Investment Outlook - Investment in 2026 is expected to have the highest relative elasticity, with a potential growth rebound from a low base of -3.8% in 2025 to around 3%, indicating an elasticity of 6-7 percentage points[9] - Guangdong province plans to invest 1.05 trillion yuan in key projects for 2026, up from 1 trillion yuan in both 2025 and 2024, signaling a commitment to effective investment[10] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth rates for January and February are estimated at 4.91% and 4.59% respectively, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.75% for the first two months[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for the same period is projected at 4.39%[4] Market Trends - Global asset narratives are converging, with a shift towards "non-growth" assets and a return to "old economy" sectors, as evidenced by a 2.5% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average[13] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index has dropped to an extreme fear level of -210, indicating heightened market caution[14] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver have experienced high volatility, with gold prices averaging $1,948 per ounce, down 0.68% for the week, while silver prices fell 27.38%[15] - Domestic gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 98.22 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[34] Currency and Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased to 4.22%, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by June rising to 49.2%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, closing at 97.61, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.59% against the dollar[18] Sector Performance - Consumer sectors led the A-share market, with significant gains in food and beverage, while technology and resource sectors faced pressure[19] - The overall A-share index saw a decline of 1.49%, with nearly 60% of sectors recording losses, particularly in metals and electronics[22]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the price of ordinary electronic cloth has exceeded expectations, with significant price increases observed in recent months, suggesting a sustained high demand in the market [12][13] - Shanghai's initiative to purchase second-hand homes for rental purposes is expected to boost the supply of rental housing and stimulate the construction materials market [13][14] - The construction materials industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with potential for recovery as demand stabilizes and supply-side improvements take effect [23][25] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of ordinary electronic cloth has seen cumulative increases of 1-1.2 RMB/m due to supply-demand imbalances and rising copper prices, indicating a long-term bullish trend [12] - The Shanghai government has launched a program to acquire second-hand homes for rental purposes, focusing on small-sized units, which is anticipated to enhance the supply of rental properties and invigorate the construction materials sector [13] - Recent data shows a recovery in second-hand home transactions, with significant year-on-year increases, suggesting a potential rebound in the real estate market [14][15] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals and Company Performance - The construction materials sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with various sub-sectors like cement and fiberglass showing signs of recovery, supported by supply-side adjustments and improved market conditions [23][25] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials segment are demonstrating resilience, with improved revenue growth rates compared to the overall market, indicating strong operational capabilities [29] - Cement prices have recently decreased by 1%, but the overall market is expected to stabilize as companies implement price control measures and benefit from lower coal costs [25][26] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as Three Trees, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market recovery [23][25] - In the cement industry, companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and historical performance [25][26] - The fiberglass sector is also noted for its growth potential, with leading firms like China Jushi and Zhongtai Technology expected to capitalize on increasing demand for high-end electronic cloth [26][28]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 | [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | 本周猪价小幅回落，优选成本领先的龙头猪企 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/2 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of the AI industry and high-growth segments like gaming, suggesting that recent market corrections present better entry opportunities [10][13][17]. E-commerce Sector - The e-commerce sector remains constrained by market sentiment and macroeconomic weakness, with low growth and profit expectations for Q4 [10][13]. - Alibaba's Qianwen App launched a 3 billion yuan subsidy campaign, achieving over 10 million orders in 9 hours, indicating a competitive AI agent market [10][13]. - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for approximately 50 billion yuan reflects a strategic move to strengthen its position in instant retail [10][14]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent show strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving, particularly with the anticipated success of "Delta Action" [10][13][15]. - Bilibili's self-developed game "Shining! Luming" is set to release new products gradually in 2026, enhancing its product pipeline [10][15]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health leverage their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [10][15]. Short Video Sector - Kuaishou's main business remains stable, with its AI technology leading in commercialization, optimizing user engagement and conversion data [10][15]. Trendy Play + IP Sector - Pop Mart announced the establishment of its European headquarters in London, planning to open 27 new stores in Europe, which will create over 150 jobs [10][15]. Long Video Sector - Multiple platforms are releasing quality series, with a focus on investment opportunities in iQIYI and Mango Excellent Media, which are currently at low valuations [10][15]. Music Streaming - Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music reported stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to valuation adjustments [10][16]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is expected to maintain its performance driven by fundamentals, with continued recommendations for leading companies like Tencent and NetEase [10][17]. - New game reserves from companies like Perfect World and 37 Interactive Entertainment are anticipated to boost performance through product launches [10][17]. Advertising Sector - The adjustment of Shuhua will not affect the operational trends of Focus Media, with increased advertising investments expected from internet advertisers in 2026 [10][18]. AI Sector - AI is driving accelerated growth in overseas CSP cloud revenues and orders, with a new round of AI model and product iterations emerging [10][19]. - Recommendations include focusing on major cloud players like Google and Amazon, as well as domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent [10][19].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 普通电子布存供需缺口，步入涨价大周期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 持有 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 持有 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-08 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]谢璐 SAC 执证号：S0260514080004 SFC CE No. BMB592 -10% 2% 14% 26% 38% 50% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 建筑材料 沪深300 | 021-38003688 | | --- | | xielu@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 张乾 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522080003 | | 021-38003687 | | gzzhangqian@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，张乾并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 存款的流向 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 钟林楠 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260520110001 021-38003572 010-59136677 guolei@gf.com.cn zhonglinnan@gf.com.cn 请注意，钟林楠并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 近期存款搬家叙事再度升温，其中一个叙事逻辑是 2026 年有较多高息定存到期，在低利率环境下，这些定存 到期后会进行资产再配置，流向金融市场。本篇将就这一叙事做出一些拆解和探讨。 在前期报告《居民活动收支表的构建、分析与运用》中，我们曾对存款搬家叙事做了初步讨论： 从逻辑上讲，从存款搬家看股市或债市流动性是一个相对狭义的视角，它仅考虑了存款资产用于投资股票或债 券的规模，但实际上居民可支配收入+贷款获得的总收入扣掉消费、非 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 8.29 CNY and a fair value of 10.20 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recent increase in dye prices, which is expected to lead to a rise in dyeing fees for the company after the holiday season. The textile dyeing industry typically sees a peak in orders during March and April, suggesting a favorable outlook for the company's operations [1][6]. - The company operates in two main sectors: textile dyeing and gold jewelry processing, with the dyeing segment being the primary revenue contributor. The company employs a processing model where it charges fees for dyeing and finishing services [6]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will grow from 0.72 CNY in 2025 to 0.91 CNY in 2027, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [6]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 9,666 million CNY - 2024: 11,468 million CNY (growth rate of 18.6%) - 2025: 11,761 million CNY (growth rate of 2.6%) - 2026: 12,647 million CNY (growth rate of 7.5%) - 2027: 13,601 million CNY (growth rate of 7.5%) [2]. - The forecasted EBITDA is expected to increase from 1,126 million CNY in 2023 to 1,521 million CNY in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 685 million CNY in 2023 to 933 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 18.2% in 2026 [2]. Business Model and Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic dyeing industry and gold jewelry processing sector, with a dyeing capacity of 1.45 billion meters annually as of the first half of 2025 [6]. - The report notes that the company’s dyeing business is closely linked to the fluctuations in dye prices, which have been rising due to increased costs of raw materials [6]. - The company’s competitive edge in the international market is attributed to its efficient production capabilities and technological advantages, which are expected to support a recovery in order placements from overseas clients in 2026 [6].

——周末五分钟全知道（2 月第 2 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 SFC CE No. BVH021 010-59136616 liuchenming@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 创业板 50 指数：龙头出海， | 2026-02-04 | | --- | --- | | 链动全球:指数研选系列报告 | | | "沃什预期"与美元潮落： | 2026-02-01 | | 全球股市定价锚的切换与重 | | | 构:——港股&海外周聚焦（2 | | | 月第 1 期） | | | 中美最新财报中的行业配置 | 2026-02-01 | | 线索 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 18600442697 bilulu@gf.com.cn [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 天时地利人和：新一轮上涨周期 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / ...

Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the advantage of imported coal narrowing further [7][81] - The overall profitability of the coal mining industry is expected to improve in 2026 after a significant decline in 2025 [7][84] Market Dynamics - The CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 698 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2 RMB/ton [13][82] - The average daily consumption of coal in coastal power plants is 208,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [22][28] - The coal inventory at major ports decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [22][28] Industry Insights - The coal mining industry saw a profit total of 352 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 42% [7][84] - The expected supply-demand balance in 2026 is anticipated to support coal prices, with a significant reduction in supply growth [7][84] - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to enhance the fulfillment rate due to increased market factors [84][85] Key Companies - Major companies with stable dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [7] - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7] - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy Co., and Baofeng Energy [7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous influx of incremental funds into the market, highlighting investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector [1][7] - The industry rating remains at "Buy," indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4065.58 points, down 1.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.11% [12] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.38% decrease [7] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The performance of listed insurance companies is expected to continue high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [18] - China Ping An Group increased its stake in China Life H shares, indicating positive industry trends [18] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to show better-than-expected performance for some insurance companies due to a low base in the first half of 2025 [18] Securities Sector - A significant increase in new accounts was observed in January 2026, with 491.58 million new A-share accounts opened, a 213% year-on-year increase [19] - The balance of margin trading reached a historical high, providing strong support for interest income in the securities industry [22] - The Hong Kong IPO market is active, with 384 companies applying for listings as of February 6, 2026, and a daily trading volume of 2202 billion yuan in January, a 94% year-on-year increase [24][28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the insurance sector, including China Ping An (A/H), China Life (A/H), and New China Life (A/H) [18] - In the securities sector, recommended stocks include Guotai Junan (AH), CICC (H), and Huatai Securities (AH) due to their potential for performance improvement [7][18]