公 司 报 告 房地产 2025年10月28日 天健集团(000090.SZ) 城市建设稳步推进，融资渠道保持畅通 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:3.86元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】天健集团（000090.SZ）*半年报点评* 综合开发求变突围，城市更新积极推进*推荐 20250824 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 事项： 公司公布2025年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入99.6亿元，同比增长7.8%， 归母净利润0.2亿元，同比下降93.9%。 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 26,999 | 21,357 | 21,785 | 22,002 | 22,662 | | YOY(%) | 2.0 | -20.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4][12] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its performance despite short-term pressures, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The gross profit margin improved in Q3, indicating strong brand and price control capabilities [4][7] - The company reported a revenue of 3.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, and a net profit of 540 million yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year [4][7] - The financial situation remains stable, with operating cash flow increasing to 950 million yuan, up from 810 million yuan in the previous year [7] Summary by Sections Major Data - Total market capitalization is 16.4 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1,592 million shares and a net asset per share of 3.04 yuan [1] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are 6.27 billion yuan, 5.75 billion yuan, 6.04 billion yuan, and 6.64 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.8%, -8.2%, 5.0%, and 10.0% [6][10] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 953 million yuan, 855 million yuan, 956 million yuan, and 1.10 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -33.5%, -10.2%, 11.7%, and 15.5% [6][10] Profitability Ratios - The gross profit margin is projected to be 41.7% in 2024, 40.0% in 2025, 41.0% in 2026, and 42.0% in 2027 [10] - The net profit margin is expected to be 15.2% in 2024, 14.9% in 2025, 15.8% in 2026, and 16.6% in 2027 [10] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 990 million yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 866 million yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 52% [8] - The capital market is performing well, and cost control measures have shown positive results, contributing to the company's strong performance [8] - The company has increased its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a positive outlook for its financial performance [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 558.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 231.59 billion yuan, up 37.86% [4] - The total assets reached 20,263 billion yuan, an increase of 18.45% compared to the end of the previous year, while the net assets attributable to shareholders rose by 7.48% to 3,150 billion yuan [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the period was 1.56 yuan, with a book value per share (BVPS) of 18.91 yuan [4] Business Segment Performance - The company's net income from various business segments for Q3 2025 showed the following year-on-year changes: brokerage +52.90%, investment banking +30.88%, asset management +16.37%, interest income -16.88%, proprietary trading +44.38%, and other businesses -93.52% [8] - The brokerage business accounted for 19.60% of total revenue, while proprietary trading made up 56.62% [8] Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the capital markets, with an anticipated increase in market share for its margin financing business [11] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned as a leading brokerage firm, with enhanced competitive barriers due to its comprehensive service capabilities [11] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 has been raised to 306 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.2% [11]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the credit bond market is expected to face increased supply and weakened demand in the fourth quarter of 2025, leading to potential widening of credit spreads [2][38] - It suggests a strategy of focusing on short to medium-term bonds, particularly in sectors with weaker supply and relatively higher yields, such as local government bonds and financial bonds [2][42] Part 1: Market Overview - In Q3 2025, the yield on government bonds rose, and credit bond yields generally increased, with credit spreads widening [9][14] - The supply of credit bonds increased year-on-year, while the net financing of government bonds decreased, contributing to the widening of credit spreads [14][18] Part 2: Q4 Strategy - The report recommends a downward strategy for short to medium-term bonds in Q4, as the current interest rate environment favors short-term debt [42][43] - It highlights that the credit spread may widen due to low demand and the impact of new regulations on public fund redemptions [38][39] Part 3: Sector-Specific Strategies Local Government Bonds - Focus on local government bonds in regions with better credit quality, as policies aimed at debt clearance are expected to alleviate credit risks [3][49] - The report notes that the yield on local government bonds in better regions is currently higher than in poorer regions [55] Financial Bonds - Attention is drawn to the value of older financial bonds, as their after-tax returns are expected to be higher than new issues due to discrepancies in implied tax rates [59][62] - The consolidation of rural commercial banks is seen as a structural opportunity to enhance their risk resilience [62][69] Industrial Bonds - The report emphasizes the potential for returns in state-owned real estate and construction bonds, driven by policies aimed at debt clearance and recovery [70][73] - It notes that the government’s focus on preventing defaults in the real estate sector is beneficial for state-owned enterprises [73]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The wind turbine manufacturing situation is improving, and hydrogen-ammonia methanol projects are providing incremental business for power station operations [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 19.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.64% [3] - The company has a strong order backlog, with external orders totaling 49.87 GW, including 7.16 GW from overseas [6] - The company is advancing hydrogen-ammonia methanol projects, which are expected to contribute to performance growth [6] Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, the projected revenue is as follows: 56.699 billion yuan in 2024, 77.314 billion yuan in 2025, 85.215 billion yuan in 2026, and 91.968 billion yuan in 2027 [5] - The projected net profit for the same period is: 1.860 billion yuan in 2024, 3.693 billion yuan in 2025, 4.918 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.206 billion yuan in 2027 [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 13.8% in 2024, 13.7% in 2025, 15.5% in 2026, and 16.4% in 2027 [5] Business Performance - The company achieved a wind turbine sales capacity of 18.4 GW in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 90.01% [6] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 2025 was 13.00%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points from the previous quarter [6] - The company is also expanding its self-operated wind power projects, with a total installed capacity of 8,688 MW as of the end of Q3 [6]

Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since August 25, 2025, the RMB has experienced a smooth appreciation trend, ending a previous three-week narrow fluctuation[6] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain above 7 for the year, with significant appreciation dependent on the stability of the Chinese economy and high-quality development[3] - The RMB has a considerable "rebound" potential, contingent on the pace of the decline in the US-China interest rate differential[7] Group 2: Market Influences - Recent adjustments in the RMB central parity rate are primarily driven by a weakening US dollar, aligning with normal pricing mechanisms[17] - The RMB's relative weakness against the US dollar reflects the impact of the second round of US-China trade disputes, with a maximum depreciation of 9.2% noted[9] - The RMB's exchange rate is closely related to the US-China interest rate differential, with a significant correlation observed since 2022[14] Group 3: Capital Flow Dynamics - Positive changes in cross-border capital flows are noted, including a sustained high trade surplus and a slowdown in China's outward direct investment[43] - The average monthly trade surplus in foreign exchange payments increased from $33.9 billion to $70.7 billion, indicating a doubling effect[27] - The shift from "currency hoarding" to "currency settlement" among foreign trade enterprises has catalyzed RMB appreciation, with the critical threshold around 7[30] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include the potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, deterioration in US-China trade negotiations, and unexpected resilience in the US economy[2] - The RMB's appreciation may face challenges if the market's expectations for its stability do not solidify, particularly around the 7 mark[41]

ETF Market Overview - As of October 24, the performance of ETF products varied, with the Shanghai 50 index showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the dividend-themed ETFs had the largest gains among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as the CSI A50, CSI 2000, and Shanghai 50 saw net inflows, while the CSI A500 ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift in fund flows, with the New Energy ETF moving from net inflow to net outflow, while the Pharmaceutical ETF transitioned from net outflow to net inflow [16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for major broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with significant inflows into the CSI 300 ETF in April, followed by continued outflows in subsequent months [10][12] - Recent data indicates that, apart from the Shanghai 50 ETF, which shifted from net outflow to net inflow, other major broad-based ETFs have transitioned from net inflows to net outflows in the past two weeks [10][12] Thematic ETF Tracking - For technology-themed ETFs, those tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw significant net inflows, while products tracking the CS Artificial Intelligence index experienced net outflows [32] - Dividend-themed ETFs tracking the low-volatility dividend index had the highest net inflows, whereas those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [35] New ETF Products and Market Growth - In the past two weeks, a total of 8 new ETFs were launched, with a combined issuance of 2.997 billion shares, all of which were stock ETFs [26] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased significantly, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs growing by 293.33%, 197.82%, 112.34%, 52.18%, and 13.97% respectively [26] Fund Management Scale Distribution - As of October 24, Huaxia Fund has the largest ETF scale at 912.812 billion, with E Fund's ETF management scale expanding by over 250 billion compared to the previous year [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) [4][9]. Core Views - The company has experienced rapid growth in overseas business, particularly with the successful delivery of the Nigeria project, which is expected to contribute positively to earnings [4][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 76.0%, reaching 2.0 billion yuan [5][9]. - The company plans to implement a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, aiming to enhance the motivation of its core team [8][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huaxin Cement operates in the building materials industry, with a total market capitalization of 38.7 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.2% [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.03 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.0 billion yuan, marking a 76.0% increase [5][9]. - The gross profit margin improved from 24.0% to 29.5% compared to the same period last year [8]. Future Projections - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.16 billion yuan, 3.59 billion yuan, and 3.73 billion yuan, respectively, with an upward revision from previous estimates [9]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are 13.6, 12.0, and 11.5 [9]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 3.23 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous year's 3.38 billion yuan, but still significantly higher than the net profit [8][12]. - The company successfully issued bonds totaling 15 billion yuan, indicating strong cash flow management [8][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, leveraging its advantages in technology and shareholder background to drive growth [9]. - The planned incentive program aims to align the interests of management with those of shareholders, enhancing overall company performance [8][9].

Key Points Summary Group 1: UK Pension Developments - The UK government has approved the Collective Defined Contribution (CDC) pension plan, which is expected to increase retirement income for workers by 60% compared to individual pensions. This plan pools pensions into a common fund to provide lifelong regular pensions, offering a new alternative to traditional Defined Benefit (DB) and Defined Contribution (DC) plans [6][10]. - The CDC plan aims to address the growing demand for stable retirement income, as research indicates that nearly three-quarters of DC plan participants prefer guaranteed pension income. The pooled funds can also be invested in key infrastructure and high-growth industries, contributing to economic growth in the UK [7][10]. - A new investment alliance named Sterling 20 has been established, comprising 20 of the largest pension funds and insurance companies in the UK. This alliance aims to direct pension savings into critical infrastructure and high-growth sectors to promote balanced regional economic development [10][11]. Group 2: Japan's GPIF Initiatives - The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan has partnered with BNY to enhance alternative investment data management, aiming to improve transparency and analytical depth in its investment portfolio. As of June, GPIF's asset management scale reached $1.7 trillion, while BNY manages assets totaling $57.8 trillion [7][8]. - GPIF is shifting its focus towards sustainable and impact investing, with a reported 50% year-on-year increase in assets under management for impact investments, reaching 17.3 billion yen (approximately 98 million euros) for the fiscal year 2024 [8]. Group 3: Global Pension Fund Trends - The Oregon Public Pension Fund, with over $100 billion in assets, is reassessing its heavy reliance on private equity investments due to rising interest rates and changing market conditions. The fund's private equity allocation has been reduced from 28% to 26% as it seeks to balance risk and growth [12][15]. - A report from Swiss Re indicates that global population aging will significantly reshape the life insurance industry, with an expected increase of approximately 200 million people aged 65 and older in developed economies by 2050. This demographic shift will drive demand for new insurance products focused on retirement income maintenance and healthcare costs [16][17]. - In the US, corporate pension funding ratios have reached their highest level since October 2007, with the average funding ratio for the top 100 corporate defined benefit plans at 106.5% as of September 2025. This improvement is attributed to strong market performance and asset value increases [18][20]. Group 4: Domestic Pension Developments - Personal pension funds in China have expanded significantly, achieving an average return of 15.14% year-to-date, with nearly all funds reporting positive returns. The growth is largely driven by the recovery in the A-share market [23][24]. - There is a call for better integration between health insurance and the third pillar of pension systems in China, as current coverage levels for supplementary pensions remain low. The report suggests optimizing incentives for second and third pillar pension schemes to enhance coverage [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance exceeding the market by more than 5% over the next six months [26]. Core Views - The report highlights a mixed performance in the consumer sector, with certain sub-industries like media and home appliances showing positive growth, while others like food and beverage and retail are experiencing declines [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong earnings visibility as the third-quarter earnings reports are being released [2]. - Key investment themes include high-end liquor, fast-growing beverage companies, and the potential of the tourism sector as consumer spending rebounds [2]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The launch of limited edition products is expected to drive sales growth, particularly for leading companies in market management and branding [2]. - Focus areas include high-end liquor, next-tier liquor with national expansion, and local market strongholds [2]. Food and Beverage - Mass Market - The report suggests identifying high-growth sectors through third-quarter earnings, recommending companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Yili Group [2][15]. - Dairy products are expected to benefit from holiday season stocking, with major dairy companies entering a profit recovery phase [2]. Social Services - The tourism sector is projected to benefit from increasing consumer spending, with recommendations for companies like Ctrip and Huazhu Group [2]. - The beauty market is evolving, with domestic brands gaining traction, particularly those responsive to consumer needs [2]. Apparel and Textiles - The sports consumption sector is supported by policy, with investment opportunities in outdoor sports brands like Anta Sports [2][17]. Media - Companies that can tap into consumer sentiment and emotional trends are likely to find opportunities, with a focus on brands like Pop Mart [2][18].