Group 1: Macro Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has established a clear direction for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing foundational consolidation and comprehensive efforts, with a focus on "common prosperity" and strengthening "internal circulation" [6] - The plan identifies four strategic emerging industries and six future industries, aiming to promote key core technology breakthroughs in six priority areas through extraordinary measures [6] Group 2: Fixed Income - Er Yong Bonds - Recent market conditions have led to a decline in risk appetite, benefiting Er Yong bonds with both interest rate and spread reductions [7] - The supply of Er Yong bonds remains weak, continuing the trend of asset scarcity, while the monthly turnover rate has remained stable [7] - The pricing model suggests that the yield of 5-year AAA-rated secondary capital bonds may decline to approximately 2.07% next year [7] Group 3: Banking Sector - Precious Metals - The banking sector is expected to see growth in precious metals business despite challenges from high volatility in the gold market [8] - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase for 11 consecutive months, with a global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves [8] - The introduction of pilot programs for insurance funds to invest in gold is creating new opportunities for banks to provide services and increase intermediary income [8] Group 4: Textile and Apparel - Baoxini - Baoxini's revenue is expected to stabilize, with a projected decline in net profit due to ongoing adjustments in its main brand [12] - The company is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 2.95 billion, 3.74 billion, and 4.49 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [12] Group 5: Food and Beverage - Haitian Flavoring - Haitian Flavoring reported a revenue of 21.628 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.02% [13] - The company is expected to benefit from its leadership position in the industry and aims for significant growth in overseas markets [13] Group 6: Computer Industry - Zhongke Chuangda - Zhongke Chuangda's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 1.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.87% [15] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 606 million, 695 million, and 782 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [15] Group 7: Home Appliances - Hisense - Hisense's profitability has slightly declined, but the company remains optimistic about its long-term globalization strategy [16] - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 3.398 billion, 3.771 billion, and 4.154 billion yuan, with a "hold" rating [16] Group 8: Coal Industry - China Coal Energy - China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 110.584 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24% [27] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 16 billion, 17.1 billion, and 18.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [27] Group 9: Automotive - Huguang - Huguang's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [34] - The company is expanding its customer base and enhancing its overseas market presence, which is expected to drive future growth [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances [5] Core Views - The company has shown slight declines in profitability but is optimistic about its long-term globalization strategy [1][2] - The company reported total revenue of 71.533 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.812 billion yuan, up 0.67% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter revenue of 22.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, but a net profit of 735 million yuan, down 5.40% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 20.20% [1] - The company is committed to a globalization strategy, enhancing its brand influence overseas, and accelerating digital transformation [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.398 billion yuan, 3.771 billion yuan, and 4.154 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 1.5%, 11.0%, and 10.2% [2] - The operating revenue is expected to grow from 85.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 107.296 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 15.5% in 2023 and slowing to 6.0% by 2027 [4] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from 2.05 yuan in 2023 to 3.00 yuan in 2027 [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.88% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has experienced revenue growth of 16.30% year-on-year, reaching 2.613 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit increased by 31.52% to 231 million yuan [1] - The expansion of outlets has put pressure on profit margins, with a notable decline in net profit in Q3 2025, attributed to increased teacher labor costs due to expansion [1][3] - The education business is expected to maintain steady growth, with cash collections showing a significant increase, indicating strong revenue growth potential [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 697 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, but net profit fell to 1.43 million yuan, down 89.90% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 27.17%, a decrease of 5.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased labor costs from outlet expansion [3] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 250 million, 310 million, and 380 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 40.6%, 23.9%, and 22.7% [4] Business Outlook - The core high school personalized education business is expected to perform well, especially leading up to the college entrance examination, with full-time programs supporting off-peak operations [2] - The company has expanded its personalized learning centers to over 300 and opened 5 full-time schools, with a total student enrollment of nearly 7,500 [3] - The vocational education segment is also deepening its layout, with over 15 vocational schools and partnerships for industry-education integration [4] Market Position - The company is well-positioned in the education sector, benefiting from a favorable competitive landscape post-"double reduction" policy, which has cleared out excess supply [3] - The report highlights the company's strong brand, network scale, and teaching resources as key advantages for future growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 69.56% year-on-year increase in revenue to 128.88 billion yuan and a 51.17% increase in net profit to 3.10 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The diversified business segments are performing well, with notable growth in high-performance computing, smart terminals, AIoT, and automotive and industrial products [2] - The company is expanding its international presence through acquisitions and plans for a Hong Kong IPO, which is expected to enhance its capital strength [3] - Continuous investment in R&D is driving the company's growth, with R&D expenses reaching 4.62 billion yuan, a 23.7% increase year-on-year [4] - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 shows expected revenue growth of 40.6%, 19.1%, and 17.0%, respectively, with net profit growth of 40.6%, 18.4%, and 18.1% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 44.94 billion yuan, a 22.75% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, a 59.46% increase year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.84%, with Q3 gross margin at 8.17%, indicating steady improvement [2] Business Segments - High-performance computing accounted for 58.6% of total revenue, followed by smart terminals at 35.6%, with AIoT and automotive products making up 4.4% and 1.4%, respectively [2] R&D and Innovation - The company has established a strategic layout for smart products and is exploring new opportunities in automotive electronics, software, and robotics [4] Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve revenues of 154.45 billion yuan in 2025, 183.89 billion yuan in 2026, and 215.13 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.11 billion yuan, 4.87 billion yuan, and 5.75 billion yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company demonstrated steady profitability with a revenue of 2.438 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 66 million yuan, up 28.13% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is planning to deepen its international presence, having opened its first overseas store in Singapore, and is preparing to issue H shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its international strategy [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.349 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.10%, and a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 59.29% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved to 30.49% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.34 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue showed a slight increase, with total expenses rising to 27.35% [2] Store Expansion and Business Model - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 2,503 stores under the "Silk Domain" brand, with over 2 million members, and has diversified its store formats [1] - The company is focusing on a multi-channel operational strategy, emphasizing a global differentiated supply chain and local parenting services [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 10.25 billion yuan, 11.23 billion yuan, and 12.75 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 310 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 510 million yuan [3][4] - The report anticipates an increase in earnings per share (EPS) to 0.24 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.40 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益专题 gszqdatemark 2025 10 28 年 月 日 固定收益专题 二永债如何配 二永债作为"利率放大器"，近期放大效应有所减弱，主要由于交易属性降低。2024 年年末以来，二永债的放大器特点持续偏弱。原因在于二永债需求主力转变、交易 属性降低。2024 年 4 季度以来，5 年二级资本债收益率对保险吸引力下降，同时 基金更多在更长期限去拉久期，二永的主力需求力量变成了信托年金等，背后的 资金部分来源于理财。底层资金属性使得二永债的配置特点加深、交易属性减弱。 今年 1-9 月二永债月度换手率维持相对平稳。今年 1-9 月二级资本债月度换手率 平均 18.14%，月均成交 7691 亿元，月均换手率较去年上升 0.8%；银行永续债 月度换手率平均 20.35%，月均成交 5192 亿元，月均换手率较去年下降 1.00%。 今年 1-9 月国有行平均月度换手率在 16%-25%，工行和建行的成交活跃度较高； 股份行平均月度换手率在 14%-23%，中国民生银行、浦发银行、平安银行、招商 银行、中信银行的成交活跃度较高；资产规模在万亿以上的城农商行平均月度换 手率在 10%- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 110.58 billion yuan, down 21.24% year-on-year, and net profit at 12.485 billion yuan, down 14.57% year-on-year. However, the Q3 performance exceeded expectations with a slight revenue increase of 0.29% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a significant decrease in unit sales costs for self-produced coal, which was 258 yuan/ton for the first three quarters, down 28.9 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] - The acquisition of a 30% stake in a renewable energy company is expected to enhance profitability and accelerate the development of a "coal-electricity-chemical-new" industry chain [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a production and sales volume of 101.58 million tons and 190.36 million tons, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.3 million tons and 15.15 million tons [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal for the first three quarters was 474 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 16 billion, 17.1 billion, and 18.5 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.4, 10.7, and 9.9 times [3] Cost Management - The unit sales cost of self-produced coal in Q3 was 247 yuan/ton, reflecting a reduction due to improved procurement management and cost control measures [3] - The company has implemented measures to reduce safety and maintenance costs, contributing to lower overall costs [3] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of a renewable energy company is seen as a strategic move to diversify and strengthen the company's portfolio, potentially leading to increased profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown a performance turning point in Q3 2025, with significant growth in its core exhibition business, driven by major events [1][2] - The company is expanding its market presence through various collaborations and is accelerating its layout in new sectors, particularly in the "pet economy" and AI services [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, a decrease of 10.51% [1] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported revenue of 471 million yuan, up 38.00% year-on-year, and a net profit of 124 million yuan, an increase of 3.33% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 26.50%, down 6.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the company effectively managed its expenses [2] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.714 billion yuan, 1.845 billion yuan, and 1.987 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 7.7%, and 7.7% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 335 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 429 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.3%, 13.2%, and 12.9% respectively [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a nationwide layout through its main exhibition resources and is promoting several exhibitions to expand its reach [3] - The establishment of a specialized company for AI services indicates a strategic shift towards becoming a comprehensive service provider in the AI sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.27 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 8.88 billion yuan, slightly down 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.37 billion yuan, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing brand and product structure, enhancing its main brand product combinations, and expanding into new sales channels [2] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q3 2025 increased by 1.4 percentage points to 43.6%, with a decrease in unit cost by 3.0% year-on-year to 2,317 yuan per ton [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.1%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 4.70 billion, 5.06 billion, and 5.41 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.2%, 7.6%, and 6.9% [3] Strategic Focus - The company is enhancing its operational capabilities amid weak consumer demand and is focusing on strategic planning for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The company is actively developing its online channels and new retail formats to strengthen its market presence [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - Despite a decline in production and sales in Q3, the company managed to achieve profit growth, and the elasticity of coal prices is expected to be more pronounced in Q4 [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.065 billion yuan, 2.468 billion yuan, and 2.717 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.3X, 10.3X, and 9.3X respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.99%, and a net profit of 1.277 billion yuan, down 40.65% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.360 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.85% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.13%, with a net profit of 401 million yuan, down 43.94% year-on-year but up 10.08% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The coal production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 26.19 million tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 20.86 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was 437 yuan/ton, down 60.6 yuan/ton year-on-year [7]. - The cost of coal sales for the first three quarters of 2025 was 271 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 166 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan/ton year-on-year [7].