Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant decline in ultra - long bonds is not expected to lead to a significant and continuous increase in the ultra - long bond spread in the long - term. However, short - term risks need further observation. As year - end bank indicator pressures ease, fund and brokerage positions decrease, and insurance allocation demand recovers, the ultra - long bond spread is expected to repair. But short - term risks, especially potential market shocks from concentrated selling by trading institutions, are hard to judge [5][21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Current Situation of Ultra - long Bonds - Recently, while other bonds remained stable, ultra - long bonds declined significantly. Since last Friday, medium - and short - term bonds were stable, with 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields fluctuating less than 1bp, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rising slightly by 1.1bp. In contrast, the 30 - year Treasury yield rose by 5.0bp, and the 50 - year Treasury yield rose by 5.9bp. This widened the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year bonds to 38.3bps, approaching the highs in late September and early October [1][8]. Reasons for the Weakening of Ultra - long Bonds - Banks' ability to hold long - term bonds is restricted by indicators such as △EVE and the Tier 1 capital ratio close to the 15% regulatory red line, which may lead to selling of long - term bonds to meet requirements or realize floating profits [2][10]. - The public fund fee reform may increase redemption pressure, and year - end net value drawdowns may exacerbate passive redemptions, causing trading institutions like funds and brokerages to reduce long - bond holdings [2][10]. - Insurance institutions' liability growth has slowed in the past two months, with a shift in allocation towards stocks. Insurance premium income growth was negative in September and October, and the proportion of bonds in asset allocation decreased slightly while the stock proportion increased [2][10]. Attractiveness of Ultra - long Bonds - From the perspective of the overall asset portfolio, the increase in ultra - long bond spreads enhances the cost - effectiveness of the barbell portfolio. With the same duration, the barbell portfolio's return is higher than that of the bullet portfolio, increasing the demand for ultra - long bonds and promoting a shift towards a barbell - shaped portfolio [3][12]. - In terms of absolute return, the increase in ultra - long bond yields makes them more attractive compared to other assets. The spread between the 30 - year Treasury and personal mortgage rates is at its lowest since Q3 2017, and considering tax, bad debts, and capital occupation, bonds are more cost - effective than loans. Ultra - long bond yields can cover the liability costs of insurance and banks, and with the slowdown in real - estate sales, future inflows of household deposits and insurance premiums are expected to increase, so the liability side is not a constraint for institutional allocation [4][14]. - Based on previous pricing of the 30 - 10 - year spread using factors like funding prices, net ultra - long bond financing, stock market performance, and ultra - long bond turnover, the current 30 - 10 - year spread is close to the upper limit of one standard deviation, indicating that ultra - long bonds are still within a reasonable range [4][17].

Group 1 - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 40.94 based on a P/E of 24x for 2026 [3][5] - The company is a leading player in the African hygiene products market, focusing on baby diapers, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes, with a well-established brand portfolio [1][14] - The company has a market share of 20.3% in the African baby diaper market and 15.6% in the sanitary napkin market, ranking first in both categories [2][14] Group 2 - The African hygiene products market is projected to reach USD 3.8 billion by 2024, with significant growth potential due to low penetration rates [2][39] - The market for baby diapers, sanitary napkins, and baby pull-ups in Africa is expected to grow at CAGRs of 7.0%, 10.7%, and 7.6% from 2025 to 2029, respectively [2] - The company has established a localized supply chain, a diverse product brand matrix, and a wide sales network, enhancing its competitive edge [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the optical and optoelectronic industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The panel industry is showing signs of price stabilization, with expectations for a rebound in prices as the peak stocking season approaches, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year [1] - The upcoming "tax refund wave" in the U.S. and the 2026 World Cup in North America are anticipated to stimulate demand for large-sized panels, especially those 50 inches and above, as consumers upgrade their televisions for viewing sports events [2] - Supply-side improvements are expected due to seasonal maintenance by domestic panel manufacturers and the exit of South Korean manufacturers from certain production lines, which may lead to a price recovery in the panel industry [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the panel industry is on the verge of a turnaround, with price stabilization expected in December 2025 for various sizes of television panels, while a slight decrease in price for 65-inch panels is projected [1] - The report cites data from Omdia, predicting that prices for 32/43/50/55-inch television panels will stop declining by December 2025, with a potential increase of $1-2 for non-strategic customers for 55/65/75-inch products [1] Demand Drivers - The anticipated tax refunds in the U.S. are expected to increase disposable income for consumers, which could drive demand for large-sized panels [2] - The World Cup is projected to create a significant demand spike for large television panels, with procurement peaks occurring 6-9 months prior to the event [2] Supply Dynamics - Seasonal maintenance activities by domestic manufacturers typically lead to a decrease in production rates around the Chinese New Year, which may further tighten supply [3] - The exit of LG Display from certain production lines is expected to contribute to a more favorable supply environment for the panel industry [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic panel industry players, specifically mentioning companies such as BOE Technology Group, TCL Technology, and Rainbow Technology as potential investment targets [3]

证券研究报告|行业深度 2025 12 03 年 月 日 算力之争，电力为王： 聚焦美国 A I能源革命核心赛道 分析师 张卓然 分析师 鲁昊 执业证书编号：S0680525080005 执业证书编号：S0680525080006 邮箱：zhangzhuoran@gszq.com 邮箱：luhao@gszq.com 分析师 张津铭 分析师 高紫明 分析师 刘力钰 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 执业证书编号：S0680524070012 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 邮箱：liuliyu@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 汇报框架 目录 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 解决AI电力供需的有效途径 2 投资策略与相关标的 3 风险提示 4 2 1 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 3 • 美国电力供需现状 • 美国数据中心用电增长测算 • 供需错配与电网容量难以支撑用电高增 美国电力供需现状 01 AI对美国电力需求的拉动几何 图表2：美国各部门用电占比 资料来源： Wind，国盛证券研究所 资 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The upcoming ByteDance Force Conference on December 18 is expected to showcase advancements in cloud infrastructure, large models, and application deployment, potentially leading a new wave of AI enthusiasm [1] - The Doubao large model has seen significant growth, with daily token usage exceeding 30 trillion by September, indicating rapid AI deployment [2] - The Doubao mobile assistant, set to launch on December 1, will enhance user efficiency by automating complex tasks on mobile devices [3] - The Huoshan Cloud business is projected to generate 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 and over 20 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 100% [4] - The industry is witnessing rapid advancements in AI models and cost reductions in computing power, which will facilitate broader application deployment and create a commercial AI ecosystem [5] Summary by Sections Doubao Large Model - The Doubao model's daily token usage has increased by over 137 times since its last update, showcasing its growing adoption [2] - The upcoming conference is expected to introduce various innovations in the model's capabilities, including multi-modal understanding and enhanced reasoning abilities [2] Doubao Mobile Assistant - The mobile assistant will have system-level access and the ability to perform tasks like ordering food through automation, significantly improving daily efficiency [3] - The assistant is priced at 3,499 yuan and is currently available in collaboration with ZTE [3] Huoshan Cloud Business - Huoshan Engine aims for substantial revenue growth, targeting 100 billion yuan in 2024 and over 200 billion yuan in 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching 1 trillion yuan [4] - Computing power is identified as a core resource for supporting model training and application execution [4] Agent Tools and Industry Solutions - The conference will also focus on upgrading agent development tools and enhancing AI deployment capabilities across various industries [4] - The industry is expected to see stronger solution implementation across sectors such as finance, education, and gaming [4] Related Companies - Key companies in the cloud segment include Cambrian, Digital China, and Dongyangguang, while in the edge segment, ZTE and others are highlighted [6]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in adhesive materials, with a strong presence in various downstream industries such as automotive and electronics [1][13]. - The establishment of a new subsidiary focused on electronic skin technology indicates the company's strategic expansion into emerging markets, particularly in humanoid robotics [2][3]. - The financial forecasts suggest steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 2.01 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, alongside significant profit growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2006 and listed in 2017, the company has evolved into a high-tech enterprise specializing in various adhesive materials, with a focus on R&D, production, and sales [1][13]. - The product portfolio includes industrial adhesives, electronic adhesives, optical adhesive films, specialty papers, and chemical materials, catering to diverse sectors such as construction, 3C electronics, and automotive [1][46]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a leader in the industrial adhesive segment, with a strong market share in products like masking tape, which is widely used in construction and automotive applications [2][46]. - The optical adhesive film, particularly OCA, is highlighted for its applications in new display technologies, with expectations for significant market growth driven by trends in flexible displays and automotive screens [30][39]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company has shown a steady increase in revenue, with total revenue expected to rise from 1.56 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.50 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][21]. - Net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 0.86 billion, 1.18 billion, and 1.55 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a robust recovery and profitability trajectory [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of Beijing Jingzhigan New Materials Co., Ltd. marks the company's entry into the electronic skin market, focusing on multi-modal flexible tactile sensors for various applications [2][3]. - The company aims to leverage its existing material advantages to capture growth opportunities in the electronic skin sector, which is expected to see increased demand in robotics and consumer electronics [2][3].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: ERP and DRP Standardized Equal-Weight Model for A-Share Odds - **Model Construction Idea**: The model calculates A-share odds using standardized values of ERP (Equity Risk Premium) and DRP (Default Risk Premium) with equal weighting[12] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardized values of ERP and DRP are calculated - These values are equally weighted to derive the A-share odds - As of the end of November, the A-share odds declined to near the zero axis, indicating a neutral level[12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model reflects a neutral positioning for A-shares, with odds returning to a balanced state[12] 2. Model Name: Bond Odds Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the expected return difference between long-term and short-term bonds to construct a bond odds indicator[19] - **Model Construction Process**: - The expected return difference between long-term and short-term bonds is calculated - This difference is standardized to derive the bond odds indicator - Recently, the bond odds indicator has significantly rebounded but remains at a low level of -0.9 standard deviations[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the rebound in bond odds, though it remains at a relatively low level[19] 3. Model Name: AIAE Indicator for US Stocks - **Model Construction Idea**: The AIAE (Asset Implied Allocation Efficiency) indicator measures the historical positioning of US stocks to assess risk and return[20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The AIAE indicator is calculated based on historical data - Currently, the AIAE indicator is at 55%, the highest point in its history, corresponding to 2.4 standard deviations above the mean - Historical analysis shows that when the AIAE indicator exceeded 50% in 2000 and 2022, the S&P 500 experienced significant corrections of 46% and 25%, respectively[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights elevated risks for US stocks, with the AIAE indicator at a historically high level[20] 4. Model Name: Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines quantity and price dimensions to construct a liquidity index for asset allocation[20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The index incorporates multiple factors, including net liquidity, Federal Reserve credit support, market expectations, and announcement surprises - After the October FOMC meeting, the announcement surprise signal turned negative, and net liquidity continued to decline - Other indicators showed easing signals, and the liquidity index returned to a moderately high level of 20%[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of liquidity conditions, highlighting mixed signals in the current environment[20] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. ERP and DRP Standardized Equal-Weight Model for A-Share Odds - Odds: Neutral (near zero axis)[12] - Win Rate: 16%[12] 2. Bond Odds Indicator - Odds: -0.9 standard deviations (low level)[19] - Win Rate: -4% (medium level)[19] 3. AIAE Indicator for US Stocks - Odds: 2.4 standard deviations (historically high level)[20] - Win Rate: Not explicitly mentioned[20] 4. Federal Reserve Liquidity Index - Liquidity Index: 20% (moderately high level)[20] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates small-cap stocks based on odds, trends, and crowding levels[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 0.2 standard deviations (neutral level) - Trend: 1.2 standard deviations (high level) - Crowding: -1.4 standard deviations (low level) - Comprehensive score: 4[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows strong trends and low crowding, making it attractive for allocation[21] 2. Factor Name: Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses value stocks using odds, trends, and crowding levels[23] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 0.8 standard deviations (moderately high level) - Trend: 0.1 standard deviations (neutral level) - Crowding: -1.3 standard deviations (low level) - Comprehensive score: 3[23] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor ranks high among others, suggesting it is worth focusing on[23] 3. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates quality stocks based on odds, trends, and crowding levels[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 1.2 standard deviations (high level) - Trend: -0.6 standard deviations (low level) - Crowding: 0.1 standard deviations (medium level) - Comprehensive score: 0[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's weak trend reduces its allocation value, requiring confirmation of a right-side trend[26] 4. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Analyzes growth stocks using odds, trends, and crowding levels[29] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Odds: 0.1 standard deviations (neutral level) - Trend: 0.5 standard deviations (moderately high level) - Crowding: 1.5 standard deviations (high level) - Comprehensive score: -1.2[29] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's high crowding level indicates elevated trading risks[29] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small-Cap Factor - Odds: 0.2 standard deviations[21] - Trend: 1.2 standard deviations[21] - Crowding: -1.4 standard deviations[21] - Comprehensive Score: 4[21] 2. Value Factor - Odds: 0.8 standard deviations[23] - Trend: 0.1 standard deviations[23] - Crowding: -1.3 standard deviations[23] - Comprehensive Score: 3[23] 3. Quality Factor - Odds: 1.2 standard deviations[26] - Trend: -0.6 standard deviations[26] - Crowding: 0.1 standard deviations[26] - Comprehensive Score: 0[26] 4. Growth Factor - Odds: 0.1 standard deviations[29] - Trend: 0.5 standard deviations[29] - Crowding: 1.5 standard deviations[29] - Comprehensive Score: -1.2[29]

Key Insights - The report highlights the focus on resource products and AI applications in overseas markets, with particular attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting in December [1][9] - Google's launch of the Gemini 3 AI model is noted as a significant advancement, claiming to be the most intelligent and factually accurate AI system to date, enhancing various tasks such as software creation and document analysis [2][11] - Tesla's shareholder meeting approved a substantial compensation plan for Elon Musk, with over 75% of shareholders in favor, and revealed plans for mass production of humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles [3][10] - The report emphasizes the rising demand for autonomous driving chips, particularly from leading companies like Horizon Robotics and new automotive players such as Leap Motor [4][21] Overseas Stock Recommendations for December 2025 - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) reported strong Q3 performance with a revenue of 1169.3 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 193.7 billion yuan, up 23% [22][23] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is expected to benefit from improved coal quality and rising coal prices, with significant production growth anticipated from its Indonesian operations [26][27] - Beike-W (2423.HK) is positioned as a key player in the real estate brokerage sector, with a projected net profit of 37.1 billion yuan in 2025 [30][31] - Alibaba-W (9988.HK) is expected to reduce losses in its flash sales segment, with a focus on AI integration across its services [33][34] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is experiencing strong growth in advertising revenue, driven by AI enhancements [37][38] - Google-A (GOOGL.O) reported a 15.9% year-on-year revenue increase, with significant growth in its cloud business and AI applications [41][42] - AAC Technologies (2018.HK) is expanding its optical and automotive product lines, with a projected revenue growth of 18% from 2025 to 2027 [46][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [6]. Core Insights - The establishment of local carbon accounting systems is accelerating, driving high demand in the environmental monitoring industry. Policies in Shandong and Hubei provinces are expected to create clear incremental demand for carbon management and environmental monitoring services [1][28]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by historically low interest rates, making high-dividend assets and growth-oriented companies attractive. The report highlights companies benefiting from carbon neutrality, such as high-energy waste management leaders and strong dividend-paying state-owned enterprises [2][29]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - Shandong Province has released a carbon accounting methodology for public institutions, mandating energy-saving renovations and renewable energy adoption, which will directly benefit environmental monitoring companies like Juguang Technology and Xuedilong [1][21]. - Hubei Province has implemented a stringent energy-saving review and carbon emission evaluation for fixed asset investment projects, enhancing the green threshold for investments and favoring environmental monitoring sectors [28]. Market Performance - The environmental sector performed moderately, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index but underperforming the ChiNext Index. The environmental sector index rose by 1.78%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index by 4.54% [34]. Industry News - New standards for air pollutant emissions from municipal waste incineration have been released in Shanghai, setting comprehensive requirements for existing and new facilities [40]. - Hubei's new regulations require simultaneous energy-saving reviews and carbon emission evaluations for all new, renovated, and expanded projects, significantly raising the bar for fixed asset investments [28]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is noted for its strong growth potential and high dividend yield, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate of 13.0% from 2016 to 2024 [30][33]. - Gaoneng Environment aims to become a leading global environmental service provider, focusing on hazardous waste resource utilization and environmental engineering [32].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 01 年 月 日 宏观定期 高频半月观—10 月底以来基建实物量持续走弱 每半月，我们基于"供给、需求、价格、库存、交通物流、流动性"6 大 维度，跟踪最新高频的变化，本期为近半月（2025.11.17—11.30）综述。 核心结论：近半月高频变化有三：一是反内卷继续推进、价格上行的信号 持续强化，煤炭、钢铁价格均上涨，高炉开工率及钢材库存下降；二是新 房、二手房销售均季节性回升，但同比降幅均仍阔；三是 10 月底以来基建 实物工作量持续走弱，沥青开工率、水泥发运率均回落。继续提示：近几 个月经济呈现加速下滑的迹象，但全年"保 5%"有惊无险，短期紧盯 3 大 会议：12 月上中旬政治局会议&中央经济工作会议、预计对 2026 年政策 定调偏积极偏扩张，12.10 美联储议息会议、是否降息很关键。此外，也要 关注其它 3 类政策：我国会否降准降息（预计 2026 年一季度之前大概率 会降）；稳地产可能的组合拳；短期政策接续，包括四季度政策性金融工具、 结存限额下拨、重启买卖国债等政策的效果，各部门对 2026 年以旧换新、 谋划新一批重大项 ...