Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Coking Coal [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see a marginal recovery in performance in Q4 2025, with October prices for coking coal showing an increase compared to September [1] - The company possesses significant coal resources, with a total coal reserve of 6.53 billion tons and additional resources acquired recently [2] - Financial projections indicate a decline in net profit for 2025, but a gradual recovery is anticipated in subsequent years [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.84%, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, down 52.24% year-on-year [1] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 41.473 billion yuan, 42.067 billion yuan, and 42.849 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2 billion yuan, 2.512 billion yuan, and 2.843 billion yuan [4] Resource Advantages - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 17 mines, with 16 currently producing and one under construction, totaling coal reserves of 6.53 billion tons [2] - Recently acquired exploration rights in Shanxi Province add 0.953 billion tons of coal reserves and additional aluminum and gallium resources [2] Market Conditions - Coking coal prices have shown an upward trend, with long-term contract prices for Shanxi coking coal reaching 1,470 yuan per ton in October, up from 1,400 yuan in September [1] - Supply disruptions in the coal market are noted, particularly due to environmental regulations affecting production in certain regions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 18.68 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14% to 2.44 billion yuan [1][5]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, reflecting ongoing expansion efforts at the Indonesian production base [1][4]. - The company is diversifying its customer base, with significant orders from new clients like On and New Balance, while facing some order adjustments from existing clients [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 5% for the full year 2025, driven by new customer orders despite cautious behavior from existing clients [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.02 billion yuan, which was flat year-on-year, and a net profit of 760 million yuan, down 21% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 22.2%, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, but an improvement of 1.1 percentage points from Q2 2025 [2]. - The company’s cash flow remains strong, with a net operating cash flow of 3.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, approximately 1.5 times the net profit for the same period [5]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a total capacity of 11.7 million pairs and a total output of 11.2 million pairs in the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7% and 6%, respectively [4]. - The new factories are progressing well, with three out of four newly established factories achieving profitability as per the report [4]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.25 billion yuan, 3.91 billion yuan, and 4.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 20 times for 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in quarterly profitability, with a net profit of 2.49 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 149.46% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 152.43% [2]. - The company has successfully turned around from a net loss of 5.79 billion yuan in the same period last year to a net profit of 3.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][3]. - The strategic focus on high-end products has led to an increase in the sales of premium steel varieties, with hot-rolled high-end products increasing by 97.6% [3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 27.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68% [1]. - The average sales gross margin for the quarters from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025 is projected to improve, with figures of 5.18%, 3.06%, 3.42%, and 5.27% respectively [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is expected to reach 675 million yuan, with a significant growth rate of 1,959.3% year-on-year [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has exited low-end trading businesses and is focusing on developing high-value-added products, establishing itself as a global leader in premium silicon steel and high-quality thick plates [3]. - The company’s major shareholder, New Steel Group, has shown confidence by increasing its stake in the company, acquiring approximately 40.32 million shares, which is about 1.27% of the total share capital [3]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the company's net profit will continue to improve, with estimates of 680 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [3]. - The valuation of the company is expected to have significant recovery potential, with a projected market value of around 17.2 billion yuan at the mid-point of the valuation range [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a third-quarter revenue of 40.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.075 billion yuan, down 20.34% year-on-year but up 79.08% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The coal business demonstrated resilience, while the electricity business showed significant growth in sales volume [2][3] - The company is expected to see a recovery in coal prices and growth in its electricity business, projecting net profits of 16 billion yuan, 18 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.6X, 12.1X, and 11.3X [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 13.037 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and sold 18.920 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [3] - The average coal price for the first three quarters was 540 yuan per ton, down 14.2% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 376 yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [3] - The total electricity generation for the first three quarters was 31.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, but the third quarter saw a significant increase in generation and sales volume, with 138 billion kWh generated and 130 billion kWh sold, up 52.6% and 53.1% respectively [3] Future Projections - The company aims to enhance its sustainable development capabilities by increasing coal production capacity, with a recent approval for an additional 2 million tons at the Yuandatan coal mine [3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 144.956 billion yuan, 152.278 billion yuan, and 157.445 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -21.3%, 5.1%, and 3.4% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a 16% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 14.65 billion yuan, despite a 7.5% decline in net profit [1] - The company is focusing on channel and product optimization to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market conditions [2] - The company is expected to see a revenue decline of 7.2% to 52.689 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 18.2% to 1.594 billion yuan for the year 2025 [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the revenue breakdown shows a 1.4% increase in mid-range products, a 12.1% increase in jewelry, a 25.9% increase in gold trading, and a 44.4% decrease in other sales [1] - The gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 7% in Q3 2025, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 1.5% [1] - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 48 billion yuan, a decline of 8.7% year-on-year [1] Store Expansion and Product Strategy - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had 5,625 stores, with a net increase of 75 stores in Q3 [1] - The company is actively adjusting store images and focusing on thematic stores such as "Treasure Gold" and "Fengxiang Celebration" [1] - New product launches are aligned with national trends, including collaborations with top IPs to strengthen product offerings [1] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - As of Q3 2025, the company’s inventory was 8.05 billion yuan, a 22.9% increase year-on-year, while accounts receivable rose by 35% to 3.97 billion yuan [2] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.37 billion yuan, a 64% decline year-on-year, but improvements in accounts receivable turnover are expected by year-end [2] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profit for 2025 is 1.594 billion yuan, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 at 1.738 billion yuan and 1.887 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The report indicates a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 17 times for 2025 based on the current price [2]

调整释压，静待修复 25Q3 报表开始大幅释压，合同负债环比稳定。2025Q1-3 公司实现营收 33.3 亿元、同比-18.5%，归母净利润 4.0 亿元、同比-28.0%。2025Q3 营 收 8.5 亿元、同比-47.6%，归母净利润 0.8 亿元，同比-68.5%。2025Q3 营收+△合同负债同比-48.1%，与收入降幅基本一致。2025Q3 末合同负 债为 12.1 亿元，同比下降 5.4 亿元、环比 2025Q2 微降 0.7 亿元。 产品结构拖累毛利率，费率和税率有所上行。2025Q3 毛利率为 61.4%、 同比-5.4pct，预计主要系产品结构影响；2025Q3 销售费用率延续优化趋 势，但管理费用率及税率提升，2025Q3 销售费用率/管理费用率/税金及 附加率同比-1.9/+3.4/+1.4pct；综合影响下净利率同比-6.2pct 至 9.4%。 各价格带整体承压，大众价格带单品相对稍好。分档次看，2025Q3 高档 酒（100 元以上）/中低档酒收入分别为 4.2/4.2 亿元，收入同比-47%/- 49%；2025Q1-3 收入累计同比-15%/-22%。预计 100-200 元 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 30 年 月 日 盛德鑫泰（300881.SZ） 季度业绩环比大增，产品结构有望进一步改善 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季度报告。公司前三季度营业收入 23.25 亿元，同比 增长 19.01%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 1.52 亿元，同比减少 21.38%；基本 每股收益 1.3786 元，同比减少 21.67%。 季度业绩环比大增，净利率显著改善。公司 2025Q3 实现归母净利 0.67 亿元，同 比下降 3.74%，环比增加 90.82%，实现扣非归母净利 0.68 亿元，同比下降 2.41%， 环比增加 93.98%；公司 2024Q4~2025Q3 销售毛利率分别为 13.86%、17.39%、 14.99%、14.5%，销售净利率分别为 4.94%、7.89%、4.07%、8.39%，受益于 产品结构进一步优化及下游火电投资高增，三季度净利率创出年内新高。 拟建设先进高镍无缝管制造建设项目，产品结构有望持续高端化。根据公司公告， 公司 4 万吨不锈钢产线投产后整体计划产能达到 16 万吨，超超临界锅炉用小口径 不锈无缝钢 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in Q3 2025, with revenue of 37.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.25%, and a net profit of 1.941 billion yuan, up 37.66% year-on-year [1] - The growth is driven by innovations in AI hardware, particularly in cooling, battery, and fast-charging technologies, with significant potential in robotics, AI glasses, foldable screens, and servers [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 375.90 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.41 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 16.61% and a net margin of 5.23% [1] - In Q3 2025 alone, revenue reached 139.65 billion yuan, marking a 12.91% year-on-year increase and a 15.12% quarter-on-quarter increase, while net profit was 10.12 billion yuan, up 39.28% year-on-year and 177.37% quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segments - The company is expanding its AI terminal hardware offerings, focusing on battery, thermal management, and fast-charging solutions, which are expected to drive new growth [9] - The automotive business is transitioning from Tier 2 to Tier 1, with a recent acquisition aimed at enhancing its position in the electric vehicle market [3] - The company is also making strides in humanoid robots, AI glasses, foldable devices, and server power supply solutions, positioning itself well in these emerging markets [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 510 billion yuan, 610 billion yuan, and 728 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 19.6%, and 19.2% [9] - Net profit is projected to reach 2.4 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 37.3%, 45.5%, and 26.8% [9]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 10 30 年 月 日 江河集团（601886.SH） Q3 业绩稳健符合预期，高股息"类债"价值凸显 Q3 业绩稳健符合预期，后续海外收入利润有望提速。公司 2025Q1-3 实 现营收 145.5 亿元，同降 5.6%；扣非后归母净利润 3.8 亿元，同增 19%， 经营性业绩增速保持较快；归母净利润 4.6 亿元，同增 5.7%。三季报业 绩整体增长稳健符合我们预期。分季度看，公司 Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现营收 42.0/51.4/52.2 亿元，同比+2.9%/-12.0%/-5.2%，Q3 降幅环比收窄；分 别实现扣非后归母净利润1.79/1.55/0.49亿元，同比+1.5%/+57%/+5%； 分别实现归母净利润 1.44/1.84/1.30 亿元，同比-21%/+30%/+17%，Q3 归母净利润增速高于扣非后归母净利润增速，主因非经中公允价值变动收 益增多（预计为所持港股股价上涨带动）。公司 2025Q1-3 中标订单 222 亿 元，同增 6.1%，订单持续稳步增长，驱动后续公司营收业绩稳步释放。 公司当前重点推动海外业务扩 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 10 30 年 月 日 宏观点评 12 月还会降息吗？——美联储 10 月议息会议点评 事件：北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 10 月议息决议。 核心结论：美联储如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月不一定会降息，整体基调偏鹰。会议过后，市场降息预期明显 下调，利率期货隐含的 12 月降息概率已从超过 90%降至不足 70%。 本质看，最新降息预期的修正，体现的是市场与美联储的分歧、以及美 联储内部的分歧。往后看，继续提示：美联储货币政策立场正从紧缩逐 步转向中性，从实际利率角度分析，可能再降息 3-4 次就会结束，不 过受数据延迟、主席换届等因素影响，实际空间和节奏存较大不确定 性。由于此前市场对 12 月降息的计价十分充分，若后续坐实不降息， 美股和黄金短期仍有调整压力；不过市场对中长期降息空间的预期相 对理性，因此等预期调整到位后，后续影响预计有限。 1、美联储如期降息 25bp，宣布结束缩表，鲍威尔称 12 月未必降息。 >会议决议：美联储下调联邦基金利率 25bp 至 3.75-4.0 ...