Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.735 billion to 3.282 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [1]. - The company's Q4 2025 net profit is projected to be between 1.529 billion and 2.076 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.5% to 77.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 117.2% to 194.9% [1]. - The increase in user activity on the company's website and app, along with the growing demand from financial clients, has led to a rise in advertising and internet promotion service revenue [1]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened in 2025 has exceeded that of 2024, reaching 27.44 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2]. - The A-share trading volume for 2025 is expected to grow by 63.3% year-on-year, reaching 420 trillion yuan [2]. - The company is investing in artificial intelligence and has developed a benchmark for evaluating large language models in financial scenarios, enhancing its product competitiveness [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.458 billion, 8.303 billion, and 10.299 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.972 billion, 3.925 billion, and 4.991 billion yuan [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 5.53 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 64.7 [5][6].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 21 年 月 日 安踏体育（02020.HK） 2025 年公司经营稳健，关注长期多品牌表现 其他品牌：流水保持高速增长，集团多品牌孵化以及运营能力卓越。2025Q4 其他 品牌流水增速为 35%~40%，长期来看，我们判断迪桑特和可隆在高端户外领域 已经逐步建立起强劲的品牌力，面对国内户外运动赛道的持续快速增长迪桑特和 可隆市占率有望稳步提升。我们判断 Maia Active 目前各项调整顺利，预计 2025Q4 也有优异的增长表现。 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 20 日收盘价 事件：安踏体育发布 2025Q4 经营情况公告，安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数（（ 年增长低单位数），Fila 品牌流水同比增长中单位数（ 年增长中单位数），其他 品牌流水同比增长 35%~40%（ 年增长 45%~50%），整体表现符合预期。 2025 年我们预计公司归母净利润 132 亿元左右，展望 2026 年我们预计公司收 入增长 10%+，归母净利率或有小幅下降。基于 年的经营表现，我们预计公司 2025 年营收增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.735 billion to 3.282 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [1] - The company anticipates a significant increase in user activity on its website and app, driven by the expansion into lifestyle, consumption, and technology clients, as well as increased demand from financial clients such as securities and funds [1] - The report highlights the company's ongoing investment in artificial intelligence and the development of a large language model evaluation benchmark specifically designed for financial scenarios, which is expected to enhance product competitiveness and user experience [3] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 6.458 billion yuan, 8.303 billion yuan, and 10.299 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 2.972 billion yuan, 3.925 billion yuan, and 4.991 billion yuan for the same years [3][5] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 54.2% in 2025, 28.6% in 2026, and 24.0% in 2027 [5] - The report indicates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 5.53 yuan in 2025, 7.30 yuan in 2026, and 9.28 yuan in 2027 [5] Market Trends - The number of new A-share accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has exceeded 27.44 million in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2] - The trading volume of A-shares is expected to grow by 63.3% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 420 trillion yuan [2] - The report suggests that the company, as a leader in financial traffic, is likely to benefit from the ongoing bull market [2]

2025 年公司经营稳健，关注长期多品牌表现 事件：安踏体育发布 2025Q4 经营情况公告，安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数（（ 年增长低单位数），Fila 品牌流水同比增长中单位数（ 年增长中单位数），其他 品牌流水同比增长 35%~40%（ 年增长 45%~50%），整体表现符合预期。 安踏品牌：短期消费环境波动叠加春节滞后等因素，Q4 安踏流水波动，库存质量 预计仍然健康。2025Q4 安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数，我们判断 Q4 安踏流水 波动一方面原因系 Q4 国内消费环境较弱，另一方面原因系 2026 年春节较晚导致 了年货消费滞后。分渠道来看，我们判断电商销售或略有增长，延续 2025 年前三 季度的表现；线下渠道中我们判断童装销售压力对比成人或较大，主要原因系童 装销售的假期属性更强。营运方面，我们预计截至 2025Q4 末安踏品牌库销比略 高于 5，整体处于健康水平。 展望 2026 年：我们判断电商业务销售对比 2025 年或有望改善，同时线下渠道持 续推进差异化门店建设（包括安踏冠军店、灯塔店等），产品端继续发力 PG7 系列 产品、马赫系列以及竞速 C 系列，多举措下有望提振安踏品牌表现 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 01 21 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 "天量"居民存款到期，影响几何？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】"天量"居民存款到期，影响几何？——20260120 ◼ 研究视点 【基础化工】SiC 价格触底，SST 贡献新增长引擎——20260120 【煤炭】25 年产量微增、进口减、需求弱，26 年关注美国、印尼煤炭市 场机会——20260120 【能源】2025 年全社会用电增速 5%，12 月火电发电降幅收窄 —— 20260120 【纺织服饰】安踏体育（02020.HK）-2025 年公司经营稳健，关注长期 多品牌表现——20260121 【计算机】同花顺（300033.SZ）-年报业绩超预期，金融终端领军持续 受益市场 Beta——20260121 【食品饮料】燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）-25 年业绩亮眼，26 年持续突破— —20260120 作者 | 分析师 杨润思 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680520030005 | | | | | 邮箱：yangrunsi@gszq.c ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The maturity scale of long-term deposits for residents and enterprises in 2026 is estimated at CNY 58.3 trillion, an increase of CNY 5.6 trillion compared to 2025[1] - Among this, the maturity scale for the resident sector is CNY 37.9 trillion, up CNY 4.3 trillion from 2025, marking the highest level in five years[3] - In 2026, 54% of the total deposits will mature in the first quarter, with over 60% of resident deposits maturing in the same period[5] Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The re-pricing of maturing deposits is expected to reduce banks' liability costs by approximately CNY 550 billion, leading to a 31 basis point decrease in interest rates paid by banks[6] - However, the potential "deposit migration" could disrupt the stability of banks' liabilities, necessitating close monitoring of the reallocation of deposits[6] Group 3: Asset Market Implications - The large-scale maturity of deposits is likely to bring incremental funds to the equity market, potentially benefiting the stock market, especially during the first quarter[7] - The impact on the bond market remains uncertain, as the actual allocation of funds will depend on the speed of credit decline and the relative speed of deposit outflows[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [10]. Core Insights - The coal production in December 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 1%, with a total output of 440 million tons. The annual output for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, reflecting a 1.2% increase compared to the previous year. For 2026, the domestic thermal coal production is expected to increase by only 20-30 million tons to 3.85 billion tons, representing a growth of approximately 0.6% [1][13]. - Coal imports in December 2025 increased by 11.94% year-on-year, totaling 58.597 million tons. However, the total imports for the year were 49.027 million tons, a decline of 9.6% compared to 2024. The report anticipates stable coal import levels in 2026, with significant attention on potential changes from the U.S. and Indonesia [2][17][18]. - The report highlights a 3.2% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation in December 2025, with total industrial power generation for the year increasing by 2.2%. The decline in thermal power generation is contrasted with growth in renewable energy sources, although their growth rates have slowed [3][21]. Summary by Sections Production - December coal production decreased by 1% year-on-year, with a total of 440 million tons produced. The daily average production was 14.1 million tons, and the total for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, up 1.2% from 2024. The report predicts strict policies will continue into 2026, limiting production increases primarily to new mines [1][13]. Imports - December coal imports rose by 11.94% year-on-year to 58.597 million tons, with a monthly increase of 33.01% from November. The total imports for 2025 were 49.027 million tons, down 9.6% from the previous year. The report expects stable import levels in 2026, with a focus on U.S. and Indonesian market dynamics [2][17][18]. Demand - December thermal power generation fell by 3.2% year-on-year, while total industrial power generation saw a slight increase of 0.1%. The report notes that while thermal power generation declined, renewable energy sources experienced growth, albeit at a slower pace [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electricity sector, with a projected growth rate of 5% in total electricity consumption for 2025 [8][10]. Core Insights - Total electricity consumption in 2025 is expected to reach 103,682 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [8][10]. - In December, total electricity consumption was 9,080 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [8]. - The contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption to the growth of total electricity consumption is projected to reach 50% in 2025 [10]. - The electricity consumption growth rates for different sectors in 2025 are as follows: primary industry at 1,494 billion kWh (9.9% growth), secondary industry at 66,366 billion kWh (3.7% growth), tertiary industry at 19,942 billion kWh (8.2% growth), and urban-rural residential consumption at 15,880 billion kWh (6.3% growth) [10]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The demand for electricity is driven significantly by the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential sectors, with notable growth in the charging and battery swapping services, as well as information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 48.8% and 17.0% respectively [10][13]. Supply Side - In December, the decline in thermal power generation narrowed, while the growth rates of other power sources slowed down. The total industrial power generation in December was 8,586 billion kWh, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [27]. - The year-on-year decline in industrial thermal power was 3.2%, which is a narrowing of 1.0 percentage points compared to November. Other power sources such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar also experienced slowed growth rates [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electricity integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Datang Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Shaanxi Energy [49]. - It also suggests paying attention to wind and solar sectors, including Xintian Green Energy, Longyuan Power, and Zhongmin Energy. For gas sectors, it highlights quality leaders like Chengran, New Hope Energy, Kunlun Energy, and China Resources Gas [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [10][36]. Core Insights - The coal production in December 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decline of 1%, with a total output of 440 million tons. The annual production for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 1.2% compared to the previous year. For 2026, the domestic thermal coal production is expected to increase by only 20-30 million tons, reaching 3.85 billion tons, which is a growth of approximately 0.6% [1][13]. - Coal imports in December 2025 increased by 11.94% year-on-year, totaling 58.597 million tons. However, the total imports for the year were 49.027 million tons, a decrease of 9.6% compared to 2024. The report anticipates stable coal import levels in 2026, with significant attention on potential changes from the U.S. and Indonesia [2][17][21]. - The report highlights a 3.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in December 2025, with total industrial power generation showing a marginal increase of 0.1%. The overall industrial power generation for the year was 971.59 billion kWh, up 2.2% from 2024 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Production - December coal production decreased by 1% year-on-year, with a total of 440 million tons produced. The daily average production was 14.1 million tons, and the total for 2025 was 4.83 billion tons, up 1.2% [1][13][14]. Imports - December coal imports rose by 11.94% year-on-year, amounting to 58.597 million tons. The total imports for 2025 were 49.027 million tons, down 9.6% from the previous year. The report expects stable import levels in 2026, with a focus on U.S. and Indonesian market dynamics [2][17][21]. Demand - Thermal power generation in December 2025 fell by 3.2% year-on-year, while total industrial power generation increased slightly by 0.1%. The total for the year was 971.59 billion kWh, reflecting a 2.2% increase from 2024 [3][22].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the power industry, with an investment rating of "Buy" for companies with high dividend yields and stable electricity prices, as well as for integrated coal and electricity enterprises [3][49]. Core Insights - The total electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative electricity consumption of 10,368.2 billion kWh from January to December, and a December consumption of 908 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.77% [8][10]. - The contribution of the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity consumption to the growth of total electricity consumption is expected to reach 50%, driven significantly by the charging and swapping service industry, as well as the information transmission, software, and IT service sectors [10][13]. - In December, the decline in thermal power generation narrowed, while the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power all slowed down. The industrial thermal power generation decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in November [2][34]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In 2025, the first industry is expected to consume 149.4 billion kWh, growing by 9.9% year-on-year; the second industry is projected to consume 6,636.6 billion kWh, with a growth of 3.7%; the third industry is anticipated to consume 1,994.2 billion kWh, growing by 8.2%; and urban-rural residential electricity consumption is expected to reach 158.8 billion kWh, increasing by 6.3% [10][8]. - The charging and swapping service industry and the information transmission, software, and IT service sectors are expected to see electricity consumption growth rates of 48.8% and 17.0%, respectively, contributing significantly to the growth of the tertiary industry [10][13]. Power Generation - In December, the total industrial power generation was 858.6 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, and an average daily generation of 27.7 billion kWh. For the entire year, the total industrial power generation reached 9,715.9 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 2.2% [2][27]. - The growth rates for various power generation types in December were as follows: hydropower increased by 4.1%, nuclear power by 3.1%, wind power by 8.9%, and solar power by 18.2%, all showing a slowdown compared to November [34][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading thermal power companies with high dividend yields and stable electricity prices, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, Datang Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Shaanxi Energy. It also suggests looking at companies involved in flexible thermal power transformation and the wind and solar sectors [3][49].