证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 23 年 月 日 宏观专题 有喜有忧—春节大事 8 看点 春节假期、大事不少，整体有喜有忧、喜大于忧；继续提示，大环境依 旧是市场的好朋友，乐观点、乘势而上、调整就是机会：全球看，特朗 普 IEEPA 关税被判违宪、美伊谈判取得进展、高市早苗当选、美国 2025 年 Q4GDP 低于预期等；国内看，经济数据表现分化，偏差的是信贷低 于预期、新房销售同比降幅走阔、假期电影票房回落等，偏好的是物价 边际改善、假期出行旅游活跃、二手房销售好转、社融等，经济"开门 红"成色仍有待观察；政策看，关注总书记求是发文，多部门部署强产 业，中美元首通话，地方两会收官；资产看，风险偏好提振、全球股市 多数上涨，美元指数上涨、人民币汇率逆势走强。 看点 1：全球政经及地缘政治密集变化，聚焦四大方面：美伊谈判、关 税违宪、WTO 中国方案、高市早苗当选。1）美伊谈判取得进展，但 关键议题分歧不小，短期存在军事冲突升级可能，中期看美伊根本分歧 预计较难化解。2）特朗普 IEEPA 关税被判违宪，对等关税和芬太尼关税 将中止征收，特朗普新增 122 关税作为过渡措施 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 23 年 月 日 中小盘 太空算力升维之战—从地面"内卷"到太空"新战场" 一、太空圈地：中国占位算力升维新赛道 当全球 AI 竞赛将地面算力与能源消耗推向极限，一片拥有无限太阳能 与天然超低温散热环境的"算力净土"—近地轨道，正成为科技巨头与 国家力量竞相角逐的新疆域。这不仅是算力基础设施的物理位置迁移， 更是对数字时代底层架构的一次升维重构。中国凭借在星座规模化组 网、星间激光通信与商业化闭环上的先发优势，已在这场关乎未来数 字主权的"太空圈地运动"中占据身位，相关产业链正迎来从技术验证 到规模商用的历史性机遇。 二、升维动力：为何非要"送算力上天"？ 将沉重的服务器搬到数百公里高的太空，并非炫技，而是破解地面算 力发展三大核心瓶颈的必然选择。 （一）能源成本"归零"想象：地面数据中心是"电老虎"，其中近 40% 的电力消耗于散热系统。太空提供了近乎无限的太阳能（24 小时无遮 挡）和接近绝对零度的真空环境，相当于把电费和空调费两大成本"外 包"给了宇宙，这有望省去地面 70%以上的相关成本。 （二）传输效率的"时空革命"：传统卫星如同 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a high dividend reallocation strategy for the highway sector, indicating a favorable investment rating as it awaits policy catalysts [2]. Core Insights - The highway industry is characterized by state-owned enterprises dominating the market, leading to regional monopolies. 95% of the 22 listed highway companies are state-owned, with 77% having provincial or municipal government backgrounds [10][11]. - The industry is entering a mature phase, marked by a slowdown in investment and stable growth in revenue and net profit, with a projected 4% growth in highway mileage by 2024 [14][24]. - The highway sector exhibits characteristics of a heavy asset, strong cash flow, and low cyclicality, making it a stable investment with predictable returns [33]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The highway industry is primarily state-led, resulting in regional monopolies, with most provinces having only one listed highway platform [10]. - The industry is closely tied to public welfare, with government oversight on toll rates and operational aspects [11]. Value Proposition - High dividend assets provide a defensive investment logic, with stable cash flows and a dividend yield that offers protection against market volatility [82]. - The report highlights that highway stocks have shown defensive characteristics during market downturns, with significant excess returns during periods of market stress [82]. Growth Drivers - The growth in the highway sector is driven by both organic growth and acquisitions, with a focus on expansion and improvement of existing infrastructure [90]. - Investment in upgrades can extend the toll collection period, ensuring high operational efficiency and returns [91]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks and those with increasing dividend rates, such as 安徽皖通高速公路, 山东高速, 粤高速A, and 招商公路, which have shown resilience and attractive yields [88].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Li Ning, Anta Sports, Shenzhou International, and Huayi Group, among others [5][10][31]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a steady growth in exports from Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, which continues to outperform China in this regard [2][21]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders for apparel manufacturing companies in 2026, with an expectation of improved profitability quality compared to previous periods [1][22]. - The sportswear segment is expected to show resilience and long-term growth potential, with companies like Li Ning and Anta Sports being highlighted for their strong inventory management and marketing strategies [3][28]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - Several apparel manufacturers reported their January 2026 revenue, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group showing year-on-year changes of -1.8%, +7.6%, and +0.6% respectively [1][13][14]. - The overall performance of apparel manufacturing shipments is expected to be flat in Q4 2025, with short-term profit margins under pressure due to order fluctuations [1][22]. Industry Export Performance - In 2025, China's apparel and accessories export value is projected to be $151.2 billion, down 5.0% year-on-year, while textile yarns and fabrics are expected to see a slight increase of 0.5% [2][21]. - Vietnam's textile exports in January 2026 reached $3.25 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, and footwear exports were $2.05 billion, up 7.8% [2][21]. Company Recommendations - Li Ning is recommended due to its anticipated brand strength during the Olympic cycle, with expected net profit growth of 5.8% in 2026 [3][28]. - Anta Sports is highlighted for its excellent operational capabilities, with a projected net profit increase of 6.4% in 2026 [3][28]. - Shenzhou International is recommended for its cost-effective valuation and expected stable growth in revenue and profit in 2026 [30][31]. Inventory and Order Trends - The industry inventory is considered healthy, with expectations for steady improvement in downstream orders [30]. - Key brands are expected to see a recovery in orders, with some brands outperforming market expectations [22][24]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that brand clients are expected to adopt a more flexible ordering rhythm due to cautious economic outlooks, which may lead to differentiated performance among brands [22][27]. - The overall competitive landscape is expected to optimize in the medium to long term, benefiting integrated and internationalized manufacturers [27].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The credit performance at the beginning of the year was lackluster, and government bonds drove the growth of social financing. In the context of the front - loaded government bond issuance and the weak recovery of corporate medium - and long - term loans, the growth rate of social financing in the first half of 2026 may continue a gentle downward trend [1][6][10] - The increase in the M1 growth rate in January 2026 was mainly due to the Spring Festival factor, and the divergence between the M2 growth rate and the social financing growth rate might be affected by multiple factors such as the increase in the scale of foreign exchange settlement and the low base of non - bank deposits [2][12][16] - The large increase in fiscal deposits led to a withdrawal of funds, and the improvement in liquidity might be due to weak credit demand or the central bank's use of structural tools. Under the expectation of monetary easing, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival [3][19][21][23] 3. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In January 2026, the new credit was 4.71 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 trillion yuan. Considering the Spring Festival factor, credit demand was even weaker. Corporate credit increased by 44,500 yuan billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3,300 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 31,800 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2,800 billion yuan. Resident medium - and long - term loans increased by 346.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 146.6 billion yuan, mainly dragged down by the weak real estate market [1][6] Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 165.4 billion yuan. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly driven by the large - scale issuance of government bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new scale of government bonds in January 2026 was 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan. In the first half of 2026, the growth rate of social financing may continue to decline gently [1][10] M1 and M2 Growth Rate Situation - In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 4.9%, mainly due to the Spring Festival misalignment factor, which pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in January by about 1.3 percentage points [2][12][14] - From November last year to January this year, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 increased by 1.0 percentage point to 9.0%, while the growth rate of the social financing stock slowed down by 0.3 percentage points to 8.2%. The increase in the foreign exchange settlement ratio and the large year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits might be the reasons for the divergence between the two [2][16] Liquidity Situation - The increase in foreign exchange settlement did not form liquidity injection, and the large increase in fiscal deposits in January led to a withdrawal of liquidity. However, the liquidity was actually very loose in January. One reason was the weak credit demand, and the other was the possible use of structural tools by the central bank [3][19][21] Bond Market Outlook - Currently, social financing is weak. Under the expectation of the use of aggregate monetary tools and loose money, the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen after the Spring Festival, with short - term interest rates likely to decline further, and the dumbbell strategy on the curve is relatively more advantageous [3][23]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[7] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[7] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the overall CPI month-on-month increase was only 0.2%[3][4] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4][6] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising before declining, and bond yields fluctuating[9] - After the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 Federal Reserve chair transition, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12] - The market currently anticipates approximately 2.5 rate cuts for 2026, aligning with economic fundamentals but potentially underestimating challenges to the Fed's independence[12]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[2] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below market expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations but higher than the 12-month average of 0.2%[3] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising and then falling, while gold prices increased[9] - After the CPI announcement, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to launch VLA 2.0 in March 2026, significantly enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities with advanced hardware and software integration [1] - 2026 is projected to be the year of Robotaxi commercialization, with three models expected to be launched, featuring L4 autonomous driving capabilities [2] - The company anticipates strong growth in overseas markets, with a projected delivery of 45,000 units in 2025, representing a 96% year-on-year increase, and expects overseas revenue to exceed 20% in 2026 [3] - 2026 will also mark the mass production of advanced humanoid robots, aimed at commercial applications [4] - The investment recommendation highlights the company's strong product cycle, overseas expansion, advancements in autonomous driving, and emerging business opportunities in robotics and Robotaxi [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total vehicle sales of approximately 430,000 units in 2025, increasing to 566,000 units in 2026, and 836,000 units in 2027 [15] - Revenue is projected to reach 75.2 billion RMB in 2025, 103.1 billion RMB in 2026, and 145.5 billion RMB in 2027, with a significant increase in gross profit margins [15] - The non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to improve from -1.2% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [7][15] - The company anticipates a total revenue of 100.1 billion RMB from its core business in 2026, with an estimated profit contribution of 2.7 billion RMB from its collaboration with Volkswagen [5] Market Strategy - The company plans to introduce three new models in overseas markets in 2026, focusing on Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [3] - The production strategy includes partnerships with local firms in Europe and Southeast Asia to better meet local demand [3] - The introduction of the Mona SUV series is expected to enhance the company's market presence in the competitive pricing segment while maintaining advanced intelligent driving capabilities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry, with a focus on specific stocks such as 香农芯创, 东山精密, 兆易创新, 北方华创, 中微公司, and 胜宏科技 [6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI models from Alibaba and ByteDance, which are expected to drive a substantial increase in computing power demand, particularly in video generation applications [2][12]. - The NAND market is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI-related data center demands, with a forecasted bit shipment growth rate of approximately 17%-19% for 2026 [3][61]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Model Releases and Computing Demand - Alibaba's Qwen-Image-2.0 model integrates image generation and editing, supporting 1K token inputs and 2K resolution, enhancing performance significantly [13][15]. - ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 model, released on February 12, 2026, demonstrates a 3-5 times increase in computing power consumption compared to standard video generation models, indicating a shift towards more computationally intensive applications [19][20]. Section 2: Kioxia's Financial Performance - Kioxia reported a record revenue of 543.6 billion JPY (approximately 3.5 billion USD) for FY25Q3, marking a 21.3% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) and bit shipments [46][47]. - The company anticipates full-year revenue for FY25 to be between 2.18 trillion JPY and 2.27 trillion JPY, with a focus on increasing the proportion of data center and enterprise SSD shipments [58][61]. Section 3: Semiconductor Industry Trends - The report notes that domestic AI applications are transitioning from "technology development" to "scaled deployment," which is expected to inject strong momentum into the domestic AI computing industry [2][12]. - SMIC's Q4 2025 revenue reached 2.489 billion USD, a 12.8% year-over-year increase, with a focus on expanding production capacity and optimizing business structure [25][31]. Section 4: Related Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key stocks and sectors for investment, including computing chips, interconnect chips, storage modules, semiconductor equipment, and materials, highlighting companies like 寒武纪, 中微公司, and 香农芯创 [62][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company is set to launch VLA 2.0 in March 2026, significantly enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities with advanced hardware and software integration [1] - 2026 is anticipated to be the year of Robotaxi for the company, with plans to introduce three Robotaxi models equipped with advanced autonomous driving systems [2] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in overseas sales, projecting a delivery volume of 45,000 units in 2025, a 96% year-on-year increase, with expectations to exceed 20% of total revenue from international markets by 2026 [3] - The company plans to mass-produce advanced humanoid robots by the end of 2026, aiming to integrate them into commercial scenarios [4] - The investment recommendation highlights strong product cycles, overseas expansion, advancements in autonomous driving, and emerging business opportunities in robotics and Robotaxi [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total vehicle sales of approximately 430,000 units in 2025, increasing to 566,000 units in 2026, and 836,000 units in 2027 [15] - Revenue is projected to reach 75.2 billion RMB in 2025, 103.1 billion RMB in 2026, and 145.5 billion RMB in 2027, with a significant increase in gross profit margins [7][15] - The non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to improve from -1.2% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [5][15] - The company anticipates a main business revenue of 100.1 billion RMB in 2026, with a profit contribution from partnerships expected to be around 2.7 billion RMB [5] Market Strategy - The company plans to launch three new models in overseas markets in 2026, focusing on Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [3] - The introduction of the Mona SUV series is expected to cater to the mass market while providing advanced intelligent driving capabilities [3]