证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 02 年 月 日 海康威视（002415.SZ） 半年报业绩扎实稳健，精细化管理带来高质量发展 事件：海康威视发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现营业总收入 418.18 亿元，比上年同期增长 1.48%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 56.57 亿元，比上年同期增长 11.71%。 抵御外部不确定性，收入端与利润端仍然实现稳健成长，凸显公司经营实 力。2025 年上半年，全球经济复苏动力不均，外部不确定性依然突出；国 内稳经济政策多措并举，经济展现出一定韧性但能见度较低，企业与社会 数字化转型升级进程在波动起伏中前进。面对复杂多变的国内外环境，海 康威视坚持稳扎稳打，以积极、审慎的态度应对各种不确定性，2025H1 仍 旧实现营业总收入 1.48%的增长和归母净利润 11.71%的增长，凸显公司 经营的稳健性。 境外业务平稳增长，创新业务提供最重要增长动能。2025H1，境外主业同 比增长 6.9%，成长平稳；创新业务同比增长 13.9%，是公司当前主要分 业务中增长最快的部分，为公司提供最重要的成长动力源泉。 优化运营体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in its civil construction business while accelerating its overseas expansion [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 13.57 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 560 million yuan, down 40.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively pursuing channel transformation and consolidating its waterproofing main business while exploring new growth avenues in mortar and overseas markets [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025: - Waterproof membranes: 5.513 billion yuan, down 8.8%, gross margin 22.6%, down 5.2 percentage points - Coatings: 3.946 billion yuan, down 17.1%, gross margin 36.5%, down 1.0 percentage points - Mortar powder: 1.996 billion yuan, down 6.2%, gross margin 26.6%, down 0.87 percentage points - Engineering construction: 849 million yuan, down 32.3% [2]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 4.0% for the first half of 2025, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Dividend - As of June 30, 2025, the company's accounts receivable totaled 11.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 4.57 billion yuan [3]. - The company announced a mid-year dividend plan of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 2.21 billion yuan [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.206 billion yuan, 1.427 billion yuan, and 1.461 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.8, 20.1, and 19.7 [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the bond market, with credit bonds experiencing a larger decline compared to interest rate bonds, particularly in the period from July 18 to July 25, where 3Y and above interest rate bonds rose by 7-9 basis points, while credit bonds fell by 8-12 basis points [1][8][11] - The primary reasons for the market decline include a rebound in equity and commodity prices, a tightening of the funding environment, and increased redemption pressure [1][11][21] - Following the market adjustment, the report suggests that the credit market may enter a slow recovery phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect being a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend [2][21][25] Group 2 - The report highlights a seasonal characteristic in credit bond net financing, with supply expected to rise from June to August, followed by a decline in September as corporate financing needs weaken [3][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the credit bond ETF market have led to a slowdown in growth, with some ETFs experiencing a slight contraction in scale [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes that the current credit market is relatively weak, with significant volatility and limited space for narrowing credit spreads, particularly in the short to medium term [3][27]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 31 年 月 日 宏观政策坚持稳中求进的基调，整体保持定力，但也未排除因应环境变化的增 量政策。本次会议在宏观政策上继续强调"稳"，我们认为下半年宏观政策取 向可能并非强刺激，但会议提出""增强活性预见性预"""时加力力"指向向 果情况恶化，可能会有进一步积极的动作。具体来看，会议提出"要落实落细 更力积极的财政政策和时度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"，表述从此 前"用足用好"改为"落实落细"，可能向向政策更侧重"提质"。虽然没有直 接提到降准降息，但提到"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，我们认为下半年引 导 LPR 小幅下降仍可期待。 房地产相关表述有所精简，并不代表房地产不重要，未来仍有待提升政策支持 力度。相较 2024 年数次政治局会议，本次会议关于房地产相关表述有所精简， 省略了 4 月会议诸 稳地产"房地产收储等相关表述。 但我们认为这并不代 表房地产不重要。2025 年以来，新房销售延续负增，量能处于近年最低水平， 不论是量"价均难言已实现稳地产的目标。低迷的市场持续影响房企拿地"开 工"施工等向标，对房地产开发投资乃至于经济 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and AI as catalysts for investment opportunities in overseas markets [1][2] - The upcoming release of OpenAI's GPT-5 is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various applications, potentially impacting multiple sectors [3][10] - The report recommends a diversified portfolio of stocks, focusing on companies with strong growth potential in AI, consumer goods, and real estate [4][20] Recent Key Events - The third round of US-China trade talks took place in Sweden, with significant global attention on the outcomes [1][8] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2025) in Shanghai gathered over 1,572 leaders and scholars to discuss the future of AI [2][9] - The H20 chip export ban was lifted, allowing for renewed trade with China, which could influence tech companies [2][9] Market Situation - The Hong Kong and US stock markets saw significant gains in July, with the Hang Seng Index rising from 24,072 points to 25,524 points, a 6.0% increase [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 110.8 billion HKD in July, indicating strong investor interest in Hong Kong stocks [12][13] Current Portfolio Recommendations - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: Strong growth in overseas business with a 475%-480% increase in international revenue in Q1 2025 [21][22] - **Jintai Holdings (2228.HK)**: Positioned as a leader in AI for Science, with significant growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector [26][27] - **China Qinfa (0866.HK)**: Improved balance sheet with a net profit increase of 150.5% in 2024, driven by loan restructuring [30][33] - **Greentown China (3900.HK)**: Despite a decline in profits, the company is expected to stabilize and lead the industry due to strong land acquisition strategies [36][39] - **Alibaba (9988.HK)**: Revenue growth of 7% in Q4 2025, with a strong focus on AI and cloud services [40][41] - **Kuaishou-W (1024.HK)**: Significant growth in e-commerce and advertising revenue, driven by innovative marketing strategies [44][46] - **Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK)**: Record revenue of 111.3 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a strong performance in both mobile and AIOT sectors [47]

Group 1: PMI Trends - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points, with service and construction sectors dropping by 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points respectively[2] - Composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting a slowdown in overall economic expansion[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - July PMI production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion but with weakening demand[3] - New orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering contraction territory, with new export orders down by 0.6 percentage points[3] - New export orders index dropped to 47.1%, remaining in contraction, while import orders held steady at 47.8%[3] Group 3: Price and Employment Insights - Price indices rebounded, with raw material and factory price indices rising by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in PPI[4] - Employment pressure eased slightly, with manufacturing, service, and construction employment indices increasing by 0.1, 0.0, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[4] - Service sector PMI fell to 50.0%, while construction PMI dropped 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, the second-lowest this year[6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting indicated a focus on policy implementation, with potential new policies expected but not strong stimulus measures[6] - Economic pressures are anticipated to increase in the second half of the year, particularly in August and September, due to prior "export rush" effects and short-term contraction[6] - Continued monitoring of US-China trade negotiations is advised, as potential developments may impact market conditions[6]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 2025年07月31日 固定收益点评 收益下行的挑战——货币基金 202502 李报点评 二季度货币基金规模超季节性回升。2025年二季度货币甚全资产净值达 到 14.21 万亿元,较上李度增加 9046 亿元,同比多增 2059 亿元。一李度 同业存款整改使得货币基金收益率下降以及伴随着货币基金规模的下降。 二季度货币基金规模回升且实现超季节性增长。 二季度货币基金相对于存款收益优势抬升,推动了货基规模增速回升。货 币基金资产净值同比增速由 3月的 6.7%上升至 6 月的 7.9%。全市场货 币基金七日年化平均收益率由３月的１.45%下降至６月的１.34%，下降 幅度为 11.17bps。二季度存款挂牌利率降幅在 5bps-25bps 左右,大行 1 年定存挂牌利率下降 15bps 至 0.95%,3年定存挂牌利率下降 25bps 至 1.25%。货币基金收益率与 1 年定存挂牌利率的利差由 3 月的 34.95bps 上升至6月的 38.78bps,货币基金相对于存款收益优势抬升,推动了货基 规模增速回升。 | 作者 | | | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 杨业伟 ...

Group 1: Fund Size and Growth - The total net asset value of four types of bond funds reached 9.26 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, an increase of 561.7 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter[14] - The medium- and long-term pure bond funds grew by 269.2 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds increased by 172.4 billion yuan to 1.14 trillion yuan[14] - The net asset values of primary and secondary bond funds were 850.2 billion yuan and 807.7 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 81.6 billion yuan and 38.5 billion yuan from the previous quarter[14] Group 2: Asset Allocation and Bond Holdings - Bond positions increased significantly, with a net purchase of 800.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025 after a reduction of 458.4 billion yuan in Q1[21] - The market value of bonds held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds was 7.76 trillion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds held 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting increases of 396.2 billion yuan and 224.7 billion yuan, respectively[21] - The proportion of bond holdings in total assets for the four types of bond funds increased, with medium- and long-term pure bond funds at 97.75% and short-term pure bond funds at 97.81%[21] Group 3: Leverage and Duration - The average leverage ratios for medium- and long-term pure bond funds, short-term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 120%, 114%, 117%, and 114%, respectively, showing increases from the previous quarter[26] - The average duration of medium- and long-term interest rate bond funds rose by 0.81 years to 4.23 years, while medium- and long-term credit bond funds increased by 0.94 years to 3.42 years, marking the largest single-period increase on record[6] Group 4: Credit Quality and Composition - The proportion of high-rated credit bonds increased, with AAA-rated bonds in medium- and long-term pure bond funds rising by 1.23 percentage points to 96.10%[59] - The market value of credit bonds held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds was 3.70 trillion yuan, with an increase of 206.2 billion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds held 1.1 trillion yuan in credit bonds, reflecting an increase of 184.7 billion yuan[40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of bond funds rebounded in Q2 2025, with significant growth in pure - bond funds and slight increases in first - and second - tier bond funds [1][8]. - In terms of asset allocation, bond positions increased, and bond funds added leverage in Q2 2025 [2][13]. - The duration of medium - and long - term bonds climbed significantly in Q2 2025, and both medium - and long - term and medium - and short - term bond funds showed an upward trend in duration [3]. - Bond funds increased their holdings of both credit bonds and interest - rate bonds in Q2 2025 [3][28]. - In the heavy - position bonds, the proportion of high - grade bonds increased [4][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Fund Scale Rebounds, Pure - Bond Fund Scale Increases Significantly - In Q2 2025, the total net asset value of four types of bond funds was 9.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 561.7 billion yuan from the previous quarter. Among them, the scale of pure - bond funds expanded significantly, with medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increasing by 269.2 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan, and short - term pure - bond funds increasing by 172.4 billion yuan to 1.14 trillion yuan. The scale of first - and second - tier bond funds increased slightly, with first - tier bond funds reaching 850.2 billion yuan and second - tier bond funds reaching 807.7 billion yuan, increasing by 81.6 billion yuan and 38.5 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1 [1][8]. 3.2 Asset Structure: Bond Positions Rise - Overall, the four types of bond funds reduced their bond holdings by 458.4 billion yuan in Q1 and significantly increased their bond holdings by 800.7 billion yuan in Q2. As of Q2, the market values of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 7.76 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan, 961.1 billion yuan, and 796.1 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 396.2 billion yuan, 224.7 billion yuan, 125.3 billion yuan, and 54.5 billion yuan compared to Q1. The proportions of bond market values to total asset values were 97.75%, 97.81%, 96.64%, and 84.75% respectively, increasing by 0.25pct, 0.60pct, 0.37pct, and 0.31pct compared to Q1 [2][13]. 3.3 Funds Eased in Q2, Adding Leverage and Extending Duration - In Q2 2025, the arithmetic average leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, short - term pure - bond funds, first - tier bond funds, and second - tier bond funds were 120%, 114%, 117%, and 114% respectively, increasing by 3.22pct, 2.36pct, 3.97pct, and 1.79pct compared to Q1, showing an overall trend of adding leverage [2][16]. - In Q2 2025, the average duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.81 years to 4.23 years, and that of medium - and long - term credit bond funds increased by 0.94 years to 3.42 years. The average duration of medium - and short - term interest - rate bond funds increased by 0.19 years to 1.50 years, and that of medium - and short - term credit bond funds increased by 0.16 years to 1.08 years [3][17]. - The change in bond fund duration is consistent with the change in the average bond issuance term. As the average bond issuance term increases, the duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate and credit bond funds also extends [19]. 3.4 Bond Type Portfolio: Both Credit Bonds and Interest - Rate Bonds are Increased - Medium - and long - term pure - bond funds mainly hold interest - rate bonds, while short - term pure - bond funds mainly hold credit bonds. In Q2 2025, pure - bond funds increased their holdings of both interest - rate and credit bonds. The four types of bond funds significantly increased their credit bond holdings by 503 billion yuan and interest - rate bond holdings by 276.4 billion yuan. As of Q2 2025, medium - and long - term pure - bond funds held 3.7 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 3.88 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 206.2 billion yuan and 174.2 billion yuan respectively compared to Q1. Short - term pure - bond funds held 1.1 trillion yuan of credit bonds and 177.2 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 184.7 billion yuan and 39.3 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [3][28]. - First - and second - tier bond funds also increased their holdings of credit and interest - rate bonds. At the end of Q2, first - tier bond funds held 688.9 billion yuan of credit bonds and 185.3 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 78.6 billion yuan and 37.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter. Second - tier bond funds held 538.1 billion yuan of credit bonds and 160.1 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, increasing by 33.6 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan respectively compared to the end of the previous quarter [28]. - In Q2, the proportion of policy - financial bonds in the market value of interest - rate bonds decreased for all types of bond funds [43]. 3.5 Heavy - Position Bond Analysis: The Proportion of High - Grade Bonds Increases - In Q2 2025, among the heavy - position bonds of the four types of pure - bond funds and mixed first - and second - tier bond funds, interest - rate bonds had the highest proportion at 72.38%, followed by financial bonds at 15.97%, while the proportions of industrial and urban investment bonds were relatively small. Compared to Q1, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit in heavy - position bonds increased, while those of urban investment bonds, financial bonds, and industrial bonds decreased [4][48]. - In Q2 2025, the proportion of high - grade bonds in the heavy - position credit bonds of pure - bond and first - tier bond funds increased. In medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.23pct to 96.10%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.11pct to 3.27%. In short - term pure - bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.94pct to 94.75%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.08pct to 3.80%. In first - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds increased by 1.70pct to 93.89%, and that of AA + - rated bonds decreased by 1.52pct to 5.32%. In second - tier bond funds, the proportion of AAA - rated bonds decreased by 0.21pct to 97.68% [4][51]. - Among heavy - position urban investment bonds, the top four provinces or regions where the four types of public bond funds held the most urban investment bonds in Q2 2025 were Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Hunan. Compared to Q1, urban investment bonds in Shandong were increased, while those in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Hunan were significantly reduced [58].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 07 31 年 月 日 二季度货币基金规模超季节性回升。2025 年二季度货币基金资产净值达 到 14.21 万亿元，较上季度增加 9046 亿元，同比多增 2059 亿元。一季度 同业存款整改使得货币基金收益率下降以及伴随着货币基金规模的下降。 二季度货币基金规模回升且实现超季节性增长。 二季度货币基金相对于存款收益优势抬升，推动了货基规模增速回升。货 币基金资产净值同比增速由 3 月的 6.7%上升至 6 月的 7.9%。全市场货 币基金七日年化平均收益率由 3 月的 1.45%下降至 6 月的 1.34%，下降 幅度为 11.17bps。二季度存款挂牌利率降幅在 5bps-25bps 左右，大行 1 年定存挂牌利率下降 15bps 至 0.95%，3 年定存挂牌利率下降 25bps 至 1.25%。货币基金收益率与 1 年定存挂牌利率的利差由 3 月的 34.95bps 上升至 6 月的 38.78bps，货币基金相对于存款收益优势抬升，推动了货基 规模增速回升。 二季度资金和存单收益率相对货基利差震荡回落，机构申购货币基金的动 力可能增强 ...