证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 01 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 2026 年铜价展望：宏观与供需平衡共振，牛市有望加速 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后——20251130 【宏观】中央经济工作会议前瞻——20251129 【策略】12 月策略观点与金股推荐——20251130 【策略】一周市场表现与政策事件回顾（11.28 当周）——20251130 【金融工程】风格后续关注高低切——20251130 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值面分数略下降——20251129 【固定收益】年末还有抢跑行情吗？——20251130 【固定收益】月末资金平稳，存单继续大幅净偿还——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20251129 【固定收益】如何看待万科商讨展期对债市冲击——20251128 【海外】海外市场—关注资源品和 AI 应用——20251130 【有色金属】2026 年铜价展望：宏观与供需平衡共振，牛市有望加速— —20251130 【纺织服饰】申洲国际（02313.HK）-坚定长期主义，需求边际改善，龙 头优势凸显——20251130 ◼ 研究 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 作者 宏观点评 PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后 事件：2025 年 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（前值 49.0%）；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（前值 50.1%）。 核心观点：制造业 PMI 已连续 8 个月处于荣枯线下方，本月小幅回升 符合季节性；分项看，供给和外需反弹更多，新出口订单指数明显回 升、主因中美贸易局势短期缓和；服务业 PMI 超季节性回落，主因假 期效应消退、以旧换新政策效果减弱。继续提示：近几个月经济呈现加 速下滑的迹象，但全年"保 5%"有惊无险，短期紧盯 3 大会议：12 月 上中旬政治局会议&中央经济工作会议、对 2026 年政策定调，12.10 美联储议息会议、是否降息很关键。此外，也要关注其它 3 类政策： 我国会否降准降息（预计 2026 年一季度之前大概率会降）；稳地产可 能的组合拳；短期政策接续，包括四季度政策性金融工具、结存限额下 拨、重启买卖国债等政策的效果，各部门对 2026 年以旧换新、谋划新 一批重大项目的"吹风"等。 2、分项看，关注供需端、贸易端、价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the space computing sector [5]. Core Insights - The emergence of space computing is expected to revolutionize data processing capabilities, with companies like Nvidia and Starcloud leading the charge by deploying AI servers in space [1][9]. - Elon Musk predicts that deploying large-scale AI systems in space will be more cost-effective than on Earth due to the availability of free solar energy and efficient cooling methods [2][14]. - Google's "Project Suncatcher" aims to utilize solar energy in space for scalable computing networks, with plans to launch prototype satellites by 2027 [3][18]. - China's launch of the "Body Computing Constellation" marks a significant milestone as the world's first interconnected space computing satellite constellation, expected to achieve a total computing power of 1000 Peta Operations Per Second (POPS) [4][22]. Summary by Sections Space Computing Developments - Nvidia's Starcloud-1 satellite, equipped with H100 GPUs, is set to operate in low Earth orbit, processing data from Earth observation satellites [1][9]. - Starcloud plans to expand its capabilities with the Starcloud-2 mission, which will include more powerful GPUs and aim for a 40 MW data center in space by the early 2030s [11]. Cost Efficiency and Energy Needs - Musk estimates that future AI computing needs could require between 200 to 300 GW of continuous power, highlighting the limitations of terrestrial energy sources [2][14]. - The report emphasizes that the transition to space-based data centers could alleviate the increasing energy and water demands of traditional data centers [10]. Industry Growth and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that as AI computing demands rise and rocket launch costs decrease, significant growth in space computing is anticipated, recommending early investment in related companies such as Putian Technology and China Satellite [24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The trend of pig reduction continues, suggesting a strategic opportunity for participation in the sector [15][16] - The price of lean meat pigs as of November 28, 2025, is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from the previous month, indicating ongoing industry losses [15][18] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head from the previous month, while the profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [15][23] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, and further production capacity reduction is expected due to policy and low prices [15][16] - The mushroom sector shows a sustained price rebound for enoki mushrooms, with strong performance expected from key companies [16] - The seed industry is seeing a clear trend of variety replacement, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales, indicating potential growth for related companies [16] - In poultry farming, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are noted for yellow feathered chickens, while white feathered chickens are affected by avian influenza in Europe [17] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The lean meat pig price is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from last month [18] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 CNY/kg, down 1.1% [18] - The profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head [23] - The profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [23] Mushroom Sector - Enoki mushroom prices remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound [16] - The release period for Cordyceps sinensis as a key new product is approaching, with strong performance expected [16] Seed Industry - A clear trend of variety replacement in corn is noted, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales [16] - Companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for potential growth [16] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken chicks is 3.47 CNY/chick, down 3.1% from last month [28] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.19 CNY/kg, up 1.4% [32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.95 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [32] Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices increased to 2329.8 CNY/ton, up 4.0% [44] - Domestic wheat prices rose to 2507.28 CNY/ton, up 0.7% [46] - Domestic soybean prices increased to 4014.74 CNY/ton, up 0.4% [57]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 乐舒适招股书拆解：非洲卫生用品龙头，受益新兴市场高增长机遇 1. 乐舒适招股书拆解：非洲卫生用品龙头，受益新兴市场高增长机遇 概况：非洲卫生用品行业领军企业。（1）发展历程：2009 年公司作为森 大集团内部业务分部开展业务，2009-18 年陆续完善品牌矩阵，目前有 Softcare（（心品品牌） Veesper（（对秘鲁等拉美市市场品品牌），及 Maya Cuettie Clincleer（为大众市场量身打造品品牌），并相继进入西非 东 非拉市场；2018 年公司在加纳开始本地化生产，目前已在 8 个非洲国家 1 个美丁市洲国家设立了生产工厂，通过（ 本地产 本地销 "经营模式 缩短销售链路。2022 年公司在开曼群岛注册为获豁免有限公司，自森大 集团分拆相关业务。2025 年 11 月 10 日公司在港交所主板上市。（2）业 绩：公司收入由 2022 年品 3.2 亿市元提升至 2024 年品 4.54 亿市元，经 调整净利润由 0.18 亿市元提升至 0.98 亿市元，2022-24 收入/经调整净利 润 CAGR ...

固定收益定期 年末还有抢跑行情吗？ 本周债市再度出现调整。本周10年和30年国债利率分别上升2.5bps和2.7bps 至 1.84%和 2.19%。3 年和 5 年二级资本债分别上行 5.5bps 和 3.2bps。1 年 AAA 存单利率相较上周小幅上升 0.5bps 至 1.64%。 债市调整背后依然是机构行为变化的结果。一方面，银行年末面临指标压力与 兑现浮盈需求，配置力量不足；另一方面，公募基金费率改革等影响之下，公 募基金被动赎回带来抛压短期增加。叠加券商等部分交易性机构助推市场趋 势，市场出现调整。但这种调整是否会持续呢，特别是临近年末，往年多次发 生的"抢跑"行情是否会再度发生呢？ 往年 12 月债市多季节性走强，债市呈现出较为稳定的"抢跑"特征。过去 5 年，12 月债市基本上都是走强的，2020-2024 年无一例外，10 年国债利率在 12 月均是下行的，平均下行 14.0bps，其中 2024 年下行幅度最大为 34.5bps， 即使不考虑 2024 年，2020-2023 年也平均下行 8.9bps。年末多次发生抢跑效 应，这个不仅在债券牛市中发生，如 2021 年和 2024 年末 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [5]. Core Views - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic breakthrough in silver prices due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts and inventory depletion, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][36]. - The copper industry is seeing a deepening of the anti-involution trend in smelting, with a consensus reached among CSPT members to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026 [2]. - The lithium market is characterized by mixed factors, with prices fluctuating and strong demand expectations, particularly in energy storage [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market is betting on a 12% interest rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 71% to 86.4% [1]. - Silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to 559 tons by November 30, down 633 tons from October 8, leading to a risk of short squeeze [1][36]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, with Chinese inventory down by 3.1 thousand tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: New production capacity in Xinjiang is coming online, while demand remains stable despite high prices [2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with supply remaining relatively loose [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3.5% to 96,000 yuan/ton, with production slightly down by 1% [3]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are high due to delays in export approvals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with domestic prices for electrolytic cobalt rising to 403,000 yuan/ton [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others are highlighted as key investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [6][7]. Core Insights - The initiation of the commercial real estate REITs pilot program by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks a significant development, suggesting an expansion of public REITs' underlying assets and a new phase for the REITs market in China [1][11]. - The overall performance of the C-REITs market has shown a slight decline, with the CSI REITs closing index down by 0.14% to 809.1 points as of November 28, 2025, while the full return index decreased by 0.08% to 1040.3 points [2][12]. - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 219.44 billion yuan, with an average market value of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [3][14]. Summary by Sections REITs Events - On November 28, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission publicly solicited opinions on the draft announcement for the commercial real estate REITs pilot program, aimed at enhancing the quality of the REITs market and supporting a new model for real estate development [1][11]. REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs full return index has increased by 7.49% year-to-date, while the closing index has risen by 2.47% [2][12]. REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has experienced a general pullback, with 35 REITs rising and 41 falling during the week, resulting in an average weekly decline of 0.2% [3][14]. - The data center and affordable housing sectors performed well, while industrial parks and ecological environmental sectors saw declines [3][14]. REITs Trading Activity - The affordable housing sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1.681 million shares and a turnover rate of 0.6% [4][17]. REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.5%, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.4%, and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT at 8.7% [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment strategies: 1. Emphasizing policy-driven themes and quality undervalued projects with recovery potential [6]. 2. Recognizing the market's acknowledgment of the dividend attributes of weak-cycle assets, while considering timing based on asset resilience and market prices [6]. 3. Monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances, particularly those with ample asset reserves and quality projects [6].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 电力设备 发改委治理价格无序竞争，龙蟠科技签订 130 万吨铁锂订单 光伏：国家发改委召开价格无序竞争座谈会，制定成本认定标准。11 月 24 日， 国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争 成本认定标准等相关工作。会议指出，目前部分行业价格无序竞争问题仍然突出， 一些企业对规范价格竞争行为的要求落实不到位，甚至依然存在扰乱市场价格秩 序的行为。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治理企业价格无 序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。这有助于光伏产业链各环节价 格回归理性，行业实现可持续发展。核心关注三大方向：1）供给侧改革下的产业 链涨价机会，核心关注通威股份、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、晶科能源、天合光能等； 2）新技术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注迈为股份、爱旭股份、聚和 材料等；3）钙钛矿 GW 级布局带来的产业化机会，核心关注金晶科技、万润股份、 捷佳伟创、帝尔激光、京山轻机、德龙激光、曼恩斯特等。 风电&电网：丹麦 2.8GW 海上风电项目启动招标，青桂直流、南通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced new pricing regulations for power transmission and distribution, which will promote the development of green electricity. The new regulations focus on local consumption and cross-province transmission, facilitating the utilization of renewable energy and enhancing the efficiency of power grid companies [2][13] - The exploration of a two-part or capacity-based pricing system for cross-province and cross-region projects will stabilize the revenue from clean energy transmission and improve the utilization rate of high-voltage channels [3][14] - Multiple provinces are rolling out market-oriented trading plans for 2026, which will accelerate the transformation of the electricity market by mandating a high proportion of long-term contracts and ensuring that coal-fired power trading prices fluctuate within a specified range [8][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the positive impact of new transmission and distribution pricing regulations on renewable energy consumption and the introduction of market-oriented trading plans for 2026 [2][8] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, up 1.4%, while the CSI 300 Index rose 1.64% to 4,526.66 points. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index increased by 0.88%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [63][64] Key Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on flexible resources such as thermal power and investment opportunities in energy storage and virtual power plants. Specific stocks highlighted include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [8][9]