ 历史回顾：08、23 年两次调降存量房贷利率，本轮存量利率调降力度仍弱于 08 年。 从历史看，第一次调降：2008 年 10 月央行发布《关于扩大商业性个人住房贷款利率 下浮幅度等有关问题的通知》，将存量房贷利率下限调整至基准利率的七折；此后中小 银行率先调息"转按揭"抢夺优质客户，国有大行随后公告跟进调降利率。调整幅度 看，08 年 10 月存量房贷利率 6.12%（基准利率 7.2%的 85 折）下降至 12 月 4.16% （基准利率 5.94%的 7 折），调降 196BP，年度 RMBS 早偿率均值 16% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, particularly in insurance and brokerage firms [2]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is focusing on the development of participating insurance products to reduce liability costs and enhance equity allocation. The recent regulatory changes have lowered the maximum guaranteed interest rates for various insurance products, which is expected to drive the growth of participating insurance [2][10]. - The brokerage sector is experiencing significant consolidation, highlighted by the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which is set to create the largest brokerage firm in the industry. This merger is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market positioning [2][23]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The Shenwan Insurance II Index decreased by 0.26%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.45 percentage points. The shift to participating insurance is seen as a strategic move to lower fixed liability costs and improve asset-liability matching [2][6]. - As of September 1, 2024, the maximum guaranteed interest rate for new ordinary insurance products has been reduced by 50 basis points to 2.5%. From October 1, 2024, the caps for participating and universal insurance will also decrease to 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively [2][10]. - The report highlights that participating insurance has a lower fixed liability cost compared to traditional products, allowing insurers to share some of the interest rate risks with policyholders [2][10]. Brokerage Sector - The Shenwan Brokerage Index fell by 0.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.27 percentage points. The report notes that the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is a landmark event in the brokerage industry, marking the first major restructuring among leading firms in this cycle [2][23]. - If the merger is completed, the combined assets of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities will reach 1.6195 trillion yuan and 331.1 billion yuan in net assets, surpassing CITIC Securities to become the largest brokerage firm [2][23]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on brokerage firms that are likely to undergo consolidation, recommending firms such as China Galaxy, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [2][23].

行 业 及 产 业 医药生物 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 08 日 本周医药下跌 2.0%，14 部门要求 推进健康乡村建设，佐力发布 Q3 预告兑现高增长 看好 ——医药行业周报（2024/9/2-2024/9/6） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 市场表现：本周申万医药生物指下跌 2.0%，同期上证指数下跌 2.7%，万得全 A（除金 融石油石化）下跌 2.7%。本周医药生物指数在 31 个申万一级子行业中表现排名第 14。各三级板块涨跌幅为：原料药（-3.0%）、化学制剂（-1.0%）、中药（- 2.3%）、血液制品（-1.8%）、疫苗（-3.9%）、其他生物制品（-3.7%）、医疗设备 （-3.8%）、医疗耗材（-0.6%）、体外诊断（-2.0%）、医药流通（+0.6%）、线下 药店（+5.1%）、医疗研发外包（-2.3%）、医院（-3.5%），药店板块表现较为突 出。当前医药板块整体估值 22.2 倍（PE-2024E），在 31 个申万一级行业(2021)中排 名第 4。 ⚫ 14 部门联合发布《关于推进健康乡村建设的指导意见》：9 月 3 日，国家卫健委 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工 2024 年 09 月 08 日 R32 外贸价格上行，传统旺季即将 来临，重点关注低估值高成长标的 看好 ——《化工周报 24/09/02-24/09/06》 本期投资提示： ⚫ 当前时点的化工宏观判断。根据 wind 数据统计，原油：国内经济仍在复苏通道，美联 储加息结束降息进程有望开启，俄罗斯及 OPEC+减产，全球原油供给偏紧，油价 Q3 有望维持 80 美元/桶附近。煤炭：煤炭价格中长期回落，中下游压力逐步缓解。天然 气：海外天然气价格底部震荡。总体上，能源价格仍将维持在中枢以上。化学工业 7 月 份 PPI 同比虽然下滑 0.5%，但下滑幅度收窄，7-8 月份是传统淡季，后续 PPI 仍将持 续震荡向上。 ⚫ 化工板块配置。根据 wind 数据统计，本周油价回落煤价反弹，海外天然气价格底部震 荡。海外处于持续去库状态是 24H1 制冷剂外贸价格不温不火的重要原因，制冷剂存放 要求高库存周期短，去库尾声或已来临，根据海关总署数据，5-7 月 R32 单质出口均 价环比分别上涨 9%/10%/6%；根据百川盈孚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [3]. Core Views - The company has released its 2024 half-year report, with performance in line with expectations. For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.005 billion yuan (up 2% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 454 million yuan (down 11% year-on-year) [3][4]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to the gradual release of new compound fertilizer production capacity, with a 24% year-on-year increase in compound fertilizer sales in H1 2024 [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with ongoing projects, including a 150,000-ton soluble compound fertilizer project in Hubei, which has entered trial production [3]. - The report highlights the challenges faced by the company due to intensified competition and weak demand in the soda ash and yellow phosphorus sectors, leading to a decline in profitability in these areas [3]. - The company is focusing on the integrated utilization of phosphoric acid and advancing projects related to phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia, which are expected to enhance profitability in the long term [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 10.54%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 868 million yuan, an increase of 214% year-on-year [3]. - The company forecasts revenues of 22.071 billion yuan for 2024, with a projected net profit of 1.026 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading domestic compound fertilizer enterprise, with plans to enhance its phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia operations while also developing refined phosphoric acid projects [3]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategy to optimize its industrial structure and improve cost advantages through scale and high-value development [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 1.231 billion yuan for 2025 and 1.477 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to earnings per share of 1.02 yuan and 1.22 yuan, respectively [4].

上 市 公 司 基础化工 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 09 月 06 日 永和股份 (605020) ——Q2 氟碳化学品及氟聚物携手放量，邵武永和扭亏为 盈 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 05 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 15.15 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 33.68/14.76 | | 市净率 | 2.3 | | | | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.99 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 5,728 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,788.31/8,249.66 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.71 | | 资产负债率 % | 62.09 | | 总股本 /流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. [5][6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 84.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.556 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year [5][6] - The company reported a slight increase in coal sales, with a total of 131.55 million tons sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.29%. However, coal prices faced pressure, with self-produced coal selling at 538.2 yuan per ton, down 9.51% year-on-year [5][6] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 1.09 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.056 billion yuan, which accounts for 10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the period [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 84.737 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.556 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The company’s coal production reached 86.407 million tons, with a slight increase in sales volume but a decline in prices due to market conditions [5][6] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 21.328 billion yuan, 24.145 billion yuan, and 24.984 billion yuan respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11X for 2024 [6][7] Market Comparison - The report compares Shaanxi Coal with China Shenhua, noting that both are leading thermal coal producers in China. The expected net profit for China Shenhua in 2024 is 60.036 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 13X [6][7]

证 券 研 究 报 告 上半年表现分化，看好下半年企稳复苏 2024年下半年激光行业展望 证券分析师：王珂 A0230521120002 李蕾 A0230519080008 刘建伟 A0230521100003 张婧玮 A0230523090001 联系人： 何佳霖 A0230523080002 2024.9.6 投资要点 ◼ 上半年回顾： • 1）【收入端】24Q2受到高基数及需求承压影响，收入降速。24Q2板块营收72.04亿，yoy0.82% • 2）【利润端】24Q2板块扣非归母净利润7.05亿，yoy-8.44% • 3）【费用端】24Q2板块综合费用率26.90%，环比-2.86pct，保持高位 • 4）【盈利端】 24Q2综合毛利率38.46%，环比+0.64pct，24Q2综合扣非净利率9.78%，环比 +2.90pct，盈利能力环比提升，软件环节盈利最佳 ◼ 下半年展望： ◼ 推荐方向： ◼ 建议关注各子产业链环节有技术竞争力、拥有定价话语权、盈利能力持续提升的公司 ◼ 1）重点推荐：柏楚电子、锐科激光、联赢激光、帝尔激光、华工科技 ◼ 2）建议关注：大族激光、杰普特、英诺激光、逸飞激光、德 ...