证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 固定收益定期 而社融增速回落意味着未来几个月资产供给增速放缓。今年社融同比增速从去年 末的 8.0%回升至今年年中最高的 9.0%，资产供给的增加有效缓解了资产荒状况。 社融增速回升主要由政府债券推动，今年政府债券同比多增近 3 万亿，背后是财 政显著发力。我们按明年财政赤字 4%、特别国债 2 万亿以及新增专项债 4.5 万亿 的假定估算，明年政府债券将较今年多增 5000 亿左右，这个增量显著小于今年。 在非政府债券社融增量与今年持平的情况下，社融增速在明年上半年或再度放缓， 这意味着资金供给下降。 资金供给增加而融资需求下降，未来几个月资产荒有望再度加剧，这意味着总量 意义上债市会逐步走强。但近期超长债大幅调整显示，总体走强情况下结构上会 面临挑战。我们在此前报告中进行过论述，由于银行长债承接较多，导致△EVE 等 部分指标压力过大，特别是大行。而近期保险保费收入节奏放缓以及资产配置向 权益倾斜等，导致保险这些传统的超长债承接者配置力量不足。而交易型机构仓 位过于集中之后，就容易发生集中减仓带来的快速调整。过去这 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 有色金属 美国铜库存持续流入，非美地区低库存引发逼仓风险 贵金属：白银 ETF 持续流入，银价再创新高。本周公布的美国 9 月核心 PCE 同比为 2.8%， 低于前值和预期值 2.9%，一定程度提振市场对 12 月 11 日美联储议息会议押注。后续关注 12 月 11 日美联储议息会议和 12 月 19 日日本央行利率决议，根据 CME fedwatch，目前市 场认为美联储 12 月降息概率为 86.2%，较一周前 86.4%变化不大。另外据路透报道，日本 央行或将把政策利率从 0.5%上调至 0.75%，这将是自今年 1 月以来的首次加息。政府的立 场是"如果日本央行本月想加息，请自行决定"，这被视为默许央行采取行动。自 11 月 12 日以来，SLV 白银 ETF 再次出现大量的净流入状态，截至 12 月 5 日流入量达 837 吨，继续 创年内新高，对白银价格形成重要支撑。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万国黄金集团、 中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：美国铜库存持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puxin Co., San Ke Shu, and Wei Xing New Materials, while recommending "Hold" for Bei Xin Materials [8]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with a focus on the impact of government policies to stimulate growth. The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects and the importance of monitoring the government's debt management strategies [1][2]. - The cement market is characterized by a slight increase in prices and production, but overall demand remains weak, particularly in residential construction. The report suggests that a more robust macroeconomic support is needed for a significant recovery [17][28]. - The glass manufacturing sector is facing supply-demand imbalances, but self-regulated production cuts in photovoltaic glass may alleviate some pressure. The report emphasizes the need to watch for price stability in this segment [1][5]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and demand from wind power projects expected to rise. The report indicates a positive outlook for high-end electronic fiberglass products [6][7]. - Consumer building materials are benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong market share potential [1][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, the national cement price index is 352.47 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.77%. Cement output reached 2.971 million tons, up 0.2% from the previous week [17]. - The utilization rate of cement clinker production lines is 39.65%, reflecting a 1.21 percentage point increase week-on-week. However, the overall demand remains in a year-on-year contraction phase [17][28]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of December 4, 2025, is 1163.86 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.40%. Inventory levels are high, with a total of 56.75 million weight boxes reported [2][5]. - The report notes that while northern regions are experiencing reduced demand, southern regions are seeing price adjustments as manufacturers attempt to balance supply and demand [5][6]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market for fiberglass remains stable, with limited demand recovery. The report indicates that electronic fiberglass prices have seen a slight increase, suggesting a tightening supply situation [6][7]. Consumer Building Materials Tracking - The demand for consumer building materials continues to show weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices fluctuating. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these price changes for investment decisions [7]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production increasing by 25.83% week-on-week. However, the report indicates that profitability remains under pressure due to high production costs [7].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 房地产开发 REITs 周报——二级投资回归理性，有巢扩募份额向原持有人配售 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数下跌 0.85%。截至 12.5，本周（11.28-12.5， 下同）中证 REITs(收盘)指数下跌 0.98%，收于 801.2 点；中证 REITs 全 收益指数下跌 0.85%，收于 1031.5 点。本周沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期 国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速公路(申万)指数分别上涨 1.28%/上涨 0.87%/下跌 0.09%/下跌 2.15%/下跌 0.21%/上涨 0.94%。 其中沪深 300 本周涨幅最高，REITs 全收益指数排行第 6。 本年中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 6.57%。截至 12.5，本年中证 REITs(收盘)指数涨幅为 1.47%，中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 6.57%。 本年沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速 公路(申万)指数上涨 16.51%/上涨 30.04%/下跌 1.20 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the credit market will continue to exhibit a low valuation environment with a rate-driven trend, influenced by factors such as reduced supply and increased demand for credit assets [2][3][4] - The issuance of Sci-tech bonds and ETFs has been a highlight in the credit market, with a cumulative issuance of 1.99 trillion yuan by November 25, 2025, significantly surpassing the 1.22 trillion yuan issued in 2024 [2][3] - The report anticipates that the credit market will maintain a low valuation environment, with potential adjustments in long-term credit bonds due to redemption pressures from trading institutions [2][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the transformation year for local government financing platforms, with a focus on the orderly exit of high-level issuers and market-oriented transitions in 2026 [3][4] - It highlights that the net financing of the "two eternals" (二永) is expected to remain low, with a projected range of 200 billion to 400 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting ongoing asset scarcity [4][5] - The report notes that the issuance of local government bonds will not see a new round of overall expansion but will undergo structural reshaping, with a focus on higher-level issuers [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit market has shown resilience amid market fluctuations, with credit spreads narrowing during recovery phases [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for credit asset management to seek breakthroughs in a low interest rate environment, including expanding investment directions and developing alternative investment products [6][2] - The analysis of default risks shows a significant decrease in the number of defaults in 2025, with only 8 companies defaulting compared to 19 in 2024, indicating improved credit conditions [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the electricity industry [3] Core Views - The introduction of the 2026 electricity trading scheme in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces aims to deepen market reforms, enhance price predictability, and encourage the consumption of renewable energy [14][6] - The "computing power and electricity synergy" strategy is being promoted at the national level to meet the growing electricity demand from the AI industry, with a focus on using clean energy [6][15] - The report recommends focusing on flexible thermal power resources, energy storage, and virtual power plants as investment opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% to 3902.81 points, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.28% to 4584.54 points during the week [62] - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index reported a slight increase of 0.01% to 3114.45 points, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.26 percentage points [62] Key Developments - The 2026 electricity trading scheme in Zhejiang introduces a requirement that at least 70% of annual trading volume must be secured through long-term contracts, enhancing market stability [14] - In Jiangsu, the trading scheme allows for all renewable energy projects to enter the market, with a focus on signing long-term purchase agreements [14] - The report highlights a significant increase in computing power demand, with a 30% annual growth rate in total computing power scale in China [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in thermal power companies such as Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and Datang Power, as well as in leading companies in flexible thermal power transformation [7] - It also recommends focusing on undervalued green energy companies, particularly in wind and solar power sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [7] - For hydropower and nuclear power, companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investments [7] Market Trends - The report notes that coal prices have decreased to 800 RMB per ton, which may positively impact thermal power generation costs [17] - The carbon market saw a price increase of 0.69% this week, with a closing price of 60.06 RMB per ton [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [6]. Core Insights - The environmental monitoring and air pollution control sectors are expected to benefit from new policies and regulations aimed at enhancing air quality management and performance evaluation [17][18]. - The report highlights the importance of the ecological environment department's new guidelines for air quality performance grading, which will create a favorable environment for companies involved in air pollution control and environmental monitoring [17]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the environmental sector due to low macroeconomic interest rates, recommending companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [2][29]. Summary by Sections Policy and Regulation - The ecological environment department has issued guidelines to strengthen air quality performance grading, establishing a four-tier evaluation system (A, B, C, D) to promote green and low-carbon transformation in key industries [10][17]. - The newly enacted Shanxi Province Environmental Protection Regulations aim to prevent and reduce pollution, which will positively impact the environmental monitoring sector [18]. Market Performance - The environmental sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 1.45% against a 0.37% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [32]. - Key stocks in the environmental sector showed varied performance, with China Tianying leading gains at 9.07% while Yishida faced a significant drop of 14.39% [32]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is recognized for its strong growth potential, particularly in hazardous waste management and innovative recycling projects [31]. - Gaoneng Environment is positioned as a leading environmental system service provider, focusing on solid waste and hazardous waste resource utilization [31]. - Hongcheng Environment is noted for its consistent dividend payouts and robust growth in environmental services [31].

交通运输 快递行业增速红利消退，龙头企业有望迎来双击 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 周观点：看好快递两条投资主线。反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步向头部快 递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、利润同 步提升，有望迎来双击。出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外电商 GMV 爆 发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.22%，跑赢上证指数 0.86 个百分点（上证指数上涨 0.37%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨 幅前三名分别为公路货运、公交、航空运输板块，涨幅分别为 6.90%、 3.04%、2.31%；跌幅前三名分别为仓储物流、跨境物流、快递板块，对 应跌幅分别为-0.86%、-0.42%、-0.10%。 出行：继续看好航空板块中长期景气度。运力供给维持低增速、需求持续 恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策推进，静待票价 持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。持续跟踪需求修复情况，关注公商务出行 需求及国际航班恢复情况。 航运港口：油运，四季度运价维持高位，市场担心旺季结 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 量化周报 当下的反弹大概率仍只是 30 分钟级别反弹 当下的反弹大概率仍只是 30 分钟级别反弹。本周（12.1-12.5），大盘先 抑后扬，上证指数全周收涨 0.37%。在此背景下，通信迎来日线级别上涨， 地产确认日线级别下跌。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹 已经持续了 7 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的 上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超 2/3 的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎 所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-17浪的上涨结构， 科创 50、中小 100 更是在所有宽基里面率先形成了日线级别下跌，地产、 食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车、电子、计算机、军工、非银、机械也 相继形成了日线级别下跌，中证 500、中证 1000、创业板指、沪深 300、 传媒、建筑、建材也有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。因此我们认为本轮 日线级别上涨大概率已经结束。未来市场大概率会是震荡调整的态势，当 下的反弹大概率只是一波 30 分钟级别反弹，风格后续大概率会进行高低 切。中期来看， ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 05 年 月 日 量化点评报告 行业 ETF 配置模型 2025 年超额 16.4% 根据景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架，我们有"强趋势－低拥挤"和"高景气－ 强趋势"两套行业轮动方案。趋势拥挤模型本月推荐农业、传媒、建材、 轻工行业；景气趋势模型本月推荐非银、计算机、家电、煤炭等行业。相 较于上个月，模型明显由高切低，增配金融周期板块。 ① 行业主线模型：相对强弱指标。2024 年出现 RS>90 的行业有：煤炭、 电力及公用事业、家电、银行、石油石化、通信、有色金属、农林牧渔和 汽车。经过全年验证，这些行业确实阶段性地成为了市场的行情主线，上 半年主要是高股息、资源品和出海，下半年主要是 AI。截止到 2025 年 4 月底，共 17 个行业出现 RS>90 的信号，以 TMT 板块、银行、制造和部 分消费行业为主。今年 4 月底前几乎半数行业曾表现强势，行业主线判断 难度较大，四季度配置建议以均衡为主，目前与行业轮动模型选出行业基 本重合。 ② 行业轮动模型：景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架。12 月行业配置组合权重为： 传媒 16%、农林牧渔 1 ...