Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Macro Indicator Trend Model - **Model Name**: Macro Indicator Trend Model - **Construction Idea**: Establish the relationship between macro indicators and asset performance by analyzing the trend of macro indicators and their impact on monthly asset returns[17][18] - **Construction Process**: - Use monthly moving averages of macro indicators to classify them into upward or downward trends - Apply T-test to determine whether the distribution of monthly returns of assets differs significantly under upward and downward trends - Formula: $ t = \frac{\overline{R_1} - \overline{R_2}}{\sqrt{\frac{(n_1-1)S_1^2 + (n_2-1)S_2^2}{n_1+n_2-2}(\frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2})}} \sim t_{n_1+n_2-2} $ - $\overline{R_1}$ and $\overline{R_2}$: Average monthly returns under upward and downward trends - $S_1$ and $S_2$: Standard deviations of monthly returns under upward and downward trends - $n_1$ and $n_2$: Number of months under upward and downward trends[17][18] - **Evaluation**: Effectively identifies macro indicators with significant impacts on asset returns[17][18] Technical Perspective Model - **Model Name**: Technical Perspective Model - **Construction Idea**: Evaluate asset trends, valuation, and fund flows using historical data and specific calculation methods[22][23][25] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend**: Use closing prices or LLT indicators to calculate trend indicators. Assign +1 for upward trends and -1 for downward trends[22] - **Valuation**: Calculate equity risk premium (ERP) as the reciprocal of PE(TTM) minus the 10-year government bond yield. Define historical 5-year percentile as: $ (Current ERP - Historical 5-year ERP Minimum) / (Historical 5-year ERP Maximum - Historical 5-year ERP Minimum) $ Assign scores based on percentile levels: +2 for >90%, +1 for 70%-90%, 0 for 30%-70%, -1 for 10%-30%, -2 for <10%[23][25] - **Fund Flows**: Calculate monthly active net inflows for indices and assess marginal changes. Assign +1 for positive changes and -1 for negative changes[26] - **Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive view of asset trends, valuation, and fund flows[22][23][25] Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Model Name**: Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Construction Idea**: Adjust asset weights based on macro and technical indicators while maintaining a fixed proportion baseline[36][40] - **Construction Process**: - Set baseline weights for equity, bonds, commodities, and currency assets - Adjust weights monthly based on macro and technical indicator signals[36][40] - **Evaluation**: Balances fixed proportion allocation with dynamic adjustments for improved performance[36][40] Controlled Volatility + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Model Name**: Controlled Volatility + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Construction Idea**: Limit annualized volatility to 6% while dynamically adjusting weights based on macro and technical indicators[46][50] - **Construction Process**: - Use risk parity as the baseline weight - Adjust weights monthly based on macro and technical indicator signals[46][50] - **Evaluation**: Reduces volatility while maintaining competitive returns[46][50] Equity Style Rotation Models - **Model Name**: Equity Style Rotation Models (Large/Small Cap and Growth/Value) - **Construction Idea**: Adjust weights between equity styles based on macro and technical indicators[57][58] - **Construction Process**: - Set baseline weights for large/small cap and growth/value styles - Adjust weights monthly based on macro and technical indicator signals[57][58] - **Evaluation**: Captures style rotation opportunities for enhanced returns[57][58] --- Model Backtesting Results Macro Indicator Trend Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly provided - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly provided - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly provided Technical Perspective Model - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly provided - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly provided - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly provided Fixed Proportion + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Annualized Return**: 10.20%[40] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 9.27%[40] - **Annualized Volatility**: 6.14%[40] Controlled Volatility + Macro Indicators + Technical Indicators Combination Model - **Annualized Return**: 10.46%[50] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 7.37%[50] - **Annualized Volatility**: 5.54%[50] Large/Small Cap Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 14.30%[61] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 49.10%[61] - **Annualized Volatility**: 22.30%[61] Growth/Value Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 14.43%[68] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 45.18%[68] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.57%[68]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|家用电器 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 科沃斯（603486.SH） 海外扫地机高增，国内经营承压静待拐点 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 15,502 | 16,542 | 19,221 | 22,091 | 25,140 | | 增长率（ % ） | 1.2% | 6.7% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 13.8% | | EBITDA | 1,056 | 1,698 | 2,262 | 2,615 | 3,087 | | 归母净利润 | 612 | 806 | 1,765 | 2,123 | 2,537 | | 增长率（ % ） | -64.0% | 31.7% | 118.9% | 20.3% | 19.5% | | EPS（元/股） | 1.06 | 1.40 | 3.07 | 3.69 | 4.41 | | 市 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（2 月第 2 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： bilulu@gf.com.cn 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [分析师： Table_Author]郑恺 SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 SFC CE No. BUU989 021-38003559 zhengkai@gf.com.cn 分析师： 耿正 SAC 执证号：S0260520090002 021-38003660 gengzheng@gf.com.cn 请注意，耿正并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 ⚫ 电子：AI 记忆为 Agent 的核心底层能力。Agent 时代 Memory 负责 跨轮次、跨任务的状态连续性，沉淀"我是谁"的个性画像，"从哪里 来"的交互历史及"要到哪里去"的目标与反馈闭环。Agent 通常可分 为四类记忆：工作记忆用于当前任务的临时信息存取与推理（ ...

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is recommended for a "Buy" rating, with a focus on companies like Jingyuan International, New Australia Co., and Bailong Oriental for their growth potential and favorable market conditions [4][11]. Textile and Apparel Industry Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.85%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 5.42%. The textile and apparel sector (SW) saw a growth of 6.15%, ranking 19th among 31 primary industries [11]. - Key companies that performed well during this period include China Gold (+81.46%), Hason Co. (+41.22%), and Bailong Oriental (+22.45%). Conversely, companies like Furui Co. (-5.56%) and Nanshan Zhishang (-12.54%) faced declines [18]. Textile and Apparel Industry Data Tracking - In December, China's zipper and parts exports decreased by 4.4%, cotton sock exports fell by 10.6%, and seamless apparel exports dropped by 12.4%. In contrast, retail sales in the UK for textiles, clothing, and footwear rose by 5.1% year-on-year in December [4][11]. - The latest PE (TTM) for the textile and apparel industry is 21.43X, with historical highs and lows of 57.80X and 14.44X, respectively [14][15]. Light Industry Manufacturing Market Review - The light industry sector (SW) increased by 5.67%, ranking 21st among 31 primary industries. The report suggests that the export fundamentals remain relatively strong, with potential improvements in external environments such as U.S. real estate transactions [4][11]. Light Industry Manufacturing Data Tracking - The report indicates a 26.16% year-on-year decrease in commodity housing transaction area in 30 major cities from January 1 to February 1. Prices for various paper products have shown mixed trends, with prices for waste yellow board paper decreasing by 3.28% month-on-month [4][11].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The textile and apparel sector saw a 6.15% increase in the period from January 1 to January 30, 2026, ranking 19th among 31 primary industries [13]. - The light industry sector increased by 5.67% during the same period, ranking 21st among the same industries [13]. Group 2: Key Company Recommendations - For upstream textile manufacturing, the report recommends focusing on Jingyuan International due to its stable performance, low valuation, and high dividend yield, with significant growth potential [5]. - New Australia Co. is highlighted for its optimistic price outlook in the wool market, while Baolong Oriental is suggested if cotton prices rebound [5]. - In the downstream apparel and home textile sector, Li Ning is recommended to leverage the upcoming Winter Olympics for brand and performance enhancement [5]. - The report also suggests关注罗莱生活, 水星家纺, and 富安娜 as beneficiaries of the rising sleep economy [5]. - Jin Hong Group and Hailan Home are noted for their recovery in traditional business and high growth potential in new consumer segments [5]. Group 3: Market Performance and Data Tracking - The report provides data on various export figures, indicating a decline in China's zipper and seamless apparel exports by 4.4% and 12.4% respectively in December [5]. - Retail sales in the UK, France, the US, Japan, and Germany showed mixed results, with the UK experiencing a 5.1% increase in textile and apparel sales in December [5]. - The report tracks the performance of major companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like China Gold (+81.46%) and 哈森股份 (+41.22%) during the reporting period [20]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - The textile and apparel industry's latest PE (TTM) stands at 21.43X, with historical highs and lows of 57.80X and 14.44X respectively [16]. - The report includes a detailed valuation table for key companies, indicating their EPS, PE ratios, and expected growth for 2025 and 2026 [6]. Group 5: Convertible Bond Market - The report includes key information on convertible bonds in the textile and apparel sector, highlighting various bonds' premium rates and performance [26][27]. - The performance of convertible bonds showed fluctuations, with some bonds experiencing significant changes in their trading volumes [28].

| 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 1 月经济：数量篇 中电联口径截至 1 月 22 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长 4.6%（去年 12 月同比为 -8.5%）。春节错位可能是关键影响因素之一，去年春节在 1 月底；而今年春节在 2 月中下旬，1 月企业普遍处 于正常开工 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the real estate market, highlighting the significant debut of commercial real estate REITs, with the first batch of applications exceeding 32.1 billion RMB, accounting for 14% of the existing C-REITs market [5] - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy marks a pivotal shift, indicating a return to orderly market development and improved financing channels for real estate companies [16][20] - The report notes a strong year-on-year increase in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with new home transactions in 50 cities up 3.3% week-on-week and 37.2% year-on-year [5][9] Group 1: Central Policies - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy allows for a more market-oriented development of the real estate sector, which had previously constrained financing for weaker firms [16] - The central government is actively managing expectations and stabilizing the policy environment to facilitate a turning point in the real estate cycle [16] Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions saw a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, reflecting a recovery from last year's low base due to the Spring Festival [5][9] - Second-hand home transactions also showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%, driven by a favorable comparison to last year's figures [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new home supply has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 34.5%, which is unusual before the Spring Festival, suggesting increased developer confidence [5] - The second-hand market remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in visits and transactions, indicating sustained demand [5] Group 4: Land Market Performance - The land market showed weaker performance, with total land sales in 300 cities amounting to 12.7 billion RMB, down 20% week-on-week and 69% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a supply of 7.93 million square meters, with a land absorption rate of 51%, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [5] Group 5: Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with strong investment fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Jinmao and China Overseas, are leading the sector [5] - The property management sector also performed well, with a 2.6% increase, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5] Group 6: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs composite return index rose by 0.36%, with 41 out of 78 REITs showing gains, particularly in the renewable energy and highway sectors [5]

Price Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) reached a one-year high of 956 points as of January 30, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3% compared to December 2022[3] - The energy index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index surged by 21.7%[4] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 242.0 points, marking a month-on-month rise of 66.3%, the highest since March 2020[3] Commodity Prices - In the commodity price rankings for the week of January 26-30, 15 non-ferrous products saw price increases, with 8 of them rising over 5%, accounting for 36.4% of the monitored products[4] - Notable price increases included neodymium metal (11.14%), praseodymium oxide (10.07%), and neodymium oxide (9.69%)[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 8.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% compared to 3.0% in December[5] Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index for major cities showed mixed results, with Beijing and Guangzhou experiencing a narrowing decline of -0.5% and -1.0% respectively, while Shenzhen saw a slight increase of 0.4%[5] - The average listing prices for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 143.1, 180.3, 153.8, and 222.1 respectively, with varying month-on-month changes[5] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 10.3% month-on-month, driven by rising prices in battery cells and silicon wafers[7] - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 27.6% month-on-month, while the DRAM industry composite index (DXI) rose by 25.8%, reaching a historical high[7] Logistics and Transportation - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York indices recording changes of 2.6% and -3.4% respectively[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rebounded by 14.4% month-on-month, following a decline of -26.7% in December[9] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 5.8% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables fell by 0.2%[10] - The non-food price index (ICPI) recorded a slight decrease of -0.07% month-on-month, with transportation and communication services showing the highest increases[10]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 points to 49.3, primarily due to seasonal factors and a significant drop in consumer goods and high-energy industries, which fell by 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.0, down 0.5 points, while equipment manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3 points to 50.1[2] - The consumer goods and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 48.3 and 47.9, reflecting declines of 2.1 and 1.0 points respectively[2] Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - The automotive sector saw a significant decline, with retail sales of passenger cars dropping by 37% in January compared to the same period last year[2] - Brent crude oil prices rose from $61 per barrel at the end of 2025 to $71 per barrel by the end of January 2026, impacting the petrochemical and chemical industries negatively[2] - The non-ferrous and black metal sectors experienced increases of 4.0 and 2.0 points respectively, driven by global pricing expectations and pre-season stockpiling[2] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Construction Sector - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to lead in performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity range[5] - The construction sector's PMI fell by 4.0 points to 48.8, exceeding seasonal declines observed in previous years[6] - New orders in the construction sector decreased by 7.3 points, indicating a slowdown in demand[8] Group 4: Service Sector Trends - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 points to 49.5, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months[10] - Financial services, including monetary finance and capital market services, maintained high activity levels, with indices above 65[10] - The transportation and information services sectors saw declines in their PMIs, while residential services experienced a slight increase of 1.6 points[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 112.92 CNY and a fair value of 141.24 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue of approximately 60 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 93% in net profit [9][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its sales scale and maintaining a robust order backlog, supported by increased R&D investment and new product development [10]. - The infrared imaging business is anticipated to see substantial growth, driven by recovering demand in specialized fields and expanding overseas markets [11]. - The microwave RF business is also expected to grow significantly, with revenue projections showing a year-on-year increase of 21.95% in 2025, 60% in 2026, and 100% in 2027 [12]. Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue: 3,559 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 10,300 million CNY by 2027, with growth rates of 34.5% in 2023 and 30.4% in 2027 [3][12]. - Net profit: Expected to rise from 496 million CNY in 2023 to 2,274 million CNY in 2027, with a growth rate of 58.2% in 2023 and 39.9% in 2027 [3][12]. - EPS is projected to increase from 1.11 CNY in 2023 to 4.94 CNY in 2027 [3][12]. Business Segments - The infrared imaging segment is projected to generate revenues of 55 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 40.70% [14]. - The microwave RF segment is expected to achieve revenues of 3.50 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 21.95% [15]. - Overall, the company is positioned in a growth-oriented sector with significant technological barriers and potential for market expansion [16].