Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the necessity of lowering mortgage rates to enhance home buying attractiveness, with a focus on potential market stabilization in the second half of 2026 to 2027 [4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming annual report season in March and April 2026, where companies with strong inventory structure and product capabilities are expected to benefit [4] - The report expresses optimism regarding Hong Kong real estate investment opportunities in 2026, following the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [4] Summary by Sections Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities reached 18,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 6.2%, while second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities also increased by 4.6% [11] - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory in 16 cities was 91.77 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 22.5 months [14] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a decline of 2.62% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [26] - The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 59.07 times, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 13.91 times, indicating a valuation at the 94.33 percentile over the past five years [26] Key Company Insights - China Overseas Development is highlighted as a leading central enterprise with a low valuation of 0.34 times PB and a dividend yield of 4.3% [6] - China Resources Land is noted for its stable dividend policy, maintaining around 10 billion RMB in dividends from 2021 to 2024, with a current dividend yield of 5.1% [6] - Other companies such as Country Garden, Greentown China, and China Merchants Shekou are also recommended based on their strong operational capabilities and market positioning [6]

Market Review - The MAGA policy framework has been established, leading to a rise in gold and a decline in the US dollar. In 2025, the Trump administration strongly promoted the "America First" policy, resulting in increased volatility in global capital markets, with gold leading the gains and the dollar weakening. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 17% and 22% respectively, while the dollar index fell by 8.8% throughout the year [3][9][10]. US Market - The US economy is expected to grow moderately in 2026, supported by both investment and consumption. The impact of previous tariffs is diminishing, and fiscal and monetary policies are showing effects. AI-related investments are anticipated to continue their strong momentum, while consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [3][4][9]. - Inflation remains sticky, with limited room for interest rate cuts. The expected range for rate cuts in 2026 is between 25-50 basis points, influenced by resilient wage growth and economic recovery [3][4][9]. - The political landscape, particularly the midterm elections, is likely to maintain a moderate policy tone, balancing economic stimulus with inflation control to create a favorable socio-economic environment [3][4][9]. US Stock Market - The US stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the AI narrative and recovery in cyclical and consumer sectors. Key investment opportunities include AI-related industries, which are still in the early stages of a potential bubble, and sectors benefiting from the "Great Beautiful Act" [3][4][9]. - The manufacturing and information sectors are projected to be the main beneficiaries of corporate tax cuts, while cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to recover as the economy stabilizes [3][4][9]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with structural opportunities emerging. The earnings growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automotive parts, and discretionary consumption is expected to improve significantly in 2026 [3][4][9]. - The liquidity environment is characterized by a decline in US Treasury yields, with foreign capital continuing to flow into the market. The strategic stability in US-China relations is likely to support risk appetite [3][4][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [57] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, gold prices have shown an upward trend, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4329.8 per ounce, a 2.42% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.3% increase to 1053 tons. The Fed's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% is expected to support gold prices in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4] - Industrial Metals: The fundamentals for copper are tightening, and there is an optimistic outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, the SHFE copper futures contract rose 1.4% to 94080 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 163,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. The LME copper inventory stood at 165,900 tons. The tightening supply of copper is expected to drive prices higher [5][6] - Aluminum: The LME aluminum futures contract fell 0.9% to $2875 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain stable [6] - Tin: The SHFE tin futures contract increased by 4.9% to 333,000 yuan/ton. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and export regulations in Indonesia are expected to tighten the market further [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on the long-term investment in gold [4][5] Industrial Metals - Copper: The market is experiencing tightening supply, with a recommendation to focus on the copper sector due to expected price increases [6] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to maintain high levels of volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Tin: Supply constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to potential price increases [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Recommended stock is Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Copper: Recommended stock is Luoyang Molybdenum - Aluminum: Recommended stock is Tianshan Aluminum [7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for patience in asset allocation as the A-share market experiences mixed performance, with technology sectors outperforming [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and dovish signals have influenced market sentiment, while concerns over AI bubbles have led to declines in major US indices [2] - Domestic economic indicators show resilience in exports and improvements in prices, with the Central Economic Work Conference setting a clear policy direction for 2025 [2] Recent Developments - November export growth rebounded to 5.9% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.9% [3][5] - Key export products such as automobiles and integrated circuits saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 53% and 34% respectively [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) maintained positive month-on-month growth [5][6] Financial Data - Social financing in November showed a year-on-year increase, with a total of 1,597 billion yuan added, although credit growth remained weak [7][8] - The report highlights a decline in new RMB loans, with a decrease of 1,163 billion yuan in November [7] Policy Tracking - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation, focusing on stabilizing the economy and enhancing domestic demand [10] - Key tasks include promoting technological innovation, green transformation, and stabilizing the real estate market [10] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74% [11] - The report notes that sectors such as communication, defense, and electronics led the market gains, reflecting a shift towards technology-driven growth [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the development of urban and rural resident income plans, which are expected to enhance the performance and valuation recovery of the consumer sector [3][9]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to see continued growth, with leading companies like Trip.com Group and Huazhu Hotels responding quickly to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can adapt to market changes and integrate products, brands, and channels effectively [3]. - The sports and outdoor apparel sector is expected to benefit from policy support, presenting investment opportunities in leading brands with market share growth potential [3]. - The media sector should focus on niche markets related to consumer sentiment, which may provide opportunities for companies with strong performance certainty [3]. - In the food and beverage sector, leading companies are expected to maintain market share through effective brand management, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [3]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3]. Summary by Sections Social Services - The industry is evolving, with a focus on companies that actively respond to changing consumer demands, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [3][8]. Macro Dynamics - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting actions [9]. Industry Dynamics - Disney's investment in OpenAI and its strategy to control fan engagement through authorized channels reflects a significant trend in the media industry [10]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The majority of liquor companies reported a deeper decline in net profits in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3][19]. - The high-end liquor segment remains resilient, with leading brands expected to enhance their market positions [3][20]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3][25]. Home Appliances - The electric two-wheeler industry faced a significant decline in production and sales in November 2025, indicating challenges in consumer demand [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [18] Core Viewpoints - The launch of AutoGLM by Zhiyu is expected to accelerate the development of the AI Agent mobile ecosystem, providing a public foundation for the industry to collaboratively enhance AI capabilities [3][4] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for innovation-driven growth and the urgent cultivation of new economic drivers, highlighting the importance of AI and technology innovation [7] - The competition in the global AI large model sector remains intense, which is likely to drive the widespread application of large models and sustain high demand in the AI computing market [14] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Zhiyu announced the open-source release of AutoGLM on December 9, which includes a trained core model, Phone Use capability framework, demo covering over 50 high-frequency Chinese apps, and documentation for quick onboarding [3][5] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 highlighted the urgency of fostering new economic drivers, with specific tasks including enhancing education and technology talent development, establishing international technology innovation centers, and improving AI governance [7] Company Announcements - Boshi Software announced the acquisition of a 38% stake in Fujian Shucun Technology Development Co., Ltd. for a total price of 17.77 million yuan [8] - Haiguang Information announced the termination of a major asset restructuring plan due to unfavorable market conditions [8] - Zhiyuan Huitong elected a new chairman and appointed senior management [8] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 1.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.08% [9] - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry is 53.2 times, with 107 out of 360 A-share component stocks rising, 250 falling, and 2 suspended [11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI computing stocks such as Haiguang Information, Industrial Fulian, and Inspur Information, and strongly recommends AI algorithm and application companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Zhongke Chuangda [14]

债券 2026 年美元债与汇率年度策略 共振与修复 证券分析师 平安观点： 债 券 报 告 债 券 年 度 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 liulu979@ pingan.com.cn 王佳萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060525070002 wangjiameng709@pingan.com.cn 市场回顾：美债利率整体下行，期限利差走阔。25 年全年来看，美债利率整 体震荡下行，期限利差走阔。Q1，受到政府削减支出、关税不确定性影响， 软数据走弱、衰退交易升温；Q2 关税落地暂缓、贸易谈判开启，风险情绪 改善；Q3，非农就业明显走弱而通胀温和，美联储重启降息；Q4，美国政 府停摆、叠加降息预期波折，风险资产承压，美债利率低位震荡。信用利差 方面，投资级中资美元债利差全年整体压缩，美国美元债信用利差则整体震 荡。 利率策略：经济温和修复，利率或保持宽幅震荡。我们预计明年在美联储降 息、财政宽松、AI 资本支出持续、贸易不确定性下降的背景下，美国经济可 能较今年温和修复；同时通胀由于关税影响消退而边际回落。节奏上，预计 上 ...

证券研究报告 分化格局，更宜求稳 ——2026年信用债年度策略 证券分析师 刘 璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 张君瑞 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519080001 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 摘要 2025年信用利差压缩，低等级利差大幅压缩，说明2025年信用债市场以"合"为大势。国开债收益率上升，信用债收益率上行相对较少；信用利差 多压缩，其中低等级和1Y压缩最多。趋势上看，中高等级信用利差上半年压缩下半年有所分化，低等级信用利差以下行趋势为主。2025年信用债供 给弱于利率债，需求相对平稳，信用风险进一步降低，支撑了信用利差、尤其是低等级信用利差的压缩。 2026年信用债不具备走熊的基础，但信用利差或有一定的走阔风险，分化或有所增大。（1）从绝对收益角度看，目前信用债收益率和信用利差偏 低，但3年期投资级信用债的套息空间接近50BP，考虑到26年或有1-2次降息，信用债不具备走熊的基础，因此信用债仍具有票息价值。（2）从相 对收益角度看，26年信用债供需格局或不如利率债。2026年信用债供给或边际提升，利率债或持平，信用债相对于利率债供给或增加。需求方面， 理 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

11月新增社融约2.5万亿，同比小幅多增1597亿元，对应单月社融增 速持平于8.5%。结构上，少增部分主要是政府债和信贷，政府债少 增1048亿元，其次是人民币贷款同比少增1163亿元。其他方面多同 比多增，其中：企业债券受益于科创债延续多增以及债贷相对性价 比的提升（1YLPR-1YAA+中短票收益率之差10-11月整体上升）， 实现同比多增1788亿元；非标融资在低基数下同比多增1328亿元， 人民币升值背景下外币贷款同比多增246亿元。 25年11月金融数据：社融改善，信贷和存款仍 有待修复 2025年12月13日 事项：2025年12月12日，央行发布25年11月金融数据，新增社融 24885亿，同比多增1597亿元，高于wind市场预期的2.02万亿；信贷 口径，新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，较市场预期 低1143亿元。 1 社融同比多增，主要是非标融资+企业债券多增贡献 3 存款活化趋势+流失压力，M1-M2剪刀差回落，存款结构上回落 分布相对均衡 M1、M2增速延续回落，M1-M2增速剪刀差下降。10月基数效应消退 后，M1增速重新回到回落区间，11月M1增速进一步回落1. ...