核心观点 证券研究报告 2024年医保数据梳理： 收入持续增长，各项政策稳步推进 医药行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001 邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道 投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001 邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001 邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 2025年9月14日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 医保覆盖率高，近两年基金支出增速大于收入增速，职工医保在医保收入占比高。医保参保率常年维持在94%以上，基本实现医保全覆盖。 2018年以来，医保基金收入持续增长，由2018年的21384亿元增长至2024年的34913亿元；医保支出由2018年的17822亿元，增长至2024 年的29764亿元；2023和2024年医保基金支出增速大于收入增速，当期结余负增长，至2024年当期结余降幅收窄。基本医保中包含职工医 保以及居民医保，2018-2024年职工医保基金收入在医保基金收入中占比在63%以上，职工医保基金 ...

2025 年 09 月 11 日 2025 年 8 月物价数据点评 物价数据步入改善过程 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | 事项： 2025 年 7 月 CPI 同比为-0.4%，PPI 同比为-2.9%。 宏 观 报 告 平安观点： 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 8 月 CPI 同比较上月回落 0.4 个百分点，扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI同 比上涨 0.9%，涨幅连续 4 个月扩大。1）8 月 CPI同比的翘尾因素为-0.9%， 降幅比上月扩大 0.4 个百分点，上年基数因素是 CPI 同比下降的原因之一。 2）食品分项同比下降 4.3%，降幅比上月扩大 2.7 个百分点，对 CPI 同比的 下拉影响比上月增加约 0.51 个百分点。食品价格环比涨幅明显低于季节性水 平，特别是猪肉和蛋价格。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the opportunities in consumer electronics against the backdrop of AI intelligence, particularly following Apple's recent product launch event where new devices such as the iPhone 17 series and AirPods Pro 3 were introduced [4][7]. - The report suggests a focus on companies like Luxshare Precision, Pengding Holdings, Lens Technology, Linyang Technology, GoerTek, Lite-On Technology, and Zhuhai CosMX Battery as potential investment opportunities in the consumer electronics sector [7]. Summary by Sections Apple Product Launch - Apple held its fall product launch event on September 10, unveiling the iPhone 17 series, three models of Apple Watch, and AirPods Pro 3 [4]. - The iPhone 17 series features a design with an aluminum frame and glass back, weighing approximately 177 grams and measuring 7.95 mm thick. The starting price for the 256GB version is 5999 yuan, while the 512GB version starts at 7999 yuan [6]. - The iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max have screen sizes of 6.3 inches and 6.9 inches, respectively, with a peak brightness of 3000 nits and support for a 120Hz adaptive refresh rate. The camera system includes a 48MP wide-angle main camera and a second-generation telephoto lens with up to 8x optical zoom [6]. - AirPods Pro 3 features real-time voice translation powered by Apple Intelligence, heart rate monitoring, and improved active noise cancellation capabilities, with a starting price of 1899 yuan [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism for the consumer electronics sector as the traditional peak season for smartphones approaches, driven by AI advancements. It recommends monitoring specific companies for potential investment [7].

Group 1 - The total number of fund advisory portfolios on the Tian Tian Fund APP reached 454 as of the end of August 2025, an increase of 4 from the previous month, with new portfolios in consumption, pharmaceuticals, dividends, and overseas strategies [9][10][11] - The performance of the fund advisory portfolios showed that the median return of the equity-debt balanced portfolios lagged behind similar FOF products over the past year, with all types of equity-debt balanced portfolios underperforming their benchmarks in the month [17][18] - The active equity funds saw significant increases in holdings, particularly in quantitative strategies, industry rotation strategies, and growth styles, indicating a shift towards more dynamic investment approaches [41][42] Group 2 - The performance of sector-specific portfolios indicated that all sector portfolios had positive median returns over the past year, with pharmaceuticals, new energy, consumption, dividends, and state-owned enterprises outperforming their benchmarks [23][27] - The regional portfolios, particularly those focused on Hong Kong stocks, outperformed their benchmarks over the past year, while overseas strategy portfolios underperformed in the same period [22][23] - The top-performing sector portfolios this year were concentrated in pharmaceuticals and technology, with the highest returns coming from the "Pharmaceutical Hamburger" and "China's Hard Technology" portfolios [25][27] Group 3 - The tracking of fund positions revealed that the conservative advisory portfolios reduced their holdings in index funds while increasing their allocation to mixed funds, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation [30][32] - The balanced advisory portfolios decreased their bond fund holdings and increased their mixed fund allocations, indicating a preference for more flexible investment strategies [32][35] - The aggressive advisory portfolios also reduced their stock fund holdings while increasing their allocations to active equity funds, suggesting a trend towards more active management in pursuit of higher returns [32][35]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Dynamics - The expectation of a US interest rate cut is a key driver for the recent rise in gold prices, with the 2-year US Treasury yield declining by 44 basis points from July 16 to September 5, while gold prices increased by 7.5% during the same period[6] - The US employment data has shown a rapid decline, with an average of only 27,000 new jobs added per month from May to August, supporting the Fed's potential rate cut in September[4] - The ICE US Dollar Index's non-commercial net short positions have increased, indicating a growing bearish sentiment towards the dollar, which historically correlates with rising gold prices during periods of rate cuts[2][8] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Factors - The Trump administration's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence has raised concerns about the credibility of the dollar, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices[13] - Asian markets have significantly contributed to gold demand, with over 400 tons added to global gold ETFs this year, of which more than 100 tons came from Asia, increasing its share by 2 percentage points compared to the end of 2024[21] - The Indian market is expected to increase its gold purchases due to deteriorating US-India relations, with India adding 12.2 tons to its official gold reserves from January to September 2025[25] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The gold market is currently described as "hot but controllable," with significant interest but not excessive speculation, as evidenced by lower levels of speculative positions compared to 2024[30][32] - Google search interest in "gold price" has surged since April 2025, indicating heightened global attention towards gold[28] - The largest physical gold ETF's holdings have increased, but the growth rate and absolute levels remain below those seen in 2020, suggesting a more measured investment approach from Western investors[30]

Group 1: Institutional Funds - Institutional funds are showing collaborative strength with significant growth in various sectors. Public funds saw a notable increase in new stock fund issuance in July, with the number and scale rising by 32.8% and 97.5% respectively compared to June. The second quarter saw major increases in holdings in the banking and TMT sectors [4][9][10] - Private equity funds also experienced a surge, with 1,591 new stock private equity funds launched in July, marking a 20.7% increase from June. The stock position has risen for three consecutive months, reaching 62.8% in July [4][15] - Insurance funds accelerated their market entry, with a net inflow of over 640 billion yuan into A-shares in the first half of the year. The allocation to stocks reached 3.1 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.5 trillion yuan in Q2 [4][20][21] Group 2: Retail Investors - Retail investor activity has increased, with 265,000 new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August, a 35% increase from July. However, this remains moderate compared to the peak in October 2024 [4][31] - The margin financing balance reached 2.2 trillion yuan, surpassing the 2015 high, but the overall leverage ratio remains healthy at 2.4% of the A-share market capitalization [4][31] Group 3: Foreign Capital - Foreign capital is returning to A-shares, with over 100 billion yuan flowing back in Q2 2025. From August 14 to August 20, foreign capital saw a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, marking a shift towards net inflows for the first time since mid-October 2024 [4][6] - The foreign capital primarily increased holdings in defensive assets with stable cash flows, such as finance and public utilities, as well as high-growth sectors like communication and biomedicine [4][6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The mid-term outlook for A-shares indicates a continued emphasis on high-quality equity allocation. Despite short-term volatility, the accumulation of positive factors in the industry and the ongoing policy implementation suggest a favorable environment for investment [4][6] - Key investment themes include the AI industry chain, advanced manufacturing sectors with international competitiveness, and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support [4][6]

Export Performance - In August 2025, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The trade surplus reached $102.33 billion, up from $98.24 billion in the previous month[2] - Exports to the EU contributed 1.6 percentage points to overall growth, while ASEAN contributed 3.4 percentage points, both showing improvement from the previous month[4] Import Performance - Imports grew by 1.3% year-on-year, also down by 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Agricultural products showed a reduced drag of 0.6 percentage points on import growth, improving by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The contribution of mechanical and high-tech products to import growth decreased by 0.2 percentage points each, indicating a weakening in these sectors[4] Product Structure and Trends - High-tech and mechanical products positively impacted export growth, contributing 4.8 and 1.5 percentage points respectively, while labor-intensive products had a negative impact of 0.3 percentage points[4] - Key products such as automobiles, integrated circuits, and ships showed enhanced performance, collectively increasing export contributions by 0.14 percentage points[4] Regional Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. negatively impacted overall growth by 5.1 percentage points, worsening by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Exports from regions like Russia, Latin America, and Africa saw a slight decline, collectively reducing their contribution by 1.8 percentage points[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include underperformance of growth stabilization policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11]

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows steady progress with new growth drivers strengthening, as evidenced by a 5.7% year-on-year increase in industrial production in July, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.3% [12][14] - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed to 1.6% year-on-year for the first seven months, while manufacturing investment has outpaced overall investment growth at 6.2% [12][14] - Exports have remained resilient, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.1% in the first seven months, and July's growth rate rebounding to 7.2%, particularly in high-value products like integrated circuits and automobiles [12][14] A-Share Market - In August, the A-share market continued to show enthusiasm, driven by a growth narrative, with active trading and a focus on growth stocks [4][18] - The outlook for September suggests a solid foundation for the market, with attention on potential style shifts as the market transitions from valuation recovery to performance verification [4][18] Fixed Income Market - In August, the bond market experienced a bearish trend, with funding rates declining and a steepening yield curve observed [4][19] - The outlook for September indicates that if equity gains slow, the bond market may benefit from favorable conditions [4][19] Currency Exchange - The US dollar index is expected to remain weak and volatile, influenced by market expectations of monetary policy divergence between the US and Europe [4][19] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to maintain an appreciation trend in the short term, supported by favorable factors such as increased corporate foreign exchange settlement motivation [4][19] Offshore Markets - The US stock market is expected to experience fluctuations due to multiple disturbances, including employment data and tariff policies, while the Hong Kong stock market has potential for rebound supported by improved liquidity and domestic policy [4][19] - The outlook for US Treasury bonds suggests that the market has already priced in the likelihood of interest rate cuts, leading to expected volatility in short-term yields [4][19] Commodities - Gold prices are projected to remain strong due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while oil prices are expected to trend downward as the travel season comes to an end [4][19]

ETF Market Review - The overall performance of ETF products has been good in the past two weeks, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the New Energy sector ETF recorded the highest growth among industry and thematic products [3][10] - In the past two weeks, there has been a significant acceleration in net outflows from broad-based ETFs, particularly from the SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000/CSI 2000 series ETFs, while net inflows were observed in technology, dividend, and military ETFs [3][10] Fund Flow Overview - As of September 5, 2025, the newly established ETFs totaled 14, with a total issuance of 8.77 billion shares, all of which are stock ETFs. Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased significantly, with bond ETFs up by 220.36%, commodity ETFs by 105.73%, industry + dividend ETFs by 78.94%, QDII ETFs by 34.31%, and broad-based ETFs by 10.40% [20][21] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology sector, ETFs tracking communication equipment-related indices performed well in the past two weeks, with significant net inflows observed in products tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index, while those tracking the CSI All-Share Semiconductor Index experienced net outflows [25][28] - For dividend-themed ETFs, those tracking the CSI Dividend Quality Index saw the largest increase in returns, with net inflows in products tracking dividend indices, while those tracking low-volatility dividends experienced net outflows [3][15] - In the consumer sector, ETFs tracking the CSI Tourism Index showed strong performance, while those tracking the China Education Index had a high premium rate [3][15] Bond ETF Trends - Since the beginning of 2025, credit bond and government bond ETFs have seen significant net inflows. In the past two weeks, there was a substantial inflow into short-term bonds, convertible bonds, and government bond ETFs, with short-term and local government bond ETFs reversing from net outflows to net inflows [15][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The new AITO M7 has initiated pre-sales with a starting price of 288,000 yuan, featuring comprehensive upgrades in appearance, chassis, body dimensions, wheelbase, and intelligent driving capabilities [4][7]. - The pricing strategy for the new M7 reflects a brand value enhancement, as it is positioned at a higher price point compared to its predecessor, indicating a shift towards high-end market positioning [7][10]. - The report highlights the formation of a high-end brand strategy for AITO, supported by a close partnership with Huawei, which has established a brand barrier in the premium vehicle segment [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company show significant growth, with expected revenues of 145.176 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 258.398 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a year-over-year growth rate of 305.0% in 2024 [6]. - Net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 5.946 billion yuan, and is expected to grow to 16.793 billion yuan by 2027, with a year-over-year growth of 342.7% in 2024 [6]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 10.4% in 2023 to 26.2% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to shift from -6.8% to 4.1% in the same period [6]. Product Development - The new AITO M7 features a wheelbase of 3030 mm, which is an increase of 210 mm from the previous model, providing more interior space [7][9]. - The M7 is equipped with Huawei's advanced driving assistance system (ADS 4), enhancing its competitive edge in the market [11]. Market Positioning - AITO's M9 and M8 models have maintained high price points, with the M9 priced around 500,000 yuan, demonstrating the brand's ability to achieve high sales volumes despite premium pricing [7][10]. - The report notes that AITO's pricing strategy allows it to achieve a unique market position, with its models priced higher than competitors while still achieving strong sales [10].