增持（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2024 11 10 年 月 日 煤炭开采 特朗普胜选对化石能源的影响梳理 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2024 年 11 月 08 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原油 期货结算价为 73.87 美元/桶，较上周上涨 0.77 美元/桶（+1.05%）；WTI 原油期 货结算价为 70.38 美元/桶，较上周上涨 0.89 美元/桶（+1.28%）。天然气价格方 面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 13.55 美元/百万英热，较上周上涨 0.08 美元/百万 英热（+0.6%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价为 42.4 欧元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 3.35 欧元/兆瓦时（+8.6%）；美国 HH 天然气期货结算价为 2.67 美元/百万英热， 较上周上涨 0.01 美元/百万英热（+0.2%）。煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭 （6000K）到岸价 120.2 美元/吨，较上周上涨 0.2 美元/吨（+0.2%）；纽卡斯尔 港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 143.4 美元/吨，较上周下跌 0.6 美元/吨（-0.4%）； IPE 南非理查兹 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the trend of "optical black technology" and the rapid development of domestic computing power as key drivers for the industry [3][8] - AI-driven demand for computing power is expected to grow exponentially, necessitating breakthroughs in computing architecture, chip technology, and communication technologies [3] - Domestic computing power in China has reached 246 EFLOPS, with plans to increase to 300 EFLOPS by 2025, 35% of which will be allocated to AI applications [8] Optical Black Technology - Silicon photonics (SiPh) integrates optical communication with silicon chips, offering high bandwidth and low latency, making it suitable for data centers and AI applications [4] - Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) reduces costs and power consumption by co-packaging optical modules with switch chips, making it a long-term optimal solution for high integration and low power consumption [4] - Optical I/O (OIO) directly integrates optical engines into GPUs, representing the next evolution in data center optical communication [4] - Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) eliminates the need for electro-optical conversion, significantly reducing data transmission latency [5] - Optical Computing Interconnect (OCI) uses optical signals for data transfer between chips or systems, offering low latency, high bandwidth, and low power consumption [5] - Thin-film lithium niobate offers high bandwidth but faces challenges due to complex manufacturing processes [5] - On-chip optical networks enable high-speed, low-latency communication within chips, making them ideal for multi-core processing and high-performance computing [5] Domestic Computing Power Development - Domestic computing power is driving growth in the data communication industry, particularly in optical modules, IDCs, and switches [9] - Chinese companies like Accelink and Huagong Tech have shown significant performance improvements in Q3, with the domestic AI computing market rapidly expanding [9] - The optical module market is highly concentrated, with Chinese companies competing on par with international players, especially in high-speed products [9] - IDC construction is accelerating due to policy support and the maturity of domestic computing chips, with third-party IDC companies like Runze Tech benefiting from localization [9] - Switch market demand is rising, with domestic companies like Huawei and H3C releasing new data center switches to meet the needs of intelligent computing networks [23] Key Companies to Watch - Optical communication: Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical, etc [10] - Copper links: Wolong Electric, Jingda Co [10] - Computing equipment: ZTE, Unisplendour, Ruijie Networks, etc [10] - Liquid cooling: Envicool, Shenling Environment, Gaoneng [10] - Edge computing platforms: Meig Smart, Fibocom, Quectel [10] - Satellite communication: China Satcom, China Satellite, etc [10] - Data elements: China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom [10] - Data visualization: Haohan Depth, Hengwei Tech, Zhongxin Sacco [10] Market Performance - The communication sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with blockchain, satellite communication, and mobile internet leading the gains [18] - Companies like Wins and Chunxing Precision saw significant stock price increases due to favorable market trends [19][20] Global AI Investment Trends - Major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet are expected to spend over $200 billion in 2024 on AI-related investments [24] - Meta plans to invest heavily in AI language models, while Microsoft faces challenges in meeting the rapid demand for its cloud and AI products [25][26] Optical Transceiver Market - Coherent optical transceiver shipments are expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR, driven by large AI clusters and hyperscaler demand [27] - Dell'Oro predicts that nearly half of coherent transceivers will be deployed in routers and Ethernet switches in the next five years [27] Robotics and AI Startups - Physical Intelligence, a robotics startup, raised $400 million at a $2.4 billion valuation, with investors including Jeff Bezos and OpenAI [28] Apple's AI Strategy - Apple is collaborating with Foxconn to produce AI servers in Taiwan, aiming to enhance its Apple Intelligence capabilities [29] - Apple is also developing the M4 chip series to upgrade its cloud computing infrastructure for AI tasks [33] Smartphone Market - Global smartphone shipments grew 2% YoY in Q3 2024, with revenue and average selling prices hitting record highs [36] - Apple led in smartphone revenue, capturing 43% of the market, driven by the early launch of the iPhone 16 series [37]

增持（维持） 钢铁 起点而非终点 行情回顾（11.4-11.8）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1643.47 点，上涨 4.91%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.59pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 22 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场继续震荡上行，投资者关注全国人大常委会批准的《国务院关于提 请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议案》的决议影响。本次政策变化体 现了国家债务周期的轮转开始进入第二阶段。我们在之前的深度报告《走向成熟》、《时 代的周期》中大篇幅阐述了国家债务周期轮转的三个阶段，即地方政府债务化、地方政 府债务中央化和国家债务货币化。随着一个国家进入工业化成熟期，国家债务周期即将 进入地方政府债务中央化阶段。在处理过程中，遏制增量为先，化解存量为后，避免出 现 2018 年之前化债过程中堵前门开后门，地方政府债务继续扩张的局面。本次蓝部长 依然强调"预算约束更强，将不新增隐性债务作为"铁的纪律"；监管问责更严，严格 落实地方政府违规举债问责制"，经过两年地方财政监管的加强后，财政从侧重于防风 险向防风险、促发展并重转变，化解存量开始进入议程。本次会议明确指出增加"地方 政府 ...

家居用品 家居 Q3 综述：经营压力放大，以旧换新驱动需求改善 收入&利润：地产&消费压力放大，业绩普遍承压。24Q3 商品住宅销售面 积累计同比-11.8%，商品住宅竣工面积累计同比-29.0%，消费者消费意 愿下降，家居龙头收入普遍同比下滑双位数以上、固定成本摊薄不足：叠 加行业价格竞争加剧、盈利能力下降。家装需求从新房增量时代向存量时 代持续切换，客流粉尘化、分层化，线下门店客流陡降，线上和整装成为 流量必争之地，对传统零售家居造成巨大冲击，行业部分经销商转型步伐 缓慢，行业供给端加速淘汰。截至 2024 年 9 月，家居亏损企业数量占比 达 28.2%、较年初+5.0pct。 内销压力放大，外销稳健增长。24Q3 家居龙头压力进一步放大，软体表 现好于定制，板块下滑普遍超 10%，顾家、志邦、喜临门、慕思收入下滑 分别为 6.9%、10.1%、10.9%、11.2%，顾家表现领先预计主要系外销延 续双位数增长，内销下滑双位数以上；志邦 Q3 力保规模及份额，短期降 价抢占市场份额；慕思&喜临门电商渠道较快增长。其中，欧派、索菲亚 分别下滑 21.2%、21.1%，索菲亚整家战略驱动连带率&客单价提升， ...

增持（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2024 11 08 年 月 日 轻工制造 消费 Q3 综述：市场竞争加剧、品牌策略分化、结构亮点可寻 消费需求整体偏弱，关注细分赛道。24Q3 我国社会消费品零售总额累计 同比+2.7%，其中日用品类、办公用品、家具零售额分别累计同比+4.8%、 +7.0%、+1.4%。文具行业线下终端动销偏弱、线上价格竞争激烈；卫生 巾&口腔护理行业国产二线品牌份额快速提升，产品结构持续优化；镜片 行业竞争加剧，离焦镜均价下行，龙头加速产品推新；宠物海外代工增长 靓丽，国内品牌保持高增，盈利能力优化。 文具：传统文具动销偏弱，办公集采增速回落。24Q3 晨光股份收入同比 +2.8%，其中传统核心收入同比-2%，预计受产品销售结构变化影响，毛 利率、净利率小幅回落；公司积极推动直销&线上渠道发展，晨光科技 24Q3 收入同比+39%，拓展非洲和东南亚市场，零售大店延续扩张，24Q3 九木 收入同比+3%、Q3 新开店 31 家、盈利弱化。办公集采增速阶段性回落， 24Q3 晨光科力普/齐心集团分别实现收入 30.4/34.0 亿元（同比 +7.5%/+ ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 08 年 月 日 乐普医疗（300003.SZ） 业务调整、制剂去库存导致 Q3 短期承压，创新产品延续高增 乐普医疗发布 2024 年三季度报告。2024Q1-Q3，实现营业收入 47.85 亿 元，同比下滑 23.55%；归母净利润 8.03 亿元，同比下滑 40.70%；扣非后归 母净利润 7.34 亿元，同比下滑 42.91%。2024Q3，实现营业收入 14.02 亿 元，同比下滑 28.41%；归母净利润 1.05 亿元，同比下滑 73.12%；扣非后归 母净利润 0.87 亿元，同比下滑 77.19%。 观点：Q3 业绩增速继续放缓，主要系业务结构调整及制剂业务渠道库存清理 等因素影响。心血管植介入业务稳健增长，结构性心脏病业务表现亮眼，外科 麻醉业务恢复增长。制剂端渠道去库存接近尾声，胰岛素进院顺利，药品板块 有望迎来业绩改善。 Q3 业绩增速继续放缓，主要系业务结构调整、制剂业务渠道库存清理等因素 影响。2024Q3 业绩增速继续放缓，主要系公司加快业务结构调整，导致人员 重置和业务再造产生大额支出，同时制剂业务渠道库存清 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2024 11 10 年 月 日 增持（维持） 单击或点击此处输入文字。 农林牧渔 白鸡上游景气延续 本周热点：白鸡上游景气延续。8 月以来，白羽肉鸡上游继续延续景气态 势，本周，肉鸡苗价格 4.17 元/只，较上周上涨 1.2%，同比去年上涨 83.7%； 父母代鸡苗 10 月第二周均价 57.21 元/套，较前一周上涨 14.7%，同比去 年上涨 4.6%。父母代环节，一方面 9 月父母代鸡苗销量呈现减量趋势， 据钢联数据，9 月父母代鸡苗销量 554 万套，同比增长 6.9%，环比减少 10.6%（8 月环比减少 2.5%）；另一方面，父母代销售结构可以窥见下游 对于国外品种的需求较高。单 9 月看，美国品种占比达 50.8%，环比减量 6.5%；新西兰品种占比达 31.4%，环比减量 4.7%；国产品种占比约 17.8%，环比减量 27.5%；1-9 月累计看，美国品种占 56.1%、新西兰品 种占比 25.4%、国内品种占比 18.5%。理论上 2024 年的父母代销量由 2023 年的祖代更新量决定，而反观 2023 年的祖代更新结构，其中美国 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 08 年 月 日 奥浦迈（688293.SH） Q3 培养基高增，税率变动影响短期利润，海外市场增长亮眼 奥浦迈发布 2024 年三季度报告。2024Q1-Q3，实现营业收入 2.16 亿 元，同比增长 25.73%；归母净利润 2724 万元，同比下滑 36.93%；扣非 后归母净利润 1708 万元，同比下滑 46.12%。2024Q3，实现营业收入 7225 万元，同比增长 43.23%；归母净利润 310 万元，同比下滑 41.54%； 扣非后归母净利润 34 万元，同比下滑 83.52%。 观点：Q3 收入端高速增长，税率变更导致利润端阶段性承压，剔除税费 影响后利润端正向改善。培养基延续高增态势，海外市场增长势头强劲。 CDMO 业务逐季改善，亏损有望逐步收窄。海内外客户持续开拓，中试工 艺服务管线高速增长，竞争力进一步增强。 Q3 收入端高速增长，利润端阶段性承压主要系补税影响。行业融资环境 紧缩的背景下，Q3 收入端高速增长，展现了较强的经营韧性。Q3 利润端 阶段性承压，主要系公司被取消高新技术企业资格，自 2024 年开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - New product launches and overseas market expansion drive steady revenue growth, while cost reduction and efficiency improvements boost gross margins [1] - Strong downstream demand for GLP-1 drives high growth in the biopharmaceutical sector, with the life sciences business showing good growth momentum and international business becoming a second growth curve [1] - The company strategically focuses on downstream blockbuster products, with progress in respiratory pathogens, AD blood testing, and microfluidic products, opening long-term growth potential [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 986 million, up 13.42% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 18.16 million, up 123.77% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 337 million, up 12.87% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders declined 57.55% YoY to RMB 2 million [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin improved to 69.97%, up 1.64 percentage points YoY, reflecting cost reduction and efficiency gains [1] Business Segment Performance - Life Sciences: Q3 2024 revenue was approximately RMB 260 million, up 14% YoY, with cell protein business growing over 120% and international business revenue reaching RMB 23 million [1] - Biopharmaceuticals: Q3 2024 revenue was approximately RMB 50 million, up 40% YoY, driven by GLP-1 business [1] - In Vitro Diagnostics: Revenue declined sequentially due to off-season for respiratory pathogen testing and ongoing market promotion for AD testing products [1] Strategic Focus - Respiratory Pathogens: Products for influenza A/B and Mycoplasma pneumoniae have obtained registration certificates, with over 500 hospitals onboarded [1] - AD Blood Testing: Six AD blood testing indicators were approved in April 2024, with equipment expected to complete registration by year-end and 200-300 hospitals targeted for installation [1] - Microfluidics: Completed development and EU registration for a 6-plex upper respiratory infection test, with plans for additional products targeting Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [1] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 1.44 billion, RMB 1.79 billion, and RMB 2.25 billion, with YoY growth of 12.0%, 24.6%, and 25.2% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 31 million, RMB 152 million, and RMB 273 million, with YoY growth of 144.1%, 385.4%, and 79.6% respectively [1] - PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 308X, 63X, and 35X [1]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 08 年 月 日 华大智造（688114.SH） Q3 业绩短期承压，测序仪装机稳健增长，海外市场布局加速 华大智造发布 2024 年三季度报告。2024Q1-Q3，实现营业收入 18.69 亿 元，同比下滑 15.19%；归母净利润-4.63 亿元，同比下滑 134.28%；扣非后 归母净利润-4.97 亿元，同比下滑 104.56%。2024Q3，实现营业收入 6.60 亿 元，同比下滑 13.22%；归母净利润-1.65 亿元，同比下滑 65.54%；扣非后归 母净利润-1.73 亿元，同比下滑 60.82%。 观点：Q3 收入端下滑主要系宏观环境等多因素影响，利润端表现不及收入端 主要系毛利率波动及期间费用率抬升。测序仪装机稳健增长，以旧换新等利好 因素有望驱动需求释放。海外市场加速拓展，本土化经营持续推进，2025 年 有望迎来恢复性增长。 Q3 收入端下滑主要系宏观环境、竞争加剧等多因素影响，毛利率波动及期间 费用率抬升导致利润端表现不及收入端。2024Q3 收入端下滑主要系宏观环 境、地缘政治、竞争加剧等多因素影响，毛利率波动 ...