Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the completion of a minor version upgrade for the DeepSeek R1 model, which has shown significant improvements in complex reasoning tasks and overall performance, making it competitive with top international models [3][4]. - NVIDIA's revenue for Q1 FY26 reached $44.1 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12% and a year-over-year increase of 69%, indicating strong global demand for AI computing power [5][6][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for dual growth in performance and valuation within the computer industry, driven by the recovery of demand and the importance of new productivity [16]. Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - DeepSeek R1's upgrade enhances its reasoning capabilities, achieving a 87.5% accuracy in the AIME 2025 test, up from 70% in the previous version, by utilizing more computational power [4]. - NVIDIA's Q1 FY26 revenue breakdown includes $39.1 billion from data centers, $3.8 billion from gaming, and $567 million from automotive and robotics, showcasing diverse revenue streams [7]. Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index rose by 1.77% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%, indicating a strong relative performance [10]. - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry stands at 49.8 times, with 255 out of 360 A-share stocks in the sector experiencing price increases [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several sectors within the computer industry, including: 1. **New Infrastructure Sector**: Strong recommendations for companies like Longxin Zhongke and Zhongke Shuguang [16]. 2. **Huawei Supply Chain**: Recommendations include Digital China and Softcom Power [16]. 3. **AI Sector**: Strong recommendations for companies like Zhongke Chuangda and Shengshi Technology [16]. 4. **Financial IT Sector**: Strong recommendations for Hengsheng Electronics [16]. 5. **Low-altitude Economy Sector**: Recommendations for Daotong Technology and others [16].

证券研究报告 DeepSeek R1完成小版本升级， 英伟达1Q FY26收入持续高速增长 计算机行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所计算机团队 分析师：闫磊S1060517070006(证券投资咨询)YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn 黄韦涵S1060523070003(证券投资咨询)HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 研究助理：王佳一S1060123070023（一般证券从业资格）WANGJIAYI446@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月3日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 行业要闻及简评：1）DeepSeek R1完成小版本升级，复杂推理任务表现提升。5月29日，深度求索宣布DeepSeek R1模型已完成小版本升级， 当前版本为DeepSeek-R1-0528。据深度求索介绍，DeepSeek-R1-0528在后训练过程中投入了更多算力，显著提升了模型的思维深度与推理 能力。更新后的R1模型在数学、编程与通用逻辑等多个基准测评中取得了当前国内所有模型中首屈一指的优异成绩，并且在整体表现上已 接近其他国际顶尖模型，如OpenAI-o3与Gemini-2. ...

港股晨报 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 周一港股通休市，全天股指宽幅震荡。收盘恒指 跌 0.57%报 23157.97 点，恒生科技指数跌 0.7%， 恒生中国企业指数跌 0.86%。全日大市成交额 1452 亿港元。医药股领跌，康方生物、美中嘉和 跌超 10%；地产股疲软；数字货币概念股大涨， 连连数字涨超 64%，移卡涨近 40%；黄金股、娱乐 影视股表现活跃，潼关黄金涨超 18%，阿里影业 涨超 7%。 美股市场 1. 中美贸易谈判情况或有望改善，美股周一一反早 段跌势转升，於 6 月首个交易日高收。纳指领 升，全日收报 128 点或 0.7%，收报 19,242 ...

其 他 报 告 2025年06月03日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3347 | -0.47 | -0.03 | | 深证成份指数 | 10041 | -0.85 | -0.91 | | 沪深300指数 | 3840 | -0.48 | -1.08 | | 创业板指数 | 1993 | -0.96 | -1.40 | | 上证国债指数 | 224 | 0.04 | -0.04 | | 上证基金指数 | 6903 | -0.05 | -0.04 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23158 | -0.57 | -1.32 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8359 | -0.86 | -1.77 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21003 | -1.61 | -1.41 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42270 | 0. ...

证券研究报告 开启新一轮降息周期，关注半年度业绩冲刺 月酝知风之地产行业 地产行业月报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 杨 侃 投资咨询资格编号：S1060514080002 王懂扬 投资咨询资格编号：S1060522070003 2025年6月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 2 本月观点：近期一揽子金融支持政策出台，助力楼市止跌回稳。5月公积金贷款利率及5年期LPR分别下调25bp、10bp，切实降低居民月供压力； 同时销售面积、新开工累计降幅连续两个月收窄，叠加年初以来百城土地成交溢价率维持高位，反映房企积极补货、对 "好房子及一二线核 心区"止跌回稳预期相对乐观，叠加城市更新定位提升，落地提速有望加快楼市止跌回稳。个股建议关注：1）历史包袱较轻、库存结构优化、 产品力强的房企如中国海外发展、绿城中国、建发国际集团、滨江集团、越秀地产；同时建议关注细分领域头部企业，如经纪（贝壳）、物 管（中海物业、保利物业、招商积余）、代建（绿城管理控股）等。 政策：央行下调公积金贷款利率，利好刚需人群入市。央行下调公积金贷款利率0.25pct至2.6%(5年期以上、首套），本次公积金利率调降前， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Stronger than the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro - sentiment improvement will boost oil prices in the short term, but OPEC+ production increases will still suppress medium - to long - term oil prices. OPEC+ production increase rhythm is advancing, and there are still concerns about an oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oil Price Review - In May 2025, international oil prices first fluctuated higher and then stabilized. Key influencing events included OPEC+ agreeing to continue increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in June on May 3, the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11, and the Iranian deputy foreign minister's statement on May 19 about the nuclear negotiation with the US [4] International Oil Price Outlook - **Institutional Forecast**: Oil production growth exceeds demand growth. EIA expects that inventory increases will cause the average Brent crude oil price to drop to $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025 and $59 per barrel in 2026 [8] - **This Report's Forecast**: US commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories are accumulating. After the US summer travel season starts at the end of May, gasoline and jet fuel demand may pick up. European industrial demand is weak. China's crude oil production increased in April 2025, while processing volume decreased. The report expects that Brent oil prices will have some support at $60 per barrel in Q2 2025, but the oil price outlook is bearish in the medium term due to OPEC+ production increases [8][52] OPEC Analysis - **Overall Production Plan**: In April 2025, OPEC 12 - country crude oil production was 26,712 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 61 thousand barrels per day month - on - month. OPEC+ (excluding quota - free countries) production was 35,461 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 25 thousand barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 412,000 barrels per day in June, and some over - producing countries have compensation - based production cut plans, so short - term supply is stable [9] - **Non - OPEC DoC Production**: In April 2025, Non - OPEC DoC crude oil production was 14,205 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 43 thousand barrels per day month - on - month, mainly due to a 41 - thousand - barrel - per - day decrease in Kazakhstan's production. Non - DoC countries' production is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, mainly driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina [18] - **Drilling Activity**: In April 2025, the global total number of drilling rigs was 1,687, a significant decrease of 70 month - on - month. Canada's oil rig count decreased by 56, mainly due to seasonal factors, while the US oil rig count decreased by 6. US new well - drilling numbers remained unchanged, completed well numbers declined, and inventory well numbers increased slightly [24] - **Global Oil Demand Forecast**: OPEC slightly lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2025 - 2026. In 2025, global oil demand is expected to be 105.0 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to be 106.3 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.28 million barrels per day year - on - year [25] EIA Analysis - **Inventory Forecast**: EIA expects that from Q2 2025, global crude oil will experience significant inventory accumulation. In 2025, the supply - demand gap is expected to be +420,000 barrels per day, and in 2026, it is expected to be +820,000 barrels per day [28] - **Supply Increment**: OPEC+ will gradually exit the voluntary production cut agreement, and production will resume growth. The US, Canada, and other American countries will contribute to supply growth in the forecast period [32] - **Demand Forecast**: EIA forecasts that in 2025, global oil demand will be 103.71 million barrels per day, an increase of 970,000 barrels per day year - on - year; in 2026, it will be 104.61 million barrels per day, an increase of 900,000 barrels per day year - on - year. China and India are the main sources of global oil consumption growth [35] IEA Analysis - **Supply Forecast**: Non - OPEC+ producers' production is expected to continue to increase significantly. In 2025, global oil supply is expected to increase by about 1.6 million barrels per day year - on - year, and in 2026, it will increase by 970,000 barrels per day year - on - year [36] - **Demand Forecast**: The growth rate of global oil demand is expected to decline. In 2025, it is expected to increase by 740,000 barrels per day year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to increase by 760,000 barrels per day year - on - year. Emerging economies are the main driving force for growth [40] Investment Suggestion - The report expects that Brent oil prices will have support at $60 per barrel in Q2 2025, but the medium - term oil price outlook is bearish. It is recommended to pay attention to leading domestic oil companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit of 0.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.4% [3][5]. - The company is expected to increase its pure electric vehicle offerings in the second half of the year, with the launch of two new models, i8 and i6, anticipated to drive growth [5][6]. - The successful launch of MEGA Home has exceeded expectations, contributing positively to the company's outlook for new electric vehicle models [5][6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 169.22 billion yuan, 230.91 billion yuan, and 271.86 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 17.1%, 36.5%, and 17.7% [4][10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.73 billion yuan, 17.4 billion yuan, and 22.62 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.5%, 62.2%, and 30.0% [4][10]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The company is projected to maintain a gross margin of around 20.8% in 2025, with a net margin of 6.3% [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The diluted EPS is expected to be 5.01 yuan in 2025, increasing to 10.57 yuan by 2027 [4][10]. Operational Insights - The company achieved a stable gross margin of 19.8% in Q1 2025 despite a slight decline in average selling price (ASP) per vehicle [5]. - Cost control measures have led to a reduction in R&D and sales management expenses, contributing to a positive operating profit in Q1 2025 [5][6]. - The company plans to enhance its production capacity, aiming for a monthly delivery rate of 2,500 to 3,000 units by July [5].

Group 1: Equity Market Trends - As of Q1 2025, the National Team holds approximately CNY 3.89 trillion in stocks, with ETF holdings reaching about CNY 1.06 trillion by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in ETF allocation[19] - Insurance funds' equity investments accounted for 4.77% of the total A-share market capitalization by the end of 2024, indicating a growing trend in long-term investments[4] - Foreign capital's A-share holdings have remained stable since the beginning of 2025, following a notable increase in September 2024, driven by global capital reassessing Chinese assets[4] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - Commercial banks remain the largest participants in the bond market, with bond holdings valued at approximately CNY 90.48 trillion as of Q1 2025, reflecting a 2.48% increase from the end of 2024[15] - Insurance institutions have also increased their bond investments, with total bond investment reaching about CNY 15.9 trillion by the end of Q4 2024[15] - Foreign investment in domestic bonds has shown a structural return trend since the beginning of 2025, influenced by changes in U.S. Federal Reserve policies[4] Group 3: Investment Preferences of Major Players - The National Team's investment strategy has shifted towards core broad-based ETFs, with the top seven ETFs accounting for 98.45% of their holdings by the end of 2024[30] - Social security funds have a strong preference for large-cap, high-dividend blue-chip companies, with a weighted average market value of CNY 994.54 billion and an average dividend yield of 4.6% as of Q1 2025[55] - The investment style of social security funds is characterized by a focus on stable, high-dividend stocks, often increasing holdings during market downturns[55]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 111.3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The automotive business is experiencing rapid growth, with losses narrowing, and the self-developed flagship smartphone SoC chip, Xuanjie O1, has officially entered mass production, further advancing the company's high-end smartphone strategy [2][8] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the automotive business generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan, with a single vehicle average selling price (ASP) of 239,000 yuan, reflecting a 0.5 thousand yuan increase quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The automotive business's gross margin reached 23.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with operational losses narrowing to 500 million yuan [5][8] Product Development and Market Position - The YU7 model is set to launch in July 2025, featuring significant upgrades in configuration compared to the SU7, including a long-range battery and advanced technology [6] - The company regained the top position in the Chinese smartphone market with a market share of 18.8%, a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percentage points, and a global market share of 14.1% [7][8] Growth in Smart Home Appliances - The smart home appliance segment saw a revenue increase of 113.8% year-on-year, with significant sales in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, contributing to an IoT and consumer products revenue of 32.3 billion yuan, up 58.7% year-on-year [7][8] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 41.8 billion yuan, 53.4 billion yuan, and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "recommend" rating for the company [2][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 111.3 billion yuan (up 47.4% year-on-year) and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (up 64.5% year-on-year) [4] - The automotive business's losses have narrowed, with a single-quarter operating loss reduced to 500 million yuan, and the SU7 series deliveries reached 75,869 units [6] - The smartphone high-end strategy is progressing, with a market share in mainland China returning to first place, and ASP for smartphones increased to 1,211 yuan (up 5.8% year-on-year) [6] - The smart home appliance business is growing rapidly, with IoT and consumer goods revenue reaching 32.3 billion yuan (up 58.7% year-on-year) and a gross margin of 25.2% [7] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 41.8 billion, 53.4 billion, and 66.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth across multiple business segments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 111.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 47.4% and adjusted net profit of 10.7 billion yuan, up 64.5% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 502.4 billion, 649.6 billion, and 819.2 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.3%, 29.3%, and 26.1% [5][11] Automotive Business - The automotive segment generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in Q1, with a gross margin of 23.2% and a narrowed operating loss of 500 million yuan [6] - The upcoming YU7 model is expected to be launched in July, featuring significant upgrades compared to the SU7 [6] Smartphone and IoT Business - Smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units with revenue of 50.6 billion yuan in Q1, and the ASP increased to 1,211 yuan [6] - The IoT and consumer goods segment saw a revenue increase of 58.7% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in smart appliances [7] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve, with net profit margins expected to reach 8.3% by 2025 [11] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 52.1 in 2024 to 29.5 in 2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [11]