食品饮料周报 饮品旺季临近，产业端多维创新 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 食品饮料周报-观点 资料来源：iFind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-2.80%。涨跌幅前三的个股为： *ST岩石（+4.71%）、天佑德酒（+3.88%）、伊力特 （+1.17%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为迎驾贡酒（-3.51%）、山西汾酒（-4.01%）、泸州老窖（-4.04%）。 观点：酒企务实求真，加大战略转型。上周白酒股东大会集中召开，据微酒，在行业调整周期中，多家酒企提出将加大战略转型， 聚焦高质量发展，同时加大年轻消费者培育，体现出务实的态度。展望未来，我们期待政策助力下，消费环境回暖，标的上推荐三 条主线，一是需求坚挺的高端白酒；二是全国化持续推进的次高端白酒；三 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, supported by the continuous effects of domestic policies and the strengthening of fundamental resilience [2][8] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth industries and quality dividend assets, with three main investment themes: domestic technology and high-end manufacturing, consumer quality assets benefiting from domestic demand expansion policies, and quality dividend assets with long-term investment value [2][8] Group 2: Recommendations - The report recommends ten key stocks for June: Qianhong Pharmaceutical, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, Yanjing Beer, Shenxinfeng, Foxit Software, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, China Pacific Insurance, and China Shenhua Energy [2][8] Group 3: Precious and Industrial Metals - Gold prices experienced a slight decline due to uncertainties in U.S. policies and trade negotiations, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the weakening of U.S. dollar credit [10][11] - Copper demand is gradually recovering domestically, with a tight supply of copper concentrate, indicating a potential upward trend in copper prices [10][11] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand-supply imbalance, with domestic aluminum inventory decreasing significantly [11][12] Group 4: Computer Industry Insights - DeepSeek R1 has completed a minor version upgrade, enhancing its performance in complex reasoning tasks, while NVIDIA reported a significant revenue increase driven by strong global AI computing demand [14][15] - The computer industry index rose by 1.77%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive market trend [14][15] Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with expectations for continued recovery as developers ramp up marketing efforts [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of "good products" and core areas in stabilizing the market, with a focus on companies with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures [21][22] Group 6: Renewable Energy Sector - The offshore wind power projects in Guangdong are expected to accelerate, indicating new investment opportunities in the offshore wind industry [26][27] - The report highlights the increasing trend of BC technology in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Longi and Aishuo launching innovative products to meet diverse customer needs [28][29] Group 7: Financial Sector Analysis - The growth rate of corporate loans remains low, while personal loans show steady growth, indicating a cautious lending environment [34][35] - The report notes that the issuance of government bonds is accelerating, impacting the overall loan growth rate, with a focus on industrial and infrastructure loans [34][35]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The top 100 real estate companies managed a total of 294.58 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. Although the real estate market in some cities has slightly cooled down in Q2 2025, there is no need for excessive concern. Factors such as sufficient adjustment time in the market and recent interest rate cuts are expected to ease home-buying pressure [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities expected to recover in Q4 2024 [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with 22,000 new homes sold in the week of May 24-30, up 5.8% from the previous week. However, second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities decreased by 9.4% [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a total of 91.32 million square meters in 16 cities, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, placing it in the 95.64th percentile over the past five years [18] - The issuance of domestic real estate bonds increased to 4.91 billion yuan last week, with a net financing amount that also rose [15] Individual Stock Recommendations - Companies to watch include those with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Poly Development. Additionally, companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A are recommended for valuation recovery [3][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The report highlights three significant events in the global pension sector, including the Canadian CPP's sale of its fossil energy trading platform, the Korean NPS's increase in overseas stock investments, and the UK government's legislative push for pension investments in the domestic private equity market [1][2][11]. Summary by Sections Canadian CPP's Sale of Fossil Energy Platform - On May 30, Canadian CPP Investments announced the sale of its entire 98% stake in the fossil energy acquisition platform EAP to EOG Resources for $5.6 billion. This sale does not indicate a change in CPP's investment strategy in the U.S. [6][7]. Korean NPS's Increase in Overseas Stock Investments - The Korean National Pension Service (NPS) plans to raise its overseas stock allocation target from 35.9% to 38.9% by 2026, which translates to an additional investment of approximately $26.5 billion into foreign stock markets. This strategy aims to hedge against domestic market weaknesses and enhance overall returns [9][10]. UK Government's Legislative Push for Domestic Private Equity Investments - The UK government has proposed legislation to mandate pension plans to invest in the domestic private equity market and set local investment targets. The review aims to reverse the declining trend of UK pension plans investing domestically, which has dropped from over 50% in 2012 to about 20% currently [11][12].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2][28] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The operating amount of the top 100 real estate companies was 294.58 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. The adjustment period for the real estate market has been sufficient, and recent interest rate cuts have eased home-buying pressure. Core city supply is entering a "window period," which may support market stabilization [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities showing early signs of recovery [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase of 5.8%, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 9.4%. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in May was down 5.3% year-on-year but up 9.1% month-on-month [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months. The inventory in 16 cities was 91.32 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [13] - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, at the 95.64% percentile of the past five years [18] Policy Environment Monitoring - Multiple regions have introduced policies to stabilize the real estate market, including Shenzhen's guidelines for the allocation of affordable housing [4][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of financial institutions' loans has slightly decreased, primarily influenced by accelerated government bond issuance, leading to a structural tilt towards corporate loans [2] - The overall loan balance of financial institutions reached 265.41 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, and an increase of 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter [1] - The growth rate of corporate loans remains the main focus, with medium to long-term loans in the industrial sector growing by 11.2% year-on-year, and infrastructure loans increasing by 8.0% [2] - The growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, which is 4.8 percentage points higher than the overall loan growth rate [2] - The decline in mortgage loans has slowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, influenced by a reduction in the decline of commercial housing sales area [2] Summary by Sections Loan Growth Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total RMB loan balance was 265.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% and an increase of 9.78 trillion yuan in Q1 [1] Corporate Loans - Corporate loans continue to receive the majority of resource allocation, with industrial medium to long-term loans growing by 11.2% year-on-year, and infrastructure loans increasing by 8.0% [2] Inclusive Finance - Inclusive small and micro loans showed a year-on-year growth of 12.2%, indicating a stable growth trend, while agricultural loans also maintained a high growth rate of 8.4% [2] Mortgage Loans - Mortgage loans experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting potential recovery in the future [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" investment strategy, highlighting the attractiveness of dividend yields in the current market environment, with an average dividend yield of 4.19% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The offshore wind projects in the Guangdong province are expected to accelerate, with two major projects totaling 3GW being highlighted [5][10] - The wind power index has shown a 0.61% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.69 percentage points [12] - The report emphasizes the growing investment opportunities in the deep-sea wind power sector due to advancements in technology and equipment [11][35] Summary by Sections Wind Power: Acceleration of Offshore Projects - The Guangdong provincial government has announced two offshore wind projects with a total capacity of 3GW, expected to commence construction between 2025 and 2026 [10][11] - The projects include the Yue East Offshore Wind Power 001 project with a capacity of 1.7 million kW and the Yue East Offshore Wind Power 004 project with a capacity of 1.3 million kW [11] - The report indicates that the conditions for deep-sea wind power development are maturing, presenting new investment opportunities [11] Market Performance Review - The wind power index (866044.WI) increased by 0.61% during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, with a current PE_TTM valuation of approximately 18.68 times [12][21] - The report notes that the wind power sector has outperformed the broader market, as indicated by the comparison with the CSI 300 index [12] Solar Power: BC Camp Expanding Product Matrix - Recent product launches from companies like Aiko Solar and Longi Green Energy are aimed at enhancing the efficiency and aesthetic appeal of solar panels [6] - The report highlights the increasing demand for BC technology products, which are being tailored to meet diverse customer needs [6] Energy Storage & Hydrogen: Green Power Direct Connection Policy - New policies promoting direct connections for green electricity are expected to boost the development of solar and storage solutions [6] - The report suggests that this model could simplify the electricity supply chain and enhance economic viability for both producers and consumers [6] Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report recommends focusing on companies such as Mingyang Smart Energy, Dongfang Cable, and Yaxing Anchor Chain due to the positive outlook for offshore wind power [6] - In the solar sector, companies like Dier Laser, Longi Green Energy, and Aiko Solar are highlighted as key players to watch [6] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes and competitive dynamics in the solar supply chain [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [74] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The U.S. International Trade Court has blocked Trump's "Day of Liberation" tariffs, leading to a slight decline in gold prices. As of May 30, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.33% to $3,313.10 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.8% to 930.2 tons. Short-term uncertainties in U.S. policy, trade negotiations, and geopolitical factors continue to support safe-haven demand for gold. In the medium to long term, ongoing macro uncertainties abroad and the weakening of the dollar's credit are expected to enhance gold's monetary attributes, leading to a positive outlook for gold prices [4][7]. - Industrial Metals: Domestic metal inventories remain relatively low, with a focus on downstream demand in June [5]. As of May 30, LME copper futures fell by 1.2% to $9,497 per ton, while domestic copper social inventory reached 138,700 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,200 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 149,900 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory reduction. The copper market shows resilience, and if downstream demand exceeds expectations, copper prices may enter an upward channel [6][7]. - Aluminum: As of May 30, LME aluminum futures fell by 0.7% to $2,448.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 511,000 tons, with a reduction of 46,000 tons. The global electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline. Despite some seasonal weakness in downstream sectors, demand remains resilient, and the aluminum price is expected to rise in the medium to long term due to policy support and improved demand expectations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have slightly declined due to tariff uncertainties, but medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to macro uncertainties and dollar weakening [4][7]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Domestic demand is gradually recovering, with a long-term demand space opening up due to industrialization in emerging markets. The tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to support prices [6][7]. - Aluminum: The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to strong demand and reduced inventory levels [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Zijin Mining for copper, and Tianshan Aluminum for aluminum [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" with an expectation that stock performance will exceed market performance by more than 20% within six months [50]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of the end of Q1 2025, the total RMB loans from financial institutions grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with foreign and domestic currency industrial medium and long-term loans increasing by 11.2%, indicating a sustained growth momentum [5][15]. - The issuance of government bonds and local government bonds accelerated, with April seeing a significant year-on-year increase of 35.3% and 101.6% respectively, reflecting the ongoing implementation of growth-stimulating policies [6][18]. - The release of the modern enterprise system aims to enhance high-quality development, emphasizing the need for improved corporate governance and innovation mechanisms [7][27]. Summary by Sections Loan Allocation Statistics - Corporate real estate loan growth remains low at 0.04% year-on-year, while personal loans show stable growth with a 3% increase [5][15]. - Infrastructure-related medium and long-term loans increased by 8% year-on-year, supported by fiscal policies [5][15]. Bond Market Activity - In April, the issuance of national and local government bonds reached 1.47 trillion and 693.29 billion RMB respectively, with significant year-on-year growth [6][18]. - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank bond market decreased by 7.5% year-on-year to 1.5 trillion RMB [6][18]. Modern Enterprise System - The new guidelines for the modern enterprise system include 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing corporate governance and management practices [7][27]. - The focus is on fostering innovation and improving the efficiency of resource allocation within enterprises [7][27]. Industry News - The banking sector saw a net injection of 656.6 billion RMB through open market operations, with SHIBOR rates showing mixed trends [43]. - The securities market reported an average daily trading volume of 1.35 trillion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week [46]. - The insurance sector is set to see an increase in participation from small and medium-sized insurance companies in long-term investment trials [34]. Market Performance - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the fintech index rising by 7.63% [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended," with an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 20% within six months [59]. Core Insights - The overall data indicates that as of the end of Q1 2025, the total RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with foreign and domestic medium to long-term loans for industry growing by 11.2%, which remains a significant factor supporting loan growth [5][14]. - The issuance of government bonds and local government bonds accelerated, with April seeing a total issuance of 1.47 trillion yuan and 693.29 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth rates of 35.3% and 101.6% [6][17]. - The release of the modern enterprise system aims to enhance high-quality development, emphasizing the need for improved corporate governance and innovation mechanisms [7][26]. Summary by Sections Loan Allocation Statistics - Corporate real estate loan growth remains low, while personal loans show steady growth. As of the end of Q1 2025, real estate loans increased by only 0.04% year-on-year, and personal housing loans decreased by 0.8% [5][14]. Bond Market Activity - In April, the bond market saw a total issuance of 1.47 trillion yuan in national bonds and 693.29 billion yuan in local government bonds, with significant year-on-year growth [6][17]. - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank bond market was 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year [6][17]. Modern Enterprise System - The modern enterprise system document outlines 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing corporate governance, management levels, and innovation incentives [7][26]. - The focus is on creating a collaborative and efficient innovation ecosystem, with a particular emphasis on improving the governance structure of state-owned enterprises and supporting private enterprises in optimizing their governance [7][26].