证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 煤炭开采 BTU 续创新高，海外"三小煤"需重点关注 行情回顾（2026.1.19~2026.1.23）： 中信煤炭指数 3743.77 点，上涨 1.44%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.06pct，位列中信 板块涨跌幅榜第 21 位。 本周，美股 BTU 一度涨至 39.95 美元/股，续创 2019 年以来新高。在 25 年 12 月初我们发布的《美国：AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转，黑金重燃》中指出"重 视 AI 重塑美国煤炭市场，底部反转的投资机会"。 印尼煤炭"供给侧"或正在实施中。据新华财经雅加达 1 月 23 日报道，印度尼西 亚总统普拉博沃·苏比延多 22 日在瑞士达沃斯出席世界经济论坛年会期间表示， 印尼政府已关闭全国约 1000 处非法矿场，并将继续严厉打击自然资源和环境领域 的违法行为，坚决维护法治。据了解，非法采矿活动往往无视安全和环保标准，易 引发洪水和山体滑坡等自然灾害。印尼国家灾害管理署数据显示，去年底苏门答 腊岛发生的洪水和山体滑坡已造成约 1200 人死亡，还有大量居民被迫撤离并安置 在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 固定收益定期 银行配债需求为何增加 本周债市继续修复，利率多数有所下行。本周债市震荡修复，10 年和 30 年国 债利率震荡下行 1.3bps 和 1.6bps 至 1.83%和 2.29%，3 年和 5 年二级资本 债利率分别下行 2.6bps 和 2.2bps 至 1.9%和 2.15%。存单利率同样下行，1 年 AAA 存单利率下行 3.00bps 至 1.595%，突破 1.6%关口。 债市修复过程中，配置性机构扮演了主要的买入角色，银行持续买入支撑了债 市企稳回升。当前债市较高的性价比能够解释银行的买入意愿。当前长债利率 综合收益高于贷款，例如按揭贷款平均利率在 3.0%附近，即使仅考虑 25%税 收，综合收益也已经低于当前 2.3%左右的 30 年国债。同时，银行负债成本 持续下降，随着存款利率下调，配置长债能够通过票息覆盖负债成本，而不再 依赖于可能的资本利得。这与 2024 年下半年和 2025 年初不同。 相关研究 但此前市场更多担忧的是银行的配置能力，毕竟年初是信贷集中投放时期，并 且政府债券也可能 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [3][8]. Summary by Sections Energy Price Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices also saw significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units (+4.04%) and U.S. HH natural gas futures at $5.35 per million British thermal units (+72.18%) [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies that are performing well, such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies involved in smart mining like Keda Control and those in recovery like China Qinfa [3][8]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Coal Market Dynamics - The report notes slight adjustments in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $111.50 per ton, down $0.05 (-0.04%), while European ARA coal prices increased to $98.50 per ton, up $1.85 (+1.91%) [1][40]. - The overall coal market is expected to benefit from the rising natural gas prices, potentially leading to increased coal consumption in power generation [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 房地产开发 C-REITs 周报——四季报业绩分化，消费 REITs 保持较高稳定性 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 2.17%。截至 1.23，本周（1.16-1.23， 下同）中证 REITs(收盘)指数上涨 2.09%，收于 806.7 点；中证 REITs 全 收益指数上涨 2.17%，收于 1047.5 点。本周沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期 国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速公路(申万)指数分别下跌 0.62%/下跌 0.36%/上涨 0.18%/上涨 5.21%/上涨 1.34%/上涨 0.87%。 本年中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 3.73%截至 。1.23，本年中证 REITs(收盘)指数+3.61%，中证 REITs 全收益指数+3.73%。本年沪深 300/ 恒生/中债十年期国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速公路(申万)指 数分别+1.57%/+4.37%/+0.47%/+6.66%/+8.56%/-1.22%。 C-REITs 二级市场表现 本周 C ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puyang Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Materials, while recommending "Hold" for Wei Xing New Materials [7]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector saw a significant increase of 7.50% from January 19 to January 23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 8.17% [12]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old urban communities, complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces [1]. - The report highlights a decrease in local government bond issuance, indicating a potential easing of fiscal pressure and a chance for corporate balance sheet recovery, which may accelerate municipal engineering projects [1]. - The glass industry is approaching a supply-demand balance due to accelerated cold repairs, while photovoltaic glass companies are reducing production to alleviate supply conflicts [1]. - The cement industry is experiencing a demand bottoming process, with increased off-peak production efforts and a focus on regional demand driven by large infrastructure projects [1]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, the national cement price index was 345.33 CNY/ton, down 0.5% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.3795 million tons, a decrease of 10.04% [18]. - The cement clinker kiln line capacity utilization rate was 42.42%, up 1.72 percentage points from the previous week [18]. - The market is facing a complex situation influenced by weather, funding constraints, and environmental regulations, leading to a projected weakening of demand as the Spring Festival approaches [18]. Glass Industry Tracking - The national average price of float glass as of January 22, 2026, was 1138.82 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% week-on-week [35]. - The inventory of raw glass in 13 provinces was 49.77 million weight boxes, showing a decrease of 90,000 weight boxes from the previous week [35]. - The market is expected to maintain a stable price trend in the short term, with potential supply-side changes to monitor [35]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving remained stable, with demand continuing to show weakness and inventory levels remaining high [6]. - The average production cost for carbon fiber was 112,500 CNY/ton, with a negative profit margin indicating insufficient profit space in the industry [6]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is showing signs of weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices for aluminum alloy, styrene, and natural gas increasing week-on-week [6]. - The report recommends continued attention to companies benefiting from second-hand housing and renovation policies, highlighting their potential for market share growth [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electricity sector is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Insights - The electricity sector's holdings by active funds have slightly decreased, while index funds have seen a slight increase. The overall holding ratio for both types of funds is at a low point, indicating potential for future increases [11][4] - Southern Power Grid plans to invest CNY 180 billion in fixed assets for 2026, marking a historical high for five consecutive years, with an average annual growth rate of 9.5% over the past five years [3][11] - The investment will focus on three areas: new power system construction, strategic emerging industry development, and enhancement of quality power supply services [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16 points, up 0.84%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4702.5 points, down 0.62%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3177.58 points, up 2.24%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.86 percentage points [65][66] - Active funds' holdings in the power and utilities sector decreased to 0.61% by the end of Q4 2025, down 1.31 percentage points year-on-year and 0.03 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [11][12] 2. Fund Allocation Changes - The top five stocks with increased allocation by active funds in Q4 2025 include: - Jiantou Energy (+1.00 percentage points) - Zhongmin Energy (+0.35 percentage points) - Jingneng Power (+0.29 percentage points) - Inner Mongolia Huadian (+0.25 percentage points) - Huaneng International (+0.20 percentage points) [12] - The top five stocks with decreased allocation include: - Xinnatural Gas (-0.46 percentage points) - Datang New Energy (-0.39 percentage points) - Huadian International Power (-0.35 percentage points) - Funiu Co. (-0.33 percentage points) - Huadian International (-0.28 percentage points) [12] 3. Investment Plans - Southern Power Grid's investment plan for 2026 includes CNY 180 billion, focusing on new power systems and supporting the integration of 40 million kilowatts of new energy installations [3][11] - The investment will also support the construction of cross-regional projects, such as the Yangjiang Sanshan Island offshore wind power project and the Cangyu DC project, which aims to optimize energy allocation [15][11] 4. Market Trends - The coal price for thermal power has decreased to CNY 691 per ton [16] - The carbon market saw a price increase of 3.18% week-on-week, with a trading volume of 2.4252 million tons and a total transaction value of CNY 176 million [60][61] 5. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Huaneng International (Buy) - Huadian International (Buy) - Guodian Power (Buy) - Datang Power (Buy) - Inner Mongolia Huadian (Buy) - Shaanxi Energy (Buy) [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2][3] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3][4] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor market is entering the Spring Festival sales peak, with Moutai expected to lead improvements. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Beer remains in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to cater to consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving expansion in both domestic and international markets [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies including SF Holding, Cao Cao Travel, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies' investments, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and the ongoing recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on companies like Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a historical high in passenger volume during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly View and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts a record 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic and international routes showing significant growth [11][12]. - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with daily rates reaching $107,937 on the Middle East route [13]. - Dry bulk freight rates are recovering, with the BDI index reaching 1,762 points [14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for LNG transport to enter a different economic cycle, highlighting companies like CIMC Anrui [16]. Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and domestic market consolidation amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - In December 2025, the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among leading express companies, with Zhongtong and YTO showing growth while SF Express faced a decline due to strategic business adjustments [20].

证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 通信 光模块复盘与思考 回顾过去两年光通信行情起落，从预期角度看，行情主要由供需周期、筹码 结构、业绩节奏等共同决定，行至当下，当前的行情更多由筹码决定，所谓 的业绩不确定性只需待时间消化。 光模块的股价波动，本质上是三种周期力量共振与博弈的结果： 这三种周期并非孤立，而是相互影响。当前时点，我们认为行情的主导力量 正为"筹码周期"，市场正在消化前期过高的预期与过热的交易结构，并为 下一个"业绩周期"的验证做准备。 【供需周期：需求持续旺盛，龙头交付能力更强】 从需求端来看，光模块需求持续旺盛：Google、Microsoft、Meta、Amazon 四大北美云厂商的资本开支指引不断上修，2025 年度合计 Capex 已跃升至超 3800 亿美元，英伟达算力平台迭代加速，持续印证需求的刚性。可以明确的 是，市场对光通信的高景气已无太多质疑，光模块的旺盛需求已充分反映在 当前的股价之中。新需求锚点需等今年 3-4 月，下游客户（北美云厂商、芯片 巨头、全球主流电信运营商）完成年度规划，招标意向陆续释放才能明确。 从供给端来看， ...