Search documents
理想汽车-W(02015):销量、业绩暂承压,L系列亟待重振
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-01 07:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is currently facing pressure on sales and performance, particularly with the L series needing revitalization. The anticipated product upgrades in 2026 are seen as crucial for overcoming current challenges [4][7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 27.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 6.2 billion yuan [4]. - The company delivered 93,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, down 39.0% year-on-year and 16.1% quarter-on-quarter. The automotive sales revenue was 25.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 37.4% year-on-year and 10.4% quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for automotive business in Q3 was 15.5%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Excluding the impact of the MEGA recall, the gross margin would have been 19.8% [7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 9 billion, 36 billion, and 60 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision from previous estimates [8]. - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with October's deliveries at 32,000 units [7]. Product Strategy - The L series product upgrades are deemed essential for the company to navigate its current difficulties, with expectations for enhancements in features such as high-level autonomous driving capabilities and battery technology [7][8]. - The report highlights that the L9 model, which has been on the market for over three years, requires significant upgrades to improve its competitiveness [7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 154.2, indicating a high valuation relative to earnings, while the P/B ratio is projected to be 2.0 [6][12].
金融行业周报:全球重要性银行名单公布,资本市场投融资改革持续推进-20251201
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-01 05:35
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the CSI 300 index by more than 5% within the next six months [34]. Core Insights - The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has released the 2025 list of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs), with five Chinese state-owned banks included. Notably, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has moved to the third group, requiring an additional capital requirement increase from 1.5% to 2.0% [4][12]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a draft announcement for the pilot of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), aimed at revitalizing the commercial real estate market and filling the gap for quality investment targets [5][13]. - A joint announcement from six departments outlines a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods, targeting significant improvements in the supply structure by 2027 and fostering a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [6][19]. Summary by Sections Global Systemically Important Banks - The FSB has categorized Chinese banks into different groups, with ICBC in the third group, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank in the second group, and China Communications Bank in the first group. This classification reflects the banks' systemic importance and associated capital requirements [4][12]. Commercial Real Estate Investment Trusts - The CSRC's draft announcement outlines the framework for establishing Commercial REITs, which will allow investment in commercial real estate assets to generate stable cash flows. This initiative is expected to address challenges in the commercial real estate sector and enhance financing channels [5][13]. Consumer Goods Supply and Demand - The joint plan from six government departments aims to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods, with specific targets for 2027 and 2030. The focus is on creating significant consumer sectors and enhancing the quality of products available in the market [6][19]. Industry Data - The banking sector saw a net injection of 15,118 billion yuan through open market operations, while the SHIBOR rates showed mixed performance. The average daily trading volume in the stock market was 21,585 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.4% from the previous week [21][27][29]. - The insurance sector's ten-year government bond yield increased by 2.46 basis points, indicating a slight upward trend in interest rates [32].
电生理等集采开始报量,建议关注国产替代机会
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-01 04:59
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][31]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the initiation of centralized procurement for electrophysiology and neuro-interventional medical consumables in Beijing, which is expected to promote the entry of domestic high-end products and accelerate domestic substitution [4]. - The procurement covers all public medical institutions in Beijing, with a two-year agreement period, and includes various categories of electrophysiology and neuro-interventional products [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with comprehensive layouts in the electrophysiology field, such as Huatai Medical and Microelectrophysiology [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The centralized procurement for electrophysiology and neuro-interventional consumables has officially started, with a deadline for submission set for December 1 [4]. - The procurement is led by six top-tier hospitals in Beijing and aims to enhance the availability of domestic products [4]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends attention to innovative drug companies with rich pipeline layouts, such as Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and China Biopharmaceuticals [6]. - It also highlights companies with significant single-product potential and those leading in advanced technology platforms [6]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 2.67% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.64% [9][20]. - In the Hong Kong market, the pharmaceutical sector increased by 3.85%, leading among 11 sectors [30]. Notable Industry News - Abbott announced a $21 billion acquisition of Exact Sciences, enhancing its position in the cancer diagnostics field [13]. - Johnson & Johnson is acquiring Halda Therapeutics for $3.05 billion, focusing on prostate cancer treatments [14]. - A significant ophthalmic drug has been approved for market release, expanding treatment options for age-related macular degeneration [16]. - Novartis received approval for its oral drug Remibrutinib in China, targeting chronic spontaneous urticaria [17].
阿里巴巴发布2026财年二季报,资本开支和AI相关产品收入持续大幅增长
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-01 04:59
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 report shows significant growth in capital expenditure and AI-related product revenue, with a 80.1% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure to 31.5 billion yuan [2][7] - The AI-related product revenue continues to demonstrate strong momentum, achieving a triple-digit year-on-year growth for another quarter [6] - The competitive landscape in the global AI large model sector remains intense, driving the adoption and application of large models, which will boost the AI computing power market [21] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 report indicates a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a 15% increase when excluding disposed businesses [5] - The cloud intelligence business of Alibaba shows robust growth, with revenue reaching 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 34% [5][6] - Kuaishou's new multimodal model Keye-VL-671B-A37B has been released, showcasing superior performance in various benchmarks, which is expected to enhance the application of domestic large models [10][13] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index rose by 3.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points [15] - As of the last trading day of the week, the overall P/E ratio for the computer industry was 54.2 times, with 304 out of 360 A-share component stocks rising [18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI-related investment opportunities, particularly in AI computing power and algorithms [21] - Specific stock recommendations include HaiGuang Information, Industrial Fulian, Inspur Information, and others in the AI computing power sector, as well as strong recommendations for companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Zhongke Chuangda in AI algorithms and applications [21]
海外策略周报:降息预期升温,美股触底反弹-20251201
Ping An Securities· 2025-12-01 03:46
Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts, driven by ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks and gold prices, while the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices declined. The MSCI global stock index rose by 3.54%, with notable performances from the Russell 2000 (up 5.5%) and Nasdaq (up 4.9%) [2][16][22] - U.S. macroeconomic indicators show a significant decline in retail sales for September, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, down from 0.6% previously. Most retail categories experienced a slowdown, particularly in leisure goods, clothing, and automotive sales, although dining out remained strong [3][4][5] - The report notes that the U.S. job market remains weak, with initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level since April 2025, while the ADP employment figures have shown negative growth. The market anticipates an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 71.0% the previous week [10][11][12] - The report discusses potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership, with Hasset emerging as a leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, advocating for immediate rate cuts based on current economic data [2][12] - The report suggests that the recent rebound in U.S. stocks is primarily driven by rising rate cut expectations and market sentiment recovery rather than fundamental economic improvements. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the potential impact of the December economic policy meeting in China [2][22] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for September showed a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, significantly lower than the previous month's 0.6%. Key categories such as leisure goods, clothing, and automotive sales saw notable declines, while dining out remained robust [3][4][5] - The report indicates that the initial jobless claims in November fell to 216,000, the lowest since April 2025, while the ADP employment figures have consistently shown negative growth since late October [10][11][12] Market Performance - The report notes that the U.S. stock market has rebounded, with the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq leading the gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones also saw increases of 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively [2][22] - In terms of asset performance, the report highlights a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.71% to 99.44, while COMEX gold prices increased by 4.77% [21][22] - The report emphasizes that the technology sector has led the market rally, with significant contributions from Chinese solar and OLED concepts [28][33]
美联储降息预期提振原油价格
Ping An Securities· 2025-11-30 09:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has boosted crude oil prices, with WTI crude futures closing up 0.71% and Brent oil futures up 1.09% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical developments, including ongoing negotiations regarding a peace plan between Ukraine and the U.S., are influencing market sentiment, although the Russian response remains cautious [6]. - In the chemical sector, the supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is limited, maintaining high prices, while demand in the automotive and air conditioning sectors is expected to grow [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut is expected to support crude oil prices, despite a weak demand outlook in the U.S. and China [6]. - The report notes that the oil price may experience volatility in the short term, but long-term trends will be influenced by fundamental supply and demand dynamics, particularly with OPEC+ production increases [7]. Fluorochemicals - The report indicates that the supply of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing due to policy restrictions, while third-generation refrigerants have limited production quotas [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to improve, driven by government incentives and a recovery in air conditioning production [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals, suggesting potential for further price increases [7].
地产行业月报:政策预期有所升温,持续看好优质企业-20251128
Ping An Securities· 2025-11-28 09:21
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the sales decline in October and November is expanding due to the high base from the previous year, with a need for macro policies to stabilize residents' income expectations and enhance purchasing power. The report emphasizes the importance of improving residents' willingness and ability to buy homes to stabilize the housing market [2][3] - The report suggests that the key to the housing market's stabilization lies in the improvement of residents' purchasing power and willingness to buy homes, which will ultimately lead to an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The report highlights the necessity of reducing mortgage rates through measures such as interest rate cuts or government subsidies to enhance the attractiveness of home purchases [2] Summary by Sections Policy - The report discusses the promotion of high-quality development in real estate, emphasizing the "Good House" initiative during the 14th Five-Year Plan, which aims to improve housing standards, design, materials, construction, and maintenance [3][4][5] Financing - The report notes a year-on-year decrease in long-term loans to residents, with a significant drop in new long-term loans in October 2025, amounting to a reduction of 700 billion yuan, which is 1.8 trillion yuan less than the previous year [10][11] Real Estate Market - The report states that the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities fell by 31.4% year-on-year in October and by 46.3% in November, while the second-hand housing market also saw significant declines [19][25] - The report indicates that the average land supply in 100 cities was 1.3 million square meters in October, a decrease of 17.2% month-on-month, while the average transaction area increased by 3.4% [26] Real Estate Companies - The report highlights that the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 40.6% year-on-year in October, with a cumulative decline of 16.7% for the first ten months of 2025 [34][38] - The report mentions that the average land acquisition ratio for the top 50 real estate companies increased, indicating a rise in land acquisition activity despite the overall sales decline [38] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 2.37% in October, while the current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 62.32, significantly higher than the 13.92 for the broader market [42]
绿城管理控股(09979):行业竞争趋于理性,经营筑底分红较高
Ping An Securities· 2025-11-26 07:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 3.12 [1]. Core Views - The competitive landscape in the construction management industry is stabilizing, with a return to rational growth, presenting incremental opportunities. Despite increased competition and a decline in new contract signings for 2024, the market share of leading firms continues to expand, and the focus is shifting towards risk management and profitability [6][10]. - The company is experiencing positive operational signals, with a high dividend yield providing valuation support. The company has maintained a high payout ratio and is expected to implement interim dividends for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream property management companies [20][51]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction management industry is witnessing a return to rational competition, with the market stabilizing as new entrants have diminished. The focus is now on the leading firms, which are prioritizing risk control and profitability [6][10]. - Urban renewal and supportive policies for quality housing are expected to create structural growth opportunities within the industry, despite a current decline in single-unit construction fees [10][18]. Operational Performance - Greentown Management Holdings has a robust order book, with a total construction area of 12.65 million square meters as of the first half of 2025. The company has seen a year-on-year increase in new contract values and construction areas [20][23]. - The company’s cash flow is improving, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and a high cash reserve, allowing for a strong dividend policy [51][55]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 show a decline to HKD 29.94 billion, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027. The gross margin is anticipated to remain around 40% in 2025, with a potential increase in the following years [5][58]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to HKD 0.28, but the company is expected to recover to HKD 0.31 in 2026 and HKD 0.34 in 2027, reflecting its competitive advantages in the construction management sector [60].
地方化债系列之四:2025年新增地方债限额的使用特点及展望
Ping An Securities· 2025-11-26 06:57
Report Title Localized Debt Resolution Series IV: Usage Characteristics and Outlook of New Local Bond Quotas in 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - The risk prevention function of new local bonds is strengthening, weakening the negative impact of government bond supply on the bond market. This is reflected in the highest proportion of new local bond quotas allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, slower issuance progress of new local bonds, and a significant decline in the proportion of project construction bonds [2]. - In 2025, the government may not advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota. The net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal. In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments, with a more significant decline in local debt increments. The issuance of new local bonds may accelerate compared to 2025, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory PART1: 2025 New Local Bond Regional Allocation and Issuance Progress 1.1 Limit Allocation - In the past two years, more new local bond quotas have been allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, reducing the impact of government bond supply on the bond market. The decline in the supply of new bonds in key provinces reduces the supply of high - coupon assets [9]. - The average growth rate of new local bond quotas in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces in the past two years has exceeded the national average. Key provinces have seen a restorative increase in quotas this year, but their average growth rate in the past two years remains negative. Ten provinces have experienced negative growth in new local bond quotas in the past two years, mostly key provinces [12]. 1.2 Issuance Progress - This year, the issuance of new local bonds has been slow, while the issuance of special refinancing bonds has been fast, aiming to strengthen risk prevention. The slow issuance of new local bonds may be due to staggered issuance with national bonds and special refinancing bonds, and a decrease in the pressure to stabilize growth [13]. - The issuance of non - project construction new local bonds has been fast, while that of project construction new local bonds has been slow, also strengthening the risk prevention function of new bonds [19]. - This year, the issuance progress of new local bonds in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces has been faster than that in other provinces and has accelerated compared to 2024. The issuance speed of new local bonds in key and other provinces has decreased compared to 2024, possibly due to an increase in their risk prevention tasks [22]. PART2: 2025 New Features of New Local Bond Usage 2.1 Two Major Categories - This year, many provinces have divided new special bonds into three uses, corresponding to two major categories: non - project construction (including supplementing fund financial resources and clearing arrears) and project construction. The proportions of these three uses are 24.6%, 16.7%, and 58.7% respectively. The proportion of project construction limits in key provinces is significantly lower [28]. - From January to October this year, the proportion of project construction bonds in the issuance of new local bonds was only 73%, a continuous decline for three years, indicating a weakening of the growth - stabilizing function of new local bonds. The proportion of project construction bonds in key provinces is the lowest, and the proportions in all three types of provinces are on a downward trend [33]. - The new or restarted sub - uses of project construction bonds this year are mainly land reserves, indicating a decline in the growth - stabilizing function of project construction special bonds. Non - project construction bonds have a new use of solving government arrears to enterprises [35]. 2.2.1 Project Construction Category - Compared with the whole year of 2024, the proportion of land reserves in project construction special bonds in the first 10 months of this year has increased by 14 percentage points, the proportion of infrastructure has decreased by 15 percentage points, the proportion of affordable housing has remained stable, government investment funds have emerged from scratch, and the proportion of new infrastructure has increased slightly [39]. 2.2.2 Project Construction Category - The restart of land reserve bonds in 2025 was originally intended to recover existing land, but in reality, they are mostly used for new land reserves. As of October 22, only 33% of the special bonds issued this year for land reserves were used for existing land reserves [43][47]. - Self - reviewed and self - issued provinces are the main issuers of land reserve bonds this year. Non - pilot provinces started issuing land reserve bonds in October, possibly due to the impact of central government approval speed [43]. 2.2.3 Project Construction Category - The scale of special bonds used for the acquisition of existing housing in 2025 is only 101 billion yuan. The scale of special bonds for the acquisition of existing housing and land is low, and they mostly target local state - owned enterprises, so their effect on reducing inventory and protecting real estate enterprises is weak [48]. 2.2.4 Project Construction Category - Using special bonds for government investment funds is beneficial for supporting science and technology innovation. This year, the scale of such special bonds may be about 125 billion yuan. Their impact on the bond market is limited [52][57]. 2.3.1 Non - Project Construction Category - The uses of debt - repayment new special bonds have expanded this year, and the scale has increased. "Solving government arrears to enterprises" and "supplementing government fund financial resources" are essentially debt - repayment, but the types of debts repaid are different [58]. - It is estimated that 567.9 billion yuan of arrears - clearing special bonds will be issued this year. From 2026 to 2028, 1367.9 billion, 1083.9 billion, and 800 billion yuan of new special bonds may be used for debt - repayment respectively [64]. 2.3.2 Non - Project Construction Category - Only 26 billion yuan of special bonds for capital replenishment of small and medium - sized banks were issued in the first 10 months of this year, and there is still a remaining quota of 20 billion yuan. Such bonds may be issued again by the end of this year [65]. PART3: In - Year and 2026 Outlook 3.1 In - Year Outlook - The progress of using the remaining quota is slow, so it is unlikely that the government will advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota this year. Considering the remaining quota, the net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal, about 516.4 billion and 516.7 billion yuan respectively [75]. 3.2 2026 Outlook - The first year of the Five - Year Plan does not necessarily correspond to fiscal stimulus. It mainly depends on the pressure to stabilize growth. From a historical perspective, the first year of the Five - Year Plan does not always see fiscal stimulus [76]. - In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments. The proportion of local debt in incremental government debt may decline [84]. - The government debt increment in 2026 may be 14 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.3 trillion yuan compared to 2025. The local debt increment may be 7.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [87]. - The issuance of new local bonds in 2026 may accelerate compared to this year, and the issuance of debt - repayment new bonds may be more front - loaded, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [88]. - The proportion of new local bonds used for project construction in 2026 may decline slightly compared to 2025, weakening the growth - stabilizing function. The scale of project construction special bonds used for new infrastructure and government investment funds may increase, but their impact on economic growth may be limited [94].
平安固收:2025年11月托管月报:年末债市需求仍有支撑-20251125
Ping An Securities· 2025-11-25 08:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in September. The newly - added custody scale was 1.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. The main contributor to the year - on - year increase was inter - bank certificates of deposit, while interest - rate bonds had a negative contribution. Credit bonds also increased significantly year - on - year [3][4]. - In terms of institutions, the bond - allocation power of allocation - type institutions declined, while non - legal person products significantly increased their bond allocation. Banks, insurance and other institutions decreased their bond allocation, especially banks, while non - legal person products and securities firms increased their bond allocation [3]. - Looking ahead, it is expected that the supply of government bonds from November to December will remain at a high level, but the year - on - year growth is expected to decline. The demand in the bond market at the end of the year still has support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Bond Custody in October - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in September. The newly - added custody scale was 1.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year [3][4]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Inter - bank certificates of deposit were the main contributor to the year - on - year increase in October, followed by credit bonds. Interest - rate bonds (treasury bonds + local government bonds + policy - based financial bonds) significantly decreased year - on - year, followed by financial bonds [3][9]. - The supply scale of government bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased in October. The supply of government bonds continued to decline, with treasury bonds decreasing by about 150 billion yuan and local government bonds decreasing by about 410 billion yuan year - on - year. Policy - based financial bonds were at a low level, and financial bond financing also continued at a low level [19]. - Credit bonds increased by nearly 190 billion yuan year - on - year in October, further expanding significantly. This was due to the repair of the corporate balance sheet, the decline in corporate financing costs, and the new policy on science - innovation bonds [20]. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit financing expanded significantly in October. The central bank restarted bond - buying operations, and banks may have increased the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit to meet credit demand [23]. 3.3 By Institution - **Banks**: Affected by the supply, after considering the net investment of 400 billion yuan in the central bank's outright reverse repurchase, banks' bond investment decreased by 680.4 billion yuan year - on - year in October. They mainly reduced their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - based financial bonds, financial bonds and credit bonds, and slightly increased their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [30][33]. - **Insurance**: Insurance slightly reduced its bond allocation year - on - year in October but continued to increase its allocation of local government bonds. The proportion of its increased government bond scale to the newly - added government bond custody was about 17.5%, significantly higher than the 9.6% in the past 12 months [36]. - **Non - legal person products**: They increased their bond holding by 1.03 trillion yuan in October, with a year - on - year increase of 978.2 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit, followed by credit bonds [37]. - **Foreign capital**: Foreign capital continued to reduce its bond holding in October, mainly increasing its holding of treasury bonds and reducing its holding of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The cost - performance of carry trade income was still insufficient [48]. - **Securities firms**: Securities firms increased their bond holding by 156.1 billion yuan in October, with a year - on - year increase of 131 billion yuan, mainly increasing their holding of treasury bonds and local government bonds [48]. 3.4 Outlook - **Supply**: It is expected that the supply of government bonds from November to December will remain at a high level, with a monthly supply scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, but the year - on - year growth is expected to decline due to the high base in the same period last year [50]. - **Demand**: - **Banks**: It is expected that from November to December, banks will follow the supply, with a relatively large bond - allocation scale but a year - on - year decrease. The allocation scale is expected to be between 1 and 1.5 trillion yuan [54]. - **Insurance**: Insurance institutions may have a certain willingness to scramble for bond allocation at the end of the year. If the government bond supply from November to December is 2.3 trillion yuan, the insurance allocation scale may exceed 40 billion yuan [58]. - **Asset management accounts**: It is expected that from November to December, asset management accounts will maintain a certain intensity of bond allocation, but it may be lower than that in October when they undertook a large number of inter - bank certificates of deposit [63].