Group 1: Construction Materials - The completion end of construction materials is expected to reach a long-term turning point in 2026, driven by factors such as a narrowing decline in new housing completions, improving second-hand housing transaction volumes, and a significant increase in the stock of homes entering the renovation cycle [1][10][20] - The demand structure has been significantly impacted by economic pressures, leading to a delay in renovation needs, but positive changes are anticipated in the future, with a dual positive shift expected in the industry due to continuous supply contraction [1][21][33] - The glass supply is notably shrinking, approaching a supply-demand balance, with a focus on price elasticity in 2026, highlighting the importance of companies like Qibin Group [1][43] Group 2: Construction Start Materials - Profit recovery in the construction start materials sector is underway, but further policy support is needed for a sustained trend. The demand for construction starts is primarily driven by new real estate projects and infrastructure [2][14] - The cement industry has seen a significant exit of over 160 million tons of actual capacity, leading to a relatively stable price environment and improved profit margins for companies with cost advantages, such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [2][33] Group 3: New Materials - The report emphasizes the potential of electronic yarn, carbon fiber, and TCO glass. The electronic yarn sector is experiencing price increases due to high demand driven by the AI industry [3][17] - Carbon fiber demand is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the wind energy sector and aerospace applications, with companies like Zhongfu Shenying being highlighted for their growth potential [3][20] - TCO glass is entering a commercial application phase, with significant production capacity planned by companies such as BOE Technology and JinkoSolar, indicating a strong future demand for this material [3][23] Group 4: Key Investment Targets - Key investment targets include companies like Sankeshu (603737.SH), Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), and Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ), with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential for investment [6][7] - The report maintains a buy rating for companies like China Jushi (600176.SH) and Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH), reflecting confidence in their growth prospects in the new materials sector [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and Chalco [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations in macro sentiment, the long-term bullish trend for non-ferrous metals remains intact. The Chinese central bank's increased gold purchases in January have provided a strong boost to precious metals [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of copper reserves, suggesting that the Chinese government is looking to expand its copper strategic reserve system [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with a stable production capacity but increasing social inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to a cooling macro sentiment, with significant price drops observed in recent weeks [5]. - The report notes that tin prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Lithium prices have seen a decline, with ongoing inventory reduction, while cobalt prices are also under pressure as trading activity weakens ahead of the holiday season [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In January, the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases from 0.93 tons to 1.24 tons, injecting confidence into the precious metals market. The largest silver ETF also saw a significant increase in holdings, indicating long-term investor confidence [2][41]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report stresses the importance of copper strategic reserves, with a recent increase in global copper inventories. The Chinese government is exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is facing short-term price volatility due to geopolitical issues and macroeconomic policies, with production capacity remaining stable but social inventories increasing [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have dropped significantly, with SHFE nickel falling 5.8% to 132,000 CNY/ton due to cooling macro sentiment [5]. - **Tin**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to remain volatile [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report indicates a decline in lithium prices, with carbonate prices dropping 13.2% to 138,000 CNY/ton. Inventory levels are also decreasing [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are under pressure, with a 6.3% drop in domestic electrolytic cobalt prices to 410,000 CNY/ton as trading activity slows [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 07 年 月 日 房地产开发 投资建议 我们认为当下投资策略主要有三条主线：1）建议关注政策主题下的弹性 及优质低估值项目的配置时机：关注高能级城市消费在扩内需主题下的增 长弹性叠加专业运营创造的管理溢价；关注高速及 IDC 类资产在二级回调 后的价值重构；办公及仓储类租赁需求相对疲软，或仍需等待经济复苏的 明确信号激活。2）保障房等弱周期资产其红利配置属性已被市场认可，但 当下价格已反映市场预期，建议结合资产韧性、二级市场价格与 P/NAV 择 时布局。3）我国 REITs 扩募已与新发并行，关注扩募资产储备充足、项 目优质的原始权益人其后续龙头效益。 C-REITs 周报——双轨并行，商业不动产 REITs 密集上报 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数下跌 0.91%。截至 2.6，本周（1.30-2.6， 下同）中证 REITs(收盘)指数下跌 0.91%，收于 802.2 点；中证 REITs 全 收益指数下跌 0.91%，收于 1042.8 点。本周沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期 国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction and China Railway Construction [4][17]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a stabilization in expectations due to positive policy catalysts since the beginning of 2026, with a focus on stabilizing expectations, reducing costs, enhancing guarantees, and promoting transformation [10][4]. - Key policies include tax exemptions on housing sales after two years, reduced mortgage rates, and relaxed financing regulations, which are expected to stimulate demand and improve market conditions [10][4]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in China increased by 0.18% month-on-month and 2.52% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating marginal improvement in sales prices [2][11]. - The transaction volume of second-hand houses in 13 monitored cities rose by 16% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year in January 2026, suggesting a recovery in market activity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the real estate sector has seen a significant decline in key metrics, with investment, sales area, and sales amount dropping by 44% to 74% from their peak values, reaching historical lows [2][14]. - It is anticipated that the decline in these metrics will narrow, leading to a gradual bottoming out of the industry [13][2]. Company Analysis - Major construction companies like China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and Shanghai Construction are expected to benefit directly from the recovery in real estate sales, which will drive profit and valuation recovery [3][15]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate business accounts for a significant portion of these companies' revenues and assets, with China State Construction's real estate revenue accounting for 12% and gross profit for 20% [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the construction and decoration sectors, including China State Construction (PE 4.4X, dividend yield 5.5%), China Railway Construction (PE 4.6X, dividend yield 4.0%), and Shanghai Construction (PE 13X) [4][17]. - Other notable mentions include decoration leader Jin Tanglong (PE 16X) and design leader Huayang International (PE 22X) [4][17].

- The "Timing Radar Six-Facet Chart" is a multi-dimensional timing framework that evaluates equity market performance based on liquidity, economic conditions, valuation, capital flow, technical trends, and crowding metrics. It aggregates 21 indicators into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score ranging from [-1,1] [1][6][8] - Liquidity factors include "Monetary Direction Factor," which calculates the average change in monetary policy rates and short-term market rates over 90 days. A positive value indicates monetary easing, scoring 1 this week [10][11]. The "Monetary Strength Factor" uses the deviation of DR007 from the 7-year reverse repo rate, smoothed and standardized. This week, it scored 0, indicating a neutral signal [12][13]. The "Credit Direction Factor" evaluates the trend of medium-to-long-term loans over 12 months. A positive trend scores 1, which was observed this week [15][16]. The "Credit Strength Factor" measures the deviation of new RMB loans from expectations. This week, it scored -1, signaling a significant underperformance [18][19] - Economic factors include "Growth Direction Factor," derived from PMI data (manufacturing and non-manufacturing), calculating the 12-month average and year-over-year change. A downward trend scored -1 this week [20][21]. The "Growth Strength Factor" measures PMI deviations from expectations. This week, it scored -1, indicating significant underperformance [23][24]. The "Inflation Direction Factor" combines CPI and PPI data to assess inflation trends. An upward trend scored -1 this week [25][26]. The "Inflation Strength Factor" calculates CPI and PPI deviations from expectations. This week, it scored 0, indicating a neutral signal [27][31] - Valuation factors include "Shiller ERP," calculated as 1/Shiller PE minus the 10-year government bond yield, standardized over six years. This week, it scored -0.04, slightly improving [28][29]. The "PB Factor" uses the price-to-book ratio, standardized over six years, and scored -0.66 this week, showing a slight increase [32][33]. The "AIAE Factor" measures equity allocation relative to total market capitalization and debt, standardized over six years. This week, it remained at -1.00 [34][35] - Capital flow factors include "Margin Financing Increment," which compares the 120-day average increase in margin financing to the 240-day average. A positive trend scored 1 this week [37][39]. The "Trading Volume Trend" evaluates the logarithmic moving average distance of trading volume over 120 and 240 days. A positive trend scored 1 this week [40][42]. External capital flow indicators include "China Sovereign CDS Spread," which assesses the 20-day differential of CDS spreads. A positive differential scored -1 this week [44][45]. The "Overseas Risk Aversion Index" evaluates the 20-day differential of Citi RAI Index. A positive differential scored -1 this week [46][47] - Technical factors include "Price Trend," which uses moving average distances (120/240 days) to assess market trends and strength. This week, it scored 1, indicating a positive trend [49][50]. The "New Highs and Lows" metric evaluates the difference between new highs and lows among index constituents over the past year. A positive difference scored -1 this week [51][53] - Crowding metrics include "Option Implied Premium," derived from the implied premium in options markets. A positive signal scored -1 this week [55][59]. The "Option VIX Index" measures implied volatility expectations. A positive signal scored 1 this week [56][57]. The "Option SKEW Index" evaluates implied skewness in options markets. A positive signal scored -1 this week [60][62]. The "Convertible Bond Pricing Deviation" measures the deviation of convertible bond prices from model estimates, standardized over three years. A positive deviation scored -1 this week [63][64] - Composite timing score for this week is -0.30, indicating a neutral-to-bearish outlook [6][8][9]

黑龙江绿色甲醇与电解槽项目进入实施阶段，特斯拉官宣干电极工艺量产 光伏：硅片价格下跌，电池价格保持稳定。据安泰科，本周多晶硅主流产品无公开报价、无 实际成交。据 Infolink，硅片市场延续上周走弱态势，整体仍处于价格下探阶段。各尺寸硅 片价格普遍承压，市场价格重心进一步下移。N 型电池片价格方面，本周 183N、210RN、 210N 型号均价持稳于 0.45 元/W，价格区间维持 0.43-0.45 元/W。尽管此前银价冲高回落 带动市场形成电池片降价预期，但当前实体白银现货供给偏紧，厂家采购仍需加价，头部企 业报价暂未调整，继续维持 0.45 元/W 的主流水平。组件市场受银价波动传导，成本端呈现 起伏态势，各组件厂基于自身成本核算调整报价。本周国内分布式组件公开报价区间为 0.80- 0.88 元/W，实际成交价格则下探至 0.75-0.80 元/W；TOPCon 组件公示价格保持稳定，国内 均价 0.739 元/W，分布式实际成交均价 0.76 元/W。核心关注：1）供给侧改革下的产业链 涨价机会，核心关注通威股份、协鑫科技、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、晶科能源、天合光能等； 2）新技术背景下带来的中长期 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 07 年 月 日 钢铁 惊涛之后 行情回顾（2.2-2.6）： 铁水产量增加，库存增幅扩大。本周全国高炉产能利用率回升，国内 247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率为 85.7%，环比+0.3pct，同比-0.1pct；五大品种 钢材周产量为 819.9 万吨，环比-0.4%，同比+1.4%；本周长流程产量增 加，日均铁水产量增 0.7 万吨至 228.6 万吨，钢材产量小幅下降，螺纹 钢产量降幅明显；库存方面，本周五大品种钢材周社会库存为 940.4 万吨， 环比+5.6%，同比-18.0%，钢厂库存为 397.3 万吨，环比+2.5%，同比- 24.1%；钢材总库存增幅扩大，周环比增加 4.6%，较上周增幅扩大 2.9pct，社会库存增幅大于钢厂库存；本周由产量与总库存数据汇总后的 五大品种钢材周表观消费 760.7 万吨，环比-5.1%，同比+22.3%，其中螺 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 钢铁 沪深300 作者 分析师 笃慧 执业证书编 ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 通信 光模块逻辑的背离与收敛 市场近期关于 CPO（共封装光学）技术将快速取代可插拔光模块的过 度担忧，背离了产业发展的基本面，在未来两至三年，乃至更长时间 内，可插拔光模块仍将是数据中心光互连的主流解决方案。市场担忧 和筹码结构集中需时间消化，长期来看市场终将回归业绩基本面主导 的共识。 【预期差纠偏：市场"焦虑"的起源与误读】 英伟达宣布将于今年规模部署 CPO 技术，市场普遍担忧 CPO 技术将 快速全面地取代可插拔光模块。这种过度担忧脱离了行业发展的基本 面，是对 CPO 技术的误读，导致市场估值出现非理性分化。 【筹码结构：过度集中与结构优化】 当前光模块板块筹码结构过于集中，需要时间进行结构优化与自我修 正。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% 4% 28% 52% 76% 100% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 通信 沪深300 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680519010002 邮箱：songjiaji@gszq.com 分析师 黄瀚 执业证书编号：S0680519 ...