证券研究报告 分化格局，更宜求稳 ——2026年信用债年度策略 证券分析师 刘 璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 张君瑞 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519080001 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 摘要 2025年信用利差压缩，低等级利差大幅压缩，说明2025年信用债市场以"合"为大势。国开债收益率上升，信用债收益率上行相对较少；信用利差 多压缩，其中低等级和1Y压缩最多。趋势上看，中高等级信用利差上半年压缩下半年有所分化，低等级信用利差以下行趋势为主。2025年信用债供 给弱于利率债，需求相对平稳，信用风险进一步降低，支撑了信用利差、尤其是低等级信用利差的压缩。 2026年信用债不具备走熊的基础，但信用利差或有一定的走阔风险，分化或有所增大。（1）从绝对收益角度看，目前信用债收益率和信用利差偏 低，但3年期投资级信用债的套息空间接近50BP，考虑到26年或有1-2次降息，信用债不具备走熊的基础，因此信用债仍具有票息价值。（2）从相 对收益角度看，26年信用债供需格局或不如利率债。2026年信用债供给或边际提升，利率债或持平，信用债相对于利率债供给或增加。需求方面， 理 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

11月新增社融约2.5万亿，同比小幅多增1597亿元，对应单月社融增 速持平于8.5%。结构上，少增部分主要是政府债和信贷，政府债少 增1048亿元，其次是人民币贷款同比少增1163亿元。其他方面多同 比多增，其中：企业债券受益于科创债延续多增以及债贷相对性价 比的提升（1YLPR-1YAA+中短票收益率之差10-11月整体上升）， 实现同比多增1788亿元；非标融资在低基数下同比多增1328亿元， 人民币升值背景下外币贷款同比多增246亿元。 25年11月金融数据：社融改善，信贷和存款仍 有待修复 2025年12月13日 事项：2025年12月12日，央行发布25年11月金融数据，新增社融 24885亿，同比多增1597亿元，高于wind市场预期的2.02万亿；信贷 口径，新增人民币贷款3900亿元，同比少增1900亿元，较市场预期 低1143亿元。 1 社融同比多增，主要是非标融资+企业债券多增贡献 3 存款活化趋势+流失压力，M1-M2剪刀差回落，存款结构上回落 分布相对均衡 M1、M2增速延续回落，M1-M2增速剪刀差下降。10月基数效应消退 后，M1增速重新回到回落区间，11月M1增速进一步回落1. ...

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform" compared to the market, expecting the industry index to perform better than the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The medical device bidding environment remains robust, with a significant trend towards high-end products. Since 2025, the release of equipment update policy dividends has led to sustained market demand growth, keeping bidding activities at a high level. Monthly procurement scales from July to November 2025 were 13.4 billion, 14.6 billion, 16.4 billion, 16.4 billion, and 20.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +24%, +31%, +2%, +14%, and +0% [3][11]. - The bidding environment is benefiting leading companies in the industry, with procurement scales for ultrasound, CT, MRI, DR, DSA, and gastrointestinal endoscopes showing significant year-on-year growth in November 2025 [4][12][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end and intelligent medical devices, suggesting that leading domestic companies like Mindray, United Imaging, Kaili Medical, and Aohua Endoscopy should be closely monitored for their strategic positioning in the market [5][20]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The medical device market is experiencing a strong revival, with a notable focus on high-end imaging equipment such as CT, MRI, and ultrasound, which together account for nearly 62% of the total bidding amount [3][11]. - In November 2025, the procurement scale for ultrasound was 2.301 billion (yoy +17%), CT was 2.605 billion (yoy +26%), MRI was 2.394 billion (yoy +6%), DR was 460 million (yoy +50%), and DSA was 1.016 billion (yoy +4%) [12][14]. Company Performance - Domestic companies are aligning with industry trends, with Mindray achieving 1.318 billion (yoy +12%), United Imaging at 1.433 billion (yoy +30%), Kaili Medical at 247 million (yoy +62%), and Aohua at 109 million (yoy +60%) in November 2025 [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading enterprises that are enhancing their high-end and intelligent product offerings, as the bidding environment is expected to remain favorable due to ongoing policy support for equipment updates [5][20].

Overview - The report highlights that the energy storage lithium battery industry is entering a new profit cycle, driven by strong demand and improved supply dynamics [1][17]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is experiencing a global high prosperity, with significant policy and market support leading to rapid development [5][19]. - As of September 2025, China's wind and solar power accounted for 46% of installed power capacity, while new energy storage only represented 3% and 6% of total installed capacity and new energy capacity, respectively, indicating substantial growth potential [5][28]. - The exit of mandatory storage policies has allowed independent storage to emerge as a profitable asset, with improved pricing mechanisms and market conditions [5][36]. - Domestic energy storage projects have seen a significant increase, with new installations reaching 43.7 GW in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 103% [20][24]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is benefiting from the growth in energy storage demand, with the industry moving out of a price decline cycle and entering a phase of volume and profit recovery [15][17]. - The demand for energy storage batteries is rising, and the sales of power batteries remain robust, contributing to a healthy growth outlook [15][17]. - The supply side is improving, with many companies still operating at a loss or minimal profit, leading to a strong desire to increase prices amid high demand [5][15]. Solid-State Batteries - Solid-state batteries are seen as a key technology to overcome the performance limitations of lithium batteries, with ongoing industrialization efforts supported by policy and market participants [5][17]. - The demand for solid-state batteries is expected to grow in applications requiring high energy density and safety, such as low-altitude flying vehicles and humanoid robots [5][17]. - Key materials and equipment for solid-state battery production are making progress, with significant technological barriers that favor advanced participants in the industry [5][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the energy storage and lithium battery sectors, recommending investments in leading companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, Haimo Technologies, and CATL [8][12]. - The solid-state battery sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on companies involved in key materials and equipment [8][12].

Group 1: Economic Confidence and International Trade - The central government shows increased confidence in international trade, with China's trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2025[6] - China's export share reached 15.1% in the 12 months leading up to July 2025, up from 14.9% in 2024, indicating a recovery in global competitiveness[6] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus remains on expanding domestic demand, with a shift towards service consumption and innovative products in subsidy policies for 2026[8] - The meeting emphasized the need to optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, indicating a potential shift in consumption subsidies towards sectors like elderly products and smart vehicles[9] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize investment, with measures including increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[9] - New policy financial tools are expected to be introduced to stimulate private investment, with a focus on digital economy and urban renewal projects[10] Group 4: Macro Policy Adjustments - The macro policy direction has shifted to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," indicating a more cautious approach compared to last year's focus on stability[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to remain at 4% for 2026, with an increase in special bonds to support key projects[12] Group 5: Real Estate Market Stability - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by controlling supply and encouraging the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[16] - Reforms to the housing provident fund are proposed to broaden its usage and improve access for first-time buyers[17] Group 6: Supply-Side Optimization - The meeting acknowledged the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand, emphasizing the need for supply-side reforms[19] - The focus on "anti-involution" aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent rapid price declines in key industries[20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on inventory reduction and quality supply. The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of controlling new supply, reducing existing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing [3][6]. - The construction of "good houses" is a continuing trend, with a push for high-quality development in the real estate sector. The report anticipates that companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality will benefit from this trend [6]. - The reform of the housing provident fund system is a new focus, aiming to enhance the efficiency and flexibility of fund usage, which includes optimizing loan application conditions and supporting the purchase of affordable housing [6]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The report notes that despite a decline in the inventory of unsold properties since March 2025, the absolute scale remains high at 760 million square meters as of October. This high inventory level and weak consumer sentiment are significant barriers to market recovery [6]. - The acquisition of existing properties is seen as an effective measure for inventory reduction, with expectations for continued progress in this area [6]. "Good House" Construction - The report outlines a commitment to promoting the construction of "good houses," which aligns with the 14th Five-Year Plan's goals for high-quality real estate development. This initiative is expected to be a medium-term trend benefiting companies with strong inventory structures and product capabilities [6]. Housing Provident Fund Reform - The report discusses the deepening of housing provident fund reforms, which aim to improve the conditions for converting commercial loans to public loans and enhance the withdrawal policies for housing provident funds. These reforms are expected to increase the efficiency of fund usage [6].

非银行金融 2025 年 12 月 12 日 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-下调保险投资股 票风险因子，培育壮大耐心资本-强于大市 20251207 证券分析师 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业半年度策略报告-非银行金融-高质 量发展引领价值重估，头部公司更具韧性——非银金 融行业 2025 年中期策略报告-强于大市 20250701 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-人身险预定利率 再下调，分红险具备比较优势-强于大市 20250727 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-中金拟吸收合并 东兴+信达，证券业供给侧改革加速-强于大市 20251120 保险业 2026 年度策略报告 攻守兼备，乘势而上 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 | 李冰婷 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040002 | | | LIBINGTING419@pingan.com.cn | | 许 淼 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525020001 | | | XUMIAO533@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 年 度 策 略 报 证 券 研 ...

Overview - The renewable energy sector saw a 42% increase in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.78 percentage points, driven by strong demand for energy storage and the gradual implementation of anti-involution policies [11][14]. Solar Energy - The domestic solar market is expected to face pressure in 2026, with new installations projected to decline to 200-250 GW, down from an estimated 300 GW in 2025, which represents an 8% year-on-year growth [5][28]. - In 2025, China added 252.9 GW of new solar capacity from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 71.8 GW, with a significant portion of installations occurring in the first half of the year due to policy influences [5][18]. - Global solar installations are expected to reach 655 GW in 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, but demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly decline in 2026 due to various market challenges [36][37]. - The supply side is undergoing restructuring due to anti-involution policies, with significant reductions in production and inventory pressures observed in the polysilicon market [40][45]. - The BC battery technology is gaining traction, with expected rapid increases in penetration rates, potentially becoming the mainstream technology by 2030 [48][53]. Wind Energy - The domestic wind power market is projected to maintain stable growth, with onshore wind installations expected to remain flat in 2026, while offshore wind installations are forecasted to increase by over 40% to approximately 11.2 GW [5][16]. - The wind turbine market is experiencing a recovery in profitability, supported by stable pricing and expansion into overseas markets, creating new growth opportunities [16][18]. - The development of hydrogen and ammonia markets is expected to provide additional growth avenues for wind turbine manufacturers [5][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting key companies to watch in wind energy, such as Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Yunda Co., and in solar energy, including LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [5][7].

债券 2025 年 12 月 11 日 美联储那些事儿 美联储议息会议：政策利率处于"有利位置" 证券分析师 图表1 鲍威尔发布会表态要点 资料来源： FED ，平安证券研究所 9月以来的降息使当前利率整体处于中性的区间(within a broad range o f estimates o f neutral)和有利的位置 （well positioned t o wait too see how the economy evolved），可以等待观察经济的演变，美联储将谨慎评 估即将到来的数据。 在评估家庭调查数据时必须谨慎，因为劳动力市场数据收集方式可能存在一些问题，导致数据出现偏差， 不仅波动性更大，还会出现扭曲的情况；同时1 0月和1 1月部分数据可能未能收集齐全，美联储需要以谨慎 和怀疑的态度来审视这些数据。 不认为当前存在加息的预期。 就储备管理购买（reserve management purchase），因为4月15日是纳税日，居民和企业缴税可能导致准备金季节 性回落，所以未来几个月将保持较高的购债规模；此外，准备金规模需要跟随银行体系和经济规模增长，这可能 导致准备金需要每月增加200- ...