证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 11 年 月 日 宏观点评 存款"流失"的变与不变—央行四季度货币政策报告 6 大信号 事件：2 月 10 日，央行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报 告》（后文简称《报告》）。 核心结论：本次报告的定调基本延续此前 Q3 报告、Q4 货政例会、1.15 国新办发布会等的表述，包括对国内经济延续乐观，继续"实施好适度 宽松的货币政策"、"着力扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 等。但相较 Q3 报告，也有不少新变化，重点关注两方面，一是政策定 调上新增"把促进经济稳定增长作为货币政策的重要考量"，指向未来 基本面走弱仍是触发货币宽松的重要变量；二是社会融资成本方面， 从上季度的"推动成本下降"变为"促进成本低位运行"，预示央行在 降息操作上会更加谨慎，应较难看到快速的、大幅的、持续的降息操 作。本次报告的专栏信息量也较大，一是专栏 3 讨论了居民存款"流 失"对流动性的影响，明确指出居民存款流向资管产品等，确实会导致 "银行负债端结构变化"，但并不会使得"整个金融体系和实体经济的 流动性状况也会随之发生类似较大的变化"；二是 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank maintains an optimistic view on the domestic economy, expecting stable growth conditions for 2026, supported by solid foundations, new growth drivers, and strong policy support[2] - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing" and the importance of promoting stable economic growth as a key consideration[7] - The social financing cost outlook has shifted from "promoting cost reduction" to "promoting low-cost operation," indicating a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts[8] Group 2: Global Economic Concerns - The central bank has alleviated concerns about the global economy, citing short-term resilience in growth, but notes a divergence in performance among major economies[3] - Risks highlighted include persistent inflation, cooling labor markets, and increasing global trade uncertainties[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance[4] Group 3: Inflation and Price Trends - Global inflation remains sticky, with ongoing monitoring of the de-inflation process, particularly in the U.S., U.K., and Japan[6] - Domestic inflation shows positive changes, with the CPI rising to its highest level since March 2023 by the end of 2025, supported by improved supply-demand matching[6] - The central bank prioritizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key aspect of monetary policy[6] Group 4: Banking Sector Dynamics - The report discusses the "loss" of bank deposits, indicating that while asset reallocation affects bank liabilities, it does not significantly alter overall liquidity in the financial system[9] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in December 2025 was 3.15%, down 0.09 percentage points from September, with corporate loans at 3.1% and personal housing loans stable at 3.06%[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The fresh snack concept is leading a new round of channel transformation opportunities, with companies like Jinli Men and Baipin Hao emerging as key players in the fresh snack market [1][26] - Jinli Men is positioned as a "small Sam's Club" in lower-tier markets, focusing on fresh snacks and leveraging a comprehensive advantage of "short shelf life, fresh production, and consumer proximity" [1][10] - Baipin Hao is reshaping its product offerings and store formats to align with the fresh snack trend, expanding its range to include nuts, baked goods, and beverages [26][32] Summary by Sections Jinli Men: Fresh Snack Leader - Jinli Men has over 20 stores, primarily in Changsha, with a focus on high foot traffic locations [1][10] - The store offers approximately 150-200 SKUs, with snacks making up 38%, baked goods 25%, and beverages 11% [1][17] - The pricing strategy is competitive, with products priced at 8-20 RMB per item, generally offering 10-30% discounts compared to competitors like Sam's Club [2][24] Baipin Hao: New Product Line and Store Format - Baipin Hao is evolving its store format to include a wider range of products, including fresh snacks and beverages, while maintaining a focus on quality suppliers [26][32] - The store design has shifted to a natural aesthetic, enhancing the shopping experience [28][33] - Pricing for Baipin Hao is comparable to Jinli Men, with packaged snacks priced between 9.9-19.9 RMB [32][34] Industry Dynamics - The fresh snack market is experiencing a resurgence, driven by consumer demand for quality and convenience [35][36] - Jinli Men and similar businesses are capitalizing on this trend by offering a diverse product range that enhances customer engagement and repeat purchases [35][36] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with various retail formats adapting to meet consumer preferences, indicating a promising growth trajectory for the fresh snack sector [36]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 02 11 年 月 日 固定收益点评 详解股债恒定 ETF——产品特征、海外经验与国内前景 ETF 具有显著的配置工具属性，且在过往几年里成为关注度最高、发展 最快的基金品种之一，国内 ETF 制度体系近年来持续完善。2022 年提 出"支持成熟指数型产品做大做强，加快推动 ETF 产品创新发展"。 2024 年，"新国九条"正式出台，首次在国家层面建立"ETF 快速审批 通道"，并将指数化投资提升至战略高度；同年还通过引导中长期资金 入市等配套改革，巩固 ETF 配置优势。2025 年，监管进一步优化注册流 程，并在销售费用新规中为 ETF 提供了赎回费差异化安排。 预期首批股债恒定类 ETF 将很快落地。2025 年《促进资本市场指数化投 资高质量发展行动方案》则首次明确提出"研究推出多资产 ETF"，为 股债恒定类产品提供了直接的政策依据。与此同时，中证指数公司与中 债金融估值中心自 2024 年起陆续发布多条股债恒定比例指数。 股债恒定类 ETF 是指以预设固定比例（如 20/80、30/70 等）配置股 票与债券资产的被动型交易所交易基 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [4][6] Core Insights - In 2025, Yum China achieved revenue of $11.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $929 million, up 2% year-on-year. The core operating profit reached $1.292 billion, reflecting an 11% increase [1] - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising 24% to $140 million, and core operating profit increasing 23% to $185 million [1] - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, with a net increase of 1,706 stores during the year, and the proportion of franchised stores increased to 31% [1] - For 2026, the company aims to exceed 20,000 stores, with a net increase of over 1,900 stores, and targets for KFC and Pizza Hut franchised stores to reach 40%-50% [1] Financial Performance - Same-store sales growth for the company, KFC, and Pizza Hut in Q4 2025 was 3%, 3%, and 1% respectively, with same-store transaction volume increasing by 4% [2] - The overall restaurant profit margin was 13.0%, with KFC at 14.0% and Pizza Hut at 9.9%, reflecting improvements due to reduced costs in raw materials and rent [2] - The company expects revenues of $12.301 billion, $13.343 billion, and $14.382 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with net profits projected at $1.003 billion, $1.091 billion, and $1.196 billion [5] Strategic Initiatives - New brands are expanding, with K Coffee reaching 2,200 locations and KPRO expanding to over 200 locations, while Pizza Hut's WOW stores are entering approximately 100 new towns [3] - Single-store investment has been optimized, with KFC's investment decreasing from approximately $1.5 million in 2024 to $1.3 million in 2025, and Pizza Hut's from $1.2 million to $1 million [3] - The company plans to maintain shareholder returns at $1.5 billion in 2026, with expectations of average annual returns of $900 million to $1 billion in 2027-2028 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for H&H International Holdings, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [5]. Core Insights - H&H International Holdings is positioned as a leader in family nutrition, with a fundamental upward turning point anticipated. The company has undergone significant growth and expansion through acquisitions, but has faced challenges in recent years due to market pressures and debt burdens. However, recent adjustments and a favorable interest rate environment are expected to support a recovery in performance [1][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - H&H International Holdings, established in 1999, has evolved from a probiotic-focused company to a comprehensive family nutrition leader, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.1% in revenue and 89.9% in net profit from 2007 to 2013. The company has since diversified through acquisitions, including brands like Swisse and Solid Gold, but faced a downturn from 2021 onwards due to pressures in the milk powder segment and increased debt [1][16][18]. Business Structure - The company operates through three main segments: Adult Nutrition and Care (ANC), Infant Nutrition and Care (BNC), and Pet Nutrition and Care (PNC). ANC is the largest segment, projected to generate revenue of 67.0 billion RMB in 2024, a 9.0% increase year-on-year. BNC is expected to decline by 25.8% to 43.8 billion RMB, while PNC is anticipated to grow by 5.3% to 19.7 billion RMB [21][22]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to report revenues of 130.5 billion RMB and a net loss of 0.5 billion RMB in 2024. However, a recovery is anticipated with projected net profits of 4.2 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 886.3% [9][11]. Market Trends - The health supplement market is experiencing robust growth, particularly in China, where e-commerce channels are gaining prominence. The company is leveraging this trend through its Swisse brand, which has a diversified product matrix targeting various consumer segments [2][21]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a recovery trajectory for the company, driven by improved operational efficiency, a reduction in interest expenses due to a favorable interest rate cycle, and a rebound in sales across its segments. The anticipated net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 886.3%, 38.2%, and 22.3%, respectively [9][11][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The release of Byte's Seedance 2.0 marks a significant advancement in video generation technology, supporting multi-modal inputs (image, video, audio, text) and enhancing controllability, which is expected to drive industrialization in the video generation sector [1][21] - The traditional "gacha" mechanism in the AI drama industry, which incurs additional costs due to the randomness of AI-generated content, is addressed by Seedance 2.0's improved controllability, potentially reducing production costs and timelines [2][22] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that adopting Seedance 2.0 could lower total generation costs by approximately 5% under conservative assumptions and by 37% under neutral assumptions, compared to industry peers [2][30] Summary by Sections 1. Seedance 2.0 Release - Seedance 2.0 has been launched with enhanced capabilities, supporting four types of inputs and improving instruction understanding, physical realism, and element consistency [1][11] - The model's controllability allows for precise replication of complex camera movements and actions, enhancing the overall video generation process [17][19] 2. Implications for the Industry - The significant improvement in controllability is expected to lead to a leap in the industrialization of video generation, reducing the costs associated with the "gacha" mechanism prevalent in the AI-generated content industry [22] - The report highlights that Seedance 2.0 can effectively lower production costs and timelines in the AI drama sector by minimizing the need for multiple attempts to achieve satisfactory results [2][22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI drama such as Wanjing Technology, Kuaishou, Fubo Group, and New Guodu, as well as multi-modal companies like Danghong Technology and Hongruan Technology [3][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The release of Byte's Seedance 2.0 marks a significant advancement in video generation technology, supporting multi-modal inputs (image, video, audio, text) and enhancing controllability, which is expected to drive industrialization in the video generation sector [1][21] - The traditional "gacha" mechanism in the AI drama industry, which incurs additional costs due to the randomness of AI-generated content, is addressed by Seedance 2.0's improved controllability, potentially reducing production costs and timelines [2][22] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that adopting Seedance 2.0 could lower total generation costs by approximately 5% under conservative assumptions and by 37% under neutral assumptions, compared to industry peers [2][30] Summary by Sections 1. Seedance 2.0 Release - Seedance 2.0 has been launched with enhanced multi-modal capabilities, allowing for a richer creative process by integrating various input types [1][11] - The model's foundational capabilities have improved, with better accuracy in instruction understanding and physical realism, leading to more natural and fluid video generation [12][14] - The model's controllability has significantly increased, enabling precise replication of complex camera movements and actions, enhancing the overall coherence of generated videos [17][19] 2. Implications for the Industry - The enhanced controllability of Seedance 2.0 is expected to facilitate a leap in the industrialization of video generation, addressing the cost burdens associated with the "gacha" mechanism in AI-generated content [22] - The report highlights the potential for reduced production costs and timelines in the AI drama industry due to the improved efficiency of Seedance 2.0 [2][22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI drama, such as Wanxing Technology, Kuaishou, Fubo Group, and New Guodu, as well as multi-modal technology firms like Danghong Technology and Hongruan Technology [3][30]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that the cyclical sector is expected to enter an expansion phase, with both cyclical and growth sectors currently in the analysts' expansion zone, resonating with the industry mainline model [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative amount of pending foreign exchange settlement funds since 2022 is approximately 1.13 trillion USD, with a weighted average exchange rate of 7.1 [2] - It is projected that the USD to RMB exchange rate will likely stabilize between 6.8 and 7.1 in 2026, with an overall upward trend but limited potential for sustained unilateral appreciation [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report lists the top-performing industries for January, March, and the past year, with notable performances in the oil and petrochemical sector (32.0% increase over the past year) and construction materials (42.7% increase) [1] - Conversely, the report identifies the worst-performing industries, including defense and military (-6.7% in January) and pharmaceuticals (-3.6% in January) [1] Group 3: Company Analysis - Huijia Times - Huijia Times is recognized for its competitive advantages, including a dense store network and deep local market insights, which contribute to significant scale effects and brand barriers in the Xinjiang region [6] - The company is actively upgrading its supermarket and shopping center formats and exploring innovative "low-altitude economy + consumption" scenarios, which are expected to open a second growth curve [6] - Revenue projections for Huijia Times from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.422 billion, 2.557 billion, and 2.782 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively [6]

1、回顾看，自 2012 年"强制结售汇"退出、汇率市场化推进后，外汇 由"藏汇于国"转为"藏汇于民"，待结汇资金逐步累积，其规模变化主要 与利差、汇率预期等因素有关。 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 宏观点评 待结汇资金超万亿，对人民币影响几何？ 我们此前报告《人民币汇率"破 7"：原因、展望、影响》中指出，集中结 汇是本轮人民币汇率升值的重要原因之一。本篇报告进一步定量测算了待 结汇资金的规模、持汇成本，复盘了结汇与汇率表现之间的关系，并拆解 了企业结汇与流动性、信用扩张的关系，以期全面分析待结汇资金的影响。 核心结论：大体测算，2022 年以来累积的待结汇资金规模约 1.13 万亿美 元，持汇成本多集中在 7.0-7.2，加权平均为 7.1。因此，当前人民币升值 的背景下，叠加人民币资产吸引力上升，企业结汇可能延续。但从历史复 盘来看，汇率的实际表现并不仅仅取决于结汇规模这单一变量，而是由基 本面预期、美元走势等共同决定，不宜根据结汇规模直接映射汇率升值幅 度。往后看，维持我们此前判断："十五五"开局之年，国内经济总体保持 稳步增长，外部风险相对可 ...