证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——证监会推动做好金融"五篇大文章"，保资开展投资黄金业务试点 证券分析师 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 韦霁雯S1060524070004（证券投资咨询） 2 2 CONTENT 目录 研究助理 许 淼S1060123020012（一般证券业务） 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 2025年2月9日 核心观点 1、证监会发布《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》。2月7日，中国证监会制定了《关于资本市场做好金融 "五篇大文章"的实施意见》。《实施意见》围绕加强对科技型企业全链条全生命周期的金融服务，丰富资本市场推动绿色低碳 转型的产品制度体系，提升资本市场服务普惠金融效能，推动资本市场更好满足多元化养老金融需求，加快推进数字化、智能化 赋能资本市场，加强行业机构金融"五篇大文章"服务能力，提升资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的合力等方面提出18条政策 举措。为资本市场更好做好"五篇大文章"指明了方向， ...

食品饮料周报 春节平稳过度，供给持续优化 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 食品行业 资料来源：iFind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅+0.12%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金种子酒（+4.16%）、舍得酒业（+3.24%）、天佑德酒 （+2.57%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为岩石股份（-3.62%）、迎驾贡酒（-3.68%）、古井贡酒（-5.89%）。 观点：春节平稳过度，供给持续优化。春节白酒消费偏刚性，虽仍有压力但实现平稳过度，其中婚宴预订回补明显；得益于返乡人 数稳定增长，大众流通平稳；商务场景仍然疲软。此外，酒厂加大供给侧调控，通过减量、控货等方式挺价，维持价值链稳定与渠 道健康，利好长期 ...

Investment Rating - The banking industry is rated as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" strategy, driven by policy measures that enhance sector valuation recovery. The average dividend yield for the sector is 4.39%, which remains historically high compared to the risk-free rate represented by the 10-year government bond yield. This indicates a continued appeal for fixed-income-like investments. The report also highlights the potential for improved earnings from regional banks benefiting from economic recovery and policy effectiveness [3][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of January 27, 2025, the banking sector's static price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.66, implying an embedded non-performing loan (NPL) ratio exceeding 15%, indicating a substantial margin of safety. The report recommends focusing on regional banks with robust fundamentals and those expected to benefit from policy recovery, such as Chengdu, Changsha, Suzhou, Changshu, and Ningbo. Additionally, high-dividend stocks like ICBC, CCB, and Shanghai Bank are highlighted for their continued investment value [3][11]. Earnings and Credit Growth - By January 27, 2025, nine banks had reported their 2024 earnings, showing an overall improvement in revenue compared to the first three quarters of 2024. The report notes that seven banks have shown a marginal recovery in profit growth, with stable asset quality across most banks. The report anticipates that the "opening red" credit issuance will remain positive, although slightly lower than the same period in 2024 due to the timing of the Spring Festival [4][8]. Market Trends - In January 2025, the banking sector rose by 1.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.30 percentage points, ranking second among 30 sectors. The report indicates a mixed performance among individual bank stocks, with notable gains in Ningbo Bank (+8.5%), Industrial Bank (+6.0%), and Qilu Bank (+5.9%) [15][21]. Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for January 2025 is reported at 49.1%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points. The report also notes that the 1-year MLF and LPR rates remained stable, while the interbank lending rates showed mixed changes. The report highlights that the total social financing scale increased by 2.85 trillion yuan in December 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0% [23][32][40][47]. Individual Stock Recommendations - Chengdu Bank is recommended for its strong regional resource advantages, with projected EPS growth of 13.1% to 15.1% from 2024 to 2026. The stock is currently valued at a PB of 0.89x to 0.68x for the same period [50][51]. - Changsha Bank is highlighted for its retail business potential, with projected EPS growth of 6.4% to 13.7% from 2024 to 2026, currently valued at a PB of 0.56x to 0.46x [54][56]. - Suzhou Bank is noted for its strong asset quality and growth potential, with projected profit growth of 10.4% to 11.2% from 2024 to 2026, currently valued at a PB of 0.72x to 0.61x [59][61].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a leading provider of internet financial information services and a top online securities trading system supplier in China, with nearly 30 years of industry experience [4][9] - The company's revenue growth is closely tied to the activity level of the capital market, with a significant increase in trading volume expected to drive revenue performance [4][12] - The company has a large C-end user base, with approximately 625 million registered users on its financial service platform as of mid-2024 [10] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 4.002 billion, 4.511 billion, and 5.106 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 12.7%, and 13.2% respectively [4][12] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.516 billion, 1.736 billion, and 2.050 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 8.1%, 14.5%, and 18.1% respectively [4][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.82, 3.23, and 3.81 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][12] Group 3: Industry Insights - In the food and beverage sector, the demand for high-end liquor remains strong, with recommendations for brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, while the mid-range liquor market is also expanding [5][16] - The white liquor market is experiencing a rational supply-side control, with manufacturers managing inventory and pricing to maintain channel health and stability [5][16] - The AI sector is seeing significant investment opportunities, with recommendations for companies involved in domestic computing infrastructure and algorithm development, such as Inspur Information and iFlytek [5][21] Group 4: Market Trends - The overall consumer demand during the Spring Festival showed resilience, with notable growth in tourism and retail sales, indicating a positive outlook for the consumer market in 2025 [23][24] - The film industry is entering a new era dominated by major intellectual properties (IPs), as evidenced by record box office numbers during the Spring Festival [27][28] - The banking sector, particularly Ningbo Bank, is showing steady growth in revenue and profit, with a focus on maintaining asset quality and expanding its loan portfolio [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading provider of internet financial information services in China, with a strong correlation between its revenue growth and the activity level of the capital market. The report anticipates that the increasing demand for financial information services will drive revenue growth [6][8]. - The company has a robust C-end user base and a wide channel network, with four main business segments showing promising growth prospects: value-added telecommunications, advertising promotion, fund sales, and software sales [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has nearly 30 years of experience in the financial information services industry and has maintained a strong focus on technological innovation [15][16]. - The ownership structure is stable, with the founder holding a significant share of 36.13% [18]. Financial Analysis - Revenue growth is closely tied to the activity level of the capital market, with significant growth observed during bullish market conditions, such as 443% in 2015 and 63% in 2020 [20]. - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.77% in revenue and 17.20% in net profit from 2018 to 2023 [22]. Business Segments - **Value-Added Telecommunications**: This segment is the backbone of the company's revenue, averaging 46% of total revenue from 2019 to 2023, supported by a large user base of approximately 625 million registered users [37]. - **Advertising Promotion**: The company leads in advertising revenue due to its extensive C-end user base and partnerships with 88 brokerage firms, achieving an average gross margin of 95.25% from 2019 to 2023 [47]. - **Fund Sales**: The company ranks among the top independent sales organizations for fund management, benefiting from the accelerated expansion of ETFs [6]. - **Software Sales**: Revenue from this segment is expected to grow with increased trading activity and IT investments in the securities industry [6]. Technological Innovation - The company has adopted an "ALL in AI" strategy since 2019, launching the financial dialogue model HithinkGPT in early 2024, which integrates multi-modal capabilities for financial advisory services [8][7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 40.02 billion, 45.11 billion, and 51.06 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 12.7%, and 13.2% [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [67] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for liquor during the Spring Festival is stable, with a notable recovery in banquet bookings, despite a pessimistic outlook prior to the holiday [3][9] - There is a clear differentiation in performance among brands, with premium liquor performing better, reflecting a "Matthew Effect" where consumer preference is shifting towards leading brands [10][14] - Supply-side management is emphasized, with manufacturers focusing on maintaining channel health and profitability for distributors through inventory control and flexible payment terms [18][19] Summary by Sections Overall Feedback - The Spring Festival liquor sales are stable, with banquet bookings showing significant recovery. The overall market sentiment was pessimistic due to a weak consumption environment leading up to the holiday [3][9] - The consumer demand for liquor remains rigid, particularly for social gatherings, while business demand is still weak [9] Brand and Price Band Performance - The performance of liquor brands shows a clear divide, with high-end and mid-range products experiencing the most growth. The low-end segment is under pressure, particularly in business contexts [10][14] - The high-end liquor market remains stable, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining their positions, while mid-range products are benefiting from increased consumer traffic during the holiday [14][52] Supply Management - Manufacturers are adopting a cautious approach to supply, focusing on healthy channel management and profitability for distributors. This includes flexible payment terms and inventory control measures [18][19] - The overall strategy is to stabilize the value chain and ensure long-term growth prospects in the face of current demand pressures [19][63] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: high-end liquor with strong demand (Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range liquor with national expansion (Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor brands (Yingjia Gongjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu) [63][64]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [67] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for liquor during the Spring Festival is stable, with a notable recovery in banquet bookings, despite a pessimistic outlook prior to the holiday [3][9] - There is a clear differentiation in performance among brands, with premium liquor performing better, reflecting a trend where consumption is shifting towards well-known brands [3][10] - The cautious stocking behavior of distributors is evident, with increased inventory levels compared to the previous year, indicating pressure on profitability [3][15] - Supply-side management is being emphasized by manufacturers to maintain channel health and stabilize prices, which is beneficial for long-term development [3][18] - Future demand is expected to improve with the implementation of macroeconomic policies, potentially boosting liquor consumption [3][63] Summary by Sections Overall Feedback - The Spring Festival sales are overall stable, with significant recovery in banquet bookings, although the consumption environment remains challenging [3][5][9] Brand and Price Band Performance - There is a clear trend of premium liquor outperforming others, with mid-to-high-end price bands showing the fastest growth [3][10][14] - The market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," where consumer preference is increasingly concentrated on leading brands, while lesser-known brands struggle [3][10] Market Segmentation - Banquet bookings have rebounded significantly, and the general circulation of liquor remains stable, although business demand is still weak [3][9][56] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include high-end liquor with strong demand such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao; next-tier liquor like Shanxi Fenjiu; and real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Gujing Gongjiu [3][63][64]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The 2025 Spring Festival box office reached a record high of 9.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.6%, and the number of viewers was approximately 187 million, up 14.7% year-on-year [2][6] - The average daily box office during the Spring Festival was 1.355 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 35.3% [6] - The audience's preferences are diversifying, with high-quality content driving box office growth [6] - Major films during the Spring Festival included "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" leading with a box office of 4.839 billion yuan, followed by "Detective Chinatown 3" and others [6] - The rise of well-known IP films is enhancing ticket sales and social media engagement, with over 32.8 billion Weibo reads and a 43% increase in discussions [6] - The industry is entering a "Big IP" era, with the success of major films indicating a shift towards IP-driven content [6] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - The Spring Festival box office for 2025 was 9.51 billion yuan, with a 18.6% increase year-on-year, and viewer numbers reached 187 million, up 14.7% [2][6] Audience Engagement - The films generated significant social media activity, with Weibo readings exceeding 32.8 billion and discussions increasing by 43% [6] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the film industry is transitioning into a "Big IP" era, with successful IP films leading the market [6] - It is recommended to focus on leading film companies with quality content reserves and production capabilities, particularly Light Media and Maoyan Entertainment [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][3][16] Core Views - The company's revenue continues to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 8.20% in 2024, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 6.23% [4][8] - Total assets grew by 15.3% year-on-year by the end of 2024, with loans and deposits increasing by 17.8% and 17.2% respectively [4][8] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, indicating solid asset quality [8][12] - The company is expected to maintain a high level of profitability, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 4.10, 4.49, and 4.95 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating income is projected to be 64,650 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [6][14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 27,091 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 6.1% [6][14] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio is forecasted to decrease to 0.72% by 2025 and 0.70% by 2026, indicating an improving asset quality trend [14] - The provision coverage ratio is expected to decline to 398% by 2025, while still remaining at a high level [14] Growth Projections - The company anticipates a loan growth rate of 19.0% for 2024 and 2025, with total assets expected to grow at a rate of 14.8% [14] - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.6% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 14.0% by 2026 [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [52] Core Insights - The release of DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1 indicates that domestic large model capabilities are now comparable to leading overseas models, with lower costs and high performance expected to accelerate the deployment of large models in both B-end and C-end application scenarios [5][48][30] - DeepSeek's open-source, low-cost, and high-performance models are anticipated to significantly reduce the costs associated with obtaining, deploying, and applying large models, thereby enhancing their adoption across various industries [30][5] - The global attention garnered by DeepSeek's models is expected to impact the competitive landscape of the global large model industry, challenging the dominance of overseas leading model manufacturers [30][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: DeepSeek Model Releases - DeepSeek-V3, released on December 26, 2024, features a self-developed MoE model with 671 billion parameters and has shown superior performance compared to other open-source models [6][3] - The training cost for DeepSeek-V3 was approximately $557,600, significantly lower than comparable models like Llama 3 [8][9] - DeepSeek-R1, released on January 20, 2025, aligns in performance with OpenAI's o1, showcasing the competitive edge of domestic models [12][17] Section 2: Global Attention and Adoption - DeepSeek's AI assistant app became the most downloaded mobile application in 140 markets shortly after its launch, achieving 16 million downloads in just 18 days [21][22] - Major tech companies, including NVIDIA and Microsoft, have integrated DeepSeek models into their platforms, indicating strong industry acceptance [25][27] Section 3: Market Impact and Future Demand - The introduction of DeepSeek models is expected to maintain the upward trend in overall AI computing demand, particularly in inference and edge computing [31][36] - The low-cost and open-source nature of DeepSeek models is projected to lower the barriers for AI application across various sectors, enhancing the potential for rapid growth in inference computing needs [36][31] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their involvement in AI infrastructure and applications, including Inspur Information, Sugon, and iFLYTEK, among others [48]