Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Google (GOOGL) with a current price of $322.86 and a fair value of $362.78 [4]. Core Insights - Google's cloud revenue is accelerating, and the capital expenditure guidance is aggressive, raising concerns about the return on investment (ROI) from AI infrastructure investments [5][12]. - The company reported strong revenue and net profit for Q4 2025, with revenue of $113.83 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.15%, and a year-on-year growth of 17.99% [5][13]. - The cloud segment showed significant growth, with Q4 2025 cloud revenue reaching $17.664 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [5][23]. - The advertising revenue growth is mixed, with strong performance in search ads but a slowdown in YouTube ad revenue [5][20]. - Despite concerns over capital expenditures, the financial pressure is manageable, and the returns from AI investments are promising [5][63]. Summary by Sections Q4 2025 Performance Review - Revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, with operating income at $35.934 billion and a net profit of $34.455 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.84% [5][14]. - The cloud segment's operating profit margin improved significantly to 30.1%, up from 23.7% in Q3 2025 [5][23]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were $27.9 billion, a 95.1% increase year-on-year, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately $180 billion for 2026 [5][24]. Business Analysis - Google's advertising business remains a solid revenue foundation, with search ads contributing significantly to overall revenue [5][42]. - The cloud business is positioned as a new growth engine, driven by strong demand for AI services, with projected revenue growth rates of 46.1% for 2026 [5][63]. - The Other Bets segment is still in a loss phase, but investments in AI and other innovative sectors are expected to yield long-term growth [5][57]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts Google's net profit for 2026-2028 to be $139.7 billion, $163.5 billion, and $196.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28x, 24x, and 20x [5][66]. - The overall revenue growth is projected at 17.8% for 2026, with operating margins improving gradually [5][66].

Core Viewpoints - The communication industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle due to significant improvements in supply and demand relationships, particularly in the fiber optic cable sector [1][14]. Industry Overview - In January 2026, the average price of G.652.D single-mode fiber in China exceeded 40 CNY per core kilometer, reaching a seven-year high, with some manufacturers quoting prices as high as 50 CNY per core kilometer. The price increase in January alone exceeded 75% [7][14]. - Demand is surging from data centers and special products, with a notable recovery trend in telecom demand. AI data center requirements are driving both volume and price increases for fiber optic cables, as they are widely used in data center scale-out scenarios [15][16]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a rapid increase in demand for fiber optic drones, with deployment expected by mid-2024. These drones typically require fiber optics as consumables, indicating a significant demand increase [15][16]. Supply Dynamics - The utilization rate of optical preforms remains high, with AI and special products occupying traditional G.652.D fiber production capacity. The production of optical preforms is the longest cycle in the fiber optic cable industry, and most capacity is controlled by leading domestic and international manufacturers [16]. - The production capacity of major fiber optic manufacturers is currently at full capacity, making it difficult to alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the short term, which is likely to keep prices high [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the improving supply-demand relationship in the fiber optic cable sector and the layout of high-value products. Both data communication and telecom demand are expected to benefit fiber manufacturers, with prices likely to continue rising in the short term [17]. - There is a significant increase in demand for fiber optics from data centers in North America, Europe, and the Middle East, with domestic manufacturers expected to gain market share due to limited capacity from existing overseas suppliers [17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the fiber optic cable sector, including Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, Hengtong Optic-Electric Co., Ltd., Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd., and FiberHome Technologies Group [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [3] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, funds increased their allocation in the cement and glass sectors, while the overall allocation in the building materials sector remains low at 0.51%, with a low allocation of 0.49% [19][23] - The industry shows signs of profit recovery, with leading companies demonstrating resilience [23] - The fund's strategy continues to focus on core industries that counteract internal competition, particularly in waterproofing and glass [41] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q4 2025, the fund's allocation in the building materials sector is 0.51%, up by 0.046 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low allocation compared to the overall market [19] - The allocation by sub-sector includes cement at 0.13%, glass at 0.07%, and other materials at 0.02% [23] - The fund increased its holdings in all sub-sectors except for consumer materials, new materials, and glass fibers [23] Individual Stock Performance - The top ten companies by fund holdings as of Q4 2025 include: - 菲利华 (44.5 billion RMB) - 东方雨虹 (22.4 billion RMB) - 三棵树 (20.5 billion RMB) - 中材科技 (16.1 billion RMB) - 海螺水泥 (13.7 billion RMB) [41] - The top ten companies by fund holding percentage include: - 菲利华 (8.68%) - 东方雨虹 (8.61%) - 三棵树 (6.00%) [41] Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the building materials sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" based on their projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary [Table_Title] ] 春节前后，港股如何反应？ ——港股市场策略展望 报告摘要： （4）港股天量 IPO 对市场影响不大，影响主要在于 IPO 过后 6 个月 的解禁高峰。典型的例如 11 年年中、15 年下半年、19 年 3 月、21 年 二季度、22 年年中，解禁潮都与港股下跌出现在相似时间段。26 年 3 月主要是有色金属（紫金黄金国际、南山铝业国际）+茶饮（蜜雪冰城） 的解禁潮，中大型规模公司的解禁规模 872 亿港元，高于去年年末的 解禁小高峰。由于港股通账户并不能够参与打新，享受稀缺性公司的 上市红利，却需要承受限售股解禁带来的风险，这可能确实是南向资 金对于 2026 年港股的主要担忧之一。 | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The thermal power sector shows strong performance with stable capacity pricing contributing to profitability [1] - The average earnings growth for 31 public utility companies is projected to increase by 28% year-on-year for 2025, with notable growth from thermal power companies [7] - The introduction of a new capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance revenue for thermal power plants, with an estimated increase of 0.016 CNY per kWh in 2026 compared to 2025 [17][21] - The shift towards capacity and auxiliary service revenues is redefining the profitability model for thermal power, moving away from traditional energy pricing [7] Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Earnings Forecast - 31 companies reported earnings forecasts, with significant growth from thermal power companies such as Jinkong Power (+446%), Jiantou Energy (+253%), and Jingneng Power (+104%) [15] - Water power companies like Qianyuan Power saw a nearly 175% increase, while leading hydropower company Yangtze Power maintained a steady 5% growth [15] 2. Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The new capacity pricing mechanism will raise the standard to at least 165 CNY per kW per year, with some provinces like Gansu and Yunnan increasing it to 330 CNY per kW per year [17][21] - The overall capacity compensation market is projected to reach 188 billion CNY in 2026, significantly boosting thermal power revenue [21] 3. Industry Trends - The report highlights a transition in the thermal power sector towards a model that emphasizes capacity and auxiliary services, which are becoming core profit sources [7] - The focus on market capitalization management and dividend commitments from companies like Guodian Power is expected to enhance the valuation of thermal power assets [7] 4. Recent Policy Developments - Recent announcements regarding local electricity pricing mechanisms indicate a trend towards more competitive pricing structures in the market [25][26] - The implementation of new trading rules in various provinces aims to stabilize and enhance the efficiency of electricity markets [25][26] 5. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Recent data shows stable coal prices at Qinhuangdao, with a slight decrease in inventory levels at northern ports [31] - The report notes fluctuations in natural gas prices, with domestic prices remaining higher than at the beginning of the year while international prices have shown volatility [31]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 增长格局延续，资产范式渐变：2026 年海外宏观环境展望 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 回顾 2025 年，全球宏观面有五大特征：一是实际增长率大致稳定，IMF 预计 2025 年全球经济增速为 3.2%1， 和 2024 年区别不大，关税冲击被进口抢跑和 AI 投资部分对冲，是韧性的主要来源；二是不同经济体分化，美 国实际增速有所下滑，欧日小幅反弹，新兴市场维持韧性增速；三是通胀和货币政策分化，但宽松为主，欧元 区上半年降息、美国下半年降息、日本加息、新兴市场多 ...

[Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 如何看白酒板块上涨持续性？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-08 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|食品饮料 [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 食品饮料 沪深300 | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BWC944 | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 周源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040003 | fzzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | [相关研究： Table_DocReport] | 食品饮料行业:金星啤酒"中式 ...

Investment Outlook - Investment in 2026 is expected to have the highest relative elasticity, with a potential growth rebound from a low base of -3.8% in 2025 to around 3%, indicating an elasticity of 6-7 percentage points[9] - Guangdong province plans to invest 1.05 trillion yuan in key projects for 2026, up from 1 trillion yuan in both 2025 and 2024, signaling a commitment to effective investment[10] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth rates for January and February are estimated at 4.91% and 4.59% respectively, with a cumulative growth rate of 4.75% for the first two months[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for the same period is projected at 4.39%[4] Market Trends - Global asset narratives are converging, with a shift towards "non-growth" assets and a return to "old economy" sectors, as evidenced by a 2.5% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average[13] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index has dropped to an extreme fear level of -210, indicating heightened market caution[14] Commodity Performance - Gold and silver have experienced high volatility, with gold prices averaging $1,948 per ounce, down 0.68% for the week, while silver prices fell 27.38%[15] - Domestic gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 98.22 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment[34] Currency and Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased to 4.22%, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by June rising to 49.2%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated, closing at 97.61, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.59% against the dollar[18] Sector Performance - Consumer sectors led the A-share market, with significant gains in food and beverage, while technology and resource sectors faced pressure[19] - The overall A-share index saw a decline of 1.49%, with nearly 60% of sectors recording losses, particularly in metals and electronics[22]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the price of ordinary electronic cloth has exceeded expectations, with significant price increases observed in recent months, suggesting a sustained high demand in the market [12][13] - Shanghai's initiative to purchase second-hand homes for rental purposes is expected to boost the supply of rental housing and stimulate the construction materials market [13][14] - The construction materials industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with potential for recovery as demand stabilizes and supply-side improvements take effect [23][25] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of ordinary electronic cloth has seen cumulative increases of 1-1.2 RMB/m due to supply-demand imbalances and rising copper prices, indicating a long-term bullish trend [12] - The Shanghai government has launched a program to acquire second-hand homes for rental purposes, focusing on small-sized units, which is anticipated to enhance the supply of rental properties and invigorate the construction materials sector [13] - Recent data shows a recovery in second-hand home transactions, with significant year-on-year increases, suggesting a potential rebound in the real estate market [14][15] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals and Company Performance - The construction materials sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with various sub-sectors like cement and fiberglass showing signs of recovery, supported by supply-side adjustments and improved market conditions [23][25] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials segment are demonstrating resilience, with improved revenue growth rates compared to the overall market, indicating strong operational capabilities [29] - Cement prices have recently decreased by 1%, but the overall market is expected to stabilize as companies implement price control measures and benefit from lower coal costs [25][26] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as Three Trees, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market recovery [23][25] - In the cement industry, companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and historical performance [25][26] - The fiberglass sector is also noted for its growth potential, with leading firms like China Jushi and Zhongtai Technology expected to capitalize on increasing demand for high-end electronic cloth [26][28]