证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 社会服务 春节旺季在即，重视服务消费与商品消费 即将步入"史上最长春节假期"，考虑到节日消费传统与新兴消费趋势，我 们建议重视与春节相关的消费子板块，包括免税、出行链（景区酒店餐饮）、 茶饮（红包受益）、黄金珠宝、商超。 免税：海南离岛免税春节有望持续强劲。据海口海关统计，2026 年 1 月， 海南离岛免税购物金额 45.3 亿元，购物人数 56.0 万人次，购物数量 336.7 万件，同比分别增长 44.8%、21.0%和 14.0%。根据同程旅行数据，截至 1 月 27 日，海南省春节酒店整体预订热度同比上涨 191%，其中，海口、 三亚、陵水春节酒店预订热度分别同比涨超 227%、167%和 169%。预计 海南离岛免税行业景气趋势在春节旺季仍将保持强劲。 执业证书编号：S0680525110003 邮箱：maohongyi@gszq.com 出行链：长假+普惠政策，最长春节有望迎最热表现。据同程旅行，较长 假期将推动 26 年春节出游人群比例提升，逐步接近返乡大军比例。在休 闲度假、探亲访友、返乡团圆等多元需求的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the stock trading software industry, indicating a bullish market trend and recommending a focus on leading companies in this sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings and trading volumes, which are directly benefiting stock trading software companies. In January 2026, new account openings surged by 213.11% year-on-year, while total trading volume increased by 180.64% [9][10]. - The performance of stock trading software is closely correlated with market conditions, particularly during bull markets. For instance, the net profit of Tonghuashun in Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 30.5% to 77.1% year-on-year, driven by increased trading activity [10][28]. - The report emphasizes the role of ETFs, insurance capital, and household deposits as new growth drivers for the market, suggesting that these factors will support further index gains in 2026 [2][26]. Summary by Sections Stock Trading Software Performance - Tonghuashun is identified as a market leader benefiting from increased user engagement and demand for financial services, with projected net profits for Q4 2025 ranging from 15.29 to 20.76 billion yuan [28][29]. - Dongfang Caifu's securities business is noted as a primary growth driver, with a 50.57% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [32]. - Jiufang Zhitu's revenue for the first half of 2025 saw a remarkable growth of 596.81%, attributed to a surge in demand for its financial software and services [37]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the insurance industry is experiencing robust growth, with total assets increasing by 15.1% year-on-year in 2025, which is expected to enhance the investment landscape [17][19]. - The report also notes a shift in household deposits, with a significant slowdown in growth observed in late 2025, suggesting potential implications for market liquidity [22][26]. - The anticipated continued liquidity in 2026, supported by a moderately loose monetary policy, is expected to further enhance market attractiveness [26]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players such as Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, Jiufang Zhitu, and others, indicating their strong market positions and growth potential [43].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the strong performance of leading brands like Moutai during the upcoming Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the liquor sector is experiencing a recovery driven by seasonal demand, with Moutai leading the way in sales and pricing improvements. The anticipated increase in social consumption due to the extended Spring Festival holiday in 2026 is expected to further boost demand [2]. - In the beer and beverage segment, Chongqing Beer is projected to achieve stable growth in 2025, with revenue expected to reach 14.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The company is actively expanding its product offerings and optimizing its market strategy [3]. - The report notes that the food sector is benefiting from a delayed Spring Festival, which is likely to enhance sales of snacks and dairy products, particularly those with gifting attributes [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival season is expected to catalyze sales, with Moutai showing strong performance and leading the market recovery. The brand's effective customer engagement strategies have resulted in significant user growth and order volume [2]. - The report anticipates that the overall liquor market will see a positive turnaround, supported by favorable policies and improved consumer sentiment [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.72 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.4% increase year-on-year. The company is focusing on expanding its non-alcoholic beverage channels and enhancing its product mix [3]. - East Peng Beverage's recent IPO and its strategic partnership for international expansion are highlighted as significant developments in the beverage sector [3]. Food Sector - The report indicates that the delayed Spring Festival in 2026 will create opportunities for growth in the snack and dairy product categories, particularly those with gifting potential. The low base effect from the previous year is expected to facilitate a strong start for these products [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the stock trading software industry, highlighting it as a "bull market pioneer" and recommending a focus on specific companies within this sector [4][43]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a significant increase in new account openings and trading volumes, which are directly benefiting stock trading software companies. In January 2026, new account openings surged by 213.11% year-on-year, while total trading volume increased by 180.64% [9][10]. - The performance of stock trading software is closely correlated with market conditions, particularly during bull markets. For instance, the net profit of Tonghuashun in Q4 2024 is projected to grow by 30.5% to 77.1% year-on-year, indicating strong earnings potential in the current market environment [10][28]. - The report identifies several key players in the stock trading software industry, including Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, Jiufang Zhitu, and Guiding Compass, all of which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market dynamics [3][40][43]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Account Openings and Trading Volume - In 2025, the total number of new accounts reached 27.44 million, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, with an average daily trading volume of 1.2 trillion yuan, up 63.7% [9]. - January 2026 saw new account openings of 4.916 million, a staggering 213.11% increase year-on-year, and total trading volume of 60.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a 180.64% increase [9][10]. Section 2: ETF and Insurance Capital - The report notes a net inflow into index ETFs, with the total net asset value of these ETFs reaching 25,656.20 billion yuan by the end of 2025, a 17% increase from the previous year [14]. - The insurance sector's total assets grew by 15.1% in 2025, with premium income reaching 6.12 trillion yuan, a 7.4% increase year-on-year [17][19]. Section 3: Key Companies Performance - Tonghuashun is highlighted as a leader in financial terminals, with a projected net profit for Q4 2025 ranging from 15.29 to 20.76 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth [28]. - Dongfang Caifu's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 90.97 billion yuan, a 50.57% increase year-on-year, driven primarily by its securities business [32]. - Jiufang Zhitu reported a net profit of 8.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 596.81% increase, showcasing its strong market position [37]. Section 4: Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued upward movement in the index, supported by the influx of new accounts and trading volumes, alongside the backing of insurance capital and the migration of household deposits [26][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental and Gaoneng Environment [6][20]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of rural ecological environment governance with agricultural modernization, driven by the State Council's policy, which is expected to boost demand in rural wastewater treatment, waste disposal, and agricultural pollution prevention [10][12]. - The Guangdong Province has issued a guiding announcement for hazardous waste utilization and disposal capacity construction for 2025, indicating a shift towards optimizing the structure of hazardous waste disposal, which will benefit companies focused on solid waste treatment [13][17]. - The environmental sector is currently experiencing low macroeconomic interest rates, making it an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [2][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report highlights the release of the Central Committee and State Council's document on rural revitalization, which aims to integrate ecological governance with agricultural modernization, thus providing a long-term trend for rural environmental services [10][12]. - The announcement from Guangdong regarding hazardous waste management encourages investment in projects that focus on resource utilization and high-end disposal, promoting a transition from scale expansion to quality improvement in the industry [13][17]. - The report notes that the environmental sector's valuation and institutional holdings are at historical lows, suggesting a potential for sustained rebounds in the sector [18]. Market Performance - The environmental sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of only 0.18% compared to a 1.27% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 3.28% drop in the ChiNext Index [23]. - Among the sub-sectors, energy-saving and air treatment segments showed positive growth, while solid waste management experienced a slight decline [23]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is recognized for its strong technological capabilities and significant projects in hazardous waste management, with a focus on resource recovery from waste plastics [20]. - Gaoneng Environment is positioned as a leading player in hazardous waste resource utilization, with a robust project pipeline and a commitment to environmental system services [20]. - Hongcheng Environment is highlighted for its consistent revenue growth and high dividend yield, making it an attractive investment option in the current market [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report recommends holding bonds during the Spring Festival. The current fundamental situation provides background support for the bond market, with continued loose liquidity, potential further decline in short - term interest rates, limited post - festival bond supply pressure, stronger market allocation power, and limited impact of the stock market on the bond market due to the low duration of trading institutions. If trading institutions increase leverage, it will further boost the bond market. The overall market trend is in a gradual recovery, and the dumbbell strategy is relatively more advantageous [1][5][21] Summary by Related Content 1. Current Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to recover, with long - term bonds performing more prominently. Interest rates across all tenors declined. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.1bps and 3.8bps respectively to 1.81% and 2.25%. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds dropped by 1.6bps and 1.8bps respectively, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit (CD) rate broke through 1.6%, falling 1bps to 1.59%. The dumbbell strategy recommended earlier achieved better returns [1][9] 2. Reasons for Recommending Holding Bonds During the Spring Festival 2.1 Loose liquidity will continue - The current liquidity remains stably loose, which is beneficial for the leverage strategy. Overnight funds are around 1.4%, and the 7 - day repurchase rate is around 1.4% - 1.5%. This is not due to increased central bank capital injection but rather weak financing demand and capital supplementation from other channels such as fiscal deposits. After the Spring Festival, funds tend to be even looser [1][10] - The loose funds will protect the bond market and may drive interest rates to decline from short - term to long - term. As funds remain loose, the CD rate may further decline to 1.5% - 1.55%. The current steep curve means that a decline in short - term interest rates will enhance the cost - effectiveness of long - term bonds and drive down long - term interest rates. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond and the 1 - year CD is over 20bps, the highest since the second half of 2023 [2][13] 2.2 Limited post - festival market supply pressure and high bank allocation demand - In the first five weeks of this year, government bond net financing was about 2 trillion. If the first - quarter net financing is the same as last year at about 4.1 trillion, the net financing in the five weeks after the festival until the end of the quarter will also be about 2 trillion, with a weekly average similar to that before the festival. Since credit is more concentrated in January, post - festival bank and other institutional allocation needs are stronger [3][14] - Bank liability costs are continuously decreasing, alleviating the pressure on net interest margins. The scale of bonds with high floating profits bought before the second half of 2024 has decreased after realizing floating profits last year, reducing the space and demand for banks to realize floating profits and thus lowering the risk in the second half of the quarter for the bond market [3][14] 2.3 Limited pressure from other capital markets on the bond market and potential new driving forces - Although the rise of other capital markets may impact the bond market, the impact is mainly through trading institutions such as funds and securities firms. The duration of these institutions has dropped to a low level. The duration of medium - and long - term public offering interest - rate bond funds decreased to 3.35 years at the end of 2025, lower than the 3.45 years at the end of 2024, which means limited continued adjustment pressure on the bond market [4][16] - If the market continues to strengthen, the leverage - increasing demand of funds and securities firms may become a new driving force for the bond market to strengthen [4][16] 3. Overall Market Trend and Strategy - The overall market trend is in a gradual recovery process. The dumbbell strategy is relatively more advantageous. Since the duration of allocation - type institutions is relatively high, the market direction is mainly determined by them. With the continuous decline of their liability costs, the cost - effectiveness of bonds as allocation assets has increased. The stable liabilities and insufficient real - economy financing demand lead to asset scarcity, enabling allocation - type institutions to continue increasing their bond holdings. Trading institutions mainly affect the speed of market recovery. If they quickly increase their positions, it will accelerate the decline of interest rates [6][21]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：adidas 披露业绩 2025Q4 业绩预告；VF FY2026Q3 经 营表现优异 【专题一：adidas 披露 2025 年度业绩预告】 adidas 披露 2025Q4 业绩预告，经营表现优异，公司启动股票回购。根 据公司披露，货币中性基础上 2025Q4 adidas 品牌营收同比增长 11%， 若考虑到同期的 Yeezy 产品销售收入后，2025Q4 公司营收增长 10%，毛 利率同比提升 1pcts 至 50.8%。2025 全年来看，货币中性基础上 adidas 品牌营收增长 13%，所有渠道以及地区均有双位数增长，若考虑到同期的 Yeezy 产品销售收入后，2025 年公司营收增长 10%，公司毛利率同比提 升 0.8pcts 至 51.6%，经营利润率同比提升 2.6pcts 至 8.3%。基于强劲的 基本面表现及管理层对未来的信心，公司宣布启动股票回购，计划从 2026 年 2 月初开始，回购价值高达 10 亿欧元的股票。 【专题二：VF 公司披露 FY2026Q3 季报】 FY20 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 社会服务 春节旺季在即，重视服务消费与商品消费 即将步入"史上最长春节假期"，考虑到节日消费传统与新兴消费趋势，我 们建议重视与春节相关的消费子板块，包括免税、出行链（景区酒店餐饮）、 茶饮（红包受益）、黄金珠宝、商超。 免税：海南离岛免税春节有望持续强劲。据海口海关统计，2026 年 1 月， 海南离岛免税购物金额 45.3 亿元，购物人数 56.0 万人次，购物数量 336.7 万件，同比分别增长 44.8%、21.0%和 14.0%。根据同程旅行数据，截至 1 月 27 日，海南省春节酒店整体预订热度同比上涨 191%，其中，海口、 三亚、陵水春节酒店预订热度分别同比涨超 227%、167%和 169%。预计 海南离岛免税行业景气趋势在春节旺季仍将保持强劲。 出行链：长假+普惠政策，最长春节有望迎最热表现。据同程旅行，较长 假期将推动 26 年春节出游人群比例提升，逐步接近返乡大军比例。在休 闲度假、探亲访友、返乡团圆等多元需求的组合下，"分段式过年"和"复 合型春节"的特点愈发明显。出行趋势上，除了假期首尾的客流高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5%-6% growth in electricity consumption for 2026, with a significant decline in proxy electricity prices in February [5][12] - Over 80% of provinces and cities reported a year-on-year decrease in proxy electricity prices in February, with Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning experiencing the largest declines of 29.3%, 25.6%, and 23.1% respectively [5][14] - The report anticipates that by the end of 2026, the installed capacity of solar power will exceed that of coal power for the first time, with renewable energy sources accounting for half of the total installed capacity [5][14] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report predicts that by 2026, the total installed capacity of renewable energy will reach half of the total installed capacity, with solar power surpassing coal power for the first time [5][14] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to be between 10.9 and 11 trillion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%-6% [5][14] Investment Trends - In January 2026, the State Grid completed fixed asset investments of 30.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [6][14] - The Southern Power Grid plans to invest over 24 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of over 20% [7][14] Proxy Electricity Prices - The report highlights that proxy electricity prices have generally decreased, with significant drops in various regions, indicating a more favorable supply-side environment [5][14] Key Companies and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal-fired power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and integrated coal power operations, such as Huaneng International and Huadian International [8][14] - It also recommends monitoring companies in the wind and solar sectors, including Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [8][14]