证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 06 年 月 日 华发股份（600325.SH） 定增预计募集不超过 30 亿元，大股东全额认购展现强力支持 华发股份发布 2026 年度定增预案，预计募集资金不超过 30 亿元，定增 价格 4.21 元/股。华发股份发布定增预案，拟发行股份数量合计不超过 7.13 亿股，且不超过发行前公司总股本的 30%。预计募集资金总额不超 过 30 亿元人民币。发行对象为公司控股股东珠海华发集团有限公司（华 发集团），其将以现金方式全额认购。本次定增价格为定价基准日前 20 个 交易日公司 A 股股票交易均价，即元/股（4.212 月 3 日公告日当日收盘 价为 4.02 元）。募集资金用途方面，扣除发行费用后将全部用于珠海、绍 兴、成都、杭州等地的 9 个房地产开发项目（文末附用途明细表）。 如成功实施将改善公司资产负债结构，同时大股东全额认购彰显信心，有 望维护夯实融资渠道。此前，公司于 2023 年成功实施定增，该次定增实 际募集资金 51.24 亿元，华发集团认购 14.6 亿元。本次定增若成功实施， 将改善公司资产负债结构，同时募投项目聚焦 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 05 年 月 日 保险：资负共振，寿险景气度提升新周期确立。1）资产端：长端利率企 稳、资本市场稳中向好，保险投资端全面向好，具备业绩弹性，且头部公 司利差损风险大幅缓解释放估值修复空间。2）负债端：开门红表现为全 年新单奠定良好基调，有望提振 2026 年负债端整体表现，寿险行业长期 持续受益于银行存款搬家趋势，除银行存款外，保险也是具备刚性兑付特 征的金融产品。多元化的理财储蓄、医疗、养老等保险需求将推动行业持 续扩容。随着头部险企产品结构转向分红险，投资环境的向好进一步提升 保险产品的竞争力，实现资产负债两端正向循环。 券商：慢牛环境下，基本面与估值严重错配，配置性价比高。2025 年全年 A 股市场股基日均成交额 2.08 万亿，同比增长 70.36%；IPO 审核通过家 数同比大增 109.43%，募资金额增长 208.01%；全年上证指数上涨 18.41%、沪深 300 指数上涨 17.66%、创业板指上涨 49.57%。已发布业 绩预告的上市券商合计归母净利润同比增长约 60%左右，头部券商稳健 增长，部分中小券商业绩弹性凸显 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 05 年 月 日 非银板块整体业绩与估值均具备强 beta 属性，全面看好非银板块。 保险：资负共振，寿险景气度提升新周期确立。1）资产端：长端利率企 稳、资本市场稳中向好，保险投资端全面向好，具备业绩弹性，且头部公 司利差损风险大幅缓解释放估值修复空间。2）负债端：开门红表现为全 年新单奠定良好基调，有望提振 2026 年负债端整体表现，寿险行业长期 持续受益于银行存款搬家趋势，除银行存款外，保险也是具备刚性兑付特 征的金融产品。多元化的理财储蓄、医疗、养老等保险需求将推动行业持 续扩容。随着头部险企产品结构转向分红险，投资环境的向好进一步提升 保险产品的竞争力，实现资产负债两端正向循环。 券商：慢牛环境下，基本面与估值严重错配，配置性价比高。2025 年全年 A 股市场股基日均成交额 2.08 万亿，同比增长 70.36%；IPO 审核通过家 数同比大增 109.43%，募资金额增长 208.01%；全年上证指数上涨 18.41%、沪深 300 指数上涨 17.66%、创业板指上涨 49.57%。已发布业 绩预告的上市券商合计归母净利润 ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 05 年 月 日 南山铝业（600219.SH） 全产业链布局行稳致远，海外资源打开盈利天花板 公司从传统的" 资源驱动型"向" 技术创新与全产业链协同驱动型"的华 丽转身。1993 年公司正式设立，于 1999 年 12 月在上海证券交易所成功 上市。公司先后投入巨资建设热电厂、氧化铝厂、电解铝厂及精深加工车 间。另外，公司积极响应国家" 双碳"目标，加快海外资源布局，投资建 设印尼宾坦铝业工业园，利用印尼丰富的铝土矿资源和能源优势，建设百 万吨级氧化铝生产基地及百万吨级电解铝，实现了原材料的海外保供和成 本进一步下移。同时，公司持续优化产品结构，聚焦 汽车板、航空板、 罐料"等核心高毛利产品，并积极推进机器人领域拓展，成为全球铝加工 行业的头部企业。另外，南山铝业国际分拆港股上市，提升国际影响力。 出海先行者：复刻产业链优势，重塑成本护城河。南山铝业印尼项目位于 印度尼西亚宾坦岛东南部廖内群岛卡朗巴唐经济特区。印尼宾坦工业园项 目占地面积约 4578.6 公顷，已建设年产 400 万吨氧化铝厂、规划年产 100 万吨电解铝厂、配套年 ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 05 年 月 日 南山铝业（600219.SH） 全产业链布局行稳致远，海外资源打开盈利天花板 公司从传统的" 资源驱动型"向" 技术创新与全产业链协同驱动型"的华 丽转身。1993 年公司正式设立，于 1999 年 12 月在上海证券交易所成功 上市。公司先后投入巨资建设热电厂、氧化铝厂、电解铝厂及精深加工车 间。另外，公司积极响应国家" 双碳"目标，加快海外资源布局，投资建 设印尼宾坦铝业工业园，利用印尼丰富的铝土矿资源和能源优势，建设百 万吨级氧化铝生产基地及百万吨级电解铝，实现了原材料的海外保供和成 本进一步下移。同时，公司持续优化产品结构，聚焦 汽车板、航空板、 罐料"等核心高毛利产品，并积极推进机器人领域拓展，成为全球铝加工 行业的头部企业。另外，南山铝业国际分拆港股上市，提升国际影响力。 出海先行者：复刻产业链优势，重塑成本护城河。南山铝业印尼项目位于 印度尼西亚宾坦岛东南部廖内群岛卡朗巴唐经济特区。印尼宾坦工业园项 目占地面积约 4578.6 公顷，已建设年产 400 万吨氧化铝厂、规划年产 100 万吨电解铝厂、配套年 ...

据还是居民人均消费支出数据，都显示北京、天津等一线城市消费增长承压。 2025 年全国各省市中，只有北京社零增长为负，当年同比-2.9%，天津也只有 0.3%的正增长。而人均消费支出中，北京同样只有 1.85%，为全国最低。而 部分中西部省份消费增长亮眼，社零增速中，陕西（6.0%）、河南（5.6%）、 河北（5.6%）增速居前三位。人均消费支出中，西藏（8.00%）、新疆（6.05%）、 山西（5.57%）等居前三位。显示中西部省份消费能力受影响较小。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 05 年 月 日 固定收益点评 2025 年各地成绩单——经济、财政与债务盘点 随着各地 2025 年数据公布，各地财经现状有了更为清晰的图景。而随着我国 经济体量的增长，区域经济状况显得更为重要，经济和市场分析需要落地到更 为具体的区域。我们尝试从经济、财政和债务等多个角度对 2025 年区域状况 进行刻画。各地呈现出较为显著的特点。 特点一：区域经济增长分化明显，重点化债地区低于其他区域。2025 年各地 经济增速分化明显。虽然广东依然是经济大省，但 2025 年增速较低，只有 3 ...

Core Insights - Fuling Power (600452.SH) is positioned as the only listed platform for energy-saving distribution networks under State Grid, with a solid state-owned background and experienced management team, enabling strategic transformation [4] - The company is optimizing its dual business layout, benefiting from regional load expansion and electricity reform, leading to increased volume and price in grid operations [4] - The State Grid plans to invest over 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which will support Fuling Power's development in "main, distribution, and micro" networks, creating new growth trajectories [4] - Revenue projections for Fuling Power are 3.195 billion, 3.633 billion, and 4.031 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 475 million, 593 million, and 712 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 2.5%, 13.7%, and 11.0% respectively [4] Company Summaries Fuling Power (600452.SH) - The company is leveraging its unique position within the State Grid to enhance its energy-saving distribution network business, which is expected to see significant growth due to favorable policies and market conditions [4] - The financial health of Fuling Power is strong, with healthy debt levels and ample cash reserves, which will support future capital expenditures and cash dividends [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.31, 0.39, and 0.46 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 38.2, 30.6, and 25.5 times respectively, suggesting that the current valuation does not fully reflect the company's business potential [4] Hohhot Information (688615.SH) - Hohhot Information is a leader in intelligent text recognition, benefiting from AI and big data technologies to drive growth in both B2B and B2C segments [3] - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 1.83 billion, 2.30 billion, and 2.85 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 25%, and 24% respectively [3] - Projected net profits for the same period are 487 million, 610 million, and 755 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.5%, 25.4%, and 23.8% [3] Nasda (002180.SZ) - Nasda is undergoing a significant asset divestiture that is expected to temporarily disrupt its performance, with projected net losses of 600 million to 900 million yuan for 2025 [7] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is expected to improve significantly post-divestiture, enhancing its financial structure [7] - Despite the short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive, with a maintained "buy" rating based on anticipated recovery and growth in subsequent years [8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a leader in intelligent text recognition, leveraging AI and big data technologies to drive growth in both B2B and B2C segments. Its main products include three core applications for consumers and a range of services for enterprise clients [1][13] - The global OCR market is expected to reach USD 51.92 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.24% from 2026 to 2032, driven by the maturation of AI technology and the automation of 80% of enterprise documents [2] - The company has a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, with the controlling shareholder holding 24% of the shares and the top ten shareholders owning approximately 61% [1][21] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leader in intelligent text recognition, providing digital and intelligent products and services to global consumers and diverse B2B clients. Its C-end business primarily consists of three core applications: Scanning King, Business Card King, and Qixinbao, while its B-end services focus on intelligent text recognition and commercial big data [1][13] Market Potential - The domestic commercial big data service market is projected to exceed RMB 60 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.76%. The market is characterized by high technical and qualification barriers, leading to a relatively concentrated competitive landscape [2] Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong user base and high brand recognition in the C-end market, with over 180 million monthly active users across its core applications as of 2025H1. The B-end business has been developed over nearly a decade, providing targeted solutions that effectively help clients reduce costs and improve efficiency [3][24] - The synergy between B and C-end businesses enhances research and development efficiency and reduces marketing costs for B-end services [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of RMB 1.83 billion, RMB 2.30 billion, and RMB 2.85 billion in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.5%, 25.4%, and 23.8% [4][5] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 487 million, RMB 610 million, and RMB 755 million for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 21.5%, 25.4%, and 23.8% [4][5] Business Model - The C-end business primarily operates on a subscription model, providing stable cash flow, while the B-end generates revenue through technical service fees, including basic data services, standardized services, and scenario-based solutions [19][20]

涪陵电力（600452.SH） 背靠国网综能， "配、微、储"望协同打造新增长极 国网控股背书，双主业布局持续优化。涪陵电力深耕电力行业多年，是国网旗下唯 一配网节能上市平台。公司前身源自涪陵国资委川东电力集团，依托多轮国资整 合，于 2020 年深化再融资、收购国家电网下属多省配电网节能资产，逐步建成区 域电网运营与配网节能业务并举、全国化拓展的经营格局。公司股权结构高度清 晰，国资主导地位稳固，核心高管均具国网系统任职经验，全面赋能公司战略转 型。业务涵盖区域电网运营与配网节能两大领域，主业增长韧性突出，高毛利配电 网业务增厚利润。 区域负荷扩张叠加电改红利，电网业务量价双升。作为重庆涪陵区的核心供电主 体，涪陵电力紧抓区域工业经济向好与电改红利，电网运营板块保持高质量扩张。 2024 年，涪陵全区用电量同比增长 4.67%，工业用电量同比增长 2.96%。公司外 购电量及售电量不断走高，2024 年售电量达 34.64 亿千瓦时，同比提升 7.71%； 电价改革背景下，2024 年单位售电均价升至 0.644 元/千瓦时，购销价差稳步提升 至 0.227 元/千瓦时，电网板块营业收入同比增长 6.34% ...