医药 2026 年 02 月 04 日 诺诚健华(688428.SH) 商业化放量与对外合作并进，双轮驱动迈向2.0发展阶段 推荐（维持） 股价：21.51 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 医药 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.innocarepharma.com | | 大股东/持股 | HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED/51% | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,765 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 268 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 1,496 | | 总市值（亿元） | 209 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 58 | | 每股净资产(元) | 3.78 | | 资产负债率(%) | 29.9 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】诺诚健华（688428.SH）*首次覆盖报告* 始于创新、强于执行力，血液瘤及自免领域管线双开花 *推荐20240321 【平安证券】诺诚健华（688428.SH）*半年报点评*奥 布替尼2024上半年快速放量，血液瘤、自免、实体瘤 在研管线稳步推进*推荐20240821 【平安证券】诺诚健华（688428.SH） ...

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows structural recovery, with GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, meeting the target set during the "Two Sessions" [12] - Industrial production remains resilient, with industrial added value in December 2025 rising to 5.2% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors outperforming with growth rates of 9.4% and 9.2% respectively [12] - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment down 3.8% year-on-year, while consumption shows mixed performance, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025 [12][14] - Exports have rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, particularly in high-tech products like automobiles and integrated circuits, which grew by 71.6% and 47.8% respectively [14][15] A-Share Market - In January, the A-share market experienced a "New Year Rally," leading to a spring market trend, with a significant increase in trading volume, averaging over 30 trillion yuan [9][12] - The outlook for February suggests a stable pre-holiday market, with a high likelihood of a "spring market" rally post-holiday, focusing on sectors with clear policy guidance and high earnings certainty [5][9] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in January saw a continuation of monetary easing, with bond yields declining [5][9] - The outlook for February indicates a focus on structural opportunities within a fluctuating market environment [5][9] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to show a fluctuating pattern, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to a lack of significant rebound in the dollar and strong potential settlement forces [5][9] Overseas Markets - The US bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by economic fundamentals and changes in interest rate expectations [5][9] - The US stock market is projected to experience fluctuations, supported by resilient economic data, but scrutiny on technology companies' earnings may increase during the earnings season [5][9] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain strong, buoyed by domestic spring market dynamics and regulatory easing on IPOs [5][9] Commodities - Gold prices are facing adjustment pressure after a rapid increase, with expectations of wide fluctuations [5][9] - Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased energy consumption during winter [5][9]

证券研究报告 银行业月报 ——行业盈利温和修复，关注优质区域行 银行行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 袁喆奇 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520080003 研究助理 李灵琇 一般证券业务编号：S1060124070021 2026年2月4日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 注：全文所指银行指数均为银行（中信）指数 2 行业核心观点：资金结构深刻变化，顺势而为重配置轻交易。资金流向的变化是推动板块估值修复中不可忽视的力量，一方面被动指数的持续扩容带来了稳定的资 金流入，板块高权重的特征仍将持续推动资金的流入，一方面银行板块低波高红利的特征更易获得险资等中长期资金的青睐，目前板块平均股息率达到4.50%，结 合监管一系列引导中长期资金入市的措施，预计板块的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。个股维度，我们结合股息和潜在增量中长期资金流入空间，看好A股股份行 板块以及部分优质区域行（成都、江苏、上海、苏州、长沙），同时关注更具股息优势的港股大行配置机会。 25年度快报综述：营收盈利回暖，资产质量稳中有进。营收盈利回暖，资产质量稳中有进。截至1月末，共10家银行披露2025年度业绩快报，大部分银行营收盈利 同比增速均 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现 5%以上) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential inclusion of copper concentrate in the national reserve system, which is expected to elevate the strategic resource status of copper gradually. This move aims to enhance the security of copper resources in China [4][6]. - The report indicates a continuous decline in copper concentrate processing fees, with long-term contracts dropping from $80/ton in 2024 to $21.25/ton in the second half of 2025, and further to $0/ton by 2026. This suggests a persistent tightness in copper concentrate supply [6]. - U.S. copper inventories have been increasing significantly, with a total of 192,000 tons at the end of the first half of 2025 and 259,000 tons accumulated in the second half. By the end of January 2026, COMEX copper inventories reached 524,000 tons, representing 33.2% of the U.S. refined copper consumption in 2024 [6]. - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are expected to improve, with long-term copper prices anticipated to rise steadily due to global industrial upgrades and increased demand from data center construction [6]. Summary by Sections Copper Resource Reserve Expansion - The report discusses the expansion of the national copper strategic reserve, including the potential addition of tradeable and easily liquidated copper concentrates to the reserve system [4][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply side remains constrained, with ongoing global copper resource shortages. The demand for copper is expected to grow due to advancements in core industries and the construction of data centers [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages, specifically recommending Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. as a potential investment opportunity [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The medical device bidding market is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2025, driven by policy and demand resonance, with a projected market size of CNY 193.76 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [3][11] - The upward trend for medical device companies is clear for 2026, with multiple policies expected to support the continuous development of medical innovation [4][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end product localization and innovation in driving growth for leading domestic companies [33][41] Summary by Sections Bidding Review - The medical device bidding market in 2025 is projected to reach CNY 193.76 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 24%, second only to the peak in 2022 [3][11] - Monthly bidding trends show sustained high levels, with procurement amounts from July to December ranging from CNY 134 billion to CNY 285 billion [3][11] - Key segments such as medical imaging equipment and radiation therapy devices are expected to see significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 35.37% and 36.34% respectively [3][16] 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates a clear upward turning point for medical device companies in 2026, supported by policies aimed at promoting medical innovation and equipment updates [4][29] - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer replacement policies is expected to further stimulate market demand [4][29] - The report highlights the potential for domestic companies to benefit from high-end product upgrades and the commercialization of brain-computer interface technologies [4][50] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic companies that are enhancing their high-end and intelligent medical device offerings, such as Mindray, United Imaging, and KaiLi Medical [4][33] - It also recommends monitoring companies involved in brain-computer interfaces and domestic robotics, which are expected to see significant growth in the coming years [4][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In Q4 2025, overseas bond funds mainly increased their positions in MBS (+2.6pp) and treasury bonds (+2.4pp), reduced derivatives (-5.3pp), and slightly increased corporate bonds. However, they were still significantly underweight in treasury bonds compared to the benchmark index. The funds slightly extended the duration in Q4 2025 [3]. - In the credit - bond portfolio, in Q4 2025, funds mainly increased their positions in the communications (+1.1pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.5pp) sectors, and reduced their positions in the banking (-0.7pp) and energy (-0.3pp) sectors. The overall credit quality of the portfolio slightly improved as funds mainly reduced their positions in BBB - rated bonds and increased their positions in AA - rated bonds [2][3]. - From an individual bond perspective, the companies that funds increased the most in Q4 last year included internet technology companies such as Meta and Amazon. In absolute terms, the companies that funds were overweight compared to the benchmark index were concentrated in sectors like banking, automotive, and tobacco, and they also maintained an overweight position in sectors such as TMT and health insurance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Analysis Sample - The report selected US actively managed funds with a large asset management scale and timely data disclosure as observation samples, including comprehensive investment - grade funds and pure corporate - bond funds. Comprehensive funds were used as samples for analyzing the large - asset allocation of funds, and all sample funds were used for analyzing the credit - bond portfolio [3]. 3.2 Asset Allocation - As of Q4 2025, overseas bond funds mainly increased their positions in MBS (+2.6pp), treasury bonds (+2.4pp), and slightly increased corporate bonds compared to Q3, while reducing derivatives (-5.3pp). However, they were still significantly underweight in treasury bonds compared to the benchmark index [3]. - In Q4 last year, the funds slightly extended the duration [3]. 3.3 Credit - Bond Portfolio - **Industry Allocation**: In Q4 2025, funds mainly increased their positions in the communications (+1.1pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.5pp) sectors, and reduced their positions in the banking (-0.7pp) and energy (-0.3pp) sectors. The banking sector still had a relatively high proportion in credit bonds, accounting for 26% as of Q4 2025 [3]. - **Comparison with the Benchmark Index**: Compared with the previous quarter, funds were overweight in the communications (+0.3pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.1pp) sectors and underweight in the technology (-0.2pp), banking (-0.1pp), and power (-0.1pp) sectors. Compared with Q4 2024, in 2025, funds were mainly overweight in the technology (+0.4pp), cyclical consumption (+0.4pp), communications (+0.3pp), and insurance (+0.2pp) sectors and underweight in the banking (-0.5pp) and power (-0.2pp) sectors [3]. - **Rating Allocation**: Funds mainly reduced their positions in BBB - rated bonds and increased their positions in AA - rated bonds, with the credit quality of the portfolio slightly improving. In the industry distribution, funds maintained a BBB - rated - based allocation in most industries but carried out credit downgrades in the communications, cyclical consumption, and public - utility sectors [2]. - **Individual Bond Analysis**: The companies that funds increased the most in Q4 last year included internet technology companies such as Meta and Amazon, possibly affected by new - bond supply. In absolute terms, the companies that funds were overweight compared to the benchmark index were concentrated in sectors such as banking (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS), automotive (e.g., Ford, General Motors, Hyundai), and tobacco; in addition, funds also maintained an overweight position in sectors such as TMT (e.g., Oracle, Meta, Broadcom) and health insurance, which were sectors with attractive valuations [2].

Core Insights - The report indicates a continuation of the profit improvement trend in A-shares, with a disclosure rate of 55.8% for 2025 annual reports as of January 31, 2026 [1] - The sectors with the highest pre-announcement rates and profit growth are concentrated in upstream materials and technology manufacturing [1][2] - The overall pre-announcement rate for 2025 is 35.8%, showing a marginal increase from 33.5% in 2024, with the highest rates in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and automotive sectors [3][5] Industry Comparison - The highest pre-announcement rates range from 50% to 82% in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and automotive sectors, while the lowest rates (below 25%) are found in coal, real estate, light manufacturing, food and beverage, and retail sectors [1][2] - Profit growth rates for 2025 show non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, steel, automotive, and public utilities leading with a median year-on-year growth of 40% to 70% [2] - The report highlights that the profit growth for the majority of sectors, except for non-ferrous metals and steel, has improved compared to the third quarter of 2025 [2] Profit Growth Insights - The median year-on-year profit growth for all A-shares is reported at 17.9%, with a significant improvement of 12.6 percentage points from the third quarter [3][4] - The growth rates for the main boards, ChiNext, and STAR Market are 14.3%, 24.9%, and 22.4% respectively, indicating substantial improvements across all boards [3][4] - Specific sectors such as personal care products, electric motors, and aviation equipment show remarkable profit growth forecasts ranging from 65% to 275% for 2025 [2][11] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the overall profit improvement trend in A-shares is expected to continue, with structural highlights in upstream price increases and technology manufacturing [6] - Short-term market conditions are anticipated to remain favorable, with a focus on sectors with strong earnings support [6] - Mid-term expectations include continued policy support and industrial innovation driving profit improvements, with recommendations to focus on technology growth, commodity price beneficiaries, advanced manufacturing, and dividend assets [6]

Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, and the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman has caused short-term disturbances in the market. Specifically, the MSCI global index rose by 0.65%, while U.S. stocks experienced slight adjustments. The S&P 500 increased by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 indices fell by 0.2%, 0.4%, and 2.1% respectively [2][13][23] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for December was reported at 3.0%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.8%. This data is crucial for monetary policy as several components of the PPI will be included in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, potentially influencing future interest rate decisions [2][8] - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations. On January 29, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. The meeting indicated a slightly improved view of the economic situation, changing the description of economic activity from "moderate" to "steady" expansion [2][8] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump has led to market fluctuations. Warsh criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies, leading to perceptions of a hawkish stance on interest rates. However, he supports rate cuts and believes the current pace of cuts is too slow [2][8] - The report suggests that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influenced by Trump's statements, leading to increased volatility in the U.S. stock market. The dollar may strengthen, while gold, despite benefiting from safe-haven demand, may experience increased volatility due to profit-taking and fluctuating rate cut expectations [2][8] Market Overview - In the bond market, the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by 2 basis points and 8 basis points to 4.26% and 3.52% respectively [16] - In commodities and foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.40% to 97.12. COMEX gold and silver prices decreased by 1.52% and 17.44%, while ICE Brent crude oil rose by 6.71% [16][14] - The Hong Kong stock market saw overall gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Stock Connect rising by 2.4%, 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.9% respectively. However, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.4% [32][28] Sector Performance - In the U.S. stock market, the energy sector (3.9%), communication services (3.8%), and utilities (1.7%) showed relatively good performance, while healthcare (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.4%), and materials (-1.2%) experienced declines [27] - The report indicates that online education (6.6%), Chinese education training (4.3%), U.S. infrastructure stocks (3.7%), and Tesla (3.4%) were among the leading concept indices [27][24] Hong Kong Market Insights - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is currently outperforming the U.S. market, driven by an increase in domestic risk appetite. The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive, with potential for upward movement [2][32] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with relative valuation advantages that are favored by foreign and southbound capital, including information technology, discretionary consumption, and healthcare [2][32]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Softcare, for the first time [6]. Core Insights - Softcare is a multinational hygiene products company focused on emerging markets, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia. It has established itself as a leader in the African baby diaper and sanitary napkin markets, holding market shares of 20.3% and 15.6% respectively as of 2024 [6][13]. - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth due to the establishment of local production facilities in Africa, with projected revenues of $454 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [5][17]. - The African market is expected to see significant growth in the hygiene products sector, driven by a young population, increasing urbanization, and rising disposable incomes [19][28]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Softcare launched its first product, Softcare baby diapers, in Ghana in 2009 and has since expanded its brand portfolio to include Maya, Veesper, Cuettie, and Clincleer, catering to various consumer segments [10][13]. - The company has established eight production facilities across different African countries, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and supply chain efficiency [10][41]. Market Potential - The African economy is projected to grow at a rate of 4.1% in 2025, which is higher than the global average, providing a favorable environment for the growth of hygiene products [19]. - The young population in Africa, with over 60% under the age of 30, and a birth rate of approximately 3.2% from 2020 to 2024, is expected to drive demand for baby products [23][24]. Competitive Advantages - Softcare has a well-defined brand matrix and has received multiple awards, enhancing its brand recognition and consumer trust [36][37]. - The company operates a robust distribution network with over 2,800 wholesalers, distributors, and retailers across Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia, ensuring extensive market reach [45][46]. - The local production strategy allows Softcare to reduce costs and improve product quality, with a significant increase in gross margins for its products from 2022 to 2024 [43][41]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $534 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2025 to 2027 [5][6]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is $95 million, with a significant increase in profitability expected in the coming years [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianyue Advanced (688234.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is actively expanding its large-size product offerings, but declining product prices are putting pressure on gross margins [1][7] - For 2025, the company expects revenue to be between 1.45 billion and 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year decrease of 17.99% to 15.17% [4][7] - The projected net loss attributable to shareholders for 2025 is between 225 million and 185 million yuan, a significant decline of 225.68% to 203.34% compared to the previous year [4][7] - The company has a strong first-mover advantage in the 12-inch silicon carbide substrate market, with increasing demand driven by the growth of the global electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors [7][8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.25 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 199.9%, followed by a decrease to 1.47 billion yuan in 2025 [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to be 17.5% in 2025, down from 25.9% in 2024 [6][10] - The company anticipates a return to profitability in 2026 with a net profit of 100 million yuan and further growth to 345 million yuan in 2027 [6][10] - The company has established a product matrix for 6/8/12-inch silicon carbide substrates, enhancing its competitive position in the market [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully established partnerships with leading firms in the optical field, expanding its customer base and product applications [8] - The introduction of the first 12-inch silicon carbide substrate is expected to significantly increase chip production efficiency and reduce costs [8] - The company is focusing on maintaining its technological leadership through continuous investment in R&D, despite the challenges posed by rising sales and R&D expenses [7][8]