证券研究报告 消费电子终端出货逐步回暖， 25年AI智能眼镜出货有望高增 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 电子团队 分析师：付强 S1060520070001（证券投资咨询） 郭冠君 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 邮箱： FUQIANG021@pingan.com.cn GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 2025年2月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 行业要闻及简评： 1）根据Canalys数据，2024年全球智能手机出货量达到12.2亿部，同比增长7%。市场份额方面，2024 年苹果iPhone出货量达到2.259亿部，位列全球市场首位，其次是三星，2024年全年出货量达2.229亿部，而小米稳居第三， 凭借中国大陆市场以及新兴市场的突出表现，2024年小米全球出货量同比增加15%至1.686亿部。2）根据TechInsights数 据，2024年全球笔记本电脑出货量同比+5%至2.037亿台，其中，联想以24%市占率位列全球市场首位，全年出货量同比+8% 至4860万台，其次为惠普，全球市场份额达21%，对应出货量为4240万台，而戴尔则位居全球市 ...

央企汽车业务聚力前行，汽车行业整合趋势强化 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 行 业 报 告 汽车 2025 年 02 月 09 日 行业点评 证券分析师 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 BQV509 WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn 王跟海 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523080001 BVG944 WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn 事项： 长安汽车、东安动力等多家兵装系上市公司发布公告，称接到间接控股股东中 国兵器装备集团有限公司通知，兵器装备集团正在与其他国资央企集团筹划重 组事项。同日，东风股份、东风科技等多家东风系上市公司发布公告，称接到 间接控股东风汽车集团有限公司通知，东风汽车集团有限公司正在与其他国资 央企集团筹划重组事项。 平安观点： 研 究 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 行 业 点 评 证 券 汽车·行业点评 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 2/ 3 投资建 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年02月10日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3304 | 1.01 | 1.63 | | 深证成份指数 | 10576 | 1.75 | 4.13 | | 沪深300指数 | 3893 | 1.30 | 1.98 | | 创业板指数 | 2174 | 2.53 | 5.36 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.01 | 0.23 | | 上证基金指数 | 6887 | 1.20 | 3.10 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 21134 | 1.16 | 4.49 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 7784 | 1.22 | 5.44 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 23478 | 0.69 | -0.20 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44303 | -0.99 | ...

证券分析师 2025 年 02 月 09 日 2025 年 1 月物价数据点评 服务价格与产能周期呈积极迹象 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 事项： 2025 年 1 月 CPI 同比增长 0.5%，涨幅较上月扩大 0.4 个百分点；PPI 同比- 2.3%，持平于上月。 平安观点： 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 宏 观 点 评 证 1 月 CPI环比由上月持平转为上涨 0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI同 比 连 续第四个月回升。其中，国际油价上涨和旅游、家庭服务价格强劲对 CPI 的贡献最为突出。1、食品价格影响 CPI 环比上涨约 0.24 个百分点，占 CPI 总涨幅三成多。食品价格上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Views - Domestic new energy storage policies are expected to fade out, while overseas offshore wind faces cost pressures [1][9]. - The wind power index increased by 3.69%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.71 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM valuation of approximately 20.14 times [4][20]. - The photovoltaic sector is witnessing significant advancements, including the launch of the world's first GW-level perovskite module production line, which is expected to enhance conversion efficiency and market potential [10][11]. - The energy storage sector is anticipated to experience a slowdown in demand growth in the short term due to the fading of mandatory storage policies, but long-term growth remains strong due to the ongoing need for flexible resources [11]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - Recent reports indicate that overseas offshore wind projects are facing increased costs due to inflation, currency depreciation, supply chain issues, and rising interest rates, leading to adjustments in business plans for projects in Japan and the U.S. [9][19]. - The U.S. offshore wind project in Virginia has seen its total cost increase by 9%, from $9.8 billion to $10.7 billion [19][36]. - The wind power index has shown a positive trend, with a notable increase in stock prices for leading companies in the sector [20][21]. Photovoltaics - The launch of the first GW-level perovskite module production line marks a significant milestone, with expectations for improved efficiency and production capabilities [10][11]. - The photovoltaic sector is projected to see substantial investment opportunities driven by new technologies, particularly in BC batteries and perovskite technology [10]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen - The recent policy changes indicate a shift away from mandatory energy storage requirements, which may temporarily impact demand growth but will ultimately lead to a healthier market environment [11]. - The energy storage market is expected to benefit from increased focus on performance and quality as new energy projects enter the market [11]. Investment Recommendations - For wind power, focus on companies like Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, and Yaxing Anchor Chain, as domestic offshore wind demand is expected to rise [11]. - In the photovoltaic sector, attention is drawn to companies such as Dier Laser, Longi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar, with a focus on the emerging trends in BC batteries [11]. - In energy storage, companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Shuneng Electric are highlighted due to their strong growth prospects [11].

证券研究报告 策略周报：AI创新引领春季躁动 证券分析师 | 魏伟 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 | | --- | --- | | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 | | 张亚婕 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060517110001 | | 靳旭媛 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070018 | 2025年2月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点|AI创新引领春季躁动 2 • 上周A股在AI板块带动下整体反弹，小盘更具弹性。海外方面，美国1月非农数据继续淡化降息预期，10Y美债利率收至4.5%，美元指数在 108附近高位震荡，美股三大股指全周下跌0%-1%，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%，美元兑人民币即期汇率稳定在7.3左右。国内方面，小盘更具 弹性，大盘红利表现居后，全周北证50指数上涨12.0%，上证50指数上涨0.9%，中证红利指数下跌1.2%。全A周度日均成交额环比提高 43.3%至1.6万亿元；股票型ETF全周净流出70.7亿元，科创等主题ETF有一定获利流出。上周，Deepseek引领的AI板块投资热度持续：AI 应用扩围深化，包括D ...

有色金属与新材料 2025 年 2 月 8 日 有色金属与新材料周报 美国关税政策扰动边际走弱，金属价格抬升 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-01 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：特朗普政策不确定性仍存，金价持续走高。 截至 2.7， COMEX金主力合约较春节前上涨 5.21%至 2886.1 美元/盎司；SPDR 黄金 ETF增加 1.3%至 868.5 吨。美联储 29 日宣布，将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在 4.25%至 4.5%之间不变，符合市场预期。美国 1 月 制造业 PMI50.9，环比上涨 1.6 个百分点。美国 1 月失业率达 4.0%， 环比下降 0.1 个百分点。春节期间金价涨势强劲，主要受美国关税政 策反复及其不确定性驱动。中期来看，特朗普政策不确定性仍为不可 忽视的黄金宏观定价逻辑。我们认为当前宏观背景下，美联储降息节 奏对金价影响或边际走弱，同时美国再通胀预期以及长期美元信用边 际走弱仍为黄金长期定价的核心逻辑，预计金价仍将震荡偏强运行。 工业金属：美 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [32] Core Viewpoints - Novo Nordisk's revenue for 2024 reached 290.4 billion Danish Krone (approximately 42.15 billion USD), representing a year-on-year growth of 25.03% [4][12] - The key product, semaglutide, is expected to challenge the title of "King of Drugs," with total revenue from three semaglutide products in 2024 amounting to 201.85 billion Danish Krone (approximately 29.30 billion USD) [4][17] - Novo Nordisk holds a 55.1% market share in the global GLP-1 market and 44% in the global insulin market, with insulin product revenue growing by 17% to 55.37 billion Danish Krone (approximately 8.04 billion USD) [4][21] Summary by Sections 2024 Financial Overview and Key Events - Novo Nordisk's main business segments include diabetes, obesity, and rare diseases, with diabetes revenue at 206.62 billion Danish Krone (approximately 29.73 billion USD), obesity revenue at 65.15 billion Danish Krone (approximately 9.36 billion USD), and rare diseases revenue at 18.6 billion Danish Krone (approximately 2.66 billion USD) [12][18] Core Product Sales Analysis - Semaglutide sales in 2024 included 120.34 billion Danish Krone (approximately 17.47 billion USD) from Ozempic, 23.30 billion Danish Krone (approximately 3.38 billion USD) from Rybelsus, and 58.21 billion Danish Krone (approximately 8.48 billion USD) from Wegovy, with Wegovy showing an impressive growth of 86% [17][21] - The insulin segment saw a revenue increase of 17% to 55.37 billion Danish Krone (approximately 8.04 billion USD), driven by long-acting insulin sales, which grew by 30% [21][22] 2025 Pipeline Milestones - Key milestones for 2025 include expected completion of regulatory approvals for semaglutide in treating chronic kidney disease and clinical trial data readouts for CagriSema [24][26] - The obesity segment anticipates submissions for semaglutide in treating heart failure and obesity, with several clinical trials expected to conclude in the first half of 2025 [24][26] 2025 Financial Outlook - Novo Nordisk projects a sales growth of 16%-24% and an operating profit increase of 19%-27% for 2025, with capital expenditures estimated at 65 billion Danish Krone and free cash flow between 75-85 billion Danish Krone [28][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" indicating an expected performance exceeding the market by over 20% within the next six months [36]. Core Insights - Chile has initiated a historic pension system reform aimed at addressing the shortcomings of its fully funded pension model, which has led to low pension benefits for low-income and informal workers. The reform includes increasing the contribution rate from 10% to 16% and allowing for new pension management companies to enhance competition [11][12]. - The Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board (CDPQ) is providing support to Quebec businesses to counter U.S. tariff threats through flexible financing, technology partnerships, and market expansion assistance [14]. - The UK government plans to allow companies to access surplus pension funds, estimated at £160 billion, to reinvest in core business operations and enhance employee benefits, thereby stimulating economic growth [15][16]. Summary by Sections Chile Pension Reform - Chile's Congress approved a reform proposal to address the inefficiencies of its fully funded pension system, which has resulted in inadequate benefits for many retirees. The reform aims to increase the contribution rate and introduce new management companies to improve investment returns [9][11][10]. Canadian Support for Businesses - CDPQ is set to assist Quebec enterprises facing U.S. tariffs by providing direct funding, facilitating technology transfers, and leveraging its extensive investment network to help businesses diversify and expand [12][14]. UK Pension Surplus Utilization - The UK government is reforming regulations to allow companies to utilize pension surpluses for business investments and employee benefits, potentially unlocking billions for economic development [15][16]. International Pension Developments - Indonesia is establishing a sovereign fund, Danantara, to manage state assets and attract investments for strategic projects, with an initial capital of approximately $61 billion [16]. - Kansas is considering legislation to allow its public pension fund to invest up to 10% of its assets in Bitcoin ETFs, potentially allocating around $3 billion [18]. - Sweden plans to consolidate its AP pension funds from five to three to enhance management efficiency and reduce costs [19]. Domestic Pension Policies - The Chinese government is promoting long-term capital market investments by increasing the proportion of insurance funds allocated to the A-share market, aiming for 30% of new premiums to be invested starting in 2025 [28][30]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is expanding the investment scope for personal pension funds to include eligible index funds [29]. Elderly Care Industry Developments - The Ministry of Civil Affairs in China has released new standards for family elderly care services to improve service quality and safety in the elderly care sector [31]. - Shanghai is implementing a three-year action plan to enhance the quality of elderly care institutions, focusing on medical integration and resident satisfaction [32].

石油石化 2025 年 2 月 9 日 石油石化周报 美对伊朗油制裁加严支撑油价，但原油基本面预期仍偏弱 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：美对伊朗油制裁加严利好油价，但原油基本面预期仍偏 弱。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 1 月 31 日-2025 年 2 月 7 日，WTI 原油期 货收盘价(连续)下跌 3.75%，布伦特油期货价下跌 2.71%。消息面 上，2 月 ...