Group 1 - The report highlights that China's broad interest rates have entered a historically low range, leading to significant changes in the financing structure, with a continuous decline in the proportion of indirect financing [3][44] - The trend of "financial disintermediation" is occurring, where savings are moving from banks to non-bank financial institutions, resulting in a shrinking of bank credit and an increase in non-bank deposits [3][48] - The report suggests that the current low interest rate environment is conducive to the development of the capital market, providing ample liquidity and valuation support [3][44] Group 2 - The report draws parallels with international experiences, particularly from the US and Japan, where low interest rates led to significant shifts in banking operations, asset allocation by residents, and market performance [9][27] - In the US, the low interest rate period saw a notable increase in the proportion of stocks and funds in household financial assets, rising from 38.8% in 2011 to 53.9% in 2021 [19] - Japan experienced a similar trend, with the proportion of stocks and funds in household assets increasing by nearly 10 percentage points during its low interest rate period [32] Group 3 - The report indicates that the Chinese stock market is entering a "slow bull" phase, supported by the ongoing financial disintermediation and the expected recovery in industry demand [44][48] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth sectors that benefit from both domestic and external demand, such as technology and advanced manufacturing [3][44] - The report also notes that certain quality dividend assets still hold investment value despite the changing market dynamics [3][44]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2025, public fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, a drop of 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Public fiscal expenditure increased by 1.0% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The deficit utilization rate for the first account was 92.5%, which is 9.3 percentage points lower than the average of the past three years[1] Tax Revenue Performance - National tax revenue growth was 0.8%, a decline of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Non-tax revenue fell by 11.3%, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a high base effect from last year[1] - Tax revenue growth ended an 8-month streak of positive growth, dropping 14.3 percentage points to -11.5% in December[1] Fiscal Spending Focus - Spending on science and technology decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year[1] - Expenditure in the livelihood sector grew by 4.5%, slightly down from the previous month but still outpacing overall fiscal expenditure growth[1] - Infrastructure spending saw a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, although it rebounded by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue decreased by 7.0% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.3%, both down from the previous month by 2.1 and 2.4 percentage points respectively[1] - In December, government fund revenue fell by 11.7%, while expenditure grew by 1.5%, narrowing the gap in growth rates[1] - Revenue from state land use rights dropped by 14.7%, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline compared to 2024[1] Overall Fiscal Outlook - The broad fiscal revenue growth rate was -2.9%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure increased by 3.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The focus of fiscal policy is shifting towards the 2026 "14th Five-Year Plan," with an emphasis on increased spending and coordinated fiscal-financial policies to stimulate domestic demand[1]

中国宏观周报（2026 年 1 月第 5 周） 宏 2026 年 2 月 2 日 观 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 石油化工价格上涨 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 从高频数据观察，本周部分原材料生产环比恢复，1 月末新房成交企稳回 升，去年同期低基数也有助推。工业品价格指数环比回升，结构分化，石 油化工产品表现强于有色金属及黑色原材料。 1. 工业：本周生产环比分化。1）原材料方面，本周钢铁建材和板材产量提 升，水泥熟料产能利用率、浮法玻璃开工率也有恢复，石油沥青开工率、 钢铁建材表观需求环比回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造 业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工率环比提升，全钢胎开工率环比回 落。据乘联会统计，1 月第一周至第二周，全国纯燃料轻型车同比-85%， 12 月同比-29%；混合动力与插混总体生产同比-65%，12 月同比-26%， 混动插混类汽车生产表现较燃油车 ...

证券研究报告 关注节后成交走势，三重对比港资房企 向上空间仍存 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：春节后到3月为楼市下一个重要观察节点，优质房企中期维度仍具备性价比。随着近期二手房市场成交回暖，本周市场对地产 关注度仍在升温，但对后续看法呈现分化。我们认为短期随着春节逐步临近，市场成交或趋于回落，节后到3月将是楼市下一个重要观察 节点。从板块投资来看，我们仍维持上周观点，在短期二手房成交淡季不淡、房企业绩压力提前释放、政策端不断释放积极信号等背景 下，中期维度来看优质房企已有一定配置价值。 全年看好港资房企，三重维度对比向上仍有空间。1月港资房企表现靓丽，我们持续提示的新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业单月涨幅达 32.7%、10.6%、15.3%，市场对于香港楼市延续上行逐步形成共识，更关注后续个股空间，我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿 基地产为例，目前PB为0.59倍，仍低于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.72PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底； 2）上轮香港楼市调整于2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [26] Core Insights - Domestic companies such as Alibaba, Kimi, and DeepSeek have released new AI large models, indicating intensified competition in the domestic large model market and the urgency to capture traffic and build AI super applications [4][7] - The AI comic industry is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in the number of micro-short comics projected for 2025, driven by advancements in AI technology and supportive policies from platforms [11][12] - The report emphasizes the continuous iteration and improvement of domestic large models, which will accelerate their application across various industries and enhance the overall development of the large model industry in China [4][22] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Recent releases of AI large models by Alibaba, Kimi, and DeepSeek highlight the competitive landscape and the urgency for domestic firms to enhance their capabilities [4][6][7] - The AI comic industry is set for explosive growth, with the number of micro-short comics expected to increase from 234 in January to 17,944 by December 2025, resulting in a tenfold increase in overall viewership [11][12] Key Company Announcements - Companies such as iFLYTEK, Tongfang, and Newland have announced positive earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the sector [14][15] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 4.77% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.08% [16][19] - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry stands at 57.4 times, with 41 out of 358 A-share stocks rising in price [19][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI computing power companies such as Haiguang Information and Longxin Zhongke, as well as AI algorithms and applications like Hengsheng Electronics and Zhongke Chuangda, indicating a strong outlook for the AI industry [22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [31] Core Insights - On January 30, 2023, the report highlights that the company has signed a strategic R&D cooperation and licensing agreement with AstraZeneca to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs using its proprietary sustained-release drug delivery technology and peptide drug AI discovery platform [3] - AstraZeneca will gain global exclusive rights to the company's weight management product portfolio, which includes a clinical-ready project SYH2082 and three preclinical projects targeting obesity and weight-related issues [3] - The company is set to receive $1.2 billion in upfront payments, with potential milestone payments of up to $3.5 billion for R&D and up to $13.8 billion in sales milestone payments, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on annual net sales of the licensed products [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the increasing recognition of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies by international multinational corporations (MNCs), particularly through the recent collaboration with AstraZeneca [4] - The report also notes AstraZeneca's plan to invest $15 billion in China by 2030 to expand drug manufacturing and R&D, leveraging China's scientific capabilities and manufacturing strengths [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies is continuously improving, with a focus on potential treatment areas such as metabolic diseases, chronic diseases, and central nervous system disorders [5] - It recommends paying attention to emerging fields like small nucleic acid drugs, radioactive drugs, and CAR-T therapies, highlighting specific companies to watch [5] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 3.31% last week, ranking 20th among 28 industries, while the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector fell by 2.98% [9][30] - The report indicates that the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at 32.45 times (TTM), with a premium of 15.83% compared to the overall A-shares [23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The introduction of the national capacity price policy for independent energy storage is expected to significantly boost domestic demand for large-scale energy storage [4][6]. - The capacity price policy recognizes the value of independent energy storage as a regulatory power source, allowing it to earn revenue through a combination of capacity pricing and spot market arbitrage [8]. - By the end of 2025, the installed capacity of new energy storage in China is projected to reach 136 GW and 351 GWh, representing a net increase of 62.24 GW and 183 GWh from 2024 [5][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Development - The national capacity price policy for independent energy storage was successfully implemented, allowing local governments to set capacity prices based on local coal power capacity standards and peak contribution factors [8]. Revenue Model - The revenue model for independent energy storage has evolved to include both capacity pricing and spot market arbitrage, enhancing the attractiveness for project owners to invest in energy storage systems [6][8]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a rapid growth in energy storage installations in China, driven by the new capacity pricing policy and the increasing recognition of independent energy storage's role in the power system [5][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - Apple's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached $143.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with net profit at $42.10 billion, also up 16%. Earnings per share rose by 19% to $2.84 [7]. - iPhone revenue, as a key growth driver, amounted to $85.27 billion, reflecting a 23% year-on-year growth and accounting for 59.3% of total revenue. Service revenue was $30.01 billion, up 14%, while iPad revenue grew by 6% to $8.60 billion. However, Mac revenue declined by 7% to $8.39 billion, and wearables, home, and accessories revenue fell by 2% to $11.49 billion [7]. - In the Greater China region, revenue reached $25.53 billion, marking a significant 38% year-on-year increase, while the Americas and Europe saw revenue growth of 11% and 13%, respectively [7]. Market Outlook - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2% in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units. The top five smartphone manufacturers in terms of shipments are Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, and OPPO, with respective shipments of 241 million (up 7%), 239 million (up 7%), 165 million (down 2%), 105 million (up 4%), and 101 million (down 3%) [7]. - For 2026, due to rising DRAM prices, the cost of smartphone Bill of Materials (BoM) is expected to increase by approximately 25% for low-end models, 15% for mid-range, and 10% for high-end models, with a potential further increase of 10%-15% by the second quarter of 2026. Consequently, global smartphone shipments are anticipated to decline by 2.1% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of smartphones is expected to rise by 6.9% in 2026 due to cost pass-through and product mix adjustments [7]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term pressures from rising storage costs are noted, but emerging products such as foldable phones, AI smartphones, and AI glasses present new growth opportunities for the industry. Companies to watch include Luxshare Precision, Lixun Precision, GoerTek, Lens Technology, and Xinwei Communication [7].

汽车 2026 年 02 月 01 日 长城汽车(601633.SH) 2025年销量创新高，渠道搭建影响盈利潜力释放 推荐（维持） 股价：20.69 元 主要数据 平安观点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 173,212 | 202,195 | 222,790 | 271,336 | 336,829 | | YOY(%) | 26.1 | 16.7 | 10.2 | 21.8 | 24.1 | | 净利润(百万元) | 7,022 | 12,692 | 9,912 | 13,294 | 16,519 | | YOY(%) | -15.1 | 80.8 | -21.9 | 34.1 | 24.3 | | 毛利率(%) | 18.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.9 | 20.2 | | 净利率(%) | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | | ROE(%) | 10.3 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 13.7 | 1 ...

证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...