行 业 点 评 行 业 报 告 行业点评 单月销售增速转正，到位资金延续改善 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业年度策略报告*房地产*止跌回稳， 价值回归*强于大市20241214 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |--------|--------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 郑茜文 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn | | | | 证 券 研 究 报 告 事项： 国家统计局公布2024年1-11月全国房地产开发投资及销售数据，其中投资额 9.4万亿元，同比下降10.4%；房屋施工72.6亿平米，同比下降12.7%；新开工 6.7亿平米，同比下降23%；竣工4.8亿平米，同比下降26.2%；新建商品房销 售面积8.6亿平米，同比下降14.3%；销售额8 ...

中国本赛 PING VN 证券研究报告 关注服装面辅料制造订单表现 轻工纺服行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 新消费团队 分析师：王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 2024年12月16日 型业化生质量简单 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 周观点 投资策略 基于可选消费修复逻辑，我们认为，服装制造及出口相关企业或将迎来机遇，且服装及家居出海企业或将延续红利。 同时，服装品牌企业经过估值调整后，或将迎来新一轮行情。投资主线如下： 主线一：自上而下，优选市场份额提升及具备估值性价比的细分赛道头部企业。其中，推荐关注服装制造相关的出 口企业的投资机会。建议关注：申洲国际、华利集团、伟星股份等。 主线二：自下而上，优选业绩确定性较强及股息率较高的白马股。其中，建议重点关注有边际改善的服装品牌企业， 以及分红派息率稳健的家纺头部企业。建议关注：安踏体育、波司登等。 E 周 涨跌 本周回顾 上周纷服板块+4.23%，轻工板块+3.61%，同期沪深300指数-1.01%;在申万一级行业中，有14个板块上涨，有17个板块下跌， 纺织服装行业在31个一级 ...

行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 告 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色与新材料 2024 年 12 月 16 日 化工新材料周报 市场担忧俄罗斯石油受欧美新一轮制裁，油价应声上涨 强于大市（维持） 核心观点： 行情走势图 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 23-01 23-06 23-11 24-04 24-09 沪深300 基础化工 新材料 | --- | --- | --- | |--------|---------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 陈潇榕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | | S1060523110001 | | | | | chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn | | 马书蕾 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | | S1060524070002 | | | | mashulei362@pingan.com.cn | | 石油化工：市场担忧俄罗斯石油受欧美新一轮制裁，油价应声上涨。 据 i ...

中国本在 PING VN 证券研究报告 持续关注梯媒广告投放情况 传媒行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 新消费团队 分析师：王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 2024年12月16日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 雪业《生活屏高单 周观点 投资策略 由于国家利好政策的加持激励，文化娱乐产业供给端将呈现多元增长趋势，传媒行业也将持续修复上行。基于可选消费的稳健修复逻辑，传 媒行业细分领域或将迎来上行机遇。建议布局业绩确定性较强、股息率高且分红率稳健的行业头部企业。具体来看： 1）游戏及IP：由于国家鼓励文娱消费政策的支持，游戏板块或将迎来新一轮产品周期。同时，在AIGC等技术加持下，游戏公司有望实现降 本增效。我们看好行业头部游戏公司的运营表现，建议关注三七互娱，完美世界，吉比特等。 2)影视院线：行业供给端逐渐恢复，影片数量呈较好的增长趋势，经过不断的修复与调整，头部公司业绩逐渐修复。我们认为，政策端的持 续加持及国家对文娱消费的鼓励，将助力影视院线行业景气向上。加之，影视院线行业估值性价比较高，我们看好头部院线及制作头部企业 业绩稳 ...

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry has shown strong performance since Q3 2024, driven by national stimulus policies and a recovery cycle, with the semiconductor index rising by 24.49% as of December 10, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 by 8.04 percentage points [4] - WSTS forecasts a 19% growth rate for the semiconductor industry in 2024, reaching a market size of over $600 billion, primarily driven by memory and processors [4] - In 2025, AI will remain the main driver of growth, with the memory market stabilizing and other sectors such as analog, optoelectronics, and power devices also recovering [4] AI and Domestic Substitution - AI will continue to be the primary growth driver in 2025, with strong downstream capital expenditure stimulating demand for core products like GPUs, ASICs, HBM, and switching chips [4] - Domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry is expected to deepen, with domestic companies gaining market opportunities in areas like processors, power, analog, and logic chips [4] - The US government has added 140 Chinese semiconductor-related companies to the Entity List, prompting domestic companies to accelerate their efforts in achieving self-sufficiency in EDA tools, IP, materials, equipment, manufacturing, and packaging [4] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with a more balanced and healthy growth structure compared to 2024 [4] - Key investment directions include AI-related sectors, with recommendations for companies like Hygon Information (processor chips), Huahai Chengke (HBM), and Shengke Communication (network chips) [4] - Domestic substitution opportunities are highlighted in EDA tools (recommending Empyrean Technology), packaging (recommending Tongfu Microelectronics), and materials (recommending Dinglong and Anji Technology) [4] Market Performance and Trends - The semiconductor index rebounded strongly in late Q3 2024, with the PE TTM (trailing twelve months) reaching 78.35x, indicating high valuations [26] - The semiconductor equipment sub-sector rose by 35.20% in 2024, while packaging and digital chip design sectors also saw significant gains [26] - Global semiconductor sales are expected to grow by 11.2% in 2025, with integrated circuits, sensors, and optoelectronics sectors showing positive growth [54] AI and Computing Chips - AI-related semiconductors, particularly GPUs and ASICs, have driven significant growth in 2024, with companies like NVIDIA and AMD experiencing rapid revenue increases [59] - Domestic AI semiconductor companies, such as Hygon Information and Cambricon, are benefiting from the AI wave, with their revenues growing rapidly [62] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology is evolving rapidly, with companies like SK Hynix and Micron increasing their HBM3E shipments [68] Advanced Packaging - Advanced packaging is expected to account for 53% of the total packaging market by 2028, driven by AI, HPC, and automotive applications [101] - 2.5D/3D packaging is the fastest-growing segment, with a CAGR of 30.5% from 2023 to 2029, driven by high-performance computing and AI [109] - Leading companies like NVIDIA and AMD are leveraging advanced packaging to improve performance and reduce costs, with NVIDIA's H200 achieving 4.8TB/s interconnect speeds [104] Storage and Other Sectors - The storage market, particularly DRAM and NAND Flash, has entered a period of steady growth after a strong recovery in 2024 [83] - The MCU and power device sectors are still in the recovery phase, with companies like Infineon facing challenges due to weak demand and high inventory levels [91] - The smartphone and wearable markets are recovering, with domestic companies in SoC, analog, and CIS chips showing strong growth [74]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the energy and chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook despite the current downturn in energy prices [4] Core Views - Traditional energy is still in a price decline cycle, with supply expected to increase slightly in 2025, while demand recovery remains uncertain, leading to a weak fundamental outlook and a potential further decline in price levels, though the year-on-year decline may narrow [4] - The coal market in 2024 saw a decline in both thermal and coking coal prices due to weak demand, with thermal coal prices expected to stabilize in 2025, while coking coal prices may see a marginal recovery as downstream steel and construction markets bottom out [5] - Crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in 2025 due to oversupply concerns, with OPEC+ potentially phasing out voluntary production cuts and increased production from the Americas, though strong support is expected around $60/barrel for Brent crude [6] Coal Market Analysis - Thermal coal prices in 2024 were under pressure due to weak demand from the power sector and high inventory levels, with prices expected to stabilize in 2025 due to supply-side support from long-term contracts and high transportation costs for coal from Xinjiang [5] - Coking coal prices in 2024 were driven down by weak demand from the steel and construction sectors, with a potential recovery in 2025 as macroeconomic policies take effect and downstream demand shows signs of improvement [5] - Coal supply in 2025 is expected to increase, particularly from Shanxi, with imports also likely to remain strong due to price advantages from countries like Australia and Mongolia [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil prices in 2024 were influenced by geopolitical risks and demand concerns, with prices expected to decline further in 2025 due to oversupply and weaker demand from major economies like China and the US [6] - OPEC+ may gradually phase out voluntary production cuts in the second half of 2025, leading to increased supply, while demand growth is expected to slow due to economic deceleration in Europe and the US, as well as the ongoing substitution of traditional energy by renewables [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation energy companies, particularly in the coal and oil sectors, as they offer stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - Specific recommendations include coal companies like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shanxi-based companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as oil and gas companies like PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC [9]

行 业 报 告 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 电力设备及新能源 2024 年 12 月 15 日 "明阳天成号"正式投运，中电建 51GW 组件集采开标 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

平安证券 行 业 年 度 策 略 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 12 月 15 日 电子 电子行业 2025 年年度策略报告 坚定科技自主，拥抱 AI+ 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | 平安观点： 2024 年申万电子跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.05pct：2024 年 A股电子指数整体 呈现上涨趋势，截至 12 月 7 日申万电子指数上涨 19.85%，同期上证综指 上涨 14.43%，沪深 300 指数上涨 15.80%，申万电子跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.05pct 。2021Q1-2023Q1 随着手机、电视等下游终端需求疲软，电子 行业营收增速回落。2023Q4 以来手机需求回暖，电子行业营收同比增速 持续正增长，2024Q3 电子行业营收达到 10124 亿元，同比增长 16%。截 止到 12 月 7 日，申万电子板块 PE（TTM）为 55 倍，处于过去 5 年中 77% 左右的分位。 制造强国&自主可控背景下，关注设备国产替代机会：1）政策扶植力度加 码：中美贸易摩擦后供应链安全逐 ...

2024年12月16日 其 他 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 国内市场 \n指数 \n上证综合指数 | 收盘 \n3392 | 涨跌幅（ % ） \n1 日 \n-2.01 | 上周 \n-0.36 | 今日重点推荐： \n【平安证券】行业年度策略报告 * 医药 * 从支付来源探寻新增量，关 注创新、出海、设备更新与消费复苏 * 强于大市 20241215 | | 深证成份指数 | 10713 | -2.23 | -0.73 | 研究分析师 ...

平安证券 策 略 报 告 魏伟 投资咨询资格编号 周畅 投资咨询资格编号 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略配置 2024 年 12 月 15 日 全球大类资产配置年度报告 水无定势，见可而进—2025 年海外市场展望 证券分析师 平安观点： S1060513060001 BOT313 WEIWEI170@pingan.com.cn S1060522080004 ZHOUCHANG115@pingan.com.cn 研究助理 校星 一般从业资格编号 S1060123120037 XIAOXING407@pingan.com.cn 2024 年回顾：美国经济循环顺畅，韧性持续显现。24 年美国经济在高利 率环境下依然维持较强韧性，从结构上看，韧性主要来源于居民消费。尽 管超额储蓄于今年一季度已耗尽，但"居民超额储蓄—消费—企业盈利— 收入"的传导链条正逐步形成"收入—消费—企业盈利—收入"的正向循 环，支撑美国经济持续上行，其中高收入家庭或为循环的主要推手。 2025 年展望：美国经济软着陆、再通胀、缓降息，海外政策转向及流动 性变化是最大变量，不确定性加剧 展望 2025 年，我们认为美国经济基准情形为软着陆、再通 ...