Core Insights - The resilience of the US economy has exceeded expectations, with geopolitical tensions escalating and the probability of Walsh becoming the new Federal Reserve Chairman significantly increasing, leading to adjustments in the US stock market [2] - The MSCI global index rose by 0.33%, while US stocks declined, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones falling by 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [2][17] - The US retail sales for November 2025 increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below the anticipated 215,000 [2][7] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, particularly regarding US interests in Greenland and military actions in Iran and Venezuela, which may impact market risk appetite [2][12] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with the dollar strengthening and gold prices potentially adjusting despite benefiting from safe-haven demand [2][20] Economic Fundamentals - US retail sales for November 2025 showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, with core retail sales (excluding automobiles) rising by 0.5% [7][8] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10, 2026, dropped to 198,000, indicating a robust labor market [7][8] Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical uncertainty index has significantly increased, reflecting rising tensions, particularly regarding US military interests in Greenland and actions against Iran and Venezuela [10][12] - The probability of Kevin Walsh succeeding as the Federal Reserve Chairman has risen following recent statements from President Trump [10][12] Market Performance - The US stock market has shown mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones experiencing declines, while European and emerging markets generally saw gains [2][17] - The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields increased by 6 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively, indicating a shift in market expectations [20] - The dollar index rose by 0.23% to 99.37, while commodities like gold and oil also saw price increases [20] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market showed overall gains, with the Hang Seng Index and related indices rising between 1.9% and 2.7% [35][31] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a PE ratio of 12.20, indicating a favorable position compared to historical averages [35][32] - Non-essential consumer sectors led the gains in Hong Kong, with significant inflows into technology and healthcare sectors [40][47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% within the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the 2025 financial statistics report, showing an increase in corporate loans and a slight improvement in corporate financing willingness, with December corporate loans increasing by CNY 580 billion year-on-year [3][16]. - The PBOC introduced eight monetary policies to support high-quality development of the real economy, including lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools and increasing loan quotas for small and medium-sized enterprises [4][18]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on the draft "Derivatives Trading Supervision Management Measures," aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for the derivatives market [5][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Statistics Report - In December 2025, new RMB loans increased by CNY 910 billion, with corporate loans rising by CNY 1.07 trillion, while household loans decreased by CNY 916 billion [14][16]. - The social financing scale increased by CNY 2.21 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 646.2 billion, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds [14][16]. Monetary Policy Support - The PBOC's measures include lowering interest rates on structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the quota for agricultural and small business loans by CNY 5 trillion [18]. - The policies aim to guide funds towards key sectors such as technology innovation and private enterprises, enhancing market resilience [4][18]. Derivatives Market Regulation - The draft measures cover all aspects of derivatives trading, including transaction rules, risk management, and regulatory responsibilities, aiming to support the stable development of the derivatives market [5][21]. - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of derivatives in managing risks and supporting the real economy while discouraging excessive speculation [21]. Industry Data - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced changes of -3.03%, -2.21%, -3.59%, and +1.34% respectively, with the CSI 300 Index down by 0.57% [10][23]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market reached CNY 4.0908 trillion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 21.2% [33][37].

Industrial Sector - Weekly average pig iron production decreased, while the apparent demand for major steel products increased[4] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate showed a seasonal decline this week[11] - The operating rate of float glass remained stable, with inventory levels decreasing[13] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 29.0% year-on-year as of January 15, with a slight improvement in growth rate compared to the previous week[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 1.39%, with the decline expanding by 0.53 percentage points compared to the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of home appliances decreased by 28.5% year-on-year as of January 2, although this was an improvement of 8.4 percentage points from the previous value[31] - The number of domestic flights decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop in growth rate compared to the previous week[30] External Demand - Port container throughput remained high, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% as of January 11, although this was a slight decline from the previous value[39] - Export container freight rates increased this week, indicating resilience in external demand[39] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index fell by 0.4%, while the Nanhua Non-ferrous Metal Index rose by 0.9%[43] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly, indicating mixed price trends in the agricultural sector[43]

Group 1 - The report highlights that since Q4 2025, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market, with significant phase rotation characteristics observed [2][5] - The underperformance is attributed to liquidity pressure and a lack of strong industry momentum in the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors that are thriving in the A-share market such as defense, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications [8][21] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is heavily concentrated in financial, software, internet, and pharmaceutical sectors, lacking representation in high-end manufacturing and defense industries, which are performing well in the A-share market [19][21] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong market could see a recovery in H1 2026 driven by three main factors: a potential dovish signal from the new Federal Reserve chairman, an expected recovery in profit growth for Hong Kong stocks, and accelerated commercialization of AI applications [30][31] - It is projected that the profit growth rate for Hong Kong stocks will enter a recovery phase in H1 2026, with expectations of a rebound in earnings for internet platforms and sustained high growth in sectors like information technology and healthcare [33][34] - The report emphasizes that the valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is attractive compared to A-shares, with leading companies in Hong Kong nearing similar valuations to their US counterparts, while benefiting from a larger domestic market for AI applications [37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [22] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Qianwen APP has fully integrated into Alibaba's ecosystem, enhancing the application scenarios of AI large models. This integration allows for a significant upgrade from "chatting" to assisting users in "doing tasks," showcasing the improvement in model capabilities and the deepening of application scenarios [4][9] - The demonstration effect of the Qianwen APP is expected to accelerate the promotion of large model applications by domestic internet giants, thereby speeding up the application process of large models in China. This acceleration will create a substantial demand for inference computing power, further driving the development of China's domestic computing power industry chain [4][9] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - On January 15, 2026, Alibaba held a product launch for the Qianwen APP in Hangzhou, announcing its full integration with various Alibaba ecosystem services such as Taobao, Alipay, and Fliggy. This integration enables AI shopping functions like ordering takeout and booking flights, marking a global first [4][7] - The Qianwen APP will launch over 400 AI task functions, positioning it as the first AI assistant capable of completing complex real-life tasks, transitioning the AI industry from "chatting" to "doing" [7][9] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index rose by 3.82% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57%, resulting in a 4.39 percentage point advantage [13] - As of the last trading day of the week, the overall P/E ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) for the computer industry was 61.4 times, with 249 out of 359 A-share component stocks rising in price [15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continuous attention to investment opportunities in the AI theme, particularly in AI computing power and AI algorithms and applications. Specific companies recommended include: 1. AI Computing Power: Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, Industrial Fulian, Inspur Information, Unisplendour, Zhongke Shuguang, Digital China, and Deepin Technology [18] 2. AI Algorithms and Applications: Strongly recommended are Hengsheng Electronics, Zhongke Chuangda, and Shengshi Technology, with additional recommendations for Daotong Technology, Kingsoft Office, iFLYTEK, and others [18]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [38] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue and gross margin exceeded guidance, with a significant increase in capital expenditure expected for 2026. In Q4 2025, TSMC achieved revenue of NT$10,460.9 billion (up 20.5% YoY, up 5.7% QoQ), translating to USD 33.73 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of USD 32.2-33.4 billion. The gross margin was 62.3%, up 2.8 percentage points from Q3 [2][5] - For the full year 2025, TSMC reported revenue of NT$38,090.5 billion (up 31.6% YoY), with a gross margin of 59.9% (up 3.8 percentage points YoY) and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion (up 46.4% YoY) [2][5] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was USD 40.9 billion, with expectations for 2026 to reach USD 52-56 billion (median of USD 54 billion), a substantial increase of 32% YoY [2][8] Summary by Sections TSMC Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$10,460.9 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit of NT$5,057.4 billion [5][6] - For the entire year of 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$38,090.5 billion, with a gross margin of 59.9% and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion [5][6] Revenue Structure - In 2025, TSMC's advanced process (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm at 24%, 5nm at 36%, and 7nm at 14% [2][5] - By application, TSMC's revenue from HPC, smartphones, IoT, and automotive grew by 48%, 11%, 15%, and 34% YoY, respectively, making up 58%, 29%, 5%, and 5% of total revenue [2][5] Market Trends - DRAM sellers are hoarding inventory, leading to a 10% increase in mainstream DDR4 prices. The average price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s rose by 9.64% due to suppliers and traders adopting a strategy of withholding stock [12][13] - The demand for AI-related power ICs is growing, and major manufacturers are reducing production, which is expected to lead to price increases in the eight-inch wafer foundry market [20]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The recent reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points is expected to help reduce storage costs and accelerate inventory clearance in commercial properties. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30%, which is anticipated to further decrease the cost of home ownership for residents [3] - The focus on Hong Kong property companies is increasing, with expectations for the Hong Kong real estate market to continue its upward trend in 2026. Key companies such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land have seen cumulative stock price increases of 18.9%, 12.4%, and 13.3% respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant stock price and performance elasticity for major Hong Kong property companies during the market recovery phase, citing historical performance data from previous market cycles [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, with a total of 12,000 units sold. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in January (up to the 16th) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.8% and a month-on-month decline of 46.4% [4] - The inventory of commercial properties in 16 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current inventory of 90.74 million square meters and a clearance cycle of 21.1 months [12] - The real estate sector saw a decline of 3.52% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 60.05, placing it in the 93.83 percentile of the past five years [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Companies with light historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [3] 2. Hong Kong property companies benefiting from market stabilization, including Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Poly Property [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to maintain stability while promoting high-quality development in China's capital markets, particularly following the introduction of new policies since 2024 [3][4] - The 2026 work meeting of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) focuses on enhancing market stability, serving the real economy, strengthening regulation to prevent risks, and improving the value of listed companies [3][4] - The report outlines specific tasks for 2026, including enhancing market stability, promoting long-term capital inflows, and improving regulatory enforcement to ensure fair trading practices [3][6] Group 2 - Policy highlights include the introduction of "timely counter-cyclical adjustments" to prevent significant market fluctuations, reflecting a proactive adaptation to current market conditions [3][6] - The report stresses the importance of long-term capital entering the market and proposes the introduction of various investment products and risk management tools to attract more long-term funds [3][6] - Regulatory enforcement will be strengthened, focusing on serious violations such as financial fraud and market manipulation, with an emphasis on improving accountability and enhancing the effectiveness of regulatory measures [3][7] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of capital market openness, aiming to enhance cross-border investment and financing convenience, and to attract foreign investment [6] - It continues to emphasize the need for reforms in stock and bond financing systems to better serve the real economy, including the integration of various market segments and improving the financing functions of equity and debt markets [6] - The report outlines plans to enhance the governance and value growth of listed companies, including the introduction of new regulations and guidelines to improve corporate governance and accountability [6] Group 4 - The market outlook suggests that the policy deployment will clarify the direction for high-quality development in the capital market, with short-term measures aimed at stabilizing market fluctuations and long-term strategies focused on improving company quality and increasing market openness [6] - It is anticipated that the A-share market will exhibit a pattern of "support below and room above," with a shift in market style towards balanced value growth, benefiting quality companies with solid fundamentals and governance [6] - The report recommends investment strategies aligned with policy support and industrial innovation, particularly in sectors benefiting from technological advancements and improving industry dynamics [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in oil prices. WTI crude futures closed up by 1.02% and Brent oil futures by 1.87% during the week of January 9 to January 16, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the U.S., are significant factors affecting oil prices. Iran's oil inventory has reached record levels, equivalent to about 50 days of production, due to Western sanctions [6]. - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain high prosperity due to supply quota constraints and favorable demand driven by policy support. The production quota for HFCs in 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report highlights the increased uncertainty in the Middle East, which is likely to impact oil prices in the short term. The geopolitical situation, including U.S. sanctions and military movements, is a critical factor [6][7]. - The report notes that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile international oil prices [7]. Fluorochemical - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a favorable environment due to supply constraints and policy-driven demand. The production quotas for HFCs have been adjusted, with significant increases in specific categories [6][7]. - The report indicates that the demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, supported by national subsidy policies, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026 [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is on an upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report suggests that there is potential for further price increases in this sector [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in the performance of various segments within the consumer sector, with a stable overall market performance but most sub-sectors underperforming compared to the broader market [4][6]. - There is an expectation for consumer demand to improve ahead of the Lunar New Year, driven by sufficient market liquidity [4]. - The tourism sector is showing potential for growth, with leading companies responding effectively to changing consumer demands [4]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that adapt quickly to market dynamics [4]. - The food and beverage sector is seeing a recovery in supply-demand relationships, particularly in dairy products, while the restaurant supply chain is stabilizing [4]. - In the liquor segment, leading companies are expected to maintain market share despite recent profit adjustments [4]. Market Performance Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% during the week of January 12-16, with the media sector rising by 3.34% while other sectors like food and beverage and agriculture saw declines of 2.03% and 3.49% respectively [6][8]. Social Services - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [4]. Industry Dynamics - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to enhance structural monetary policy support, which may positively impact consumer spending and economic recovery [10]. - The Philippines has announced visa-free entry for Chinese citizens, which could boost tourism [11]. Company Announcements - Companies like Giant Biological and Proya are making strategic moves, such as product approvals and share buybacks, indicating proactive management in response to market conditions [13][19]. - The report notes significant developments in the liquor industry, including the launch of premium products and partnerships for promotional events [20].