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美格智能(002881):端侧AI起势,物联网黑马迎来重估
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-27 11:33
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 02 27 年 月 日 筹划港股上市,资本助力全球化与 AI 产品迭代。公司积极推进港股上市 进程,2026 年 2 月 11 日通过港交所聆讯,募集资金有望用于高算力模组 研发投入、海外市场拓展及供应链能力提升。港股平台的建立一方面增强 公司融资能力,另一方面提升国际客户认可度与品牌影响力,有助于进一 步拓展全球 AI IoT 及智能终端客户资源。在端侧 AI 进入产业加速期背景 下,公司资本实力与研发能力同步增强,将更好把握 AI 应用落地带来的 结构性机会。 投资建议:作为端侧 AI 高算力模组全球龙头,美格智能深度受益 AI Agent 催化的终端算力需求爆发,高通生态提供技术保障,港股上市有望加速全 球化与价值重估。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 224、358、 488 亿元,对应 PE 为 55、34、25 倍,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示:AI 发展不及预期,市场竞争加剧,地缘政治影响等。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 务增长迅速》 2024-0 ...
鸣鸣很忙(01768):鸣响渠道变革,忙驭万店星辰
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-27 11:32
证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2026 02 27 年 月 日 鸣鸣很忙(01768.HK) 鸣响渠道变革,忙驭万店星辰 核心观点:颠覆传统运营模式,牵引零售业态变革。鸣鸣很忙作为中国量 贩零食赛道龙头企业,牵引本轮折扣业态零售变革,从 2022 年零食很忙 门店数量破千,到 2025 年 11 月末鸣鸣很忙超 2.1 万家门店,高速扩店的 背后是对消费者性价比需求的满足、渠道供应链路的精简。2024 年鸣鸣 很忙达成 393.4 亿元营收,2 年 CAGR 达 203.0%,成为中国最大的休闲 食品饮料连锁零售商,2025 年前三季度营收进一步同比+75.2%至 463.7 亿元,净利润同比+218.8%至 15.6 亿元,带动净利率同比显著+1.5pct 至 3.4%,若加回股份支付费用,经调整净利率同比+1.9pct 至 3.9%。 行业变革:性价比优势立身,精细化运营谋远。中国零售业态持续高速迭 代,弱需求强供给背景下,当前渠道变革更往折扣化方向演变,量贩以" 上 游直采、集中议价、运营提效"重构供应链,率先实现性价比优势。行业 发展前半程,核心比拼扩店速度,经过跑马圈地、 ...
惠而浦(600983):拟认购惠而浦集团普通股,进一步深化合作
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 13:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The subscription of shares by Whirlpool China is expected to strengthen the global collaboration and influence of the company, enhancing cooperation with the group [2] - The current dividend yield for WHR is 4.95%, indicating a favorable financial return [2] - Future growth is anticipated due to the company's ability to secure orders from Whirlpool Group, increased OEM releases in Japan and Southeast Asia, cost reduction and efficiency improvements after the acquisition of Galanz, and changes in competitive dynamics [2] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 505 million, 616 million, and 743 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 150.5%, 21.8%, and 20.7% [2] - Revenue is expected to grow from 4,455 million yuan in 2025 to 6,454 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 22.1%, 21.1%, and 19.7% [3] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from 0.66 yuan in 2025 to 0.97 yuan in 2027 [3] Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is reported at 4,004 million yuan, with a projected decline of 6.1% year-on-year [3] - The net profit for 2023 is reported at 81 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 190.4% [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 3.2% in 2023 to 29.9% in 2027 [3]
拟认购惠而浦集团普通股,进一步深化合作
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 12:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The proposed subscription of $30 million in common stock by Whirlpool China aims to strengthen global collaboration with the Whirlpool Group, enhancing its influence and deepening cooperation. The current dividend yield for WHR is 4.95%, indicating good financial returns [2] - The company is expected to benefit from increased orders from the Whirlpool Group, growth in OEM releases in Japan and Southeast Asia, cost reduction and efficiency improvements following the acquisition by Galanz, and changes in competitive dynamics within the industry. Future growth is anticipated [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 4,004 million yuan in 2023 to 6,454 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.1% in 2023, 22.1% in 2025, 21.1% in 2026, and 19.7% in 2027 [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 81 million yuan in 2023 to 743 million yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates of 190.4% in 2024, 150.5% in 2025, 21.8% in 2026, and 20.7% in 2027 [3] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.11 yuan in 2023 to 0.97 yuan in 2027 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 3.2% in 2023 to 29.9% in 2027 [3] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 113.7 in 2023 to 12.4 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to remain relatively stable, ranging from 3.6 in 2023 to 3.7 in 2027 [3]
轻工制造:XTool:激光创意方兴未艾,驭光造物龙头引航
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 10:24
证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 26 年 月 日 轻工制造 增持(维持) 行业走势 XTool:激光创意方兴未艾,驭光造物龙头引航 公司概况:全球激光类个人创意工具龙头 xTool 是全球激光类个人创意工具领域的龙头企业,于 2013 年在深圳成 立。按 2025 年前九个月 GMV 计,公司以 37%的份额位居全球激光类个 人创意工具市场首位;在细分的激光雕刻机及切割机市场,其市场份额高 达 47%,是第二大品牌的六倍。公司构建了以激光类工具为核心,材质打 印机、软件及配件耗材协同发展的产品矩阵,并通过免费软件 xTool Studio 与配套耗材销售提升用户粘性与复购。公司收入高度依赖海外市场,2024 年海外收入占比达 97%,全球化特征明显。 行业:科技赋能个人创意工具市场高速成长 科技赋能个人创意工具是利用激光、打印、数控等技术将数字创意转化为 实体产品的设备集群。该市场增长强劲,按 GMV 计,全球市场规模预计 将从 2024 年的 68 亿美元增长至 2035 年的 870 亿美元,复合年增长率达 17.3%。该市场主要分为增材类和非增材类,xTool ...
传媒周观察:模型密集迭代,入口之争火热;春节档电影头部单片亮眼,游戏K型景气度分化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 10:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown significant performance, with the media index rising by 3.5% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.1% [11]. - The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in the gaming sector, with high-end and cost-effective games performing well, while mid-tier games lag behind [8]. - The competition for AI super applications intensified during the Spring Festival, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent vying for market share [30]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The media index increased by 3.5%, achieving a trading volume of 715.2 billion yuan, marking the second-highest trading week in 26 years [11]. - Sub-sectors such as film and television, digital media, and publishing led the gains, with notable individual stock performances, including a 61% increase for Zhangyue Technology [14][11]. AI Spring Festival Special - The report discusses the concentrated iteration of AI models during the Spring Festival, with a focus on multi-modal generation and agent capabilities [26]. - Major internet companies are competing for the "AI super entrance," with significant updates from companies like ByteDance and Alibaba [30][35]. - The report notes that the demand for tokens is increasing, leading to accelerated commercialization of AI models [28]. Film Spring Festival Box Office - The overall box office for the Spring Festival reached 5.752 billion yuan, marking a decline compared to previous years, with a notable drop in audience numbers [8]. - The report identifies a strong performance from top films, with "Flying Life 3" leading the box office and "Biao Ren" breaking records for martial arts films [8]. Gaming Spring Festival Special - The gaming sector exhibited a K-shaped recovery, with high-value and luxury games outperforming others [8]. - Tencent maintained a strong position in the market, with several high DAU products dominating the sales charts [8]. - The report suggests that sports events may catalyze the performance of football games, indicating potential growth areas [8]. Internet Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in AI narratives, with a focus on full-stack AI service providers [25]. - It also notes a potential easing of competition in instant retail, following regulatory discussions with major internet platforms [25].
量化点评报告:中证转债指数调整后修复——二月可转债量化月报
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 10:24
证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 02 26 年 月 日 量化点评报告 中证转债指数调整后修复——二月可转债量化月报 中证转债指数调整后修复,转债市场估值仍较高。截至 2026 年 2 月 13 日,转债市场定价偏离度指标为 14.56%,在 2018 年以来和 2021 年以来 的历史区间内,该指标均处于 99.8%的分位数水平,可转债估值在一月末 经历一波调整后二月逐渐修复,但整体仍处于历史极值区间。中证转债指 数年内上涨 7.02%,走势先扬后抑:一月由估值扩张驱动显著跑赢股指, 但行业分化已现;二月因估值触及历史峰值引发获利盘集中了结,叠加金 价暴跌冲击有色板块,市场连续急跌后进入分化修复阶段。本轮核心驱动 因素在于权益市场联动、黄金等大宗商品剧烈波动及机构资金策略分化。 当前估值处于极高水平,导致转债防御性减弱、波动敏感度上升。策略上 建议保持谨慎、控制回撤,采用" 哑铃型"配置:以中价、大盘、高信用 品种为防御端,同时精选 错杀"个券作为进攻端,耐心等待估值回归。 转债相对于股债组合的配置价值同样较低。由于转债本身弹性低于权益, 转债理论上更加接近于股债组合,且转债正 ...
轻工制造行业专题研究:从极客走向大众:消费级3D打印全民破圈进行时
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 09:29
证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 26 年 月 日 轻工制造 从极客走向大众:消费级 3D 打印全民破圈进行时 如何理解消费级 3D 打印赛道的投资价值?从生命周期看,我们认为赛道 刚刚迈过 0 到 1 的孵化期,正处于 1 到 100 的生长阶段,增长斜率陡峭, 不断受益于供需共振;从属性看,赛道之美体现在"品"为核心驱动力的 模式提升了行业竞争壁垒,龙头受益大。 ➢ 供需拆解:强可选性,产品力仍有迭代空间 需求侧:核心增量价值为即时性&经济性及对情感需求的满足 需求端,3D 打印用户主要有极客玩家、学校&科研机构、小 B 端客户及泛 潮流玩家等。前两者是行业早期核心用户,而后二者是打印机出圈的关键。 对于小 B 用户而言,3D 打印提供的增量价值在于即时性&经济性,而对于 泛潮流玩家,3D 打印的吸引力在于其创造性、社交性、与 IP 的交互性为 用户提供了独一无二的情绪价值,而构建有活力的内容生态是持续的关 键。 ➢ 马太效应显著,高端品仍有降本空间 成本端:低端机 BOM 简单,高端化机型仍有降本空间 一台 3D 打印机主要由五个部分构成:框架结构提供整体支持性; ...
XTool:激光创意方兴未艾,驭光造物龙头引航
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 09:13
证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 26 年 月 日 轻工制造 XTool:激光创意方兴未艾,驭光造物龙头引航 公司概况:全球激光类个人创意工具龙头 xTool 是全球激光类个人创意工具领域的龙头企业,于 2013 年在深圳成 立。按 2025 年前九个月 GMV 计,公司以 37%的份额位居全球激光类个 人创意工具市场首位;在细分的激光雕刻机及切割机市场,其市场份额高 达 47%,是第二大品牌的六倍。公司构建了以激光类工具为核心,材质打 印机、软件及配件耗材协同发展的产品矩阵,并通过免费软件 xTool Studio 与配套耗材销售提升用户粘性与复购。公司收入高度依赖海外市场,2024 年海外收入占比达 97%,全球化特征明显。 行业:科技赋能个人创意工具市场高速成长 科技赋能个人创意工具是利用激光、打印、数控等技术将数字创意转化为 实体产品的设备集群。该市场增长强劲,按 GMV 计,全球市场规模预计 将从 2024 年的 68 亿美元增长至 2035 年的 870 亿美元,复合年增长率达 17.3%。该市场主要分为增材类和非增材类,xTool 的核心业务属于后者 中的 ...
周观察(260209-260220):模型密集迭代,入口之争火热,春节档电影头部单片亮眼,游戏K型景气度分化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 09:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media sector, indicating a strong performance compared to the market, with a 3.5% increase in the media index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.1% [5][11]. Core Insights - The media sector is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in trading volume, reaching 715.2 billion yuan, marking the second-highest trading week in 26 years [5][11]. - The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in the gaming industry, with high-end and cost-effective games performing well, while mid-tier games lag behind [8][11]. - The competition for AI super applications is intensifying among major internet companies, with ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent emerging as key players in the market [6][30]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The media index increased by 3.5%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.1%, with a trading volume of 715.2 billion yuan, the second-highest in 26 years [5][11]. - Sub-sectors such as film and television, digital media, and publishing led the gains, with notable individual stock performances, including a 61% increase for Zhangyue Technology [5][11]. AI Spring Festival Special - The report discusses the concentrated iteration of AI models during the Spring Festival, with a focus on multi-modal generation and agent capabilities [6][26]. - Major internet companies are competing for the "AI super entrance," with significant user engagement and promotional activities during the Spring Festival [30][31]. Film Spring Festival Box Office - The overall box office for the Spring Festival reached 5.752 billion yuan, marking a decline compared to previous years, with a significant drop in audience numbers [8][11]. - The report notes strong performances from top films, with "Flying Life 3" leading the box office and "Biao Ren" breaking records for martial arts films [8][11]. Gaming Spring Festival Special - The gaming sector shows a clear K-shaped recovery, with high-end and cost-effective games thriving, while mid-tier games struggle [8][11]. - Tencent continues to dominate the market with multiple high DAU products, while innovative gameplay and sports events are expected to boost performance in the gaming sector [8][11].